Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
ECONOMIC DIGEST
Vol.3 No.1 A joint publication of the Connecticut Department of Labor & the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development
Forecast
Thousands
of Connecticut’s
1550
■ November's Consumer economy was
Price Index rose by 1.8 outlined in some 1500
percent from a year ago. detail. Since that
(p.8) time, the University 1450
of Connecticut’s 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
coincident index of Source: New England Economic Indicators & NEEP
economic activity, a
barometer of cur-
● IN THIS ISSUE ● rent employment activity, has potential for growth in demand
exhibited healthy growth; and the for consumer goods and services
Housing Update ............................ 3 leading index, a barometer of measured in such statistics as
future employment activity, retail sales. Moreover, the ac-
Leading & Coincident Indicators 5
maintained a modest upward companying multiplier effects in
Economic Indicators ................. 6-8 trend (see page 5). other sectors of the State’s
Comparative Regional Data ......... 9 The optimism for 1998 is economy translate into future
Economic Indicator Trends ... 10-13 based in part on continued expansion for capital plant and
expansion of employment and the equipment. Such investment
Nonfarm Empl. Estimates ..... 14-19
drop in the unemployment rate. spending is likely to see a boost
Labor Force Estimates ............... 20 Through October 1997, the state from strong consumer demand.
Hours and Earnings ................... 21 had added nearly 30,000 jobs The performance of retail
Housing Permit Activity ........ 21-22 over the year and the unemploy- sales — at least through midyear
ment rate was down 1.1 percent- 1997 — was reassuringly strong.
Technical Notes .......................... 23
age points from its October 1996 The 7.0 percent growth on a
At a Glance ................................. 24 level, and was identical to the year-to-date basis gave a boost to
HOUSING UPDATE
November Housing Permits Down 17.9%
November compared to the
C ommissioner James F.
Abromaitis of the Connecticut
permitted in October 1997. The
year-to-date number of permits is same month a year ago.
Department of Economic and up 18.3 percent, from 7,125 Middlesex County followed with
Community Development an- through November 1996, to 8,432 a 7.5 percent increase.
nounced that Connecticut through November 1997. Fairfield County docu-
communities authorized 561 “The year-over-year increase mented the largest number of
new housing units in November in permits indicates that the new, authorized units in
1997, a 17.9 percent decrease state’s long-term economic November with 135. Hartford
compared to November of 1996 improvement is continuing,” County followed with 130 units
when 683 were authorized. Commissioner Abromaitis said. and New Haven County had 93
The Department further Reports from municipal units. Newtown led all Con-
indicated that the 561 units officials throughout the state necticut communities with 20
permitted in November 1997 indicate that Windham County units, followed by South
represent a decrease of 19.8 with 26.3 percent showed the Windsor with 16, and Fairfield
percent from the 852 units greatest percentage increase in with 14. ■
The annual housing permit report for 1996 is available from the Department of Economic and Community Devel-
opment. To obtain a copy, please call (860)270-8161 or fax requests to (860)270-8174.
●
4
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST January 1998
LEADING AND COINCIDENT INDICATORS
LEADING INDEX COINCIDENT INDEX
105 120
Peak
02/89
100
100
95
80 Peak
03/80 Trough
90 06/92
60 Peak Trough
Peak 05/74 01/83
85 12/69
40
80
Trough
Trough
09/75
10/71
75 20
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
The distance from peak to trough, indicated by the shaded areas, measures the duration of an employment cycle recession. The vertical scale in
both charts is an index with 1987=100.
Source: Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis, University of Connecticut. Developed by Pami Dua [(203) 461-6644,
Stamford Campus (on leave)] and Stephen M. Miller [(860) 486-3853, Storrs Campus]. Kathryn E. Parr [(860) 486-0485, Storrs
Campus] provided research support.
Note: The personal income estimates for 1969:Q1 to 1989:Q4 have been revised by BEA in the second half of 1997.
The series is now consistent from 1969:Q1 to 1997:Q2 (The most current quarter available)
1,600
May 1,556.8 1,581.0 1,607.0
1,550 Jun 1,556.8 1,584.2 1,613.2
1,500 Jul 1,557.7 1,588.0 1,620.5
Aug 1,561.9 1,591.9 1,620.5
1,450 Sep 1,563.1 1,590.9 1,622.7
1,400 Oct 1,560.8 1,592.5 1,622.3
Nov 1,565.4 1,595.3 1,629.1
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Dec 1,567.2 1,596.5
1,750
May 1,709.3 1,717.9 1,741.7
1,700 Jun 1,709.0 1,719.7 1,749.2
1,650 Jul 1,709.1 1,721.6 1,746.6
Aug 1,710.3 1,721.9 1,741.5
1,600 Sep 1,711.1 1,721.5 1,742.9
1,550 Oct 1,709.3 1,724.1 1,738.7
Nov 1,712.4 1,723.3
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Dec 1,714.8 1,722.0
AVERAGE WEEKLY INITIAL CLAIMS* (Seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 4,534 4,651 3,890
9,000
Feb 4,756 4,517 3,795
8,000 Mar 4,790 4,082 3,880
7,000 Apr 4,797 4,274 4,335
6,000 May 4,940 4,334 3,724
Jun 5,579 4,365 4,277
5,000
Jul 5,029 4,349 3,622
4,000 Aug 4,800 4,281 3,858
3,000 Sep 4,803 4,199 3,627
2,000 Oct 4,872 4,166 3,470
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Nov 4,986 3,907 3,698
Dec 4,200 4,501
* The methodology for this series has been revised; See Technical Notes, p.23.
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10
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST January 1998
ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS
REAL AVG MANUFACTURING HOURLY EARNINGS (Not seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan $9.28 $9.22 $9.09
9.6
Feb 9.20 9.10 9.06
9.4 Mar 9.17 9.12 9.09
1982-84 Dollars
AVG MANUFACTURING WEEKLY HOURS (Not seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 42.6 39.1 42.7
45
Feb 42.8 42.6 42.1
44 Mar 43.3 43.0 42.4
43 Apr 41.0 42.0 42.5
42 May 42.9 42.7 42.4
Jun 42.8 43.0 42.5
41
Jul 41.8 42.2 42.1
40 Aug 42.5 42.6 42.2
39 Sep 43.2 43.1 43.0
38 Oct 43.5 42.9 42.8
Nov 43.2 43.2 43.3
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Dec 43.5 43.4
HARTFORD HELP WANTED INDEX (Seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 32 35 35
120
Feb 35 33 36
100 Mar 36 34 34
Apr 33 34 36
1987=100
80
May 34 35 36
60 Jun 33 36 38
40 Jul 31 34 35
Aug 32 32 34
20 Sep 39 35 36
0 Oct 30 35 35
Nov 32 36 37
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Dec 40 35
DOL NEWLY REGISTERED EMPLOYERS (12-month moving average) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 826 810 833
1,100 Feb 844 794 840
1,000 Mar 833 812 856
Apr 813 813 849
900
May 827 811 856
800 Jun 824 838 848
Jul 819 833 856
700
Aug 821 833 862
600 Sep 822 838 854
500 Oct 823 825 859
Nov 827 825 859
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Dec 828 828
CONSTRUCTION & MINING EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 52.9 49.9 52.7
90
Feb 52.0 51.0 53.4
80 Mar 52.0 51.8 53.9
Apr 51.9 52.3 54.5
Thousands
TRANSPORT. & PUBLIC UTIL. EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 70.8 72.3 73.4
80
Feb 71.0 72.9 73.7
75 Mar 71.0 73.2 74.0
Apr 72.1 73.4 74.7
Thousands
70
May 71.6 73.4 75.5
65 Jun 71.4 73.8 76.0
60 Jul 71.5 73.1 76.1
Aug 71.2 73.0 73.4
55 Sep 71.5 73.0 75.1
50 Oct 71.3 73.2 75.1
Nov 70.9 73.5 75.1
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Dec 71.2 73.0
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12
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST January 1998
ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS
SALES TAX Quarter FY 96 FY 97 FY 98
First 3.2 6.5 9.5
Year-over-year % changes
-4
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
-10
-20
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Note: These economic growth rates were derived by the Office of Fiscal Analysis and were made by comparing tax collections
in each quarter with the same quarter in the previous year and were adjusted for legislative changes
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
*Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Includes Indian tribal government employment.
●
14
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST January 1998
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES
BRIDGEPORT LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted
NOV NOV CHANGE OCT
1997 1996 NO. % 1997
For further information on the Danbury Labor Market Area contact Arthur Famiglietti at (860) 566-3472.
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
*Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes.
For further information on the Danielson Labor Market Area contact Noreen Passardi at (860) 566-3470.
For further information on the Hartford Labor Market Area contact Arthur Famiglietti at (860) 566-3472.
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
*Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes.
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16
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST January 1998
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES
LOWER RIVER LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted
NOV NOV CHANGE OCT
1997 1996 NO. % 1997
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
*Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes.
●
18
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST January 1998
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES
TORRINGTON LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted
NOV NOV CHANGE OCT
1997 1996 NO. % 1997
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
*Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes.
BRIDGEPORT LMA Civilian Labor Force 218,700 218,900 -200 -0.1 219,900
Employed 207,500 205,500 2,000 1.0 208,800
Unemployed 11,200 13,400 -2,200 -16.4 11,100
Unemployment Rate 5.1 6.1 -1.0 --- 5.0
DANBURY LMA Civilian Labor Force 106,700 107,700 -1,000 -0.9 107,100
Employed 103,800 103,900 -100 -0.1 104,200
Unemployed 2,900 3,800 -900 -23.7 2,900
Unemployment Rate 2.7 3.6 -0.9 --- 2.7
HARTFORD LMA Civilian Labor Force 591,000 588,900 2,100 0.4 595,900
Employed 564,900 556,100 8,800 1.6 570,200
Unemployed 26,100 32,700 -6,600 -20.2 25,700
Unemployment Rate 4.4 5.6 -1.2 --- 4.3
LOWER RIVER LMA Civilian Labor Force 12,200 12,000 200 1.7 12,600
Employed 11,800 11,400 400 3.5 12,100
Unemployed 400 500 -100 -20.0 400
Unemployment Rate 3.3 4.4 -1.1 --- 3.3
NEW HAVEN LMA Civilian Labor Force 272,600 273,500 -900 -0.3 275,000
Employed 261,000 258,700 2,300 0.9 263,300
Unemployed 11,600 14,800 -3,200 -21.6 11,700
Unemployment Rate 4.3 5.4 -1.1 --- 4.3
NEW LONDON LMA Civilian Labor Force 156,000 154,200 1,800 1.2 156,800
Employed 148,200 145,200 3,000 2.1 149,000
Unemployed 7,900 8,900 -1,000 -11.2 7,800
Unemployment Rate 5.0 5.8 -0.8 --- 5.0
STAMFORD LMA Civilian Labor Force 193,100 191,700 1,400 0.7 192,600
Employed 187,600 185,100 2,500 1.4 187,200
Unemployed 5,500 6,700 -1,200 -17.9 5,400
Unemployment Rate 2.9 3.5 -0.6 --- 2.8
TORRINGTON LMA Civilian Labor Force 37,800 37,900 -100 -0.3 37,900
Employed 36,700 36,300 400 1.1 36,800
Unemployed 1,100 1,600 -500 -31.3 1,100
Unemployment Rate 3.0 4.1 -1.1 --- 2.9
WATERBURY LMA Civilian Labor Force 119,600 116,600 3,000 2.6 120,000
Employed 114,100 109,700 4,400 4.0 114,300
Unemployed 5,500 6,800 -1,300 -19.1 5,600
Unemployment Rate 4.6 5.9 -1.3 --- 4.7
UNITED STATES Civilian Labor Force 136,912,000 134,973,000 1,939,000 1.4 136,665,000
Employed 130,999,000 128,157,000 2,842,000 2.2 130,671,000
Unemployed 5,914,000 6,816,000 -902,000 -13.2 5,995,000
Unemployment Rate 4.3 5.0 -0.7 --- 4.4
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
●
20
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST January 1998
MANUFACTURING HOURS AND EARNINGS
AVG WEEKLY EARNINGS AVG WEEKLY HOURS AVG HOURLY EARNINGS
NOV CHG OCT NOV CHG OCT NOV CHG OCT
(Not seasonally adjusted) 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997
MANUFACTURING $638.24 $607.39 $30.85 $625.74 43.3 43.2 0.1 42.8 $14.74 $14.06 $0.68 $14.62
DURABLE GOODS 656.81 620.31 36.50 638.78 43.7 43.5 0.2 42.9 15.03 14.26 0.77 14.89
Lumber & Furniture 494.08 470.18 23.89 477.77 41.8 41.1 0.7 40.8 11.82 11.44 0.38 11.71
Stone, Clay and Glass 585.90 595.76 -9.86 613.81 43.4 44.0 -0.6 45.4 13.50 13.54 -0.04 13.52
Primary Metals 642.61 591.84 50.78 629.24 46.6 44.2 2.4 45.4 13.79 13.39 0.40 13.86
Fabricated Metals 611.23 585.55 25.68 601.87 44.1 43.6 0.5 43.9 13.86 13.43 0.43 13.71
Machinery 713.29 674.25 39.04 688.38 45.9 45.1 0.8 44.7 15.54 14.95 0.59 15.40
Electrical Equipment 508.39 491.10 17.29 498.17 41.4 42.3 -0.9 40.7 12.28 11.61 0.67 12.24
Trans. Equipment 849.37 779.24 70.13 807.03 44.1 44.3 -0.2 42.7 19.26 17.59 1.67 18.90
Instruments 585.22 556.93 28.29 579.96 41.3 41.5 -0.2 40.9 14.17 13.42 0.75 14.18
Miscellaneous Mfg 570.57 553.56 17.01 554.44 41.8 42.0 -0.2 41.1 13.65 13.18 0.47 13.49
NONDUR. GOODS 592.07 576.73 15.34 593.73 42.2 42.5 -0.3 42.5 14.03 13.57 0.46 13.97
Food 527.90 507.04 20.86 537.11 42.3 43.3 -1.0 42.9 12.48 11.71 0.77 12.52
Textiles 484.50 455.31 29.19 495.94 42.5 40.4 2.1 43.2 11.40 11.27 0.13 11.48
Apparel 333.84 346.42 -12.57 339.69 39.0 39.5 -0.5 39.0 8.56 8.77 -0.21 8.71
Paper 708.99 705.17 3.82 703.80 46.4 46.7 -0.3 46.0 15.28 15.10 0.18 15.30
Printing & Publishing 581.34 562.91 18.42 596.17 39.2 39.2 0.0 40.2 14.83 14.36 0.47 14.83
Chemicals 805.04 787.97 17.07 792.51 45.1 45.6 -0.5 44.8 17.85 17.28 0.57 17.69
Rubber & Misc. Plast. 512.62 494.21 18.41 497.12 42.4 42.9 -0.5 42.2 12.09 11.52 0.57 11.78
CONSTRUCTION 769.22 767.56 1.66 789.66 40.4 41.2 -0.8 41.3 19.04 18.63 0.41 19.12
LMAs AVG WEEKLY EARNINGS AVG WEEKLY HOURS AVG HOURLY EARNINGS
NOV CHG OCT NOV CHG OCT NOV CHG OCT
MANUFACTURING 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997
Bridgeport $651.67 $638.75 $12.92 $628.58 43.1 43.9 -0.8 42.5 $15.12 $14.55 $0.57 $14.79
Danbury 664.55 680.09 -15.54 665.68 45.3 45.4 -0.1 45.1 14.67 14.98 -0.31 14.76
Danielson 472.89 473.56 -0.67 481.66 41.3 40.2 1.1 42.4 11.45 11.78 -0.33 11.36
Hartford 686.65 653.40 33.25 676.50 44.3 44.0 0.3 43.9 15.50 14.85 0.65 15.41
Lower River 542.69 496.52 46.17 500.21 42.2 40.4 1.8 40.9 12.86 12.29 0.57 12.23
New Haven 616.16 588.83 27.33 610.45 42.7 42.7 0.0 42.1 14.43 13.79 0.64 14.50
New London 645.20 605.04 40.16 646.28 42.7 41.9 0.8 42.8 15.11 14.44 0.67 15.10
Stamford 568.62 591.36 -22.74 566.21 40.5 42.0 -1.5 41.0 14.04 14.08 -0.04 13.81
Torrington 562.22 553.19 9.03 556.85 42.4 43.8 -1.4 41.9 13.26 12.63 0.63 13.29
Waterbury 589.25 598.52 -9.27 590.54 43.2 44.9 -1.7 43.2 13.64 13.33 0.31 13.67
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
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22
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST January 1998
TECHNICAL NOTES
BUSINESS STARTS AND TERMINATIONS
DOL newly registered employers are those businesses newly registered with the Labor Department’s unemployment insurance program
(including reopened accounts) during the month. DOL discontinued employers are those accounts that are terminated due to inactivity (no
employees) or business closure. Registrations and terminations of business entities as recorded with the Secretary of the State are an
indication of new business formation and activity. These registrations include limited liability companies, limited liability partnerships, and
foreign-owned (out-of-state) and domestic-owned (in-state) corporations.
INITIAL CLAIMS
Average weekly initial claims are calculated by dividing the total number of new claims for unemployment insurance received in the month by
the number of weeks in the month. A minor change in methodology takes effect with data published in the March 1997 issue of the DIGEST.
Data have been revised back to January 1980.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has identified the five towns of Canaan, Kent, North Canaan, Salisbury and Sharon as a separate area for
reporting labor force data. For the convenience of our data users, data for these towns are included in the Torrington Labor Market Area. For
the same purpose, data for the town of Thompson, which is officially part of the Worcester Metropolitan Statistical Area, are included in the
Danielson Labor Market Area. Also, data for Hopkinton and Westerly, Rhode Island are included in the New London Labor Market Area.
UI COVERED WAGES
UI covered wages is the total amount paid to those employees who are covered under the Connecticut’s Unemployment Insurance (UI) law for
services performed during the quarter. The fluctuations in the 1992-93 period reflect the effect of the changes in the tax law and the massive
restructuring in the state’s economy.
Leading Employment Index .......... +1.5 Business Activity Tourism and Travel
Coincident Employment Index ...... +7.9 New Housing Permits ................... -17.9 Tourism Inquiries ........................... -31.6
Electricity Sales .............................. -0.6 Tourism Info Centers ..................... -24.0
Total Nonfarm Employment .......... +2.1 Retail Sales ................................... +6.5 Attraction Visitors ........................... +9.9
Construction Contracts Index ....... +44.8 Hotel-Motel Occupancy ................. +0.6
Unemployment .............................. -1.1* New Auto Registrations .................. +9.5 Air Passenger Count ..................... +4.6
Labor Force ................................... +6.9 Air Cargo Tons ................................ -3.1
Employed ...................................... +1.6 Employment Cost Index (U.S.)
Unemployed ................................. -18.6 Total ............................................... +3.2
Business Starts Wages & Salaries .......................... +3.6
Average Weekly Initial Claims ........ -5.3 Secretary of the State .................... +5.4 Benefit Costs ................................. +2.0
Help Wanted Index -- Hartford ....... +2.8 Dept. of Labor ................................. -8.1
Average Ins. Unempl. Rate ......... -0.21* Consumer Price Index
Business Terminations U.S. City Average ........................... +1.8
Average Weekly Hours, Mfg .......... +0.2 Secretary of the State ................... -16.3 Northeast Region ........................... +1.9
Average Hourly Earnings, Mfg ...... +4.8 Dept. of Labor ................................ +5.9 NY-NJ-Long Island ......................... +2.1
Average Weekly Earnings, Mfg ..... +5.1 Boston-Lawrence-Salem ............... +2.6
Manufacturing Output ................... +1.9 Consumer Confidence
Production Worker Hours ................ -0.7 State Tax Collections ..................... +2.8 U.S. ............................................. +17.2
Productivity .................................... +2.6 Corporate Tax ................................. +8.5 New England .............................. +30.8
Personal Income Tax ...................... +2.5
Personal Income ............................ +5.5 Real Estate Conveyance Tax .......... +1.5 Interest Rates
UI Covered Wages ......................... +6.8 Sales & Use Tax ............................. +6.7 Prime .......................................... +0.25*
Conventional Mortgage ............... -0.41*
*Percentage point change; **Less than 0.05 percent; NA = Not Available
THE CONNECTICUT
ECONOMIC DIGEST
A joint publication of
The Connecticut Departments of Labor and
Economic and Community Development
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