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Daily Technical Report

August 05, 2013

Sensex (19164) / NIFTY (5678)


On Friday, our benchmark indices opened half a percent higher as indicated by the SGX Nifty. However, immense selling pressure right from the opening tick ultimately resulted in a closing almost at the lowest point of the session. On the sectoral front, undoubtedly, the Consumer Durables counters outperformed our benchmark indices; whereas the Realty, PSUs, Power and Metal Counters showed tremendous weakness during the session. The Advance to Decline ratio was strongly in favor of declining counters. (A=742 D=1534) (Sourcewww.bseindia.com )

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Formation
The 89-day EMA and the 89-week EMA are placed at 19472/ 5867 and 18607 / 5624 levels, respectively. The 20-day EMA and the 20-week EMA are placed at 19602 / 5856 and 19458 / 5863, respectively. The weekly Stochastic and Monthly RSI-Smoothened oscillators are signaling a negative crossover; but the daily Stochastic oscillator is contradictory by showing positive crossover. The daily chart depicts a Triangular price pattern and also, we are observing an Upward Sloping Trend Line on the weekly chart. Trading strategy: Last weeks negative closing was followed by yet another pessimistic week as our benchmark indices witnessed tremendous selling pressure. The first sign of caution was the confirmation of a Lower Top on the weekly chart. In our previous report, we had mentioned the possibility of weakness once indices break the low of 19699 / 5869. As a result, indices fell sharply and met with our initial target of 19185 / 5760. However, the selling pressure was so intense that indices could not hold these levels and eventually went on to test the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent up move in Sensex and Nifty, respectively. At this juncture, on the daily chart, we are observing that our benchmark indices are trading within a Triangle (please refer exhibit 2). Also, on the weekly chart, prices are placed exactly at the Upward Sloping Trend Line (please refer exhibit 1) and the 89-week EMA. Hence, it can be considered as a strong support zone for our market. However, the weekly Stochastic and monthly RSISmoothened oscillators are now signaling a negative crossover. This is a sign of weakness and increases the possibility of a breakdown from this major support zone.

Source: Falcon:

Actionable points:
View Resistance Levels Support Levels Neutral 5762 5808 5649 5600

These technical evidences are contradicted by the positive placement of the daily Stochastic oscillator. Going forward the possibility of a near term bounce back cannot be ruled out. In this case, we may witness a bounce towards 19569 19630 / 5808 5865 if indices sustain above 19452 / 5762 level. In case of a bearish scenario, if indices continue to remain below this weeks low then they are likely to test the June 2013 bottom of 18467 / 5566. A sustainable move below this strong support level would confirm a breakdown from major support zone and also, the Lower Top Lower Bottom formation on the weekly chart. This may trigger strong pessimism in our equity markets and indices then may slip towards the immediate support level of 18144 / 5477. Considering the overall negative chart structure, we reiterate our view that any bounce towards 5900 should be used to create fresh short positions. The stop loss for this trade set up would be at 6100 and the initial target would be 5477.

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Daily Technical Report


August 05, 2013

Bank Nifty Outlook - (9998)


On Friday, the Bank Nifty too opened marginally higher inline with our benchmark indices. The price action was almost similar as the index fell nearly one and half percent during the session. We are observing that the continuous fall in Bank Nifty has been arrested after testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (9924). Thursdays daily candle almost resembles a Dragonfly Doji Japanese candlestick pattern. At this juncture, the candlestick pattern needs confirmation in the order to consider its implications. Bullish implications of this pattern will be pronounced once Bank Nifty sustains above Thursdays high of 10220. In this case, it may bounce towards 10352 10450. The daily Stochastic momentum oscillator is also signaling a positive crossover. This increases the possibility of a bounce above 10220. On the flipside, the pattern will be negated below the low of the candle i.e. 9867. In this scenario, we may witness a further correction towards 9814 9619.

Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Weekly Chart

Actionable points:

View Expected Targets Support Levels

Bullish above 10220 10450 10590 9958 9863

Source: Falcon:

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Daily Technical Report


August 05, 2013

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks


SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM ASIANPAINT AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BANKBARODA BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL GRASIM HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INDUSINDBK INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT LUPIN M&M MARUTI NMDC NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RELIANCE RELINFRA SBIN SESAGOA SUNPHARMA TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS ULTRACEMCO S2 18,859 5,583 9,797 1,134 164 486 1,066 1,857 458 334 144 271 288 391 238 116 2,181 294 2,450 914 782 623 1,741 82 590 861 100 366 2,964 321 167 26 630 811 859 833 1,307 93 122 265 494 79 242 838 292 1,641 116 534 279 82 194 1,804 1,712 S1 19,011 5,631 9,898 1,155 168 492 1,085 1,883 473 340 147 281 292 395 246 122 2,210 299 2,495 925 795 627 1,771 85 603 874 102 378 2,987 327 177 28 642 821 875 844 1,322 95 126 272 509 85 258 848 302 1,661 120 545 285 83 198 1,825 1,746 PIVOT 19,231 5,696 10,059 1,176 171 498 1,099 1,916 497 345 150 291 295 401 259 132 2,242 304 2,571 937 811 631 1,811 87 622 897 104 392 3,003 336 192 31 657 836 885 861 1,343 97 131 278 530 93 269 860 318 1,685 125 561 288 85 205 1,837 1,789 R1 19,384 5,744 10,159 1,196 174 504 1,117 1,942 512 350 153 301 299 405 267 138 2,271 310 2,616 948 824 635 1,841 89 635 910 106 405 3,026 341 202 33 669 846 901 872 1,358 99 135 284 545 99 285 870 328 1,705 129 571 294 87 209 1,858 1,823 R2 19,604 5,809 10,320 1,217 178 510 1,131 1,975 537 355 156 311 302 410 280 148 2,304 315 2,692 960 840 639 1,881 91 653 933 108 419 3,042 350 217 35 684 862 910 889 1,379 102 139 290 566 107 296 882 344 1,729 134 587 298 89 216 1,871 1,867

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Daily Technical Report


August 05, 2013
Research Team Tel: 022 - 30940000 E-mail: sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Research Team
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Head Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst

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