Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| August 22, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| August 22, 2013

Highlights
Indian Rupee touched an all-time time low of 64.545 in yesterdays trade. FOMC Minutes yesterday showed signs of QE tapering by year end. US Existing Home Sales increased to 5.39 million in last month. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1-mark in August.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 21, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI

5302.6 17905.9 14897.55 1642.8 17463.5 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 103.85 1370.60 23.07

-1.8 -1.9 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 -1.5 0.2 0.2 -1.1 -0.2 -0.4

-12.1 -11.2 -2.9 -2.9 0.0 2.4 14.9 -0.1 -2.8 0.7 5.9

-12.1 -11.2 -4.2 -2.9 6.3 2.5 18.4 4.6 -1.6 3.7 14.5

-1.2 -2.1 12.8 16.2 15.2 0.5 -1.5 66.3 7.4 -16.4 -21.6

Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of statement from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that QE tapering might begin by the end of the year if economy improves along with few members saying the pullback in stimulus measures should be begin soon. US Existing Home Sales increased to 5.39 million in July as against a rise of 5.06 million in June. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing hasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 2.4 points to 50.1-mark mark in August from 47.7 47.7-level in July.

BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

US Dollar Index
The Dollar Index (DX) gained around 0.4 percent yesterday on the back of statement from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and its members bers that QE tapering is possible by this year if economy improves. Further, rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of more than expected rise ise in US existing home sales data. The currency touched an intra-day day high of 81.55 and closed at 81.22 on Wednesday.

7271.00 102.09

-0.7 0.0

-0.7 11.2

-7.3 8.9

-4.3 2.7

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day WoW

as on August 21, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar/INR
Dollar Index

81.22 64.11 64.47 64.50

0.4 -1.6 1.55 1.56

-0.7 -4.6 8.28 8.35

-1.4 -7.4 8.28 8.35

2.2 -13.4 16.00 16.05

The Indian Rupee depreciated around 1.6 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated in the initial part of the trade on the back of measures taken by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday. However, during the latter part of the trade e the currency gains and depreciated on account of dollar demand from Further, weak global and domestic markets and strength exerted downside pressure on the currency. The currency fresh low of 64.545 and closed at t 64.11 on Wednesday. erased its importers. in the DX touched a

US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Technical Chart USD/INR

For the month of August 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.919.80 crores st ($137.75 million) as on 21 August 2013. Year to date basis, net capital st inflows stood at Rs.65172.50 crores ($12348.0 million) till 21 August 2013. Outlook In todays session, we expect Rupee to trade on a depreciation note as a result of dollar demand from importers coupled with weak global and domestic market sentiments. Further, strength in the DX will exert downside pressure in the currency. Additionally, y, long term worries still persist regarding the CAD and economic growth of the country which will act as a negative factor. However, any measures declared by the RBI or selling of dollars will cushion sharp fall else even reversal in the Rupee.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for August 22, 2013 Support 64.10/63.80 Resistance 65.0/65.30

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| August 22, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro declined around 0.4 percent yesterday taking cues from strength in the DX. Further, weak global market sentiments exerted downside pressure on the currency. 1.3356 on The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3334 and closed at 1.3 Wednesday. Outlook In today's session, we expect Euro to trade lower on the back of strength in the DX. Further, weak global market sentiments will exert downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be prevented as a result of expectations of favorable manufacturing and services data from the region. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 86.30/86.0 86.80/87.10 valid for August 22, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on August 21, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3356 85.63 85.1 85.1

-0.4 -1.1 -1.75 -1.71

0.8 -5.4 8.87 8.83

1.3 -8.8 8.87 8.83

6.6 -18.8 23.36 23.35

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Pound traded on a flat note in yesterdays trading session on the back of strength in the DX along with weak global market sentiments sentiments.

GBP (% change)

as on August 21, 2013

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot)

1.5658 100.135 101.45

-0.04 0.04 1.24 1.88

1.0 5.29 11.56

1.9 10.51 11.56

-1.4 14.62 15.89

However, favorable economic data from the country cushioned sharp fall in the currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intraday low of 1.5635 and closed at 1.5658 on Wednesday. UKs Public Sector Net Borrowing declined by 1.6 billion Pounds in July as against a rise of 10.5 billion Pounds in June. Outlook

GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

101.23

1.66

11.32

11.32

15.65

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound We expect Pound to trade on a negative note in today's trade on the back of strength in the DX. Additionally, weak global market sentiments will exert downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for August 22, 2013 Support 100.90/100.70 Resistance 101.60/101.90

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| August 22, 2013

JPY/INR
trade. The The Yen depreciated around 0.4 percent in yesterdays trade currency depreciated on account of mixed global markets in early part of the trade which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. The currency touched an intra-day day low of 97.98 and closed at 97.66 on Wednesday. Outlook We expect Yen to appreciate preciate in todays session on account of rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments which will lead to rise in demand for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for August 22, 2013 Support 66.0/65.70 Resistance 66.50/66.70

JPY (% change)
Last Prev day

as on August 21, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

97.66 0.656 66.26 66.26

0.4 1.06 1.49 1.41

-0.5 4.66 11.53 11.57

-2.0 11.16 11.53 11.57

24.3 -6.18 -5.22 -5.21

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on August 22, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI Unemployment Claims Flash Manufacturing PMI Jackson Hole Symposium

China Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro US US All

7:15am 12:30pm 12:30pm 1:00pm 1:00pm 1:30pm 1:30pm 6:00pm 6:30pm Day 1

50.1 -

48.3 50.4 49.3 51.1 51.7 50.9 50.2 329K 54.1 -

47.7 49.7 48.6 50.7 51.3 50.3 49.8 320K 53.7 -

High High Medium High Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium

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