TVS Motor Company, 1Q FY 2014

1QFY2014 Result Update | Automobile
August 10, 2013
TVS Motor Company

Performance Highlights
Y/E March (Standalone `cr) Net Sales EBITDA Adj. EBITDA margin (%) Adj. PAT 1QFY14 1,760 98 5.6 52 1QFY13 1,849 108 5.8 51 % chg (yoy) (4.8) (8.4) (22)bp 1.5 4QFY13 1,775 94 5.3 58 % chg (qoq) (0.8) 5.0 31bp (10.8)
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Automobile 1,494 528 0.8 50/28 217,341 1.0 18,789 5,999 TVSM.BO TVSL@IN
`31 `36
12 Months
Source: Company, Angel Research
TVS Motor Company (TVSL) reported a muted set of results for 1QFY2014, which were broadly in-line with our estimates. The net average realization, however, posted a better-than-expected growth of 2.3% qoq aided by higher share of three-wheelers and also due to better realization on the exports front. The company has been impacted the most by the ongoing slowdown in the two-wheeler industry which has led to a significant erosion in its market share in the domestic scooter (down ~500bp to 14.5%) and motorcycle (down ~70bp to 5.5%) segments in FY2013. Going ahead, we expect the operating environment to remain challenging for TVSL in FY2014 as well given the weak demand scenario. Nevertheless, we expect the companys volumes (key to improvement in operating performance) to benefit from the new launches/refreshes that are lined up in FY2014 (new scooter, upgraded Scooty and Star City). Further, the higher margin three-wheeler segment which has been recording robust performance on the back of exports is also expected to benefit from the opening up of new permits in Maharashtra and Delhi. Additionally, TVSL has received the boards approval to divest majority stake (holds 94.5% stake) in its subsidiary, TVS Energy Ltd, which is expected to enable the company to lower its debt burden and boost its profitability. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock. Broadly in-line performance for 1QFY2014: The top-line posted a decline of 4.8% yoy to `1,760cr on the back of the 4.7% yoy decline in total volumes. The volumes continue to be impacted by the slowdown in two-wheeler industry amid rising competition. Three-wheelers however, posted a strong growth of 89.8% yoy driven by impressive exports performance. On the operating front, the EBITDA margin remained stable at 5.6% as the benefits of decline in rawmaterial prices were offset by increase in employee costs (due to salary hikes) and other expenditure (due to higher marketing spends and increase in power and distribution expenses). Net profit stood at `52cr (a growth of 1.5% yoy) and was aided by a 70.3% increase in other income and 57.8% decline in interest expense. Outlook and valuation: At `31, TVSL is trading at 5.3x FY2015E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `36.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 57.4 22.7 3.0 16.9
Abs. (%) Sensex TVS Motor
3m (2.8)
1yr 6.8
3yr 3.6
(23.6) (17.9) (53.5)
Key financials (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales % chg Adj. net Profit % chg EBITDA (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2012 7,142 13.6 249 25.3 6.6 5.2 6.0 1.3 22.9 18.5 0.2 2.7 FY2013 7,065 (1.1) 207 (16.8) 5.8 4.4 12.9 1.2 17.3 14.1 0.2 2.8 FY2014E 7,659 8.4 232 11.9 6.0 4.9 6.5 1.1 17.8 16.6 0.1 2.1 FY2015E 8,528 11.3 282 21.9 6.2 5.9 5.3 0.9 18.9 18.6 0.1 1.3
Yaresh Kothari
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of August 8, 2013
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
TVS Motor Company | 1QFY2014 Result Update
Exhibit 1: Quarterly financial performance (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales Consumption of RM (% of Sales) Staff Costs (% of Sales) Purchase of goods (% of Sales) Other Expenses (% of Sales) Total Expenditure Operating Profit OPM (%) Interest Depreciation Other Income PBT (excl. Extr. Items) Extr. Income/(Expense) PBT (incl. Extr. Items) (% of Sales) Provision for Taxation (% of PBT) Reported PAT Adj PAT Adj. PATM Equity capital (cr) Reported EPS (`) Adjusted EPS (`)
1QFY14 1,760 1,191 67.6 113 6.4 61 3.5 297 16.9 1,662 98 5.6 7 31 9 69 69 3.9 17 24.9 52 52 2.9 47.5 1.1 1.1
1QFY13 1,849 1,303 70.5 102 5.5 58 3.1 278 15.1 1,742 108 5.8 15 31 5 66 66 3.6 15 22.7 51 51 2.8 47.5 1.1 1.1
% chg (yoy) (4.8) (8.6) 10.4 5.9 6.7 (4.6) (8.4) (57.8) 1.5 70.3 4.4 4.4 14.5 1.5 1.5
4QFY13 1,775 1,200 67.6 93 5.2 69 3.9 320 18.0 1,681 94 5.3 6 35 10 63 (91) (28) (1.6) 5 (18.1) (33) 58 3.3 47.5
% chg (qoq) (0.8) (0.8) 21.8 (11.2) (7.1) (1.2) 5.0 17.4 (9.4) (11) 9.4 (349.3) 242.2 (237.3) (258.5) (10.8)
FY2013 7,065 4,945 70.0 407 5.8 151 2.1 1,152 16.3 6,656 409 5.8 48 130 24 254 (91) 164 2.3 48 29.1 116 207 2.9 47.5
FY2012 7,142 5,117 71.7 370 5.2 144 2.0 1,041 14.6 6,672 469 6.6 57 118 22 316 316 4.4 67 21.3 249 249 3.5 47.5 5.2 5.2
% chg (yoy) (1.1) (3.4) 10.0 5.3 10.7 (0.2) (12.9) (15.9) 11.0 9.8 (19.6) (48.3) (29.4) (53.4) (16.9)
1.5 1.5
(0.7) 1.2
(258.5) (10.8)
2.4 4.4
(53.4) (16.9)
Exhibit 2: 1QFY2014 Actual vs Angel estimates

Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adj. PAT
Actual 1,760 98 5.6 52
Estimates 1,749 100 5.7 50
Variation (%) 0.7 (2.0) (15)bp 3.0
August 10, 2013
Exhibit 3: Quarterly volume performance

(unit) Total volumes Domestic Exports Motorcycles Domestic Exports Total motorcycles Scooters Domestic Exports Total scooters Mopeds Domestic Exports Total mopeds Three-wheelers Domestic Exports Total three-wheelers 2,096 15,136 17,232 3,267 5,812 9,079 (35.8) 160.4 89.8 3,103 11,193 14,296 (32.5) 35.2 20.5 15,616 33,574 49,190 14,201 24,444 38,645 10.0 37.4 27.3 180,770 836 181,606 203,247 628 203,875 (11.1) 33.1 (10.9) 208,502 1,247 209,749 (13.3) (33.0) (13.4) 788,761 3,308 792,069 776,866 9,076 785,942 1.5 (63.6) 0.8 98,429 3,694 102,123 105,366 7,466 112,832 (6.6) (50.5) (9.5) 93,936 3,881 97,817 4.8 (4.8) 4.4 424,188 17,369 441,557 497,117 32,199 529,316 (14.7) (46.1) (16.6) 140,981 52,488 193,469 142,392 50,577 192,969 (1.0) 3.8 0.3 137,707 49,641 187,348 2.4 5.7 3.3 558,468 191,338 749,806 621,722 221,392 843,114 (10.2) (13.6) (11.1) 1QFY14 494,430 422,276 72,154 1QFY13 518,755 454,272 64,483 % chg (yoy) (4.7) (7.0) 11.9 4QFY13 509,210 443,248 65,962 % chg (qoq) (2.9) (4.7) 9.4 FY2013 2,032,622 1,787,033 245,589 FY2012 2,197,017 1,909,906 287,111 % chg (yoy) (7.5) (6.4) (14.5)
Top-line growth remains under pressure due to subdued volumes: TVSLs top-line registered a decline of 4.8% yoy (0.8% qoq) to `1,760cr, which was broadly in-line with our expectation of `1,749cr. The top-line was impacted by a 4.7% yoy decline in total volumes following a 6.4% yoy decline in two-wheeler volumes which continue to be impacted by the slowdown in demand amid increasing competition. The net average realization however, posted a better-than-expected growth of 2.3% qoq (0.3% yoy) aided by higher share of three-wheelers (3.5% vs 2.8% in 4QFY2013 and 1.8% in 1QFY2013) and also due to better realization on the exports front. While motorcycle sales remained flat yoy (up 3.3% qoq); scooter and moped volumes posted a significant decline of 9.5% and 10.9% yoy respectively. The three-wheeler segment on the other hand continued its strong performance (up 89.8% yoy and 20.5% mom) driven by an impressive growth of 160.4% yoy in export volumes.
August 10, 2013
Exhibit 4: Volumes continue to remain under pressure

(units) 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 1.1 1.7 (3.0) (2.1) 15.3 15.1 Total volume yoy growth (RHS) (%) 20.0 15.0 10.0 (3.6) 5.0 (4.7) 0.0 (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0) (25.0)
Exhibit 5: Net average realization up 2.3% qoq

(`) 36,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 (1.4) 8.1 6.7 7.1 10.0 5.9 4.2 0.3 Net average realization yoy growth (RHS) 12.7 (%) 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 (2.0) (4.0)
535,008
604,226
529,681
528,102
518,755
485,923
518,357
509,210
31,911
32,300
32,960
30,541
35,098
34,196
34,344
34,409 4QFY13
14.2
100,000 0
(19.6)
30,000 29,000 28,000
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
Exhibit 6: Top-line growth in-line with estimates

( ` cr) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 7.8 0.1 (15.1) 5.9 1.3 8.4 (4.8) 25.3 Net sales (LHS) 23.2 Net sales growth (RHS) (%) 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0)
Exhibit 7: Domestic market share trend

(%) 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.2 2.9 14.3 6.3 15.2 6.9 13.5 5.6 13.6 5.9 12.8 5.4 13.1 5.3 3.3 20.5 Scooters Three Wheelers 22.9 19.4 15.4 15.3 16.0 12.6 12.9 5.6 12.5 12.0 5.6 1.9 Motor Cycles Total Two Wheelers
1,746
1,991
1,775
1,637
1,849
1,691
1,799
1,775
500 0
1,760
12.6 5.8
3.1
2.3
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14 1QFY14
Source: Company, SIAM, Angel Research
EBITDA margin remains stable at 5.6%: On the operating front, the EBITDA margin remained stable at 5.6%, largely in-line with our expectations of 5.7%. While the softening of commodity prices benefitted the operating performance; increase in employee costs (due to salary hikes) and other expenditure impacted the EBITDA margins adversely. Other expenditure surged 6.7% yoy due to higher marketing spends and increase in power and distribution expenses; however, it declined 7.1% sequentially led by cost control initiatives. Employee expenditure too surged by 10.4% yoy due to annual salary hikes. Raw-material expenditure on the other hand declined 8% yoy (1.4% qoq) on account of softening of commodity prices. The Management expects to benefit from the softening commodity prices going ahead; however, other expenditure is likely to remain at higher levels given the weak domestic demand scenario and increasing competition which would necessitate higher promotional expenditure.
August 10, 2013
35,191
200,000
494,430
Exhibit 8: EBITDA margin remains stable

(%) 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 6.7 7.0 7.2 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.9 5.3 5.6 EBITDA margin 76.9 75.9 73.2 73.7 73.6 Raw material cost/sales 73.6 72.8 71.5 71.1
Exhibit 9: Lower interest cost aids bottom-line

( ` cr) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 3.4 3.9 3.2 Net profit (LHS) 3.5 2.8 2.7 2.9 Net profit margin (RHS) (%) 4.5 3.3 4.0 2.9 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0
59
77
57
57
51
45
52
58
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
52 1QFY14
10
0.5 0.0
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
Adjusted net profit aided by lower interest cost: Net profit for the quarter stood at `52cr (a growth of 1.5% yoy), in-line with our estimates of `50cr, aided by 70.3% increase in other income and 57.8% decline in interest expense.
August 10, 2013
4QFY13
Investment arguments
Success of new launches key to volume growth: TVSL registered a 7.5% yoy decline in its total volumes in FY2013 due to the slowdown in two-wheeler demand and rising competitive intensity in the sector. Nonetheless, TVSL plans to launch two scooters, one motorcycle and a diesel three-wheeler in FY2014, and we believe the success of these new launches is key for the company to register volume growth going ahead. We expect the new launches coupled with the recent launch of Phoenix to enable TVSL to register a volume growth of ~6% over FY2013-15E. Limited room for margin expansion: The Management expects operating margins to remain under pressure going ahead as rising competition coupled with new launches would necessitate higher advertisement and promotional expenditure which would negate the benefits of softening commodity prices. We believe that will keep margins under pressure. We expect the companys margin to remain around 6% in FY2014/15. Tie-up with BMW positive in the long run: TVSL has entered into a long term co-operation agreement with BMW's motorcycle division, BMW Motorrad, to develop and produce new series of motorcycles that will cater to the sub 500cc segment. As a part of the deal, TVSL will invest EUR20mn in the collaboration, which is expected to introduce a new product in 2015. We see this as a positive development for TVSL and a step in the right direction as the BMW association will provide technological access to the company. The tie-up is also expected to help TVSL expand its presence in the premium motorcycle space, where it currently offers the Apache (160cc and 180cc) series. In the near term though, we believe that this agreement is unlikely to alter the current positioning of the company in the domestic motorcycle industry.
Outlook and valuation

The company has been impacted the most by the ongoing slowdown in the two-wheeler industry which has led to a significant erosion in its market share in the domestic scooter (down ~500bp to 14.5%) and motorcycle (down ~70bp to 5.5%) segments in FY2013. Going ahead, we expect the operating environment to remain challenging for TVSL in FY2014 as well given the weak demand scenario. Nevertheless, we expect the companys volumes (key to improvement in operating performance) to benefit from the new launches/refreshes that are lined up in FY2014 (new scooter, upgraded Scooty and StaR City). Further, the higher margin three-wheeler segment, which has been recording robust performance on the back of exports, is also expected to benefit from the opening up of new permits in Maharashtra and Delhi. Additionally, TVSL has received boards approval to divest majority stake (holds 94.5% stake) in its subsidiary, TVS Energy Ltd, which is expected to enable the company to lower its debt burden and boost profitability. We largely maintain our FY2014/15 volume, revenue and earnings estimates for TVSL. We expect the company to register a volume CAGR of ~6% over FY2013-15E aided by ~30% and ~6% volume CAGR in the three-wheeler and two-wheeler segments respectively.
August 10, 2013
Exhibit 10: Change in estimates

Y/E March Net Sales (` cr) OPM (%) EPS (`)
Earlier Estimates 7,715 6.0 5.0 8,584 6.1 5.8
Revised Estimates 7,659 6.0 4.9 8,528 6.2 5.9
% chg (0.7) 0bp (2.0) (0.7) 17bp 2.6
FY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015E
At the current market price of `31, TVSL is trading at 5.3x FY2015E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `36.
Exhibit 11: Key assumptions

Y/E March Total volume (units) Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds Three-Wheelers Change yoy (%) Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds Three-Wheelers Domestic (units) Exports (units)
FY2010 1,536,895 640,965 309,501 571,563 14,866 16.3 1.0 25.7 31.2 205.0 1,371,481 165,414
FY2011 2,032,404 836,821 452,006 703,717 39,860 32.2 30.6 46.0 23.1 168.1 1,797,993 234,411
FY2012 2,197,017 843,114 529,316 785,942 38,645 8.1 0.8 17.1 11.7 (3.0) 1,910,551 286,466
FY2013 2,032,622 749,806 441,557 792,069 49,190 (7.5) (11.1) (16.6) 0.8 27.3 1,786,994 245,628
FY2014E 2,097,725 779,798 428,310 815,831 73,785 3.2 4.0 (3.0) 3.0 50.0 1,814,532 283,193
FY2015E 2,261,464 826,586 471,141 881,098 82,639 7.8 6.0 10.0 8.0 12.0 1,933,552 327,912
Exhibit 12: Angel vs consensus forecast

Angel estimates FY14E FY15E Total op. income (` cr) EPS (`) 7,659 4.9 8,528 5.9 Consensus FY14E FY15E 7,736 4.9 8,518 5.7 Variation (%) FY14E FY15E (1.0) 0.3 0.1 4.4
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 13: One-year forward P/E band

(` ) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 CMP (`) 6x 9x 12x 15x
Exhibit 14: One-year forward P/E chart

(x) 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 One-yr forward P/E Three-yr average P/E
Mar-04
Dec-07
Jan-06
Jan-07
Nov-08
Aug-12
Apr-03
Oct-09
Feb-05
Oct-10
Sep-11
Jul-13
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-12
Dec-12
Apr-11
Feb-10
Nov-09
Nov-11
Feb-12
Sep-10
Sep-12
Apr-13
Jul-09
Jul-11
August 10, 2013
Jul-13
Exhibit 15: One-year forward EV/EBITDA band

(` cr) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 EV (` cr) 4x 6x 8x 10x
Exhibit 16: Two-wheeler stocks performance vs Sensex

TVSL 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 HMCL BJAUT Sensex
Jan-12
Aug-09
Mar-08
Mar-09
Aug-10
Feb-10
Sep-08
Feb-11
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jul-12
Mar-04
Nov-05
Dec-10
Apr-03
Jan-05
Jun-08
Apr-09
Feb-10
Oct-11
Jul-07
Sep-06
Sep-12
Jul-13
Exhibit 17: Automobile - Recommendation summary

Company Ashok Leyland Bajaj Auto Hero MotoCorp Maruti Suzuki Tata Motors TVS Motor Reco. Buy Buy Accumulate Buy Buy Accumulate CMP Tgt. price (`) (`) 13 1,784 1,851 1,386 864 279 31 18 2,099 2,048 1,648 1,103 355 36 Upside (%) 37.3 17.7 10.7 18.9 27.7 27.5 13.3 P/E (x) FY14E FY15E 34.3 14.9 16.6 14.7 13.6 7.2 6.5 7.0 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.2 6.3 5.3 EV/EBITDA (x) FY14E 5.6 10.2 8.5 6.5 7.2 3.5 2.1 FY15E 3.4 8.3 7.3 5.6 5.9 3.1 1.3 RoE (%) FY14E 2.3 38.9 40.1 14.4 23.2 28.5 17.8 FY15E 11.0 36.5 42.1 14.6 21.8 25.1 18.9 FY13-15E EPS CAGR (%) 74.4 15.3 17.5 17.8 13.8 15.8 16.8
Mahindra & Mahindra Buy
Company background
TVS Motor (TVSL), a flagship company of the TVS Group, is the third largest 2W manufacturer in India. The company is present across the motorcycles, scooters and mopeds segments, having a market share of ~6%, ~15% and 100%, respectively. The company successfully ventured into the 3W segment in FY2009 and has garnered a market share of 6.6% as of March 31, 2013. The company has three manufacturing facilities in India, located at Hosur (Tamil Nadu), Mysore (Karnataka) and Solan (Himachal Pradesh) with 2W and 3W capacity of 2.75mn and 75,000 units, respectively. TVSL is also the second largest exporter of two-wheelers in the country.
August 10, 2013
Jul-13
Profit and loss statement (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) Total operating income % chg Total expenditure Net raw material costs Other mfg costs Employee expenses Other EBITDA % chg (% of total op. income) Depreciation & amortization EBIT % chg (% of total op. income) Interest and other charges Other income Recurring PBT % chg Extraordinary income/(exp.) PBT Tax (% of PBT) PAT (reported) ADJ. PAT % chg (% of total op. income) Basic EPS (`) Adj. EPS (`) % chg FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 4,430 18.5 4,243 3,137 133 248 724 187 0.4 4.2 103 85 1.3 1.9 75 67 76 144.9 (32) 108 (12) (11.0) 88 120 306.6 2.7 1.9 2.5 306.6 6,288 41.9 5,896 4,614 171 327 784 392 109.2 6.2 107 285 235.5 4.5 72 36 248 225.7 (4) 252 54 21.2 195 199 65.7 3.2 4.1 4.2 65.6 7,142 13.6 6,672 5,261 202 370 839 469 19.7 6.6 118 352 23.5 4.9 57 22 316 27.5 0 316 67 21.3 249 249 25.3 3.5 5.2 5.2 25.3 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E 7,065 (1.1) 6,656 5,097 234 407 918 409 (12.8) 5.8 130 279 (20.8) 3.9 48 24 254 (19.6) 91 164 48 29.1 116 207 (16.8) 2.9 2.4 4.4 (16.8) 7,659 8.4 7,200 5,477 268 460 996 460 12.3 6.0 137 323 15.8 4.2 40 26 309 21.3 309 77 25.0 232 232 11.9 3.0 4.9 4.9 11.9 8,528 11.3 7,996 6,097 294 520 1,085 531 15.6 6.2 144 388 20.1 4.5 40 29 376 21.9 376 94 25.0 282 282 21.9 3.3 5.9 5.9 21.9
August 10, 2013
Balance sheet statement (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity share capital Reserves & surplus Shareholders Funds Total loans Deferred tax liability Other long term liabilities Long term provisions Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross block Less: Acc. depreciation Net Block Capital work-in-progress Goodwill Investments Long term loans and advances Other noncurrent assets Current assets Cash Loans & advances Other Current liabilities Net current assets Misc. exp. not written off Total Assets 1,909 953 956 27 739 965 101 354 511 734 231 30 1,983 1,972 1,035 938 57 661 96 1,106 6 301 799 1,086 19 1,771 2,154 1,129 1,026 53 931 53 1,078 13 247 819 1,110 (31) 2,031 2,251 1,259 991 56 869 73 1,129 17 302 810 1,202 (73) 1,917 2,363 1,396 966 59 930 73 1,273 66 314 893 1,321 (48) 1,981 2,480 1,540 940 62 1,069 73 1,487 168 367 951 1,439 47 2,191 24 842 865 1,003 115 1,983 48 952 999 633 96 43 1,771 48 1,122 1,169 715 98 49 2,031 48 1,177 1,225 546 93 53 1,917 48 1,337 1,384 446 98 53 1,981 48 1,547 1,595 446 98 53 2,191 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
August 10, 2013
10
Cash flow statement (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) Profit before tax Depreciation Change in working capital Others Other income Direct taxes paid Cash Flow from Operations (Inc.)/Dec. in fixed assets (Inc.)/Dec. in investments Other income Cash Flow from Investing Issue of equity Inc./(Dec.) in loans Dividend paid (Incl. Tax) Others Cash Flow from Financing Inc./(Dec.) in cash Opening Cash balances Net cash credit adjustment Closing Cash balances FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 76 103 103 112 (67) 12 339 (30) (262) 67 (225) 97 33 (102) 28 142 42 83 101 248 107 (67) 35 (36) (54) 234 (93) 78 36 20 24 (295) 60 (218) (428) (174) 101 (79) 6 316 118 63 33 (22) (67) 441 (177) (270) 22 (425) (72) 72 (150) (150) (135) 6 (142) 13 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E 164 130 45 (15) (24) (48) 253 (100) 62 24 (14) (170) 66 (235) 4 13 17 309 137 29 (26) (77) 371 (115) (61) 26 (149) (100) 72 (172) 50 17 66 376 144 8 (29) (94) 405 (120) (139) 29 (231) 72 (72) 102 66 168
August 10, 2013
11
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 0.2 0.9 1.1 (0.0) (0.1) 3.9 (0.2) (0.5) 6.2 (0.3) (0.8) 5.8 (0.4) (1.2) 8.0 (0.5) (1.5) 9.7 2.3 26 17 51 15 3.2 24 14 49 4 3.5 28 13 53 (1) 3.2 28 14 57 (3) 3.3 29 14 57 (5) 3.5 27 14 56 (5) 4.4 0.9 14.3 15.2 16.1 21.3 18.5 17.4 22.9 14.1 14.7 17.3 16.6 16.9 17.8 18.6 19.2 18.9 1.9 1.1 2.4 5.2 8.8 0.3 4.0 4.5 0.8 3.4 12.3 7.0 0.1 12.7 4.9 0.8 3.8 14.6 6.7 (0.1) 13.7 3.9 0.7 3.6 10.1 5.4 (0.2) 9.0 4.2 0.7 4.0 12.7 6.1 (0.3) 10.4 4.5 0.8 4.3 14.8 6.8 (0.5) 11.2 1.9 2.5 4.7 0.6 18.2 4.1 4.2 6.4 1.1 21.0 5.2 5.2 7.7 1.3 24.6 2.4 4.4 5.2 1.2 25.8 4.9 4.9 7.8 1.3 29.1 5.9 5.9 9.0 1.3 33.6 12.5 6.7 1.7 1.9 0.4 13.8 0.8 7.5 4.9 1.5 3.5 0.2 3.7 0.8 6.0 4.1 1.3 4.1 0.2 2.7 0.6 12.9 6.1 1.2 3.8 0.2 2.8 0.6 6.5 4.1 1.1 4.1 0.1 2.1 0.5 5.3 3.5 0.9 4.1 0.1 1.3 0.3 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
August 10, 2013
12
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
TVS Motor Company No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
August 10, 2013
13

TVS Motor Company, 1Q FY 2014

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TVS Motor Company, 1Q FY 2014

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1QFY2014 Result Update | Automobile

August 10, 2013