Outlook and Indicators

www.pmcg-i.com External Trade

Issue #8

Economic

M20.08.2013
Share of Export and Import in External Trade Turnover

80% 70%
Share

78%

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

In the second quarter of 2013, the dynamics of external trade turnover was 2568.2 mln.USD, which is lower (-1.2%) than the corresponding indicator of previous year, but it exceeds the corresponding indicator of the first quarter 2013 (19.7%). In the second quarter of 2013, the share of export in external trade turnover increased (26%) compared to the corresponding figure in 2012 (23%),but the share of import in total trade is reduced (74%) compared to the corresponding figure in 2013, but is similar to the corresponding indicator of the first quarter 2013.

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

77%

77%

74%

74%

24%
2011 I

26%
II

22%
III

24%
IV

24%
2012 I

23%
II

23%
III

23%
IV

26%
2013 I

26%
II

Export

Import

External Trade Turnover

External Trade Balance

2500 0 -200 2000 -400

In the second quarter of 2013, the dynamics of export as well as import is similar to the dynamics of corresponding indicators in the previous years. In the second quarter of 2013, the volume of export increased (11.5%), but the volume of import reduced (-5%), in comparison with the corresponding indicators of the second quarter of 2012. Total export increased due to increase of export of: mineral waters (51.9%), Copper ores and concentrates (91.7%) and natural wines of grape (29.8%). Similar to the first quarter of 2013, Georgia recorded negative trade balance in the second quarter of 2013 (-1226.9 mln.USD), which was 48% of external trade turnover. In this period the deficit of external trade balance reduced (12%) compared to the second quarter of 2012, but increased (21%) in comparison with the same indicator of the first quarter 2013.

mln.USD

1500

-800 1000 -1000 -1200 -1400 0 -1600

500

2011 I

II

III

IV

2012 I

II

III Export

IV

2013 I Import

II

External Trade Balance

mln.USD

-600

Export and Import Monthly Dinamics,20102013

Import Export 1,000 900 800 700

In June 2013, the volume of import reduced compared to the corresponding indicator of June 2012 (-4.7%), as well as in comparison with the indicator of May 2013 (-9.3%). In June 2013, the volume of export increased in comparison with the indicators of June 2012 (30.9%), as well as in comparison with the indicator of May 2013 (8.6%). The volume of export increased due to increase of export of: Copper ores and concentrates (940%), Semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel (712%) and Ferro-alloys (108%). In the period of 2010-2013 export as well as import volumes were characterised by monthly fluctuations.The amplitude of those fluctuations is higher in case of import compared to the case of export.

500 400 300 200 100

2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

mln.USD

600

External Trade Turnover.mln.USD

In the second quarter of 2013, the dynamics of external trade turnover is similar to the dynamics of the same indicator in previous years.

100% 90%

3000

76%

74%

76%

76%

77%

Outlook and Indicators

www.pmcg-i.com External Trade
Share of the Top Trading Partners in Total Exports I-II quarters,2013
Share of Major Commodity Positions by Export I-II quarter,2013

Economic

Issue # 8

M20.08.2013

Other countries 42%

Azerbaijan 27%

Motor Cars 26%

Armenia 11% USA 7%

Other Products 52%

Ferro-alloys 10%

Ukraine 6%

Turkey 7%

Fertilizers 4% Mineral Waters 4% Copper ores 4%

In the first two quarters of 2013, top five trading partner countries by export were: Azerbaijan (27%), Armenia (11%), United States (7%), Turkey (7%), Ukraine (6%) and five major exported commodities were: motor cars (26%), ferro-alloys (10%), fertilizers (4%), copper ores (4%), mineral waters (4%). Based on the fact that cars were not local production and were just re-exported through Georgia, Ferro-Alloys can be considered to be the major exported commodity in the first two quarters of 2013. In this period, the top three trading partners by turnover were: Turkey, Azerbaijan and Ukraine.The major commodities exported in Turkey were: knitted T-shirts,semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel, flours, meals and pellents unfit for human consumption.The major commodities exported in Azerbaijan were: motor cars (re-export), live bovine animals, cement, fittings. The major commodities exported in Ukraine were: mineral waters, ethyl alcohol and alcoholic beverages, natural wines of grape and Ferro-Alloys.

Share of the Top Trading Partners in Total Imports I-II quarter,2013

Share of Major Commodity Positions by Imports I-II quarter,2013

Turkey 17%

Petroleum 11% Motor Cars 10%

China 8% Other countries 52% Azerbaijan 8% Ukraine 8%

Other Products 69%

Gases 4% Medicaments 4% Telephones 2%

Russia 7%

In the first two quarters of 2013, the top five trading partner countries by import were: Turkey (17%), China (8%), Azerbaijan (8%), Ukraine (8%), Russia (7%) and five major imported commodities were: petroleum (11%), motor cars (10%), gases (4%), medicaments (4%), telephones (2%).

Basic Economic Indicators

Nominal GDP in current prices (mln USD)
Per capita GDP (USD) GDP real growth, percent Consumer Price Index Foreign Direct Investment (USD) Unemployment Rate External Public Debt (mln USD) Poverty Level

2011
14 438 3 230.7 7.20% 8,5% 1 117 15.10% 4200.5

2012
15829.7* 3519.6* 6.1%* -0.9%* 911.6 15% 4357.1

I12*
3388.3 753.4
6.70%

II12*
3918.3 871.2
8.20%

III12*
4156.1 924.1
7.50%

IV12*
4367.6

I 13*
3487.6

Contact Information

971.1
2.80% 233.7

777.8
2.40% 226.2

PMC Research

Tamar Jugheli
E-mail: pmcresearchcenter@pmcg.ge
E-mail: t.jugheli@pmcg.ge T: (+995) 2 921171 www.pmcg-i.com

261.2
-

217.7
-

199
-

9.20%

9.7%*

Source:

National Statistics Office of Georgia, Ministry of Finance of Georgia, National Bank of Georgia

*projected

-2-