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Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Auto Ancillary 4,237 (340) 0.5 328/134 54,226 1.0 20,247 6,170 AMAR.BO AMRJ@IN
`277 `305
12 Months
Amara Raja Batteries (AMRJ) reported an extremely strong performance for 1QFY2014, beating our estimates, driven by strong growth in revenues (driven by volumes) and superior EBITDA margins performance. AMRJ has announced an ambitious capital expenditure plan of `750cr to ease the capacity constraints across the product segments that it is currently facing. We expect the company to sustain its growth momentum going ahead, led by widening reach, strong product offerings and increasing capacity. We revise our earnings estimates slightly upwards by 2-3% to account for the strong operating performance during the quarter. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock. Operating performance beats estimates: The top-line recorded a robust growth of 28.4% yoy (11.2% qoq) to `894cr despite the adverse macro-economic environment. The growth was driven by a sustained growth in the four-wheeler replacement battery segment which clocked a double digit volume growth though the OEM demand remained muted. The two-wheeler battery segment too registered a significant growth as the company commenced supplies to Honda Motorcycle and Scooters India during the quarter. The growth in the industrial battery segment remained strong as well led by robust demand for telecom batteries in the replacement segment. According to the Management, the growth was restricted due to the capacity constraints in the automotive as well as the industrial battery segments. The EBITDA margin expanded strongly by 235bp qoq to 16.3% driven by softening of lead prices, price hikes of ~4-5% undertaken in 4QFY2013, and superior product-mix (higher share of replacement as against OEMs). Driven by a strong operating performance and lower depreciation expense, the adjusted bottom-line surged 64.6% qoq (28.5% yoy) to `98cr. Outlook and valuation: Due to the strong operating performance over the last two years, AMRJ has narrowed the valuation gap to the market leader, Exide from 35-45% to ~10% currently (one year forward basis). We expect the company to sustain its strong operating performance and thereby its outperformance relative to Exide aided by the sustained growth in the automotive and industrial battery volumes. The stock has surged ~8% post the strong 1QFY2014 results. At `277, AMRJ is trading at 13.2x FY2015E earnings. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `305 valuing the stock at 14.5x FY2015 earnings.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 52.1 18.5 15.8 13.6
3m 4.0 (14.8)
Yaresh Kothari
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
1QFY14 894 481 53.8 116 13.0 38 4.3 113 12.6 748 145 16.3 0 15 10 140 0 140 15.7 43 30.4 98 98 10.9 17.1 5.7 5.7
1QFY13 696 414 59.5 52 7.4 29 4.2 82 11.8 577 119 17.2 0 13 6 112 0 112 16.1 36 32.3 76 76 10.9 17.1 4.5 4.5
% chg (yoy) 28.4 16.1 125.9 31.6 37.6 29.8 21.7 (31.4) 12.3 64.8 25.1 25.1 17.8 28.5 28.5
4QFY13 804 447 55.6 106 13.2 35 4.4 104 12.9 692 112 13.9 0 27 7 92 0 92 11.5 33 35.4 60 59 7.4 17.1
% chg (qoq) 11.2 7.5 (3.4) 10.1 (1.0) 9.3 (1.7) 8.9 (2.0) 8.2 29.9 (87.0) (45.7) 35.7 52.7 (100.0) 52.4 37.0 30.9 (14.1) 64.1 64.6 48.1 0.0 64.1 64.6
FY2013 2,981 1,732 58.1 263 8.8 127 4.2 388 13.0 2,510 471 15.8 1 66 27 431 (9) 422 14.1 135 32.0 287 296 9.9 17.1 16.8 17.3
FY2012 2,381 1,523 64.0 84 3.5 100 4.2 318 13.3 2,025 356 15.0 2 46 12 319 0 319 13.4 104 32.5 215 215 9.0 17.1 12.6 12.6
% chg (yoy) 25.2 13.7 213.4 26.3 22.2 24.0 32.3 (59.2) 42.2 133.5 35.3 32.4 30.4 33.3 37.6
28.5 28.5
3.5 3.5
33.3 37.6
Top-line growth surprises positively: For 1QFY2014, AMRJs top-line recorded a robust growth of 28.4% yoy (11.2% qoq) to `894cr despite the adverse macroeconomic environment. The top-line was driven by sustained growth in the fourwheeler replacement battery segment which clocked a double digit volume growth though the OEM demand remained muted. The two-wheeler battery segment too registered a significant growth as the company commenced supplies to Honda Motorcycle and Scooters India during the quarter. The growth in the industrial battery segment remained strong as well led by robust demand for telecom batteries in the replacement segment. According to the Management, the growth was restricted due to capacity constraints in the automotive as well as the industrial battery segments. The company is planning to incur a capital expenditure of `750cr towards capacity expansion as it is facing capacity constraints across its product segments. AMRJ expects to increase large valve-regulated lead-acid (VRLA), medium VRLA, two-wheeler and four-wheeler battery capacities over the next 12-24 months. The company is expanding its four-wheeler battery manufacturing capacity at the Chittoor plant from 5.6mn units to 8.25mn units. The two-wheeler battery capacity would be enhanced to 8.4mn from the current 4.8mn units. The company is also expanding its medium VRLA battery capacity from 1.8mn units to 3.6mn units and large VRLA capacity to 1,000mnAH.
28.4
525
562
613
673
696
719
761
804
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
EBITDA margin rebounds to 16.3%: On the operating front, the EBITDA margin expanded strongly by 235bp qoq to 16.3% driven by softening of lead prices and price hikes of ~4-5% undertaken in 4QFY2013. Further, a superior product-mix due to higher share of replacement as against OEMs also aided the margin performance. Sequentially, the raw-material expenditure as a percentage of sales declined 201bp leading to a gross margins expansion 33.2%. On a yoy basis though, margins contracted 89bp due to a sharp increase in other expenditure on account of higher advertisement and higher distribution expenditure. The company has increased product prices by 4-5% again in July 2013, leading to a 12-15% price hike over the last one year. While cost pressures in the form of higher distribution expenses, higher power and fuel costs and increasing marketing spends would continue going ahead, we believe the impact would be limited given that lead prices have softened over the last one month. Further price hikes over the last one year would also provide respite to the company.
70.3
66.9
66.4
66.1
66.9
65.7
66.1
68.8
1QFY14
66.8
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
894
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
1QFY14
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Jun-13
Bottom-line posts 64.6% qoq growth: Driven by a strong operating performance and lower depreciation expense, adjusted bottom-line surged 64.6% qoq (28.5% yoy) to `98cr. The depreciation expense declined 45.7% qoq to `15cr as the company had recorded an impairment charge of `8cr and an additional depreciation expense of `5cr in 4QFY2013.
39
52
66
58
76
79
81
59
98 1QFY14
20 0
2.0 0.0
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
Investment arguments
AMRJ is Indias second-largest manufacturer of lead batteries. US based Johnson Controls is a joint venture partner of AMRJ and holds a 26% equity stake in the company. The automotive and industrial battery segments accounted for ~52% and ~48% of the companys revenues in FY2013. We expect the automotive battery market to post a 12-15% CAGR in sales over FY201315E, led by strong growth in the replacement demand, a 5-8% CAGR in new vehicle sales and shrinking market share of unorganized players. Thus, during FY201315E, we expect AMRJs automotive battery segment to post an ~17% revenue CAGR. Also, with a strong focus on strengthening its distribution network, we expect AMRJ to increase its market share going ahead. AMRJ pioneered the use of maintenance-free batteries with a presence in the railway signaling, telecom, power and supply solutions segments. Going forward, we expect the power telecom and backup (home UPS) segment to drive demand for industrial batteries, leading to an ~15% revenue CAGR in AMRJs industrial battery segment over FY201315E.
Due to the strong operating performance over the last few quarters, AMRJ has narrowed the valuation gap to the market leader, Exide from 35-45% to ~10% currently (one year forward basis). We expect the company to sustain its strong operating performance and thereby its outperformance relative to Exide, aided by the sustained growth in the automotive and industrial battery volumes. The stock has surged ~8% post the strong 1QFY2014 results. At `277, AMRJ is trading at 13.2x FY2015E earnings. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `305 valuing the stock at 14.5x FY2015 earnings.
Feb-08
May-07
Dec-08
Sep-09
Jan-05
Jun-10
Aug-06
Jan-12
Aug-05
Mar-09
Dec-10
Nov-03
Aug-13
Feb-02
Sep-12
P/E (x) FY14E 14.6 12.1 14.6 25.1 16.7 15.3 18.2 8.7
^
EV/EBITDA (x) FY14E 8.9 4.8 7.1 15.0 9.0 8.7 7.2 3.3 FY15E 7.4 3.6 6.0 11.7 7.6 6.1 6.1 2.9 13.2 7.7 11.7 20.1 14.7 11.3 14.7 5.4
RoE (%) FY14E 27.1 9.5 15.4 16.6 18.3 13.4 29.4 4.8 FY15E 24.1 14.0 17.3 17.6 18.0 15.8 28.6 7.6
FY13-15E EPS CAGR (%) 10.2 (4.7) 58.8 23.3 21.1 3.4 24.9 5.6
FY15E
Motherson Sumi*
Company background
Amara Raja Batteries, a JV between Galla family and Johnson Controls, US, is India's second largest manufacturer in the organized valve-regulated lead-acid (VRLA) batteries market, finding applications in the automotive (~52% of total revenue) and industrial (~48% of total revenue) segments. AMRJ has a market share of ~28% in four-wheeler OEMs, ~22% in four-wheeler replacement and ~15% in two-wheeler replacement battery markets. The company also commands dominant market shares of ~45% and ~30% in the telecom and UPS battery segments respectively. AMRJ derives ~35% and ~40% of its industrial segment's revenue from the telecom and UPS battery segments respectively.
Aug-13
Apr-04
Oct-05
Apr-11
Jan-03
Jun-07
Apr-01
Oct-04
Apr-08
Jan-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Jul-06
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 0.0 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.1 70.5 (0.2) (0.5) 119.6 (0.3) (0.8) 376.3 0.1 0.1 33.9 (0.1) (0.2) 30.5 3.2 47 56 35 65 3.4 52 57 38 61 4.1 43 48 31 50 4.6 34 43 32 36 3.5 33 43 34 34 2.9 33 43 32 36 35.9 42.5 33.5 30.3 30.6 24.9 34.3 41.9 29.3 35.0 48.4 31.4 31.1 30.0 27.2 28.0 30.9 24.2 16.8 0.7 2.5 27.5 2.8 0.3 34.9 12.2 0.7 2.7 22.6 2.3 0.1 23.9 12.4 0.7 3.4 28.2 1.9 (0.2) 23.3 12.7 0.7 4.0 34.7 0.8 (0.7) 11.0 12.7 0.7 3.1 26.6 5.4 (0.1) 23.5 12.3 0.7 2.6 21.8 5.4 (0.0) 21.4 9.8 9.3 11.8 1.5 31.8 8.7 8.7 11.1 2.3 37.8 12.6 12.6 15.3 1.9 48.2 17.3 17.3 21.2 2.5 62.0 19.0 19.0 24.8 2.6 78.0 21.0 21.0 28.2 2.6 96.0 28.3 23.4 8.7 0.5 3.2 16.4 7.2 31.9 24.9 7.3 0.8 2.7 18.5 6.2 22.0 18.1 5.7 0.7 1.9 13.5 4.8 16.0 13.1 4.5 0.9 1.5 9.9 3.6 14.6 11.2 3.5 0.9 1.4 8.9 3.0 13.2 9.8 2.9 0.9 1.2 7.5 2.5 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Returns):
11