The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

1.0 ABSTRACT

In this project, we are considering the evolution of a system of population dynamics of prey and predator of two types of species. There are sheep as a prey and coyote as a predator. This model will described by Lotka-Volterra Population Growth Model. By using the Pplan8 and ODEsolve of Math lab, we can determine the graph and the nature of stability of each model that we have modified. Jacobian matrix is used in order to determine the nature of stability of critical point for each model. Based on the result, the nature of stability for our basic model is stable centre and unstable saddle point. On the other side, there are only three types of nature of stability for each model that we have modified, which are unstable spiral, unstable saddle point and stable centre.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

2.0 INTRODUCTION

This project is about prey and predator model which the coyote as the predator and the sheep as the prey. The Coyote is a canines species that smaller than wolves. It is also known as prairie wolves, brush wolves or American jackal. Nowadays, it can be found at the big cities such as Los Angeles and North America. The coyote once lived primarily in open grassland and deserts, but now roam the continent's forests and mountains.

Coyotes are fearsome in the field where they enjoy keen vision and a strong sense of smell. They can run up to 40 miles (64 kilometers) an hour. In the fall and winter, they form packs for more effective hunting. In spring, females den and give birth to litters of three to twelve pups. Both parents feed and protect their young and their territory. By the following fall, the pups are able to hunt on their own. Coyotes usually breed only once a year and 6 pups per birth in average. Coyote can live a maximum of 10 years in the wild and 18 years in captivity.

The coyote is versatile feeders. Sometimes, it is labeled as carnivores but more often as omnivores. They will eat almost anything. They hunt animals such as sheep, rabbits, rodents, and frogs. They also happily dine on plants and fruits. Presently, the

coyote is the most abundant livestock predators in western North America, causing the majority of sheep, goat and cattle died. When attacking adult sheep or goats, coyotes will bite the throat just behind the jaw and below the ear, and they will bite the skull and spinal regions when attacking smaller prey, such as young lambs.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

Meanwhile, sheeps are relatively small ruminants, usually with a crimped hair called wool and often with horns forming a lateral spiral. Sheep

are herbivorous mammals. Ram is a male sheep while a female sheep is called a ewe. Sheep are descended from the wild mouflon of Europe and Asia. The average life expectancy of a sheep is 10 to 12 years, though some sheep may live as long as 20 years. In the United States, over one third of sheep deaths in 2004 were caused by predation. Birth rate for sheep is one to three times in a year and they can breed 3 lambs once.

Sheep have good hearing, and are sensitive to noise. More than that, sheep can see behind themselves without turning their heads because it is have horizontal slit-shaped pupils with visual fields of approximately 270 to 320. Sheep have little ability to defend themselves, compared with other species. Even if sheep survive an attack, they may die from their injuries or simply from panic because sheep are timid, nervous and easily frightened animals and for the most part defenseless against predators like coyotes and wild dogs. Usually, sheep will flock together in large numbers in order to survive and to run away from predators. In addition, sheep do not like to walk in water or move through narrow openings. They prefer to move into the wind and uphill than down wind and downhill. (Wanda Embar (2007)

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

3.0 OBJECTIVE

a. To help the shepherd to make sure that the sheep will not get extinct. b. To investigate the effect of sheep in the presence of coyote. c. To determine the nature of stability of population of sheep and coyote. d. To predict the population of sheep and coyote in 10 years.

4.0

LITERATURE REVIEW

The research of predator and prey also had been done at University of Colorado Boulder in 2012. He states that the Lotka-Volterra model of prey and predator interaction is essentially a kinetic model. He also uses sheep as a prey while coyote is the predator. His basic Lotka Volterra model use time in day unit. Polymath program is used in order to determine the nature of stability of his model. The graph of sheep and coyote population versus time is periodic and isolate. The result shows that when he decreases the initial population of coyote from the basic model, there is a larger isolation of sheep population. It means that when the population coyote is decrease, the population of sheep will increase. Hence, there is inversely proportional relation between sheep and coyote population. Learn Cheme (2012).

Takeuchi Y. et al. (2005), have done a research with consider the evolution of a system composed of two predatorprey deterministic systems described by Lotka Volterra equations in random environment. They are proved that by using the inuence of telegraph noise, all positive trajectories always go out from any compact set of intR2+ with probability one if two rest points of the two systems do not coincide. They found that in case where they have the rest point in common, the trajectory either converges to the rest point or leaves from any compact set of intR2+. The system is neither permanent nor dissipative if there is escape of the trajectories from any compact set.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

5.0 ANALYSIS

Beals M. et al. (1999) stated that the Lotka-Volterra model is composed of a pair of differential equations that describe predator-prey dynamics in their simplest case consist of one predator population and one prey population. It was developed independently by Alfred Lotka and Vito Volterra in the 1920's, and is characterized by oscillations in the population size of both predator and prey, with the peak of the predator's oscillation lagging slightly behind the peak of the prey's oscillation. Predators and prey can influence one another's evolution. There are several simplifying assumptions for this model:

(a) The prey population will grow exponentially when the predator is absent (b) The predator population will starve in the absence of the prey population (as opposed to switching to another type of prey) (c) Predators can consume infinite quantities of prey (d) There is no environmental complexity (in other words, both populations are moving randomly through a homogeneous environment).

Our variable is x, the number of sheep at time t, and y, the number of coyote at time t. We assume that t is in a day. First assumption, we assume that when the coyote is absent, the sheep population will increase their numbers about 2.19% by calculating their growth rate(8/year). We model the growth of the sheep by the differential equation. when y=0 Then, we assume that in the absence of the sheep, the coyote will starve and lead to death. The rate of cheetah population is declining about 0.03% by calculating the rate of their life expectancy. Life span for a coyote is around 10 years(1/3650). Hence, the differential equation will be when x=0

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

If the sheep and coyote at the same area it is probably that the rate of sheep killed by the coyote is proportional to the number of sheep and proportional to the number coyote. If there are plenty of sheep, the population of the coyote will increase rapidly because they get enough food. The differential equation for sheep is

A research found that the proportion of sheep population which killed by one coyote at one time is 0.00012. Similarly, the differential equation for coyote is

The constant 0.0000024 (0.00012*0.02) represent the proportion of newborn coyote in coyote population due to food value of one sheep multiply with proportion of sheep population which killed by one coyote at one time

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

6.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 6.1 Basic Model x = 0.0219x (0.00012) xy y= -0.0003y + (0.0000024) xy x = 2000, y = 50

At t=0, the initial population of sheep is 2000 and the initial of coyote is 50. The growth rate of sheep is increase and also the growth rate of coyote is increase because they have a lot of source of food. When the population of coyote increases at t= 200days, the population of sheep will decrease and vice versa. This happen periodically every 7000days.In this case, we assume both species does not have any immigration or emigration. This is called basic Lotka Volterra model. As we want to see clearer the behavior of this model, through phase portrait, we can know the behavior of the model shown below.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

The phase portrait shows that there are two criticals point in this basic model. First critical point is (125,183) and it shows that the behavior of the model is stable center. This behavior shows that the periodically in the system like in the explanation of graph above. This shows that the coexistence for both species. If the initial number of populations if sufficiently close to the equilibrium point then the interaction of sheep and coyote will remain at 125 and the populations of coyote at 183. The second points is unstable saddle point at (0, 0) where its show no life at all at this equilibrium point. The behavior of the phase diagram also shows that the trajectories moving towards equilibrium and then depart from it. If the initial value is close to (0, 0) equilibrium point, then this equilibrium correspond to a state of coexistence where theoretically, the population of both of sheep and coyote remain extinct forever.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

6.2 Modify value of initial populations x = 3500, y = 250

x = 0.0219x (0.00012) xy y= -0.0003y + (0.0000024)xy

The initial population is modifying for sheep is 3500 while for coyote is 250. As we can see from the graph above, at t=0, the population of sheep is higher than coyote. Since sheep is the main source of food for coyote, when the sheep population is increased, the population of coyote also increases because the growth of rate for coyote also increases. This is due to the sufficient of food resources. Since the population of predator increase, the population of sheep decrease and become increase again at t= 6000days .this situation is periodically happen in this system. Compare to the previous when initial population for sheep is 2500 and the population of the coyote is 50, the sheep population will increase at 7000 days which is 1000days later than modify initial model. This proves that the initial population of the model may affect the time of species to increase or decrease. It also important because we can know either that species will go extinct or coexistence based on the initial population.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

6.3 One of the species is affected i) Sheep is affected a) Assuming that constant number of population is depleted x= 0.0219x 0.00012 xy- 0.06 y= - 0.0003y + 0.0000024 xy We assume that if the shepherd sold his sheep 25 per year, then = 0.06 per day.

As we can see, the initial of sheep is 2000 and 50 of coyote but when sheep is sold 25 per year, the population of sheep is decreased and the population of coyote also decreased. This is happen because the source of food for coyote is start to depleted then coyote do not have source of food and it will affected the growth rate of coyote. The sheep population is start to decrease and still remain at the population as the time goes.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

As we can see, there coexistence of both species at critical point (125,178), the trajectories of direction field is moving toward to the equilibrium point. This explains that sheep will coexist at 125 and coyote will coexist at 178 and the population size remains at this level indefinitely. The other point is at critical point (3, 0) and this is saddle point. The trajectories moving toward critical point and then depart from it. This explains if the initial number of sheep and coyote are sufficiently close to (3,0), then the interaction process will ultimately lead to survival of sheep at 3 and the extinction of coyote.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

b) Assuming that constant proportion of the population is depleted x= 0.0219x 0.00012 xy- 0.001x y= - 0.0003y + 0.0000024 xy In this case we assume 0.1% of the sheep population will depleted at that time due to the rate of selling of sheep.

In this case, during t=0, the initial population of sheep is 2000 and the population of coyote is 50. At the first, the population of sheep is increased and the population of coyote also increases because coyote got more food. This will lead to coyotes rate of birth increase. But when the population of sheep increases, the sheep population will decrease. As the sheep population is decrease, source of food for coyote is also decrease then population of coyote also decrease. Due to the decrease of coyote population, the sheep population will increase. This phase was happening periodically in 7000 days interval.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

From the above phase portrait, we have two critical points. First is at (125,174) is a stable center. Thus it is stable. All trajectories approach around the equilibrium. This equilibrium point corresponds to a state periodic and coexistence of both species. Theoretically, the population of both sheep and coyote remain at (125,174) forever. The second critical point (0, 0) is a saddle point. Thus it is unstable. All trajectories nearby approach this equilibrium and then depart from it. This equilibrium point correspond to a state of coexistence where the population of sheep and coyote will remain at (0, 0) if the initial value closed to this equilibrium point.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

ii) Coyote is affected a) Assuming that constant number of population is depleted x= 0.0219x 0.00012 xy y= - 0.0003y + 0.0000024 xy 0.0274 We assume that 10 coyote is haunted per year. = 0.0274

At initial, the population of sheep is 2000 and the population of coyote is 50. From the first 500 days, we can see that since the population of sheep is higher. The population of coyote also start to increase at t= 125 days. At t = 250days, the population of coyote is 500 and at that time the population of sheep also decrease. The source of food for coyote is decrease so the population of coyote also decreases.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

From the above phase portrait we have one critical point. This critical point (188, a83) is an unstable period. All trajectories will move from the center of critical point and move to outside. This equilibrium point corresponds to a state of coexistence for both species. The population size remains at (188,183) level indefinitely. The population size for sheep will remain at 188 and the coyote population will remain at 183.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

b) Assuming that constant proportion of the population is depleted x= 0.0219x 0.00012 xy y= - 0.0003y + 0.0000024 xy 0.001y We are assume that 0.001 rate of death of coyote per year.

At t=0, the population of sheep is 2000 and the population of coyote is 50. The population of sheep increase up to 7800 and at t=125 days, the population of coyote also start increase. This is due to the increase of source of food, so the coyotes rate of growth rate will also increase. At t= 250 days, the population of coyote is 500 but the population of sheep also decrease. As the population of sheep decrease the population of coyote also decrease because lack of food source. At t=2000 days, the population of sheep become increase again and this is periodically every 2000 days

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

From phase potrait, we have two criticals point. First is (542,183) is an unstable center. All trajectories periodic and its shows that the coexistence of both species. The sheep is 542 and the coyote is 183 . the population size remains at this level forever. The second critical point is (0, 0) is unstable saddle point. All trajectories nearby approach this equilibrium and then depart from it. This equilibrium point correspond to a state of coexistence where theoretically, the population of both sheep and coyote remain at (0, 0) forever if the initial its closed to this critical point.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

6.4 Both of Sheep and Coyote are Affected i) Sheep and coyote affected by constant number.

x= 0.0219x 0.00012 xy 0.06 y= - 0.0003y + 0.0000024 xy 0.0274

The model for this graph are affected when 25 sheep are going to be sell each year while the 10 of coyotes die each year due to hunt . The graph above shows the population of sheep increases and decreases drastically from day zero to day 250 but decrease slowly after that. The population of coyote also increases slowly until day 250 but then decrease slowly. The populations of these two species are look to be constant for a long period which means they are coexist for a certain time period. Although, the populations are not look like to be constant or coexist after day 3250. They are look to be extinct. This is proven by the nature stability of its critical point or equilibrium point. At point (188, 180) all trajectories in the neighborhood of the fixed point spiral away from the fixed point with ever increasing radius. This show the system is unstable and behaves as an unstable oscillator.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

The nature of this stability can be visualized as a vector tracing a spiral away from the fixed point (a). The plot of response with time of this situation would look sinusoidal with ever-increasing amplitude (b), as shown below.

(a)

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

(b) This situation is undesirable when attempting to control the population of sheep and coyote. This is because if there is a change in the process, arising from the process itself or from an external disturbance, the system itself will not go back to steady state which means it show that as time goes the population will extinct. By looking to this result, we actually can help the shepherd to estimate their population of sheep each time. The model can help them to know what they should do or when they should put additional sheep to the cage to make the population of sheep remain exist and their business will not end.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

ii) Sheep and coyote affected by constant proportion.

x= 0.0219x 0.00012 xy 0.06 y= - 0.0003y + 0.0000024 xy 0.0274

The model for this graph are affected when assuming around 0.1 percent of sheep and coyotes population are going to be die each time. The graph above shows the population of these two species are periodic and the pattern periodic every 2000 days. This graph is look like the basic graph but the different is the pattern periodic for basic model is every 6000 to 7000 days and the maximum number that sheep can achieve is only 3500 compare than this model where the growth rate is higher because in every 2000 days the population of sheep can achieve 7050 sheep. For the modified one, it is better than the basic model because it has been considers the normal dies for the two species and period to the population recover is lesser with the higher maximum population.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

Based on the graph, when the population of sheep is high, the population of coyote will start increase but when the population of coyotes keeps increase the population of sheep will decrease. Then, the two populations will decrease. We can see for every period we have 3 phases, which are; 1st phase is from day zero to day 200 a) Population of sheep and coyote increase i) Population of sheep increase with normal birth rate ii) Population of coyote increase because have enough food when it interact with sheep as it food. nd 2) 2 phase from day 200 to day 250 a) Population of sheep decrease but population of coyote increase i) Population of sheep decreases because it has been eaten by coyote and dies normally. ii) Population of coyote increase because it still has food to be eaten and the growth is still not affected by the decreases of sheep population. rd 3) 3 phase from day 250 to day 2000 a) Sheep and coyote decrease i) Population of sheep decreases because it becomes the prey to coyote which are increases in the 2nd phase. ii) Population of coyote decreases because there is lack of food resources due to the drastically decreasing of sheep. 1) Since the graph is periodic, we know that the population of these two species will coexistent. This is proven with the nature of stability by looking to the phase portrait which show the trajectories of an equilibrium point (542,174). At this point, the trajectories will move around the critical point. This portrait shows the population of these two species will remain exist if there are no other significant forces by nature or by plan. The system behaves as a not damped oscillator.

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

This nature of stability can be visualized in two dimensions as a vector tracing a circle around a point (a). The plot of response with time would look sinusoidal (b). The figures as shown below;

(a)

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(b) This situation is common in many control system arising out of competing controllers and other factors. Even so, this is usually undesirable and considered as an unstable process since the system will not go back to steady state following a disturbance. This is because; the population is not remaining but always changes in the period of time. By looking to this result, we also can help the shepherd to estimate their population of sheep each time. They can know when the business can give them a better return and when they will get nothing due to the population of the sheep.

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7.0 CONCLUSION

In the present work, we have been determining the phase potrait and the nature of stability of each model that we have modified. The solution solved by using pplan8 and odesolve of Math lab. The nature of stability of critical point for each model has been achieved by using Jacobian matrix equation. From the findings, it is concluded that there is coexistence between the populations of two species. In this case, the species of coyote and sheep. In addition, both populations of the two species always changes in the period of time.

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8.0 REFERENCES

Beals M. et al. (1999). Predator-Prey Dynamics: Lotka-Volterra. Retrieved June 15, 2013, from http://www.tiem.utk.edu/~gross/bioed/bealsmodules/predator-prey.html

Learn Cheme (2012). Predator - prey Model Kinetics. University of Colorado Boulder. Retrived June 14, 2013, from

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7o5XweHevbQ

National Geographic Society (2013). Coyote. Retrieved June 14, 2013, from National Geographic Site: http://animals.nationalgeographic.com

Ncwildlife (2012). Fox and Coyote Populations Study. Retrieved June 15, 2013, from Ncwildlife site: http://www.ncwildlife.org/Portals/0/Learning/documents/Species/Fox_Coyot ePopulationsReport.pdf Takeuchi Y. et al. (2005). Evolution of predatorprey systems described by a Volterra equation under random environment. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications. J. Math. Anal. Appl. 323, 938957. Lotka

Wanda Embar (2007). Sheep. Retrieved June 15, 2013, from veganpeace site: http://www.veganpeace.com/animal_facts/Sheep.htm

Wikipedia

(2013).

Sheep.

Retrieved

June

15,

2013,

from

Wikipedia

site:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domestic_sheep

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The Effect of Sheep's Populations in the Presence of Coyote

9.0 APPENDICS

Let the nonlinear autonomous system be ( )

And (

) is the critical point.

Jacobian matrix :

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