Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 23, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 23, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
India's foodgrain production estimated at 255.36 MT in 2012-13
India produced 255.36 million tonnes (MT) of foodgrains in 2012-13 as compared to 259.29 MT in the previous year, according to official estimates. The 4th advance estimates of foodgrain production for 201213 released by the Ministry of Agriculture said rice production in the year was estimated at 104.40 MT and wheat at 92.46 MT. The statement said production of coarse cereals was estimated at 40.06 MT, maize at 22.23 MT, pulses at 18.45 MT, oilseeds at 31.01 MT and sugarcane at 338.96 MT. The production of tur was estimated at 3.07 MT, urad at 1.9 MT, moong at 1.2 MT and gram at 8.88 MT. Production of soyabean was estimated at 14.68 MT, groundnut at 4.75 MT and rapeseed & mustard at 7.82 MT. Production of cotton was estimated at 34 million bales (of 170 kg each), the statement added. (Source: PIB, GOI)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 22, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

20159 6032 59.73 106.91 1336.4

0.05 0.04 0.65 -1.06 3.33

0.62 0.02 -0.15 0.55 4.10

7.38 6.43 0.76 14.11 3.47

17.49 15.88 7.95 16.92 -15.55

.Source: Reuters

Cotton output to be near CAB estimate, pegged at 337L bales

With the 2012-13 crop season nearing completion, the Indian Cotton Federation has pegged the final crop level at 337 lakh bales, which is close to Cotton Advisory Board (CAB)'s estimates of 340 lakh bales during the season. The central region is expected to end up with 181 lakh bales followed by southern region with 93 lakh bales, the federation said here. "Timely monsoon all over the country has also ensured timely sowing and this is bound to give a boost in the yield also and the better crop conditions should ensure comfortable cotton supply position especially for Indian spinners," said J Thulasidaran, president, Indian Cotton Federation. Gujarat expects to end the season with 87 lakh bales, while Maharashtra is expected to post marginal higher yield at 76 lakh bales as against CAB's estimation of 74 lakh bales. Andhra Pradesh stands as third largest producer with 75 lakh bales. (Source: Financial Express)

SEA appeals to government to exempt soybean oil, RBD palmolein from CTT
The Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), a leading representative of oil and oilseed industry of India, has urged the government to exempt soybean oil, RBDpalmolein, castor oil and cotton seed from Commodity Transaction (CTT). Government has notified that CTT of 0.01% is to be levied on all derivative contracts of non-agricultural commodities transacted through recognized commodity exchanges with effect from 1st July, 2013. However , 23 specified agri-commodities have been exempted from CTT including cotton seed oilcake, copra, rape/mustard seed, soybean and soymeal. Currently, there is state defined mandi tax applicable on purchase of soybeans and other oilseeds across India. The processors also have to pay a 5% VAT on refined oil.
(Source: Economic Times)

Weak rains cloud paddy outlook for eastern region

Paddy farmers in eastern India are a bit worried over erratic rainfall this year. The spread of the rainfall has not been uniform across the region which has prompted states like West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha to prepare contingency plans if the trend continues for long. The states are looking at options such as short-duration crops and direct seeding as possible ways of growing paddy in the absence of good rains critical for preparing nurseries and subsequent transplantation of the crop to the field. The eastern region has witnessed deficit rainfall since the monsoon season kicked off this year. According to data provided by India Meteorological Department (IMD), the region has received 20%59% less rainfall in the period beginning June 1. (Source: Economic Times)

Wheat production pegged lower at 92.46 mt

The wheat trade is sceptical about the latest Government projections on crop size for 2012-13, estimated at 92.46 million tonnes. Though the Governments fourth advanced estimates released on Monday pegged the crop a tad lower than its earlier estimate of 93.62 mt, the trade believes that the crop could be much lower than last year based on the procurement and the pricing trends. The country had produced a record 94.88 mt wheat last year. Wheat procurement by Government agencies this year was down by a third at 25.08 mt against last years 38 mt. Prices continue to rule high despite the Governments latest estimate of a large crop. In Uttar Pradesh, the countrys largest wheat producing State, market prices during the procurement season crossed the minimum support price (MSP) levels for the first time in five years. The higherthan-MSP was attributed to the poor market arrivals as farmers held back their produce in anticipation of better prices. (Source: Business Line)

Wheat, corn production estimates raised by USDA

Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013 and 14 were raised slightly, with lower beginning stocks more than offset by higher production. Both estimates are based on the latest surveys and forecasts, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports in its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Beginning stocks for wheat were reduced 27 million bushels and production was forecast up 34 million bushels, with a lower forecasted harvested area from the June 28 acreage report more than offset by higher yields. Wheat production is raised 11 million bushels for hard red winter wheat and 30 million bushels for soft red winter wheat. For durum, a reduction in area is only partly offset by a higher yield, with production forecast down 5 million bushels. Total U.S. wheat use for 2013 and 14 is raised 89 million bushels, as lower expected domestic use is more than offset by higher projected exports. Exports are projected 100 million bushels higher, reflecting strong sales. Ending stocks are projected down 83 million bushels. At 576 million tons, stocks are expected to remain well above the 60-year low of 306 million in 2007 and 08. (Source: www.agweek.com)

Pulses output touches a record 18.45 mt in 2012-13

Production of pulses touched an all-time high of 18.45 million tonnes in 2012-13 aided a record output of gram (chana), tur (arhar) and urad. Latest Government estimates peg chana output at a record 8.88 mt over the previous years 7.70 mt. Similarly production of tur touched a new high of 3.07 mt, marginally lower than the targeted 3.09 mt, but higher than previous years 2.65 mt. Output of urad also touched a new high 1.90 mt, surpassing previous years 1.77 mt. However, the production of moong declined 26 per cent to 1.20 mt, from the previous years 1.63 mt. The Government estimates overall foodgrain output of 255.36 mt during 2012-13, down 1.51 per cent from the previous years 259.29 mt. (Source:
Business Line)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 23, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana Futures remained lower throughout the trading day on Monday mainly due to lack of buying interest and ample supplies. Comfortable stock position in the warehouses is also an important factor exerting a downside pressure on prices. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 3.15% and 3.68% lower yesterday. Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Chana signifincalty higher at record 8.8 mn tn in the current season 2012-13. With a significant hike in MSP of kharif Pulses for 2013-14 season, area under cultivation is expected to increase in the coming season too. Further good monsoon may not only support good yield of kharif pulses, but also ensure favorable soil condition for sowing of Rabi pulses vizChana and Moong. As per the data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under kharif th Pulses stood at 31.62 lakh ha as on 19 July 2013, which is up by 54 percent compared to the same period last year. According to government of AP, total pulses sowing in the current year is up by 1.5% at 4.02 lakh ha whereas according to data released by Rajasthan State Government, pulses sowing have been done in 4.51 la ha. The CCEA declared the MSP for kharif pulses. The MSP of Tur has been raised by ` 450 to ` 4,300/qtl, moong by ` 100 to ` 4,500/qtl while Urad has been kept unchanged at ` 4,300/qtl.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX Aug'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on July 22, 2013 % change Last 2976 2828 Prev day -3.15 -3.68 WoW -3.62 -5.48 MoM -8.02 -12.98
Source: Reuters

YoY -39.88 -41.32

Spread Matrix
Closing 2975.85 2828 2886 2977 19-Jul-13 -147.85 0 -

as on July 22, 2013 20-Aug-13 -89.85 58 0 20-Sep-13 1.15 149 91 0 as on July 20, 2013 Stocks as on 17th July 82716 60619 11680 155015 Qty in Process 180 124 438 724

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 20th July 82715 60230 11927 154872 Qty in Process 160 30 30 220

309

111

938

1358

Demand supply scenario

According to fourth advance Estimates released on 22 July 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at record 18.45 mn tn compared to the third advance estimates of 18 mn tn and 17.09 mn tn produced in 2011-12 seaosn. Kharif Pulses witnessed a marginal decline in the output which was offset by a considerable rise in Rabi output, especially Chana. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. As per the estimates, Chana output is pegged at a record 8.8 mn tn compared with its third advance estimates of 8.49 million tonnes and a previous record of 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11.
nd

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX August contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana prices may decline further during the intraday on the back of an upward revision in chana output by the ministry of agriculture. Lack of buying interest and huge supplies may keep sentiments weak in the near term. Recovery in the prices may be seen in the month of August as demand will emerge ahead of festivals.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Aug Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for July 23, 2013 Resistance 2860-2900

2750-2788

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 23, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
A sharp fall in the Soybean prices on Monday was mainly seen on the back of excess rains in the soybean growing belts of central India and higher sowing figures of 2013-14 crops. Expectations of good yield have raised hopes of record soy output in the coming seaosn. Spot as well as Futures settled 3.22% and 1.65% lower on Monday. Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Soybean output signifincalty higher at record 14.6 mn tn in the current season 201213 compared with 12.2 mn tn in 2011-12. Total nine Oilseeds production is pegged at 31 MT in 2012-13, slightly higher than 29.79 MT achieved in the previous year. Monsoon rains slowed its pace last week, but still they were in excess in the soy growing belts of central India. As per the IMD, Cumulative th rainfall as on 17 July in the central India (major soy belt), were 42 th percent above the LPA, while in the week ending 17 July they rains were recorded up by 45 percent in Central India. As per the data released by ministry of agriculture, Oilseeds were th planted in 149.82 lakh ha as on 19 July, 2013, which is up by 37.7 percent compared to the same period last year. International Markets Soybean August futures on the CBOT ended 1.98% higher on expected drop in US soybean crop condition ratings along with strong demand for scarce old-crop supplies of the bean. According to the USDA Crop Progress Report released on Monday, the USDA rated the U.S. the crop is rated as 64% good-to-excellent, 28% fair, and 8% very poor-poor. Last week's good/excellent rating came in at 67%. USDA reported that 8% of the crop is setting pods vs. 33% a year ago and a 19% five-year average. Also, 46% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. 78% five-year average. Old-crop soybean inventories are expected to drop to a nine-year low by Aug. 31, 2013 due to last year's drought-reduced harvest and strong demand from China and domestic buyers.
Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Market Highlights

as on July 22, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -3.22 -7.16 -1.65 1.98 -0.71 -1.03 -19.06 4.57 -1.23 -1.29

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX Oct '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT Aug'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3488 3072 1520 3465 3360

MoM -11.47 -19.57 1.81 -1.23 -4.84

YoY -26.9 -35.0 -7.82 -21.9 -23.2

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3488 Spot 19-Jul-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 3071.5 3083 3112 0 11.5 0 19-Jul-13 -416.5 18-Oct-13 -405

as on July 22, 2013 20-Nov-13 -376 40.5 29 0 as on July 22, 2013 20-Aug-13 -80.6 24 0 20-Sep-13 -60.6 44 20 0 as on July 20, 2013 Qty in Process 231 0 20 251 as on July 20, 2013 Qty in Process 30 0 0 0 483 50 80 643

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Closing 3464.6 3360 3384 3404 19-Jul-13 -104.6 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 20th July 13056 587 351 13994 Stocks as on 20th July 3070 4458 20819 644 63971 4307 1971 99242 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 71 0 0 71 Stocks as on 17th July 16068 921 331 17320 Stocks as on 17th July 3040 4549 20779 634 63828 5283 1981 100094

Outlook
Soybean may open higher tracking firm international markets amidst drop in US soy crop rating. However, prices may decline in the later part on expectations of good yield and early start to harvesting in the domestic markets.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Abundant supplies of mustard seed in the domestic markets and comfortable stocks of edible oil led to further decline in the mustard prices. Further, Agriculture ministry in its fourth advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.82 mn tn, up by 18.4% compared to 201112 season.

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Overall trend in mustard seed remain bearish amidst higher production this season. However, demand at lower levels may restrict sharp fall in the prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 23, 2013 Support 2981-3026 3310-3334 Resistance 3121-3170 3388-3415

www.angelcommodities.com Source: Telequote

Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 23, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Bearish trend in Ref soy oil prices persisted in the last week as comfortable stocks of imported edible oil and appreciation in the domestic currency exerted downside pressure on the prices. Spot as well as futures settled 0.71% and 0173% lower w-o-w. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 3.2% to 947591 tn in June, supported by sunflower and soy oil imports ahead of Ramadan. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on May 1 stood at 670,000 tn, the trade body said, off a record of 930,000 tn on March 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 677.65 664.30 45.41 2355 502.70 Prev day -0.71 -0.17 -0.20 1.25 0.20

as on July 22, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTAugust'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia August '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW -1.53 -3.57 -0.94 1.07 0.94

MoM -4.80 -4.24 -5.44 -3.13 -0.77

YoY -13.78 -16.08 -11.96 -18.74 -11.32

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 677.65 664.3 649.4 626.2 19-Jul-13 -13.35 0 20-Aug-13 -28.25 -14.9 0 -

as on July 22, 2013 20-Sep-13 -51.45 -38.1 -23.2 0 as on July 22, 2013

Outlook
Ref soy oil may open higher tracking firm Malaysian palm oil futures. However, prices may come under downside pressure in the later part on the back of comfortable stock position of imported edible oil.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 30-Sept-13 Closing 502.7 497.6 487.2 31-Jul-13 0 31-Aug-13 -5.1 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO traded with upward bias tracking firm international markets. Malaysian palm oil futures settled higher as a decline in prices to the lowest level this year spurred demand for most consumed cooking oil. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from July 1 to 20 fell 14.0 percent to 798,482 tonnes from 928,810 tonnes shipped during June 1 to 20. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for July, up from 9% in June. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased by 0.29% against May, while end stocks declined by 9.4%.Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-15 declined 22.8% at 547,857 tn as against 709,860 tn during June 1-15. Exports in June rose 7 percent due to Ramadan demand. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports declined 20.7 per cent in June to 296, 230 tn, from a record high 373,837 tonnes in May as overall weakness in the Rupee made imports expensive.

30-Sept-13 -15.5 -10.4 0 NCDEX August contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Outlook
CPO prices may gain tracking lower level demand coupled with higher international markets. However, expectations of an appreciation in the Rupee may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Aug NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 23, 2013 Support 657-661 497-500 Resistance 668-671 505-508

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 23, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera August Futures traded on a mixed note with a negative bias yesterday and settled 0.24% lower as higher than expected arrivals coupled with higher production last year continued to mount pressure on the prices. However, robust overseas demand supported prices at lower levels offsetting higher supplies. Good rains in the main jeera growing regions have increased the moisture content of the soil, improving prospects of a better sowing in the coming season. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. According to IBIS, India exported 9462.64 tn of jeera in June. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam &USA. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1% Jeera of Indian origin is being offered for Singapore at $2,350/tn (FOB Mumbai) while for Europe at $2,500/tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13630 13533 5680 5838 Prev day -0.31 -0.24 -0.66 -1.22

as on July 22, 2013 % Change WoW -1.00 -0.26 -1.49 -1.85 MoM -0.72 -1.10 1.74 -1.18 YoY -14.37 -15.92 2.05 -6.80

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Aug Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 13630 13532.5 13797.5 14027.5 19-Jul-13 -97.5 0 20-Aug-13 167.5 265 0 -

as on July 22, 2013 20-Sep-13 397.5 495 230 0 as on July 22, 2013 19-Jul-13 157.55 0 20-Aug-13 221.55 64 0 20-Sep-13 313.55 156 92 0 as on July 20, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 17th July Process 1422 6193 7615 7444 NCDEX August contract 39 39 78 551

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 7,000 bags on Monday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 5680.45 5838 5902 5994

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera may trade with a negative bias on account of higher supplies. However, overseas demand may support prices at lower levels. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 20th July 1460 5985 7445 8109 Qty in Process 6 6 12 50

Turmeric
Turmeric futures traded on a negative note yesterday and settled 1.22% lower as overseas on account of huge stocks coupled with good sowing progress and weak local buying. However, overseas demand support prices at lower levels. Sowing in Andhra Pradesh is higher than last year but lower than the normal sowing.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode mandi were reported at 4,000 bags and 2,500 bags respectively on Monday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is th reported at 0.3 lakh ha as on 17 July, as against 0.25 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.37 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric may consolidate at lower levels. The ongoing sowing coupled with good monsoon progress as well as huge carryover stocks may pressurize prices. However, overseas demand coupled with declining arrivals in the physical markets may support prices.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX August contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Aug Futures Turmeric NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for July 23, 2013

Support 13300-13420 5660-5750 Resistance 13650-13770 5940-6030

www.angelcommodities.com

Source: Telequote

Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 23, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar spot as well as futures declined 0.21% and 0.59% yesterday on the back of ample supplies in the domestic markets. Expectations of recovery in the cane yield due to improving monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka also exerted downside pressure on the sugar prices. However, export orders coupled with an increase in the import duty supported prices at lower levels. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation. However, the same didnt reflect in the market as supplies are significantly higher. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 48.4 lakh ha as compared to 50.04 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 3016 `/qtl 472 $/tonne 364.44 $/tonne 0.68 0.90 -0.59 Last 3054

as on July 22, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.21 -0.31 1.65 -1.73 1.49 MoM YoY -0.11 -12.46 0.17 -4.93 -2.03 -9.75 -26.04 -30.18

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3054.15 3016 3035 3059 19-Jul-13 -38.15 0 20-Aug-13 -19.15 19 0 -

as on July 22, 2013 20-Sep-13 4.85 43 24 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon may curb some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 20th July 2548 6017 21 923 9509 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

as on July 20, 2013 Stocks as on 17th July 2548 6237 21 1098 9904 Qty in Process 0 50 0 0 50

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX August contract

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE Sugar as well as ICE Raw sugar traded higher and settled 0.9% and 0.68% higher on Monday as cold weather and rains in the countrys main growing region are set to disrupt harvesting. Prices, in the long term have declined on account of abundant supplies from Brazil. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 88.95 lakh tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1 through June, up 33 percent from 66.9 lakh tn a year ago. Also, Mills have used 58.1 percent of the cane crush for ethanol since the start of the season - up sharply from 53.82 percent at this time last year with the rest used for sugar.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar Futures are expected to continue to decline as higher supplies and expectations of improvement in the cane output may continue to mount pressure on the prices. However, a recovery in the international sugar prices, coupled with an increase in import duty and festive season demand may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Aug NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for July 23, 2013 Support 3003-3009 Resistance 3025-3035

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 23, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
Cotton prices declined sharply in the first half of the trading session on account of higher planting and good monsoon and higher sowing so far in the country. However, prices recovered towards the end amidst short coverings. MCX Cotton July contract settled 0.3% higher while NCDEX Kapas prices settled 1.16% lower on Monday. Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Cotton output at 34 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) in 2012-13, lower than the record 35.2 million bales in the previous year. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) is reported at 318.62, down 2.2 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 976 19640 86.39 #N/A

as on July 22, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -1.16 -3.60 0.31 0.56 -0.15 1.22 #N/A #N/A MoM YoY -3.60 #N/A 1.08 9.54 1.46 22.91 #N/A #N/A
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19640 20280 19780 31-Jul-13 0

as on July 22, 2013 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 640 0 140 -500 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting was reported higher at 100.55 la ha as on 19 July 2013 as against 83.74 la ha during the same period last year. A considerable increase in cotton acreage is observed in Gujarat wherein sowing was reported at 22.71 la ha on 12 July 2013, up from 8.6 la ha last year. Similarly, sowing in Rajasthan and AP was seen at 3.29 la ha and 13.2 la ha respectively. In Maharashtra, however, cotton sowing was reported at 28.95 la ha which is less as compared to the sowing here during the same period last year which was 33.6 la ha.
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29-Nov-13

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 20th July 5000 1800 111400 21500 900 100 140700

as on July 20, 2013

Stocks as on 17th July 10000 5400 113200 21500 900 100 151100 NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
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Technical Chart - Kapas

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton futures were almost flat on Monday, consolidating after investor buying lifted fiber to its largest 2-day rally in more than a month. The USDA monthly report increased its forecast for global stocks to 94.34mn bales from its previous forecast of 92.49 mn bales. The report also reduced US export estimates for 2012-13 crop year. ICAC has lowered projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. Reports indicate that textile mills in China are seeking permission to import more cotton. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX July contract

Outlook
Cotton prices may trade with upward bias as lower prices spurred buying in the domestic markets. However, sharp upside may be capped as higher sowing and good monsoon may pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX July Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for July 23, 2013 Support 956-966 19200-19400 Resistance 987-997 19850-20100
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Tuesday| July 23, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum October Futures declined sharply by 3.88% and 4.97% on Monday extending its previous weeks losses account of higher sowing along with comfortable supplies. Overall trend in guar, since the relaunch of the futures contract, remained bearish. Higher production last year and comparatively lower exports have resulted into higher supplies this year. With early and above normal monsoon so far, prospects for next years crop are also strong.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut `/qtl 4950 `/qtl 17409 `/qtl 14040 `/qtl -3.97 -9.30 -3.88 Last Prev day 6200 -9.78

as on July 22, 2013 % change WoW -15.34 -32.56 -15.92 -33.02 MoM -20.22 -34.61 -20.68 -35.98 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

During the last week, rains increased its intensity over areas growing soybean, groundnut and cotton while they eased in the northwest and the northeast regions. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 15 July, 2013 stood at 8.17 lakh hectares compared with 4.75 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year.
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Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 6200 4950 4930 5010 19-Jul-13 -1250 0 20-Aug-13 -1270 -20 0 -

as on July 22, 2013 20-Sep-13 -1190 60 80 0 as on July 22, 2013 20-Aug-13 -3499.05 -130 0 20-Sep-13 -3159.05 210 340 0 as on July 20, 2013 Stocks as on 17th July 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 17409.05 14040 13910 14250 19-Jul-13 -3369.05 0 -

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Stocks as on 20th July 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar prices may continue to decline in the intraday on expectations that monsoon will gain momentum further in the largest guar growing state of Rajasthan. Higher sowing and thereby higher output hopes may keep sentiments weak in the near term.

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 23, 2013 Support 4780-4860 4780-4860 13670-13850 13700-13880 Resistance 5030-5110 5030-5110 14260-14500 14300-14530

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com