DAILY IFOREX REPORT

27th AUG 2013

HEADLINES
ECB Comments Continue To Confuse, But No Euro Worries Dollar Starts Week Mixed as Taper Speculation Becomes Data-Centric

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3380 TGT 1.3360/1.3330 SL 1.3410

After a strong midweek performance, the US Dollar slumped on Friday and its woes have continued into the last week of August. Sparked by a slew of weak housing figures on Friday, the bucks downturn has begun at a curious time for markets, given the fact that last week produced not only the July FOMC Minutes but also the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.

Indeed, there is one main takeaway from the fireworks (or lack thereof) last week: between now and September 19, the next FOMC meeting, only US economic data will drive market sentiment. Dovish or hawkish, the commentary was more or less the same from Fed officials this past week: September would be an appropriate time to taper if the economic data is strong.

SELL USDJPY ABOVE 98.40 TGT 98.10/97.70 SL 98.80

The first such opportunity to see if US data is moving in the right direction is today in the form of the Durable Goods Orders report for July. Durable goods are products with lifespans of three years or longer (appliances, automobiles, etc), and therefore the report is viewed as a proxy to consumer confidence and credit.

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5540 TGT 1.5520/1.5490 SL 1.5570

In light of the recent upswing in financing costs, purchases that would be aided by lower rates have taken a hit in recent months (as seen on Friday, housing). We find that the July report should show no difference from the general trend. The weakness seen in the US Dollar to start the week reflects positioning for a weaker report; and a beat here would go a long way to ease sentiment and put favor back in the bucks court.

 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 47(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARDRD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>47(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>40(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>52(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>54(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date
Sun Aug 25

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

22:45

NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (JUL) JPY Japan Economic Panel Meets on Sales Tax Increase (26-31)

Medium

-1688M

-956M

-816M

22:45

Medium

-774M

-16M

374M

22:45

Low

3.85B

3.90B

4.01B

22:45

Low

4.62B

3.90B

3.63B

23:50

Low

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

Mon Aug 26

Medium

08:00

ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks on Euro Economy USD Durable Goods Orders (JUL) USD Durables Ex Transportation (JUL) USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (JUL) USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (JUL) USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (AUG) USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (JUL) JPY Small Business Confidence (AUG) EUR German IFO Business Climate (AUG) EUR German IFO Current Assessment (AUG) EUR German IFO Expectations (AUG) USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Sweden EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks In Gothenburg, Sweden USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (JUN) USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

12:30

High

-4.0%

3.9%

12:30

Medium

0.5%

-0.1%

12:30

Low

0.5%

0.9%

12:30

Low

0.3%

-0.9%

14:30

Low

3.9

4.4

21:00

Low

Tue Aug 27

01:30

Low

11.1%

05:00

Medium

49.4

08:00

Medium

107

106.2

08:00

Medium

111

110.1

08:00

Medium

103.1

102.4

10:50

Low

11:00

Low

13:00

Low

1.0%

1.1%

13:00

Low

12.1%

12.2%

13:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (JUN) USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (2Q) USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) (2Q) USD Consumer Confidence (AUG) USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (AUG) CNY Leading Index (JUL) AUD CBAHIA House Affordability (2Q) GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (AUG) JPY BoJ Deputy Governor Iwata Speak at Kyoto Chamber of Commerce

Low

159.40

156.14

13:00

Low

136.7

13:00

Low

10.2%

14:00
LIVE

High

79.0

80.3

14:00

Low

-11

Wed Aug 28

Medium

99.55

00:00

Low

69.7

Low

0.6%

0.8%

Low

01:30

AUD Construction Work Done (2Q) CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (JUL) EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (SEP) EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (JUL) EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JUL) GBP CBI Reported Sales (AUG) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 23) CAD Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (JUN) GBP Bank of England Governor Carney to Speak on U.K. Economy USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JUL) USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (JUL) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (AUG 23) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 23)

Low

1.0%

-2.0%

06:00

Medium

1.44

06:00

Medium

7.1

7.0

06:00

Low

0.3%

-0.8%

06:00

Low

-2.5%

-2.2%

08:00

Low

2.4%

2.8%

08:00

Low

2.0%

2.3%

10:00

Low

20

17

11:00

Low

-4.6%

12:30

Low

2.5%

12:45

Medium

14:00

Medium

9.1%

14:00

Low

0.0%

-0.4%

14:30

Low

-1090K

14:30

Low

-1428K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 23) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 23) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (AUG 23) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (AUG 23) JPY Large Retailers' Sales (JUL) JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (AUG 23) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (AUG 23) JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUL) JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (JUL) AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JUL) NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (AUG) NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (AUG) AUD Private Capital Expenditure (2Q) JPY BOJ Board Member Morimoto Speech EUR German Unemployment Change (AUG) EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (AUG) GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (AUG) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (AUG P) EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG P) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (AUG P) EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG P) USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q S)

Low

871K

14:30

Low

-4029K

23:50

Medium

-903.8B

23:50

Medium

-3.0B

23:50

Medium

-0.5%

3.5%

23:50

Medium

-0.3%

1.6%

23:50

Low

38.7B

23:50

Low

47.9B

23:50

Low

1.7%

23:50

Low

-1.0%

-0.2%

Thu Aug 29

01:00

Medium

3.4%

01:00

Medium

52.8

01:00

Low

43.7

01:30

Low

0.0%

-4.7%

01:30

Low

07:55

High

-5K

-7K

07:55

High

6.8%

6.8%

08:30

Low

41

12:00

High

1.7%

1.9%

12:00

High

1.7%

1.9%

12:00

Medium

0.1%

0.4%

12:00

Medium

0.1%

0.5%

12:30

Medium

0.8%

0.8%

12:30

USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q S) USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q S) USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 23) USD Personal Consumption (2Q S) CAD Current Account (BoP) (Canadian dollar) (2Q) CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (JUL) CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (JUL) USD Continuing Claims (AUG 17) USD Fed's Bullard to Speak to Leadership Memphis USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (AUG 23) USD Fed's Lacker Speaks in Virginia NZD Building Permits (MoM) (JUL) GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (AUG) JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (AUG) JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) JPY Household Spending (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

2.2%

1.7%

12:30

Medium

0.7%

0.7%

12:30

Medium

330K

12:30

Medium

1.8%

1.8%

12:30

Low

-$14.8B

-$14.1B

12:30

Low

0.3%

0.3%

12:30

Low

0.7%

0.3%

12:30

Low

2990K

2990K

12:50

Low

14:30

Low

57

18:00

Low

22:45

Medium

1.3%

-4.0%

23:05

Medium

-14

-16

23:15

Medium

50.7

23:30
LIVE

High

0.7%

0.2%

23:30

Medium

0.2%

-0.4%

23:30
LIVE

JPY Jobless Rate (JUL) JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL) JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL) JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUL) JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG) JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG) JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) USD Fed's James Bullard to Speak on U.S. Economy

Medium

3.9%

3.9%

23:30

Medium

0.6%

0.4%

23:30

Medium

-0.2%

-0.2%

23:30

Low

0.93

0.92

23:30

Low

0.4%

0.3%

23:30

Low

-0.3%

-0.4%

23:30

Low

0.5%

0.4%

23:45

Medium

23:50

JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL P) JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL P) AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUL) AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUL) CNY MNI August Business Sentiment Indicator NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUL) JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUL) JPY Annualized Housing Starts (JUL) JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (JUL) JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (JUL) GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG) EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (AUG) EUR Italian Unemployment Rate (JUL P) EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (2Q) GBP Mortgage Approvals (JUL) GBP Net Consumer Credit (JUL) GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JUL) GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JUL) GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JUL) GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (AUG A) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (AUG F)

Medium

1.8%

-4.6%

23:50

Low

3.7%

-3.1%

Fri Aug 30

01:30

Medium

3.1%

3.1%

01:30

Low

0.4%

0.4%

01:45

Low

03:00

Low

6.2%

04:00

Low

-9.5%

05:00

Medium

0.996M

0.976M

05:00

Medium

14.3%

15.3%

05:00

Low

21.9%

06:00

Medium

3.3%

3.9%

06:00

Medium

1.7%

-2.8%

06:00

Low

0.6%

-1.5%

07:00

Medium

1.33

1.23

08:00

Low

12.2%

12.1%

08:00

Low

12.1%

11.9%

08:30

Medium

59.0K

57.7K

08:30

Medium

0.7B

0.5B

08:30

Low

3.9%

4.7%

08:30

Low

0.1%

08:30

Low

1.5%

08:30

Low

1.2B

1.0B

09:00

High

1.1%

1.1%

09:00

Medium

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (AUG) EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (AUG) EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (AUG) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (AUG) EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (AUG) CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (JUN) CAD Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized (2Q) CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (JUN) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUL) USD Personal Income (JUL) USD Personal Spending (JUL) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JUL) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JUL) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JUL) USD Fed's Bullard to Speak on U.S. Economy in Memphis USD NAPM-Milwaukee (AUG) USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (AUG) USD U. of Michigan Confidence (AUG F)

Medium

1.4%

1.6%

09:00

Medium

12.1%

12.1%

09:00

Low

-0.36

-0.53

09:00

Low

93.8

92.5

09:00

Low

-9.6

-10.6

09:00

Low

-6.7

-7.8

12:30
LIVE

High

1.6%

12:30
LIVE

High

1.6%

2.5%

12:30
LIVE

Medium

-0.5%

0.2%

12:30

Medium

1.3%

1.2%

12:30

Medium

0.2%

0.3%

12:30

Medium

0.3%

0.5%

12:30

Low

0.2%

0.2%

12:30

Low

0.2%

0.4%

12:30

Low

1.5%

1.3%

13:00

Low

13:00

Low

52.43

13:45

Medium

53.0

52.3

13:55

Medium

80.5

80.0

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