New

Earth Mining, Inc.1

Based in Denver, New Earth Mining is one of the largest U.S. precious-metal producers, and has experienced significant growth in the last decade, mainly due to increasing gold prices (from $ 300 to $ 1,700 per ounce). New Earth executives worried about the sustainability of gold prices at their current levels. The company felt it was necessary to implement a diversification program that would reduce its dependence on precious metals. Therefore, New Earth recently started investigating the possibility of diversification in base metals and other materials. A new investment opportunity appeared in early 2012. New Earth was informed of the existence of a major body of iron ore close to the massive Kalahari Manganese field in South Africa. The company felt that an investment in iron ore provided a strategic fit for its diversification objective. The price of iron appreciated more than five-fold from 2002 to 2012, but would probably fall by about 20% to $ 80 for the project lifetime. New Earth hired Drexel Corporation, an engineering and construction firm, to analyze the extent of the deposit and to determine the cost and feasibility of establishing a mine site close to Kalahari. The engineering firm found that the field contained 30 million tons of ore with an average iron content of 60%. At the projected extraction rate of 2 million tons per year, it would take 15 years to deplete the ore body. Drexel estimated that the proposed venture in South Africa could be operational by the beginning of 2015. The total investment in infrastructure to support the development of the mine would be $ 200 million, with 40% of the investment required at the beginning of 2013 and the remaining required at the beginning of 2014. These investments would be made in South African Rand (ZAR) and would include construction costs and related insurance, operational costs, and $ 20 million in working capital. By November 2012, New Earth was able to produce a pro forma analysis of the profitability of the new investment. This is shown in the cash flow analysis "Cash Flows" in the attached spreadsheet. Since iron is sold in the international market, the revenues will be in US Dollars (USD), but all costs for operating the mine will be ZAR. Taxes will be paid in the U.S. All numbers in the spreadsheet "Cash Flow" have been converted to USD. By December 2012, New Earth had tentatively secured a few large steel producers located in China, Japan, and South Korea as major customers. Iron Ore would be shipped to these countries via a South African shipping company. New Earth also negotiated a financing package with the potential customers and a syndicate of U.S. banks. The financing package consisted of
1

This case is a summarized and adapted version of Harvard Business School Case 9-913548, "New Earth Minin, Inc.", 2013, by W.E. Fruhan, and W. Wang.

three loans, totaling $ 160 million. The remaining $ 40 million would be provided as equity by New Earth itself, paid from its cash position. As the revenues from the venture would be in USD, the loans would also be given in USD. The spreadsheet "Debt" shows when the loans would be provided as well as the repayment schedule. The senior secured and unsecured debt would be normal coupon-paying debt, whereas the senior subordinated debt would be a zero-coupon loan, implying that in 2024 both the principal of $ 60 million as well as the accrued interest would be paid. The spreadsheet "Market Rates" shows current interest rates in the U.S. and South Africa, the exchange rate, the iron price, as well as stock market data. New Earth wants to answer the following questions: 1. What is the net present value of the project? (They wonder whether the WACC or the APV methodology is the right approach.) a. Briefly explain why you recommend WACC or APV. b. Calculate the appropriate discount rate. c. Calculate the net present value of the project. d. Calculate the value of the tax shield from the loans. 2. As part of the investment needs to be made early 2014 in ZAR, the company wants to hedge the exchange rate. They wonder whether they should hedge using a forward contract or an option contract. a. At what forward price can they hedge the investment? b. What would be the cost of an at-the-money option? c. Which hedge strategy do you recommend? 3. They also wonder whether they should hedge the ZAR/USD-risk in the cash flows from the venture. If they decide to hedge, should they hedge the entire cash flow or only part of it? And if only partly, which part of the cash flow should they hedge? 4. For the years 2024-2029, what is your estimate of the volatility of the cash flow (in percentage)? (If you cannot answer this, use 35% as an estimate in the next question.) 5. The senior subordinated debt needs to be repaid in 2024 ($ 30 million plus compounded interest). Using the option approach to value debt and equity, what is the value of the subordinated debt at the beginning of 2013 and what is the implied cost of this debt? Hint: note that when repaying the debt in 2024, the venture will last for five more years. It is the present value of these last five cash flows that is the underlying value of the option. You are asked to write a short management report addressing the questions above. Please that the report is clear in itself, but you can add a spreadsheet with more detailed calculations. Note that the spreadsheet contains the option functions =bscall(), =bsput(), = fxcall(), and fxput().