Currency Weekly Update USDINR 66.72 +4.27% EURINR 88.26 +3.24% GBPINR 103.48 +3.

77%

02

nd

Sep 2013
+5.14%

JPYINR 67.95

Weekly Review India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a slower than expected rate of 4.4% for the first quarter of the current financial year. The economy grew at the slowest quarterly rate since the global financial crisis. The growth was contracted by a contraction in mining and manufacturing. The agricultural sector of the economy grew at 2.7% versus 1.7% QoQ. Manufacturing sector growth contracted at (-) 1.2%. While the trade and hotels growth cue in at 3.9% versus 6.2% QoQ, the construction sector grew at 2.8% versus 4.4% QoQ. Electricity & gas sector grew at 3.7% versus 2.8% QoQ. Mining sector growth contracted at ()2.8% versus (-)3.1 QoQ. The Indian economy has been steadily losing momentum in recent years. Economic growth virtually halved in two years to 5 percent in the fiscal year that ended in March -- the lowest level in a decade. The industrial sector contracted in the first quarter, the 1.1% fall in the index of industrial production showed. The decline in the purchasing managers' index for services in the first quarter indicates a widening of the slowdown to services sector that expanded 6.5% last year. Weekly Movement Weekly Support & Resistance Currency USDINR FUTURE EURINR FUTURE GBPINR FUTURE JPYINR FUTURE Currency USDINR EURINR JPYINR GBPINR S1 65.00 86.70 100.90 65.58 S2 63.80 84.42 98.35 63.85 PCP 66.72 88 .26 103.48 67.95 R1 69.20 91.15 105.80 70.10 R2 71.65 93.25 108.32 72.78
Weekly Chart -USDINR

Recommendation Buy at 65.00 s/l below 63.80 Tgt 68.00/69.20. Buy at 86.70 s/l below 84.42 Tgt 88.50/89.80. No Trade Recommended No Trade Recommended Weekly Technical View The week gone by saw the USD/INR pair continuing to surge higher. The rise seen this week was the highest seen in recent times as the pair touched new life highs. Technical indicators are reflecting the positive price action as the pair trades above the 13- day SMA and momentum readings like the 14 -day RSI are climbing higher. We recommend using any weakness to enter into longs.
Weekly Chart-EURINR

KEY RBI RATES (%) Bank Rate Repo Reverse Repo CRR SLR Equity Indices Nifty Sensex Shanghai Nikkei HangSeng FTSE CAC DAX DJIA NASDAQ Level

8.75 7.50 6.50 4.00 23 Change Change (%) 0.01 0.54 1.99 -1.99 -0.60 -1.22 -3.33 -3.73 -1.33 -1.86

Domestic

5471.80 0.70 18619.72 100.28 Asian 2098.38 40.92 13388.86 -271.69 21731.37 -132.14 European 6,412.93 -79.17 3,933.78 -135.69 8,103.15 -313.84 US 14,810.31 -200.20 3,589.87 -67.92

Weekly Technical View The week gone by saw the EUR/INR pair continuing to surge higher. The rise seen this week was the highest seen in recent times as the pair touched new life highs. The pair has also broken above the upper band of the 20-day Bollinger Bands, which is another bullish signal for the pair. We recommend using any weakness to enter into longs.

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