Introduction

In the beginning, human evolution was directed by Nature. During the Industrial Age, however, we humans started to rule Nature, change the climate and influence our own evolution by changing the ecosystems. Our individual and national selfishness created a polluted world whose future is at risk. The Earth should not become a product of human design; it is time to make our peace with the planet. Lately, Nature has issued warning signals and we should listen! We should listen and understand that in this age of self-guided evolution, the survival of human civilization is up to us. The planet is not at risk; we are! Today we live far beyond our means and the damage we inflict on the planet could become irreversible. Understanding the price that future generations could pay for the indoor ski slopes in the Persian Gulf and for the executive jets filling the sky is just as essential as the knowledge that we still have time to solve the problems that we have created. We should not give reason for our grandchildren to ask: Why didnt you act? We should find the moral courage to resolve this crisis. During the last century, the world population quadrupled, and during the last 20 years it has increased by another third. During the last 50 years, global energy consumption also quadrupled and the carbon dioxide concentration of the atmosphere has reached the highest level in 650,000 years. Together with overpopulation and nuclear proliferation, global warming is one of the most serious problems we face. Climate change has no military solution! Nuclear warheads will not reduce carbon emissions or increase the size of our fossil or nuclear fuel deposits. They will only increase the probability of energy wars. Overpopulation and unsustainable consumption are stressing the planet and if the tipping point is reached, natural disasters can occur. Our children have the right to hold us responsible if we neglect to do what needs to be done. It is essential that during the next 50 to 100 years, we convert our exhaustible fossil fuel and nuclear-based economy to one that is inexhaustible, safe, and clean. This book describes such an economy based on solar hydrogen. We have to do this because even if global warming was not taking place, our fossil and nuclear fuel deposits will run out. We have to understand that global warming is not like a pendulum. Global temperature by itself will not return to where it was. The thermal processes of our planet have such immense inertia that they cannot be stopped overnight. On the other hand, a well-planned, orderly transformation can gradually slow the warming trend and stabilize our climate. We should also understand that the transition to a clean and renewable economy need not disrupt, but in fact can improve, the world economy. The
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2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

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Introduction

building of new technologies and new infrastructure can create new jobs, new markets, and a global economic boom that will advance the Third World. The U.N. Human Development report of 2007 concluded that if the global temperature was to rise by only 2C, 600 million people would go hungry, 200 million would be displaced by floods, and 400 million would be exposed to malaria, dengue, and other diseasesnot only in the Third World. It has, for example, been reported that tropical viruses have moved into Italy. The U.N. also indicated that in case of inaction the planet would warm 6C by 2030 and the consequences would be catastrophic. There is no question that our goal must be to stabilize the climate. On the other hand, during the required transition to a sustainable lifestyle, we can live with a few degrees of rise in global temperature and with a few inches of increase in the level of the oceans. What is needed is a gradual transition that, on the one hand, accepts that the conversion cannot occur overnight, that we might have to raise some levees and embankments but, on the other hand, aims at the longer-range goal of stabilizing carbon emissions. Therefore, once the demonstration plant described in this volume is built and we have proved that renewable energy power plants do not cost more than fossil or nuclear ones, from that point on, all new power plants should be renewable. This book also emphasizes that the transition can be speeded by energy conservation. While the ultimate solution is a solarhydrogen economy, the immediate tasks include the use of the existing technologies serving energy conservation. Our planet receives more solar energy in about a half an hour than humankind uses in a year. The solar energy that can be collected on 1% of the Sahara is sufficient to meet our global electricity needs. Solar collectors covering a small part of the arid Southwest of the United States are all that are needed to supply all the electricity needed by the nation. If, in addition to the gradual conversion to a solarhydrogen economy, all new homes are weatherized and covered with solar roofs, if we start building the infrastructure for millions of plug-in electric cars, the transition will not only be manageable but will also create the economic boom of the century. This book is organized into five chapters. The first chapter describes the causes of global warming, its consequences, the steps various governments have taken to slow it, and the impacts of these steps. This chapter also describes the existing conservation technologies and the existing renewable energy processes, including the ones needed to build a solarhydrogen demonstration power plant. In addition to the present technologies, new ones are also evolving, such as ultrathin ink-based semiconductor collectors or the reversible fuel cells, which during the day generate hydrogen and at night use it to make electricity. If this trend is combined with drastic cost reduction from mass production, the transition can be cost effective. The next two chapters give specific technical information, describing energy optimization techniques that could reduce the energy consumption of the industrialized countries by 25% and that of the Third World by even more. For example, the energy consumption of the Chinese and that of former

2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

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Soviet-era buildings can be cut in half, and the energy use of boilers, chillers, compressors, refineries, and conventional power plants can be optimized. The second goal of Chapters 2 and 3 is to show that we already have the know-how to build a full-sized, renewable energy demonstration plant. We know how to optimize large solar power plants, which might consist of some 25,000 disk collectors. We also know how to herd the collectors to track the Sun and how to provide solar energy storage in hydrogen and other forms. We know how to operate reversible electrolyzers that can convert solar energy to hydrogen and can also act as fuel cells, converting hydrogen back into electricity when needed. We also have the technology to build millions of energy-free homes, and the electric grid can provide for their energy storage. Lastly, we also know how to burn hydrogen in modern fuel cells, which operate at twice the efficiency of gasoline engines and emit no pollutant, only distilled water. The fourth chapter of this book provides the detailed design of what I hope will be the worlds first full-sized solarhydrogen demonstration power plant. In this chapter and elsewhere in this volume, I provide estimates of the present efficiencies and costs. However, the main goal of this book is to move the whole topic of the renewable energy economy from estimates to proven facts. Once this demonstration plant is built, we will have these facts. The concluding fifth chapter compares the energy options available to mankind. It provides quantitative data on the present trends of CO2 emissions, energy consumption and population growth and on the consequences of continued reliance on exhaustible (fossil and nuclear) energy sources. I also explain why dependence on thermal nuclear energy is likely to lead to dependence on plutonium-fueled breeder reactors. The chapter calculates the costs and time needed to convert to a totally renewable energy economy and also discusses the consequences of inaction. After reading this book, it is hoped that the reader will not only realize the moral imperative for action, but will also understand that the conversion to the solarhydrogen economy is technically feasible and economical, and can be done in a calm, orderly fashion. To achieve these goalsto start this, the third Industrial Revolutionwill require vision and commitment, but so did the landing on the moon. The scale of the effort could exceed that of the Marshall Plan. It is debatable how much time we have or how much climate change we can live with. It is also debatable how much of our economic resources should be devoted to stabilizing or reversing humankinds growing carbon footprint. What is not debatable is that we have to do it if humankinds future is to be different from that of the dinosaurs!

2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC