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1 . By August, 1 998, it appears the USG had strategic warning that Usama bin Laden and al
Qaeda posed a serious threat to U.S. national security. How did the government react?
• Did the USG appreciate the terrorist threat, and did it devise an appropriate strategy to
counter that threat?
• Were the agencies fully on board with the government's strategy?
• Did the strategy include all the appropriate instruments at the government's disposal to fight
terrorism? Were the agencies wielding their instruments effectively?
With these questions in mind, we anticipate policy recommendations emerging from the
following areas of concern:
Leadership'.
• Was there a failure of leadership on the part of the White House in its lack of clear guidance
on how to respond to al Qaeda and effectively communicate policy and/or shape public
opinion to support policy?
• Were there failures at different levels of leadership within the agencies to respond to national
security policy (for example, within the Department of Defense)?
Priorities:
• Was there a failure to put counterterrorism as the national security priority on the part of the
White House? -on the part of agencies?
Instruments:
• Were there impediments inherent to or imposed upon instruments of counterterrorism policy
that limited their effectiveness (for example, legal restraints imposed on the CIA's ability to
target UBL)?
2. With the attacks on the U.S. September 1 1th, counterterrorism has now become the
government's national security priority, receiving primary focus and resources. But is the
government's current strategy putting too much emphasis on "swatting flies", and not focusing
sufficiently on the longer term goals of "draining the swamp" and ensuring the strongest possible
defensive posture at home? In other words, is the government focusing too much on picking off
individual agents of terrorism rather than dealing with the long-term threat of radical Islam, and
implementing a broad range of effective security measures to prevent another attack on America?
Longer-term strategies:
• Preventing the rise of terrorist sanctuaries;
• Shaping public opinion/educating the American public to appreciate the threat of terrorism in
order to allow policy makers to pursue all necessary options in the war on terrorism;
• Maintaining a defensive posture to effectively defend the homeland;
• Public diplomacy: committing resources to change negative attitudes toward the U.S. and
address the root causes of terrorism.
Unclassified - Commission Sensitive
DRAFT 7/25/03
Outline of Team Three Monograph on Counterterrorism Policy
I. How did the United States try to fight terrorism before 9-11?
A. Narrative: What did senior decision makers see as the U.S. "strategy" infighting
terrorism ? In fighting al-Qa 'ida ?
3. Was it shared with the field (commands, CIA stations, diplomatic posts,
etc)? How was it understood by those in the field?
5. How did the strategy evolve over time and adapt to developments?
b) What were the "windows for the use of force" for each considered
response and did the U.S.G. miss these "windows"?
(1) To counterterrorism
2. Did the DoD and the military consider the full range of its capabilities?
(1) To counterterrorism
e) What was the extent of the DoD's cooperation with the CIA? To
what extent did it support the CIA's covert action mission?
f) What steps, between 1998-2001, did the DoD prepare for a 9-11
attack?
(1) To counterterrorism
e) How legalistic were the lawyers? What was their relationship with
those operating in the field?
g) Was the legal strategy coordinated and consistent with the overall
U.S. strategy?
(1) To counterterrorism
5. Coordination
a) Did agencies coordinate with each other? How did they do so?
7. Did support and attention extend to the USG field offices, which would be
coordinating efforts in the field?
1. What gaps existed, if any, given the threat that was emerging?
5. Why did policymakers select cruise missiles strikes after the 1998
Embassy bombings. Why were other responses not employed?
7. Given the gaps in our strategy, was sufficient attention given to homeland
defense?
1. Was Bin Ladin recognized as a problem during his time in Sudan? Was
al-Qa'ida? To what extent did we discuss the Bin Ladin and al-Qa'ida
issues with Sudan? What about the presence of terrorists in general?
3. What leverage did the United States have with Sudan? With its
neighbors?
4. What instruments were considered for pressing Sudan? Which ones were
used and why?
2. What other goals did the United States have in Afghanistan? With its
neighbors? To what extent did regional relations shape our Afghan policy?
3. What leverage did the United States have over the Taliban? Were there
indirect forms of leverage (e.g. through Pakistan)?
4. What instruments were considered? Which ones were used and why?
C. Was stopping al-Qa 'ida apriority in the many permissive environments in which it
operated?
b) What other goals did the United States have in these countries?
How much did these conflict with our counterterrorism agenda?
III. To what extent did the following bear on our efforts to fight terrorism and al-Qa'ida?
A. Conflicting priorities/focus
B. Resources
4. Regimes that did not enjoy close relations with the United States
A. Sufficient m oney ?
B. Sufficient focus?
C. Degree of institutionalization?
V. Are we doing the right thing now? (And is the lack of attacks tied to this?)
B. Iraq
C. MEPP
E. Anti-Americanism
F. Are we encouraging other countries (Le. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan) to cooperate
and address terrorism? What is the quality and sincerity of their efforts?