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Step 2. Assessing Organizational goal, strategy and current HR HR plan based on organizational goals and strategy. HRP should integrate with the goals and strategy of the firm Organization plan guide formulates HRP. HRP is an integral part of the corporate plan. Current HR position of the firm should be properly analyzed to make sound HRP. Current HR can be analyzed by analyzing of Human resource Inventory: It describes competencies currently available in the organization. Human resource information system: HRIS process the HR information and furnish the useful information. It is computerized database system. Job Analysis: It provides information about job currently being done. The nature of job and qualifications needed for doing job are identified by job analysis. These all analysis assists to know the present position and competencies of manpower
Step 3. Demand forecasting Forecasting HR demand in terms of quantity and quality is and important step of HRP. Factors that affect HR demand forecast are:
External environmental forces: Economic, legal, Social, cultural, political, technological etc Organization objectives, Business plan, Succession plan, Work force factors: Work load norm, separation, turnover, temporary help, promotion and transfer plan. Step 4. Supply forecasting Supply forecasting predicts the future supply of HR. There are different techniques of supply forecasting: Replacement chart, succession planning management Judgment, Statistical technique etc
Step 5.Matching the demand and supply of HR Demand and supply forecast of HR are matched to determine. Additional HR will be needed to meet the shortages .Retrenchment may be needed to tackle Surpluses.
Step 6.Preparation of Action Plan Actions plans should be prepared to deal with shortage and surpluses of HR. following any one plan or some of them should be developed for satisfying the current and future HR need.
Figure 23
2002 Southwestern College Publishing. All rights reserved. 28
Recruitment plan: no, types, timing Development plan: No, skills, area, methods, duration for training and development. Retention plan: Career development, compensation, levels, incentives Redeployment plan: transfer and retraining Redundancy (jobless) plan: no and types of employees laid off Promotion plan: Ratio and basis of promotion Succession plan: Internal supply relating to future Managers need Motivational plan: Financial and non financial motivation
Step 7. ControlandEvaluation: Monitor & evaluate the HR objectives with achievements .Monitor through HR indicators. Timely feedback
Linking
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Role of HRIS in HRP Human Resource Inventory Role (Includes information about the workers & the skills they currently possess) Human Resource Forecast Role (Helps in forecasting future HR demand & supply) Human Resource Development Role (Identifying persons for training, development, promotion etc.) Job Analysis Role (Systematic investigation of a jobs content)
Methods of HR Demand and Supply Estimation Determining the Demand for Labor:
Forecasting the future need to manpower; developing a projection of future HR needs Year by year analysis for every significant job level & type Human resource inventory: estimates future HRM needs for every significant job level & type
Forecasts must be made of the need for specific knowledge, skills & abilities to meet the strategic direction of the organization
1. Managerial Judgment Method a) The Delphi Technique b) Nominal Grouping Technique analysis c) Managerial estimate Technique
2.Statistical Method a) Simple linear regression b) Multiple linear regression c) Time series analysis
1. Managerial Judgment Method a) Delphi Technique Developed by Rand Corporation in the 1940s, Expert estimate the HR demand. Experts work independently without any face to face discussion. An intermediary accumulates their opinion, Forecast is done through expert consensus b) Nominal Group Technique (NGT) Independent ideas are written by experts followed by group brainstorming session, Equal opportunity to provide opinions, Independently vote the ideas, Solution with the most individual votes win Voting or ranking is used to reach the consensus to avoid conflict.
c )Managerial Estimate Technique Used by top managers, can be top-down or bottom-up communication approach 2. Statistical Technique a) Simple Linear regression analysis: Estimation of future HR is obtained by establishing its relations with the past production, sales and business level. The past level of sales and employment is used to predict future sales and HR demand b) Multiple Linear Regression analysis: Extension of simple regression method More than two variables are used eg. Sales, productivity, technical equipment are considered to determined HR need. c) Time Series analysis: Past staffing levels are examined with seasonal movements. Eg. Sales levels are related to employment needs. variation and other
Forecasting HR Supply
Once the number of HR required for future is estimated the next step is to ensure the supply of this HR at right time at right job at right numbers. There are two methods of supply forecasting of HR. 1. Managerial Judgment Methods: A) Skills Inventory & Management Inventory To note what kinds of skills, abilities, experiences, training the employees currently have B) Replacement Planning Names of potential candidates with their present performance level & potentiality for future promotion C) Succession Planning (Management Succession) Develops a pool of qualified managers with a view to management succession. The following figures shows about succession planning.
2. Statistical Technique:
A) Markov Analysis
It was used first by US Air Force; early 60s.An analysis of staffing levels from one period to another .It shows the probability of an employees moving from one position to another or leaving the organization. It is based on historical analysis of the movement of personnel estimates human resource supplies. It includes the following steps.
1. Develop effective HR forecasting system. 2. Estimate overall HR need to satisfy business objectives 3. Estimating HR supplies based on Historical analysis of the movement of HR by transfer, promotion, quits 4. Forecasting the total no of HR needed to satisfy the requirement of the firm.
B) Renewal analysis.
It uses the two bases to estimate the future supply of HR. The vacancies created by the organizations growth and expansion, internal movement of HR and personnel losses. The results of decision to fulfill the vacancies. Renewal analysis determines the no of HR to be supplied from internal and external sources.