MWWD2008 ROUNDTABLE

SEALEVELCHANGES WHATISSAIDABOUTIT? CarloAvanzini ProfessionalEngineer,MWWDChairman

Thesubjectofglobalweatherchangeshasbecome, become inrecentyears years, ahotsubject. Thepressisemphasizingthecatastrophicpotentialeffects (ordenyingthemassciencefiction),contributingtotheperplexity ofthepeoplewhichstartstoaskforactions butarepractical actions i possible? ibl ? WithinthescopeofMWWD MWWD,IhaveproposedtoholdaRound Tableonthepotentialdangersofthechangeinthesealevels duetoglobalwarming.

Question: Willwefaceacatastrophicriseinthesealevels, endangeringcoastaltownsandmarinestructures, ortheseawillbehave? Thealarmsonthedesertificationandwarming arewegoingto cultivategraininLapland? andthearcticicemelting waterwill ,aswellthoseontheCO2emissions. coveralllowlands arecommon, Thesoundofmanydifferentbellsfindsresonance inallmomentsofourlifethroughthemedia.

Justincase,wearetryingtoprovidetosomebandaids safeguarding g gVeniceandstarting gtomakeplans p forHolland but whataboutlowlandsaroundtheworld,whichalreadysuffer fromlandoriginatedfloods?

U lik the Unlike th water t in i asink i korabathtub, b tht b th thewater t l level lin i Earths E th oceansisnotthesameeverywhere;sealevelvarieswithlocation andtime.Ontimespansofhourstodays,sealevelisinfluencedby tides,winds,andwaves,includingstormsurges.Sealevelrises whenoceanswarm,anditdropswhentheycool(becausewater expandswhenitheatsupandcontractswhenitcools). Regionalvariationsinsealevelcanpersistformanyyears,evena d d U decade. Underlying d l i all llthese th changes h i isth theslower l rise i and dfall f llin i globalaveragesealevelasiceagesrecedeandadvanceover millennia.
(fromNASA,ScienceMissionDirectorate)

Thismapshowsglobal patternsofchangesinsea level(seasurfaceheight) measuredbysatellitebased altimetersfrom1993 throughtheendof2007. Placeswherethesea surface f h height h increased dup to225millimeters(about 8.9inches)areshownin darkred;placeswheresea leveldroppedareblue. Themostwidespreadchangeinsealeveloverthistimeperiodwasan increaseintheWesternPacificseasurfaceheight. height Duringtheperiod spannedbythisimage,aclimatepatterncalledthePacificDecadal Oscillationwasinitswarmphase,andseasurfacetemperatureswere above b averageinmuch hof fthe h b basin.Thermal h lexpansionduringthis h warmphasewouldbeconsistentwithariseinsealevel.

Changesinthelocationorvelocityofoceancurrentsoverthe spanofdecadescanbepartofanaturalcycle,ortheymay indicatethebeginningofalongtermchangeinacurrentasa resultofhumancausedclimatechange. p , SatelliteobservationsofsealevelfromsatellitessuchasTopex, Topex Jason1,andtherecentlylaunchedJason2,arecriticaltoolsfor scientiststryingtounderstandhowglobalwarmingwillaffect oceanheatstorageandglobalsealevelriseovermanydecades.

Internetandpresscontributetotheanxietywithinformation lik thi like this:

Sealevelstorisedramatically High i htides, id stormsurgesand dwaveaction i cancausecoastal l flooding.SealevelsinpartsofScotlandwillhaverisenby about30cmby ythe2080s..... Researcherswereanalyzingtheriskofcoastalfloodingandways tomanageit.Morethan300coastalfloodssince1849werestudied... (itwas) )f found dth that tstorms t driven di in i from f the th Atlantic Atl ti Ocean O during d i periodsofstrongwesterlywindswerethemaincauseofcoastal flooding. g Overthepast p fewdecades,waterlevels5060cmabovethe highestpredictedtidehavebeenrecordedatAberdeen,Lerwickand Stornowayand120cmatMillport. Floodprotectionreportestimatesthatbythe2080ssealevelswillbe about20cmhigherintheClydeestuary,28cmhigherinMorayand Aberdeenshireand32cmhigherintheNorthernIsles....

Large"eye"berg.PhotoOceanQuestCharter

Arewefacingannewglacialeraoraperiodoficemelting? W arereading We di all lland dthe h contraryof fall... ll and dthe h morewe read,themorewedonotunderstandwhatishappening. IntheAgeofSail,knowledgeoftheworld'soceancurrentswasa must.AcollaborativestudybetweenSpanishandGerman researchershasdiscoveredforthefirsttimehowsmallvariations insurfacewindssignificantlychangedtheoceancurrentsofthe N thAtlantic. North Atl ti These Th changes h mayhave h been b responsible ibl for f the th previous abruptclimatechangethatoccurredduringthelastglacialperiod. p
rs Scientistshavenowboththeclimaticsimulationsaswellasthe

reconstructionsattheirdisposal,bothofwhichindicatethat variationsintheAtlanticOceancirculationcouldhavebeenthe keymechanismresponsiblefortheabruptclimaticchangethat t kplace took l overthe th ice i age.

An iceberg waterfall. Photo Ocean Quest Charters

Thenyoureadthat: Ithappenshoweverthatsincesomemonthstheatmospherehas changed...notonlymeteorologically.Again,somescientists presentacontradictoryhypothesis...ThemagazineNature,for instance,hasrecentlyexplainedthatbetween2010and2020 wewill illf faceadrastic d ti reduction d ti of fthe th earth thtemperature t t due d to t thecoolingoftheAtlanticocean...andthepastmontha Norvegianstudyhasinformed informedthat,ifitistrue(butmaybe not...)thearcticicesaremelting,theanctarticicesincreasetheir thickness...andthisiswhathappensduringthecenturies

Whatfromthepracticalstandpoint? Willwefindourselves,oursonsandgrandsons,obligedtotakea liftfromanynavigatingcreatureormakeshiftbarge? Ido d not tthink thi kso. Evenifitmaybepossiblethatthescenariowillchange,the changeswill hopefully notbesosuddentoinfluencethenext generations.

Whilescientistsseektheif&why,weengineersmay/willhave tofacethepossibletechnicalproblemswhichageneralizedrisein waterlevelmay/willcause. Ifwelookforinstancejusttotheoutfalls outfalls,awaterlevelrise rise,also byafractionofmeter,willupsetallthedischargehydraulics... Ifwewanttobemorepessimistic,wecouldstarttothinktothe possiblefloodingofthecoastalWWTP,totheinfluenceofhigh wateronbreakwaterandjetties...tothelossofwidecoastal areas... Letsthinkabout about.

NEXT: IanLarsen Canwerelyonmathematicalmodels? EmiliaArasaki Meansealevelriseimpactsinseaoutfalls Physicalmodellingstudy MuraliKantharaj ImpactsofClimateChangeonIndiancoasts a perspectivetofuture ChristopherMead Me CoastalDefence Vulnerability2075 assessmentofthechangeincoastaldefence vulnerabilitycausedby globalclimatechangeoverthenext75years DovRosen Assessmentofclimatechangeinducedimpactviasea levelrise,waveandwindclimateandanthropogenicactivityonthe coastsoftheMediterranean Discussion

Assessmentofclimatechangeinducedimpactviasealevelrise, waveandwindclimateandanthropogenicactivityonthecoasts oftheMediterranean DovRosen, ,B.Galanti, ,A.Golan, ,L.Raskin Summary :Theforecastedsealevelriseinducedbyglobal warming,aswellastheforecastedincreaseinthefrequencyof extremestormconditions d induced d db byclimate l change h impacton windandwaveclimatestatisticsposedangerstomanycoastal sectorsworldwide worldwide,andalsoontheMediterraneancoastofIsrael ispresentlyinamilderosivestate,presentingbothbeacherosion andcoastalcliffsretreat. Acoastalengineeringhydroandmorphodynamicstudywas performedbytheauthorsinordertoprovideguidelinesfora national i lpolicy li document d onthe h managementof fthe h coastal lcliffs liff inviewoftheirpotentialincreasedcollapseandset backendangeringpeople people,propertyandhistoricvalues. values

Thest study d included incl dedassessmentofpresentseale level elriseforatime horizonupto2100(+1.0m),increaseoftheprobabilityofmore frequentextremeevents(a5%increaseintheheightofthedeep watersignificantwaveheightforanaveragereturnperiodof100 yearsforthesametimehorizon)andinvestigatedmitigation means.Wavesetupandrunup impactandprofileerosionwere investigatedoncoastalsectorscoveringover60kminlengthby usingtheSWANwavemodelandtheSBEACHmodelmoduleofthe CEDASsoftwarepackage,usingagridsizeof10mfromdeepwater totheclifftop(SWAN)and5m(SBEACH).

Theoutcomeindicatedthecoastalcliffsectorsmostsensitive andatrisktobedamagedandprovedthatatleastonefeasible mitigative solutionisbyutilizationoflowsubmergence detachedcaissonbreakwaterschainsremotefromthecoast. Theseinduceapermanentrelativelylow wavesetup(>1.5m)butdiminishalmostcompletelythewave attackingthecliffsunderanyseastatecondition condition,hence enablingapermanentprotectivemeans,consistingofthe submergedcaissonchain,lowerpartoftheclifftoeprotection bypermanentmeanslikegeotextilesacsorgeotubes combined withasingularartificialsandnourishmentoftheclifftoeand beach.