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This case study is to help with the assessment of 90504 prepare a report that analyses and interprets a companys financial report for external users. For version 3 of 90504 the standard allows teachers to assess students against a case study or an annual report. The questions (and suggested answers) provided in this pumpkin patch limited resource form the basis of a case study, and can be used as one. Our NZQA moderator, who put together this case study for us, has suggested some techniques that you could use with students to help them engage with the wider aspects of the firm. They have also provided some suggested methods to help the students use the financial ratios effectively to make a decision about seeking employment with the firm or purchasing shares. You could: Brainstorm as a class using the headings (and the annual report) outlined in questions 1-7 of the non-financial section. Try and encourage students to ask: what does this mean for our specified end- user (shareholder/employee)? Teachers may choose to focus on the end user. Potential lenders may also be a topic of choice, if the focus is expanding into a new market. Conduct group or individual research to provide a story about the firm (based on questions 1-7 of the non-financial section), prior to reviewing the relevant data. Have students share their findings with the class. Groups could do a subsection each to create a depository of findings. Students should use the answers found to engage with the firm, and use specific trends and examples as the basis for their individual reports, as per the financial analysis (p.p.12-21). Please note: Teachers can provide students with relevant rations, as the standard doe s not require students to calculate these. The rations chosen by the author reflects the effects on the finances of decisions made by the firm given the NZ retail and global business environment (and the firms past). Much of the latter commentaries regarding the financial analysis is carried on from earlier sections. Students should use the relevant notes to reinforce their opinion for the end- users decision.
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Pumpkin Patch Ltd. Analysis and interpretation of the 2011 Annual Report
PLANNING TEMPLATE 1: NARRATIVE QUESTIONS Q1 What are the core business area(s) and geographic locations that Pumpkin Patch Ltd operates in?
Pumpkin Patch Ltd is retail brand that was founded in 1990 and wholesales and retails childrens clothing through its own stores in NZ, Australia, and UK and US (until mid-way through 2011) The clothing range it designs is known for high quality and encompass es clothes that are resilient to childrens activities. It is known for having a good fashion brand image, and competes with other childrens designer brands such as Witchery Kids, Levis Kids, flo, Motion, EllieB, fresh, Papoose, Le Bon, Elfwear, Osh Kosh (which is sold through Farmers, Smith & Caugheys etc.). In 2010 the launch of the brand, Charlie and Me, occurred and was seen as an opportunity for Pumpkin Patch Limited (PPL) to use its brand image to enter the everyday market (that includes, in New Zealand, t&t, Cotton On for Kids, JK Kids gear, The Baby Factory, Kmart and the Warehouse) that encompasses 75% of the global chi ldrenswear sales. (Chairmans letter p.8, 2010) In the 2011 year, Charlie & Me had 11 stores open across Australasia and a dedicated onli ne trading website was created for this brand. Since balance day 2011, Pumpkin Patch has launched a new brand called Pumpkin Patch General, which is a part of PPL that sells non-clothing items for babies, nurseries and school aged children (and is signalled by the Chairpersons letter where she states We are currently assessing a number of initiatives to leverage our existing online and supply chain capabilities. We hope to launch some of these in the coming year. ) (Chairmans letter p.9, 2011). Pumpkin Patch General is an online shop, currently. The target market for the brand has, historically, been middle-income parents and grandparents earners, and the growth of PPL since being listed has been based on the consistent growth of the economies in which it has operated throughout the 2000s. The company has historically performed well in all the markets it operated in except for the USA and the UK where the brand has been a consistent money loser for PPL shareholders. Simply put, 2011 has been a main departure from these foci. The past three years have been challenging as global market conditions, the capital intensive structure and restructures have had their impacts. There are 5 main revenue centres (p.11, 2011 Annual Report): Retail markets: Australia (51% - down 1% from 2010); New Zealand (15% - unchanged from 2010) UK (14% - unchanged from 2010) US (5% to be closed in 2012 year) Wholesale/Direct(website) (14% - up 1% from 2010)
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Q2. What is Pumpkin Patch Ltd current strategy(s) and key point of difference in the target market? What is the current and future market potential for Pumpkin Patch Ltd? What influence has the global economic crisis appeared to have had on Pumpkin Patch Ltd in 2011? What specific areas?
The organisations strategy at the end of 2010, was to manage its assets and liabilities carefully, through balance sheet management (p.08, 2010) and grow its brand in its 22 markets, in the midst of soft economic conditions. It aimed to do this in a number of phases. Throughout the 2011 year the firm faced a number of significant challenges that has led to it underperforming, and requiring a reassessment. These challenges include: volatile trading conditions in all markets natural disasters political unrest in the Middle East a high NZD exchange rate low inventory levels at the start of the which generated a poor 6 week trading period in August and September 2010 higher product costs driven mostly by cotton price increases new store opening costs From the annual report (and moving forward): 1. PPL announced that it is closing the 20 retail stores in the United States and are reviewing underperforming stores in the United Kingdom. The brand will continue to be sold in the United States through Wholesale and the growing online operation. The danger is that any gains in sales will be offset by the high NZD. 2. PPL reviewed its Head Office operation to ensure it better matched the new store network as it felt it was more appropriate given the challenging nature of global markets. Consequently, PPL recognised this $15.6m of non-recurring reorganisation costs (see note 4D, 2011 annual report, p. 63) 3. The growth of stores of 20 new stores in 2012 in Australia and NZ are near the 2010 target (22). Three quarters of these were Charlie & Me. The three Urban Angel stores (kids aged 8+) in NZ were re-branded as Charlie & Me. 4. PPL opened 3 new stores in 2012 in Ireland, and also, over that period, it analysed the underperforming stores in the United Kingdom. In the 2011 financial year recognised the losses regarding store assets and agreed that the number of leases of stores in the UK was onerous, especially as the austerity measures in the UK continue. With fourteen stores whose leases expire or have exit clauses falling in the 2012 financial year, stores were flagged for closure. Two outlet stores were closed between July 2011 and November 2011. In Jan 2012, the decision was made to close the UK. 5. In 2012 there is anticipated continued growth of the Pumpkin Patch and Charlie & Me online businesses. The websites are amongst the most visited childrens product related websites in Australasia. Subscribers to the online newsletter receive a number of newsletters per week to give subscriber specials. 6. To leverage off this and its existing online capability PPL has generated the General brand. 7. The brand has been broadened in the past twelve months to integrate a wider target market online, general, Charlie & Me (and consolidate the original brand).
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8. The brand itself in the Australasian markets remains very strong. From its investor relations website it states: Pumpkin Patch intends to continue increasing its sales and ea rnings by using strategies similar to those that it has successfully used during the past ten years. Pumpkin Patch's strategy is based around selling leading edge kids' fashion through a range of channels including its own retail stores, selected departme nt stores, wholesale distribution arrangements, the internet and via mail order catalogues. Through these avenues, Pumpkin Patch sees its key growth coming from the following: Continued development of its markets particularly in Australia. Continued expansion of overseas third party retailing through department stores in Australia, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, South Africa and Asia Continued expansion of online revenues through its websites in New Zealand, Australia, The United Kingdom, Ireland and The United States. Source: http://www.pumpkinpatch.biz/ourcompany_ourfuture.html
Q3
PWC Cost of Capital Report March 2011: The cost of capital report by PWC shows that the returns expected by investors (debt and equity) in PPL (and the cost of finance for the company. The higher the cost, the greater the expected risk to investors. PPL has the highest WACC for the retail sector in the NZ market. NZ Retail Sector Listings Briscoe Group Limited Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited Kirkcaldie & Stains Limited Michael Hill International Limited Postie Plus Group Limited Pumpkin Patch Limited Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited Smiths City Group Limited The Colonial Motor Company Limited The Warehouse Group Limited Turners Auctions Limited Wakefield Health Limited Source: PWC Cost of capital report from pwc.co.nz/ NZX Code BGR HLG KRK MHI PPG PPL RBL SCY CMO WHS TUA WFD PWC WACC as at 31 March 2011 11.0% 9.8% 6.8% 10.5% 7.8% 11.5% 7.1% 9.5% 6.5% 6.7% 8.2% 8.4%
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The possible external factors that also affect PPLs ability to grow their market potential : 1. The high rates of unemployment in its key markets: a. 6%+ in NZ; 9.5+% in the US; 7+%+ UK; and 4.5%+ Australia since early 2010 (The Australian unemployment figures can be recognised as artificially low, as the east coast Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane has a higher unemployment rate than the booming mining industry towns and states which are not the target market for PPL). Overall, this has meant that disposable income has been spent on essential items rather than luxuries 2. In NZ increased GST 3. Increased costs of living (petrol), food, etc that has moved middle income earners away from premium brands towards functional. 4. The increased borrowing costs on the global market. 5. The increased exchange rate in NZ, which means that export earnings are counter -balanced by a high $NZ value. 6. The effects of the first Christchurch Earthquake in 2010 , the Japanese Tsunami, the Arab conflicts. 7. The continued downturn in Europe and the US in the post-GFC period Please note that these comments are solely the opinion of the author, and in no way represent the views held by NZICA. Additionally these comments do not constitute financial advice.
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Milford Asset Management (20/6/2011): (Source: http://milfordkiwisaver.co.nz/blog/pumpkin-patch-back-on-home-soil/) Pumpkin Patch back on home soil Last week Pumpkin Patch updated earnings guidance as we ll as announcing that it was going to close the US operations and address the underperforming United Kingdom business. The earnings guidance was downgraded to $12m- $14m (from $16m $18m previously), the downgrade was attributed to the continuing challenging and volatile conditions intensified by rising input costs. While most retailers have been finding it difficult at present, it has been especially treacherous for Australasian childrens apparel retailers of late as the competition heats up with inter national brands venturing down under and depressed consumers staying away from shops. By closing the US operations Pumpkin Patch has decided that the bulk of its future opportunities are closer to home. Even though there are opportunities for Pumpkin Pat ch to further expand its footprint in Australia this will be difficult with the increasing level of competition. Pumpkin Patch needs to re -establish a niche position for itself and its brand lest it follow the path of The Warehouse, which capitulated in Australia only to focus on NZ and then lose market share to the evermore agile and energetic specialist retailers. We believe that for a company to continue to succeed in both international and domestic markets it needs to have strong management with interes ts firmly aligned to the shareholders in addition to a solid strategic plan implemented by an independent board. The first cut is always the deepest and we admire people who are able to admit they were wrong and move forward looking for the next opportunity. Hopefully, Pumpkin Patch is able to get back on track and reclaim their position as Australasias premier childrens apparel retailer.
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It is also forecasting reduced costs because of improved procurement processes, lower cotton prices and higher average import foreign exchange rates This is a rather cautious outlook but domestic listed retailers continue to attract investor interest because several companies, particularly Briscoe, Hallenstein Glasson and Michael Hill, are performing well in an extremely difficult and competitive environme nt. Listed retailers Operating in a tough environment Company Briscoe Hallenstein Glasson Kathmandu Michael Hill Postie Plus Pumpkin Patch The Warehouse *$million (Source: http://milfordkiwisaver.co.nz/blog/retail-success-at-home-attracting-investors/) Period Ended Sales* YOY change 29 Jan 1 Feb 31 Jan 31 Dec 29 Jan 31 Jan 29 Jan 243.9 +6.4% 108.6 +7.9% 146.7 +15.4% 288.8 +7.3% 53.9 (4.6%) 161.1 +17.4% 937.9 +3.3% Net Profit* 17.2 9.0 6.0 26.3 (0.8) 7.2 46.7 YOY change +16.1% +26.5% (43.1%) +11.5% (16.7%) (11.9%)
Caveat: The global uncertainty that has plagued firms since August 2008 has continued, and the continued lack of predictability remains. There continue to be very few CEOs of listed NZ firms (that have significant export market expenses) that have been able to predict a specific amount of growth .
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Q4
New Zealand Central Securities Depository Limited Nigel P Smith and Wynyard Wood Trustee Services Limited JBWERE (NZ) Nominees Limited (45230 a/c) JBWERE (NZ) Nominees Limited (31098 a/c) Maurice J Prendergast, Kerry D Prendergast and Stuart G Callender Mark J Synnott, Sally R Synnott and The Gale Trustee Company Limited Gregory J Muir, Debra J Muir and Geoffrey A Lawrie FNZ Custodians Limited Bruce M Walkley, Deborah F Walkley, Nigel P Smith Pumpkin Patch Nominees Limited Christine Conyngham Investment Custodial Services Limited Custodial Services Limited (3 a/c) Joanna Hickman, John A Callaghan, Kevin J Hickman and John W Ryder Brendon Thomas, Katrina Thomas, and John Turrall NZPT Custodians (Grosvenor) Limited Adrastea Limited Kay Gillard
In 2011, there had not been a significant change to the major shareholders. However the Board had some significant shifts in the post Balance Day dates. Pumpkin Patch Ltd. has announced that Chrissy Conyngham [Group General Manager at the time of publishing of the annual report] has informed the Board of Directors that she has decided not to seek re-election at the Annual Shareholders Meeting on 22 November 2011 and that she wishes to focus solely on her executive role with the business. Chrissy Conyngham commented We are currently working on a number of ex citing new opportunities across our international markets and I believe it is best that I am 100% focused on my executive role helping the business make the most of those opportunities. While I have enjoyed contributing at Board level the commitment of bei ng a director has been considerable. The time is right for me to focus my efforts towards the design and branding areas of the business which are key to our long term success. This decision will give me more time to work
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with Neil and the wider executive team developing and executing strategies that will take us into the future. ( Source: http://www.findata.co.nz/Markets/NZX/51855/Director_announcement.htm )
The most significant shift from 2010 to 2011 was the purchase of shares by NZPT Custodians (Grosvenor) Limited, which is a company that has a significant stake in a number of NZ firms, such as NZ Steel and Tube. PPL may have represented a bargain. However, in the l atter part of 2011, the share price went from $1.15 to $0.58c. The 2 most significant shift in the share portfolio was that Pumpkin Patch Nominees Limited was issued 150,000 shares and has grown its stake by 65%. This is the companys employee share scheme. Maurice Prendergast and Sally Synnott are Directors and shareholders of Pumpkin Patch Nominees Limited which acts as Trustee for various employee share ownership plans. (p.35, 2011)
nd
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Q5: Remuneration trends from 2009 to 2011 for the highest earners:
$ 100 - 110 110 - 120 120 - 130 130 - 140 140 - 150 150 - 160 160 - 170 170 - 180 180 - 190 190 - 200 200 - 210 210 - 220 230 - 240 240 - 250 250 - 260 260 - 270 280 - 290 290 - 300 300 - 310 310 - 320 320 - 330 330 - 340 340- 350 360 - 370 380 390 400 - 410 440 - 450 450 - 460 490 - 500 2011 12 11 6 5 2 8 3 2 1 2 2 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 2010 10 7 7 8 3 4 1 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2009 10 2 7 11 8 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 4 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2008 12 9 7 7 2 3 4 1 2 4
1 1
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67
1 1 61
62
58
AS at the end of the financial year, there had been a growth in the number of people earning $100K+. But given the results in the financial sections (below), there has been a major shift in wages policy. At the 2011 AGM for Shareholders announced that PPL had shaved $130,000 or 35% off directors fees as its board warns hard times are continuing at the children's wear retailer . The Chairperson, Jane Freeman, has decreased her fee to $85,000 (from $128K) Additionally, PPL decreased its fees to the other 4 (non -executive) directors to $50k each. The move follows a decision to freeze salaries at the Pumpkin Patch head office this year and cut 55 jobs at across the company. Some hard decisions were made in 2011 and we believe some more hard decisions will need to be made in 2012, Ms Freeman said. (Italics from NBR at: http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pumpkin-patch-cuts-directors-fees-warnshard-times-ahead-gb-104852)
Q6 What are the strengths of the management team at Pumpkin Patch Ltd and how will these potentially benefit the company in the coming periods?
There have to be some questions asked about the strength of the management team in the company over the last few years that culminated in an entry into the United States in 2005 to test the market. PPL continued to roll out US stores even though the existing stores were not succeeding. In 2009 the company made a decision to abandon 20 US stores that were incurring heavy losses and kept 15 that they saw as promising. In 2009/10 the company even opened an additional 5 stores in that market. From the website, it states that Pumpkin Patch's strong management team has the expertise and capabilities to ensure that the complex apparel, design, manufacture and retail business that is Pumpkin Patch will continue to grow. The Pumpkin Patch Board of Directors has extensive retail, apparel and corporate experience which complements the skills of the management team. (Source: http://www.pumpkinpatch.biz/ourcompany_ourpeople.html) Managements exposure to global retail environments (especially the US and UK) is unclear here, and questionable especially in a downturn of the magnitude the retail industry has suffered over the past three years (in the high-end brand) may be the reason for the lack of awareness shown in the face of the 2008-11 periods. Store based retailing has been suffering globally over the last 4 years, especially in the United States. Management should (potentially) have seen that after three years of attempting to infiltrate the US market, in 2009 it should have closed all operations. It has taken more than 2 years to decide to close the entire operation. This has led to another bout of discontinuing operations expenditure and losses. The costs have been significant. Moving forward, the replacement and the resignation of key directors including CEO Maurice Prendergast may turn around the result of failed expansion plans which have cost investors hundreds of millions in lost share value and close to $50 million off the book value.
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The January 2012 announcement about the closure of UK retail stores has further dented the expansion undertaken over the past six years. The focus seems to be clearly focused on NZ, Australia and wholesaling to US direct and department stores (like the high end brands trade in NZ) and cyberspace. Please note that these are solely the opinion of the author, and in no way represent the views held by NZICA. Additionally these comments do not constitute management advice.
Q7
1. Up to the financial year ended 31 July 2011, the opportunity to earn well in the Head office is well publicised. However, the only people who lost their jobs in the last financial year (2011) were at head office in Auckland, direct store management (a growth sector) and workers in the United States. 2. Pumpkin Patch Nominees Limited (as per Q. 4 above) acts as a Trustee for the Companys employee share purchase plans. The Company advances the Trustee an interest free loan to enable it to purchase the shares issued to it for the plans. At regular intervals the Trustee offers shares to those permanent employees of the Company with in excess of six months continuous service. The shares are offered at a discount to market price. Employees purchasing shares are provided financial assistance on an interest free basis, repayable in regular instalments. Dividends paid on allocated shares during the qualifying period are paid to employees. 3. From PPL website; Pumpkin Patch states that family life and strong family values are integral to the wellbeing of the people and therefore our Company. Family-friendly work policies encourage flexibility, adaptability and balance. People are rewarded for loyalty and long service, and families with young children are supported with in -house crche facilities or childcare subsidies. Pumpkin Patch employs approximately 2,800 people. Approximately 66% of Pumpkin Patch's staff work part time. When hiring staff Pumpkin Patch endeavours to identify people who share its vision and who are passionate about kids wear and committed to meeting, and exceeding, customers' expectations of excellent service. One of Pumpkin Patch's core philosophies is integrity - within the Pumpkin Patch team, with suppliers, and towards customers. This integrity is intended to create a platform of trust and commi tment, and a foundation for all of Pumpkin Patch's business relationships. Pumpkin Patch recognises that employee retention and succession planning are vital to a successful organisation. As such the Company has always ensured that key employees with long service have been rewarded with equity interests in the Company and the Company has established a number of employee share schemes which have allowed employees to share in our success.
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The team at Pumpkin Patch has demonstrated its ability to grow th e business over successive years. The design team has a consistent history of producing exceptional ranges that are at the forefront of children's fashion. (Source: http://www.pumpkinpatch.biz/ourcompany_ourpeople.html)
PUMPKIN PATCH LTD FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION Please note that these figures have been generated from a number of sources, and have been kindly reproduced here. There may be other ratios not referred to that would also be an acceptable method to use in analysing the information. Therefore, be sure to state any assumptions. PROFITABILITY (INCLUDING DISCONTINUED)
31/07/2011 Gross Margin Net Margin Return on Assets Return on Equity GP/Sales NPAT/Sales EBIT/Total Assets NPAT/Equity 62.8% - 0.05% -0.9% -5.8% 31/07/2010 61.4% 6.68% 14.3% 31.5% 31/07/2009 57.5% 4.50% 9.9% 20.9%
Note that all discussions are based on Net (loss)/profit after tax and before other Comprehensive Income.
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EFFICIENCY
31/07/2011* Inventory Turnover (times) Fixed Asset Turnover (times) Accounts Receivable Turnover (times) Accounts Receivable (days) COS/Inventory Net Sales/Fixed Assets (PPE) Sales/Acc Rec 365/Acc Rec. Turnover 4.01 3.94 18.6 x 19.63 days 31/07/2010 5.35 5.21 18.43 x 19.80 days 31/07/2009 5.14 5.75 21.08 x 17.31 days
*Including discontinued stores Note that Accounts Receivable Turnover (tim es) calculation ignores non-current Accounts Receivable.
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The Current Liabilities is a mix of positive and negative, as t he overdraft organised in 2010 has been reduced by $5M to $20 Million (from $25M). The bulk of the $19.5 Million increase in CL (and consequent decrease in the ratios above) is due to the value of the forward foreign exchange contracts due to expire in the upcoming year. Exporting companies like PPL cannot ignore the impact of cu rrency, changes on cash flows, profitability, and their asset and liability position. No company is immune the cash received from exporting is affected by the relationship between the currency used by the customer to pay and the currency in which the cost of providing the product or service is denominated. A forward contract allows PPL to arrange for delivery (or sale) of a specific amount of currency on a specified future date, at the current market price. The past two decades has seen a significant incr ease in the types and complexity of financial instruments offered in the market place. Users of financial statements need detailed information on financial assets, liabilities and equity instruments in order to better understand the risk profile of the entity. Because the effects are as material (significant) as they are to the PPLs balance sheet, they need to be reported. Because Forward FOREX contracts fix the exchange rate over different periods to try and reduce the volatility of exchange rate fluctuations, PPL has these liabilities over the current & non-current period. From the CEO report , post-balance- date there was significant exchange rate volatility which led to an improvement in the after tax value of those derivatives and a corresponding incr ease in total shareholders funds of around $21m (based on exchange rates in early October.) Post Balance Date, measurements reduce the liability by $21M. The reason for recognising the liability on Balance Day is that IAS requires that the contract is priced at fair value on the date the contract is entered into and remeasured to fair value (on Balance Date).
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Free Cash Flow (FCF) Cash Debt Coverage Cash Return on Sales
Net Cash from Operating Capital Expenditures Net Cash from Operating Average Total Liabilities Net Cash from Operating Net Sales
-$15,846
$8,775
$48,551
-0.03
0.21
0.61
Net cash flow from operating activities Net cash flow from investing activities Net cash flow from financing activities Net cash flow for period Net bank debt at period end Cashflow gearing ratio Total Bank Debt : EBITDA
4.54 times
0.81 times
0.75 times
* Including discontinued store provisions ** Excluding discontinued stores *** Includes Cash Borrowings of $38,000,00 in 2011 **** Note that the FCF calculations are based on PPE only
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STABILITY
31/07/2011* Interest Cover (times) Debt to Equity Debt to Assets Long term debt: Equity EBIT/Interest Total Liabilities/Equity Total Liabilities/Total Assets 6.51 532% 0.84 2.45 31/07/2010 16.02 120.8% 0.55 0.29 31/07/2009 5.66 112.2% 0.53 0.46
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INVESTMENT RETURN
31/07/2011 31/07/2010 31/07/2009
Basic EPS (cents/share)* Price Earnings ratio NPAT/no. of shares Market Price**/EPS Dividend paid p.s./EPS -1.12 -9.5 - 0.09 0.58 5.90 15.3 12.03 1.10 -14.4
Dividend ratio
* Negative EPS numbers are usually reported as "not applicable" for periods in which a company reported a loss. Investors buying a company with a negative P/E should be aware that they are buying a share of a company that has been losing money per share. Note that the EPS is based on N PAT before other comprehensive income and using the year end number of shares. ** Market Price As at 31/7/2011
Investment return summary and conclusions These figures seem to reflect the comments by the market analysts.
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