N KRTK EKTE

29 07 2013

in, ekonomik bymenin yavalamas zerine nlemler paketi aklad. in bymek zorunda! in mutlaka yksek byme hzlarna ulamak zorunda. in bunu hem halkn doyurmak iin hem de dnya eko nomisini dengede tutmak iin yapmaya mecbur. Eer in byme hzn artramazsa, hem i piyasalarn hem de d piyasalarn kayglarn nleyemez. in iin nlemler paketi ok byk neme sahip. nk sz konusu nlemler inin byme hzndaki azalmay tersine evirmezse, i ler ktye gidebilir in kk ve orta lekli iletmeler iin vergi indirimleri uygulayacak. Pekin ynetimi aylk cirosu 3.250 USDden az iletmelerden alnan katma deer vergisi ve ciro vergisini askya ald. Sz konusu uygulamann en az alt milyon iletmeye fayda salamas bekleniyor. Bu sayede milyonlarca kii iin istihdam ve gelir temin edilecek. Kk iletmelerin ihracatn artrmaya ynelik tedbirler de yrrle konuldu. Y eni dzenlemeye gre, gmrk ilemlerinde brokratik uygulamalar azaltlacak ve alnan harlar indirilecek. Ekonomideki byme hznda azalma yaanmas, ncelikle kk ve orta byklkteki iletmeleri olumsuz etkiledii iin, Pekin sorunun zm ve etkilerinin hafifletilmesi iin atlacak admlarda ncelii yine ayn kategorideki kurululara verdi. Ayrca ekonominin daha da canlanmas iin ihracatlara uygulanan har ve vergilerde indirim yaplacak. Bunun yan sra demiryolu yatrmlar ve bununla balantl projeler hzlandrlacak. ncelikli kabul edilen demiryolu projeleri sayesinde inde demir elik sektrnn hzla bymesi bekleniyor. Ayrca sz konusu altyap yatrm sayesinde lkede istihdam orannda art temin edilecek Ayrca demiryolu projelerinin finansman iin bir fon kurulacak. Devletin finanse edecei bu fon yine finans kayna retiminde deerlendirilecek. Pekin Ynetimi, fonun finansman iin piyasaya devlet tahvilleri sunacak. Keza fonun temel ilevi yatrmclar sz konusu pr ojelere ynlendirmek olacak. Yatrmclar bu fon vastasyla ehirleraras ve ehir ii demiryollarnda mlkiyet ve ynetim hakkna sahip olacak. inin ekonomik bymesi pe pee son iki eyrekte yavalad. in ekonomisi klmyor, bymeye devam ediyor; Ama gerekli ykseklikte byme hzna ulaamyor. Dnyann nde gelen ekonomi yaynlarnda yer alan grlerde, in ekonomisinin bu sorununun devam edecei kanaati yer alyor. in hkmeti iin lke ekonomisinde bymede istikrar salanmas ok nemli. nk dnyann ikinci byk ekonomisi olan in , zellikle Avrupa Birliinde ve ABDde yaanan ar ekonomik buhrandan dolay sorun yayor. Hem Avrupa Birliinde yaanan ekonomik duraanlk hem de ABDde de grlen talep d, inde retim ve ihracat istatistiklerinde gerilemeye neden oluyor. O nedenle inde byme oran iinde bulunduumuz yln ilk eyreinde yzde 7,7 ve ikinci eyreinde yzde 7,5 seviyesinde kaydedildi. inde retim son 11 ayn en dk seviyesine indi. Eer inde retimdeki d devam ederse, byme oranndaki azalma da ayn izg iyi srdrebilir. inde ekonomiyi canlandrma iin bavurulacak nlemler esas olarak i piyasay hedef alyor. Geri in daha nce yine i piyasay hareketlendirip, i talebi artrarak ekonomiyi bytmeyi denemiti, ama baarsz olmutu. Buna mukabil ABD ve Avrupa Birlii lkelerinde grlen talep azalmas sonucunda, in ekonomisindeki bymeyi artrabilmek iin yine i piyasalara odaklanan nlemler denemeye karar verdi.

THE WORLD AT THE EDGE OF THE ABYSS IN 2013

05 12 2012

Will the recovery of the US economy heal the world economy. The most logical answer to this question is possibly. The question may be asked differently and perhaps that is better: will the fall of the US economy into the abyss collapse the world economy? The only possible answer to this question is yes, definitely. Surveys indicate that the US public opinion take the fiscal cliff very seriously. The world press, economic experts and writers claim that the fiscal cliff will have very important consequences for the US and the world economy. 2013 may later be termed the year of the fiscal cliff. To get to the point more directly, it might be termed the year of the second dip. The organisation CNN/ORC International has published a survey. Two thirds of respondents have deemed the fiscal cliff to be a serious problem. Furthermore, although not all respondents are economists, they are all aware that a cut in spending and a rise in taxes will cause a crisis. We might therefore assume that all relevant institutions such as the US Treasury, the FED, the IMF and others are aware of the impending disaster. Possibilities Of course it is possible to list a number of scenarios, speculations and assumptions. On the top of the list might come the idea that the USA will allow the system to collapse under supervision, like an old building , and will set up a new system in its place. The system is no longer functioning. Of course in terms of the neo-liberal philosophy a crisis is just a stage in the natural functioning of the economy and is not an essentially bad thing. It is the natural course of events and a genuine component of the system. It is both the beginning and grounds for new opportunities. However, things which may take place as a result of the exacerbation of the crisis, such as urban unrest or a wave of famine may endanger the continuation of the system. The pressure of rising debts and the necessity of high rates of growth could when combined lead to desperation. The necessity to

save on the one hand and to spend and consume on the other may derail the train. The world has to make a great choice in the dilemma brought on by the crisis. The system is approaching a very difficult juncture. Therefore, if it is impossible to save the global system from the crisis, to save the world of the crisis ridden system might be the better alternative. Austerity and conjectural aid which has been carried out until now, including bank recoveries, cash injections and aid sent to states have only fed the monster. the monster was not weakened in this process, it did not go on a diet, it maintained its strength. of course, as is the nature of neoliberalism, money was made during the crisis and some profits grew. But the system can no longer feed the monster. It may be thought that the USA intends to devalue its debts arising from the crisis. If the USA is not going to tear down and re-establish the global economic and financial system, it may undertake partial repairs. From this perspective, some inflation is good. Inflation will reduce debts. The USAs fears may thus be alleviated. The enemy-friend China, which has in its possession an important part of the USAs state bonds, may thus experience problems. In any case the fiscal cliff which will result from the USA making big spending cuts and tax increases in 2013 will affect everybody, but it will affect those who have not made the necessary preparation and those who make a habit of being surprised at every development the most. In 2013 and successive years, the USA may lower spending, increase taxes or both, the results will not change. Expenditure of some kind will decrease with a fall in living standards and the consequent rise in unemployment. Fitchs warnings That this process will have serious and perhaps even permanent consequences for the US, as well as the world economy is the strongest possibility. That is why the analyses of important credit ratings agencies such as Fitch must be paid more attention than usual. Fitch foresees US unemployment rising beyond 10 percent in the coming process. This is significant as in October 2012, US unemployment stood at 7.9 percent. So Fitch thinks that unemployment will rise by more than 2 percent over the figures given by the Us Department of Labour. For an economy the size of the USA, 2 percent rise in unemployment is massive. If Fitch is right and the rate of unemployment in the USA increases at such a rate, it may be difficult to find a way out of stagnation. In that case the US Congress will have to make a choice in its fight with the crisis monster. The USA may choose to sacrifice the next few years, thousands of firms and hundreds of thousands of jobs in order to complete the restoration of the system towards the next presidential election. An important detail here is that fiscal cliff refers to those measures to be taken by the US Congress to reduce the budget deficit. Since the USA will have to take measures to reduce its large budget deficit at some point, the fiscal cliff is inevitable. With a budget deficit t he size of the USAs, any measures taken must also be great and effective. Therefore whatever methodology the US Congress chooses to employ, it needs to lower spending and increase taxation. If other methods had worked, the crisis would not have continued unabated since 2007. The opposite course of supporting spending and consumption while imposing strict rules for the financial markets is also open, but no one seems to want to consider it.