Trends in Wisconsin Streamflow Dynamics

(2012 research)

50+ Years of consecutive discharge records from USGS

37 Locations met requirements

Mean discharge rates statistically analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test

Fig 1. Sample of discharge values used for trend analysis.

History

Methods

Discharge

Precipitation

Comparisons

A New Approach (Rivers)

Identify river gauges that have 25, 50, and 75 consecutive years worth of daily records from the USGS
25 Years= 9,131 Days x 75 Locations 50 Years= 18,262 Days x 47 Locations 75 Years= 27,393 Days x 26 Locations = 684,825 = 858,314 = 712,218

= 2,255,357

Examine mean, high, and low flow rates (90th & 10th percentiles)
Percentiles calculated from daily values for each year

Test for trends with Mann-Kendall analysis

History

Methods

Discharge

Precipitation

Comparisons

A New Approach (Precipitation)

Identify precipitation gauges that have 50 years of daily records from NOAA Issues with data
Data incomplete
-9999 Missing completely

Solution
Site must have 95% of total records
18,262 x .95 = 17,349 Missing data cannot be consecutive
> 2 weeks

32 Locations fit parameters

Test for trends with Mann-Kendall analysis

History

Methods

Discharge

Precipitation

Comparisons

Mann-Kendall
Nonparametric Conservatively weighs outliers
Slope of -1.056 vs -.823 Kendall's tau S Var(S) Sen's slope: p-value (Two-tailed) alpha -0.220 -416.000 27101.333 -0.823 0.012 0.05

History

Methods

Discharge

Precipitation

Comparisons

Mann-Kendall (No Trend)

Summary statistics: VariableObservations Obs. with Obs. missing without datamissing Minimum data Maximum Mean Std. deviation Discharge (cfs) 67 0 67 700.000 4700.000 1621.851 800.786

Mann-Kendall trend test / Two-tailed test (Discharge (cfs)): Kendall's tau -0.088 S -195.000 Var(S) 34137.667 p-value (Two-tailed) 0.294 alpha 0.05 The exact p-value could not be computed. An approximation has been used to compute the p-value. Test interpretation: H0: There is no trend in the series Ha: There is a trend in the series As the computed p-value is greater than the significance level alpha=0.05, one cannot reject the null hypothesis H0. The risk to reject the null hypothesis H0 while it is true is 29.37%. Continuity correction has been applied. Ties have been detected in the data and the appropriate corrections have been applied.

History

Methods

Discharge

Precipitation

Comparisons

Discharge Trends (Mean Daily)

(1987-2011)

25 Years
History Methods

50 Years
Discharge
Precipitation

75 Years
Comparisons

Discharge Trends (Mean Daily)

(1962-2011)

25 Years
History Methods

50 Years
Discharge
Precipitation

75 Years
Comparisons

Discharge Trends (Mean Daily)

(1937-2011)

25 Years
History Methods

50 Years
Discharge
Precipitation

75 Years
Comparisons

Discharge Trends (Mean Daily-25 Years)

(1987-2011)

25 Years
History Methods

25 Years
Discharge
Precipitation

25 Years
Comparisons

Discharge Trends (Mean Daily-25 Years)

(1962-2011)

(1962-1986)

(1962-1986)

25 Years 50 Years
History Methods

25 Years
Discharge
Precipitation

25 Years 25 Years
Comparisons

Discharge Trends (Mean Daily-25 Years)

(1937-2011)

(1937-1961) (1937-1961)

25 Years
History

75 Years
Methods

25 Years
Discharge
Precipitation

25 Years
Comparisons

(1987-2011)

(1962-2011)

(1937-2011)

Long Term

(1987-2011)

(1962-1986)

(1937-1961)

25 Years

History

Methods

Discharge

Precipitation

Comparisons

Discharge Trends- (90

25 Years (1987-2011)

90th Percentile
th

& 10th Percentile)

10th Percentile

History Methods

Northern Regions
o

Decreasing trends are primarily being observed in the mid flows only

Southern Regions
o

Increasing trends largely being seen in all flow rates

Precipitation Comparisons

Discharge

Discharge Trends- (90

50 Years (1962-2011)

90th Percentile
th

& 10th Percentile)

10th Percentile

Western Region
o

Increasing trends do not appear in the 90th percentile flows

History

Methods

Discharge

Precipitation

Comparisons

Discharge Trends- (90

25 Years (1962-1986)

90th Percentile
th

& 10th Percentile)

10th Percentile

History Methods

Statewide
o

All regions show a general increase in precipitation

Central region
o

This area exhibits fewer increasing trends in the 90th percentile

Precipitation Comparisons

Discharge

Discharge Trends- (90

75 Years (1937-2011)

90th Percentile
th

& 10th Percentile)

10th Percentile

History

Methods

Discharge

Precipitation

Comparisons

Discharge Trends- (90

25 Years (1937-1961)

90th Percentile
th

& 10th Percentile)

10th Percentile

History

Methods

Discharge

Precipitation

Comparisons

Precipitation Trends- (reminder)

Identify precipitation gauges that have 50 years of daily records from NOAA Issues with data
Data incomplete
-9999 Missing completely

Solution
Site must have 95% of total records
18,262 x .95 = 17,349 Missing data cannot be consecutive
> 2 weeks

32 Locations fit parameters

(incorrect map)

Test for trends with Mann-Kendall analysis

History

Methods

Discharge

Precipitation

Comparisons

Precipitation Trends

25 Years

(1962-2011) (1962-2011)

25 Years

(1962-1986)

(1987-2011)

50 Years
History Methods Discharge

Precipitation

Comparisons

Precipitation/Discharge- (50 Years)

Precipitation

Discharge

(1962-2011)
History Methods Discharge Precipitation

(1962-2011)
Comparisons

Precipitation/Discharge- (25 Years)

Precipitation

Discharge

(1962-1986)
History Methods Discharge

(1962-1986)
Precipitation

Comparisons

Precipitation/Discharge- (25 Years)

Precipitation

Discharge

(1987-2011)
History Methods Discharge Precipitation

(1987-2011)
Comparisons