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2.20 3.50 5.00 5.10 5.40 5.50 5.70 5.90 6.00 7.20 8.50 9.40
VIENNA
> Mexico Citys office market grows, with 20 new buildings built in
2012 and a 17% increase in absorption. So Paulo and Rio de Janeiro continue to see occupier demand.
MONTREAL, QC
CALGARY, AB
TORONTO, ON
SYDNEY
TOKYO
> The leasing markets in Jakarta and the Philippines have benefitted from
robust demand from foreign companies seeking office space. Driven by its strong private consumption base, we expect these markets to experience double-digit growth in rental rates.
MEXICO CITY
> The Sydney leasing market remains slow despite tightening vacancy
rates, positive absorption and rental growth. In Melbourne, a distinct lack of business confidence has led to a significant slowdown in demand and tenant commitment
Asia Paci c
Latin America
North America
> While the threat of a Eurozone break-up has diminished, the European
office market continues to operate at a slow pace. Occupiers are costdriven and cautious about real estate requirements. A north-south divide remains apparent with pockets of rental growth in parts of Northern Europe like Germany and the Nordics, and rental weakness across most of Southern Europe and some fringe Central and Eastern markets.
Office markets around the world have weathered the challenges of a slowing Chinese economy, an uneven American recovery and a Europe that is still trying to find its economic footing. Each market is aiming for a state of equilibrium between supply and demand. While some markets appear to still be struggling, the vast majority are experiencing more balance than they have in some time.
North America
ICEE Industries and Housing Rebirth Drive U.S. and Canadian Office Markets
Across the 87 U.S. and Canadian markets tracked by Colliers, strength in the ICEE (intellectual capital, energy and education) markets continued to drive absorption through the first quarter of 2013, totaling 3.9 million square feet compared with 8,000 square feet of negative absorption in FIRE (finance, insurance and real estate) markets. Although FIRE employment is beginning to rebound slowly, ICEE industries should remain the primary drivers of office-using employment growth and absorption through 2013. The vacancy rate improved to 13.89% in Q1 2013 dropping for the fifth consecutive quarter. Net absorption slowed to 7.8 million square feet in Q1 2013, about 37% of the Q4 2012 total of more than 21.1 million square feet. The decrease reflected both robust tenant demand in Q4 2012 the largest quarterly total for absorption since the financial crisis and the impact of the sequester and tax increases on demand in Q1 2013.
$34.47
Vancouver
4.8%
$20.06
Seattle
Vancouver
6.2% Victoria
$42.13
5.5% Calgary
$25.79
Montreal
6.5%
$21.75
Seattle
$26.51
4.4% Boston
5.5%
$18.36 $14.15
Denver Chicago 6.5%
6.5%
$33.65
$22.61 $25.16
Houston
$33.16
New York Midtown South
5.2%
$29.46
San Francisco
5.0%
NA
$11.18
Atlanta
7.7%
*Note: Average Net rent = Gross Asking Rent - Annual Realty Taxes - Operating Expenses
A strong rebound in the for-sale housing market is poised to benefit suburban office markets in particular in 2013, as homebuilders, contractors and other vendors open offices and resume hiring in areas proximate to new developments. Previously hard-hit markets such as Phoenix, Las Vegas and metropolitan areas in Florida and central California will benefit from this trend. In both the United States and Canada, the suburban vacancy rate decreased on a quarter-over-quarter basis, in contrast with the CBD vacancy rate which rose in both countries.
an expansionary mode with enough absorption to fill the new properties coming to market. Yet while existing buildings and construction are meeting market demand for the time being, the possibility of an oversupply remains a danger for the future.
Latin America
Mexico City Builds and Leases New Office Space
Mexico Citys office market continues to grow, with 20 new buildings built in 2012 and a 17% increase in absorption. In the first quarter of 2013, there were 54 more office buildings under construction. Over the next five years we expect office inventory to increase by about 3.2 million square feet, of which about 708,661 will be added this year. The vacancy rate continues to exhibit stability from year to year. For the first quarter of 2013 at least, the office market remains in
Santiago, Chile.
$26.75
Panama City
9.7%
$31.20
Mexico City
9.0%
$39.23
8.3% Bogot
$24.05
Lima
10.9%
$90.57
$66.36
So Paulo
10.3%
$32.43
Buenos Aires
8.1%
Asia Pacific
Despite external headwinds and the slower-than-expected GDP growth in some key Asian economies, demand fundamentals remained positive as demonstrated by the fact that the vast majority of the leasing inquires involved either the same or expansionary real estate requirements. However, most overseas corporations remained cost-conscious and chose to relocate to decentralized locations. Office rents in most centers have remained flat or increased mildly. Key cities in China continued to see a steady growth of about one percent quarter-on-quarter. In general, rental growth expectations remain positive in 2013. Exceptional rental growth is expected in Beijing where the city has experienced a sustained lack of supply. Jakarta is expected to be the stand-out city with
rental growth in the order of high-double digit in 2013 thanks to robust leasing demand from corporations banking on the countrys massive private consumption base.
Asian Occupier Demand Resilient Beijings Vacancy Rate to Edge Up Thanks to Buoyant Private Consumption Economic deceleration combined with high rental rates caused
the demand for Class A space in Beijing to decrease in the second half of 2012. Absorption decreased by 93.7% over the previous year. However, overall rental rates still grew by 19.4%. We expect demand to remain largely stable for the remainder of 2013. Given the new supply and relatively limited pre-commitment rates, the overall vacancy rate should edge up. However, asset performance will remain stable, with moderate growth in both rental and capital values.
Beijing
$66.55
2.5%
4.7%
$99.29*
4.3% Tokyo
$154.78
Hong Kong
$64.34
Singapore
3.9%
$59.36
Brisbane
7.3%
$36.78
Adelaide
8.0%
$62.07
Sydney
7.0%
Thanks to a lack of availability and demand from domestic financial institutions in Pudong, rents will continue to grow. In Puxi, rents will remain under pressure due to ample new supply.
Shanghai, China.
Asia
6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
3.90
4.50
4.30
HONG KONG
SINGAPORE
TOKYO
4.00
4.00
Latin America
9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5
BUENOS AIRES BOGOT MEXICO CITY
9.00 8.50
8.10
North America
6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0
VANCOUVER, BC NEW YORK, NY DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN SAN FRANCISCO, CA
4.75
4.75
controlled supply in near future, rental rates will remain at current levels in preferred micro markets such as CBD, OMR and Guindy. However, there may be a downward pressure in locations away from the cities because of lower demand.
term on account of supply and demand equilibrium. There will be limited new supply addition, as developers are refraining from speculative development due to uncertainty in the future performance of the IT sector and price competition from other alternative locations like Pune and Hyderabad.
with the majority of transactions focused on lease renewals and business space consolidation. The outlook is positive with a slow rebound; beginning in 2014, of the Finance, Insurance and Business Services sectors driven by the low interest rate environment is expected to support employment growth across the CBD.
Despite the low vacancy rate, the battle to fill vacant space has led to significant growth in incentives and a softening in face rents. Expect that to continue for the remainder of 2013 as it is an election year. We expect more certainty to come back into the business community in 2014 and this should drive further demand, a softening in incentives and the start of rental growth.
Hong Kong Vienna Zurich Singapore London West End Paris Geneva Tokyo Munich Stockholm
2.51 3.50 3.80 3.90 4.00 4.25 4.25 4.30 4.50 4.50
2.67 3.50 4.00 3.90 4.00 4.50 4.25 4.50 4.50 4.75
2.94 3.50 4.10 4.20 4.00 4.50 4.25 4.50 4.50 5.00
Hong Kong London West End Tokyo* Rio de Janeiro Paris London City Moscow Perth Beijing So Paulo
* - Gross rents reported for Tokyo
154.78 134.14 99.29 90.57 83.75 78.86 77.12 75.87 66.55 66.36
166.70 125.65 106.01 90.40 84.68 76.18 77.23 75.96 58.94 63.50
178.34 120.31 110.17 93.05 80.88 75.29 75.78 73.85 55.54 63.43
slowdown in development activity, should help to preserve prime rental values, while secondary locations will continue to struggle, amplifying market polarization.
$65.62
Stockholm
4.5%
$21.33
Copenhagen
5.0%
$32.33 $134.14
London Paris 4.0%
4.7% Hamburg
$27.92
5% Berlin
$83.75
4.5%
$27.18
3.5% Vienna
$41.14
Munich
4.5%
$49.29
Zurich
3.8%
$63.39
Geneva
4.3%
10
With 7.5 million square feet of take-up, 2012 was slightly above the long-term average. Most demand was driven by the industrial and public sectors, while demand from financial services weakened. Reducing property occupancy costs remains the main driver of business relocations, which favor new or refurbished offices or, failing that, completely renovated and green buildings. Vacant space remained under 7% but an increase is possible due to new deliveries and the release of space by large occupiers. Given the resilience of the office rental market in Ile-de-France since the 2009 crisis, we are expecting demand to stabilize at between 6.8 and 7.2 million square feet in 2013. Headline rents for new or refurbished buildings should remain high due to the shortage of new properties, which are still popular among large occupiers. The difference between prime and other properties in Paris will widen further.
causing vacancy to fall to 16.4%, the lowest level for four years. Take-up rose by 53% across Manchester as a whole in H2 2012. While new Class A space remains in short supply, there has been a steady release of second-hand Class A accommodation that is keeping vacancy flat for better quality space. Nevertheless, appetite for this type of space is improving, as evidenced above, and we anticipate steady demand for all types of Class A product throughout 2013 as companies that had mothballed expansion plans begin to revisit growth strategies. The prospects for rental growth in the UK regions remain strongest in Manchester, with headline rents likely to see further uplift during 2013. Encouraging employment forecasts suggest that Manchester will see supply levels tighten further during 2013 and, with limited new product being delivered over the next 18 months, competition for the best product will help to drive further rental growth.
11
MARKET
COUNTRY
UNIT
QUOTED CURRENCY
ASIA PACIFIC
Adelaide Brisbane Melbourne Perth Sydney Beijing Hong Kong Bangalore Chennai Delhi Mumbai Jakarta Auckland Wellington Makati Singapore
Australia Australia Australia Australia Australia China China India India India India Indonesia New Zealand New Zealand Philippines Singapore
SM SM SM SM SM SM SF SF SF SF SF SM SM SM SM SF
AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD CNY HKD INR INR INR INR IDR NZD NZD PHP SGD
Year Year Year Year Year Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Year Year Month Month
0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 6.23 7.75 54.85 54.85 54.85 54.85 9,799.95 1.21 1.21 41.04 1.22
381.00 615.00 430.00 786.00 643.00 372.10 99.97 57.00 62.00 230.00 191.00 277,250.00 334.00 343.00 915.00 6.55
491.00 745.00 540.00 948.00 781.00 407.70 117.03 67.50 72.50 271.00 225.00
36.78 59.36 41.51 75.87 62.07 66.55 154.78 12.47 13.56 50.32 41.79 31.53
47.39 71.91 52.12 91.51 75.39 72.92 181.19 14.77 15.86 59.29 49.22 38.57 35.77 33.93 30.22 81.73
8.00 7.25
6.95 4.71 2.51 9.00 10.00 8.80 10.50 8.10 8.30 8.19 8.80 3.90
SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM
12
MARKET
COUNTRY
UNIT
QUOTED CURRENCY
EMEA CONTINUED
Copenhagen Cairo Tallinn Helsinki Bordeaux Lyon Marseille Montpellier Nantes Paris Toulouse Berlin Dsseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Munich Stuttgart Athens Budapest Dublin Milan Rome Riga Vilnius Amsterdam Oslo
Denmark Egypt Estonia Finland France France France France France France France Germany Germany Germany Germany Germany Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Italy Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Norway
SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM
DKK USD EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR NOK
Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Year
5.66 1.00 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 5.56
108.30 21.68 13.40 21.00 12.80 20.00 16.60 12.50 13.30 57.00 15.00 19.00 24.20 30.00 22.00 28.00 16.20 12.00 12.50 20.00 35.40 26.20 12.00 13.50 17.80 3,375.00
21.33 24.16 19.69 30.86 18.81 29.39 24.39 18.37 19.54 83.75 22.04 27.92 35.56 44.08 32.33 41.14 23.80 17.63 18.37 29.39 52.02 38.50 17.63 19.84 26.15 56.33
5.00 9.00 7.50 5.25 6.50 6.00 6.15 6.80 6.80 4.25 6.50 5.00 5.20 5.15 4.70 4.50 5.20 8.00 7.50 7.50 5.50 5.90 8.00 8.00 6.80 5.40
13
MARKET
COUNTRY
UNIT
QUOTED CURRENCY
EMEA CONTINUED
Krakow Warsaw Wroclaw Lisbon Bucharest Moscow Saint Petersburg Jeddah Riyadh Belgrade Bratislava Barcelona Madrid Stockholm Geneva Zurich Istanbul Kyiv Abu Dhabi Dubai Belfast Birmingham Bristol Edinburgh Glasgow
Poland Poland Poland Portugal Romania Russia Russia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Serbia Slovakia Spain Spain Sweden Switzerland Switzerland Turkey Ukraine U.A.E. U.A.E. U.K. U.K. U.K. U.K. U.K.
SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SF SF SF SF SF
EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR USD USD SAR SAR EUR EUR EUR EUR SEK CHF CHF USD USD USD USD GBP GBP GBP GBP GBP
Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Year Year Month Month Month Month Year Month Month Month Month Month Month Year Year Year Year Year
0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 1.00 1.00 3.75 3.75 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 6.51 0.92 0.92 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62
14.50 22.20 15.00 14.78 15.00 69.20 34.20 789.00 1,275.00 15.00 11.00 14.75 22.75 4,600.00 52.08 40.50 28.95 23.00 30.46 32.90 12.50 21.00 24.00 21.00 23.00
21.31 32.62 22.04 21.72 22.04 77.12 38.11 19.54 31.57 22.04 16.16 21.67 33.43 65.62 63.39 49.29 32.26 25.63 33.95 36.67 20.32 34.14 39.02 34.14 37.40
7.50 6.25 7.50 8.00 8.25 9.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 9.50 7.50 6.50 6.00 4.50 4.25 3.80 7.00 11.00 10.00 10.00 6.25 6.00 6.25 6.00 6.00
14
MARKET
COUNTRY
UNIT
QUOTED CURRENCY
EMEA CONTINUED
SF SF SF
Buenos Aires Bogot Lima Mexico City Panama City Rio de Janeiro So Paulo
NORTH AMERICA
SM SM SM SM SM SM SM
Calgary, AB Edmonton, AB Halifax, NS Montral, QC Ottawa, ON Regina, SK Saskatoon, SK Toronto, ON Vancouver, BC Victoria, BC Waterloo Region, ON Winnipeg, MB
Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada
SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF
CAD CAD CAD CAD CAD CAD CAD CAD CAD CAD CAD CAD
Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year
.99 .99 .99 .99 .99 .99 .99 .99 .99 .99 .99 .99
42.00 23.78 17.02 25.71 27.00 26.30 25.25 27.63 34.36 20.00 14.03 18.00
60.21 42.02 32.35 45.00 51.60 42.00 40.00 54.28 54.57 35.00 25.66 33.50
42.13 23.86 17.07 25.79 27.09 26.38 25.33 27.72 34.47 20.06 14.07 18.06
60.40 42.15 32.45 45.14 51.76 42.13 40.13 54.45 54.74 35.11 25.74 33.61
5.50 5.78
15
MARKET
COUNTRY
UNIT
QUOTED CURRENCY
Atlanta, GA Bakersfield, CA Baltimore, MD Birmingham, AL Boise, ID Boston, MA Charleston, SC Charlotte, NC Chicago, IL Cincinnati, OH Cleveland, OH Columbia, SC Columbus, OH Dallas, TX Denver, CO Detroit, MI Fresno, CA Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL Ft. Worth, TX Grand Rapids, MI Greenville, SC Hartford, CT Honolulu, HI Houston, TX Indianapolis, IN Jacksonville, FL
US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US
SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF
USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD
Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
7.69
18.36 12.46
18.36 12.46
6.50 9.75
15.90 17.60 18.50 11.33 12.73 10.19 17.79 25.16 11.53 9.61
24.00 31.10 27.75 19.28 19.90 22.69 34.45 37.02 19.03 19.51
15.90 17.60 18.50 11.33 12.73 10.19 17.79 25.16 11.53 9.61
24.00 31.10 27.75 19.28 19.90 22.69 34.45 37.02 19.03 19.51
9.00
16
MARKET
COUNTRY
UNIT
QUOTED CURRENCY
Kansas City, MO Las Vegas, NV Little Rock, AR Los Angeles, CA Louisville, KY Memphis, TN Miami-Dade, FL Milwaukee, WI Minneapolis, MN New York, NY - Downtown Manhattan New York, NY - Midtown Manhattan New York, NY - Midtown South Manhattan Oakland, CA Omaha, NE Orlando, FL Philadelphia, PA Phoenix, AZ Pittsburgh, PA Portland, OR Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, NC Reno, NV Richmond, VA Sacramento, CA San Diego, CA San Francisco, CA
US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US
SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF
USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD
Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
8.00 24.41 9.18 5.22 22.61 33.65 33.16 16.72 10.62 12.49 15.21 9.86 12.76 14.89
16.70 39.91 20.17 16.52 47.09 68.19 54.55 30.72 19.62 23.49 26.40 22.86 23.51 24.89 22.89 21.31 23.14
8.00 24.41 9.18 5.22 22.61 33.65 33.16 16.72 10.62 12.49 15.21 9.86 12.76 14.89
16.70 39.91 20.17 16.52 47.09 68.19 54.55 30.72 19.62 23.49 26.40 22.86 23.51 24.89 22.89 21.31 23.14
17
MARKET
COUNTRY
UNIT
QUOTED CURRENCY
San Jose - Silicon Valley Savannah, GA Seattle/Puget Sound, WA St. Louis, MO St. Paul, MN Stamford, CT Stockton, CA Tampa Bay, FL Walnut Creek/Pleasanton, CA Washington DC West Palm Beach/Palm Beach County, FL White Plains, NY
US US US US US US US US US US US US
SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF
USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD
Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
16.27 13.59 21.75 7.13 2.21 25.34 16.40 14.07 27.72 31.98 23.00 17.08
31.83 20.59 30.96 17.73 13.35 38.54 20.16 23.07 27.72 53.98 38.00 30.88
16.27 13.59 21.75 7.13 2.21 25.34 16.40 14.07 27.72 31.98 23.00 17.08
31.83 20.59 30.96 17.73 13.35 38.54 20.16 23.07 27.72 53.98 38.00 30.88
8.00
8.00
Sydney, Australia.
18
Research Contributors
Argentina Santiago Poy santiago.poy@colliers.com Asia Simon Lo simon.lo@colliers.com Australia Nerida Conisbee nerida.conisbee@colliers.com Katy Dean katy.dean@colliers.com Anneke Thompson anneke.thompson @colliers.com Mathew Tiller mathew.tiller@colliers.com Brazil Leandro Angelino leandro.angelino@colliers.com CEE Damian Harrington damian.harrington@colliers.com China Henes Chi henes.chi@colliers.com Ricky Zhang ricky.zhang@colliers.com Columbia Aurora Turriago aurora.turriago@colliers.com EMEA Zuzanna Baranowska zuzanna.baranowska@colliers.com Bruno Berretta bruno.berretta@colliers.com Germany Andreas Trumpp andreas.trumpp@colliers.com Hong Kong Arthur Yim arthur.yim@colliers.com India Surabhi Arora surabhi.arora@colliers.com Japan Yumiko Yasada yumiko.yasada@colliers.com Korea Gemma Choi gemma.choi@colliers.com Mexico Flavio Gmez Aranzubia flavio.gomez@colliers.com New Zealand Alan McMahon alan.mcmahon@colliers.com Nina Zhang nina.zhang@colliers.com Nordics Anne Kaag Andersen Anne.kaagandersen@colliers.com North China Carlby Xie carlby.xie@colliers.com Peru Sandro Vidal sandro.vidal@colliers.com Philippines Karlo Pobre karlo.pobre@colliers.com Singapore Chia Siew-Chuin siew-chuin.chia@colliers.com Michelle Tee michelle.tee@colliers.com Taiwan Paul Lee paul.lee@colliers.com United Kingdom Dr. Walter Boettcher walter.boettcher@colliers.com Mark Charlton mark.charlton@colliers.com United States Andrea Cross andrea.cross@colliers.com KC Conway kc.conway@colliers.com Andrea Cross andrea.cross@colliers.com Cliff Plank cliff.plank@colliers.com Jeff Simonson jeff.simonson@colliers.com Lauren Chlebowski | Global Brand Designer
19
Editor: James Cook Director of Research | USA +1 602 633 4061 James.Cook@colliers.com
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$2
2.5
13,500
Copyright 2013 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
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