Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 29 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 29 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Government to check prices of essential commodities
In order to check hoarding and black-marketing of essential commodities, the government has taken steps to enable the state governments/union territory (UT) administration to take effective action for undertaking de-hoarding operations under the Essential Commodities Act, 1955. It was decided to enable state governments to impose stockholding limit by keeping in abeyance some provisions of the Central Order dated February 15, 2002. At present, stock limits exist for pulses, edible oils and edible oil seeds for a period up to 30.09.2013 and in respect of rice and paddy up to 30.11.2013. (Source: Economic Times)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 28, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

17996 5285 68.81 110.1 1419

0.16 -0.05 3.76 1.00 -0.11

0.50 -0.33 7.31 6.02 3.53

-8.87 -10.21 16.53 5.16 7.36

2.07 -0.93 23.61 14.29 -14.85

.Source: Reuters

Russian govt to reduce dependence on imported cotton

The Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade is aiming to reduce the dependence of domestic textile industry on imports by reviving the cotton production in Russia on the basis of modern technologies. George Kalamanov, the Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, said one of the ways to reduce dependence on imports of raw cotton and increase the level of economic security may be the revival of cotton production in Russia on the basis of modern technologies. The Minister was speaking at a meeting on the development prospects of cotton, held recently in the city of Astrakhan, in Southern European Russia. Deputy Minister Kalamanov said, in the last century, cotton was mainly grown in the Astrakhan region, Stavropol territory and a number of other southern regions of Russia. (Source: Reuters)

Rising soyameal set to make poultry feed dearer

Prices of poultry feed products are likely to turn dearer towards the end of this week on account of higher input cost. Earlier it was expected that feed prices may turn dearer by Rs 800-1,000 a tonne by the beginning of this week but following continuous uptrend in soyameal and a couple of other ingredients, prices have not been altered yet. According to market experts, prices may increase by Rs 1,500-2,000 for a tonne by the end of this week. In the physical market, soyameal moved further up by Rs 1,300 and sold at Rs 36,900. Bajra dropped marginally by Rs 10 and sold at Rs 1,360-1,400 a quintal while di-calcium phosphate improved by 15 paisa and sold at Rs 33.85 a kg. MBM moved up by 50 paisa and sold at 33.50 while maize moved down by Rs 30 to Rs 1,530. Mustard de-oiled cake increased by Rs 600 and sold at Rs 14,800, DRB went up by Rs 500 to Rs 11,500 while rice bran oil was at Rs 54.50, 50 paisa up from the previous level. (Source: Business Line)

Weak rupee turns Indian pepper competitive

Weakening of the rupee pulled down the Indian parity in the international market to competitive levels. This phenomenon has paved the way for the uptrend in the futures prices on the national exchange. Consuming countries are importing cheap pepper material such as pinhead, husk, spent pepper, dust etc, sources said. Even Vietnam has reportedly contracted to import an estimated 150 tonnes of pin-heads and 50 per of the material has been shipped out. (Source: Business Line)

Global rise in wheat output may impact India export

A significant jump in global wheat crop this season is likely to impact Food Corporation of India (FCI) export of two million tonne of grain, if higher base price is not revised, senior government officials said. Due to a higher wheat output in key exporting countries such as Russia, Australia, Canada and France, the global wheat price is prevailing in the range of $ 260 to $ 270 per tonne. However, India has decided to keep a base price of $300 per tonne for two million tonne (mt) of wheat export which is 'unrealistic' and needs revision, a senior official told FE. Encouraged by the response from the wheat shipment last fiscal, Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs earlier this month had approved 2 mt of wheat exports from FCI stocks. Wheat would be exported through stateowned trading firms such as MMTC, PEC and STC. "Even if we get an average price realisation of $270 per tonne, we need to go ahead with shipment because our realisation will be similar to last year because of fall in the value of rupee against the US dollar in recent months," an official with PEC said. Last year, due to a global shortage, FCI had exported 4.5 mt of wheat and realised R7,000 crore at an average price of about $310 per tonne. (Source: Financial Express)

Brazil mills increase sugar, ethanol output in dry early August

Cane mills in center-south Brazil increased their output of sugar and ethanol in early August from the second half of July, as weather turned mostly drier and favored crushing in the world's main exporter of sugar, local industry association Unica said Tuesday. Brazil's main cane region produced 2.91 million tonnes of sugar in the first half of August, up 15 percent from 2.53 million produced in the second half of last month. (Source: Reuters)

India's rains to delay cotton harvest by 15 days, push up prices

Heavy rains in India's cotton-cultivating areas will delay its harvest by at least 15 days, exacerbating shortages, pushing up local prices and potentially postponing export deals for the new season's crop, traders said on Tuesday. Buoyed by robust demand from China, Japan and Europe, and a more-than-16-percent drop in the rupee, trade commitments for cotton yarn exports rose 48 percent in July from a year earlier, data from the Director General of Foreign Trade showed. Any delay in sealing export deals for the new season crop may support benchmark New York cotton prices, which rose 1 percent on Monday, clawing back ground after they lost nearly 10 percent last week. Harvested cotton in India, the second-largest grower, typically starts arriving on local markets from October. But higher-than-average rains in Gujarat and Maharashtra states in the west and Madhya Pradesh state in the centre have crimped harvesting. During the first half of the fourmonth monsoon, which started June 1, rains were at their heaviest in nearly two decades. (Source: Reuters)

Cash-rich US farmers slow to sell huge corn, soybean crops

Several years of profitable crops have left U.S. farmers with enough cash that they can delay additional sales of corn and soybeans, which could be bad news for food companies, livestock feeders, and exporters hoping for an abundance of low-price grain after this year's harvest. While the U.S. Agriculture Department has forecast huge corn and soybean crops this autumn, these rich farmers have enough on-farm grain storage to hold onto much of their bounty until prices move higher. "The American farmer has never been in a better or stronger financial position ever in the history of farming," said Tom Grisafi, president of agricultural advisory service Trade The Farm LLC. "They have a ton of money and they have more on site storage than ever (Source: Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 29 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures declined for second consecutive session on expectation of supplies to increase at current prices. Adequate stocks to meet the festive season demand capped sharp gains. However, demand ahead of the festive season supported prices at lower levels. Prices have increased over the last few days on increased demand in the spot market. Also, heavy rains in the kharif pulses growing regions have raised fears of damage, further supporting the prices. The spot settled 0.37% lower while the Futures settled 0.16% higher on Wednesday. As per a circular by NCDEX dated August 21 2013, Special Margin of 5% on the Short side imposed earlier has been withdrawn in Chana with effect from beginning of day Friday, August 23, 2013. As per the data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under kharif rd Pulses stood at 99.63 lakh ha as on 23 August 2013, up by 16.8 percent compared to the corresponding period last year. Pulses sowing in Gujarat as on 23 Aug was seen on 4.46 la ha, up by 23.8% compared to the same period last year. Also, sowing of kharif pulses in Rajasthan was seen 21.68 lakh ha, up by 19% compared to the corresponding period last year.
rd

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX Sept'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on Aug 28, 2013 % change Last 3300 3132 Prev day -0.37 0.16 WoW 4.76 1.59 MoM 15.79 16.26
Source: Reuters

YoY -30.34 -32.65

Spread Matrix
Closing 3300 3132 3211 3266 20-Sep-13 -168 0 -

as on Aug 28, 2013 18-Oct-13 -89 79 0 20-Nov-13 -34 134 55 0 as on Aug 27, 2013 Stocks as on 26th Aug 55284 54105 11369 120758 Qty in Process 160 30 0 190

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 27th Aug 50956 53651 11309 115916 Qty in Process 160 30 0 190

309

Demand supply scenario

After producing record 18.45 mn tn Pulses, India is set to produce record crop for second year in row in 2013-14 as sowing during the ongoing kharif season is excellent propelled by good rains. Also, favorable soil moisture level has made ground for bumper Rabi harvest too. In value terms, India imported $2.3 billion of pulses in 2012-13, almost 28% higher over $1.85 billion in the previous year. However, imports may drop in 2013-14 season on expectations of higher output. Kharif Pulses witnessed a marginal decline in the output which was offset by a considerable rise in Rabi output, especially Chana during 2012-13. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. As per the estimates, Chana output was pegged at a record 8.8 mn tn compared with its third advance estimates of 8.49 million tonnes and a previous record of 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11.

111

938

1358

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX September contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana futures are expected to trade on a mixed note with a positive bias today on account of improvement in demand ahead of the upcoming festive season which may support prices. However, adequate stocks coupled with withdrawal of special margins on short side may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Sept Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for Aug 29, 2013 Resistance 3170-3210

3066-3097

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 29 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures witnessed yet another rally and settled at the 4 percent upper limit on Wednesday supported by worries over output amid incessant rains in the largest producing state and a crash in the domestic currency. Apart from the domestic factors, concerns over soybean yield in US due to excess heat in the Midwest also fuelled an upside rally in Soybean. The spot remained closed while the Futures settled 4% higher on Wednesday. In the domestic markets, although area under soybean this season is at record level, concerns over output remain due to excessive rains which have obstructed growth of the crop. As per data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under oilseeds was recorded at 186.6 la ha rd on 23 Aug, 2013, an increase of 15.2 percent as compared to the corresponding period last year. Soybean sowing in Maharashtra is up by 14.9% at 36.31 la ha as on 23 August while, in MP, area under soybean is up 9.4% at 63.51 lakh ha as th on 27 August. International Markets CBOT Soybean witnessed a robust rise on Wednesday and settled 1.34% higher as warm and dry weather in the US Midwest raised fears over yield losses in soybean which is in the pod filling stage. Also, export demand further supported and upside in the prices. The USDA crop progress report downgraded the good-to-excellent rating to 58% from 62% last week. USDA reported that 84% of the crop is setting pods vs. 95% a year ago. Also, 96% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. 99% a year ago. The USDA monthly crop report revised the acreage to 77.2 mn acres from its earlier estimates of 77.7 mn acres. Harvest estimates have also been trimmed to 3.255 bn bsh from the earlier estimates of 3.42 bn bsh. Forecast of 2013-14 ending stocks have also been slashed from 295 mn bsh in July to 220 mn bsh. According to Agroconsult, a local analyst, Brazil new soy crop is seen at a record 88.4 mn tn in 2013/14 as against 81.46 mn tn last year.
rd

Market Highlights

as on Aug 28, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.00 6.51 4.01 1.34 0.00 3.03 11.25 7.50 2.89 4.97

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX Oct '13 Fut Soybean-CBOT Sept'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX Sept'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3826 3699 1433 3676 3610

MoM 17.40 26.16 6.17 2.89 16.19

YoY -16.02 -7.54 -17.29 -19.86 -18.49

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3826 Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 3698.5 3702 3726 0 3.5 0 18-Oct-13 -127.5 20-Nov-13 -124

as on Aug 28, 2013 20-Dec-13 -100 27.5 24 0 as on Aug 28, 2013 18-Oct-13 -31.85 34 0 20-Nov-13 0.15 66 32 0 as on Aug 27 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 as on Aug 27, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 60 NCDEX October contract
Source:Telequote

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 3675.85 3610 3644 3676 20-Sep-13 -65.85 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 27th Aug 10 0 0 10 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 60 Stocks as on 26th Aug 10 0 0 10 Stocks as on 26rd Aug 1776 251 3654 644 46607 1220 1440 55592

Outlook
Concerns over yield losses in the domestic as well as the US may continue to support prices. However, higher sowing and higher output estimates might cap sharp gains.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total Stocks as on 27th Aug 1776 251 3269 644 46325 1180 1440 54885

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed traded on a positive to bullish note yesterday and settled at the 3% initial circuit limit on account of higher oilseed prices coupled with good demand for mustard seed. However, higher output this year has capped sharp gains. Agriculture ministry in its fourth advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.82 mn tn, up by 18.4% compared to 2011-12 season.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed futures are expected to trade on a positive note today on account of higher edible oilseed prices coupled with good mustard demand. However, higher output and sufficient supplies this season may cap sharp gains.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 29, 2013 Support 3630-3680 3500-3550 Resistance 3750-3800 3660-3700

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 29 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil futures traded on a bullish note and hit the 4% upper circuit limit on account of festive demand. Higher soybean prices coupled with a sharp fall in the Rupee led the prices to increase further. Agri Ministrys proposal to increase the import duty on refined oil coupled with fears of soybean crop damage has supported prices at lower levels. However, comfortable supplies have capped sharp upside in the prices. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils declined 6.13% to 889,493 tn in July. Monthly soy oil imports rose 69% as local supplies are almost before the soybean crop enters the markets. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on Aug 1 stood at 610,000 tn, the trade body said, higher than 695,000 tn on July 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 705.40 734.70 44.31 2489 574.50 Prev day 0.00 4.01 0.57 0.93 3.48

as on Aug 28, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTSept'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Sept '13 Fut CPO-MCX- Aug '13 Futures

WoW 1.87 6.19 3.48 4.01 5.70

MoM 8.23 14.28 1.68 10.13 15.97

YoY -11.12 -7.94 -20.49 -16.31 2.57

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 705.4 734.7 712 705.35 20-Sep-13 29.3 0 18-Oct-13 6.6 -22.7 0 -

as on Aug 28, 2013 20-Nov-13 -0.05 -29.35 -6.65 0 as on Aug 28, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil is expected to continue to trade on a positive note today on account of festive demand coupled with a weak Rupee. However, comfortable stock position of imported edible may cap sharp gains.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Aug-13 30-Sep-13 31-Oct-13 Closing 574.5 571.8 565.3 31-Aug-13 0 30-Sep-13 -2.7 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO September Futures traded on a bullish note hitting the upper limit on note on account of festive demand coupled with a weak Rupee and settled 3.68% higher on Wednesday. KLCE palm oil futures also gained 0.93% on account of export demand coupled with higher soybean prices. A weaker Ringgit has further boosted prospects of higher exports. Indonesia has cut export tax on crude palm oil to 9% in September from 10.5% in August. Prices on the KLCE had earlier declined to the lowest level this year and have spurred export demand for most consumed cooking oil. Also, an increase in the output is expected due to seasonally higher yield period, which may cap sharp upside and pressurize prices. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during Aug 1-25 increased 7.1% to 1,162,884 tons tonnes from 1,085,392 tonnes shipped during July 1-20. Malaysia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 4.5% for September, unchanged since March. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased 0.53% in July against June, while end stocks increased 1%. Exports increased due to Ramadan demand. India's refined palm oil imports declined 27.8% in July to 213,853 tn from 296, 230 tn in June as a weak Rupee made imports expensive.

31-Oct-13 -9.2 -6.5 0

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

NCDEX September contract

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX Sept contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
CPO futures are expected to continue to trade higher on account of festive demand coupled with a weak Rupee. However, comfortable supplies may cap sharp gains. Prices may also take cues from the movement of Palm oil on the KLCE.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Sept NCDEX Futures CPO MCX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 29, 2013 Support 722-728 560-565 Resistance 740-745 578-583

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 29 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded on a mixed note and settled marginally lower by 0.06%. Overseas as well as domestic demand has supported the prices. However, higher arrivals and good rains in Gujarat which has increased the moisture levels and set the ground for higher sowing, capped gains and pressurized prices at higher levels. According to IBIS, India exported 9462.64 tn of jeera in June. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam & USA. (Source: Agriwatch) In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1% Jeera of Indian origin Singapore is being offered at $2,100/tn (FOB Mum) while Europe at $2,300/tn (CNF). (Source: Agriwatch)

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13675 13615 5103 5062 Prev day 0.00 -0.06 -0.75 -0.94

as on Aug 28, 2013 % Change WoW 1.45 1.30 1.94 0.24 MoM 0.64 3.07 -8.49 -3.54 YoY -12.29 -7.79 -8.98 -18.70

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Sept Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 13675 13615 13770 13915 20-Sep-13 -60 0 18-Oct-13 95 155 0 -

as on Aug 28, 2013 20-Nov-13 240 300 145 0 as on Aug 28, 2013 20-Sep-13 -40.6 0 18-Oct-13 43.4 84 0 20-Nov-13 139.4 180 96 0 as on Aug 27, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 26th Aug Process 1334 3393 4688 8546 NCDEX Sept contract 57 151 208 0

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 8,000 bags on Tuesday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 5102.6 5062 5146 5242

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera is expected to trade with a positive bias on the back of overseas as well as domestic demand. However, higher supplies and good rains in the jeera sowing regions may cap the upside in the prices. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not shipping.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 27th Aug 1334 3302 4636 8546 Qty in Process 57 148 205 0

Turmeric
Turmeric futures corrected for the second consecutive day on Wednesday on account of profit taking and settled 0.94% lower. Huge carryover stocks as well as good sowing progress have pressurized prices. Prices have gained over the past few days traded on reports of fresh export demand. Festive demand from the domestic markets also supported prices. The regulator has imposed 10% special margin on short side in Turmeric w.e.f 06/08/2013 to curb excess volatility.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode were reported at 3,000 bags and 6,000 bags respectively on Tuesday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is th reported at 0.51 lakh ha as on 28 August, as against 0.53 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.64 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric futures are expected to trade on a mixed note. Huge carryover stocks coupled with favorable climate may pressurize prices at higher levels. However, fresh export as well as festive demand may support prices in the intraday.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Sept contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Sept Futures Turmeric NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for Aug 29, 2013

Support 13400-13500 4950-5000 Resistance 13730-13820 5150-5220
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 29 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures declined for the third consecutive session on Wednesday on account of ample supplies and pressure from the mills. However, prices recovered towards the end on account of short coverings and settled 0.03% higher. Increasing demand ahead of the festive season coupled with an increase in the import duty as well as export demand on the back of a weak Rupee supported prices at lower levels. The Food Minister said that his ministry has moved a cabinet proposal to allow state governments to hike prices of sugar for PDS. Good monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka has led to expectations of recovery in the cane yield, keeping prices under pressure. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation. However, the same didnt reflect in the market as supplies are significantly higher. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in rd 48.53 la ha as on 23 Aug 2013 as compared to 50.06 la ha last year as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeOct'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 3008 `/qtl 477.9 $/tonne 365.33 $/tonne -0.12 -0.31 0.03 Last 3039

as on Aug 28, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.02 -0.69 -0.59 -1.20 0.74 MoM YoY -0.43 -12.74 -0.63 -0.40 -0.18 -14.16 -14.65 -18.33

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 3038.85 3008 3042 3070 20-Sep-13 -30.85 0 18-Oct-13 3.15 34 0 -

as on Aug 28 2013 20-Nov-13 31.15 62 28 0

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 27th Aug 449 5452 0 923 6824 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0 Stocks as on 26 Aug 449 5452 0 923 6824

as on Aug 27, 2013

th

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon has curbed some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX Sept contract

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE as well as ICE Sugar traded on a negative note and settled 0.31% and 0.12% lower on account of higher crushing in Brazil. Prices have increased due to rains and cold weather in Brazil raising fears of frost and crop damage. The ISO has estimated sugar surplus to fall to 4.5 mn tn in 2013/14 as against 10.3 mn tn last year. Brazil's main cane region produced 2.91 mn tn of sugar in the first half of August, up 15% from the 2.53 mn tn produced in the second half of July. Prices, in the long term have declined on account of abundant supplies from Brazil. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 16.749 mn tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1, up 9.3 percent from a year ago. According to Datagro, Centre-South output for 2013/14 is seen at 34.18 mn tn against 34.09 mn tn last year.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar Futures may trade on a mixed note. Festive demand may support prices. However, ample supplies and expectations of a sugar surplus may cap the upside and pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Sept NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for Aug 29, 2013 Support 2980-2995 Resistance 3020-3030

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 29 Aug, 2013
th

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton Futures traded on a positive note and settled 1.11% and 1.27% higher on Wednesday on expectations of delay in harvesting by around 15 days. Also, demand from millers, yarn exports on the back of thin supplies towards the end of the marketing year and a weak Rupee supported prices at lower levels. The government has allowed the Cotton Corporation of India to export more cotton in the current season. Ministry of Agriculture, in its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production wherein it pegged Cotton output at 34 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) in 2012-13, lower than the record 35.2 million bales in the previous year. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the th season (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) till 14 July is reported at 331.15, down 1.48 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1048 23120 84.01 89.95

as on Aug 28, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 1.11 2.59 1.27 3.86 -0.58 0.12 -0.61 -3.85 MoM YoY 2.59 #N/A 18.99 31.66 -1.59 12.33 -3.75
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton Aug Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

4.71

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 23120 21930 21760 31-Oct-13 0 -

as on Aug 28, 2013 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 -1190 0 -1360 -170 0

Sowing Progress
As per the ministry of agriculture, cotton sowing was reported at 111.34 rd la ha on 23 Aug 2013 as against 111.53 la ha last year. In Gujarat, cotton was sown on 26.62 la ha as on 16 August 2013 as against 22.42 la ha during the same period last year. In Rajasthan, it was th done on 3 la ha as on 27 August 2013 as against 4.53 la ha last year. In th AP, cotton sowing was undertaken on 19.9 la ha as on 28 August 2013 as against 21.17 la ha last year.
th

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 mn bales last year to 23.5 mn bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 201213 at 35.2 mn bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 mn bales in 2011-12.
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Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton futures continued to decline and settled 0.58% lower on Wednesday on subdued mill demand. Also worries about interference in the Syrian conflict may hurt the global economy pressurized prices. The USDA monthly report lowered US cotton output forecast to 13.05 million bales, the lowest in four years. The USDA weekly crop progress report rated good/excellent condition at 47% against 46% last week and reduced the poor/very poor at 20% against 23% last week. ICAC has increased projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Cotton prices may trade on a positive note on account of demand from millers as well as yarn exporters and a weak Rupee. However, weak international markets coupled with higher sowing may cap sharp upside.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX Oct Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for Aug 29, 2013 Support 1029-1036 22600-22850 Resistance 1062-1078 23350-23500

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Commodities Daily Report

`
Thursday| 29 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar complex, which saw a significant slump in the prices since the relaunch of the contract in May 2013, have shown some signs of recovery in the last two weeks. Excessive rains (above 45% of the LPA in the week ended 23 August) may have an adverse impact on the yield. Supplies have declined in the last 2-3 weeks as farmers are not liquidating their stocks at lower levels. All these factors along with weakness in the Indian rupee supported an upside movement in the guar complex. Guar seed as well as guar gum prices settled at 4% upper limit for third consecutive session on Wednesday. Huge stocks, higher acreage and expected higher production in the new season beginning October 2013 have exerted downside pressure on the guar prices since past 2-3 months. According to sources, carry forward stocks are higher and despite of this farmers have increased acreage in Rajasthan amid favorable monsoon this season.
rd

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut `/qtl 5000 `/qtl 16417 `/qtl 13780 `/qtl 4.00 2.78 4.17 Last Prev day 6100 2.44

as on Aug 28, 2013 % change WoW 14.49 13.90 11.00 13.04 MoM 13.89 9.41 8.65 6.99 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 6100 5200 5140 5120 18-Oct-13 -900 0 20-Nov-13 -960 -60 0 -

as on Aug 28, 2013 20-Dec-13 -980 -80 -20 0 as on Aug 28, 2013 20-Nov-13 -2386.9 -310 0 20-Dec-13 -2326.9 -250 60 0 as on Aug 27, 2013 Stocks as on 26th Aug 50 52 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Monsoon and Sowing

North- west India, the largest guar growing belt has received 28 percent rd above average rains since the beginning of the monsoon season till 23 August. During the last week, the rains were 45 percent above the long period average. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 22 July, 2013 stood at 34.3 lakh hectares compared with 26.58 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year. Guarseed area increased significantly last year. With favorable monsoon and with attractive returns, acreage remained higher this season too.
nd

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 16416.9 14340 14030 14090 18-Oct-13 -2076.9 0 -

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Sriganganagar Stocks as on 27th Aug 50 52 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. However, Fuelled by demand in China and the US, guar gum export from India in April-May rose nearly 12 per cent but realisation fell 57 per cent due to lower prices. (Source: Business standard)

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Overall sentiments have turned positive for guar complex. But with weakness in the Indian rupee in the opening session today, we may see some correction the guar prices. Prices may recover in the later part of the session on expectations that the prolonged excessive rains if continue, may hamper the guar crop yield. Also farmers are also holding back their stocks expecting better realization in the coming days.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 29, 2013 Support 4850-4930 4900-4980 14100-14250 13080-13250 Resistance 5400-5500 5400-5500 14650-14880 13723-13950

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