CHASING THE MDGs THE INDIAN SCENARIO

1. Introduction 1.1 The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) set up by the United Nations were adopted by 189 countries in the UN Millennium Summit held in September, 2000. Broadly, the objectives of the goals are to adopt new measures in the fight against poverty, hunger, illiteracy, gender inequality, diseases and environmental degradation. The challenges for the country in achieving the goals have been translated into time bound targets. The goals and the targets are global as well as country specific. There are in all 8 MDGs as under:(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) (vii) (viii) Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Achieve universal primary education Promote gender inequality and empower women To reduce child mortality Improve maternal health Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Ensure environmental sustainability Develop a global partnership for development

1.2 Each of the goals has one or more targets to be achieved by the end of 2015. There are in all 18 such targets. In the run up, to meet the targets, the progress of the countries are to be measured quantitatively with the help of a number of quantitative indicators. There are 48 such indicators listed by the UN and standard International definitions for these indicators have also been enunciated. 1.3 There is no compulsion for any country to work towards meeting the MDG targets. However, the MDGs have become a framework for judging the progress of different nations. Failure to achieve MDG targets will reflect poorly on a nations capability and will also bring in international pressure. India has a very crucial position in the global scenario of MDG framework. For instance, the first target of the first MDG i.e. halving the global poverty by 2015, cannot be achieved unless the worlds most populous countries, India and China, halve the number of people living below the poverty line by that year.

2. Country Situation 2.1 Indias steady progress over the last one decade towards human development goals is reflected in the improvement of the countrys HDI from 0.41 in 1975 to 0.57 in 1999. India also figured itself among the 10 fastest growing economies in the world with an average growth rate of the GDP of 5.8% during the first decade of reforms (1992-2001). This favourable situation led India to take certain important policy initiatives as under:(a) India committed itself in fulfilling the mandates of various international conventions/conferences;

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(d) (e) (f) (g) (h)

A national policy plan and the action plan for the empowerment of the women are adopted; The 73rd and 74th Constitutional Amendments passed in 1992 became operative in strengthening political participation of women and brought more than a million women into public life; The 83rd Constitutional Amendment Bill recognising the right to Primary Education as a Fundamental Right got passed; The legislation on reservation of seats for women in Parliament is in the process; The National Employment Guarantee Act has been passed; The Right to Information Act has come into effect; and The directions for the new country programme emerged from rigorous assessment of the outcomes of on-going programmes and consultation with diverse actors and stakeholders.

2.2 The Government of India has launched various new countrywide programmes for extending the benefits of the aforesaid policy initiatives and demonstrated its commitment by significant enhancement of allocations for these programmes in the recent budgets. The Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (Education for all), the National Rural Health Mission, the Expanded Midday Meal Scheme and the Integrated Child Development Mission, Sampoorna Grameen Rozgar Yojana are the main programmes devoted to achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). 2.3 As a consequence of the favourable policy and institutional environment in the country, India became well placed on track with regard to achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Yet the challenges for Human Development remain formidable. The point was amply clear in what the Finance Minister spoke in his Budget Speech of 2004 as below: The countries of the world, India included, have set for themselves the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Our date with destiny is not at the end of the millennium, but in the year 2015. Will we achieve those goals? In the 11 years that remain, it is in our hand to shape our destiny. Progress is not always on a linear path, nor is it inevitable. 2.4 In the 10th Five Year Plan (2002-2007), the Planning Commission has outlined Indias human development goals and targets for the next five to ten years. Most of these are related to and are more ambitious than the MDGs. A brief list of these targets for the 10th Plan and beyond are as follows: Reduction of poverty ratio by 5percentage points by 2007 and 15 percentage points by 2012. All children in school by 2003; all children to complete five years of schooling by 2007. Reduction in gender gaps in literacy and wage rates by at least 50% by 2007. Increase in literacy rate to 75% within the 10th Plan period.

 Reduction of infant mortality rate to 45 per thousand live births by 2007 and to 28 by 2012. Reduction of maternal mortality rate to 2 per thousand live births by 2007 and to 1 by 2012. Reduction in the decadal rate of population growth between 2001 and 2011 to 16.2%. Providing gainful and high quality employment at least to the addition to the labour force over the 10th Plan period. All villages to have sustained access to potable drinking water within the 10th Plan Period. Increase in forest and tree cover to 25% by 2007 and 33% by 2012; Specific HIV/AIDS targets within the 10th Plan Period. Specific malaria targets within the 10th Plan Period.

3. Variants of Indicators 3.1 Of the 48 indicators for the 8 Goals, 35 were found relevant to India. Some of the variants of the measures being followed by India in assessment and/or, the indicators with conceptual disparity with international definitions have been discussed in the following sections. 1. The poverty rate according to the Government of India definition is at variance with that according to international definition. India unlike most countries has different poverty lines at sub-national level. The poverty ratios are estimated for different states of the country and have state specific poverty lines for rural and urban areas. All-India implicit poverty line for the urban areas is nearly 40% higher than that for rural areas. The state with the highest prices has a poverty line that is 57% higher than that for the state with lowest prices. These variations are mainly on account of price differentials across states and for rural and urban areas. Applying a uniform poverty line for the country as a whole would underestimate poverty level in urban areas and overestimate in rural areas. Uniform international poverty line such as US$ 1 (PPP) per day can distort the picture further. The poverty line indicator in the MDG for Prevalence of underweight children is the percentage of children under five years of age whose weight for age is less than minus two standard deviations from the median for the international reference population aged 0-59 months. In Indian context, data on this indicator are not available. The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) collected data on the under-weight children below 3 years of age in 1998-99. In 1992-93 surveys, children between 0-47 months of age were considered and as such results of the two surveys are not comparable.

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In estimating the proportion of people who suffer from hunger (Target 2: MDG 1), the recommended indicator is proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption. In India, data are available for the first time from the District Level Rapid Household Survey (DLHS) 2002-05, by which district level estimates for hidden hunger or micronutrient deficiencies and malnutrition are available. Repeat surveys of this nature would be required to track direction of changes. However, other measures such as incidence of malnourishment (e.g. anaemia) among women and children as per NFHS 1998-99 are also being considered indicative in absence of well-defined indicator for hunger. Using the norm of 2425K Cal per CU for rural and 2100 K Cal per CU for urban, proportion of households with sufficient food for members of the household is also estimated state-wise. Net Enrolment Ratio (NER) in primary education is one prescribed indicator (Target 3: MDG 2) defined as the ratio of the number of children of official school age who are enrolled in primary school to the total population of children of official school age. In India NER is not calculated. Instead, Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) which is defined as the number of pupils enrolled in a given level of education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the population in the normative age group for the same level of education, is calculated for Class I-V and age 6-11 years from the data collected by Ministry of HRD through an annual return from schools and educational institutions. The limitation of this indicator is that, in some cases, the figure is more than 100% due to enrolment of children beyond the age group 6-11 years. Thus, it may not be quite indicative of the situation. Another prescribed indicator for Target 3: MDG2 is Proportion of pupils starting Grade 1 who reach Grade 5. It is also known as survival rate to Grade 5, and is defined as the percentage of a cohort of pupils enrolled in Grade 1 of the primary level of education in a given school-year who are expected to reach Grade 5. This indicator is measured in India alongside dropout rate as well so that changes could be better explained. The third indicator for Target 3: MDG2 is literacy rate of 15-24 yearolds, or youth literacy rate that is defined as the percentage of the population 15-24 years old who can both read and write with understanding a short simple statement on everyday life. In India, literacy rate of the youth age group is not calculated. Instead, literacy rate for age group 7 years and above has been used from Census data. However, adult literacy rate for 15 years and above based on Census data are also available gender disaggregated and state-wise.

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One prescribed indicator for Target 4: MDG3 is Ratio of literate women to men 15-24 years old (literacy gender parity index) which is the ratio of the female literacy rate to male literacy rate for the age-group 15-24 years. The ratio of literate women to literate men is available for the population in the age group of 7 years plus instead of 15-24 years and the source is Census data and calculated state-wise and at national level. Maternal Morality Rate (MMR), one of the indicators for maternal health (Target 6: Goal 5) is the number of maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. Its estimate in India at state level is not very robust as system of registering deaths for maternity causes is prone to biases. Standard survey method for the estimate is yet to be in place. Two of the indicators prescribed for combating spread of HIV/AIDS (Target 7: MDG 6) are (i) HIV prevalence among pregnant women aged 15-24 years and (ii) condom use percentage at high-risk age. Data on these are collected through annual round of HIV sentinel surveillance at identified sentinel sites (clinics) conducted during 12 weeks from 1st August to 31st October every year. The estimates are too specific to high-risk zone, both at state-level and national level. A second survey known as Behavioural Sentinel Surveillance Survey (BSS) is however, conducted once in three years to monitor trends in risk behaviours among general population and high-risk groups. The findings of the two for highrisk groups differ as the second survey is conducted by an independent organisation. One composite indicator for reversing incidence of malaria and other diseases (Target 8: MDG6) is comprised of prevalence of malaria i.e. the number of cases of malaria per 1,00,000 people and deaths rate associated with malaria i.e. the number of deaths caused by malaria per 1,00,000 population. In India data on annual parasite incidence (annual number of malaria positive cases per thousand population) and deaths due to malaria per 1,00,000 population are collected from 22,975 PHCs; 2,935 CHCs and 13,758 malaria clinics. However, limitation of these rates is that they grossly underestimate the incidence in tribal, hilly, difficult and inaccessible areas, which cover 20% of population but 80% of malaria cases. Other composite indicators for Target 8: MDG 6 include Prevalence and death rates associated with Tuberculosis and Proportion of Tuberculosis cases detected and cured under directly observed treatment short course (DOTS). In India these rates are calculated on the basis of nation wide Annual Risk of TB Infection (ARTI) survey conducted by National Tuberculosis Institute and Tuberculosis Research Centre. However, death rate due to TB as

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per notified cases is grossly underestimate and there is no representative data available to estimate it correctly at present. 14. One of the recommended indicator for reversing the loss of environmental resources (Target 9: MDG7) is Energy use (Kg oil equivalent) per $1 GDP (PPP), which is defined as the commercial energy use measured in units of oil equivalent per $1 of GDP converted from national currencies using PPP conversion factors. In the Indian context, commercial energy use in Kg oil equivalent per unit of GDP includes consumption figures for coal and lignite, crude petroleum, natural gas (including feed stock) and electricity (hydro and nuclear). As consumption data of coal and lignite are not collected and compiled by any single agency, off-take of indigenous coal and lignite and net import are taken as consumption with the assumption that stock changes at both producers and consumers end remain the same. Again gradewise distribution and dispatches data is not available and nor that of the off-take. Therefore, average GCV in kilo cal per kg for dispatch is taken as the average GCV of colliery consumption. Till now GCV concept has not been adopted for Indian coal and lignite like other coal producing countries or the world. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita is another indicator for environmental sustainability (Target 9: MDG 7), which is defined as the total amount of carbon dioxide emitted by a country as a consequence of human (production and consumption) activities, divided by the population of the country. In the global CO2 emission estimate of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre of OAK Ridge National Laboratory, USA, the calculated country estimates of emissions include emission from consumption of solid, liquid and gas fuels, cement production and gas flaring. However, Indias national reporting to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which follows the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change guidelines, is based on national emission inventories and covers all sources of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions as well as carbon sinks (such as forests). Proportion of Population using solid fuels which is the proportion of the population that relies on biomass (wood, charcoal, crop residues and dung) and coal as the primary source of domestic energy for cooking and hearing, is another indicator for environmental sustainability (Target 9: MDG 7). In the Indian context, per thousand distributions of households reporting use of solid fuels for cooking has been used. The data is captured through household consumer expenditure surveys of NSSO. Here one of the energy sources only is recorded. In case of more than one type of energy use, the type most commonly used is recorded. Towards making available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communication (Target 18: MDG 8), the

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indicators prescribed are (i) Telephone lines and cellular subscribers per 100 population and (ii) Personal Computers in use per 100 population/internet users per 100 population. In India in addition to normal phones, community access has been provided through Public Call Offices (PCOs), Village Public Telephones (VPTs) and Rural Community Phones (RCPs). Hence there is no estimate as per UN prescription. Cellular mobile services are provided by private operators in a big way. There are Unified Access Service Licences, having large share of private operators. As a result the total number of telephones of all types together is considered to calculate the overall tele-density. 4. Progress to MDGs 4.1 Against this background, the First Country Report on MDGs brought out by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation in December 2005 captured the Indian scenario in the 4.2 MDG framework for each of the eight goals as summarized below:(MDG.1) Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger: The proportion of people below the poverty line is to be reduced from nearly 37.5% in 1990 to about 18.75% by 2015. The poverty head count ratio is 26.1% in 1999-2000 with poverty gap ratio of 5.2% and share of poorest quintile in national consumption being 10.1% for rural sector and 7.9% for urban sector and prevalence of under weight children of the order of 47%. (MDG.2) Achieve universal primary education: The primary school enrolment rate is to be raised to 100% and the dropouts assessed as 41.96% in 1991-92 is to be totally wiped out by 2015. The dropout rate in primary education has been assessed as 34.9% in 2002-2003. The gross enrolment ratio in primary education has registered an increase of nearly 20 percentage points in ten years from 1992-93 to 2002-03 for girls (93%) and that for boys remains stationery near 100%. The literacy rate (7 years and above) has increased from 52.2 % in 1991 to 64.84% in 2001. (MDG.3) Promote gender equality and empower women: Towards achieving parity in female-male ratio in education, the proportion in primary education of 71:100 in 1990-91 improved to 78:100 in 2000-01. The increase in secondary education during the same period was from 49:100 to 63:100. (MDG.4) Reduce child mortality: The under five mortality rate (U5MR) is to be reduced from 125 deaths per thousand live births in 1988-92 to 41 in 2015. The U5MR has

decreased to 98 per thousand live births during 19982002. The infant morality rate (IMR) has also come down from 80 per thousand live births in 1990 to 60 per thousand in 2003. (MDG.5) Improve maternal health: The maternal mortality rate (MMR) is to be reduced from 437 deaths per 100,000 live births in 1991 to 109 by 2015. The value of MMR in 1998 has been assessed as 407. Attendance of skilled health personnel at the time of births has increased from 25.5% in 1992-93 to 39.8% in 2002-03. (MDG.6) Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases: India has a low prevalence of HIV among pregnant women as compared to other developing countries, yet the prevalence rate has increased from 0.74 per thousand pregnant women in 2002 to 0.86 in 2003. The prevalence and death rates associated with malaria are consistently coming down. The death rate associated with TB has come down from 56 deaths per 100,000 population in 1990 to 34 in 2003. (MDG.7) Ensure environmental sustainability: The total forest cover is 20.64% as per 2003 assessment and is tending to increase. 19% of the total land area is under reserved and protected forests to maintain the biological diversity. The energy use has declined consistently from about 36 kg oil equivalent in 1991-92 to about 33 kg oil equivalent in 2003-04 to reduce GDP worth Rs. 1000. (MDG.8) Develop a global partnership for development: The overall tele-density has increased from 0.67% in 1991 to 10.8% in November, 2005. Use of Personal Computers (PCs) has increased from 5.4 million PCs in 2001 to 14.5 million in 2005. There are 5.6 million Internet subscribers as on June, 2005. 5. Sub-national Targets 5.1 The Indian scenario of development trends in the MDG framework is vastly different from other developing countries, mainly due to the large size of its area and population. The attainment of goals for India at the national level is deeply associated with sub-national performance. It is to be appreciated that the rate of change for the states may not be proportional or equivalent to that being aimed at for the country as a whole? To illustrate this, we may consider the case of Under Five Mortality Rate (U5MR), which as per MDG-4 has to be reduced from 125 deaths per thousand live births in 1988-92 to 41 by 2015, i.e. a reduction by two-thirds has been envisaged for the nation as a whole. The question is: is it logical to apply the same reduction rate of twothirds uniformly to all States? Keralas U5MR in 1988-92 was about 26.1 per thousand live births. By the 2/3rd rule, Keralas 2015 U5MR target should be

about 8 per thousand live births. On the other hand, UP having U5MR of 182 per thousand live births will have to aim at U5MR of 60-65 by 2015, which is still higher than the national target. It is more logical to bring down the U5MR of UP by more than 2/3rd rather than reducing that of Kerala to 8. The impact of Kerala on the overall change for the country as a whole is hardly perceptible, however, big it may be. The U5MR in Kerala is plateauing and a further dip may need massive intervention. Plan intervention of the same magnitude in bigger States like UP may cause bigger effect at the State level as well as national level. Same is the case with Infant Mortality Rate (IMR). That amounts to saying that there is a need to set targets for 2015 indicator values for each of the States and the distance of those targets from the base values of the indicators should be taken into consideration in deciding on the magnitude of intervention required at state-level.