216 International Journal of Management Vol. 24 No.

2 June 2007

A Comparative Test of Two Employee Turnover

Prediction Models
Wei-Chiang Hong
Oriental Institute of Technology, Taiwan
Ruey-Ming Chao
Oriental Institute of Technology, Taiwan

Accurate employee turnover prediction models are critical in the early detection of
unanticipated turnover, giving managers sufficient time to deal with turnover related
management issues. The logit and probit models have been successfully applied to solve
nonlinear classifying and regression problems. However, the feasibility of applying them
to voluntary turnover prediction still has not been sufficiently explored. Consequently, a
numerical example involving voluntary turnover data fmm a motor marketing enterprise
in central Taiwan is employed, and the empirical results reveal that the proposed models
have high prediction capabilities. Accordingly, these two models also provide a promising
alternative for predicting employee turnover in human resource management.

1 Introduction
1.1 Employee turnover
An increasing number of models that accurately predict employee turnover provide early
detection of unanticipated turnover, particularly from high performance employees.
Meanwhile, accurate prediction models also leave managers with adequate time
to deal with turnover related management issues (Morrow. McElroy. & Laczniak,
1999). Generally, two forms of employee turnover exist, involuntary turnover and
voluntary turnover. Involuntary turnover is frequently delined as movements across
organizational boundaries, over which the employee is only slightly affected (Price,
1977), the representation forms of withdrawal from an organization often categorized
with strategy (e.g. downsizing), dismissal (e.g. firing), or policy (e.g. compulsory
retirement) (Campion, 1991). In contrast, voluntary turnover is defined as movements
across organizational boundaries, over which the employee is heavily affected (Price,
1977), the representation forms of withdrawal from an organization often categorized
with absenteeism and lateness (Campion, 1991).

In accordance with the above definitions, involuntary turnover is most often initiated
by organizational changes and institutional constraints, and it is easy to understand the
scope and the affections for the organization. However, employers find it especially
difficult to precisely predict the withdrawal forms, the affection and the timing t)f
voluntary turnover in an organization, such as the number of individuals leaving,
which individuals are leaving, and how individuals are leaving. In other words, the
employers have to understand the damages resulting from high performance employees
leaving, and the benefits resulting from poor performance employees leaving (Dalton
& Todor, 1982; Simons & Hinkin, 2001) as well as the methods of withdrawal used by
International Joumal of Management Vol. 24 No. 2 June 2007 217

departing employees (Morrow et a!., 1999). Tberefore, the voluntary turnover modeling
methodology and novel prediction approach have attracted considerable attention during
recent decades. Mobley (1977)firstproposed structural models for representing employee
turnover: job dissatisfaction —> thinking of quitting —> intention to search (for a new
job)—> intention to quit-> (voluntary) turnover. Based on this brief mcxlel of voluntary
tumover, job satisfaction is an indirect link in initialing actual voluntary turnover (Muller,
Boyer, Price, & Iverson, 1994; van Breukelen, van der Vlist, & Steensma, 2004).
Researchers also added organizational commitment as an intervening variable to explain
the outcomes, stay intentions or tumover (Inverson, 1992; Muller, Wallace, & Price,
1992; Price, 1986). In addition, numerous empirical research studies have suggested that
greater organizational commitments imply greater intent to stay, i.e., lower voluntary
turnover (Lincoln & Kalleberg, 1996; Muller et a!., 1992; Price, 1986; Somers, 1995).

Job performance bas become an increasingly popular influence on decisions related

to employee turnover, due to its functional indication of withdrawal process for
understanding the management status of an organization. For example, losing high
performance employees implies high human resource costs and implicates organizational
operations. The relationships between performance and turnover can be briefly divided
into four categories, a positive relationsbip, a negative relationship, no relationship and
a non-linear (curvilinear) relationship. (Jackofsky, 1986). Birnbaum and Somers (1993)
suggested that no relationship exists between employee performance and turnover.
Furthermore, Lazarsfeld and Theilens (1958), and Schwab (1991) presented evidence
of a positive relationship between performance and turnover. They indicated higher
turnover among high performance employees. However, Steers and Mowday (198!)
indicated that high job performance heightened both expected and actual organizational
rewards, while low job performance caused low attitudes regarding the intrinsic worth of
a job. Similarly, Jackofsky (1984) suggested that iow job performance is asscKiated with
high voluntary turnover, due to employees realizing tbat tbeir employment is in peril.
Therefore, tumover displays a curvilinear relationship with low turnover being associated
with medium job performance, while higb turnover is associated witb extremely good or
bad job performance. Lance (1988) and Trevor, Gerbart, and Boundreau (1997) applied
the curvilinear relationship to conduct a moderator of employee turnover via salary
growtb and promotions. Tbe negative relationship between performance and turnover
appears to be the major conclusive finding, indicating that high performance employees
would be less likely to leave than lower performance ones. McEvoy and Cacsio (1987),
Vecchio and Norris (1996), and Williams and Livingstone (1994) found the correlations
between the two (high performance employees and lower performance ones) are -0.19,
-0.28 and -0.16, respectively. Moreover, Morrow et al. (1999) also demonstrated that a
statistically significant negative relationship exists between the two ones. The profound
recommendations of negative relationship from Williams and Livingstone (1994) are Ihal
while those organizational reward systems were contingent on or tied to performance,
the employees with poor performance would tend to leave, particularly in organization
marketing departments.
218 International Joumal of Management Vol. 24 No. 2 June 2007

1.2 Binary choice approaches to voluntary tumover prediction

As mentioned previously, employee turnover should be viewed as the initiated discrete
choice of each employee. Therefore, the voluntary turnover prediction model could be
suitable for discrete choice models.
Generally, discrete choice models include the initiated choice (turnover choice) model
and the passive choice (under objective pressure) model. Discrete choice models are
used to predict choices of alternatives among numerous discrete altematives. The chosen
alternatives are not only based on tbe cbaracteristies of cboosers (individual performance)
but also the attributes of each alternative. In this study, multinomial choice only implies
tending to leave the organization or remain there, i.e., the choice is binomial. Discrete
choice models are now widely applied in social science, particularly with the increasing
apphcation of McFadden's (1973) multinomial (or binomial) logistic regression model
(namely logit model). Kim and Arbel (1998) applied the logit model to predict merger
target selection fora hospitality company, and claimed tbat tbe logit model can be used as
a supplementary decision-supporting tool. Nassimberni (2001) proposed using the logit
model to predict the altitude towards exporting of small manufacturing firms. The studies
indicated that tbe logit model provides a robust approach which showed that exports are
strictly linked to firms' ability to innovate the products and to valid inter-organizational
relations rather than technological profiles. Similarly, Kim and Kwon (2003) applied the
logit model to detect Korean mobile telephone market segmentation, and indicated that
the logit modei successfully demonstrated that the consumers preferred carriers dealing
with other things even although they have a large number of subscribers. Meanwhile,
Kim and Kwon also reported an approach for increasing consumer sources, such as
intra-network call discounts and quality signaling effects. Additionally, Tseng and Yu
(2005) proposed a MNL model combined with fuzzy integral technology to partition
tbe Taiwanese Internet telephone market into four segments (market share), IP devices
(7%), computers (5%), IP cards (22%), and traditional phones (66%). Recently, logit
models have also been applied to forecasting choice between two discrete alternatives
(fail or non-fail), such as forecasting growth of market share (Agrawal & Schoriing,
1996), bankruptcy forecasting (Tseng & Lin, 2005) and business cycle (Layton &
Katsuura, 2001).
However, logit models have the property of the relative probabilities of eacb alternative
being independent in terms of tbe presence or characteristics over all other alternatives.
This properly, known as the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA), indicates
that introducing or improving any alternative will equally and proportionally impact
the probability of each otber alternative (Stopber, Meyburg, & Brg, 1981). Tbis
representation of choice bebavior is impractical and results in biased estimates and
inconect predictions: for example, any improvement of tumover altematives (leave
or stay) never has equal impact probability with each otber. To relax the IIA property
restriction of the logit model, the multinomial (binomial) probability regression model
(namely probit model) allows a completely free correlation structure among the discrete
choice alternatives. Similarly, probit models have been employed in binary choice
International Journal of Management Vol. 24 No. 2 June 2007 219

prediction: Dow and Endersby (2004) compared the mtiltinomial logit model (MNL) and
the multinomial probit model (MNP) for analyzing voting choice in the United States
and France, and found that the simpler logit model i.s frequently preferable to tbe more
complex pro/j//regarding multi-party elections. Therefore, the/o^'//and/?ra/?f7 models are
highly suitable for application to employee voluntary turnover qualitative choices.
This investigation employs the negative relationship between performance and voluntary
turnover to construct the employee leaving prediction model. Two conventionally
adopted statistical forecasting approaches, tbe basic (binomial) logit and basic (binomial)
probit models, are employed to compare their prediction performance. The rest of this
paper is organized as follows. Section 2 introduces the proposed logit and probit models.
Section 3 then presents a numerical example involving a motor marketing enterprise
in Taiwan to demonstrate the predictive capacity of the proposed model. Conclusions
are drawn in section 4. .

2 Model specifications
2.1 Logit model
This study assumes that the state S., for each employee observation, appears absolute
certainty in the turnover prediction models. Thus, let S^ = 1, when an employee has left
the organization, i.e., voluntary turnover; in contrast, 5.^0, when an employee remains
in the organization, i.e., non-turnover. The turnover variable S is modeled directly as
the dependent variable in a model using the logistic function, represented as Eqs. (1)
and (2), respectively,
exp(/Jc) 1
P(S.= ,turnover) = ^ ^' = -— (1)

P(S- = 0, Qon-tumover) = -; -^— (2)

', I I + exp(/Jx-.)
where Jtj denotes the explanatory variable for the turnover variable., in this investigation
X- represents the job-performance of eacb employee /; ^are the variable coefficients of
the logit model and would be estimated.
Equations (I) and (2) are then estimated by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE),
with the turnover/non-turnover information used as the training data set. The values of
variable coefficients, /3., are calculated for each technique as Ihe log odds ratio using the
estimated probability of the teehnique. After determining the values of /?., estimation
is easily performed using any software with a loglt regression routine.
Finally, the prediction values of turnover variable S obtained from this model forecast
5. being either voluntary turnover (5^. = 1) or non-turnover (5, = 0).
2.2 Probit model
As in the logit model, assume that the state S-, for each etnployee observation,
appears with absolute certainty in the turnover prediction models. However, the logit
and probit models differ in that, rather than the logit function, a cumulative standard
220 International Journal of Management Vol. 24 No. 2 June 2007

normal distribution functional form (i.e., with unit variance and zero mean value) is
employed in this section. Therefore, when an employee voluntarily decides to leave,
let S- = 1; otherwise, in contrast, 5. = 0, when an employee decides to remain, let
S- = 0. The turnover variable S is modeled directly as the dependent variable in a model
of the form as Eq.(3),
(3)

e'''"dx (4)

where O() denotes the cumulative standard normal distribution function, and is defined
as Eq.(4); jf. is also represented as the job-performance of each employee / for the turnover
variable; ^are the estimated variable coefficients o(\heprobit model.
Equation (3) is once again estimated by MLE via the training data set of lurnover/non-
turnover. The values of variables coefficients. /3 . are also calculated for eacb technique
as the log odds ratio using the estimated probability of that teehnique. The estimation
is easily performed using any software with a probit regression routine. Finally, the
prediction values of turnover variable S^ can also be calculated from Ihis probit model,
being eitber voluntary turnover (S = 1) or non-turnover ( 5 . - 0).
Both the logit and probit models guarantee that the estimated probabilities are between 0
and 1. However, no compelling theoretical reasons exist for either model being superior,
or more suitable in specific situations. Further details can be found in Greene (2003).

2.3 Measure indice.s of prediction performance

Although one model can rarely be the optimum choice for a given set of employee
turnover data, the accuracy of the prediction model needs to be assessed so that the
model that generally works best and produces the smallest error can be identified. There
are a number of methods of calculating, measuring and interpreting errors, for example
Cox and Snell R^ (Cox & Snell, 1989). Nagelkerke R^^ (Nagelkerke, 1991), McFadden
R~ (McFadden, 1973), and the classification table and model Chi-square test (Greene,
2003). However, because this study focuses on predicting whether an individual will
remain or leave an organization based on their job-performance, the success rate of
correct prediction (based on a classification table) should be the primary consideration,
rather than evaluating the explanatory capability of the proposed model.
Diebold and Rudebusch (1989) proposed an effective method of quantifying the above.
This method is widely known as the Quadratic Probability Score (QPS), defined in Eq.
(5),
QPS = x^(P -D.)^ (5)

where T denotes Ihe number of prediction periods; D takes the value 1 in Ihe event of
voluntary turnover and 0 otherwise; P is the model derived probability for employee
/. If the value of QPS is near 0. it implies an accurate model.
International Journal of Management Vol. 24 No. 2 June 2007 221

This study employs the classitication table and QPS to examine how the prediction model
performs. Meanwhile, the proposed models are implemented by statistical software,
SPSS for Windows 10.0 version. Some useful statistics, Cox and Snell R , Nagelkerke
R~, MeFadden R and the Chi-square test, are also introduced in the numerical example
for reference.
3 Numerical example
3.1 Data set and research structure
The sample was comprised of 150 professional employees drawn from a motor marketing
company located in the central Taiwan, which has operated since 1992, and has an annual
business volume of 300 million NTD and over 2(K) marketing specialists. Due to missing
data (item non-response), Ihe useabie sample size was 132. All participants had direct
responsibility for motor marketing, motor maintenance, and held the minimum of an
associate degree for sales. Attitudinal data were gathered from a questionnaire survey
that was distributed and collected on Ihe intranet web-site. Respondents were given
the opportunity to complete the questionnaire during their work time and were asked
to provide their employee personnel numbers to allow access to their personnel files.
Confidcniialiiy of all information collected was assured and maintained. The response
rate to the survey was 88 percent. The sample was 83 percent male, 3 percent Aborigine
and 15 per cent Hakka, and had a mean age of 31.7 years old.
In this investigation, the data set is used to demonstrate the forecasting accuracy of
the proposed models. The data contained a total of 132 marketing specialists and their
voluntary turnover status for 2003. The variables included in this study are composed
of two distinct subsets. The first subset, represents the antecedents of turnover from
theory and researchfindings:job-performance (mainly assessed by motor sales volumes
in 2003), organizational commitment and job withdrawal intentions (Meyer & Allen,
1990; Mobley, 1982; Mowday, Steers, & Porter, 1982). The second subset of variables is
composed of non-work influences on turnover and includes: age, number of dependent
children, and race/ethnicity (Aborigine, Hakka, and Han). Although turnover is usually
influenced by work and non-work factors, turnover research has concentrated primarily
on work-related variables (Mobley, 1982; Mowday etal., 1982). However, it is interesting
to see that some non-work antecedents of turnover were consistent with a time-based
variable which had some relationship to work and family. For example, age is a time-
based variable that affects one's job mobility and one's stage in the personal and family
life-cycles. Similarly, number of dependent children is a non-work influence of turnover
that is linked to life-stage and job mobility. Finally, race in Taiwan has been shown to
infiuence expectations about job-performance. Due to the stigma of being a minority.
Aborigine (2 per cent of total population, see Taiwan Government Information Office,
2005) and Hakka (28 per cent, see Taiwan Government Infonnation Office, 2005) in
Taiwan often have diminished expectations about their job-performance. During several
thousand years, these Aborigines and Hakka lived in isolation in the plains, coastal,
and mountain areas of Taiwan. Because of subsequent migration, ihe Aborigines and
222 International Joumal of Management Vol. 24 No. 2 June 2007

Hakka in the coast and plains were progressively assimilated by immigrant groups,
and now most identifiable aboriginal tribes are limited to less accessible regions in the
mountains. Aborigines and Hakka sometimes viewed by tbe Taiwanese mainstream
culture as lacking in loyalty, passion, and responsible. Therefore, race can be viewed
as a non-work influence of turnover tied to relationsbips between race and turnover.
Tbe research structure of this investigation is shown in Fig. I.
3.2 Prediction procedures
The data set is divided into two parts, the modeling data set (containing employees one
to 100) and the testing data set (containing employees 101 to 132). The modeling data
set is used to test the logit and probit models. The testing data set is not used for either
model building or selection, and is used for estimating model performance when applied
to future data. Table I lists the different data sets for this example.
Since the logit and probit prediction models include the explanatory coefficient
variables (constant item and job-performance), /3 , requiring estimation via the MLE
procedure, the Maximum likelihood estimation procedure can be employed to determine
the free parameters for the logit and probit models. Table 2 lists tbe results of these
coefficients for each proposed model. For the logit model, the explanatory capability
exceeds 50% (the Nagelkerke R^ is 0.529); the two estimated coefficients 0Q and /?,
are also statistically significant, and have values of -0.206 and 2.343 respectively. For
Figure 1 Research structure of voluntary turnover

Age
Annua motor
j sales volumes 1
< 1

Gender

Job-performance

Race

Organization
committee
International Joumal of Management Vol. 24 No. 2 June 2(M)7 223

tbe probit model, tbe explanatory capability also exceeds 50% (the Nagelkerke's R' is
0.521); the two estimated coefficients ^^ and ^j are also statistically significant, and
bave values -0.112 and 1.361 respectively.
Table 3 summarizes the prediction accuracy during tbe training stage for each proposed
model. For the logit model, the success rate for predicting individual employee turnover
is 87.3%. In contrast, the success rate for predicting non-turnover is only 57.8%, and
the total rate of correct prediction 74%. The QPS is 0.1829. For the prohit model, the
rate of correctly predicting individual employee tumover is 89.1%, however, the rate of
correctly predicting non-turnover is only 51.1%. Finally, the QPS is 0.2976.
I

3.3 Prediction results

Table 4 compares the prediction results obtained using the proposed models in the
testing stage. For the logit and probit models, tbe success rates for prediction of
employee tumover hotb reacbed 95.2%, wbicb tbe success rates for predicting non-
turnover reached only 27.3%; thus tbe total success rate for predicting was 71.9%.
Tbe QPS of applying the logit and probit models was 0.1240 and 0.1689 respectively.

Table 1 Various data sets for the logit model and probit models
Logit / Probit models
Data periods 1st-132nd
Training data periods Ist-lOOth
Testing data periods iOlst-132nd

Table 2 Coefficients of explanatory variables for logit and probit models

Logii Probil
model model
Explanatory Estimated Stand p-value Explanatory Estimated Stand p-value
variables coefficients error variables coefficients error
(A,and^,) (^oand/?,)
Constant -0.206 0.041 0.000** Constant -0.112 0.020 0.000**
Job- 2.343 0.437 0,000** Job- 1.361 0.228 0.000**
performance performance
Model Chi-square p-value 0.000** Model Chi-square p- 0.000**
(d.f.=l) value (d-f.=l)
• Cox and Snell/;- 0.387 Cox and Snell/?^ 0.382
Nagelkerke R^^ 0.529 Nagelkerke/;^ 0.521
McFadden R~ 0.372 McFadden;;- 0.365
224 International Journal of Management Vol. 24 No. 2 June 2(M)7

Table 3 The prediction accuracy in the training stage

for logit and probit models

Logit model Probit model

Actual Actual Total AclULlI Actual Total

turnover non- turnover non-
(5,=l) tumover (S=\) turnover
iS,=O) (S^=0)
Predict as Predict as
"turnover"
48 19 67 49 22 71
"turnover"
Predict Predict
as"non- 7 26 33 as"non- 6 23 29
tu mover" turnover"
Total ?5 45 100 Total 55 45 100
Success Success
rate for 87.3% 57.8% 74.0% rate for 89.1% 51.1% 72.0%
predi cling predicting

OPS 0.1829 OPS 0.2976

Table 4 The prediction accuracy in the testing stage

for logit and probit models

Logit model Probil model

Actual Actual Total Actual Actual Total

turnover non- tumover non-
(5,=1) tumover (5,=!) turnover
(S,-=0) (S,=0)
Predict as Predict as
"turnover"
19 8 27 19 8 27
"tumover"
Predict Predict
as "non- 2 3 5 as "non- 2 3 5
tu mover" tu mover"
Total 21 11 32 Total 21 11 32
Success Success
rate for 90.5% 27.3% 71.9% rate for 90.5% 27.3% 71.9%
predicting predicting

OPS 0.1240 OPS 0.1689

International Journal of Managemenl Vol. 24 No. 2 June 2(M)7 225

From a statistical perspective, the model Chi-squarc te.sts are signilicant for both these
two models, but the logit model is superior to the probit model in terms ot explanatory
capability (the value.s of Cox and Snell /?', Nagelkerke v and McFadden R' are slightly
better than {)^'S-probit model). However, during the testing stage., the classilicalion test
(Table 4) indicates that the prediction performance of the logit model equals that of the
probit model. Therefore, the Quadratic Probability Score (QPS), as given by Eq.(4). is
employed to demonstrate the prediction accuracy of these two models. As mentioned
above, the minimum values of QPS indicate that the deviations between aetual and
forecast values are very small. The comparison results demonstrate that the prediction
accuracy ofthe logit model is superior to that o{ ihc probit model (in bolh Ihe training
and testing stages).

I 4 Discussions and Conclusions

Sinee aceurately predicting employee turnover is essential in the eariy detection of
unanticipated turnover of an organization, particularly for high performance employees,
on appropriate and efficient prediction model must be adapted to conduel turnover
forecasting in advance. Turnover research should move in new directions based on
new assumptions and methodologies. This would raise new issues and problems
(such as involves neural networks, support vector machines to conduct classification
problem, i.e., stayer or leaver). This investigation applies logit and probit models to
predict employee voluntary turnover. Experimental results indicate that the proposed
technique provides an effective alternative for predicting employee voluntary turnover
for a non-linearly combined variable, namely job-performance. At present too many
studies of employee turnover use simple job-performance variables (age, race, gender,
organization committee, and annual motor sales volumes) for us loreaeh any definitive
conclusions about the utility of job-performance based prediction models of studying
employee turnover. Our findings provide a convenient research context to aecurately
predict the willing-decision of high perfomiance employees in the future. Interestingly,
our model indicate.s that raee/ethnieity is an important factor in job-performance which
affects withdrawal behavior. For example, in the testing stage, it was found that, in
Table 4, among the 32 employees there wasonly one Aborigine (located in the grid with
"predict as non-turnover" and "aetual turnover"), and 10 Hakka (kx;ated in the grid with
"predict as tumover" and "actual non-tumover"). This implies that Aborigine and Hakka
do not behave in such a way that the rules from mtxieling (logit or probit models) could
be applied to them. The present study offers a different perspective, i.e., race as a factor
affecting the perceived value of one's investments in an organization, which is consistent
with eommitment theory (Meyer & Allen, 1984) and theory and research on the topic of
demographic diversity in organizations (Cox. 1994). Similarly, our model also provides
evidence that gender is a secondary factor in affecting withdrawal behavior. Females in
Taiwan are traditionally expected to pay more attention to their family, even now that
Taiwan is a developed country. In table 4, it was found that there ten females (located
in the grid with "predict as turnover" and "aetual turnover") determined the turnover
results. Females in Taiwan appear to withdraw depending on the number of children and
226 International Journal of Management Vol. 24 No. 2 June 2001

the lime required to take care of their children, such that modeling could easily explain
their decision making. It suggests that gender or the numher of children are factors
affecting one's turnover decision in an organization. Finally, turnover might not always
he the result of a rational, ordered sequence hased on careful consideration of allernalivc
opportunities (Lee & Mitchell, 1994), but rather might he driven hy work attitudes such
as organizational cnmmilment. More generally, if the organization is designed for high
performance, then one would expect turnover hehavior to occur more rapidly and/or
without full consideration of its immediate personal consequences. The perception of
the organization committee and individual expectationa are the most important factors
to understand in order to explain, and to predict the withdrawal hehaviors of high
performance employees. In table 4, it was also found that twelve employees (located in
the grid with "predict as turnover" and "actual turnover") determined turnover perhaps
because this motor marketing company violated some aspects of the performance honus
policy during the hard-market exploration-period in 2(X)3. Almost all of the Top 20
sales managers (in this case is twelve employees including three regional managers,
four project managers, and five senior specialists) decided to leave the organization
after Lunar New Year. This case reveals that an organization committee mainly affects
high performance employees' investments in an organization, even if the committee
was more than they expected. If this kind of committee fails, they will find it difficult
to believe any important committee of this organization. Maybe job withdrawal is the
best policy for them under this kind of situation. In this sense, commitment reflects prior
behavior, while joh withdrawal intentions are future oriented.

The previous discussion is based on rigid modelsmodeling processes. However, turnover

behavior is not always as rational or as logical as results from turnover research would
have us believe; turnover might not always he the result of a rational decision-making
process characteristic of economic models of human behavior. This raises the issue of
whether the most widely accepted methods for studying turnover are sensitive enough
to detect deviations from the conceptual model that they are intended to test. Future
research could include other high independent variables, including job-satisfaction, the
gap between organization commitment and individual expectation (Allen & Griffeth,
1999; Currivan, 1999; Sager, Griffeth. & Hom, 1998). or the abnormal absenteeism of
some employees (Morrow et al., 1999), into the MNL and MNP models to enhance
their predictive power.
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