Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| July 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| July 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Monsoon surplus of June being carried into July
The heavy monsoon over Central and West India and adjoining NorthWest India is set to continue with a fresh rain-generating system forecast to form in the Bay of Bengal. The surplus run of monsoon in June will now have extended into July, usually rainiest of the four monsoon months (34 per cent of the total). June contributes only 14 per cent of the total but this year saw the heaviest downpours since 2001, with rainfall registering 32 per cent above average. July had failed farmers often during the past few years, putting the crops under heavy stress. But entering the last lap, it has mostly been above normal until now, having dipped below only a couple of times. The monsoon is forecast to take off later into August, which is the second rainiest of the season, accounting for 31 per cent. Thus, the 2013 monsoon is promising to be the strongest on show in recent times. (Source: Business Line)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 24, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

20091 5991 59.26 105.39 1319.7

-1.04 -1.44 -0.85 -1.72 -1.15

0.71 0.29 -0.13 -1.02 3.27

8.36 7.16 -0.94 10.73 3.36

18.75 16.81 5.47 19.08 -16.26

.Source: Reuters

Cotton output to be near cab estimated, pegged at 337 lakh bales

The Indian Cotton Federation has estimated the final cotton crop level at 337 lakh bales (LB) for the Oct 2012-Sep 2013 crop year, which is close to the 340 LB estimated by the Cotton Advisory Board. Central India is expected to lead cotton production with 181 LB, followed by south India with 93 LB. Amongst the states, Gujarat is expected to produce 87 LB; Maharashtra, 76 LB; Andhra Pradesh, 75 LB and Haryana, 24 LB. (Source:
Financial Express)

To check onion price rise, Govt may look at ban on exports

With onion prices continuing to rise across the country, the Government may be compelled to consider placing a temporary ban on exports among other policy intervention. An inter-Ministerial team of senior officials from the Ministries of Commerce, Agriculture and Consumer Affairs will meet soon to take stock of the onion situation in the country to see if market intervention was required, said a Commerce Department official. A representative from NAFED, the Governments agriculture procurement and marketing agency, will also attend the meeting. The possibility of selling subsidised onions through NAFED mobile vans is also likely to be considered, the official added. NAFED has in the past come to the rescue of the Government by providing partial relief to consumers by selling onions at low prices when retail prices shoot up. Although Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar has openly voiced his views against banning onion exports, the Commerce and Consumer Affairs Ministries are yet to take a view. (Source: Business Line)

Palm Oil tumbles to lowest since 2009 as global supplies climb

Palm, the most-used cooking oil, sank to the lowest level since 2009 as global supplies expand to a record and demand rises at the slowest pace in more than a decade. Soybean oil dropped to the lowest since 2010. World stockpiles of the oil used in everything from candy to biofuel are set to surge 21 percent to a record 9.5 million tons by the end of the 2013-2014 year, as demand expands 4.4 percent, the least in 12 years, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show. Rising supplies of the more expensive soybean oil are adding to the glut, with U.S. growers set to reap their biggest-ever crop starting September. Palm production, accounting for 35 percent of cooking oil supply, will expand 5 percent to 58.1 million tons in 2013-2014, USDA data show. Output doubled over the previous decade, led by Indonesia and Malaysia. The predicted stockpiles are equal to 17 percent of demand, the highest level since 1989. (Source: Bloomberg)

Chhattisgarh govt bans rice transportation from state

The Chhattisgarh government has banned transportation of rice from the state, fearing a shortage and subsequent price escalation. The decision came following rice millers' reported reluctance over custom milling of paddy provided by the state government. Under the practice, the rice would be returned after the milling to the Food Corporation of India and the state government. A fee was set by the state for this; the government also bore the transportation cost of paddy supply to the mills. According to food department officials, a little more than 2.5 million tonnes of paddy procured in the kharif marketing season 2012-13 was still in the godowns. The government had procured a record 7.3 mt from farmers this year. The officials blamed millers for the delay. Last year, the government had procured six mt and by end-June, 98 per cent of custom milling was done. (Source: Business Standard)

Monsoon rain signals shift in rainfall pattern: Experts

Andhra Pradesh has received its 'best' seasonal rainfall in the last decade so far, which according to climate change experts means monsoon this year may have also brought a shift in the rainfall pattern in the state for good. While monsoon during 2007, 2009 and 2010 was good overall, the state didn't receive continuous rains like it has happened so far this year in the June-July period, weather experts said. Senior meteorologist RV Subba Rao said several low pressure areas formed over Bay of Bengal is the reason behind heavy rainfall so early into the monsoon. (Source: Times of
India)

Brazil sugar production quickens in July after wet June

Cane mills in center-south Brazil churned out sugar in early July after wet conditions in June slowed crushing of the record crop that is the source of half the world's sugar exports, Brazil's industry association Unica said on Wednesday. Brazil's main cane region produced 2.4 mn tons of sugar in the first half of July, up 60 percent from the 1.5 million produced in the second half of June. Sugar output in the first half of July was not fully up to speed yet, with mills' sugar output 9 percent behind the 2.63 mn tons produced in the same fortnight a year ago. Mills' ethanol output in the first half of July was 1.77 billion liters, up 38 percent from late June and 10 percent from the same two weeks a year ago. (Source: Reuters)

Argentina trade surplus up 26.9% in June as grains and oilseed exports get moving
Exports grew by 8% from a year earlier, to 7.55bn, reflecting a stronger grains harvest after last year's drought. Imports grew a more modest 5% to 6.4bn, according to Indec. However in the first half of the year balance, imports were up 11% and exports 5%. A widening trade surplus is good news for the government, which needs to boost dollar supplies on the tightly controlled currency market. Raw material exports rose 20% in June as the corn and soybean harvests advanced. (Source: mercopress.com)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| July 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana Futures continued to slide downwards during the first half of the day on account of lack of buying interest and ample supplies. During the later part however, prices strengthened due to short coverings. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 1.23% and 0.29% lower yesterday. The Pulses body may seek hike in margins on short positions of chana to arrest the fall in prices. (Source: Cogencis Commodity Wire) Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Chana signifincalty higher at record 8.8 mn tn in the current season 2012-13. With a significant hike in MSP of kharif Pulses for 2013-14 season, area under cultivation is expected to increase in the coming season too. Further good monsoon may not only support good yield of kharif pulses, but also ensure favorable soil condition for sowing of Rabi pulses vizChana and Moong. As per the data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under kharif th Pulses stood at 31.62 lakh ha as on 19 July 2013, which is up by 54 percent compared to the same period last year. As per official data released by Gujarat Government, total pulses sowing nd in the state as on 22 July 2013 stood at 3.63 la ha, an increase of 57% from the corresponding period last year. The CCEA declared the MSP for kharif pulses. The MSP of Tur has been raised by ` 450 to ` 4,300/qtl, moong by ` 100 to ` 4,500/qtl while Urad has been kept unchanged at ` 4,300/qtl.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX Aug'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on July 24, 2013 % change Last 2836 2746 Prev day -1.23 -0.29 WoW -8.93 -6.88 MoM -12.13 -15.46
Source: Reuters

YoY -42.70 -43.02

Spread Matrix
Closing 2836.35 2746 2794 2870 20-Aug-13 -90.35 0 -

as on July 24, 2013 20-Sep-13 -42.35 48 0 18-Oct-13 33.65 124 76 0 as on July 23, 2013 Stocks as on 22nd July 82715 60230 11927 154872 Qty in Process 160 30 30 220

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 23rd July 82264 60057 11927 154248 Qty in Process 160 30 30 220

309

111

938

1358

Demand supply scenario

According to fourth advance Estimates released on 22 July 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at record 18.45 mn tn compared to the third advance estimates of 18 mn tn and 17.09 mn tn produced in 2011-12 seaosn. Kharif Pulses witnessed a marginal decline in the output which was offset by a considerable rise in Rabi output, especially Chana. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. As per the estimates, Chana output is pegged at a record 8.8 mn tn compared with its third advance estimates of 8.49 million tonnes and a previous record of 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11.
nd

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX August contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana prices are expected to continue to decline today on the back of an upward revision in chana output by the ministry of agriculture. Lack of buying interest and huge supplies may also keep sentiments weak in the near term. Recovery in the prices may be seen in the month of August as demand will emerge ahead of festivals.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Aug Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for July 25, 2013 Resistance 2775-2805

2685-2715

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| July 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures continued to trade on a negative note on the back of excess rains in the soybean growing belts of central India and higher sowing figures of 2013-14 crops. Expectations of good yield have raised hopes of record soy output in the coming season. Bearish international markets also added to the downside pressure. Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Soybean output signifincalty higher at record 14.6 mn tn in the current season 201213 compared with 12.2 mn tn in 2011-12. Total nine Oilseeds production is pegged at 31 MT in 2012-13, slightly higher than 29.79 MT achieved in the previous year. Monsoon rains slowed its pace last week, but still they were in excess in the soy growing belts of central India. As per the IMD, Cumulative th rainfall as on 17 July in the central India (major soy belt), were 42 th percent above the LPA, while in the week ending 17 July they rains were recorded up by 45 percent in Central India. As per the data released by ministry of agriculture, Oilseeds were th planted in 149.82 lakh ha as on 19 July, 2013, which is up by 37.7 percent compared to the same period last year. International Markets Soybean August futures on the CBOT traded on a bearish note and settled sharply lower by 4.79% as cash bids collapsed in US Midwest and lack of buying interest. Demand from processors as well as livestock producers is weak as they are waiting for the new harvest. Selling of the old crop by farmer also added to the downside pressure. According to the USDA Crop Progress Report released on Monday, the USDA rated the U.S. the crop is rated as 64% good-to-excellent, 28% fair, and 8% very poor-poor. Last week's good/excellent rating came in at 67%. USDA reported that 8% of the crop is setting pods vs. 33% a year ago and a 19% five-year average. Also, 46% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. 78% five-year average. Old-crop soybean inventories are expected to drop to a nine-year low by Aug. 31, 2013 due to last year's drought-reduced harvest and strong demand from China and domestic buyers.

Market Highlights

as on July 24, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -2.52 -9.69 -1.69 -4.79 -1.35 -2.60 -20.70 -5.75 -2.69 -5.06

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX Oct '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT Aug'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3401 3005 1393 3414 3228

MoM -12.53 -19.97 -7.90 -2.69 -7.75

YoY -28.7 -36.5 -15.6 -23.0 -26.2

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3401 Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 3004.5 3012 3035.5 0 7.5 0 18-Oct-13 -396.5 20-Nov-13 -389

as on July 24, 2013 20-Dec-13 -365.5 31 23.5 0 as on July 24, 2013 20-Sep-13 -155.75 30 0 18-Oct-13 -130.75 55 25 0 as on July 23, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 as on July 23, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 71 0 0 71

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 3413.75 3228 3258 3283 20-Aug-13 -185.75 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 23rd July 1951 0 210 2161 Stocks as on 23rd July 3070 4458 19017 644 63750 3569 1839 96347 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 91 0 40 131 Stocks as on 22nd July 13056 587 351 13994 Stocks as on 22nd July 3040 4549 20779 634 63828 5283 1981 100094

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Outlook
Soybean is expected to trade on a weak to bearish note tracking weak international markets. Prices may also decline on expectations of good yield and early start to harvesting in the domestic markets.

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed traded on a bearish note yesterday and hit a fresh contract low as abundant supplies in the domestic markets coupled with comfortable stocks of edible oil pressurized prices. Weak oilseeds also added to the downside pressure. Further, Agriculture ministry in its fourth advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.82 mn tn, up by 18.4% compared to 2011-12 season.

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Overall trend in mustard seed remain bearish amidst higher production this season as well as weak oilseeds. However, demand at lower levels may restrict sharp fall in the prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 25, 2013 Support 2960-2980 3150-3190 Resistance 3030-3055 3270-3310
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| July 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil traded on a negative note yesterday on account of comfortable stocks of imported edible oil. Weakness in soy oil on the CBOT also added to the downside pressure. Spot as well as futures settled 0.82% and 0.97% lower yesterday. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 3.2% to 947591 tn in June, supported by sunflower and soy oil imports ahead of Ramadan. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on May 1 stood at 670,000 tn, the trade body said, off a record of 930,000 tn on March 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 669.15 651.05 44.26 2310 496.70 Prev day -0.82 -0.97 -1.16 -1.53 -1.15

as on July 24, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTAugust'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia August '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW -2.90 -5.75 -3.34 1.45 0.55

MoM -5.35 -5.76 -6.92 -3.51 -1.49

YoY -14.86 -17.76 -14.19 -20.29 -12.38

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 669.15 651.05 633.55 613.6 20-Aug-13 -18.1 0 20-Sep-13 -35.6 -17.5 0 -

as on July 24, 2013 18-Oct-13 -55.55 -37.45 -19.95 0 as on July 24, 2013

Outlook
Ref soy oil is expected to trade lower today on the back of comfortable stock position of imported edible oil coupled with weak international markets. However expectations of a weak Rupee today may limit the downside and support prices at lower levels.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 30-Sept-13 Closing 496.7 491.9 483.1 31-Jul-13 0 31-Aug-13 -4.8 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO traded on a negative note tracking weak international markets coupled with a sharp appreciation in the Rupee. Malaysian palm oil futures have declined to the lowest level this year and have spurred demand for most consumed cooking oil. Also, festive demand restricted a sharp fall in the prices. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from July 1 to 25 fell 7 percent to 1,085,392 tonnes from 1,167,266 tonnes shipped during June 1 to 25. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for August, unchanged as against 10.5% for July. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased by 0.29% against May, while end stocks declined by 9.4%.Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-15 declined 22.8% at 547,857 tn as against 709,860 tn during June 1-15. Exports in June rose 7 percent due to Ramadan demand. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports declined 20.7 per cent in June to 296, 230 tn, from a record high 373,837 tonnes in May as overall weakness in the Rupee made imports expensive.

30-Sept-13 -13.6 -8.8 0 NCDEX August contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Outlook
CPO is expected to trade on a negative note today tracking weak edible oils. Weak KLCE may also add to the downside pressure. However, lower level demand coupled with expectations of weakness in the Rupee may support prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Aug NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 25, 2013

Source: Telequote

Support 645-648 484-488

Resistance 654-658 496-500

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| July 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera August Futures declined for the fourth consecutive day and settled 0.64% lower on higher than expected arrivals coupled with higher production last year. However, robust overseas demand supported prices in the spot and settled marginally higher by 0.16%. Good rains in the main jeera growing regions have increased the moisture content of the soil, improving prospects of a better sowing in the coming season. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. According to IBIS, India exported 9462.64 tn of jeera in June. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam &USA. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1% Jeera of Indian origin is being offered for Singapore at $2,350/tn (FOB Mumbai) while for Europe at $2,750-2,850/tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13626 13263 5639 5570 Prev day -0.18 -0.64 -0.16 -3.00

as on July 24, 2013 % Change WoW -0.63 -0.75 -1.65 -3.57 MoM -1.00 -2.50 -1.10 -6.64 YoY -14.40 -17.60 1.30 -11.08

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Aug Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 13626.3 13262.5 13510 13745 20-Aug-13 -363.8 0 20-Sep-13 -116.3 247.5 0 -

as on July 24, 2013 18-Oct-13 118.7 482.5 235 0 as on July 24, 2013 20-Aug-13 -68.5 0 20-Sep-13 -8.5 60 0 18-Oct-13 53.5 122 62 0 as on July 23, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 22nd July Process 1460 5985 7445 8109 NCDEX August contract 6 6 12 50

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 5,000 bags on Wednesday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 5638.5 5570 5630 5692

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera may trade on a negative note extending yesterdays losses on account of higher supplies and good rains in the jeera sowing regions. However, overseas demand may support prices at lower levels. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 23rd July 1636 5217 6853 8159 Qty in Process 0 190 190 99

Turmeric
Turmeric futures traded on a negative note yesterday and settled 3% lower as overseas on account of huge stocks coupled with good sowing progress and weak local buying. However, overseas demand limited the downside. Sowing in Andhra Pradesh is higher than last year but lower than the normal sowing.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode mandi were reported at 1,000 bags and 4,000 bags respectively on Wednesday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP th is reported at 0.35 lakh ha as on 17 July, as against 0.31 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.41 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric prices is expected to trade with a negative bias as the ongoing sowing coupled with good monsoon progress as well as huge carryover stocks may pressurize prices. However, overseas demand coupled with declining arrivals in the spot may support prices.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX August contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Aug Futures Turmeric NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for July 25, 2013

Support 13070-13160 5400-5484 Resistance 13360-13450 5650-5740
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| July 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
After witnessing short coverings on Tuesday, Sugar resumed to decline and settled 0.1% lower. Prices have declined over the past few weeks on the back of ample supplies coupled with sluggish demand in the domestic markets. Expectations of recovery in the cane yield due to improving monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka also exerted downside pressure on the sugar prices. However, export orders as well as an increase in the import duty supported prices at lower levels. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation. However, the same didnt reflect in the market as supplies are significantly higher. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 48.4 lakh ha as compared to 50.04 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 3022 `/qtl 474.6 $/tonne 358.67 $/tonne -1.22 -0.08 -0.10 Last 3053

as on July 24, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.32 -0.67 1.85 3.24 0.37 MoM YoY 0.20 -12.49 0.37 -7.11 -5.11 -9.58 -25.63 -31.29

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 3053.2 3022 3041 3075 20-Aug-13 -31.2 0 20-Sep-13 -12.2 19 0 -

as on July 24, 2013 18-Oct-13 21.8 53 34 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon may curb some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 23rd July 2548 5839 21 923 9331 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0 Stocks as on 22nd July 2548 6017 21 923 9509

as on July 20, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX August contract

Global Sugar Updates

ICE Sugar Futures settled 1.22% lower on Wednesday on the back of increase in sugar production in Brazil in first half of July. Production rose 60% to 2.4 mn tn in July as against 1.5 mn tn in second half of June. Prices, in the long term have declined on account of abundant supplies from Brazil. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 88.95 lakh tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1 through June, up 33 percent from 66.9 lakh tn a year ago. Also, Mills have used 58.1 percent of the cane crush for ethanol since the start of the season - up sharply from 53.82 percent at this time last year with the rest used for sugar.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar Futures may continue to decline as sluggish demand, higher supplies and expectations of improvement in the cane output may continue to mount pressure on the prices. However, good export orders coupled with an increase in import duty and festive season demand may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Aug NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for July 25, 2013 Support 3005-3014 Resistance 3031-3040

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| July 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
After witnessing short coverings on Tuesday, cotton continued with its downward trend on account of higher planting and above average rains so far in so far in the country. NCDEX Kapas and MCX Cotton settled 0.66% and 0.36% lower on Wednesday. Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Cotton output at 34 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) in 2012-13, lower than the record 35.2 million bales in the previous year. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the th seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) till 14 July is reported at 331.15, down 1.48 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 975 19560 86.16 93.2

as on July 24, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.66 -2.11 -0.36 1.98 0.17 2.49 -0.32 1.53 MoM YoY -2.11 #N/A 0.31 9.09 3.83 22.58 1.47 9.84
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 19560 19990 19550 31-Jul-13 0

as on July 24, 2013 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 430 0 -10 -440 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting was reported higher at 100.55 la ha as on 19 July 2013 as against 83.74 la ha during the same period last year. A considerable increase in cotton acreage is observed in Gujarat wherein sowing was reported at 22.71 la ha on 12 July 2013, up from 8.6 la ha last year. Similarly, sowing in Rajasthan and AP was seen at 3.29 la ha and 13.2 la ha respectively. In Maharashtra, however, cotton sowing was reported at 28.95 la ha which is less as compared to the sowing here during the same period last year which was 33.6 la ha.
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Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 23rd July 5000 1800 104000 18600 0 100 129500

as on July 23, 2013

Stocks as on 22nd July 5000 1800 111400 21500 900 100 140700 NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
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Technical Chart - Kapas

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton was marginally up by 0.17% on Wednesday, supported by a sense of tightening U.S. supplies but capped as signs of slowing economic growth in China raised worry of reduced demand from the world's top textile market. The USDA monthly report increased its forecast for global stocks to 94.34mn bales from its previous forecast of 92.49 mn bales. The report also reduced US export estimates for 2012-13 crop year. ICAC has lowered projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX July contract

Outlook
Cotton prices may trade on a mixed note with a negative bias tracking higher sowing and good monsoon. However, improved buying spurred by lower prices in the domestic markets may restrict sharp fall in the prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX July Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for July 25, 2013 Support 968-971 19800-19890 Resistance 979-984 20100-20200
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Thursday| July 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Abundant supplies and expectations of higher production amid ample rains have exerted downside pressure on the Guar complex. Early sowing this season will also ensure early harvesting of guar crop thereby leading to smooth supplies in the physical markets. Guar seed as well as Guar gum October Futures settled 1.42% and 1.73% lower on Wednesday. Overall trend in guar, since the relaunch of the futures contract, remained bearish. Higher production last year and comparatively lower exports have resulted into higher supplies this year. With early and above normal monsoon so far, prospects for next years crop are also strong.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut `/qtl 4860 `/qtl 17156 `/qtl 13650 `/qtl -1.73 1.00 -1.42 Last Prev day 6161 1.33

as on July 24, 2013 % change WoW -11.67 -30.67 -11.90 -32.63 MoM -20.03 -34.68 -21.21 -36.54 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

During the last week, rains increased its intensity over areas growing soybean, groundnut and cotton while they eased in the northwest and the northeast regions. However, cumulative rainfall continues to remain above average. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 22 July, 2013 stood at 12.77 lakh hectares compared with 10.15 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year. Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and with attractive returns, acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.
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Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 6161.1 4860 4810 4830 18-Oct-13 -1301.1 0 20-Nov-13 -1351.1 -50 0 -

as on July 24, 2013 20-Dec-13 -1331.1 -30 20 0 as on July 24, 2013 20-Nov-13 -3636.4 -130 0 20-Dec-13 -3326.4 180 310 0 as on July 23, 2013 Stocks as on 22nd July 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 17156.4 13650 13520 13830 18-Oct-13 -3506.4 0 -

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Stocks as on 23rd July 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar seed and guar gum prices may trade with upward bias during the intraday as traders may cover short position considering supplies to decline at such levels. However, if the current pace of rains continues and sowing increase significantly, may see further downside over the short term.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 25, 2013 Support 4720-4790 4720-4790 13300-13480 13340-13520 Resistance 4930-5010 4930-5010 13830-14000 13860-14030
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com