wbarakat2003@hotmail.

com

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24 -15 -
.

:

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-
60 .

) (1.

) (2.

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) (6.

) (5.

) (7.

126180

280401

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%45

1421 (.

) (1

280401 736

1421

313

-1 .

82017

65%

28998 1421 )

-2 .

35330

28%

1421 (.

-3 .

7571

6%

-4

1262

1%

4419

.
126180

-1

100%

:
1421.

-3

%63

%27

-2

15422

91691 280401

280401 1421

1421

, %5.5

%32.7

1421.

1421 ,(.

) ( 2

1421

-1

61688

67.3%

.
-2

16824

18.3%

7851

8.6%

5328
91691

5.8%
100%

:
1421.

.
-4 .

.
-3

-4

(Sagberg, F., 1999).

-5

)Maycock, G., 1997; Taoka,
.(1998

-7

. -

)Chen, L., Baker, S. P.,

;Braver, E. R., & Li, G, 2000

(.Murray, A, 1998

-8

Campbell, B.J., Campbell, F.A.,

202

.(1988; Evans, L., 1987

%0.07

-6

523

)Sivak, M.,

%0.19

;Soler, J., & Trankle, U. 1989

(Venezian, E., 1980

)(2

1421.

) ( 3

1421

-1 .

126180

45%

-2

91691

32.7%

.
)(3

) -(

-3

15422

5.5%

)(1

.
3476

-4

1412

1.2%

1421

-5.
-6 .

202

0.07%

43430
280401

15.5%
100%

1412 .
) (2

The

Census Formula

c
x

1421.

1421.

E , Ex

:
)( 1

.



.

.
) (3

Life Year
Calendar Year

.

)(4

:
)( 1

:
)(1

( .

) . ( x1

-15

24 ) . ( x 2

) . ( x3

) 59-25( ) . ( x 4

) ( ) . ( x5

) . ( x6

.
)( 3

60

.
)( 2

) . ( x7

) +

( ) . ( x8

.
*

) +
( ) . ( x9

) . ( x10

14.

) (2

Calendar Year

:
)(4

(.

) (

m
x

m x

: .

)( 3

)( 2

60

: .

)( 1

-45
59.

)( 2

44-30
.

)( 1

-15
29.

Life Year

q x

q
x

1412 1421.

) (5

: .
:

:
.
:

.
.

.
.

) ( 4
1421-1405

1405

29052

100.

2263

100.0

3277

100.

1412

40076

121.0

3495

1413

85277

138.

2738

154.1

3719

106.

1414

12532

142.1

4077

1415

293.

3488

137.1

3789

113.

1416

12214

115.4

3123

1417

431.

3213

110.8

3131

124.

1418

16726

124.4

3474

1419

420.

3103

137.2

4290

115.

1420

13576

143.0

4848

1421

124.1

4419

95.3

575.

2611

15372

95.5

467.

2507

106.

26432

529.

2814

130.

26777

909.

3105

147.

28040

921.

3236

134.

965.

2899

1405 =100

9
:
1421.

1421

) ( 6
1421

1405 .
%31 1405.
%17
1405.


:
) ( 5
) ( 1421

84313
89520
700

%
30.07
31.93
0.25

4851
9501
1211

16.73
32.76
4.18

720
1184
283

16.29
26.79
6.40

64381
8266
3060
3686
12469
4174

22.96
2.95
1.09
1.31
4.45
1.49

3451
1480
853
388
1760
1152

11.90
5.10
2.94
1.34
6.07
3.97

581
203
157
124
476
129

13.15
4.59
3.55
2.81
10.77
2.92

2412
4248
1456
1716
28040

0.86
1.51
0.52
0.61
100.0

959
892
1486
1014
28998

3.31
3.08
5.12
3.50
100.00

82
128
279
73
4419

1.86
2.90
6.31
1.65
100.00

:
1421.

68237
75327

29.84
32.94

16076
14193

31.10
27.46

84313
89520

240

0.10

460

0.89

700

53444
7363
1964
2977
7589
3682

23.37
3.22
0.86
1.30
3.32
1.61

10937
903
1096
709
4880
492

21.16
1.75
2.12
1.37
9.44
0.95

64381
8266
3060
3686
12469
4174

2086
3852
786
1162
228709

0.91
1.68
0.34
0.51
100.0

326
396
670
554
51692

0.63
0.66
1.30
1.07
100.0

2412
4248
1456
1716
280401

:
1421.

Y :
) Y = f ( x1 + x 2 + ......... + x n

1412
1421.

10
) ( 7

) ( x8

) +(.

) ( x9

) + (.

) (. :

)1420-1390(. :

) ( x10 .

SPSS
:

) ( x1 .

) ( x 2

) ( 8

24-15.

Model Summaryb
Durbin-W
atson
3.123

**

) ( x3

Std. Error of
the Estimate
755.3435

b. Dependent Variable: Y1

) ( 8 :

) ( x 4

) (R square 0.96

) 59-25(.

) ( x5

( Y

) (.

.%96

) ( x6

R
R Square
.980 a
.960

.
) ( x7

) ( 9

Model
1

a. Predictors: (Constant), X10, X3, X8, X4, X6, X7, X2, X1

60.

Adjusted
R Square
1.000

) ( x10 ) ( x9 ) ( x8 ) ( x7 ) ( x6 ) ( x5 ) ( x 4 ) ( x3 ) ( x 2 ) ( x1
1574548

1412

40076

1
1693062

1259638

157454.8

3464006

1259638

24481.12

66144

133759

77305

20000

1413

85277
12532

5
1737676

1388311

172692.4

3470778

1439103

22640.81

72824

172073

87435

21620

1414

4
12214

8
1783466

1442272

180718.4

3649121

1563909

22155.39

76801

186704

86897

21740

1415

0
16726

8
1830463

1533781

183697.1

4012800

1783467

21718.15

75920

158821

90718

22780

1416

5
13576

3
1878698

1566053

201351

4210066

1921987

21446.48

78723

141468

81279

23080

1417

3
15372

3
1928204

1672042

19726.33

4216551

2066568

21431.75

* .
21203.72
2142235
4492716
206317.9
4
7
**1418

1773948

1979015
26432
.

20688.32
2216497
4551734
209775.6
1761323
0
6
1419

80987

161301

84819
15201

23080

83662

314150

1
16965

23000

84351

338102

27236

2031164

1
17836

22660

1420

4
28040

5
2084688

1816470

219365.8

4698084

2280839

20143.03

86607

356957

4
18623

22520

1421

1864345

223033

4821985

2340944

19632.77

88179

371021

22340

11

) 0.07556 = ( x1

) (9 :
f 13356.177

%10

%5

%0.8 .%95

.
) (10

Sig.
.094
.045
.009
.020
.016
.094
.034
.014
.014

24 ) 2.166 = ( x 2
%10

Coefficientsa

t
-6.702
14.157
-74.151
-32.102
39.673
-6.758
18.699
44.998
46.596

-15

Standardi
zed
Unstandardized
Coefficien
Coefficients
ts
Model
B
Std. Error
Beta
1
(Constant) -951639 141983.0
X1
7.556E-02
.005
1.464
X2
2.166
.029
-5.323
X3
-.644
.020
-.463
X4
.354
.009
2.146
X6
-21.501
3.182
-.356
X7
6.800
.364
.559
X8
1.346
.030
1.604
X10
65.063
1.396
.753
a. Dependent Variable: Y

%21.6
.%95

.
60
) 0.644- = ( x3
%10


%6.44
.%95

) (10 :

**

.

) 59-25( ) 0.354 = ( x 4

%5
) . ( x 6

**

%10

) ( ) ( x 5 ) + (

) ( x9 .

12

%3.54

) 65.064 = ( x10

.%95

%10

) 21.502- = ( x6

%10

%650.64

.%95

%215.02

.%95

Y:

.

) 6.799 = ( x7

%10

Y = 0.07556 x 1 +2.166 x 2 0.644 x 3 +0.354 x 4

- 21.502x 6 + 6.799x 7 + 6.799x 7 + 65.064x 10
- 951585

.
) (11

%67.99 .%95

.
) = ( x8
1.346

Excluded Variablesb
Collinearit
y
Statistics
Partial
Correlation Tolerance
1.000 7.009E-06
-1.000 1.317E-05

Sig.
.
.

t
.
.

Beta In
1.155 a
-.842a

Model
1
X5
X9

a. Predictors in the Model: (Constant), X10, X3, X8, X4, X6, X7, X2, X1
b. Dependent Variable: Y1

%10

) (11

%13.46 .%95

13

45-59

1019568

982559

1166564

1252716

1174013

1630300

60

1101938

1102797

987241

827228

1210574

890882

18304633

18786983

19282044

19790150

20311645

20846882

) (. :
.

)1420-1390(. :
.

The Census Formula

) (13
1421

0-14

15-29

30-44

45-59

60

6478

5765

4054

4454

8247

28998

479

1370

602

572

1396

4419

1421.

: Life

Year

x ( x

x . x +1

The

Census Formula
. E xc , E x
t 1
1
1
) Px ( 0 ) + Px ( t ) + Px ( t
2
2
1

= E xc

1
E x = E xc + x
2

) (12 -1416

1421

1416

1417

1418

1419

1420

1421

0-14

7896619

8061494

8231505

8163437

7757017

8398700

15-29

4598124

4886494

4733741

4747657

4931667

5488000

30-44

3688384

3753639

4162993

4799112

5238374

4439000

14 -
t 1
1
1
) E = Px ( 0) + Px ( t ) + Px ( t
2
2
1
c
x

14
1
* 7896619 + 8061494 + 8231505 + 8163437
2
1
+ * 8398700
2
= 40361113
1
E 014 = E 0c14 + * 014
2
1
= 40361113 + * 6478
2
= 40364352

= E xc

14 - :
014

E 014

6478
40364352
= 0.00016
=
,

014

1
* 014
2
1
= 40361113 + * 479
2
= 40361352

E 014 = E 0c14 +

E 014

479
40361352
= 0.0000118678

) (1

....

= q 014
=

m
x

= q 014

m x

14 -
:

) (14

014
E 0c14

= m014

6478
40361113
= 0.000161
=

479
40361113
= 0.0000118679

= m014

) (2

q
x

q x

E xc

m
x

E x

E x

4036435

4036135

m x

4036111

q x

q x

0-14

3
2434262

0.000161

1.18679E-05

2
2434550

2
2434330

0.00016

1.18678E-05

15-29

1
2201781

0.000237

5.62799E-05

4
2201983

6
2201811

0.000237

5.62783E-05

30-44

0.000184

2.73415E-05

0.000184

2.73411E-05

45-59
60

5900786

0.000755

9.69362E-05

5903013

5901072

0.000755

9.69315E-05

5124250

0.001609

0.00027243
0.00046485

5128374

5124948

0.001608

0.000272393

0.002946
0.00089

6
0.000093

0.002944
0.00089

0.000464812
0.000093

:
) :(1 ) (
-1

15

14 -

2.946
0.89 .

) :(2 ) (
-1

60

2.944

59 -45

0.89 .

60

14 -

59-45

14 -

.
-2

0.464

0.464

0.093

0.093 .

-2

60

60

59 -45

29 -15

59 -45

14 -

29 -15

16

) (2

t:

Life

Paired Samples Statistics

Year ) (t
:
) (1

Std. Error
Mean
4.71E-05
4.71E-05

Std. Deviation
5
1.0542E-04
5
1.0540E-04

Sig.
.000

t:

Correlation
1.000

Paired Samples Statistics

Std. Error
Mean
2.78E-04
2.77E-04

Std. Deviation
5
6.2054E-04
5
6.2000E-04

Pair
1

BMX
BQX

Paired Samples Correlations

Mean
5.89E-04
5.89E-04

Mean
9.30E-05
9.30E-05

N
BMX & BQX

Pair 1

Paired Samples Test

Paired Differences
AMX
AQX

Pair
1
)Sig. (2-tailed
.285

df
4

t
1.233

95% Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Std. Error
Mean Std. Deviation Mean Lower Upper
Pair 1 BMX - BQX 8.76E-09 1.5891E-08 7.11E-09 -1.1E-08 2.85E-08

Paired Samples Correlations

Correlation
1.000

Sig.
.000

N
AMX & AQX

Pair 1

t 0.005
"

Paired Samples Test

Paired Differences

)Sig. (2-tailed
.256

df
4

t
1.325

95% Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Std. Error
Mean Std. Deviation Mean Lower Upper
Pair 1 AMX - AQX 3.27E-07 5.5248E-07 2.47E-07 -3.6E-07 1.01E-06

Life Year "

.%95

t 0.005

"

Life Year "

x ( x x

Calendar Year

.%95

x
2

x + 2

17

The Census Formula

14 - :
014

c
0 14

. E xc , E x
1
] )[ Px ( 0) + Px +1 (1
2

= m014

6478
=
32448816
= 0.0002
479
=
32448816
= 0.0000147617

= E xc

1
E x = E xc + x
2

m014

:
14 -
1
] )[ Px ( 0) + Px +1 (1
2

= E xc

1
( 7896619 + 4886494 ) + 1 ( 8061494 + 4733741
2
2
1
1
) + ( 8231505 + 4747657 ) + ( 8163437 + 4931667
2
2
1
) + ( 7757017 + 4588000
2
= 32448816

= E 0c14

) (2

14 - :
014

E 014

6478
32452055
= 0.00019962
=
,

1
* 014
2
1
= 32448816 + * 6478
2
= 32452055

E 014 = E 0c14 +

014

E 014

E 014 = E 0c14 +

= q 014

479
32449055
= 0.0000147616
=

,
1
* 014
2
1
= 32448816 + * 479
2
= 32449055

= q 014

....
:
) (15

) (1

18

m
x

E xc

m x

E x

E x

q x

0.76

3244881
0-14

6
2314540

0.0002

1.47617E-05

32452055

32449055

0.00019962

1.47616E-05

15-29

1
1392432

0.000249

5.9191E-05

23148283

23146086

0.00024905

5.91893E-05

30-44

0.000291

4.32337E-05
0.00010778

13926354

13924628

0.0002911

4.32328E-05

45-59

5307071

0.000839

1
0.00053386

5309298

5307357

0.00083891

0.000107775

60

2614889

0.003154

6
0.00075883

2619013

2615587

0.0031489

0.000533723

0.004733

0.00472757

0.000758682

0.00095

0.0095

0.0015

0.00015

-
0.15 .

60
59 -45
29 -15
14 -
.

:
) :(1 ) (
-1

) :(2 ) (
-1

4.73

- 4.733

0.95 .

60

0.95 .

60

59 -45

59-45

14 -

14 -

.
-2

.
-2

-
0.76

19

0.15

Paired Samples Test

Paired Differences

60
59 -45
29 -15
14 -

.

)Sig. (2-tailed
4
.328

df

t
1.112

t 0.005
"

Calendar Year "

.%95
) (2
.

t:

Calendar Year )

Paired Samples Statistics

(t :
) (1
.

Std. Error
Std. Deviation
Mean
5
2.1625E-04 9.67E-05
5
2.1619E-04 9.67E-05

t:

Std. Deviation
5
1.2607E-03
5
1.2586E-03

Mean
9.47E-04
9.46E-04

Mean
1.52E-04
1.52E-04

Pair
1

BMX
BQX

Paired Samples Correlations

Paired Samples Statistics

Std. Error
Mean
5.64E-04
5.63E-04

95% Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Std. Error
Mean Std. Deviation Mean Lower Upper
Pair 1 AMX - AQX 1.08E-06 2.1752E-06 9.73E-07 -1.6E-06 3.78E-06

Sig.
.000
AMX
AQX

Correlation
1.000

Pair
1

N
BMX & BQX

Pair 1

Paired Samples Test

Paired Differences

Paired Samples Correlations

Sig.
.000

Correlation
1.000

N
5

AMX & AQX

Pair 1

)Sig. (2-tailed
.342

df
4

t
1.077

95% Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Std. Error
Mean Std. Deviation Mean Lower Upper
Pair 1 BMX - BQX 3.03E-08 6.3020E-08 2.82E-08 -4.8E-08 1.09E-07

t 0.005
"

Calendar Year "

20

-4

.%95

.
-5

:
-1

-2

-3

) ( Y:

-15

24.

60

1421

1405 .

%31

) 59-25(.

1405 . %17

1405.

) +

(.

.

Y:
Y = 0.07556 x 1 +2.166 x 2 0.644 x 3 +0.354 x 4
- 21.502x 6 + 6.799x 7 + 6.799x 7 + 65.064x 10
- 951585

-6 ) (R square 0.96

( Y

.%96

21

-7 f 13379.411
%5

%3.54 .%95
-12

) 21.502- = ( x6

%10

-8 ) 0.07556 = ( x1

%215.02 .%95

%10

-13

) 6.799 = ( x7

%10

%0.8 .%95

-9 24-15
) 2.166 = ( x 2

%67.99
.%95

%10

-14 ) 1.346 = ( x8

%10

%21.6 .%95

-10 60
) 0.644- = ( x3

%13.46 .%95
-15 ) 65.064 = ( x10

%10

%10

%6.44 .%95

%650.64 .%95

-11

-16

) 59-25( ) 0.354 = ( x 4

%10

22

-17

60

59 -45

14 -

The Census

.Formula

-18
:

- 2.946
0.89 .

60
59 -45
14 -
.
-
0.464
0.093 .

-
0.76
0.15 .
60
59 -45
29 -15
14 - .

:
-1
.
-2
.
-3

60

59 -45

...

29 -15 14 -
.
-19
:

- 4.733
0.95 .

-4

.
-5
.

23

-6
.
-7


.
-8

.
-9

-15


.
-16

.
-17

) (

-10

.
%20 .
-11
.
-12


.
-13

.
-14

.

:
(1 )" .(1994

" -
.
(2 ).(1967

. :
.
(3 1395) .( .

. : .

24
3) Campbell, B.J., Campbell, F.A., (1986). Safety
belt Law Experience in Four Foreign Countries
Compared to the United States, Foundation for
Traffic Safety Research, Falls Church, VA.
4) Campbell, B.J., Campbell, F.A., (1988). Injury
reduction and belt use associated with occupant

( 4
" .( 1411)

"
:
.

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