Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts by Consensus Economics Inc.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE CONSENSUS FORECASTS
E-mail Edition: Consensus Economics Inc. All rights reserved. Under our agreement this publication may not be reproduced (complete or partial), redistributed, stored in a public retrieval system or broadcast to persons other than the email subscriber without the prior written permission of Consensus Economics Inc. Survey Date December 10, 2012 Every month, Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts surveys more than 250 financial and economic forecasters for their currency exchange rate projections. The results covering over 90 currencies together with reference data and analysis of factors such as inflation, interest rates, balance of payments, government policies and politics are rushed to subscribers by express mail and e-mail. Contents
Page
Currency Risk Assessments A Special Survey

In order to gauge the risks of more significant swings in exchange rates than the consensus is currently predicting, we asked our panellists to assign probabilities to a range of possible outcomes. The results, some of which show asymmetries of risk, are set out on pages 34 and 35.
Overview .......................................... 1 Currencies in the Spotlight this Month

United States .......................................... 3 Euro zone ............................................... 4 Japan ...................................................... 6 Canada ................................................... 8 Thailand ................................................ 10 Hungary ................................................ 12 Chile ..................................................... 14
Overview
Political events continue to take centre stage in the US, Europe and Japan and their uncertainties have led to shifts in the US dollar (page 3), the euro (page 4) and the Japanese yen (page 6). The outcome of upcoming debt negotiations, elections and policies on austerity, inflation and reforms will have a significant impact on high-yielding assets in 2013, as happened in 2012. Indeed, if the year to date represented an accurate guide for full year performance, the Argentinean peso (page 16) and the Brazilian real (page 17) were particularly sensitive to financial volatility and reoccurring spikes in risk aversion. Each lost just over 10% of its value, as the global slowdown hurt exports and saw their economies pressured by anaemic growth. Yet, despite having faced similar difficulties, the Mexican peso (page 21) rose 9.3% over the same period, as it benefited from an upturn in investor confidence. Inflation in the economy is under control, its banking sector is seen as relatively well capitalised and elections in July produced a more pro-busi(continued on page 2)
Major Currencies
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada . 16-17 Chile, China, Colombia .......................... 18 Czech Republic, Denmark, Hong Kong. 19 Hungary, India, Indonesia ..................... 20 Israel, Malaysia, Mexico ....................... 21 New Zealand, Norway, Peru .................. 22 Philippines, Poland, Romania ................ 23 Russia, Singapore, South Africa ........... 24 South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland ....... 25 Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey ...................... 26 Ukraine, United Kingdom, Venezuela .... 27
Additional Currencies Page Albania, Algeria, Angola, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Botswana, Bulgaria, Costa Rica, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, ............................................................................. 28 Egypt, El Salvador, Georgia, Ghana, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Iceland, Iran, Ivory Coast, Jamaica, Jordan, Kazakhstan, ........................................................................................................ 29 Kenya, Kuwait, Laos, Latvia, Lebanon, Libya, Lithuania, Malawi, Morocco, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, .................................................................................................................. 30 Paraguay, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Tanzania, Tunisia, UAE, Uganda, Uruguay, Vietnam, Yemen, Zambia .................................................................................................................... 31 Long-Term Forecasts ....................................................................................................................... Cross Rates ....................................................................................................................................... Currency Risk Assessments A Special Survey .......................................................................... Graph of Currency Forecasts ..........................................................................................................
32 33 34 36
Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts (ISSN: 1351-0983) is published by Consensus Economics Inc., 53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United Kingdom Publisher: Philip M. Hubbard Tel: (44) 20 7491 3211 Fax: (44) 20 7409 2331
Editor: Che-Wing Pang Assistant Editor: David M. Baker Web: www.consensuseconomics.com
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, either in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, photocopying, digitization or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. The Editor and Consensus Economics Inc., do not guarantee or take any responsibility for the information set forth herein, including the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the forecasts or written analysis.
OVERVIEW
(continued from front page)
DECEMBER 2012
ity of the government to finalise a deal for financial aid from the IMF (partly due to its controversial bank tax plan) has led to relatively wide swings since. In Asia, regional competitive issues will remain a key theme in 2013, as countries jostle for exports to a slowing group of Western economies. The Singapore dollar (page 24) and the South Korean won (page 25) have both risen by almost 7.0% in the year to date, compared with only 1.1% for the Chinese renminbi (page 18) and a decline of 5.6% for the Japanese yen (page 6), following its recent sharp correction. In the spotlight this month we also feature the Canadian dollar (page 8) and the Thai baht (page 10).
ness government, which has underpinned the outlook for reforms. The Chilean peso (featured in this months spotlight on page 14) is another currency in Latin America that has achieved a near double-digit advance. It, too, is not immune to swings in investor sentiment, although it has been well supported by internal demand and a resilient economy, which expanded 5.7% (y-o-y) in Q3. Furthermore, unlike some of the other countries in the region, its policymakers had refrained from FX intervention to undermine the currency for much of the year. Ironically, the Hungarian forint (page 12) has exceeded expectations as well, despite its weak economic performance and fragile fundamentals. Yet its advance came mainly in the first seven months of 2012 and the inabil-
Summary: Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts

Currency units per US$ or Euro, except the UK, A$ and Euro which are the reciprocals.
Forecast % change
See Page
Since End Dec. 2011
Spot Rate Dec. 10 2012
Consensus Forecasts End Jan. End Mar. End Dec. 2013 2013 2013
% change to End Dec. 2013
Exchange rates vs. US$

Australian Dollar (US$/A$) Brazilian Real Canadian Dollar Chinese Renminbi Euro (US$/) Indian Rupee Japanese Yen Mexican Peso Russian Rouble South Korean Won Turkish Lira UK Pound (US$/UK) 17 17 8 18 4 20 6 21 24 25 26 27
3.4 -10.6 3.4 1.1 -0.1 -2.3 -5.6 9.3 4.8 6.7 5.8 4.0
1.050 2.080 0.987 6.235 1.293 54.52 82.34 12.79 30.73 1079 1.790 1.608
1.034 2.078 0.988 6.254 1.286 53.71 81.33 12.79 31.20 1084 1.793 1.597
1.023 2.077 0.989 6.249 1.276 53.51 81.79 12.78 30.95 1080 1.794 1.588
1.000 2.057 0.985 6.158 1.258 52.71 83.49 12.58 31.28 1050 1.801 1.578
-4.7 1.1 0.2 1.2 -2.7 3.4 -1.4 1.7 -1.8 2.8 -0.6 -1.8
Exchange rates vs. Euro

Czech Koruna Hungarian Forint Norwegian Krone Polish Zloty Swedish Krona Swiss Franc 19 12 22 23 25 25
2.1 10.0 5.6 7.6 2.9 0.9
25.27 283.2 7.339 4.108 8.659 1.207
25.36 284.5 7.329 4.140 8.542 1.207
25.50 285.5 7.322 4.153 8.546 1.212
25.07 284.3 7.235 4.066 8.400 1.223
0.8 -0.4 1.4 1.0 3.1 -1.3
NOTES AND ABBREVIATIONS

ECB GDP M/S&P PPP q-o-q European Central Bank Gross Domestic Product Moody's and Standard & Poor's sovereign debt ratings Purchasing Power Parity, see top of page 4 quarter-on-quarter e IMF na m-o-m y-o-y -
DECEMBER 2012
consensus estimate International Monetary Fund not available month-on-month year-on-year
GDP is expressed in real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) terms. GDP and consumer prices are expressed as average percentage changes over the previous year unless otherwise indicated. Measures of trade, current account and foreign exchange reserves (which exclude gold) are expresed as nominal amounts in US dollars (billion). Interpolated rates on pages 5-27 are calculated as period average or end period forecasts based on simple straight-line interpolations from consensus forecasts. All individual foreign exchange forecasts on pages 5-15 are listed in descending order of their 1 year percent change estimates. Consensus forecasts are averages of the named forecasters shown plus Other Forecasters.
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012
DECEMBER 2012
The US$ is the principal benchmark currency against which the values of other
currencies (except most Europeans) are measured throughout this publication. (For cross rates and forecasts against the yen and euro see page 33.) The only exchange-traded index of the US dollar's value is the NYBOT (composition below), which was originated by the Federal Reserve in the early 1970s. Futures based on its cash index (DXY) are traded on the New York Cotton Exchange. From the direction of trade statistics (below right) it will be noted that Canada has a greater weight in US trade than in the NYBOT index, while Mexico is not represented; the principal European countries have a greater weight in the index than in US trade.
UNITED STATES DOLLAR

Fiscal Cliff in Focus
The US dollar continues to move under a shadow of fiscal policy uncertainty, amid a deadlock in negotiations between the White House and Congress to avert a crisis before December 31. Each side is aware of the profound implications an impasse for the dynamics of the American economy in 2013. And investor sentiment could deteriorate quickly in the event of a stalemate, as happened during the debt ceiling fiasco in Q3 2011. Yet the Democrats and the Republicans will have difficulty reaching compromise from entrenched positions. Most observers expect the US Federal Reserve to announce additional monetary stimulus on December 12, in order to keep Treasury rates anchored and to protect the recovery from potential fiscal issues. Uncertainties caused by ongoing political paralysis have caused our panel to lower its GDP forecast for next year to below 2.0%, from 2.2% in 2012. The mediumterm debt outlook for US, though, may not be as dire as some commentators fear. Shale gas production should begin to scale up, bringing with it comparative advantages for US industry and potential reductions in the trade and current account deficits.
DIRECTION OF TRADE
EXPORTS TO: Canada Mexico China Japan United Kingdom Other TOTAL: IMPORTS FROM: China Canada Mexico Japan Germany Other TOTAL: 2011 US$bn 280.8 197.5 103.9 66.2 56.0 776.4 1480.7 417.4 320.7 265.4 132.4 100.4 1028.7 2265.0 % of Total 19.0 13.3 7.0 4.5 3.8 52.4 100.0 18.4 14.2 11.7 5.8 4.4 45.4 100.0 Consensus Forecasts
US$ INDEX: Monthly

(Based on the NYBOT index weights below)
INDEX WEIGHTINGS Euro 57.6% Japanese yen 13.6% British pound 11.9% Canadian dollar 9.1% Swedish krona 4.2% Swiss franc 3.6% Actual ----- Consensus ----Dec. 10 End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 US$ Index* 80.37 81.07 * 82.07 *
130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0
* Calculated from actual and weighted consensus currency forecasts from latest survey.
70.0 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12
US$ INDEX: Daily High, Low, Closing

85.0 84.0 83.0 82.0 81.0 80.0 79.0 78.0 Jul 2 12 Aug 9 12 Sep 18 12 Oct 26 12 Dec 5 12
(Based on the NYBOT index weights above)
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts Nominal GDP (2011): US$15094bn GDP per Capita: US$48,208 Population (mid-2011): 313.1mn
2008 Real GDP, % -0.3 Consumer Prices, % 3.8 Current Account, US$bn -677.1 Short Term Interest Rates1 0.1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 46.6
1
Consensus Forecasts
2012 2.2 2.1 -476.8 0.1 na 2013 1.9 2.0 -454.6 0.1 na
2009 -3.1 -0.3 -381.9 0.1 50.5
2010 2.4 1.6 -442.0 0.2 52.1
2011 1.8 3.1 -465.9 0.0 51.9
3 mth treasury bills (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
US Interest Rates
(Treasury bill and bond forecasts also on page 4)
Long Term Rates 10 Yr Treasury Bonds
% of GDP
3.0 1.0 -1.0 -3.0
FX Reserves (% of GDP)
US: Risk Indicators
8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0
0.0 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12
Short-Term Rates - 3m Treasury Bills
-5.0 -7.0 -9.0 -11.0
Budget Balance (% of GDP)
Fed Funds Forecasts (Latest = 0 to 0.25%)
End Dec. End Mar. End Jun. End Sep. 2012 2013 2013 2013
Debt Ratings
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Consensus (mean average) 0.140%
Mode (most frequent fcast) 0.125%
0.141% 0.125%
0.141% 0.125%
0.142% 0.125%
(M/S&P): Aaa/AA+
'92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
EURO
US$ per Euro: Actual and Purchasing Power Parity Estimates
1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 J an 92 J an 94 J an 96 U S$/Eu ro ( s y nthetic eur o pr ior to J an. '99) PPP Est im at e
DECEMBER 2012
Swings in Euro Sentiment
As has been the case for much of the year, mid-to-late November support for the euro lacked conviction. Efforts to contain the debt crisis remain fragile and were undermined by a lack of economic strength. Greece secured the next tranche of its rescue package from the EU and IMF late last month, drawing a line under immediate fears of a currency union exit. In addition, euro zone finance ministers approved an aid deal for Spanish banks, taking the heat off Madrid to request a full-blown bailout. Yet both these countries are heavily in recession (bottom box) and any sense of jubilation at their recent successes has been curtailed by news of a possible storm in Rome. Mario Monti became leader of a technocrat Italian government in 2011, tasked with fixing the public finances and restoring growth. However, he announced his intention to stand down last week, after being unable to win cross party support for broad reforms. Doubts about the commitment of the next administration to deficit reduction are reflected in a renewed rise in Italian bond yields. The European Central Bank kept rates at 0.75% in early December, but has hinted at more monetary easing in the New Year in response to the spread of economic and political uncertainty. In an environment in which the peripheral euro zone members are stuck in fiscal straitjackets and the outlook for growth is dim, the euro will continue to be vulnerable to periodic bouts of volatility. Recent Economic Outturns (y-o-y)
GDP
USA Euro zone Germany
Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 Q3
Average Producer Price Inflation Euro zone (2002-2011) = 2.39% US (2002-2011) = 2.82%
J an 98 J an 00 J an 02 J an 04 J an 06 J an 08 J an 10 J an 12
The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory asserts that, over the long-term, the trend of an exchange rate is determined by cumulative differences in the national inflation rates of the two countries concerned. We have estimated a long-term PPP trend by relating the average real exchange rate (1992-2011) to indices of producer price inflation in the US and the euro zone over the same period. Figures for the euro prior to January 1999 are 'synthetic' i.e. they have been calculated using a basket of the eleven original member currencies. The PPP line represents an approximation of the euro's long-run value, and a currency may be considered over- or under-valued if it is more than 10% above or below the PPP estimate. Our latest PPP estimate is US$1.25 per euro. European Currency Union: The euro replaced individual currencies of the eleven original members in January 1999. Greece adopted the euro at the start of 2001, followed by Slovenia in 2007, Cyprus and Malta in 2008 and Slovakia in 2009. Estonia joined in January 2011. The fixed exchange rates of euro member countries are shown on the right. Central Bank: The European Central Bank (ECB) is responsible for monetary policy, which is set by a committee drawn from EMU-members' central banks. Policy is carried out by a six-member executive board, currently headed by the Italian ECB president Mr. Mario Draghi (appointed in November 2011).
(Continued on page 5)
%
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4
Long Term Rate Differential* * Euro rates are synthetic prior to Jan. '99. 3mth Euribor and German 10-year bond yields thereafter.
Fixed Conversions per Euro Austrian schilling 13.7603 Belgian/Lux. franc 40.3399 Cypriot pound 0.58527 Deutschemark 1.95583 Estonian Kroon 15.6466 Finnish markka 5.94573 French franc 6.55957 Greek drachma 340.750 Irish punt 0.78756 Italian lira 1936.27 Maltese lira 0.42930 Netherlands guilder 2.20371 Portuguese escudo 200.482 Slovakian koruna 30.1260 Slovenian tolar 239.640 Spanish peseta 166.386
Euro zone Less US Interest Rate Differentials

Euro and US$ Interest Rates Actual ---- Consensus ----Dec. 10 End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013
Euro: 3-mth(Libor) Euro: 10-yr (German) US$: 3-mth(T-bill) US$: 10-yr
0.2% 1.3% 0.1% 1.6%
0.2% 1.5% 0.1% 1.8%
0.3% 1.8% 0.1% 2.3%
Short Term Rate Differential*
2.0% 2.4% 0.6% -0.1% 1.9% 1.2%

Q4 2011 Q1 2012
2.1% -0.5% 1.0%

Q2
2.5% -0.6% 0.9%

Q3
CPI
USA Euro zone Germany
Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12
3.3% 2.9% 2.3%
2.8% 2.7% 2.2%
1.9% 2.5% 1.9%
1.7% 2.5% 1.9%
GDP Growth
Average % change
Consumer Price Inflation

Consensus Forecasts 2012 2013 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.1 -2.2 -0.9 0.5 0.7 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 -6.5 -4.5 0.2 1.0 -0.9 -0.2 -3.1 -2.3 -1.4 -1.6
Average % change
2008 Germany 1.1 France -0.2 Italy -1.2 1.4 Austria 1.0 Belgium 0.3 Finland 3.1 Greece -2.1 Ireland Netherlands 1.8 0.0 Portugal 0.9 Spain
Euro zone* 0.3
2009 -5.1 -3.1 -5.5 -3.8 -2.7 -8.5 1.4 -5.5 -3.7 -2.9 -3.7 -4.3
2010 4.2 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 3.3 -2.8 -0.8 1.6 1.4 -0.3 1.9
2011 3.0 1.7 0.6 2.7 1.8 2.7 -6.1 1.4 1.1 -1.7 0.4 1.5
2008 2.6 2.8 3.3 3.2 4.5 4.1 4.2 4.1 2.5 2.6 4.1 3.3
2009 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.5 -0.1 0.0 1.2 -4.5 1.2 -0.8 -0.3 0.3
2010 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.2 1.2 4.7 -1.0 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.6
2011 2.3 2.1 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.3 2.6 2.3 3.6 3.2 2.7
Consensus Forecasts 2012 2013 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.6 3.1 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.8 2.0 3.0 2.5 1.2 0.1 1.8 1.2 2.5 2.3 2.8 1.4 2.5 2.3
Background Data (2011)

GDP Population GDP per
(US$bn) (mn) Capita ($)
3,569 2,774 2,197 417 513 266 299 218 840 238 1,492 13,097
82.2 63.1 60.8 8.4 10.8 5.4 11.4 4.5 16.7 10.7 46.5 332.0
43,434 43,936 36,147 49,620 47,712 49,498 26,251 48,013 50,394 22,236 32,110 39,448
-0.5
-0.1
2.5
1.9
* Forecasts from latest Consensus Forecasts G-7 & Western Europe euro zone survey.
DECEMBER 2012
SURVEY DATE SPOT RATE (Dec. 10, 2012) FORECASTS: US$ PER EURO
EURO
THE CONSENSUS
On the second Monday of every month we ask our panel to forecast spot rates for the US$ against the euro over a range of time horizons. The Consensus is the mean of all the forecasts received, including Other Forecasters polled whose names do not appear. FECF then calculates the annual percent change and the discount (-) or premium (+) of the consensus forecast to the survey date spot rate. The quarter average and end quarter figures shown below are based on a simple straight line interpolation of consensus forecasts.
Interpolated Rates US$ per Euro Quarter Average 1.292 2012 Q4 1.284 2013 Q1 1.273 Q2 1.267 Q3 1.261 Q4 1.257 2014 Q1 1.257 Q2 1.256 Q3 1.255 Q4
1 Euro = US$ 1.293

Goldman Sachs HSBC JP Morgan General Motors IHS Global Insight Allianz BNP Paribas Oxford Economics Credit Suisse Commerzbank Royal Bank of Canada Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi Citigroup ING Financial Markets Morgan Stanley UBS Societe Generale Royal Bank of Scotland ABN Amro Other Forecasters (75) CONSENSUS (Mean) Dec. Discount/Premium on Spot Nov. Discount/Premium on Spot Oct Discount/Premium on Spot Dec. High Dec. Low Dec. Standard Deviation
US$ per Euro
1.34 1.32 1.30 1.28 1.26 1.24 1.22 1.20 Jul 2 12
End Jan. End Mar. End Dec. % change End Dec. from spot 2014 2013 2013 2013
1.278 1.357 1.280 1.274 1.313 1.250 1.270 1.280 1.265 1.297 1.307 1.300 1.240 1.250 1.314 1.300 1.270 1.260 1.270 1.287 1.286 -0.5 1.3 -1.4 1.360 1.191 0.031 1.250 1.370 1.280 1.290 1.320 1.230 1.263 1.280 1.246 1.290 1.280 1.280 1.230 1.200 1.340 1.250 1.270 1.230 1.250 1.278 1.276 -1.3 0.4 -2.2 1.370 1.140 0.040 1.400 1.400 1.340 1.281 1.260 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.249 1.230 1.220 1.200 1.200 1.200 1.200 1.200 1.190 1.180 1.150 1.261 1.258 -2.7 -1.5 -4.5 1.400 1.084 0.065 8.3 8.3 3.6 -0.9 -2.6 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3 -3.4 -4.9 -5.6 -7.2 -7.2 -7.2 -7.2 -7.2 -8.0 -8.7 -11.1 -2.4 -2.7 1.400 na na 1.325 1.270 1.300 1.250 1.186 1.236 na na na na 1.270 na 1.150 1.190 na na 1.255 1.255 -2.9 -1.5 -3.6 1.440 1.041 0.076
End Quarter 1.290 1.276 1.270 1.264 1.258 1.257 1.256 1.256 1.255
US$ per Euro: Daily High, Low, Closing
%
-0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20
Yen per Euro

108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 J ul 2 12
Yen/Euro Cross Rate
Yen/Euro forecasts on page 33.
A ug 9 12
S ep 18 12 O c t 26 12
D ec 5 12
Currency Linkages: Independent float. The ECB aims to keep inflation below but close to 2% over the medium term. Trading and Hedging Markets: The euro is the second largest forex market currency after the US$. US$/ futures and options on futures are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Country Risk Indicators
Sovereign Public Debt Debt Ratings
(% of GDP) (Moodys/S&P)
US$ Less Euro 3 Month Interest Rate Futures Differential, March 2012 contracts (right scale - inverted)
Aug 9 12 Sep 18 12 Oct 26 12 Dec 5 12
0.25 0.30
Current Account Balances

US$bn
Consensus Forecasts
(% of GDP)
Current Account
Budget Balance
(% of GDP)
2008 Germany 225.0 France -49.4 Italy -65.8 Austria 20.2 Belgium -6.7 Finland 7.1 Greece -51.0 Ireland -14.9 Netherlands 37.3 -31.8 Portugal -153.3 Spain
Euro zone* -206.9
2009 195.3 -34.9 -41.9 10.4 -6.7 4.2 -35.9 -5.2 41.2 -25.6 -70.2 -18.4
2010 199.6 -40.0 -72.4 12.9 9.0 3.6 -29.8 2.4 59.8 -22.8 -62.8 4.1
2011 204.6 -54.1 -67.3 2.4 -7.3 -4.2 -28.7 2.5 81.5 -15.4 -52.1 17.3
2012 212.9 -52.6 -29.5 5.1 -3.0 -3.5 -13.6 4.6 63.7 -5.8 -25.5 93.3
2013 206.8 -45.1 -16.3 7.0 -0.6 -3.0 -9.5 5.1 57.9 -3.2 2.6 126.2
2012 5.9 -1.9 -1.3 1.2 -0.6 -1.3 -4.5 1.9 7.6 -2.5 -1.7 0.7
2013 5.6 -1.6 -0.7 1.6 -0.1 -1.1 -3.3 2.1 6.8 -1.4 0.2 1.0
2012 -0.2 -4.2 -2.5 -3.5 -6.8 -3.1
2013 -0.3 -3.2 -1.9 -2.9 -4.8 -2.5
2011 81.2 85.8 120.1 72.2 98.0 48.6 165.3 108.2 65.2 107.8 68.5 87.2
Aaa/AAA Aa1/AA+ Baa2/BBB+ Aaa/AA+ Aa3/AA Aaa/AAA C/SD Ba1/BBB+ Aaa/AAA Ba3/BB Baa3/BBBna
* Excludes intra euro zone member transactions, ECB defintion.
JAPANESE YEN
YEN per US$: Actual and Purchasing Power Parity Estimates
75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Yen/US$
Average Producer Price Inflation Japan (2002-2011) = 0.35% US (2002-2011) = 2.82%
DECEMBER 2012
Yen Selloff
The yen lost 3.4% of its value between end-October and our December survey, as political uncertainty and concerns about the independence of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) took hold. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda had to call snap elections (December 16) in return for parliamentary approval of a crucial deficit financing bill. And the leader of the main opposition party who is likely to succeed him has polarised opinion with his views on foreign and monetary policies. In a controversial campaign, he has adopted a tough stance towards a territorial dispute with China. In addition, his pledge for unlimited easing to end deflation is seen as extreme and unrealistic. Pressure on the BoJ to raise its target for inflation to above 1% and slash rates to zero (or below it, as in the case of Switzerland) is also not conducive to independence. Its current governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, is viewed as an inflationhawk who has resisted political demands for stimulus measures that might be counterproductive in the long-term. Yet he is due to retire in April 2013 and may be replaced by someone more closely aligned with the demands of the next administration. Add a stagnant economy to the mix (recent weak GDP outturns in third box, left) and it is unsurprising that the yen has tumbled to a six month low. It is too early to tell whether political rhetoric will actually translate into policy action, given the vested interests of a divided government. However, FX sentiment has clearly deteriorated, with reports of an increase in short positions on the currency. In all, the consensus is predicting that the yen will depreciate 1.4% over the next 3-12 months.
DIRECTION OF TRADE
EXPORTS TO: China USA South Korea Hong Kong Thailand Other TOTAL: IMPORTS FROM: China USA Australia Saudi Arabia UAE Other TOTAL: 2011 US$bn 149.6 127.8 66.0 42.9 37.5 400.7 824.5 % of Total 18.1 15.5 8.0 5.2 4.5 48.6 100.0
PPP Estimate
The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory of exchange rates asserts that, over the long term, the trend of an exchange rate is determined by cumulative differences in the inflation rates of the two countries concerned. In the above chart we have estimated a long term PPP trend by relating the real average exchange rate (1992-2011) to indices of producer price inflation in the US and Japan over the same period. The PPP line above represents an approximation of the yen's long run value, and a currency may be considered over- or under-valued if it is more than 10% above or below the PPP estimate. On December 10, the Japanese yen was 3.1% above its recently estimated PPP of 79.8 per US$. JAPANESE Less US Interest Rate Differentials
% 3 Mth Actual
2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5
Long-Term Rate Differential
(Dec. 10)
10 Yr Actual
(Dec. 10)
Japan US
0.3% 0.1% (T-bill)
0.7% 1.6%
Short-Term Rate Differential
Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12
%
5.0 3.0 1.0 -1.0
JAPAN: GDP Growth and Inflation (year-on-year)
CPI Inflation -3.0 Real GDP Growth -5.0 -7.0
Recent GDP Outturns

Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 Q3
y-o-y q-o-q
0.0% 0.1%
3.3% 1.4%
4.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.9%
Consensus Forecasts
'92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
% of GDP 30
JAPAN: Risk Indicators (% of GDP)

Consensus Forecasts
25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15
FX Reserves
(% of GDP)
Current Account Balance

(% of GDP)
Budget Balance
(% of GDP)
183.8 76.0 56.5 50.5 42.9 444.2 854.0
21.5 8.9 6.6 5.9 5.0 52.0 100.0
'92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
DECEMBER 2012
SURVEY DATE SPOT RATE (Dec. 10, 2012): FORECASTS: YEN PER US$
JAPANESE YEN
THE CONSENSUS
On the second Monday of every month we ask our panel to forecast spot rates for the yen against the US$ over a range of time horizons. The Consensus is the mean of all the forecasts received, including Other Forecasters polled whose names do not appear. FECF then calculates the annual percent change and the discount (-) or premium (+) of the consensus forecast to the survey date spot rate. The quarter and annual average figures shown below are based on a simple straight line interpolation of consensus forecasts.
Interpolated Rates Yen per US$ Quarter Average 2012 Q4 80.74 2013 Q1 81.60 Q2 82.07 Q3 82.64 Q4 83.21 2014 Q1 83.74 Q2 84.23 Q3 84.73 Q4 85.22
US$1 = 82.34
Royal Bank of Canada HSBC BNP Paribas IHS Global Insight JP Morgan Credit Suisse Goldman Sachs Citigroup General Motors Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi ING Financial Markets UBS Societe Generale ABN Amro Allianz Morgan Stanley Oxford Economics Commerzbank Royal Bank of Scotland Other Forecasters (75) CONSENSUS (Mean) Dec. Discount/Premium on Spot Nov. Discount/Premium on Spot Oct. Discount/Premium on Spot Dec. High Dec. Low Dec. Standard Deviation
76.33 77.34 78.00 78.25 79.00 83.41 81.59 84.00 82.00 81.50 82.00 80.00 82.00 81.00 83.00 82.72 82.70 84.00 85.00 81.36 81.33 1.2 0.0 -0.7 76.33 85.00 2.0 75.00 76.00 76.67 78.38 79.00 83.98 80.00 84.00 82.90 82.50 82.00 85.00 82.00 82.00 84.00 84.00 82.70 84.00 88.00 81.83 81.79 0.7 -0.8 -1.4 75.00 88.00 2.7 70.00 74.00 75.00 77.75 79.00 79.87 80.00 84.12 84.35 85.00 85.00 85.00 87.00 88.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 92.00 92.00 83.53 83.49 -1.4 -3.0 -4.2 70.00 93.00 5.0 17.6 11.3 9.8 5.9 4.2 3.1 2.9 -2.1 -2.4 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 -5.4 -6.4 -8.5 -8.5 -8.5 -10.5 -10.5 -1.4 -1.4 na na 85.00 75.01 na 80.25 80.00 na 88.29 na 90.00 90.00 90.00 na 90.00 na 94.84 na na 85.33 85.47 -3.7 -6.1 -6.8 72.00 100.0 6.2
End Quarter 82.00 81.79 82.36 82.93 83.49 83.99 84.48 84.97 85.47
JAPANESE YEN per US$: Daily High, Low, Closing

Yen per US$
77.0 78.0 79.0 80.0 81.0 82.0 83.0 84.0 Jul 2 12
Yen per Euro

94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 Jul 2 12
Yen/Euro Cross Rate
Yen/Euro forecasts on page 33.
Aug 9 12
Sep 18 12
Oct 26 12
Dec 5 12
Aug 9 12
Sep 18 12
Oct 26 12
Dec 5 12
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts Nominal GDP (2011): US$5,869.4bn (468.4tn) Population (mid-2011): 126.5mn GDP per Capita: US$46,398 Real GDP, % Consumer Prices, % Current Account, US$bn Yen/US$, annual average Short Term Interest Rates1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn
1
2008 -1.1 1.4 161.2 103.4 0.7 1004
2009 -5.5 -1.3 146.8 93.6 0.5 997.0
2010 4.7 -0.7 203.8 87.8 0.3 1036
2011 -0.5 -0.3 119.7 79.81 0.3 1221
Consensus Forecasts 2012 2013 1.8 0.6 0.0 -0.2 62.6 65.8 79.67 82.38 0.3 0.3 na na
1
3 mth yen TIBOR (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
Currency Unit: The currency is the yen (), which is divided into 100 sen. Central Bank: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is responsible for setting monetary policy. Mr. Masaaki Shirakawa was appointed as Governor for a five year term in April 2008. Currency Linkages: The yen is an independent floating currency, although the BoJ will intervene in consultation with the Ministry of Finance in periods of disorderly market conditions or rapid FX change. Trading Markets: The yen is the third largest forex market currency after the US$ and the euro, with unrestricted trading in spot and forward markets. Hedging Markets: /US$ and /euro futures and options on futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. /US$ and /euro options are offered by international commercial banks. Government: The Democratic Party of Japan (DJP) scored a landslide victory in the endAugust 2009 parliamentary elections, winning 308 out of the 480 seats. Yoshihiko Noda replaced Naoto Kan as prime minister in late August 2011. The DJP remains the largest political party but lost its majority in the upper house in July 2010. Next parliamentary elections on December 16, 2012. Debt ratings: Moodys Aa3 Standard & Poors: AA Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012
CANADIAN DOLLAR
C$ per US$: Actual and Purchasing Power Parity Estimates
0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 J an 92 J an 94 J an 96 J an 98 J an 00 J an 02 J an 04 J an 06 J an 08 J an 10 J an 12 C$/US$ PPP Estim ate
DECEMBER 2012
External Headwinds
The C$ moved to a six-week high of 0.99/US$ on December 10, having traded in a tight range close to parity for much of November. Real GDP growth almost stalled in Q3, registering a 0.1% (q-o-q) increase, with September's reading (measured by industry) coming in flat after a 0.1% contraction in August. The sluggish Q3 figure came on the back of a decline in merchandise exports and a 0.6% drop in business investment, its first fall since Q2 2009. Household consumption, though, held up well and rose 0.9%. In the current quarter, the manufacturing PMI dropped from 51.4 in October to 50.4 in November, suggesting another soft performance. Quarterly estimates from our sister publication, (Consensus Forecasts G-7 & Western Europe) indicate that Q3 represented a trough in the business cycle and that output would begin to pick up by the middle of next year. However, growth will depend to an extent on events south of the border (page 3), as more than 70% of exports are destined to the US. The Bank of Canada held rates at 1.0% on December 4, even though inflation was only 1.2% (y-o-y) in each of the past three months. A reluctance to ease monetary policy is partly due to concerns about household debt and asset bubbles. A small but positive rate differential with respect to the US, coupled with a top tier sovereign rating and relatively high commodity prices, is supportive of capital inflows. Yet, despite expected weakness in the US$, the consensus is predicting that the C$ will appreciate only 0.2% over the next twelve months.
DIRECTION OF TRADE
Long Term Rates
Average Producer Price Inflation Canada (2002-11) = 1.41% US (2002-11) = 2.82%
The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory asserts that, over the long-term, the trend of an exchange rate is determined by cumulative differences in the national inflation rates of the two countries concerned. In the above chart we have estimated a long term PPP trend by relating the average exchange rate (1992-2011) to indices of producer price inflation in the two countries over the same period. The PPP line represents an approximation of the Canadian dollar's correct long-run valuation, and a currency may be considered over- or under-valued if it is more than 10% above or below the PPP estimate. On December 10, the Canadian dollar was OVERVALUED by 11%, compared with its recently estimated PPP of C$1.1 per US$.
2005 = 100
240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 J an 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 J an 98 Jan 00 J an 02 Jan 04 J an 06 J an 08 Jan 10 J an 12 'The Econom ist' US$ Com m odity Price Index (left sc ale) C$/US$ (right s c ale)
Commodity Prices and the C$
C$/US$
0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
%
6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0
CANADIAN Less US Interest Rate Differentials

3 Mth Actual 10 Yr Actual
Short Term Rates
(Dec. 10) (Dec. 10)
Canada: 1.0% US: 0.1% (T-bill)
1.7% 1.6%
-3.0 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12
(US$bn)
60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80
CANADA: Current Account and FX Reserves

FX Reserves
EXPORTS TO: USA United Kingdom China Japan Mexico Netherlands Other TOTAL: IMPORTS FROM: USA China Mexico Japan Germany United Kingdom Other TOTAL:
2011 US$bn 333.6 19.0 17.0 10.8 5.5 4.9 61.8 452.4
% of Total 73.7 4.2 3.7 2.4 1.2 1.1 13.7 100.0
Consensus Forecasts
Current Account Balance
223.3 48.6 24.8 14.3 12.9 10.5 117.5 451.9
49.5 10.8 5.5 2.9 2.9 2.3 26.1 100.0
'92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
DECEMBER 2012
SURVEY DATE SPOT RATE (Dec. 10, 2012)
CANADIAN DOLLAR
FORECAST: C$ PER US$ End Jan. End Mar. End Dec. % change End Dec. from spot 2013 2013 2013 2014
0.960 0.987 0.980 0.963 0.980 0.970 0.990 0.990 0.985 0.973 1.000 0.987 0.991 1.010 0.986 0.970 1.001 1.015 1.000 0.989 0.988 -0.1 1.7 -0.3 0.950 1.020 0.019 0.950 0.980 0.980 0.950 0.980 0.980 0.990 0.990 0.975 0.980 1.000 0.993 0.990 1.020 0.960 1.000 1.001 1.024 1.010 0.990 0.989 -0.2 1.4 -0.6 0.950 1.040 0.022 0.920 0.940 0.950 0.950 0.960 0.960 0.960 0.967 0.970 0.970 0.980 0.990 0.991 1.000 1.000 1.030 1.033 1.036 1.050 0.987 0.985 0.2 1.5 -1.1 0.920 1.060 0.032 7.3 5.0 3.9 3.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.8 0.7 -0.3 -0.4 -1.3 -1.3 -4.2 -4.5 -4.7 -6.0 0.0 0.2 1.050 na na na na na 0.980 0.967 na na na 1.029 1.046 0.980 na 1.050 1.064 1.069 1.050 1.002 1.008 -2.1 -1.6 -3.8 0.940 1.069 0.041
THE CONSENSUS
On the second Monday of every month we ask our panel to forecast spot rates for the C$ against the US$ over a range of time horizons. The Consensus is the mean of all the forecasts received, including Other Forecasters polled whose names do not appear. FECF then calculates the annual percent change and the discount (-) or premium (+) of this month's consensus forecast to the survey date spot rate. The interpolated quarter and annual average figures shown below are based on a simple straight line interpolation of consensus forecasts.
Interpolated Rates C$ per US$ Quarter End Average Quarter 0.991 0.988 2012 Q4 0.988 0.989 2013 Q1 0.989 0.988 Q2 0.987 0.987 Q3 0.986 0.985 Q4 0.988 0.991 2014 Q1 0.994 0.997 Q2 0.999 1.002 Q3 1.005 1.008 Q4
US$1 = C$ 0.987
BNP Paribas Royal Bank of Canada ABN Amro HSBC JP Morgan Royal Bank of Scotland Societe Generale Goldman Sachs Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi Commerzbank Citigroup General Motors Credit Suisse ING Financial Markets Morgan Stanley UBS Oxford Economics IHS Global Insight Allianz Other Forecasters (54) CONSENSUS (Mean) Dec. Discount/Premium on Spot Nov. Discount/Premium on Spot Oct. Discount/Premium on Spot Dec. High Dec. Low Dec. Standard Deviation
C$ per US$: Daily High, Low, Closing

C$ per US$
Yen per C$
84 82 80
Yen/C$ Cross Rate

Yen/C$ forecasts on page 33.
0.96
0.98
78 76 Jul 2 12
Aug 9 12
Sep 18 12
Oct 26 12
Dec 5 12
1.00
1.02
1.04 Jul 2 12
Aug 9 12
Sep 18 12
Oct 26 12
Dec 5 12
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts Nominal GDP (2011): US$1,739bn GDP per Capita: US$50,552 Population (mid-2011) : 34.4mn 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 1.1 -2.8 3.2 2.6 2.4 0.3 1.8 2.9 Consumer Prices, % 1.8 -40.6 -58.4 -52.8 Current Account, US$bn 1.067 1.143 1.030 0.990 C$/US$, annual average 0.9 0.2 1.0 0.8 Short Term Interest Rates1 41.5 42.6 44.9 52.8 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn
1
Consensus Forecasts 2012 2013 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.8 -68.0 -60.0 0.999 0.988 1.0 1.2 na na
1
3 mth treasury bill rate (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
Currency Unit: The currency is the Canadian dollar (C$), which is subdivided into 100 cents. Central Bank: The Bank of Canada acts as the lender of last resort and manages the public debt. Mr. Mark Carney is set to stand down as governor on June 1, 2013, to head the Bank of England. The term of office is seven years. Currency Linkages: The Canadian dollar is independently floating. The USA is Canadas biggest trading partner and hence the relationship with the US dollar is particularly important. Trading and Hedging Markets: There are no restrictions on the buying/selling of foreign exchange. Futures and options are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Philadelphia Stock Exchange. Government: The Prime Minister, Mr. Stephen Harper, was re-elected on May 2, 2011 after the government collapsed in a vote of no confidence. The Conservative Party holds 164 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons. Next elections by May 2016. Debt Ratings: Moodys: Aaa Standard & Poors: AAA Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012
10
THAI BAHT
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02
Average Producer Price Inflation Thailand (2002-11) = 5.60% US (2002-11) = 2.82%
DECEMBER 2012
Stable Currency Outlook
Despite recent anti-government protests in Bangkok, which were eerily reminiscent of events two years ago, the baht held onto its advances against both the US dollar and the Japanese yen. Support came from a favourable outlook for foreign investment, including solid growth prospects and stable trends in inflation, which fell to 2.7% (y-o-y) in November, from 4.2% a year earlier. True, the expansion in the Thai economy eased to 3.0% (y-o-y) in Q3, from 4.4% in Q2, negatively affected by a slowdown in exports and global financial turbulence. (Headwinds from abroad were underlined as a key risk to the recovery as the Bank of Thailand slashed interest rates to 2.75% in mid-October.) Yet the November demonstrations in the capital proved short-lived and have not had a significant effect on economic output. In addition, in a scenario in which downside risks in the US and Europe do not materialise, panellists believe that monetary policy will be tightened more quickly in Thailand than most other Asian countries. Domestic demand, investment in particular, has been buoyed by government reconstruction efforts and repairs to manufacturing supply chains, while a recent up-tick in sentiment in China should add support to the external sector. Growth in Q4 should be in double digits in year-on-year terms due to a low base of comparison caused by extensive flooding in parts of the country in late 2011. In addition, the consensus is predicting that it will average 4.4% next year, lower than that of China but double that of the US and higher than the Asia regional average.
DIRECTION OF TRADE 2011 US$bn 27.1 23.8 21.7 16.3 12.3 125.2 226.4 % of Total 12.0 10.5 9.6 7.2 5.4 55.3 100.0
THAI BAHT per US$: Actual and Purchasing Power Parity Estimates
Baht/US$ PPP Estimate
Jan 04
Jan 06
Jan 08
Jan 10
Jan 12
The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory asserts that, over the long term, the trend of an exchange rate is determined by cumulative differences in the inflation rates of the two countries concerned. In the above chart we have estimated a long term PPP trend by relating the average exchange rate (1992-2011) to indices of producer price inflation in the two countries over the same period. The PPP line above represents an approximation of the Thai baht's correct long run valuation, and a currency may be considered over- or under-valued if it is more than 10% above or below the PPP estimate. On Dec 10, the Thai baht was OVERVALUED by 33% compared with its recently estimated PPP of Bt 40.8 per US$. THAILAND: Short Term and Long Term Interest Rates
1997/98 Asian Crisis
Actual Consensus Forecasts
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan 96
Dec. 10 End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013
Short Term Rates
3-month: 2.9% 10-year: 3.4%
3.0% 3.5%
3.2% 3.6%
Long Term Rates
Jan 98
Jan 00
Jan 02
Jan 04
Jan 06
Jan 08
Jan 10
Jan 12
%
12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 -3.0 -6.0 -9.0 -12.0 '96 '97 '98
Thailand: Annual GDP Growth and Inflation

(year-on-year)
CPI Inflation Real GDP Growth
Recent Quarterly Outturns (y-o-y)

2011 Q4 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3
GDP: CPI:
'99 '00
-8.9% 4.0%
'01 '02
0.4% 3.4%
'03 '04
4.4% 2.5%
'05 '06
3.0% 2.9%
'07 '08 '09 '10
Consensus Forecasts
'11
'12
'13
(US$bn)
THAILAND: Current Account and FX Reserves
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20
EXPORTS TO: China Japan USA Hong Kong Malaysia Other TOTAL:
FX Reserves
Consensus Forecasts
Current Account Balance '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
IMPORTS FROM: Japan 42.2 China 30.6 United Arab Emirates 14.5 USA 13.5 Malaysia 12.3 Other 115.7 TOTAL: 228.9
18.4 13.4 6.3 5.9 5.4 50.5 100.0
11
DECEMBER 2012
SURVEY DATE SPOT RATE (Dec 10, 2012):
THAI BAHT
FORECASTS: THAI BAHT PER US$
End Jan. End Mar. End Dec % change End Dec from spot 2014 2013 2013 2013
31.00 na 30.15 30.45 30.50 30.73 30.49 30.89 30.70 30.40 31.50 30.69 30.65 30.67 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 30.15 31.50 0.29 30.70 30.50 30.15 30.20 30.30 30.60 30.30 30.70 30.70 30.51 31.40 30.63 30.53 30.54 0.4 0.1 -0.4 30.00 31.50 0.36 27.00 29.00 29.20 29.75 29.80 30.00 30.20 30.31 30.50 30.54 30.80 31.52 30.00 29.93 2.5 1.1 0.8 27.00 31.53 1.05 13.6 5.8 5.1 3.1 3.0 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.5 -0.4 -2.7 2.3 2.5 27.00 na na na na 29.75 na 30.03 30.50 29.87 30.40 30.44 29.59 29.63 3.5 3.5 3.1 27.00 30.50 1.14
THE CONSENSUS
On the second Monday of every month we ask our panel to forecast spot rates for the Thai baht against the US$ over a range of time horizons. The Consensus is the mean of all the forecasts received, including Other Forecasters polled whose names do not appear. FECF then calculates the annual percent change and the discount (-) or premium (+) of this month's consensus forecast to the survey date spot rate. The interpolated quarter and annual average figures shown below are based on a simple straight line interpolation of consensus forecasts.
Interpolated Rates Bahts per US Dollar Quarter Average End Quarter
US$1 = Bht 30.68

UBS Goldman Sachs JP Morgan Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi HSBC Bank of Nova Scotia Morgan Stanley General Motors ING Financial Markets Citigroup ANZ Bank IHS Global Insight Other Forecasters (10) CONSENSUS (Mean) Dec Discount/Premium on Spot Nov. Discount/Premium on Spot Oct. Discount/Premium on Spot Dec High Dec Low Dec Standard Deviation
2012 Q 4 2013 Q 1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q 1 Q2 Q3 Q4
30.69 30.63 30.44 30.23 30.03 29.89 29.82 29.74 29.67
30.68 30.54 30.34 30.13 29.93 29.85 29.78 29.71 29.63
Bt per US$
THAI BAHT per US$: Daily High, Low, Closing
Yen/Baht Cross Rate

Yen per Bt
2.75 2.70 2.65 2.60
30.0
Yen/Baht forecasts on page 33.
30.5
2.55 2.50 2.45 2.40 Jul 2 12 Aug 9 12 Sep 18 12 Oct 26 12 Dec 5 12
31.0
31.5
32.0 Jul 2 12
Aug 9 12
Sep 18 12
Oct 26 12
Dec 5 12
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts Nominal GDP (2011): US345.6bn GDP per Capita: US$4,973 Population (mid-2011) : 69.5mn 2008 2009 2010 2011 2.5 -2.3 7.8 0.1 Real GDP, % 5.5 -0.8 3.3 3.8 Consumer Prices, % 2.2 21.9 10.0 5.9 Current Account, US$bn 33.31 34.29 31.69 30.49 Baht/US$, annual average 3.0 1.4 2.2 3.2 Short Term Interest Rates1 108.3 133.6 165.7 165.2 Forex Reserves, end yr, US$bn
1
Consensus Forecasts 2012 2013 5.4 4.4 3.0 3.4 0.3 2.5 31.07 30.33 3.0 3.2 na na
1
3 mth interbank (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
Currency Unit: The currency unit is the Thai baht (Bt) which is divided into 100 satangs. Central Bank: The Bank of Thailand comes under the supervision of the Ministry of Finance. The current governor is Mr. Prasarn Trairatvorakul. Currency Linkages: In July 1997, the central bank abandoned the baht's peg to a basket of currencies in favour of a managed float. Trading and Hedging Markets: A two-tier foreign exchange market (onshore and offshore) operated between late 2006 and early 2008 due to restrictions on currency trading by or with non-residents. The government has since eased capital controls, allowing the dual exchange rate system to merge into one. Government: Ms Yingluck Shinawatra (sister of former leader Thaksin) was elected as Thailand's first female Prime Minister in July 2011. She leads the Puea Thai Party (which has a parliamentary majority of 265 out of 500 seats) and has formed a six party coalition. Next elections by 2015. Exchange Controls: There are now few formal exchange controls, except for licensing requirements for some capital transactions. Debt Ratings: Moody's: Baa1 Standard and Poor's: BBB+ Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012
12
HUNGARIAN FORINT
HUNGARIAN FORINTS per Euro: Actual and Purchasing Power Parity Estimates
145 170 195 PPP Estimate 220 245 270 295 320 Jan 96 Jan 98 Forints/euro *
DECEMBER 2012
Deadlock in IMF Aid Talks
The forint traded at Hft283.2 per euro on December 10, similar to its level a month ago, but it has experienced some volatility in between. The recession in Hungary has deepened during the course of 2012, as the economy shrank in quarter-on-quarter terms for the third consecutive time. Growth fell 0.2% in Q3, exacerbated by a slump in agricultural output. Other sectors of the economy also fared poorly, including finance and insurance, while industrial production dropped 3.8% (m-o-m) in October alone (based on seasonal and working day adjusted series). Household consumption fell 3.9% (y-o-y) in Q3, while gross capital formation plunged 8.1%. The weak economic situation has been blamed partly on the controversial policies of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is trying to keep the budget deficit below the 3.0% of GDP threshold required for EU cohesion funding. In addition, investor sentiment has been particularly sensitive to a lack of progress between the government and IMF over a possible bailout loan, as the former pressed ahead last week with company taxes to close holes in its public finances against the advice of the latter. Hungarys credit rating was downgraded to BB by S&P last month, with the agency putting an unpredictable business environment as a key reason behind the move. The National Bank slashed interest rates by 25 basis points for the fourth consecutive month to 6.0% in late November, in an attempt to support the economy, which is expected to contract 1.3% in 2012 and barely grow in 2013 (consensus forecasts).
DIRECTION OF TRADE
GDP Growth
* vs. synthetic euro prior to Jan. '99
Average Producer Price Inflation Hungary (2002-2011) = 3.76% Euro zone (2002-2011) = 2.39%
Jan 00
Jan 02
Jan 04
Jan 06
Jan 08
Jan 10
Jan 12
The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory asserts that, over the long-term, the trend of an exchange rate is determined by cumulative differences in the inflation rates of the two countries concerned. In the above chart we have estimated a long-term PPP trend by relating the average exchange rate (2002-2011) to indices of producer price inflation in Hungary and the euro zone over the same period. The PPP line above represents an approximation of the forint's long-run value, and a currency may be considered over- or under-valued if it is more than 10% above or below the PPP estimate. On December 10, the Hungarian forint was 1.1% below its recently estimated PPP of Hft280 per euro.
%
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan 96 Consumer Price Inflation Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Short Term Interest Rates90 Day T-bills
HUNGARY: Short Term Interest Rates and Inflation
%
25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 '96 '97 '98 '99
HUNGARY: GDP Growth and Inflation

(year-on-year)
Recent Quarterly GDP Growth
Q1 2012 Q2 Q3
CPI Inflation
y-o-y: q-o-q:
-1.3% -1.1%
-1.4% -0.4%
-1.6% -0.2%
Consensus Forecasts
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
HUNGARY: Current Account and FX Reserves

(US$bn)
55 45 35 25 15 5 -5 -15 '96 Current Account Balance '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
(-0.1)
EXPORTS TO: Germany Romania Slovakia Italy United Kingdom Other TOTAL: IMPORTS FROM: Germany Russia China Austria Netherlands Other TOTAL:
2011 US$bns 28.1 6.4 6.1 5.6 5.1 60.8 112.2
% of Total 25.1 5.7 5.4 5.0 4.6 54.2 100.0
FX Reserves
Consensus Forecasts
25.3 8.9 8.6 6.4 4.5 48.9 102.6
24.7 8.6 8.4 6.2 4.4 47.7 100.0
13
DECEMBER 2012
SURVEY DATE SPOT RATE (Dec. 10, 2012):
HUNGARIAN FORINT
FORECASTS: HUNGARIAN FORINTS PER EURO
THE CONSENSUS
On the second Monday of every month we ask our panel to forecast spot rates for the Hungarian forint against the euro over a range of time horizons. The Consensus is the mean of all the forecasts received. FECF then calculates the annual percent change and the discount (-) or premium (+) of this month's consensus forecast to the survey date spot rate. The interpolated quarter and annual average figures shown below are based on a simple straight line interpolation of consensus forecasts.
Interpolated Rates Forints per Euro Quarter Average 282.2 2012 Q 4 284.7 2013 Q 1 285.3 Q2 284.9 Q3 284.5 Q4 284.8 2014 Q 1 285.8 Q2 286.7 Q3 287.7 Q4
Hft per US$
205
Euro 1 = Hft 283.2
278.4 279.0 290.0 285.0 279.5 278.2 282.3 285.0 295.0 290.0 287.8 284.5 -0.5 -0.5 -1.1 278.2 295.0 5.7 275.0 278.0 290.0 285.0 276.4 275.0 285.5 290.0 300.0 290.0 297.1 285.5 -0.8 -0.5 0.1 275.0 300.0 8.7 270.0 275.0 275.0 280.0 280.0 285.0 286.7 290.0 290.0 290.0 307.5 284.3 -0.4 0.6 0.5 270.0 307.5 10.3 4.9 3.0 3.0 1.1 1.1 -0.6 -1.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -7.9 -0.4 na 273.0 na 270.0 na na 279.8 300.0 290.0 290.0 317.5 288.2 -1.7 -2.6 -1.6 270.0 317.5 16.5
HSBC Commerzbank JP Morgan Credit Agricole CIB Credit Suisse Morgan Stanley Oxford Economics BoA - Merrill Lynch Raiffeisen Research Vienna Institute - WIIW IHS Global Insight CONSENSUS (Mean) Dec. Discount/Premium on Spot Nov. Discount/Premium on Spot Oct Discount/Premium on Spot Dec. High Dec. Low Dec. Standard Deviation
End Quarter 283.7 285.5 285.1 284.7 284.3 285.3 286.3 287.2 288.2
HUNGARIAN FORINTS per Euro: Daily, High, Low, Closing

Hft per Euro
270
Forint /US$ Cross Rate
215
225
275
235
Forint/US$ forecasts on page 33.

Aug 9 12 Sep 18 12 Oct 26 12 Dec 5 12
280
245 Jul 2 12
285
290
295 J ul 2 12
Aug 9 12
Sep 18 12
O c t 26 12
Dec 5 12
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts Nominal GDP (2011): US$139.7bn GDP per Capita: US$13,970 Population (mid-2011): 10.0mn 2008 2009 2010 2011 0.9 -6.8 1.3 1.6 Real GDP, % 6.1 4.2 4.9 3.9 Consumer Prices, % -11.2 -0.2 1.4 1.3 Current Account, US$bn Forints/Euro, annual average 252.1 281.1 275.5 279.5 9.3 6.0 5.7 7.4 Short Term Interest Rates1 33.6 44.7 42.5 47.7 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn
1
Nov. 2012 Consensus Forecasts 2012 2013 -1.3 0.3 5.8 4.9 1.8 2.2 288.7 284.9 6.0 5.9 na na
90 day T-bills (%), end period. Forecasts for approx. 3 and 12 months from survey date.
Currency unit: The Hungarian forint is divided into 100 filler. Central Bank: The state-owned National Bank of Hungary is responsible for implementing monetary policy. The governor is Mr. Andrs Simor. Currency Linkages: In February 2008, the horizontal ERM-2 like trading range arrangement was abandoned in favour of a independent float. Medium term inflation target of 3.0%. Trading and Hedging Markets: Hft/US$ and Hft/euro futures and options on futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Government: The president is Mr. Janos Ader. Mr. Viktor Orban is the prime minister, whose Fidesz party secured 263 seats in the 386 member parliament in April 2010. Next parliamentary and presidential elections by 2014 and in 2017, respectively. Debt Ratings: Moodys: Ba1 Standard & Poors: BB Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012
14
CHILEAN PESO
CHILEAN PESOS per US$: Actual and Purchasing Power Parity Estimates
350 Pesos/US$ 450 550 650 750
Average Producer Price Inflation Chile (2002-11) = 5.60% US (2002-11) = 2.82%
DECEMBER 2012
Slowdown Expected
The climb in the peso stalled after it touched 470/US$ in late September and the currency was held in a range near Ps480/US$ for much of November. Its advance, though, resumed in early December, following news that the Chilean economy expanded by 5.7% (y-o-y) and 1.4% (q-o-q) in Q3. Growth has been driven mainly by strength in domestic demand, with household consumption and gross fixed investment up by 6.4% (y-o-y) and 13.3%, respectively. Ongoing headwinds from the US and Europe, though, suggest that that momentum will be difficult to sustain. A quarterly trade deficit of US$1.8bn was recorded in Q3, the first since Q4 2008, as imports outstripped exports, while the current account shortfall rose to US$4.8bn. Industrial production has also started to ease in recent quarters, with a drop of 0.5% (y-o-y) in Q3 leading to concerns about possible weakness ahead. Most observers expect Chile to perform well in 2013 and above the regional average, but expand by less than the 5.3% estimated in 2012. Inflation has fallen from the 4.0% levels registered at the start of the year, which has alleviated the urgency for monetary tightening. It dropped by 0.5% (m-o-m) in November, bringing the y-o-y figure down to 2.1%, very close to the lower bound of the 2.0% to 4% target range set by the central bank. The bank held rates at 5.0% at its latest meeting, citing the global uncertainty created by the euro zone debt crisis and the upcoming fiscal cliff in the US. On balance, the consensus is predicting that the peso will depreciate 3.1% over the next twelve months.
DIRECTION OF TRADE
PPP Estimate
850 Jan 96
Jan 98
Jan 00
Jan 02
Jan 04
Jan 06
Jan 08
Jan 10
Jan 12
The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory of exchange rates asserts that, over the long term, the trend of an exchange rate is determined by cumulative differences in the inflation rates of the two countries concerned. In the above chart we have estimated a long term PPP trend by relating the average exchange rate (1992-2011) to indices of producer price inflation in the two countries over the same period. The PPP line above represents an approximation of the Chilean peso's correct long run valuation, and a currency may be considered over- or under-valued if it is more than 10% above or below the PPP estimate. On December 10, the Chilean peso was OVERVALUED by 46% compared with its recently estimated PPP of Ps693 per US$. CHILE: Copper Prices and the Exchange Rate
Pesos/ US$
US cents per pound
370 470 570 670 770 Jan 96 Copper Price (right scale) Pesos per US$ (left scale)
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
Jan 98
Jan 00
Jan 02
Jan 04
Jan 06
Jan 08
Jan 10
Jan 12
CHILE: Inflation and Real Interest Rates

%
18.0 14.0 10.0 6.0 2.0 -2.0 Jan 96 Short Term Interest Rates Consumer Price Inflation (% change on previous year)
Jan 98
Jan 00
Jan 02
Jan 04
Jan 06
Jan 08
Jan 10
Jan 12
CHILE: Current Account and FX Reserves

(US$bn)
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 Current Account Balance '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 FX Reserves
EXPORTS TO: China USA Japan Brazil Korea Other TOTAL:
2011 US$Bns 17.9 9.0 8.8 4.4 4.3 35.6 80.1
% of Total 22.4 11.3 11 5.5 5.4 44.4 100.0
Consensus Forecasts
IMPORTS FROM: USA China Brazil Argentina Japan Other TOTAL:
14.8 12.6 6.2 4.8 2.9 29.4 70.8
20.9 17.9 8.8 6.7 4.2 41.6 100.0
15
DECEMBER 2012
SURVEY DATE SPOT
CHILEAN PESO
FORECASTS: CHILEAN PESOS PER US$
463.3 480.0 473.7 482.0 470.0 486.3 481.2 490.0 486.0 na 479.1 -0.7 0.3 -0.9 463.3 490.0 8.6 460.0 470.0 479.3 484.0 470.0 493.0 486.9 495.0 494.8 498.0 482.9 -1.5 -0.4 -1.5 460.0 498.0 12.9 450.0 475.0 486.9 490.0 490.0 497.0 499.8 500.0 510.3 512.0 490.8 -3.1 -2.4 -4.0 450.0 512.0 18.1 5.7 0.1 -2.3 -2.9 -2.9 -4.3 -4.8 -4.9 -6.8 -7.1 -3.1 na 455.0 506.5 na na 510.0 505.2 490.0 459.1 na 487.1 -2.3 -3.2 -3.7 455.0 510.0 24.7
THE CONSENSUS
On the second Monday of every month we ask our panel to forecast spot rates for the Chilean peso against the US$ over a range of time horizons. The Consensus is the mean of all the forecasts received. FECF then calculates the annual percent change and the discount (-) or premium (+) of this month's consensus forecast to the survey date spot rate. The interpolated quarter and annual average figures shown below are based on a simple straight line interpolation of consensus forecasts.
Interpolated Rates Pesos per US$ Quarter Average End Quarter
RATE (Dec 10, 2012)
1 US$ = Ps 475.7
Royal Bank of Canada Morgan Stanley General Motors Citigroup JP Morgan Bank of Nova Scotia Oxford Economics HSBC IHS Global Insight Deutsche Bank CONSENSUS (Mean)
Dec. Discount/Premium on Spot Nov Discount/Premium on Spot Oct. Discount/Premium on Spot Dec. High Dec. Low Dec. Standard Deviation
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Pesos per Yen
5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0
478.2 480.0 484.2 486.9 489.5 490.3 489.4 488.5 487.5
476.8 482.9 485.6 488.2 490.8 489.9 488.9 488.0 487.1
Pesos per US$
CHILEAN PESOS per US$: Daily Closing
Peso/Yen Cross Rate
460
470
6.1 6.2 6.3
480
6.4 Jul 2 12 Aug 9 12 Sep 18 12 Oct 26 12 Dec 5 12
490
500
510 Jul 2 12
Aug 9 12
Sep 18 12
Oct 26 12
Dec 5 12
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts Nov. 2012 Nominal GDP (2011): US$248.6bn GDP per Capita: US$14,369 Consensus Population (mid-2011) : 17.3mn Forecasts 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Real GDP, % 3.3 -1.0 6.1 6.0 5.3 4.6 Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec, % 7.1 2.3 3.1 -1.4 3.0 4.4 Current Account, US$bn -7.6 -9.7 -5.8 3.5 3.3 -3.2 Pesos/US$, annual average 486.2 485.1 522.5 560.9 510.2 483.7 5.0 5.2 8.3 0.5 3.3 5.3 Short Term Interest Rates1 40.2 41.2 22.8 23.8 26.3 40.1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn
1
Real rate on 90-day central bank bills (%), end period. Forecasts for approximately 3 and 12 months from latest survey.
Currency Unit: The Chilean peso is subdivided into 100 centavos. Central Bank: The Banco Central de Chile was guaranteed independence in 1989. Mr. Rodrigo Vergara was appointed governor of the Central Bank in December 2011. Currency Linkages: Until September 1999, the peso was linked to a basket of currencies (80% US$, 15% euro and 5% yen) and the reference rate was adjusted in line with inflation differentials. Now the currency floats freely. Trading and Hedging Markets: There are two spot forex markets; an official market which accounts for 90% of transactions and an informal market for other transactions. There is also a forward market, but currency derivatives markets are not well developed. Government: Mr. Sebastin Piera was elected President for a four-year term in January 2010. He leads a right-wing government. The Chamber of deputies (lower house) is elected for four-year terms and members of the senate (upper house) serve eight-year terms. Next elections by 2013. Debt Ratings: Moody's: Aa3 Standard & Poor's: A+ Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012
16
FORECASTERS
DECEMBER 2012
Forecasts for the currencies shown on the next several pages were provided by the following leading forecasters:
ABN AMRO ANZ Bank Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi BBVA Credit Agricole CIB ECOSA Goldman Sachs IDEAglobal JP Morgan Nedbank Economics Raiffeisen Research Royal Bank of Canada Societe Generale The Vienna Institute - WIIW
ABSA Capital BoA - Merrill Lynch BNP Paribas Citigroup Credit Suisse Erste Bank HSBC IHS Global Insight Macquarie Bank Nomura Securities Rand Merchant Bank Royal Bank of Scotland Standard Bank UBS
Allianz Bank of Nova Scotia Barclays Capital Commerzbank Deutsche Bank Research General Motors ICICI Bank ING Financial Markets Morgan Stanley Oxford Economics Roubini Global Economics Santander Standard Chartered Bank UniCredit
plus more than 200 other forecasters located in 27 countries.

e = consensus estimate based on latest survey, except for FX reserves, which in some cases are latest available monthly data.
MAJOR CURRENCIES ARGENTINIAN PESO

Pesos per US$
Spot Rate (Dec. 10): Forecasts (end-Jan. 2013): (end-Mar. 2013): (end-Dec. 2013): (end-Dec. 2014):
Interpolated Rates Quarter End Average Quarter Consensus of 9 F'csts % Chge from ---- Range ---Spot High Low
DECEMBER 2012
Policy: During 1991-2001, Argentina operated a ps1 = US$1 currency board system. In 2002, the government announced a devaluation and, later, floated the peso with strict exchange controls. Outlook: Concerns about a sovereign debt default have undermined confidence in the economy and exchange rate. In October a US federal court barred Argentina from repaying creditors of restructured bonds, unless it satisfied claims from holdout creditors. However, the country received a reprieve from a US appeals court in late November, giving it more time to fight the earlier ruling.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): Nominal GDP (2011): US$448.2bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): 40.8mn B3/BConsensus
4.864 5.129 5.243 5.878 6.547
-5.2 -7.2 -17.3 -25.7
4.773 4.913 5.077 5.243
6.040 6.130 7.000 8.000
Pesos per US$

2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
4.805 5.137 5.349 5.560 5.772 5.961 6.129 6.296 6.463
4.952 5.243 5.455 5.666 5.878 6.045 6.212 6.379 6.547
Pesos/US$ PPP Estimate (Latest: 5.30)
US$1 reportedly bought Ps 6.45 in the black market in early December 2012.
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 6.8 0.9 9.2 8.9 Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec, % 7.2 7.7 10.9 9.5 Current Account, US$bn 6.8 11.0 2.8 -0.3 Pesos/US$, annual avge. 3.144 3.710 3.896 4.110 15.1 9.4 10.3 13.3 Short Term Interest Rates1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 44.4 42.9 46.6 40.1
1
2012 1.5 10.2 1.9 4.547 1 14.8 40.6
2013 3.0 10.8 2.2 5.449 1 15.8 41.3
Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
30-day peso deposits (%), end period. Forecasts approximately for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
17
DECEMBER 2012 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

US$ per A$
See p.33 for cross rates
MAJOR CURRENCIES
Policy: The A$ is free floating. Inflation target of 2% to 3%. Outlook: The A$ has drifted higher in recent months, buoyed in part by signs of recovery in China and improving risk sentiment. Support also came from the out-performance of the Australian expansion, which slowed in Q3 but remained above 3% (y-o-y). Inflation rose to 2.0% (y-o-y) in Q3 and may increase following the carbon tax hike in July. However, the Reserve Bank slashed rates to 3.0% on December 3 in a bid to protect the recovery from external shocks and a slowdown in the mining sector.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 22.6mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$1484.8bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aaa/AAA Consensus
% Chge Forecast Consensus from ---- Range ---of 34 F'csts Spot High Low
Interpolated Rates Quarter End Average Quarter 1.038 1.044 2012 Q4 1.032 1.023 2013 Q1 1.019 1.015 Q2 1.011 1.008 Q3 1.004 1.000 Q4 0.996 0.992 2014 Q1 0.988 0.984 Q2 0.980 0.976 Q3 0.972 0.968 Q4
1.050 1.034 1.023 1.000 0.968

1.15 1.05 0.95 0.85 0.75 0.65
-1.5 -2.6 -4.7 -7.8
1.080 1.060 1.090 1.090
0.978 0.970 0.900 0.900
US$ per A$
US$/A$
PPP Estimate (Latest: 0.70)
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 2.7 1.4 2.6 2.4 Consumer Prices, % 4.4 1.8 2.9 3.3 Current Account, US$bn -46.4 -41.4 -36.9 -34.4 US$/A$, annual avge. 0.839 0.780 0.917 1.032 Short Term Interest Rates1 3.9 4.2 5.0 4.5 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 29.9 30.8 32.8 36.0
1
2012 2013 3.5 2.7 1.8 2.9 -59.1 -71.9 1.035 1.016 3.1 1 3.2 1 na na
0.55 Jan 06Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11Jan 12
90-day Dealer bill rate (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
BRAZILIAN REAL
Reals per US$
Policy: Crawling peg was abandoned in 1999 in favour of a floating exchange rate with inflation targeting. The tax on foreign fixed income investment was raised twice in October 2010, from 2% to 6%.
2.080 2.078 2.077 2.057 2.061

1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0
0.1 0.2 1.1 0.9
1.993 1.980 1.930 1.950
Outlook: A slowdown in the economy has weighed on the real, which slid 3.5% during November to 2.11/US$, its weakest level in more than 3 years. Growth remained below 1.0% (y-o-y) in Q3, as 2.120 increases in public spending failed to revive investment. Govern2.150 ment efforts to curb the strength in the currency and support the 2.200 manufacturing sector have also contributed to its decline. 2.200
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 196.7mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$2476.7bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P):Baa2/BBB Consensus
Reals per US$
Reals /US$
2008 Real GDP, % 5.2 Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec, % 5.9 Current Account, US$bn -28.2 Reals/US$, annual avge. 1.834 Short Term Interest Rates1 13.8 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 192.8
2009 -0.3 4.3 -24.3 1.999 8.8 231.9
2010 7.5 5.9 -47.3 1.759 10.8 280.6
2011 2.7 6.5 -52.5 1.673 11.0 343.4
2012 2013 1.5 3.8 5.4 5.3 -52.1 -62.0 1.951 2.070 7.3 1 7.5 1 380.6 393.2
Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08Jan 09 Jan 10Jan 11 Jan 12
1 SELIC overnight rate (%), end period. Forecasts for approximately 3 and 12 months from survey date.
CANADIAN DOLLAR
C$ per US$
Policy: The C$ is independently floating. The USA is Canada's largest trading partner, and hence the relationship with the US$ is of particular importance. Inflation target of 2%. Outlook: See pages 8 and 9.
Interpolated Rates Quarter End Average Quarter
0.987 0.988 0.989 0.985 1.008
-0.1 -0.2 0.2 -2.1
0.950 0.950 0.920 0.940
1.020 1.040 1.060 1.069

Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 34.4 mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$1739.0bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aaa/AAA Consensus
C$ per US$
0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10Jan 11 Jan 12 PPP Estimate (Latest: 1.11) C$/US$
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0.991 0.988 0.989 0.987 0.986 0.988 0.994 0.999 1.005
0.988 0.989 0.988 0.987 0.985 0.991 0.997 1.002 1.008
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 1.1 -2.8 3.2 2.6 Consumer Prices, % 2.4 0.3 1.8 2.9 Current Account, US$bn 1.8 -40.6 -58.4 -52.8 1.067 1.143 1.030 0.990 C$/US$, annual avge. 0.9 0.2 1.0 0.8 Short Term Interest Rates1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 41.5 42.6 44.9 52.8
2012 2013 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.8 -68.0 -60.0 0.999 0.988 1.0 1 1.2 1 na na
1 3 month treasury bills (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
18
MAJOR CURRENCIES CHILEAN PESO

Pesos per US$
Interpolated Rates Quarter End Average Quarter % Chge Forecast Consensus from ---- Range --of 10 F'csts Spot High Low
DECEMBER 2012
Policy: The peso was linked to a fixed basket of currencies until late 1999. It has since been allowed to float, with policy focused on targeting core inflation (currently set at 3%). Outlook: See pages 14 and 15.
475.7 479.1 482.9 490.8 487.1

440 480 520 560 600 640 680 720 760
-0.7 -1.5 -3.1 -2.3
463.3 460.0 450.0 455.0
490.0 498.0 512.0 510.0

Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 17.3 mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$248.6bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aa3/A+ Consensus
Pesos per US$

Pesos/US$
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
478.2 480.0 484.2 486.9 489.5 490.3 489.4 488.5 487.5
476.8 482.9 485.6 488.2 490.8 489.9 488.9 488.0 487.1
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 3.3 -1.0 6.1 6.0 Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec, % 7.1 -1.4 3.0 4.4 Current Account, US$bn -5.8 3.5 3.3 -3.2 Pesos/US$, annual avge. 522.5 560.9 510.2 483.7 Short Term Interest Rates1 8.3 0.5 3.3 5.3 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 22.8 23.8 26.3 40.1
2012 2013 5.3 4.6 2.3 3.1 -7.6 -9.7 486.2 485.1 5.01 5.2 1 40.2 41.2
800 Jan 06Jan 07Jan 08Jan 09Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12
1 Nominal rate on 90-day central bank bills (%), end period. Forecasts for approximately 3 and 12 months from survey date.
CHINESE RENMINBI
Renminbi per US$
- See p.33 for cross rates
Policy: A decade-long peg was dropped in 2005 in favour of a managed trading band. The managed rise pattern has been replaced by a freer floating band. (See chart for details).
6.235 6.254 6.249 6.158 6.068

5.60 5.80 6.00 6.20 6.40 6.60 6.80 7.00 7.20 7.40 7.60 7.80 8.00 8.20
-0.3 -0.2 1.2 2.8
6.200 6.150 6.020 5.890
Outlook: As expected, the climb in the renminbi (1.76% between September and October) eased in November and early December. 6.400 Critics partly attribute its loss of steam to a drop in political pressures 6.450 after the US elections. However, its rapid appreciation would have been difficult to sustain amid a slowdown in reserve accumulation 6.350 and lower trade and current account surpluses (as a % of GDP). 6.300
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 1.3bn Nominal GDP (2011): US$7298.1bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aa3/AAConsensus
Renminbi per US$

Rmb/US$
The daily rmb/US$ trading band was widened from +/0.5% (set in 2007) to +/-1.0% in April 2012.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Real GDP, % 9.6 9.2 10.4 9.3 7.7 8.1 Consumer Prices, % 5.9 -0.7 3.3 5.4 2.7 3.2 412.4 261.1 305.4 201.7 226.6 215.3 Current Account, US$bn 6.949 6.831 6.770 6.462 6.309 6.215 Rmb/US$, annual avge. 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.6 5.8 1 5.8 1 Short Term Interest Rates1 na na FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 1759 2328 2847 3181 1 One-year base lending rate for working capital (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey.
Jan 06 Jan 07Jan 08 Jan 09Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
COLOMBIAN PESO
Pesos per US$
Policy: Independently floating since 1999. Inflation targeting (set at between 2% and 4%) was part of the switch to a more flexible % Chge Forecast Consensus from ---- Range ---- exchange rate strategy. of 9 F'csts Spot High Low Outlook: After trading close to Ps1818/US$ during much of November, the Colombian peso rallied in early December. Growth in the 1800 1800 0.0 1759 1821 economy has remained resilient, while annual inflation averaged 1794 0.3 1772 1830 3.1% (y-o-y) in Q3, a drop from 3.3% in Q2. Policymakers might have 1808 -0.5 1750 1850 scope for further monetary easing in 2013, after an unexpected rate 1826 -1.4 1735 1915 reduction to 4.5% late last month.
Pesos per US$
1700 1850 2000 Pesos/US$ 2150 2300 2450 2600 2750 Jan 06Jan 07 Jan 08Jan 09 Jan 10Jan 11 Jan 12 PPP Estimate (Latest: 2207)
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 46.9mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$333.2bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Baa3/BBBConsensus
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1811 1798 1796 1801 1806 1810 1815 1819 1824
1800 1794 1799 1803 1808 1813 1817 1822 1826
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 3.5 1.7 4.0 5.9 Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec, % 7.7 2.0 3.2 3.7 Current Account, US$bn -6.7 -5.0 -8.8 -10.0 Pesos/US$, annual avge. 1968 2158 1899 1848 10.3 4.1 3.5 5.0 Short Term Interest Rates1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 22.8 23.2 26.3 29.0
1
2012 2013 4.4 4.4 3.1 3.1 -10.8 -10.9 1798 1800 na na 35.8 39.1
Average CD rate (%), end period.
19
DECEMBER 2012 CZECH KORUNA

Korunas per Euro
Consensus of 12 F'csts % Chge Forecast from --- Range --Spot High Low
MAJOR CURRENCIES
Czk per US$
Policy: The koruna peg to a basket of currencies was abandoned in May 1997 in favour of a managed float. Inflation targeting (currently 2% with a band of +/-1%) was introduced in 1998. Outlook: The slide in the koruna came to a halt in mid-November and the currency has risen by around 1% since. Real GDP shrank for a third consecutive quarter in Q3, hit by government austerity measures and weak demand. The National Bank is likely to hold rates at a record low 0.05% at its next meeting, despite a noticeable slowdown in inflation to 2.7% (y-o-y) last month.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 10.5mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$215.2bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): A1/AAConsensus
25.27 25.36 25.50 25.07 24.73

23 24 25 26 27 28 29
-0.4 -0.9 0.8 2.2
25.00 24.75 24.00 23.80
25.97 26.50 26.20 25.75
19.55 19.72 19.98 19.93 19.70
Korunas per Euro

Korunas/Euro
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 3.1 -4.5 2.5 1.9 Consumer Prices, % 6.4 1.1 1.4 1.9 -4.8 -4.8 -7.6 -6.3 Current Account, US$bn Korunas/Euro, annual avge. 25.01 26.48 25.30 24.60 3.6 1.5 1.2 1.2 Short Term Interest Rates1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 36.5 39.4 39.7 37.5
1
2012 2013 -1.0 0.6 3.4 2.5 -2.5 -2.8 25.15 25.31 0.5 1 0.5 1 na na
Jan 06Jan 07Jan 08Jan 09 Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12
3 mth interbank (%), end period. Forecasts for approximately 3 and 12 months from survey date.
DANISH KRONE
Kroners per Euro
Dkr per US$
Policy: The krone is linked to the euro via ERM-2, moving within limits of +/-2.25% around its central rate of Dkr7.46038/. A referendum on euro appears unlikely anytime soon. Outlook: The krone has retreated below 7.45 per euro in recent months, as Denmark adopted a negative deposit rate to counter capital inflows from investors fearful of turmoil in the euro zone. Growth of 0.1% (q-o-q) in Q3 enabled the economy to avoid a technical recession, following a revised 0.7% contraction in Q2. In year-on-year terms, the economy shrank 0.5%.
7.459 7.456 7.455 7.455 7.468
0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1
7.441 7.441 7.442 7.450
7.460 7.460 7.460 7.550
5.771 5.797 5.841 5.926 5.951
Interpolated Rates (see page 2) Kroners per Euro Quarter End 7.2 PPP Estimate Average Quarter (Latest: 7.74) 7.3 7.459 7.458 2012 Q4 Kroners/Euro 7.456 7.455 2013 Q1 7.4 7.455 7.455 Q2 7.5 7.455 7.455 Q3 7.455 7.455 Q4 7.6 7.456 7.458 2014 Q1 7.7 7.460 7.461 Q2 7.463 7.465 Q3 7.8 7.467 7.468 Q4 Jan 06Jan 07Jan 08Jan 09Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % -0.8 -5.7 1.6 1.1 Consumer Prices, % 3.4 1.3 2.3 2.7 Current Account, US$bn 9.9 10.5 18.4 18.9 Kroners/Euro, annual avge. 7.469 7.446 7.452 7.463 Short Term Interest Rates1 4.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 39.8 70.6 74.3 78.2
1
2012 2013 0.2 0.8 2.5 1.9 17.9 16.7 7.444 7.455 na na na na
3 mth Euro-krone deposits (%), end period.
HONG KONG DOLLAR

HK$ per US$
Policy: Limits of HK$7.75 and HK$7.85 introduced around the HK$7.80 = US$1 peg in May 2005. Major FX regime changes seem unlikely until the renminbi (page 18) becomes fully convertible. Outlook: The HK$ has remained near the limit of its two way convertibility band in recent months, obliging the Monetary Authority to sell the currency each time it threatened to exceed its trading peg. Although monetary officials continue to reject calls for a review of the exchange rate regime, current policies have raised concerns about inflation, which was 3.8% (y-o-y) in October.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 7.1mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$243.7bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aa1/AAA Consensus
7.750 7.770 7.776 7.775 7.775
-0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
7.750 7.750 7.750 7.750
7.800 7.800 7.800 7.800
HK$ per US$

7.73 7.74 7.75 7.76 7.77 7.78 7.79 7.80 7.81 7.82 7.83 Jan 06Jan 07 Jan 08Jan 09 Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12 Trade Weighted Index (right scale) 114
(upper limit)
HK$/US$ (left scale)
112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 2.1 -2.5 6.8 4.9 Consumer Prices, % 4.3 0.6 2.3 5.3 Goods & Services Bal. US$bn 22.3 16.0 12.4 9.9 7.787 7.752 7.769 7.784 HK$/US$, annual avge. 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 Short Term Interest Rates1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 182.5 255.8 268.6 282.4
2012 2013 1.4 3.4 4.0 3.9 6.2 5.4 7.757 7.774 0.4 1 0.4 1 na na
1 3 month interbank rate (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
20
MAJOR CURRENCIES HUNGARIAN FORINT

Forints per Euro
% Chge Forecast Consensus from --- Range --of 11 F'csts Spot High Low
DECEMBER 2012
Policy: In February 2008, the horizontal ERM-2 like trading range arrangement was abandoned in favour of a independent float. Medium term inflation target of 3%. Outlook: See pages 12 and 13.
Hft per US$
283.2 284.5 285.5 284.3 288.2

225 235 245 255 265 275 285 295 305 315 325
-0.5 -0.8 -0.4 -1.7
278.2 275.0 270.0 270.0
295.0 300.0 307.5 317.5
219.1 221.2 223.7 226.0 229.7

Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 10.0 mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$139.7bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Ba1/BB Consensus 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.9 -6.8 1.3 1.6 -1.3 0.3 Real GDP, % 6.1 4.2 4.9 3.9 5.8 4.9 Consumer Prices, % -11.2 -0.2 1.4 1.3 1.8 2.2 Current Account, US$bn 288.7 284.9 Forints/Euro, annual avge. 252.1 281.1 275.5 279.5 9.3 6.0 5.7 7.4 6.0 1 5.9 1 Short Term Interest Rates1 33.6 44.7 42.5 47.7 na na FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn
1
Forints per Euro
Forints/Euro
PPP Estimate (Latest: 280)
Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11Jan 12
90 day T-bill rate (%), end period. Forecasts for approximately 3 and 12 months from latest survey date.
INDIAN RUPEE
Rupees per US$
Policy: The Reserve Bank targets a stable real effective exchange rate. It intervenes to influence the rupee/US$ rate to offset US$ movements against other trading partners' currencies. Outlook: Uncertainties about the global economy and the implementation of structural reforms have weighed on the rupee. Its weakness in October and much of November also reflected high inflation and twin deficits, which have restricted growth. However, the currency strengthened last week after the government won a key vote in parliament to open the retail sector to foreign investment.
Data & Forecasts* Population (mid-2011):1.2bn Nominal GDP (2011): US$1909.6bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P):Baa3/BBBConsensus 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Real GDP, % 6.7 8.4 8.4 6.5 5.5 6.5 9.0 12.4 10.4 8.3 9.4 7.7 Consumer Prices, % -27.9 -38.2 -45.9 -78.2 -71.3 -71.9 Current Account, US$bn 53.30 53.26 Rupees/US$, annual avge. 43.51 48.41 45.73 46.67 1 1 4.7 4.1 7.1 8.8 7.8 7.5 Short Term Interest Rates1 na na FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 246.6 258.6 267.8 262.9 * All data are for fiscal years beginning April 1 except rupees/US$ and forex reserves 1 91 day T-bill rate (%), fiscal year end. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
54.52 53.71 53.51 52.71 51.15

38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58
1.5 1.9 3.4 6.6
51.67 51.00 49.00 47.50
55.00 55.00 59.00 56.00
Rupees per US$
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
54.09 53.73 53.38 53.11 52.84 52.51 52.12 51.73 51.34
54.25 53.51 53.24 52.97 52.71 52.32 51.93 51.54 51.15
Rupees/US$
INDONESIAN RUPIAH
Rupiah per US$
Policy: Until August 1997, the rupiah followed a crawling US$ peg system, with a 4% to 5% annual decline. It now operates under a managed float. FX controls were tightened in late 2008.
9630 9645 9667 9565 9406
-0.2 -0.4 0.7 2.4
9460 9450 9100 8700
Outlook: The downtrend in the rupiah has eased in recent months, as Bank Indonesia (backed by a large amount of FX reserves) 9800 intervened to stabilise it. Monetary officials have hinted at a tighten10200 ing of policy to curb inflation, which fell to 4.3% (y-o-y) in November, but may rise in 2013. The economy expanded 6.2% (y-o-y) in Q3, in 10000 line with the previous two quarters. 9800
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 242.3mn Nominal GDP (2011):US$846.8bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Baa3/BB+ Consensus
Interpolated Rates Rupiah per US$ Quarter End Average Quarter 75 00 R up ia h/U S $ 85 00 9608 9635 2012 Q4 9651 9667 95 00 2013 Q1 9650 9633 1 05 00 Q2 9616 9599 1 15 00 Q3 P P P E s tim ate 9582 9565 1 25 00 Q4 (Lates t: 139 68) 9545 9525 1 35 00 2014 Q1 9505 9485 Q2 1 45 00 9465 9445 Q3 1 55 00 9426 9406 Q4 Ja n 06 Jan 0 7 Jan 08 Jan 09Jan 10 Ja n 11 Jan 12 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012
2008 2009 Real GDP, % 6.0 4.6 Consumer Prices, % 9.5 4.8 Current Account, US$bn 0.1 10.6 Rupiah/US$, annual avge. 9699 10390 Short Term Interest Rates1 6.3 5.8 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 49.3 60.0 1 3 month deposits (%), end year. Forecasts from survey date.
2010 2011 2012 2013 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.1 5.1 5.4 4.4 5.2 5.1 1.7 -19.7 -15.3 9090 8770 9358 9624 1 1 6.7 5.5 5.2 5.7 90.0 103.6 na na for 3 and 12 months
21
DECEMBER 2012 ISRAELI SHEKEL

Shekels per US$
MAJOR CURRENCIES
Policy: Inflation targeting was introduced in 1997, with an annual Shekel CPI price stability target range of 1% to 3%. The shekel has floated independently since 2004, with occasional FX intervention.
per Euro Outlook: The conflict in Gaza has hit growth in Israel through lost
3.830 3.909 3.911 3.890 3.975

3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5
-2.0 -2.1 -1.5 -3.6
3.791 3.700 3.550 3.772
4.052 4.052 4.212 4.212
4.951 5.027 4.992 4.893 4.989
productivity and the cost of military action. However, currency losses during the first half of November were reversed in the second half, with the shekel trading at 3.81/US$ at the end of the month. The Bank of Israel has held interest rates at 2.0%, after the 25bp cut in October, citing a lack of real inflation pressures.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 7.6mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$239.1bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): A1/A+ Consensus
Shekels per US$

Shekels/US$
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 4.0 0.8 4.8 4.8 Consumer Prices, % 4.6 3.3 2.7 3.4 Current Account, US$bn 2.2 7.3 8.2 1.9 Shekels/US$, annual avge. 3.588 3.932 3.739 3.578 Short Term Interest Rates1 3.6 1.4 2.0 2.0 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 42.5 60.6 70.9 76.3
2012 2013 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.2 -1.5 -1.9 3.849 3.901 na na na na
4.7 Jan 06Jan 07Jan 08Jan 09Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12
1 3 mth treasury bills (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
MALAYSIAN RINGGIT
M$ per US$
Policy: Pegged to the US$ at M$3.80 between September 3, 1998 and July 2005. The central bank has since adopted a managed float with exchange controls. Outlook: Demand for ringgit denominated assets has strengthened in recent weeks, following a positive GDP reading for Q3. Growth was 5.2% (y-o-y), not far from the 5.3% average in the first half of 2012, while inflation of only 1.3% (y-o-y) in October the same rate as September may reduce the urgency for Bank Negara Malaysia to raise rates (currently 3.0%).
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 28.9mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$278.7bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): A3/AConsensus 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 4.8 -1.5 7.2 5.1 5.2 4.8 Real GDP, % 5.4 0.6 1.6 3.2 1.7 2.2 Consumer Prices, % 39.4 31.4 27.3 31.7 17.8 17.8 Current Account, US$bn 3.089 3.013 Ringgits/US$, annual avge. 3.336 3.525 3.221 3.060 3.4 2.1 3.0 3.2 3.21 3.31 Short Term Interest Rates1 na na FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 90.5 92.9 102.3 130.0
1 3 month interbank (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
3.060 3.051 3.037 2.966 2.940

2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0
0.3 0.7 3.1 4.1
3.020 2.970 2.800 2.800
3.100 3.100 3.077 3.113
M$ per US$
Ringgit/US$
Jan 06Jan 07 Jan 08Jan 09 Jan 10Jan 11 Jan 12
MEXICAN PESO
Pesos per US$ -See p.33 for cross rates Spot Rate (Dec. 10): Forecasts (end-Jan. 2013): (end-Mar. 2013): (end-Dec. 2013): (end-Dec. 2014):
Policy: Since the 1994 devaluation, Mexico has adopted a floating exchange rate system with occasional intervention. Inflation targeting was introduced in 2001 (currently 3% with a band of +/-1%). Outlook: The peso has rallied in recent weeks, bouyed in part by optimism about the economic outlook. The manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 in November its highest level since June while new orders rose in October at their fastest pace since May. Mr Enrique Pena Nieto was sworn in as Mexicos new president on December 1, promising to underpin economic growth and tackle crime.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 114.8mn Nominal GDP (2011):US$1154.3bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Baa1/BBB Consensus 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.2 -6.0 5.3 3.9 3.9 3.5 Real GDP, % 3.6 4.4 3.8 4.1 3.7 Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec, % 6.5 -18.0 -5.2 -1.7 -9.2 -7.2 -13.6 Current Account, US$bn 11.13 13.51 12.64 12.42 13.14 12.71 Pesos/US$, annual avge. 8.0 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.4 1 4.5 1 Short Term Interest Rates1 163.3 175.9 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 94.0 94.1 114.9 137.5
1 28-day CETES (%), end period. Forecasts for approximately 3 and 12 months from survey date.
12.79 12.79 12.78 12.58 12.72
0.0 0.1 1.7 0.6
12.40 12.40 12.00 11.60
12.97 13.00 13.17 13.30
Pesos per US$

10.0
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
12.94 12.79 12.75 12.68 12.61 12.60 12.63 12.67 12.70
12.79 12.78 12.72 12.65 12.58 12.62 12.65 12.69 12.72
11.0 Pesos/US$ 12.0 PPP Estimate (Latest: 12.9)
13.0
14.0
15.0 Jan 06Jan 07Jan 08Jan 09Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12
22
MAJOR CURRENCIES NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR

US$ per NZ$
DECEMBER 2012
Policy: The NZ$ floats freely, but the central bank monitors its trade weighted value in setting monetary policy, with a view to keeping 'near-term' inflation anchored near 2.0%. Outlook: The NZ$ rallied late last week after the Reserve Bank declined to succumb to pressure for monetary easing and kept interest rates unchanged at 2.5%. Hawkish statements from its new governor, Mr. Graeme Wheeler, also underlined his focus on inflation, which was only 0.8% (y-o-y) in Q3 but is forecast to gradually increase over the next 6-12 months.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 4.4mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$161.6bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aaa/AA Consensus
0.835 0.818 0.813 0.798 0.766

0.90 0.85 0.80
-2.0 -2.6 -4.4 -8.2
0.847 0.840 0.890 0.843
0.793 0.780 0.740 0.689
US$ per NZ$
US$/NZ$ 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 Jan 06Jan 07Jan 08Jan 09Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12 PPP Estimate (Latest: 0.61)
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % -0.2 -2.3 1.7 1.3 Consumer Prices, % 4.0 2.1 2.3 4.0 Current Account, US$bn -11.5 -2.8 -4.6 -6.5 US$/NZ$, annual avge. 0.703 0.625 0.721 0.790 Short Term Interest Rates1 5.1 2.8 3.2 2.7 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 11.0 14.0 15.1 15.2
2012 2013 2.3 2.5 1.2 1.7 -8.8 -10.3 0.810 0.809 2.7 1 3.1 1 na na
1 90-day bank bills (%), end year. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
NORWEGIAN KRONE
Kroners per Euro
Nkr per US$
Policy: The krone exchange rate is determined on the basis of supply and demand in the FX market. Inflation targeting (currently set at 2.5%) was introduced in 2001. Outlook: Mainland GDP rose 0.7% (q-o-q) in Q3, mildly lower than the pace set in the previous two quarters. However, oil and gas production fell 7.7% (q-o-q) and when included in the total, GDP contracted 0.8%. Exports fell 3.1 per cent in Q3, while imports were up 1.1%. The Norges Bank held rates at 1.5% at its last meeting, citing low inflation, which stood at 1.1% (y-o-y) in October.
7.339 7.329 7.322 7.235 7.359

7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8
0.1 0.2 1.4 -0.3
7.067 7.000 6.900 6.800
7.500 7.500 7.500 7.727
5.678 5.699 5.737 5.752 5.864
Kroners per Euro
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
7.365 7.328 7.307 7.278 7.249 7.250 7.281 7.313 7.344
7.336 7.322 7.293 7.264 7.235 7.266 7.297 7.328 7.359
Kroners/Euro
2008 2009 2010 2011 Mainland GDP, % 1.5 -1.4 1.5 2.6 Consumer Prices, % 3.8 2.2 2.4 1.3 Current Account, US$bn 72.7 40.5 51.9 70.3 Kroners/Euro, annual avge. 8.223 8.729 8.008 7.793 Short Term Interest Rates1 3.9 2.2 2.6 2.9 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 50.2 45.6 48.9 42.5
2012 2013 3.4 2.7 0.8 1.7 70.5 67.1 7.476 7.291 1 1 1.9 2.1 na na
Jan 06Jan 07Jan 08Jan 09Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12
1 3 month Interbank (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
PERUVIAN SOL
Soles per US$
Interpolated Rates Quarter End Average Quarter % Chge Forecast Consensus from ---- Range ---of 8 F'csts Spot High Low
Policy: The Peruvian sol is allowed to float independently. Since 2001, the main objective of the central bank has been to maintain price stability. Inflation target of 2% (with a band of +/-1%). Outlook: The sol has drifted higher in recent week, driven by positive fundamentals. Peru expanded 6.5% (y-o-y) in Q3, compared with 6.1% in Q1 and Q2, and is predicted to achieve a similar rate of growth in 2013 (consensus), due to strength in internal demand. Gross fixed investment is forecast to increase 9.1% next year, from an estimated pace of 12.9% in 2012.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 29.4mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$176.6bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Baa2/BBB Consensus
2.576 2.582 2.580 2.583 2.588
-0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5
2.560 2.550 2.490 2.450
2.600 2.600 2.643 2.683
Soles per US$

2.5 2.6
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2.584 2.581 2.581 2.582 2.583 2.584 2.585 2.586 2.588
2.578 2.580 2.581 2.582 2.583 2.585 2.586 2.587 2.588
2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 Jan 06 Jan 07Jan 08 Jan 09Jan 10 Jan 11Jan 12 PPP Estimate (Latest: 3.08) Soles/US$
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 9.8 0.9 8.8 6.9 Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec, % 6.7 0.2 2.1 4.7 Current Account, US$bn -5.3 -0.7 -3.8 -3.3 Soles/US$, annual avge. 2.924 3.012 2.825 2.754 Short Term Interest Rates1 3.3 1.5 1.8 2.6 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 30.3 31.0 41.7 46.1
1
2012 2013 6.0 5.8 3.1 3.0 -5.5 -6.2 2.637 2.582 na na 60.8 65.5
180-Day Deposit Rate (%), end period.
23
DECEMBER 2012 PHILIPPINE PESO

Pesos per US$
MAJOR CURRENCIES
Policy: The peso floats independently, although there are some restrictions on currency sales in capital transactions and the central bank frequently intervenes to stabilise the exchange rate. Outlook: The peso has rallied in recent weeks, following an unexpected surge in the economy. Real GDP rose 7.1% (y-o-y) in Q3, from a revised 6.0% in Q2, as domestic demand (household consumption and government spending) offset a slowdown in exports. The consensus for 2013 GDP growth has risen to 5.3% in our latest poll, from an earlier estimate of 5.1%.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 94.9 mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$224.8bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Ba1/BB+ Consensus
40.94 40.97 40.81 40.00 40.28
-0.1 0.3 2.4 1.6
40.50 40.42 37.50 38.80
41.46 41.38 41.29 41.12
Pesos per US$

38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 PPP Estimate (Latest: 44.9) Pesos/US$
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 4.2 1.1 7.6 3.9 Consumer Prices, % 9.3 3.2 4.1 4.7 Current Account, US$bn 3.6 9.4 8.9 7.1 Pesos/US$, annual avge. 44.32 47.68 45.11 43.31 Short Term Interest Rates1 5.3 5.0 1.1 2.3 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 33.0 37.2 54.0 65.7
2012 2013 6.0 5.3 3.2 3.7 7.6 7.7 42.20 40.53 1 1 3.5 3.7 na na
1 3 month interbank rate (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
POLISH ZLOTY
Zlotys per Euro
Zl per US$
Policy: Until 2000 the zloty was pegged against a US$ and euro basket. It has since been allowed to float. Inflation targeting introduced in 1999 (currently 2.5% with a band of +/-1%). Outlook: The Polish zloty came under downward pressure in early December, as a loss of momentum in the economy raised the prospect of further monetary easing. Real GDP rose by only 1.9% (y-o-y) in Q3, down from 2.5% in Q2, while inflation fell to 3.4% in October, from 3.9% in September. The National Bank cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% late last week.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 38.3mn Nominal GDP (2011):US$514.6bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): A2/AConsensus
4.108 4.140 4.153 4.066 3.988

3.2
-0.8 -1.1 1.0 3.0
4.067 4.000 3.800 3.850
4.300 4.300 4.207 4.200
3.178 3.219 3.254 3.233 3.178
Zlotys per Euro

Zlotys/Euro 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10Jan 11 Jan 12 PPP Estimate (Latest: 4.20)
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
4.117 4.141 4.138 4.109 4.081 4.056 4.037 4.018 3.998
4.119 4.153 4.124 4.095 4.066 4.047 4.027 4.008 3.988
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 5.1 1.6 3.9 4.3 Consumer Prices, % 4.2 3.5 2.6 4.3 Current Account, US$bn -35.0 -17.2 -24.0 -25.0 Zlotys/Euro, annual avge. 3.529 4.334 3.995 4.118 Short Term Interest Rates1 5.8 3.9 3.9 4.9 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 58.9 78.6 73.4 89.7
1
2012 2013 2.3 2.0 3.8 2.7 -18.6 -18.1 4.182 4.117 4.2 1 4.0 1 na na
3 mth interbank (%), end period. Forecasts for approximately 3 and 12 months from survey date.
ROMANIAN LEU
Lei per Euro
Lei per US$
Policy: Managed float. The euro became the sole reference rate in March 2003. Exchange controls regulate the sale of foreign currency. Four zeros were dropped from the leu in July 2005. Outlook: The leu remained stable during much of November, but slipped a little in early December due to concerns about political risks and its effect on reforms and financial support from the IMF. General elections over the weekend were won by the center-left alliance of Prime Minister Victor Ponta, who is at odds with the conservative President Traian Basescu.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011)21.4 mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$189.8bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Baa3/BB+ Consensus
4.534 4.553 4.550 4.505 4.470
-0.4 -0.4 0.6 1.4
4.469 4.435 4.183 4.255
4.700 4.700 4.850 4.667
3.507 3.540 3.565 3.581 3.562
Lei per Euro

3.0 3.4 3.8 Lei/Euro 4.2 4.6 5.0 PPP Estimate (Latest: 5.21)
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 7.4 -6.6 -1.7 2.5 Consumer Prices, % 7.8 5.6 6.1 5.8 Current Account, US$bn -24.0 -6.9 -7.2 -8.5 Lei/Euro, annual avge. 3.690 4.235 4.211 4.238 Short Term Interest Rates1 15.5 10.7 6.2 6.1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 36.9 40.8 43.4 42.9
1
2012 2013 0.9 2.1 3.4 4.4 -7.6 -8.8 4.440 4.533 na na 42.5 43.4
Interbank lending rate (%), end period.

5.4 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
24
MAJOR CURRENCIES RUSSIAN ROUBLE

Roubles per US$
DECEMBER 2012
Rbl per Euro
Policy: Managed float with exchange controls. Russia introduced a basket (0.45 and US$0.55) for tracking the rouble in 2005 and now aims to keep it between a corridor of 32.45 and 37.45. Outlook: The rouble has strengthened in recent week, buoyed in part by plans to make local bond trading available to foreign investors. However, growth in the economy has slowed and a reliance on oil makes it vulnerable to external shocks. The Bank of Russia is expected to hold rates at 8.25% in the near term, as inflation rose to 6.0% (y-o-y) in Q3, from 3.9% in both Q1 and Q2.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011):142.8mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$1857.8bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Baa1/BBB Consensus
30.73 31.20 30.95 31.28 31.42
-1.5 -0.7 -1.8 -2.2
30.66 30.50 29.66 29.75
31.83 31.50 33.78 32.70
39.72 40.12 39.50 39.34 39.43
Roubles per US$

20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 PPP Estimate (Latest: 47.1) Roubles/US$
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
31.13 31.06 31.01 31.11 31.22 31.30 31.33 31.36 31.40
30.89 30.95 31.06 31.17 31.28 31.31 31.35 31.38 31.42
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 5.2 -7.8 4.3 4.3 Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec, % 13.3 8.8 8.8 6.1 Current Account, US$bn 103.5 48.6 71.1 98.8 Roubles/US$, annual avge. 24.85 31.74 30.37 29.38 13.0 8.8 7.8 8.0 Short Term Interest Rates1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 412 417 444 454
1
2012 2013 3.7 3.5 6.7 5.9 86.6 60.1 31.03 31.10 na na 486 499
Central bank refinancing rate (%).
SINGAPOREAN DOLLAR
S$ per US$
Policy: Free floating, but the S$ is monitored by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) against a trade-weighted basket. The exchange rate is the main instrument used in controlling inflation. Outlook: Early indicators suggest that the MAS will loosen monetary policy at its next bi-annual meeting in April 2013. Growth was barely above zero in year-on-year terms in Q3, hurt by the sluggish global economy and lower demand for Singaporean exports. However, the desire to stimulate output will be tempered by concerns about inflation, which was 4.0% (y-o-y) in October and could remain elevated due to food, fuel and wage increases.
1.222 1.218 1.213 1.191 1.189
0.3 0.7 2.6 2.7
1.200 1.200 1.150 1.150
1.240 1.235 1.238 1.249
S$ per US$
1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 PPP Estimate (Latest: 1.55) S$/US$
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 1.7 -1.0 14.8 4.9 Consumer Prices, % 6.6 0.6 2.8 5.2 Current Account, US$bn 27.6 34.9 55.5 57.0 1.415 1.455 1.364 1.258 S$/US$, annual avge. 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 Short Term Interest Rates1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 173.6 186.0 223.9 235.7
2012 2013 1.7 2.9 4.6 3.8 44.4 46.5 1.249 1.206 1 1 0.4 0.4 na na
1.65 Jan 06 Jan 07Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11Jan 12
1 3 month-S$ interbank (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
SOUTH AFRICAN RAND

Rands per US$
Policy: Since the abolition of the financial rand in 1995, the unified
Rand FX rate has been determined by market forces and exchange conper trols. Inflation targeting was introduced in 2000 (currently 3% to 6%). Euro Outlook: Growth fell to 1.2% (q-o-q annualised) in Q3, from 3.4% in
8.682 8.700 8.677 8.622 8.706

5.5
-0.2 0.1 0.7 -0.3
8.200 8.000 7.500 7.969
9.176 9.357 9.460 9.500
11.22 11.19 11.07 10.85 10.93
Q2, as ongoing strikes in gold and platinum mines hit industrial output. The Reserve Bank kept rates unchanged at 5.0% late last month to protect the rand from further weakness and due to concerns about inflation, which rose to 5.6% (y-o-y) in October. Some observers warn of possible stagnation in 2013.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 50.5mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$408.2bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Baa1/BBB Consensus
Rands per US$
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
8.416 8.690 8.668 8.650 8.631 8.633 8.654 8.675 8.696
8.688 8.677 8.659 8.640 8.622 8.643 8.664 8.685 8.706
6.5
Rand/US$
7.5
8.5 PPP Estimate (Latest: 8.86)
9.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 3.6 -1.5 2.9 3.1 Consumer Prices, % 11.5 7.1 4.3 5.0 Current Account, US$bn -19.6 -11.5 -10.2 -13.6 Rand/US$, annual avge. 8.261 8.474 7.321 7.261 Short Term Interest Rates1 10.8 7.1 5.6 5.6 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 30.2 32.4 35.4 39.8
1
2012 2013 2.5 2.9 5.7 5.8 -22.9 -24.5 8.081 8.660 na na na na
10.5 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10Jan 11 Jan 12
3 month T-bills (%), end period.
25
DECEMBER 2012 SOUTH KOREAN WON

Won per US$
MAJOR CURRENCIES
Policy: Until late-1997, the exchange rate was allowed to fluctuate in a +/-10% band around the weighted average US$ exchange rate from the previous day's trading. The won now floats freely. Outlook: The advance in the won slowed in November, as the Bank of Korea bought US dollars and warned of further action to halt a loss of competitiveness, especially in relation to the Japanese yen. Growth was revised down to 0.1% (q-o-q) in Q3, from 0.3% in Q2, and the new president (to be elected on December 19) may be concerned by the uptrend in the currency.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 48.4mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$1116.2bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aa3/A+ Consensus
Interpolated Rates Quarter End Average Quarter 1092 1081 2012 Q4 1082 1080 2013 Q1 1075 1070 Q2 1065 1060 Q3 1055 1050 Q4 1047 1044 2014 Q1 1041 1038 Q2 1035 1032 Q3 1029 1026 Q4
850 950 1050 1150 1250 1350 1450 1550
1079 1084 1080 1050 1026
-0.4 0.0 2.8 5.2
1065 1050 1000 947
1103 1100 1150 1116
Won per US$

PPP Estimate (Latest: 1038)
Won/US$
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 2.3 0.3 6.3 3.6 Consumer Prices, % 4.7 2.8 3.0 4.0 Current Account, US$bn 3.2 32.8 29.4 26.5 Won/US$, annual avge. 1102 1277 1156 1108 Short Term Interest Rates1 3.9 2.9 2.8 3.6 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 200.5 265.2 286.9 298.2
1
2012 2013 2.2 3.2 2.3 2.6 35.0 28.7 1126 1069 2.8 1 3.0 1 na na
91-day CDs (%), end year. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
Jan 06Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09Jan 10Jan 11 Jan 12
SWEDISH KRONA
Kronas per Euro
Skr per US$
Policy: The Swedish krona floats independently. Primary focus of monetary policy is the inflation target (introduced in 1993 and currently set at 2.0%). Outlook: The krona drifted lower in November, as the slowdown in the Swedish economy deepened. Real GDP rose 0.7% (y-o-y) and 0.5% (q-o-q) in Q3, below the readings in Q2, while early indicators for Q4 suggest further weakness in the export-dependent nation. The manufacturing PMI index rose a little to 43.2 in November, but remains deep in negative territory.
8.659 8.542 8.546 8.400 8.496

8.0 8.5
1.4 1.3 3.1 1.9
8.100 8.100 7.500 8.000
8.843 9.005 9.000 9.000
6.699 6.642 6.696 6.678 6.770
Kronas per Euro
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
8.621 8.556 8.522 8.473 8.424 8.412 8.436 8.460 8.484
8.620 8.546 8.498 8.449 8.400 8.424 8.448 8.472 8.496
PPP Estimate (Latest: 8.81) 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 Kronas/Euro 11.0 11.5 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % -0.8 -5.0 6.3 3.8 Consumer Prices, % 3.5 -0.3 1.3 2.6 Current Account, US$bn 44.2 27.2 31.7 38.4 Krona/Euro, annual avge. 9.616 10.62 9.55 9.028 Short Term Interest Rates1 2.4 0.5 2.0 2.6 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 25.1 39.9 42.9 38.9
2012 2013 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.7 34.6 35.4 8.704 8.494 1.4 1 1.5 1 na na
1 3 mth Interbank (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
SWISS FRANC
Francs per Euro
Swfr per US$
Policy: Until August 2011, the Swiss franc had floated independently. In September 2011, the National Bank introduced a ceiling on currency appreciation set at Sfr1.20 per euro (see graph). Outlook: The move to negative deposit rates sent the Swiss franc below Sfr1.21 per euro late November. However, it strengthened last week, due to risk aversion and global uncertainties. The National Bank reiterated last month that it was prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities to defend the ceiling and protect the Swiss industry from a loss of competitiveness.
1.207 1.207 1.212 1.223 1.237

1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50
-0.1 -0.4 -1.3 -2.5
1.192 1.200 1.150 1.150
1.240 1.250 1.300 1.350
0.934 0.939 0.949 0.972 0.986
Francs per Euro

(ceiling)
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1.207 1.209 1.213 1.217 1.221 1.224 1.228 1.232 1.235
1.207 1.212 1.215 1.219 1.223 1.226 1.230 1.234 1.237
Francs/Euro 1.60 1.70 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 2.2 -1.9 3.0 1.9 Consumer Prices, % 2.6 -0.5 0.7 0.2 Current Account, US$bn 10.9 53.8 78.5 69.2 Francs/Euro, annual avge. 1.587 1.511 1.382 1.234 Short Term Interest Rates1 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 44.2 96.6 98.2 271.1
2012 2013 0.9 1.1 -0.6 0.2 75.5 74.5 1.205 1.215 0.01 0.11 na na
1 3 month Euro-Swiss franc deposits (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
26
MAJOR CURRENCIES TAIWANESE DOLLAR

T$ per US$
DECEMBER 2012
Policy: Managed float. The central bank has intervened, sometimes heavily, in order to smooth fluctuations in the T$. A ban on foreign time deposits was introduced in November 2009. Outlook: Constrained by profit-taking and fear of FX intervention, the appreciation in the T$ has levelled-off in recent months. The year-long slowdown in the export-oriented economy passed a trough in Q3 as it expanded only 1.0% (y-o-y). However, the outlook for the US and Europe remain uncertain and stability in the currency will be important for the recovery in 2013.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 23.2mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$467.8bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aa3/AAConsensus
29.08 29.14 29.05 28.77 28.52

28 29 30 31
-0.2 0.1 1.1 2.0
28.50 28.50 28.00 28.00
30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00
T$ per US$
T$/US$ 32 33 34 35 36 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 0.7 -1.8 10.8 4.1 Consumer Prices, % 3.5 -0.9 1.0 1.4 Current Account, US$bn 27.5 42.9 39.9 41.6 T$/US$, annual avge. 31.52 33.03 31.49 29.38 Short Term Interest Rates1 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 291.7 348.2 379.3 385.6
2012 2013 1.1 3.4 2.0 1.8 42.4 42.0 29.58 28.95 0.9 1 1.1 1 na na
1 91-day commercial paper (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
THAI BAHT
Baht per US$
Policy: Managed float with intervention as required. The central bank adopted an inflation targeting framework in 2000 (current target of between 0.5% - 3.0%). Outlook: See pages 10 and 11.
30.68 30.67 30.54 29.93 29.63
0.0 0.4 2.5 3.5
30.15 30.00 27.00 27.00
31.50 31.50 31.53 30.50

Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 69.5mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$345.6bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P):Baa1/BBB+ Consensus
Baht per US$

29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 Jan 06Jan 07 Jan 08Jan 09Jan 10 Jan 11Jan 12 PPP Estimate (Latest: 40.8) Baht/US$
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
30.69 30.63 30.44 30.23 30.03 29.89 29.82 29.74 29.67
30.68 30.54 30.34 30.13 29.93 29.85 29.78 29.71 29.63
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 2.5 -2.3 7.8 0.1 Consumer Prices, % 5.5 -0.8 3.3 3.8 Current Account, US$bn 2.2 21.9 10.0 5.9 Baht/US$, annual avge. 33.31 34.29 31.69 30.49 Short Term Interest Rates1 3.0 1.4 2.2 3.2 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 108.3 133.6 165.7 165.2
2012 2013 5.4 4.4 3.0 3.4 0.3 2.5 31.07 30.33 3.0 1 3.2 1 na na
1 3 month interbank (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
TURKISH LIRA
Lira per US$
Lira per Euro
Policy: The crawling peg regime was abandoned in 2001, causing a sharp devaluation of the lira. The currency now floats independently. Six zeroes were dropped from the lira in January 2005. Outlook: The lira has remained between 1.76/US$ and 1.81/US$, but is susceptible to geo-political risks and financial shocks, due to a large Turkish current account deficit. Inflation, measured by CPI, fell to 6.37% (y-o-y) in November, from more than 10% earlier in 2012. The monetary policy council voted for another reduction in the lending rate to 9.0% last month.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 73.6mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$773.1bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Ba1/BB Consensus Real GDP, % Consumer Prices, % Current Account, US$bn Lira/US$, annual avge. Short Term Interest Rates1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn
1.790 1.793 1.794 1.801 1.827
-0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -2.1
1.750 1.730 1.700 1.678
1.826 1.900 1.900 1.944
2.313 2.306 2.290 2.265 2.293
Interpolated Rates Quarter End 1.10 Average Quarter
Lira per US$
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1.795 1.793 1.795 1.797 1.800 1.804 1.811 1.817 1.824
1.791 1.794 1.796 1.799 1.801 1.807 1.814 1.821 1.827
1.30 Lira/US$ 1.50
1.70 PPP Estimate (Latest: 1.87)
1.90
2008 2009 2010 2011 0.7 -4.8 9.2 8.5 10.4 6.3 8.6 6.5 -42.0 -13.4 -46.6 -77.0 1.302 1.550 1.503 1.675 15.0 6.5 1.5 5.0 70.2 69.2 79.0 76.7
2012 2013 2.9 4.0 9.0 7.1 -55.4 -58.9 1.800 1.796 6.41 6.41 na na
1 Overnight interbank rate (%), end period. Forecasts for approximately 3 and 12 months from survey date.
27
DECEMBER 2012
MAJOR CURRENCIES
Policy: Closely managed against the US$ with exchange controls to discourage sharp movements. Outlook: The downtrend in the hryvnia was briefly broken in midNovember, but the currency ended the month at levels close to those at the start. Political and economic uncertainty has increased after the Prime Minister Mr. Mykola Azarov and his cabinet resigned from office on December 3. Some commentators suggest that it was due to its failure to secure a new IMF loan and/or a discount on Russian gas supplies. Real GDP contracted 1.3% (y-o-y) in Q3.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 45.2mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$165.2bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): B3/B Consensus
UKRAINIAN HRYVNIA
Hryvnia per US$
Hrv per Euro
8.125 8.480 -4.2 7.993 8.762 -7.3 7.993 9.319 -12.8 8.450 9.218 -11.9 8.500
4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5
9.900 10.00 11.00 10.00
10.50 10.91 11.18 11.72 11.57
Hryvnia per US$
Hryvnias/US$
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 2.3 -14.8 4.1 5.2 Consumer Prices, % 25.2 15.9 9.4 8.0 Current Account, US$bn -12.8 -1.7 -3.0 -10.2 Hryvnia/US$, annual avge. 5.267 7.791 7.936 7.968 12.0 10.3 7.8 7.8 Short Term Interest Rates1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 30.8 25.6 33.3 30.4
1
2012 2013 0.8 2.3 1.0 7.5 -11.6 -8.5 8.085 8.910 na na 24.3 24.5
Discount rate (%), end period.
UNITED KINGDOM POUND

US$ per UK
UK per Outlook: The UK pound rose to US$1.61 in late November a oneEuro month high buoyed in part by weakness in the dollar and news that
Policy: The UK left the EU Exchange Rate Mechanism in September 1992. Sterling now floats independently. Inflation target of 2.0%.
1.608 1.597 1.588 1.578 1.574

2.10
-0.7 -1.2 -1.8 -2.1
1.641 1.666 1.696 1.786
1.449 1.445 1.389 1.251
0.804 0.805 0.804 0.797 0.797
the UK economy grew by 1.0% (q-o-q) in Q3. However, early indicators suggests that Q4 could disappoint. In his autumn statement, the Chancellor also admitted that it would take longer for the government to curb national debt. Credit ratings agencies have warned that the UK is at risk of losing its coveted 'AAA' status.
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 62.4mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$2417.6bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aaa/AAA Consensus Real GDP, % Consumer Prices, % Current Account, US$bn US$/Pound, annual avge. Short Term Interest Rates1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$
US$ per UK
US$/Pound 2.00 1.90 1.80 1.70 1.60 1.50 1.40 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 PPP Estimate (Latest: 1.70)
2008 2009 2010 2011 -1.0 -4.0 1.8 0.9 3.6 2.2 3.3 4.5 -26.7 -27.7 -57.6 -46.5 1.853 1.565 1.546 1.604 2.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 41.6 38.0 49.3 56.2
2012 2013 -0.1 1.1 2.8 2.5 -86.0 -63.1 1.584 1.586 0.7 1 0.7 1 na na
1 3 mth interbank (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
VENEZUELAN BOLIVAR
Bolivars per US$
% Chge Consensus from of 8 F'csts Spot Forecast ---- Range ---High Low
4.295 5.108 6.078 6.196 6.916

1.50
Policy: In 2003, FX trading was closed and draconian controls were imposed. The bolivar has since suffered a series of devaluations under a pegged system. A two-tiered FX regime was introduced in 2010 in a bid to support US$ oil earnings and curb inflation. In January 2011, an anemic economy forced the government to eliminate the stronger rate of V2.6/US$ and leave the other unchanged at V4.3. Outlook: In our special survey of currency risk assessments, the probability attached to a devaluation of the bolivar of 20% or more in 2013 was 49.0% (see pages 34 and 35).
Data & Forecasts Population (mid-2011): 29.4mn Nominal GDP (2011): US$315.9bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): B2/B+ Consensus
-15.9 -29.3 -30.7 -37.9
4.300 5.150 5.150 6.359
6.500 7.500 7.500 7.800
Bolivars per US$

Bolivars/US$ (official rate) 2.50 PPP Estimate (Latest: 5.83)
2012 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
4.363 5.325 6.098 6.137 6.176 6.285 6.465 6.645 6.825
4.566 6.078 6.118 6.157 6.196 6.376 6.556 6.736 6.916
3.50
4.50
5.50
US$1 reportedly bought Bs15.1 in the black market in early December 2012.
2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP, % 5.3 -3.2 -1.5 4.2 Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec,% 31.9 26.9 27.4 29.0 Current Account, US$bn 34.1 6.0 12.1 24.6 Bolivars/US$, annual avge. 2.147 2.147 2.582 4.289 Short Term Interest Rates1 17.3 15.4 14.6 14.5 32.6 17.7 9.2 6.0 FX Reserves, end yr, US$
1
2012 2013 5.2 1.4 19.1 27.6 21.3 22.3 4.308 5.923 14.5 1 14.5 1 15.7 16.7
30 Day Deposits, annualised, %, end period. Forecasts for approximately 3 and 12 months from survey date.
28
ADDITIONAL CURRENCIES
Albania Lek (per Euro)
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 2.9 Leks / Euro, % chge -2.3 Current Account, US$bn -1.4 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 2.2 3.4 120 -0.1 125 -1.6 130 2.3
135 140 145
DECEMBER 2012
Bolivian Boliviano
average 2006-2010 Inflation, Dec/Dec, % 7.2 Bolivianos/ US$ (% chge) 2.7 Current Account, US$bn 1.3 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 5.8 6.1 1.2 0.5 9.6
6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 2011 139.7 3 mth 139.2 12 m th 138.4

Leks/Euro
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 2011 6.910 3 mth 6.932 12 m th 6.952 24 m th 7.070
24 m th 136.7
Bolivianos/US
PPP Estimate
PPP Estimate
Policy: Independent float. Occasional intervention to smooth excessive FX fluctuations.
(M/S&P): B1/B+
Policy: The boliviano has been pegged at 6.97 to 7.07 per US$ since October 2008. Capital controls.
(M/S&P): Ba3/BB-- Consensus Forecasts --
Algerian Dinar
average 2006-2010 4.5 Inflation, % Dinars / US$, % chge -1.0 Current Account, US$bn 21.1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 127.8 4.5 -1.5 na 180.6
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 2011 78.60

60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Botswanan Pula
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 9.3 Pula / US$, % chge -1.3 Current Account, US$bn 0.9 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 8.6 8.5 -14.4 na 7.9
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5
3 mth 78.63
12 m th 79.90
Dinars/US$
24 m th 81.80
Spot 2011 7.890
3 m th 8.069
12 m th 8.409
24 m th 8.390
Pulas/US$
Policy: Managed float against a currency basket. Rate determined by interbank transactions.
PPP Estimate
Policy: Pegged to a currency basket comprising South African rand (70%) and SDR (30%). (M/S&P): A2/A-
PPP Estimate
Angolan Kwanza
average 2006-2010 13.2 Inflation, % -2.8 Kwanza / US$, % chge Current Account, US$bn 5.7 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 14.0
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 2011 95.79 3 m th 99.11 12 m th 107.4 24 m th 125.6
Bulgarian Lev (per Euro)

average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 6.7 Lev / Euro, % chge 0.0 Current Account, US$bn -6.8 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 14.9 4.2 0.0 0.6 14.3
1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7
13.5 -2.8 na 27.0
60 80 100 120 140 160 180

(M/S&P): Baa2/BBB
Lev/Euro
Kwanza/US$ PPP Estimate
Policy: Managed float. The kwanza has been largely stable since 2003. Oil-dependent economy.
(M/S&P): Ba3/BB-
Policy: Pegged at Lev1.95583 = 1. The government appears to be in no hurry to adopt the euro.
PPP Estimate
Azerbaijani Manat
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 10.6 Manat / US$, % chge 1.8 Current Account, US$bn 10.9 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 4.9 8.9 1.4 17.1 10.0
Spot 2011 0.784

0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
-- Consensus Forecasts -- Costa Rican Colon 3 mth 12 m th 24 m th average 0.788 0.788 0.788 2006-2010 Inflation, Dec,Dec, % 8.8 Colons / US$, % chge 0.2 Manats/US$ Current Account, US$bn -1.5 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 3.8
PPP Estimate
4.8 0.2 -2.2 4.5
450 Colones/US$ 500 550 600 650 700

Policy: Managed float. Oil-dependent economy. Vulnerable to drop in FX inflows. (M/S&P): Baa3/BBB-
Policy: Crawling peg. FX transactions are subject to a 25% tax. (M/S&P): Baa3/BB
PPP Estimate
Bahrain Dinar
average 0.32 2006-2010 2011 0.34 PPP Estimate Inflation, % 1.3 -0.3 Dinars / US$, % chge -0.1 0.0 0.36 Current Account, US$bn 1.7 3.2 0.38 Dinars/US$ FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 3.8 4.2 Policy: Fixed at Bdr0.376 = US$1. 0.40 (M/S&P): Baa1/BBB Plans for monetary union with other 0.42 GCC members. Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
Croatian Kuna (per Euro)

average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 3.1 Kuna / Euro, % chge -0.3 Current Account, US$bn -3.5 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 13.2 2011 2.3 -1.2 -0.4 14.0
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 7.531

7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8
3 m th 7.543
12 m th 7.537
24 m th 7.470
Kunas/Euro
Policy: Managed float. Croatia is set to join the EU in July 2013. Border dispute with Slovenia.
(M/S&P): Baa3/BBB-
PPP Estimate
Bangladesh Taka
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 7.7 Taka / US$, % chge -0.4 Current Account, US$bn 1.7 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 6.8 10.7 -13.9 0.2 7.8
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Spot 2011 80.93
-- Consensus Forecasts -- Dominican Republic Peso -- Consensus Forecasts -3 mth 12 m th 24 m th average Spot 3 mth 12 m th 24 m th 83.51 85.58 90.10 39.97 40.42 40.85 2006-2010 2011 40.10 Inflation, Dec/Dec % 6.1 7.8 30.0 Takas/US$ Pesos / US$, % chge -2.4 -2.2 33.0 Current Account, US$bn -2.9 -4.5 36.0 Pesos/US$ PPP Estimate FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 3.0 4.1
39.0 42.0 45.0
Policy: Managed float with a preannounced exchange rate path since June 2003.
(M/S&P):Ba3/BB-- Consensus Forecasts --
Policy: Managed float. Country has high external funding requirements. (M/S&P): B1/B+
PPP Estimate
Belarussian Rouble
Ecuadorian Sucre
average 2006-2010 Inflation, Dec/Dec, % 4.3 Sucres / US$, % chge 0.0 Current Account, US$bn 0.8 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 2.4 5.5 0.0 -0.3 1.6
average 2006-2010 10.1 Inflation, % -6.5 Rouble / US$, % chge Current Account, US$bn -4.8 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 3.0

24000 25000 26000 27000 28000 PPP Estimate 29000 30000
2011 52.3 -64.1 -5.7 5.4
Spot 8620
2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
3 mth 9250
PPP Estimate
12 mth 10300
24 mth 11800
3 mth 1.000
12 m th 1.000
24 m th 1.000
Rouble/US$
Sucres/US$
Policy: Sharp devaluation in May 2011. Government is seeking financial aid from the IMF and Moscow.
(M/S&P): B3/B-
Policy: The sucre was abandoned and replaced by the US$ at US$1 = Suc25,000 in 2000. (M/S&P): Caa1/B
29
DECEMBER 2012
Egyptian Pound
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 11.7 E/ US$, % chge -0.3 Current Account, US$bn -1.2 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 30.0 10.1 -3.7 na 13.7
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5
-- Consensus Forecasts --
Honduran Lempira
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 6.8 Lempira / US$, % chge 0.0 Current Account, US$bn -1.0 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 2.4
-- Consensus Forecasts* -Spot 2011 19.85 3 m th 19.89 12 mth 20.35 24 mth 20.96
18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.0
Spot 2011 6.144
3 m th 6.170
12 m th 6.294
24 m th 6.550
Pounds/US$
6.7 0.0 -1.5 2.6
Lempiras/US$
Policy: US$ linked band abolished in 2003. Managed float with exchange controls. (M/S&P): B2/B
PPP Estimate
Policy: Crawling peg until 2006. Lempira now trades in a narrow currency band. (M/S&P): B2/B+
PPP Estimate
El Salvadorian Colon
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 3.5 0.0 Colones / US$, % chge Current Account, US$bn -0.9 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 2.2 5.1 0.0 -1.2 1.9
8.6 8.8
-- Consensus Forecasts* -Spot 2011 8.748 3 m th 8.749 12 mth 8.749 24 mth 8.749
Icelandic Krona
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 8.4 Krona / US$, % chge -9.0 Current Account, US$bn -2.8 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 3.5 4.0 -6.2 -1.0 7.7
55 75 95 115 135 155
Colones/US$ PPP Estimate
9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6

PPP Estimate
Policy: Colon was replaced by the US$ as the official currency in 2001 at Cs8.75=US$1. (M/S&P): Ba3/BB-
Policy: Independent float. Krona has stabilised, following crisis in 2008. (M/S&P): Baa3/BBB-
Kronas/US$
Georgian Lari
average 2006-2010 7.5 Inflation, % -0.7 Laris/ US$, % chge Current Account, US$bn -1.8 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 1.5
-- Consensus Forecasts* --
2011 8.7 6.1 -1.8 2.6
Spot 1.663
1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2
3 m th 1.667
12 mth 1.682
24 mth 1.719
Lari/US$
Iranian Rial
average 2006-2010 2011 Inflation, % 15.7 20.6 Rials/ US$, % chge -2.1 -3.2 Current Account, US$bn 22.5 na FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 78.4 na Policy: Managed float with exchange controls. Rial has dipped amid US economic sanctions.
7000 9500 12000 14500 17000 19500 22000

Rials/US$
PPP Estimate
Policy: Managed float. Lari replaced Russian rouble in 1993. Inflation target of 6% for 2012-2014.
PPP Estimate
(M/S&P): Ba3/BB-
US$1 reportedly bought almost 35,000 rial in the black market in October 2012.
Ghanaian Cedi
average 2006-2010 Inflation,% 13.6 Cedis / US$, % change -8.9 Current Account, US$bn -2.2 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 2.6 2011 8.7 -4.9 na 5.1
0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 1.891 3 mth 1.920 12 m th 1.958 24 m th 2.062
Ivory Coast (CFA Franc)

average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 2.7 CFA francs / Euro, % chge 0.0 Current Account, US$bn 0.6 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 2.5 4.5 0.0 na 3.9
640 650 660 670 680 690 700 710
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 2011 656.0 3 m th 656.0 12 m th 656.0 24 m th 656.0
CFA francs/Euro
PPP Estimate
Cedis/US$
Policy: Managed float. Exchange restrictions. Four zeros dropped from Cedi in 2007. (S&P): B
Policy: Pegged at CFA franc 655.957 per euro. Also used in other former French African colonies.
PPP Estimate
J an 06 J an 07 J an 08 J an 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 J an 12
Guatemalan Quetzal
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 7.1 Quetzals / US$, % chge -1.0 Current Account, US$bn -1.2 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 4.5 2011 5.5 2.7 -1.5 5.6
Spot 7.837
7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5
-- Consensus Forecasts* -- Jamaican Dollar

3 mth 7.892 12 m th 7.954 24 m th 8.091
Quetzals/US$
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 12.5 J$ / US$, % chge -4.8 Current Account, US$bn -1.6 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 2.0
60
2011 7.5 -0.9 na 2.0
70 80 90 100 PPP Estimate 110 120

J$/US$
Policy: Managed float. Rate determined by transactions in the interbank market. (M/S&P): Ba1/BB
PPP Estimate
Policy: Managed float. Rates largely market-determined. (M/S&P): B3/B-
Guyanese Dollar
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 6.4 G$ / US$, % chge -0.2 Current Account, US$bn -0.2 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 0.5
195
Jordanian Dinar
G$/US$
2011 5.0 -0.1 na 0.8
205 215 225 235 245

PPP Estimate
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 6.2 Dinars / US$, % chge 0.0 Current Account, US$bn -2.0 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 9.4
2011 4.4 0.0 -2.9 11.2
Spot 0.710
0.64 0.68 0.72 0.76 0.80 0.84 0.88
3 mth 0.709
12 m th 0.709
24 m th 0.709
Dinars/US$
Policy: Managed float. Guyana is a recipient of an IMF ESAF grant. Black market rates.
Policy: Effectively pegged to the US$ since late 1995. (M/S&P): BA2/BB
PPP Estimate
Haitian Gourde
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 8.6 Gourdes / US$, % chge -1.2 Current Account, US$bn -0.9 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 0.6 2011 8.4 -2.7 na 1.1
32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64
Kazakhstani Tenge
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 10.2 Tenge / US$, % chge -2.9 Current Account, US$bn -1.1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 19.3 2011 8.4 -0.6 14.1 24.6
115 135 155 175 195 215

Tenge/US$
Gourdes/US$
PPP Estimate
Policy: Managed float with no predetermined path for the exchange rate.
PPP Estimate
Policy: De facto currency peg. 18% devaluation in the tenge in February 2009. (M/S&P): Baa2/BBB+
* Forecasts approximately for 3, 12 and 24 months from survey date
30
Kenyan Shilling
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 12.8 -3.0 Shillings / US$, % chge Current Account, US$bn -1.5 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 3.2 14.0 -5.1 na 4.2
50 70 90 110 130 150
DECEMBER 2012
Malawian Kwacha
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 9.3 Kwacha / US$, % chge -1.6 Current Account, US$bn -0.6 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 0.2
110
Shillings/US$
2011 7.6 -7.9 -0.8 0.2
160 210 260 310 360

Policy: Managed float. Dependence on agriculture and tourism. (M/S&P): B1/B+
PPP Estimate
Policy: Prior to its devaluation and shift to a free float regime in April 2012, the kwacha was heavily managed.
Kwachas/US$
Kuwaiti Dinar
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 5.4 0.6 Dinars / US$, % chge Current Account, US$bn 41.9 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 16.3
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 2011 0.282 3 mth 0.286 12 m th 0.291

Dinars/US$ 0.28 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.36
24 m th 0.290
Moroccan Dirham
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 2.2 Dirham / US$, % chge 0.2 Current Account, US$bn -2.8 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 22.0 0.9 -2.6 -8.3 18.8
7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0
4.8 0.7 na 22.9
0.26
Dirham/US$
Policy: Pegged to undisclosed currency basket. Plans for monetary union with other GCC members.
(M/S&P): Aa2/AA
PPP Estimate
Policy: Pegged to currency basket weighted according to principal trading partners. (M/S&P): Ba1/BBB-
PPP Estimate
Laos Kip
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 5.0 Kip / US$, % chge 3.8 Current Account, US$bn 0.1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 0.6
7500
Myanmarian Kyat
2011 7.6 1.0 na na
8500 9500 10500 11500 PPP Estimate 12500 13500
Kips/US$
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 18.3 Kyat / US$, % chge 0.5 Current Account, US$bn 1.3 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 3.8
2011 200 5.1 300 -0.6 400 na 500 7.0 600

700 800 900
100
Under a new FX system, the kyat was set at K818/US$ on April 1, 2012, closer to the previously prevailing black market rates.
Policy: Managed float. Kip is permitted to move within assigned ranges against the US$ and Thai baht.
Policy: The 35-year pegged exchange rate system was scrapped on April 1, 2012 in favour of a managed float.
Kyat/US$
Latvian Lat (per Euro)

average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 6.9 Lats/euro, % chge -0.2 Current Account, US$bn -3.4 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 5.7
Spot 2011 0.696
4.4 1.5 -0.4 5.9
0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90
Policy: ERM-II adopted in May 2005. Limits of +/-15% around a central rate of L0.702804/. Risk of devaluation.
-- Consensus Forecasts* --- Consensus Forecasts -- Nicaraguan Cordoba Spot 3 mth 12 m th 24 m th 3 mth 12 m th 24 m th average 24.06 24.39 24.95 26.06 0.697 0.697 0.697 2006-2010 2011 16.0 Inflation, % 9.9 8.1 Lats/Euro Cordobas / US$, % chge -3.8 -4.8 18.0 Current Account, US$bn -1.1 -1.3 20.0 Cordobas/US$ FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 1.2 1.7 22.0 PPP Estimate (M/S&P): Policy: Crawling peg. 5% annual de- 24.0 PPP Estimate (Moody's): B3 Baa3/BBB preciation against the US$. No significant exchange or capital controls.
26.0
Lebanese Pound
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 5.0 L/ US$, % chge 0.0 Current Account, US$bn -4.2 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 21.2 5.1 0.0 na 33.4
1460 1500 1540 1580 1620 1660 1700
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 2011 1506 3 mth 1505 12 m th 1505 24 m th 1505
Nigerian Naira
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 10.1 Naira / US$, % chge -3.2 Current Account, US$bn 24.1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 44.3 2011 10.9 -4.8 8.7 32.6
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 157.1

110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250
3 mth 159.5
12 m th 160.2
24 m th 163.1
Naira/US$
Pounds/US$
PPP Estimate
Policy: Managed exchange rate. Interest rates are set at levels to spur capital inflows. (M/S&P): B1/B
PPP Estimate
Policy: Managed float. FX Controls. Exchange rate adjusted to meet policy objectives. (M/S&P): Ba3/BB-
Libyan Dinar
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 4.6 Dinars / US$, % chge 0.5 Current Account, US$bn 22.5 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 83.9
1.10
Oman Rial
PPP Estimate
2011 1.15 na 1.20 -0.3 na 1.25 97.1 1.30

1.35 1.40
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 5.3 Rials/US$, % chge 0.0 Current Account, US$bn 3.7 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 10.1
0.35
2011 4.1 0.0 10.3 14.0
0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44

PPP Estimate
Rials/US$
Policy: Offical exchange rate pegged at Ld1 = SDR 0.5175, with a 25% margin of fluctuation.
Dinars/US$
Policy: Pegged at Rials 2.6008 = US$1. Problems with inflation in 2008. (M/S&P): A1/A
Lithuanian Litas (per Euro)

average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 5.3 Litas / euro, % chge 0.0 Current Account, US$bn -2.6 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 6.4 4.1 0.1 -0.6 7.7

3.00 3.30 3.60 3.90 4.20 4.50
Pakistani Rupee
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 12.7 Rupees / US$, % chge -6.6 Current Account, US$bn -7.2 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 11.0 2011 12.2 -4.7 -2.2 13.5
55 65 75 85 95
3 mth 3.452
12 m th 3.452
24 m th 3.452
(M/S&P): Baa1/BBB
Litas/Euro PPP Estimate
Rupees/US$
Policy: ERM-II adopted. Pegged at Ltl3.4528 per euro. Euro adoption likely to be delayed to 2015 or later.
Policy: Managed float. Transactions in the interbank market. Border disputes with India. (M/S&P): Caa1/B-
105 115 125

PPP Estimate
* Forecasts approximately for 3, 12 and 24 months from survey date
31
DECEMBER 2012
Paraguayan Guarani
average 2006-2010 Inflation, Dec/Dec % 7.5 Guarani / US$, % chge 5.8 Current Account, US$bn 0.0 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 2.3 2011 7.2 0.8 -0.7 3.9
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 4300
3500 4500 5500 6500 7500
Tunisian Dinar
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 4.2 -2.0 Dinars / US$, % chge Current Account, US$bn -1.3 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 8.6
3 mth 4591 12 m th 4762
Guaranis/US$
24 m th 4649
1.1
PPP Estimate
2011 1.2 3.5 1.3 -4.1 na 1.4 na 1.5

1.6 1.7
Dinars/US$
PPP Estimate
Policy: Managed float. Central bank will intervene to smooth out fluctations in the currency. (M/S&P): B1/BB-
Policy: Managed float. Rate determined in the interbank market. (M/S&P): Baa3/BB
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 3 m th 12 m th 24 m th average 3.750 3.750 3.750 2006-2010 2011 3.750 Inflation, % 5.3 4.9 3.4 Riyals/ US$, % chge 0.0 0.0 3.6 Riyals/US$ Current Account, US$bn 82.5 158.5 3.8 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn359.5 525.5 4.0 PPP Estimate Policy: Pegged at riyals 3.745 = US$1. 4.2 Plans for monetary union with other 4.4 GCC members. (M/S&P): Aa3/AAJan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
Saudi Arabian Riyal
UAE Dirham
average 2006-2010 7.0 Inflation, % 0.0 Dirhams / US$, % chge Current Account, US$bn -44.4 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 38.6
3.50
2011 3.55 0.9 3.60 0.0 na 3.65 36.1 3.70

3.75 3.80
PPP Estim ate
Dirhams/US$
Policy: Pegged at D3.67275 = US$1. Plans for monetary union with other GCC members. (Moody's): Aa2
Serbian Dinar (per Euro)

average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 9.0 Dinars / Euro, % chge -5.7 Current Account, US$bn -5.6 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 12.8
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 2011 114.2 3 mth 115.0 12 mth 112.0 24 mth 112.0
30 50 70 90 110 130
Ugandan Shilling
average 2006-2010 8.5 Inflation, % Shillings / US$, % chge -5.5 Current Account, US$bn -1.1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 2.4 2011 18.6 -7.3 -2.3 2.4
1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 2695 3 mth 2619 12 m th 2761 24 m th 2872
11.3 1.2 -4.4 14.9
PPP Estimate
Shillings/US$
PPP Estimate
Policy: Managed float. Serbia proclaimed independence in 2006. (S&P): BB-
Dinars/Euro
Policy: Independent float. Rate determined in the interbank market. (S&P): B+
Sri Lankan Rupee

average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 11.6 Rupees / US$, % chge -0.6 Current Account, US$bn -1.7 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 3.9 2011 7.1 -2.6 -4.7 6.2
95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 128.8 3 m th 131.2 12 m th 132.2 24 m th 136.5
Uruguayan Peso
average 2006-2010 Inflation, Dec/Dec % 7.4 New Pesos/US$, % chge 4.0 Current Account, US$bn -0.6 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 5.7 2011 8.1 1.0 -0.9 9.8
15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
Rupees/US$
Pesos/US$
Policy: Independent float. Some FX controls were imposed on forward contracts in 2008. (M/S&P): B1/B+
PPP Estimate
Policy: Independent float after crawling peg was abandoned in 2002. (M/S&P): Baa3/BBB-
PPP Estimate
Sudanese Pound
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 10.8 Pounds / US$, % chge -4.1 Current Account, US$bn -2.6 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 1.2
1.8
Vietnamese Dong
2011 na -7.3 na na
2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.8
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 2011 20840 3 mth 20983 12 m th 21342 24 m th 21779
Pounds/US$
PPP Estimate
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 11.0 Dong / US$, % chge -3.2 Current Account, US$bn -5.8 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 17.8
18.6 -9.1 0.2 13.1
14500 16500 18500 20500 22500 24500 26500 28500

Dong/US$
Policy: Managed float. Devalued to 4.4/US$ in July 2012 to bring it closer to its black market rate.
Policy: Managed float. Currency was devalued by 7.0% in February 2011. Black market rates.
(M/S&P): PPP Estimate B2/BB-
Syrian Pound
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 7.4 S/ US$, % chge 1.7 Current Account, US$bn 0.1 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 17.3
40
US$ peg dropped in July 2007 in favour of SDR link.

Syrian Pound/US$
Yemeni Rial
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 10.9 Rials / US$, % chge -1.5 Current Account, US$bn -1.4 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 7.1 2011 16.4 0.0 -1.7 4.2
190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270

2011 4.7 -13.1 na na
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Rials/US$
PPP Estimate
Policy: Managed float with capital controls. Currency has plummeted since late 2011 due to internal war.
Black market rate was around SYP90/US$ in Dcember 2012.
Policy: Independent float. Rial tumbled in first half of 2010 due to concerns about internal security.
PPP Estimate
Tanzanian Shilling
average 2006-2010 Inflation, % 8.6 Shillings / US$, % chge -2.8 Current Account, US$bn -2.5 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 3.0 2011 12.7 -7.4 -4.6 3.5
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot 1602

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900
3 m th 1615
12 m th 1666
24 m th 1756
Zambian Kwacha
Shillings/US$ PPP Estimate
average 2006-2010 10.8 Inflation, % Kwachas / US$, % chge -1.7 Current Account, US$bn -0.2 FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 1.1
2011 6.4 -6.3 0.1 1.7
Spot 5270
3000 4000 5000 6000
3 mth 5166
12 m th 5216
24 m th 5612
Kwachas/US$
Policy: Independent float. Agriculture accounts for largest portion of the economic output.
Policy: Managed float. Kwacha will be redenominated in January 2013, with three zeros taken off.
PPP Estimate
7000 8000
32
LONG TERM CONSENSUS FORECASTS
DECEMBER 2012
The figures for 2012 and 2013 in the table below are based on consensus forecasts from our current survey. Figures for 2014-2018 are taken from our October 2012 survey of long-term forecasts, in which we polled for panellists' end-year forecasts and interpolated the results to obtain period averages.
Currency per US$ or euro, except the UK, A$ and euro, which are the reciprocal.
2011 (actual)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
------------------------ Consensus Forecasts ------------------------
G-7 & EUROPE Forecasts vs Euro Czech koruna
end year annual average end year annual average end year annual average end year annual average end year annual average
25.80 24.60 311.4 279.5 4.422 4.118 8.913 9.028 1.218 1.234
25.30 25.15 283.7 288.7 4.119 4.182 8.620 8.704 1.207 1.205
25.07 25.31 284.3 284.9 4.066 4.117 8.400 8.494 1.223 1.215
24.73 24.90 288.2 286.3 3.988 4.027 8.496 8.448 1.237 1.230
23.09 23.91 289.9 289.1 3.602 3.795 8.456 8.476 1.276 1.257
22.95 23.02 290.1 290.0 3.566 3.584 8.496 8.476 1.300 1.288
22.74 22.85 290.3 290.2 3.532 3.549 8.503 8.499 1.318 1.309
23.16 22.95 290.5 290.4 3.572 3.552 8.506 8.504 1.325 1.322
Hungarian forint
Polish zloty
Swedish krona
Swiss franc
Forecasts vs US Dollar Euro end year (US$ per euro) annual average
Japanese yen
1.294 1.390 77.72 79.81 1.546 1.604 1.021 0.990 32.20 29.38
1.290 1.285 82.00 79.67 1.604 1.584 0.988 0.999 30.89 31.03
1.258 1.271 83.49 82.38 1.578 1.586 0.985 0.988 31.28 31.10
1.255 1.256 85.47 84.48 1.574 1.576 1.008 0.997 31.42 31.35
1.303 1.279 84.85 85.16 1.645 1.609 1.035 1.021 33.81 32.61
1.299 1.301 86.77 85.81 1.671 1.658 1.051 1.043 34.08 33.94
1.311 1.305 87.76 87.26 1.687 1.679 1.067 1.059 34.45 34.26
1.321 1.316 89.13 88.44 1.698 1.693 1.073 1.070 34.77 34.61
end year annual average end year annual average end year annual average end year annual average
UK pound (US$ per pound) Canadian dollar
Russian rouble
ASIA/PACIFIC Australian dollar (US$ per A$) Chinese renminbi
end year annual average end year annual average end year annual average end year annual average end year annual average end year annual average end year annual average
1.016 1.032 6.301 6.462 7.765 7.784 53.26 46.67 1.301 1.258 1152 1108 30.28 29.38
1.044 1.035 6.241 6.309 7.750 7.757 54.25 53.30 1.220 1.249 1081 1126 29.10 29.58
1.000 1.016 6.158 6.215 7.775 7.774 52.71 53.26 1.191 1.206 1050 1069 28.77 28.95
0.968 0.984 6.068 6.113 7.775 7.775 51.15 51.93 1.189 1.190 1026 1038 28.52 28.64
0.929 0.949 5.938 6.003 7.764 7.770 50.61 50.88 1.176 1.183 1008 1017 28.37 28.44
0.891 0.910 5.835 5.887 7.769 7.767 51.10 50.86 1.157 1.166 1009 1009 28.20 28.29
0.857 0.874 5.706 5.771 7.773 7.771 51.28 51.19 1.130 1.143 1002 1006 27.87 28.04
0.849 0.853 5.627 5.667 7.772 7.772 51.58 51.43 1.115 1.123 997 1000 27.94 27.91
Hong Kong dollar
Indian rupee
Singapore dollar
South Korean won
Taiwan dollar
LATIN AMERICA Argentinian peso
end year annual average end year annual average end year annual average
4.284 4.110 1.859 1.673 13.99 12.42
4.952 4.547 2.079 1.951 12.79 13.14
5.878 5.449 2.057 2.070 12.58 12.71
6.547 6.212 2.061 2.059 12.72 12.65
6.861 6.704 2.059 2.060 12.73 12.73
7.013 6.937 2.085 2.072 12.88 12.80
7.137 7.075 2.174 2.130 12.89 12.88
7.350 7.244 2.194 2.184 13.05 12.97
Brazilian real
Mexican peso
33
DECEMBER 2012
CROSS RATE FORECASTS
In the tables below, we show spot and consensus forecast cross-rates for most of the major currencies. For the main Asia/ Pacific currencies (below right) we show rates against the Japanese yen, Chinese renminbi and the US dollar. For the eastern and western European currencies (below) we show cross rates against both the euro and the US dollar. The triangular table (bottom left) shows cross rates between the G-7, Brazilian, Chinese and Mexican currencies. Latest rates are those that prevailed at the close of trading on this month's survey date.
Eastern European Consensus Forecasts vs US$ Czech koruna vs Euro Western European Consensus Forecasts vs US$ Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 vs Euro Asia/Pacific Consensus Forecasts vs US$ vs Yen vs renminbi (rmb per unit 1) ( per unit 1) Danish krone Australian dollar (US$ per A$)
19.55 19.98 19.93 19.70 219.1
25.27 25.50 25.07 24.73 283.2 285.5 284.3 288.2 4.108 4.153 4.066 3.988 39.72 39.50 39.34 39.43
5.771 5.841 5.926 5.951 5.678 5.737 5.752 5.864 6.699 6.696 6.678 6.770 0.934 0.949 0.972 0.986
7.459 7.455 7.455 7.468 7.339 7.322 7.235 7.359 8.659 8.546 8.400 8.496 1.207 1.212 1.223 1.237
1.050 1.023 1.000 0.968 7.750
86.44 83.67 83.49 82.76 10.62 10.52 10.74 10.99 1.510 1.529 1.584 1.671 117.0 118.2 114.5 110.0 26.91 26.93 28.15 29.07 68.71 66.50 66.64 65.45 67.40 67.41 70.12 71.86 13.16 13.16 12.50 12.05 2.831 2.816 2.902 2.997 2.684 2.678 2.790 2.884
6.545 6.393 6.158 5.875 0.804 0.804 0.792 0.780 0.114 0.117 0.117 0.119 1545 1547 1553 1550 2.038 2.058 2.076 2.064 5.203 5.081 4.915 4.646 5.104 5.151 5.172 5.102 173.1 172.8 170.5 169.1 0.214 0.215 0.214 0.213 0.203 0.205 0.206 0.205
Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014
Hungarian forint
223.7 226.0 229.7 3.178
Norwegian krone
Hong Kong dollar
7.776 7.775 7.775 54.52
Polish zloty
3.254 3.233 3.178 30.73
Swedish krona
Indian rupee
53.51 52.71 51.15 9630
Russian rouble
30.95 31.28 31.42
Swiss franc
Indonesian rupiah1
9667 9565 9406 3.060
G-7, Brazil, China and Mexico Cross Rate Consensus Forecasts UK pound Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014 Latest End Mar. 2013 End Dec. 2013 End Dec. 2014
Malaysian ringgit
3.037 2.966 2.940 0.835
1.244 1.244 1.255 1.254 1.608 1.588 1.578 1.574 1.587 1.571 1.555 1.587 3.344 3.298 3.247 3.244 10.022 9.924 9.718 9.550 20.57 20.30 19.85 20.02 132.4 129.9 131.8 134.5 1.293 1.276 1.258 1.255 1.276 1.263 1.239 1.265 2.689 2.650 2.588 2.587 8.059 7.976 7.746 7.615 16.54 16.31 15.83 15.97 106.4 104.4 105.0 107.3 0.987 0.989 0.985 1.008 2.080 2.077 2.057 2.061 6.235 6.249 6.158 6.068 12.79 12.78 12.58 12.72 82.34 81.79 83.49 85.47
Euro
The cross rate forecasts set out in the triangular table below are calculated as the amount of a currency at the end of a row that buys one unit of the currency at the head of the appropriate column.
US dollar
New Zealand dollar (US$ per NZ$)
0.813 0.798 0.766 1.222 1.213 1.191 1.189 1079 1080 1050 1026 29.08
Singaporean Dollar
Canadian dollar
South Korean won1
2.107 2.099 2.088 2.045 6.316 6.316 6.250 6.020 12.96 12.92 12.77 12.62 83.41 82.66 84.73 84.79 2.998 3.009 2.993 2.944 6.151 6.156 6.115 6.172 39.59 39.39 40.58 41.46 2.052 2.045 2.043 2.097 13.21 13.09 13.56 14.09 6.435 6.398 6.636 6.718
Japanese yen Mexican peso Chinese renminbi Thai baht Brazlian real Taiwanese dollar
29.05 28.77 28.52 30.68 30.54 29.93 29.63
1 Currencies shaded in purple above (i.e. the Indonesian rupiah and South Korean won) are measured as units per or rmb.
34
CURRENCY RISK ASSESSMENTS

In addition to their central (most likely) forecasts, we asked our panellists for their estimates of the likelihood of alternative rises or declines in certain major currencies over the next twelve months. This analysis provides a measure of the risks attached to consensus central forecasts, and has allowed us to compile some rough probability distributions
DECEMBER 2012
(see below). The charts on page 35 illustrate these 'risk distributions' for nine of the currencies covered. Appreciations or depreciations refer to changes in the currency against the US dollar, e.g.-20% means a 20% rise in the number of currency units per US dollar (except for the UK, the A$, NZ$ and the euro, which are the reciprocal).
Consensus Probability (%) of Currency Depreciation or Appreciation Against the US Dollar Survey date Currency Depreciation vs US$ Appreciation vs US$
December 10, 2012
Link
Floating Floating Floating Floating Floating
-20% or more -6% to -19%

6.0 5.0 4.4 6.0 7.0 23.4 28.2 23.2 23.4 27.0
+/- 5%
49.0 46.0 52.0 48.0 40.0
+6% to +19% +20% or more

16.6 16.4 16.4 18.4 21.0 5.0 4.4 4.0 4.2 5.0
Euro Japanese yen United Kingdom pound Canadian dollar South African rand Latin America Argentinian peso Brazilian real Chilean peso Mexican peso Peruvian sol Venezuelan bolivar Asia/Pacific Australian dollar Chinese renminbi Hong Kong dollar Indian Rupee Indonesian rupiah Malaysian ringgit New Zealand dollar Philippine peso Singapore dollar South Korean won Taiwanese dollar Thai baht Eastern Europe Czech koruna1 Hungarian forint1 Israeli shekel Polish zloty1 Russian rouble Turkish Lira
1
Floating Floating Floating Floating Floating Pegged to US$
40.0 7.0 4.0 3.4 3.0 49.0
28.8 21.8 16.6 12.4 8.6 26.0
22.0 54.0 61.4 49.0 67.0 20.0
6.7 13.2 15.0 31.2 16.4 3.0
2.5 4.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2.0
Floating Managed Float Fixed Peg to US$ Managed Float Managed Float Managed Float Floating Floating Floating Floating Managed Float Managed Float
5.0 2.0 1.7 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
19.0 7.7 4.0 22.3 15.0 16.7 22.0 16.7 15.0 14.3 14.7 14.7
52.0 71.7 88.0 48.3 50.0 50.0 52.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 56.7 50.0
21.0 16.7 4.7 21.0 25.0 23.3 18.0 23.3 25.0 25.7 18.7 25.3
3.0 2.0 1.7 4.3 5.0 5.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Managed Float Floating Floating Floating Managed Float Floating
3.3 7.5 5.0 3.3 5.0 8.3
13.3 20.0 15.0 16.7 20.0 18.3
68.3 45.0 60.0 53.3 50.0 46.7
11.7 22.5 15.0 23.3 20.0 20.0
3.3 5.0 5.0 3.3 5.0 6.7
Probabilities are for appreciation/depreciation against the euro
Consensus forecasts are averages of individual panellists predictions of how a currency is most likely to move over a given time horizon, but most forecasters would also attach some probability to various alternative outcomes or scenarios. This special survey on Currency Risk Assessments is an attempt to quantify these uncertainties, using our panellists estimates to produce a number of consensus probability or risk distributions. The usefulness of this approach is clearly illustrated in the case of pegged or heavily managed currencies, like the Chinese renminbi and the Venezuelan bolivar. However, it can also be valuable for identifying the direction of risk associated with currency forecasts in countries where valuations are dependent to an extent on unclear global macroeconomic developments or government policy actions. In Latin America, movements in the Argentinian peso have been restricted by exchange
controls, which included a ban on US dollar purchases for savings in mid-2012, to curb capital flight. Yet, as can be seen in the table above and chart on next page, high probabilities are attached to a currency decline of between 6 and 19% (28.8%) and 20% or more (40%) over the next twelve months. These figures partly underline concern that Argentina might face another financial storm after a recent legal challenge in the US by holdout creditors to its 2002 crisis had raised the immediate threat of default (story on page 16). Similar fears exist for Venezuela, due to its fragile balance sheet and the re-election in October 2012 of President Chavez, whose populist policies have undermined foreign and domestic investment. A dependence on oil, endemic inflation and a lack of fiscal discipline do not bode well for stability in the currency, which has suffered a series of devaluations over the past decade.
35
DECEMBER 2012
Euro
% probability % probability
Dec. 2013 Consensus Forecast = 1.258 (-2.7%)
CURRENCY RISK ASSESSMENTS

Japanese yen
% probability
UK pound
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
-20% -6 to - +/-5% +6 to +20% 19% +19% or or more more

% change against the US$
-20% -6 to - +/-5% +6 to +20% or 19% +19% or more more


Argentine peso
% probability
Brazilian real
% probability 100
Dec. 2013 Consensus Forecast = 2.057 (+1.1%)
Chinese renminbi
% probability
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Dec. 2013 Consensus Forecast = 6.158 (+1.2%)



Hungarian forint (vs. Euro)

% probability % probability
Turkish lira
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Venezuela bolivar
% probability
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

% change against the euro


Forecast Percentage Changes Against the US$ During the Next Twelve Months
4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0 -12.0 -14.0 -16.0 -18.0 -20.0 -22.0 -24.0 -26.0 -28.0 -30.0 -32.0 -34.0 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013
South Korean won Mexican peso Chinese renminbi Russian rouble Australian dollar
Ukrainian hryvnia
Venezuelan bolivar
Nov 2013
Dec 2013
CONSENSUS ECONOMICS INC.
Established in London in 1989, Consensus Economics prepares monthly compilations of country economic forecasts and topical analyses covering the G-7 Industrialised Nations, Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe and Latin America, as well as specialised publications on Foreign Exchange Forecasts and Energy and Metal Price Forecasts. Over the past two decades Consensus Economics has cultivated a growing network of economists, drawing upon the expertise of well-established local consultancies and large teams of professionals in banks who are dedicated to particular countries and regions. Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts is available at US$798 or 498 or 728 for 12 monthly issues. For prices and descriptions of all our publications and other regional products and services including a range of electronic delivery options visit our website: www.consensuseconomics.com, or contact us at editors@consensuseconomics.com.
Consensus Economics Inc. 53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United Kingdom. Tel (44 20) 7491 3211; Fax (44 20) 7409 2331.
12/2012 FXCF

Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts by Consensus Economics Inc.

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FOREIGN EXCHANGE CONSENSUS FORECASTS

Currency Risk Assessments A Special Survey

Overview .......................................... 1 Currencies in the Spotlight this Month

Editor: Che-Wing Pang Assistant Editor: David M. Baker Web: www.consensuseconomics.com

Summary: Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts

Since End Dec. 2011

Spot Rate Dec. 10 2012

% change to End Dec. 2013

Exchange rates vs. US$

Exchange rates vs. Euro

2.1 10.0 5.6 7.6 2.9 0.9

25.27 283.2 7.339 4.108 8.659 1.207

25.36 284.5 7.329 4.140 8.542 1.207

25.50 285.5 7.322 4.153 8.546 1.212

25.07 284.3 7.235 4.066 8.400 1.223

0.8 -0.4 1.4 1.0 3.1 -1.3

NOTES AND ABBREVIATIONS

UNITED STATES DOLLAR

US$ INDEX: Monthly

130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0

US$ INDEX: Daily High, Low, Closing

2009 -3.1 -0.3 -381.9 0.1 50.5

2010 2.4 1.6 -442.0 0.2 52.1

2011 1.8 3.1 -465.9 0.0 51.9

US: Risk Indicators

8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0

Short-Term Rates - 3m Treasury Bills

-5.0 -7.0 -9.0 -11.0

Budget Balance (% of GDP)

Fed Funds Forecasts (Latest = 0 to 0.25%)

Current Account Balance (% of GDP)

Consensus (mean average) 0.140%

Mode (most frequent fcast) 0.125%

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

Euro zone Less US Interest Rate Differentials

Euro: 3-mth(Libor) Euro: 10-yr (German) US$: 3-mth(T-bill) US$: 10-yr

0.2% 1.3% 0.1% 1.6%

0.2% 1.5% 0.1% 1.8%

0.3% 1.8% 0.1% 2.3%

Short Term Rate Differential*

2.0% 2.4% 0.6% -0.1% 1.9% 1.2%

2.1% -0.5% 1.0%

2.5% -0.6% 0.9%

3.3% 2.9% 2.3%

2.8% 2.7% 2.2%

1.9% 2.5% 1.9%

1.7% 2.5% 1.9%

Consumer Price Inflation

Background Data (2011)

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

1 Euro = US$ 1.293

US$ per Euro: Daily High, Low, Closing

Yen per Euro

Yen/Euro Cross Rate

Yen/Euro forecasts on page 33.

Current Account Balances

2012 -0.2 -4.2 -2.5 -3.5 -6.8 -3.1

2013 -0.3 -3.2 -1.9 -2.9 -4.8 -2.5

* Excludes intra euro zone member transactions, ECB defintion.

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

0.3% 0.1% (T-bill)

Short-Term Rate Differential

JAPAN: GDP Growth and Inflation (year-on-year)

CPI Inflation -3.0 Real GDP Growth -5.0 -7.0