CHAPTER 1 A Problem Solving Technique

Beginning the process of solving a problem can sometimes be the most difficult part of the process. In many circumstances more information is needed than is available. The painless decision to bypass the tedious process of collecting information is easy to justify. The time required to look closely at all aspects of a problem before recommending a solution is often not available. Problem diagnosis and solutions, however, are often expected readily. How then are many problems solved? Often they are solved by individuals with experience in facing and resolving similar situations. Even if all of the information required becomes available, conclusions may be difficult to reach unless an experienced eye fits the pieces of information into a realistic picture. Obviously, gaining experience in solving problems is not achieved quickly. However, there are techniques which can be used to help focus on the most important components of a problem and to eliminate other factors. Described below is a technique taken from the book written by Charles H. Kepner and Benjamin B. Tregoe entitled The New Rational Manager, Princeton Research Press, 1981. This straightforward process of problem analysis is excellent in providing steps to help identify and focus on the vital information needed to identify and solve problems.

Kepner - Tregoe Problem Analysis Technique

IDENTITY WHAT is observed? LOCATION WHERE IS the problem observed? TIMING WHEN IS the problem observed? MAGNITUDE HOW MANY occurrences are observed? WHAT COULD BE but IS NOT observed? WHERE COULD the problem be but IS NOT observed? WHEN COULD the problem be but IS NOT observed? HOW many occurrences COULD BE but ARE NOT observed?

If answers to the above series of questions can be obtained, it is relatively easy to focus in on the actual cause and source of a problem. The strength of the KepnerTregoe technique is that it helps to eliminate much of the "hearsay" information and will fortify the relevant information. The following example describing a gasoline contamination problem may be used to clarify the effectiveness of the Kepner-Tregoe technique: Problem Scenario A retail marketer of gasoline received numerous complaints from customers regarding engine shutdown after fueling at the retailer's service station. Complaints came from customers who fueled with premium grade gasoline. Complaints were all received within a twoweek time frame in January. Below freezing overnight and daytime temperatures were common throughout this same two-week time span in January. The fuel retailer could not pinpoint the source of the problem since complaints were coming from customers who purchased premium grade fuel at different stations throughout the area. The problem began shortly after the retailer switched to a new gasoline additive for use in both regular and premium grade gasoline. Immediately, the gasoline additive supplier was contacted by the retailer to help resolve this problem. In the retailer's eyes, the customer complaints began immediately after initiating use of the new fuel additive. Therefore, the additive was probably the cause of the engine shutdown problem. To resolve the problem, personnel from the gasoline additive supplier worked with the customer to collect service station gasoline samples, customer fuel filters, and samples of gasoline from the retailer's local service stations and from the fuel distribition terminal. All of these samples were thoroughly analyzed. Also, January fuel delivery records were closely audited. From the information collected, the following observations were made: WHAT IS observed? - Engine shutdown was observed in vehicles using premium unleaded gasoline. - All gasoline was distributed to local service stations from a single fuel terminal. - Water was found on the bottom of several service station fuel tanks. Water contained high levels of iron (rust), magnesium, sodium and calcium. - Mg:Ca ratios were close to 3:1. These Mg:Ca ratios are typical of sea water, not fresh water.

- Iron (rust), magnesium, silica, sodium and calcium were identified on customer fuel filters. What COULD BE but IS NOT observed? - Problems in vehicles using regular unleaded gasoline were not observed. - Gasoline additive was not observed on customer fuel filters. WHERE IS the problem observed? - Interviews with customers revealed that fuel purchases were from 15 service station locations. WHERE COULD the problem be but IS NOT observed? - Problems were not reported from customers who fueled from 140 of the retailer's remaining service stations. WHEN IS the problem observed? - Within a two-week time period in January. WHEN COULD the problem be but IS NOT observed? - Continuously HOW MANY occurrences? 33 HOW MANY occurrences COULD BE but ARE NOT observed? >5,000 OBSERVATIONS FROM DISTRIBUTION TERMINAL TANK RECORDS An oceangoing barge delivery of premium unleaded gasoline was off-loaded into terminal storage four days before the first customer complaint was received. Storage tank records indicate that the 1,250 gallons of water settled from the fuel after 24 hours in storage. Present tank records show a water level of zero gallons in the terminal storage tank. Premium unleaded gasoline was delivered from this terminal to over 160 different service station locations during the two-week time period that customer complaints were received. Two additional barge loads of fuel were off-loaded into the same terminal storage tank during this two-week period. From the information collected, the following conclusions can be made: - Engine shutdown occurred within a two-week time period in January. - Problem fuel was purchased from a limited number of stations. - All fuel was distributed from a single terminal source.

- Fuel off-loaded from the barge contained significant levels of water. - Significant levels of water are no longer observed in the terminal tank. - Service station gasoline tanks contain water with a chemical composition (Mg and Ca) similar to sea water. Iron (rust) and sodium were also found. - Metal contaminents found on customer fuel filters are similar to those found in service station tank water. CAUSE OF THE PROBLEM Water (Ice?) and Corrosion Products in Fuel Lines Sea water and corrosion products were delivered with premium gasoline by barge to the fuel distribution terminal storage tanks. The water settled to the bottom of the terminal tank and was drawn off with fuel and delivered to service station tanks. Customers fueling at these service stations pumped premium gasoline containing sea water and corrosion products into their automobiles. The fuel filters were then partially blocked by rust and corrosion products carried by the water. Below-freezing temperatures possibly initiated the formation of ice within fuel filters and in fuel lines containing water. The combination of ice and corrosion products blocked fuel flow through vehicle fuel lines and filters. Gasoline flow to the engine was halted and engine shutdown followed. Not all service stations receiving premium unleaded fuel from the distribution terminal were affected. Only a limited number of stations received fuel containing water and corrosion products. This explained the random nature and limited scope of the vehicle problems. By using the Kepner-Tregoe approach to problem solving, information can be collected in a manner which seems to "focus in" on only the critical details of a problem. Once collected, the information can be compiled into a format which enables one to develop logical conclusions and to determine the cause of a problem.