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Global and Planetary Change 75 (2011) 21–30

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Global and Planetary Change

j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s ev i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / g l o p l a c h a

Variations of Indian summer monsoon rainfall induce the weakening of easterly jet
stream in the warming environment?
C.V. Naidu, K. Muni Krishna ⁎, S. Ramalingeswara Rao, O.S.R.U. Bhanu Kumar,
K. Durgalakshmi, S.S.V.S. Ramakrishna
Dept of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, India

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The 11-year running averages of all India summer monsoon rainfall during 1877–2006 reveal two extreme
Received 29 May 2009 active monsoon epochs (1884–1894 and 1954–1964) and two extreme weak monsoon epochs (1895–1905
Accepted 9 October 2010 and 1995–2005). The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is available from 1948 onwards. So for the recent two
Available online 21 October 2010
epochs (1954–1964 and 1995–2005), different parameters such as mean seasonal values of air temperatures,
zonal and meridional winds at two levels, 850 hPa and 150 hPa and latent heat flux in the domain of 30°E–
Keywords:
summer monsoon
120°E and 30°S–40°N are analyzed. Intensified easterly jet stream is observed in good monsoon epoch. India
rainfall received copious amounts of rainfall during good monsoon epoch. Release of latent heat due to these high
circulation amounts of rainfall leads to high north–south temperature gradient which may be responsible for the
latent heat flux strengthening of tropical easterly jet stream at the upper troposphere during active monsoon epoch. Opposite
features are observed for weak monsoon epoch. In the period 1995–2004, with the exception of 1996, are
among the warmest 10 years on record and 1998 the warmest year. India experienced a weak summer
monsoon epoch (1995–2005) which is closely associated with weak tropical easterly jet stream. This period is
very much coinciding with the warmest decade. The weakened easterly jet stream (upper troposphere) is
ultimately due to the reduced moisture advection as associated with weaker surface westerlies, and thus
rainfall.
© 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
The Indian summer monsoon, which is a part of global circulation,
provides abundant amounts of rainfall which demonstrate spatial as well
as temporal variations. The summer monsoon exhibits variability in a
variety of time scales, intraseasonal, interannual, interdecadal and beyond.
Various components of the Asian summer monsoon system exhibit
significant interdecadal variability (Joseph (1976), Parthasarathy and
Mooley (1978), Bhalme and Mooley (1980), Mooley and Parthasarathy,
1984; Kripalani et al., 1997; Mehta and Lau, 1997; Chang et al., 2001, 2000;
Parthasarathy et al., 1991; Wu and Wang, 2002), which may be connected
to climate variations of a more global scale (see e.g., Folland et al (1986)).
The gradient in SST between northern and southern hemispheres also
seems to vary on this time scale.
The Indian monsoon is known to have gone through alternating
epochs of above normal and below normal conditions, each lasting
about three decades. This is reflected in the rainfall amount which varies
about the long-term mean, revealing runs of anomalously wet and dry
years (Krishnamurthy and Goswami, 2000, Kripalani and Kulkarni,
⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: + 91 891 2844639; fax: + 91 891 2525611.
E-mail address: kailasam15@yahoo.co.in (K.M. Krishna).
2001, see also Fig. 1). An active/weak monsoon is associated with
anomalous ascent around 25°N/ near the equator (Goswami et al.,
1999). In particular, the Indian monsoon is known to be related to ENSO
variability on these interdecadal time scales (Krishnamurthy and
Goswami, 2000): the decrease in the Indian monsoon rainfall is
associated with the warm phases of ENSO due to an anomalous regional
Hadley circulation with descending motion over the Indian continent
and ascending motion near the equator sustained by the ascending
phase of the anomalous Walker circulation in the equatorial Indian
Ocean. The interdecadal variability is evident in various monsoon
parameters such as in all India monsoon rainfall (Parthasarathy et al.,
1994; Kripalani and Kulkarni 1997, Kripalani et al. 1997, Webster et al.
1998), the frequency of cyclones in Indian monsoon region (Joseph,
1976), homogeneous monsoon rainfall covering the northwestern and
central parts of India (Parthasarathy et al., 1993) and the circulation
features such as the April position of the 500 hPa ridge (Kripalani et al.,
1997). The behaviour of the interdecadal epochs of the monsoon may
have great socioeconomic impact in South Asia region.
Rainfall is maximum over the west coast (200–290 cm) and
northeastern parts (153–222 cm) of India, moderate over the central
parts (70–120 cm) of India and minimum over northwestern (25–
45 cm) and southeastern parts (Shukla, 1987).
A strong cross equatorial low level jet stream is responsible for the
variations of summer monsoon rainfall over India. It exists with its core

0921-8181/$ – see front matter © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.10.001
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22 C.V. Naidu et al. / Global and Planetary Change 75 (2011) 21–30
Fig. 1. (A) Time series of all-India summer monsoon rainfall and (B) 11-year running averages of all-India summer monsoon rainfall anomaly (1959 and 2000 denote active monsoon
(1954–1964) and weak monsoon epochs (1995–2005) respectively in the recent decades).
close to 850 hPa level over the Indian Ocean and south Asia
(Koteswaram, 1958, Joseph and Raman, 1966 and Findlater 1969) and
brings the moisture generated by trade winds over the south Indian
Ocean and the evaporative flux from the Arabian Sea to the areas of
rainfall production over south Asia. The cyclonic vorticity north of this
jet in the atmospheric boundary layer is a dynamic forcing for the
generation of vertical upward air motion and rainfall and for the genesis
of depressions in the north Bay of Bengal (Joseph and Simon, 2005).
During active monsoon period the core of the Jet passes eastward
through peninsular India in between 12.5° N and 17.5°N; whereas in the
break monsoon, it moves southeastward from the central Arabian Sea
and by-passing India passes eastward between latitudes 2.5° N and
7.5°N (Joseph and Sijikumar, 2004). The presence of a strong low level
jet over peninsular India favors the formation of monsoon depressions
in the north Bay of Bengal (Sikka, 1977). Generally the monsoon
depressions form over the north Bay of Bengal north of 18° N during the
period, June through September and move in west–north-westerly
direction along the Ganges valley up to the central parts of the country
before weakening (Rao, 1976). Rainfall is high to the left of their tracks. If
they take more northern track over northern India, the Ganges plains
receive good rains with corresponding deficiency over central India and
northern peninsula. When they follow a more southern course over
central India, the central parts of India and Gujarat experience good
amounts of rainfall and there is a deficiency over the north. The wind
convergence is strong in the southwestern sector of the depression area
(Subbaramayya, 1961). The absence of these depressions in July and
August causes the rainfall deficit up to 40% over different parts of India
(Raghavan, 1967 and Dhar and Rakhecha, 1976).
Several authors suggested that baroclinic instability is responsible
for the generation of the monsoon depressions (Shukla, 1977, 1978;
Mishra and Salvekar, 1980; Moorti and Arakawa, 1985). They
considered the baroclinic instability of the zonal wind with easterly
shear associated with tropical easterly jet. They showed that higher
(lower) wind shear leads to higher (lower) growth rates with or
without the cumulus heating.
After approaching the Indian coastline as a southwesterly current,
the monsoon air is deflected to the northeastern region of India and
northern parts of Burma. Subsequently, it flows along the plains of
northern India and southern periphery of the Himalayas as an easterly
current. The flow of air is around a quasi-permanent zone of low
pressure over the plains of northern India. This is referred to as the
monsoon trough. Its axis is oriented in northwest–southeast direction
and runs parallel to the southern edge of Himalayas representing a
line of symmetry between westerly or southwesterly winds to the
south and easterly or southeasterly winds to its north. It passes
through Delhi, Allahabad and Kolkatta. Active phases of monsoon are
associated with the southward shift of its axis from normal position
and its eastern end dips into Bay of Bengal. In such a situation there is
heavy rain over plains of northern India, the central parts of India, and
along the west coast. An extension of the axis into the Bay of Bengal is
often the precursor of a Bay depression. Once a depression is formed,
it is followed by an increase in rainfall intensity over those parts of
central India that lie to south of the axis (Das, 1987).
The monsoon current picks up copious amounts of moisture by
evaporation from the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. This moisture is
essential not only for the monsoonal rainfall but also important as a
driving force for the monsoon as the latent heat release in the monsoon
trough strengthens the monsoon circulation. More moisture transport
leads to active monsoon conditions which are indicated by dense
multilayered and convective clouds over the central parts of the country,
the eastern Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and strong low level
(westerly/southwesterly) flow over the Arabian Sea often with a low
level jet of strength, 25–30 m/s below 850 mb level (Keshavamurthy
and Sankara Rao, 1992). India experienced frequent large-scale
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C.V. Naidu et al. / Global and Planetary Change 75 (2011) 21–30 23

droughts in summer monsoon during 1891–1920 and 1961–1975 and age zonal component anomaly at 100 hPa as well as at 850 hPa and
only a few in the intervening period (Bhalme and Mooley, 1980). The the surface air temperature anomalies for the domain (50°E–100°E,
conditions for large-scale droughts are weak meridional pressure 10°N–15°N) is evaluated. (When compared to the zonal wind at
gradients, larger northward seasonal shifts of the monsoon trough, 150 hPa, the zonal wind at 100 hPa is correlated highly with surface
larger number of days in the breaks of the monsoon, smaller frequency air temperature anomalies for the above domain. So, 100 hPa level is
of depressions and shorter westward extent of depression tracks, and chosen.) In addition to this, the variation of the frequency of cyclonic
abnormally low 200-hpa surface in May in the latitude belt 15°–30°N systems generated in the Bay of Bengal is also studied.
along 70°E. Opposite features were reported in large-scale floods
(Bhalme and Mooley, 1980). Awade et al. (1985) observed larger 3. Results and discussion
northward transport of momentum in the upper troposphere across
30°N in wet monsoon years than in dry monsoon years in both pre- The all-India summer monsoon rainfall record is shown in Fig. 1A.
monsoon and monsoon months. In wet monsoon years, there is large Rainfall anomalies are obtained by first removing the long-term mean
divergence in the momentum transport in sub-tropics, while there is from this raw time series and then applying 11-year running averages
large convergence in middle latitudes. In dry monsoon year, there is (Fig. 1B). This analysis reveals the decadal variation of rainfall
large divergence of sensible heat in sub-tropics and large convergence in averaged over India. In the beginning of the record, active monsoon
the middle latitudes in mid troposphere. conditions prevail until 1897. This is followed by generally weak
In view of the importance of rainfall, we examined the decadal monsoon conditions throughout 1898–1928 and active conditions
variability of all-India summer monsoon rainfall and also the cir- over the following 3.5 decades (1929–1963). After that in general the
culation patterns over India and the neighbourhood, cyclonic activity weak monsoon conditions are continuing. The results pinpoint that
over the Bay of Bengal, surface air temperatures over the domain active/weak monsoon conditions occurred continuously for 3 to 3.5
(50°E–100°E, 10°N–15°N) which are connected well with the rainfall decades rather than scatter randomly. In the first half of the time
activity for the recent active and weak monsoon epochs. series, India experienced two extreme epochs during 1884–1894
(wet/active monsoon) and 1895–1905 (dry/weak monsoon). In the
2. Data and methodology latter half of the time series, there were two epochs i.e., active
monsoon epoch (1954–1964) and weak monsoon epoch (1995–
Parthasarathy et al. (1994) evaluated the area-weighted all-India 2005). For the recent two extreme epochs the circulation patterns as
rainfall for all the twelve months by considering 29 meteorological well as thermal features are studied by using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis
subdivisions and excluding the hilly regions due to sparse rain gauge data from 1948 to 2006.
network. Later, East Madhya Pradesh meteorological subdivision was
divided into two parts and the data was restructured by the Indian 3.1. Thermal and circulation patterns during active and weak monsoon
Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India and kept in their web site epochs
(www.tropmet.res.in). This rainfall data set for summer monsoon season
(June through September) for the period, 1877 to 2006 is considered. 3.1.1. Zonal wind vertical profile during active and weak monsoon
Other data sets including air temperatures and wind at two standard epochs
levels, 850 hPa and 150 hPa, zonal wind at 17 levels, latent heat flux The composite vertical structure of the zonal wind component
covering a 59-year (1948–2006) period for the domain 30°E–120°E and which is averaged for the domain (50°E–100°E, 10°N–15°N) for the
30°S–40°N and surface air temperatures for the domain (50°E–100°E, active and weak monsoon epochs are shown in Fig. 2. In active
10°N–15°N) are taken from the National Centers for Environment monsoon condition, the strength of the surface westerlies is about
Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) 7 m/s. Wind intensity increases sharply with height and reaches a
reanalysis datasets (Kalnay et al., 1996). These are monthly data sets. maximum of 12 m/s at 850 hPa. Then the strength decreases with
The frequencies (number per monsoon season) of the total cyclonic height. At 400 hPa, westerlies turn to easterlies and their strength
systems (sum of the frequencies of depressions, storms and severe
storms) generated over the Bay of Bengal during June through
September for the period 1877–2006 are obtained from the published
report of the India Meteorological Department (1979) and from the
weather reports published in Mausam journals (1972–2007) by the
India Meteorological Department.
The decadal variations of all-India summer monsoon rainfall for the
period, 1877 to 2006 are studied by subjecting the series, which is
obtained by subtracting the long-term mean from the rainfall amounts, to
11-year running averages. Here extreme epochs are identified depending
on the magnitude of the deviation from the long-term mean. If the
magnitude of the deviation of a particular 11-year sample is relatively
higher in the surrounding samples and is equal to 0.5 times standard
deviation or more, it is considered as extreme. For two extreme epochs
(active and weak) in the recent past decades, the composite monsoonal
thermal patterns, anomaly patterns of the latent heat flux over the north
Indian ocean and anomaly circulation patterns in the lower (850 hPa)
and upper (150 hPa) troposphere are examined. Further the vertical
structure of the averaged zonal wind in monsoon season for the domain
(50°E–100°E, 10°N–15°N), where the tropical easterly jet stream is
mainly concentrated, has been depicted for these epochs.
Next, the variations of the summer monsoon rainfall over India are
studied with respect to those of the latent heat flux values over the
Bay of Bengal region (80°E–93°E, 10°N–20°N) and the Arabian Sea Fig. 2. Vertical profile of zonal wind component for the domain (50°E–100°E, 10°N–15°N)
region (65°E–72°E, 10°N–20°N). The relationship between the aver- during active and weak monsoon epochs.
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24 C.V. Naidu et al. / Global and Planetary Change 75 (2011) 21–30
increases with height and reaches peak value of 35 m/s at 100 hPa.
This magnitude surpasses the limit of minimum jet speed (30 m/s).
Then its strength decreases with height up to 50 hPa level and
thereafter it increases with height.
Fig. 2 reveals one important point that the vertical structure of
zonal wind of active monsoon epoch is similar to that of weak
monsoon epoch with differences in the magnitude at various levels.
For weak monsoon epoch, the strength and the depth of the westerlies
are less. Further, the upper limit of the westerlies lies at about 440 hPa
compared to 400 hPa, which is the upper limit for the westerlies of
active monsoon epoch. In the layer 400–200 hPa, the easterlies of
active monsoon epoch are relatively weaker; thereafter the easterlies
intensify and exceed the minimum jet speed. But in the case of weak
monsoon epoch, the zonal wind in 150–100 hPa seems to be constant,
28 m/s. This may be due to the sparse sampling in the vertical. It is
apparent from the Fig. 2 that the wind shear is stronger in the active
monsoon epoch than in the weak monsoon epoch.
3.1.2. Thermal patterns
3.1.2.1. 850 hPa. The thermal features at 850 hPa in active and weak
monsoon epochs infer some important differences (Fig. 3). Over the
Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea and Indian subcontinent the north–south
temperature gradient is steeper and more positive during the active
monsoon epoch when compared to that of the weak monsoon epoch.
This high north–south temperature gradient facilitates the formation
of intensified monsoon winds and hence the transport of high
amounts of moisture from the Arabian Sea to the Indian mainland.
Ultimately it results in active conditions over India.
Fig. 3. Air temperature anomaly patterns of the atmosphere at 850 hPa and 150 hPa for active (left panel) and weak (right panel) monsoon epochs (temperature in °C).
3.1.2.2. 150 hPa. Over northern India the upper troposphere is
relatively warmer during active monsoon epoch (150 hPa) as in the
case of lower troposphere (Fig. 3). During active monsoon conditions,
abundant amounts of rainfall occur over monsoon core area. During
the process of condensation, large amounts of latent heat will be
released and given to the atmospheric system. This enhances the
temperature over northern India at 150 hPa.
The composite temperatures during the active monsoon epoch are
subtracted from those of weak monsoon epoch. These differences at
850 hPa and 150 hPa are shown in Fig. 4 along with the corresponding
temperatures in active monsoon epoch. The temperature differences
in the upper and lower troposphere are negative over northern parts
of India when compared to southern parts.
3.1.3. Circulation patterns
3.1.3.1. 850 hPa. The authors wish to note differences between the
anomaly circulation features associated with active and weak mon-
soon epochs. Anomalies in both the zonal and meridional components
for the epochs are obtained by subtracting the long-term mean wind
components from the corresponding actual values. The anomalies of
zonal and meridional components are combined vectorially to obtain
the resultant winds. They infer that the cross equatorial flow and the
low level jet across the western coast of India exhibited maximum
intensity for active monsoon epoch (Fig. 5) and the reverse is true for
weak monsoon epoch.
The anomalies in active monsoon epoch showed westerlies over
southern parts and easterlies over northern parts. In between these
two, an anomaly trough extends from northwestern parts to the Head
Bay of Bengal. This indicates a strong westerly belt to the south of the
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C.V. Naidu et al. / Global and Planetary Change 75 (2011) 21–30
Fig. 4. The composite temperatures of the atmosphere at 850 hPa and 150 hPa for active monsoon epoch (left panel) and the composite temperature differences at 850 hPa and
150 hPa (weak monsoon epoch temperature minus active monsoon epoch temperature) (right panel).
monsoon trough in active monsoon decade, which helps to enhance
monsoon activity by picking up the moisture from south and central
Arabian Sea and transporting the moisture to the Indian mainland.
Generally over north India the deflected monsoon (southeasterly/
easterly belt) persists. The presence of easterly anomalies indicates
the presence of a strong deflected monsoon during the active mon-
soon epoch. This facilitates more evaporation from the Bay of Bengal
and transports more moisture to the Indian mainland.
In the weak monsoon epoch the reverse is true. Easterly anomalies
in most parts of the Arabian Sea and south peninsular India indicate
weak westerlies over these regions in the lower troposphere. Thus
moisture transport from the Arabian Sea will be diminished due to the
presence of weak westerlies. At the same time over the north India,
north of 25°N the anomalies are positive, which indicate a weak
deflected monsoon. From the above anomalies and their patterns we
may come to the conclusion that the strength of (1) the westerlies
over the Arabian Sea and the India south of 20°N and (2) deflected
monsoon over northern India will be a key factor for deciding the
monsoon behavior. If the strength of these two branches is reduced, it
will result in poor moisture transport causing the weak monsoon. If
the two branches are intensified one can expect an active monsoon
situation due to the transport of more moisture to the rainfall area.
3.1.3.2. 150 hPa. Anomaly picture (Fig. 5) indicates differences clearly
between the weak and active monsoon situations. Easterly anomalies
are dominant over the equatorial Indian Ocean in active monsoon
situation. This indicates that the easterly jet is intensified in an active
monsoon situation. In the case of weak monsoon, over the equatorial
Indian Ocean the anomalies are westerlies, which infer the weakening
25
of easterly jet. From these observations one can say that the strength
of the easterly jet is an indication of the activity of monsoon over the
Indian subcontinent.
The composite winds during active monsoon epoch are subtracted
from those of weak monsoon epoch. These differences in the lower and
upper troposphere are presented in Fig. 6 along with the corresponding
winds in active monsoon epoch. These differences in the lower
troposphere clearly reveal important features like the dominance of
southwesterly flow in southern latitudes of India, presence of strong
deflected monsoon flow over the northern latitudes of India and well
marked monsoon trough in active monsoon epoch. The differences
in the upper troposphere pinpoint the existence of strong easterly flow
in active monsoon epoch. Fig. 6 reveals opposite features for weak
monsoon epoch.
3.2. Anomaly latent heat flux and monsoon activity
The latent heat flux anomaly values are calculated by subtracting
the long-term (59 year) mean values from the corresponding actual
values. In the active monsoon epoch, positive anomalies ranging from
10 to 30 W/m2 are observed over the eastern Arabian Sea and the
entire Bay of Bengal (Fig. 7). On the other hand, the weak monsoon
epoch exhibits negative latent flux anomalies (−10 to −20 W/m2)
over these two regions.
The latent heat flux anomaly values over the Bay of Bengal region
(80°E–93°E, 10°N–20°N) and the Arabian Sea region (65°E–72°E,
10°N–20°N) showed the same sign and high magnitudes with respect
to India summer monsoon rainfall variability. So these two regions
have been considered. The 11-year running averages of all India
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26 C.V. Naidu et al. / Global and Planetary Change 75 (2011) 21–30
Fig. 5. Anomaly circulation patterns at 850 hPa and 150 hPa for active (left panel) and weak (right panel) monsoon epochs (wind speed in m/s). (Anomaly zonal/meridional winds of
an epoch are the deviations from the corresponding long-term mean. These anomaly wind components are vectorially combined and then anomaly stream lines are plotted).
summer monsoon rainfall and latent heat flux values over these two
regions have been calculated and presented in Fig. 8. As shown in
Fig. 8, the 11-year running averages of the anomaly over these regions
exhibit similarity, but with apparent differences after 1997. These two
fluxes show positive relationship with monsoon rainfall. But the
decadal variations of these fluxes are not strictly following the pattern
of monsoon rainfall. In some years they show out of phase relation-
ships with rainfall. This diagram reveals that latent heat fluxes over
these regions are not the only important factors determining the
activity of summer monsoon. The transport of moisture from other
regions of Indian Ocean may also play an important role to enhance
the summer monsoon rainfall over India.
The differences of latent heat flux values (composite values in
weak epoch minus composite values in active epoch) along with the
latent heat flux values in active monsoon epoch are presented in Fig. 9.
These differences are negative and ranging from −20 to −60 W/m2
over major parts of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
3.3. Relation between zonal wind and surface air temperature
The average zonal wind anomaly at 100 hPa and the surface air
temperature anomalies for the domain (50°E–100°E, 10°N–15°N)
showed inter-annual variations (figure not shown). These two time
series are strongly and positively correlated with the magnitude of
0.65 which is statistically significant at more than 0.01% level during
the period 1948–2006. This relationship is quite interesting and
suggests examination of the inter-decadal dependency of these two
parameters. So the two series are subjected to 11-year running
averages and the values are depicted in Fig. 10. They showed a robust
positive (0.96) relationship.
The above two series are detrended and the relationship between
the detrended values is positive with a correlation value of 0.10. The 11-
year average values of the detrented time series showed the marked
relationship with a correlation of 0.56 which is statistically significant at
more than 0.1% level. In the recent decades warming of the Northern
Hemisphere took place. Here it is observed that the warming
environment inhibits the strength of the easterly jet stream over India
and adjoining seas. In the recent years the rainfall is also decreased. A
low amount of rainfall suppresses the amounts of latent heat released
and supplied to the atmospheric system and ultimately results in the
weakening of the easterly jet stream in the upper troposphere.
The above analysis is extended for the zonal wind anomaly at
850 hPa; the two parameters also showed inter-annual variations
(Figure not shown). These two time series are significantly and
negatively correlated (−0.45) at 0.1% level during the period 1948–
2006. The 11 year averages showed a strong negative (−0.91)
relationship. Normalized correlations adapted from Sciremammano
(1979) encourage these results.
The relationship between the detrended values is also significant
at 5% level with a correlation value of −0.35. The 11-year average
values of the detrended time series showed a significant negative
correlation (−0.86) which is also statistically significant at more than
0.001% level. The results suggest that the warming environment is
associated with weaker westerly flow in the lower troposphere over
India and adjoining seas. The decrease in the strength of the westerly
flow reduces the moisture transport towards India.
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C.V. Naidu et al. / Global and Planetary Change 75 (2011) 21–30 27

Fig. 6. The composite winds at 850 hPa and 150 hPa for active monsoon epoch (left panel) and the composite wind differences at 850 hPa and 150 hPa (The zonal wind differences
(weak monsoon epoch zonal wind minus active monsoon epoch zonal wind) and meridional wind differences are vectorially combined) (right panel).

3.4. Variability of the frequency of Cyclonic systems during summer is a decreasing tendency in the frequency of cyclones in the recent four
monsoon season decades, which is closely connected with the tendency of rainfall.

The 11-year averages of the anomaly cyclonic systems formed over
the Bay of Bengal are depicted in Fig. 11. This series showed decadal
variations. The positive anomaly persisted for about three decades (from
the beginning to about 1900). Then it reversed and continued till 1918. A
positive anomaly existed between 1919 and 1969. Thereafter the
cyclonic systems drastically decreased and the trend is continued. There
4. Conclusions
The present study reveals two extreme active monsoon epochs
(1884–1894 and 1954–1964) and two extreme weak monsoon
epochs (1895–1905 and 1995–2005) and compares the atmospheric
variables for the most recent epochs (1954–1964 and 1995–2005) for

Fig. 7. Latent heat flux anomaly for active (left panel) and weak (right panel) monsoon epochs (in W/m²).
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28 C.V. Naidu et al. / Global and Planetary Change 75 (2011) 21–30

Fig. 8. Decadal variation of normalized latent heat flux over the Bay of Bengal region (80°E–93°E, 10°N–20°N) and the Arabian Sea region (65°E–72°E, 10°N–20°N) and all India
monsoon rainfall.

which the observational data are available. In the active monsoon
epoch, the westerly belt in the latitudes to south of monsoon trough
and easterly belt in the latitudes north of the trough are quite
pronounced at 850-hPa during June through September. This is an
indication of strengthening of the monsoon trough over India, and
inflow of air due to the two branches coming from the Arabian Sea and
the Bay of Bengal enhances the transport of moisture to the monsoon
trough. Ultimately this situation leads to formation of more rainfall
over India during monsoon months. In the weak monsoon epoch,
opposite features are observed; weak westerlies/easterlies to the
south/north of trough reduce the inflow of moisture from the regions
of the Arabian Sea/the Bay of Bengal. In active monsoon epoch, the
intensity of tropical easterly jet stream is enhanced during June
through September. In the weak monsoon epoch, the strength of the
easterly jet stream is reduced.
Bhaskar Rao et al (2001) reported that total cyclonic systems
indicated decreasing tendency after the 1970s which may coincide
with global warming during the last three decades. The absence of
monsoon depressions in July and August reduces the rainfall activity
over India and even causes up to 40% deficit over different parts of the
country (Raghavan, 1967 and Dhar and Rakhecha, 1976).
Bengtsson et al. (1996) reported that doubling of CO2 reduces the
number of cyclonic storms. The reduced cyclonic activity during the
recent decades agrees with the above two studies. From the results on
the latent heat flux it can be concluded that both the Arabian Sea and
the Bay of Bengal play an important role for the enhancement of
evaporation in an active monsoon epoch. The enhanced water vapour
is transported to the Indian mainland through a branch of the
monsoon current from the Arabian Sea and another from the Bay of
Bengal. Release of latent heat enhances the north–south temperature
gradient and hence monsoon meridional circulation and the zonal
winds during active monsoon, so winds strengthen in the upper
troposphere. The enhanced north–south temperature gradient may
be responsible for the strengthening of tropical easterly jet stream at
the upper troposphere during active monsoon epoch. Opposite
features are observed for weak monsoon epoch.
Kripalani et al. (2003) opined that there is no clear evidence to
suggest that the strength and variability of the Indian monsoon
rainfall nor the epochal changes are affected by the global warming. In
the period 1995–2004, with exception of 1996, are among the
warmest 10 years on record and 1998 the warmest year. In the
Northern Hemisphere, the 1990s were the warmest decade with an
average 0.38° C. The surface temperature averaged over recent 5 years
(2000–2004) was, however, much higher (0.58° C) (Taken from a
website, website reference is given at the end of the references
section). The present results indicate that India experienced a weak

Fig. 9. The composite latent heat flux for active monsoon epoch (left panel) and the composite latent heat differences (latent heat in weak monsoon epoch minus latent heat in active
monsoon epoch) (right panel).
 Author's personal copy
C.V. Naidu et al. / Global and Planetary Change 75 (2011) 21–30
Fig. 10. 11 year running averages of zonal wind at 850 hPa and 100 hPa and air tem-
perature anomalies for the domain, 50°E–100°E, 10°N–15°N.
summer monsoon epoch (1995–2005) which is closely associated
with weak tropical easterly jet stream. This period is very much
coinciding with the warmest decade. The weakened easterly jet
stream (upper troposphere) is ultimately due to the reduced moisture
advection as associated with weaker surface westerlies, and thus
rainfall.
Chung and Ramanathan (2006) reported that the sea surface tem-
peratures in the equatorial Indian ocean have warmed by about 0.6 to
0.8 K since the 1950s accompanied by slight warming trend over north
Indian Ocean. This differential trend has resulted in a substantial
weakening of the meridional SST gradient from the equatorial region to
the south Asian coast during summer, to the extent that the gradient has
nearly vanished recently. According to their simulation studies, summer
time weakening in SST gradient weakens the monsoon circulation leads to
less monsoon rainfall over India and excess rainfall in sub-Saharan Africa.
Further the weakening of north–south SST gradient over the north Indian
Ocean region is responsible for the decrease of summer monsoon rainfall
over major number of subdivisions (Naidu et al., 2009). From the present
results and the above mentioned past works, we can conclude that the
weakening of Indian summer monsoon rainfall activity induces the weak
tropical easterly jet stream over India and neighbouring area in the
warming environment.
Fig. 11. 11 year running averages of the frequency of cyclonic systems over the Bay of Bengal during summer monsoon season.
29
Acknowledgements
The authors K. Muni Krishna and S. Ramalingeswara Rao are
thankful to the Department of Science and Technology, Govt. of India,
New Delhi for providing financial support through the research
projects (SR/FTP/ES-09/2008 and SR/FTP/ES-31/2008). We are also
grateful to NCEP team for wind, temperature data, I.I.T.M., Pune for
sub-divisional rainfall data and IMD for cyclone data for this study.
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