Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
What FACTORS should the forecaster monitor? What EXTERNAL FACTORS shape the spirit of the times? Paul Nystrom, professor of marketing at the Columbia University, defined in 1928 a list of factors that guide and influence the character and direction of fashion His list still provides a framework for observing the Zeitgeist
DOMINATING EVENTS
Significant Si ifi t occurences such h as war, th the d death th of f world leaders Art vogues (the Russian Ballet and modern art, art the influence of pop and psychedelic art on the fashions of 1960s and 1970s) Popular events: the Academy Awards ceremony with its celebrity fashion parade, the Olympic Games (on active wearfor athletes and on casual wear for mainstream consumers) Unexpected p events: the end of Cold War, the 1990s bull market on the Stock Exchange, Internet, 9/11
DOMINATING IDEALS
BEFORE: patriotism BEFORE t i ti and d th the G Greek k Id Ideal l of f classical beauty NOW: multiculturalism, multiculturalism environmental and humanitarian issues, equality of men and women, connection between fitness, beauty, youthfulness Multiculturalism is reshaping some important style centers: Miami is becoming predominantly hispanic, Asian influence is becoming stronger in cities such as Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York
Those with wealth, power and leadership positions From From a designer designers s perspective, perspective each house represents a certain style or aesthethic a look that has its own following. g Thats where a designers power lies. Its not to say that designers dont influence fashion today but I would imagine that music, performers, and actors have more impact on the th way people l might i ht d dress, especially younger people. They are just much more visible to the mainstream population population
DOMINATING ATTITUDE
When th Wh the d desire i f for DIFFERENTIATION is i the th dominant attitude, NEW FASHIONS ARISE, the changes g are REVOLUTIONARY ( (The Youthquake q in the 1960s) When SOCIAL CONFORMITY and IMITATION is th dominant the d i t attitude, ttit d FASHION INNOVATION SLOWS DOWN, the changes are EVOLUTIONARY (the (t e depressed dep essed 1930s, 930 s, t the e co conforming o g 1950s, 950 s, t the e dominance of casual styles beginning in the 1990s)
A KEYWORD: RETROSPECT
Retrospect
Yuppies: acronym for 'Young Upwardly Mobile Professional Person'. A particular type of work hard, play hard, ambitious minded city y career p person of either sex. The hectic lifestyle of a yuppie ea that a after a e long o g hours ou s of o meant work, rare free time was spent in a self indulgent way frittering away the cash earned on anything anything, from expensive make up and perfume, to a bottle of fine champagne. Conspicuous wastage was part of the attitude.
Women Dress for Success: to a new power it corresponds a new suit. it Th They b began t to abandon the incomplete look of mismatched skirt, sweater or blouse for a full jacketed sober suit The Perfect Suit for the Corporate Ladder: the aim of female devotees was to rise the corporate ladder. Simple tailored wool suit in neutral navy or slate blue grey, worn with non sexual blouses, imitated uniform of rank, which by design was authoritative
In Italy, for instance, thanks to the low oil rates and a great import from the US, our GDP raised by 50% vs 1976
People were buying a lot, lot they wanted product who show their new economic power: luxury cars, luxury goods, big houses
The appearance of AFFLUENCE was reinforced by access to designer label goods. By the mid-eighties tills rang not with cash, cash but the increasing use of credit cards. It was all such a relief to the consumer to be able to spend and actively be encouraged to consume after years of recession.
NEW ROMANTIC It was a new wawe and fashion movement that occurred primarily in British and Irish nightclubs Most of the fashion of this new period were taken and p modified right from punk fashion The streaky eyeliner, the spiked hair, the colourful dresses, the syntetic fabrics, were the symbols of new romanticism Vivienne Westwood
Leggings gg g were also very popular Hairstyles were unique: long time preparation, lot of hayrspray, a sculpture, more than an haircut
POWER DRESSING Shoulder pads: in the 1980s women in the workplace were no longer unusual, and wanted to "power power dress" dress to show that they were the equals of men at the office The Dinasty television show, show watched by over 250 million viewers around the world, influenced the fashion styles and women to wear jewelry often to show one's economic status Wool, cotton, and silk returned to popularity for their perceived quality
MADONNA Rising pop star Madonna first emerged on the dance music scene with short skirts over leggings, necklaces, rubber bracelets, , fishnet gloves, hairbows, long layered strings of beads, bleached, untidy hair with dark roots, head bands, and lace ribbons. In her Like a Virgin phase, millions of young you g girls g s around a ou d the e world o d emulated her fashion example that included huge crucifix jewellery, lace g gloves, tulle skirts, and boytoy y y belts.
Gloves, sometimes lace and/or fingerless, were popularized by Madonna Madonna, as well as fishnet stockings and layers of beaded necklaces. Short, tight Lycra or leather mini-skirts and tubular dresses were also worn, as were cropped, bolero-style jackets. Another club fashion for women was lingerie as outerwear. Prior to the mid-1980s it had been taboo to show a slip or a bra strap in public. A visible undergarment had been a sign of social ineptness. This was both an assertion of sexual freedom and a conscious rejection of prevailing androgynous fashions.
MICHAEL JACKSON Breaking album Thriller and then Bad set a new fashion Teenagers fashion. attempted to replicate the look: matching red/black leather pants and jackets, one glove, sunglasses Leather jackets were often studded and left undone to create a messier look Gl Gloves, sometimes i fingerless, would also accompany the jacket
POWER TO THE STYLISTS Brands & designers become status symbols People started to recognise stylists, involved in gossip & news A lot of power & investments on advertising
SUPERMODELS Highly-paid g y p fashion model with a worldwide reputation Ins de la Fressange was the first model to sign an exclusive modeling contract with Chanel Catwalk regulars like Carol Alt, Christie Brinkley and Elle Macpherson began to endorse products with their names, as well as their faces through the marketing of brands faces, The supermodels began to replace film stars as symbols of luxury and wealth
The GRUNGE movement - SEATTLE Clothing commonly worn by grunge musicians in Seattle consisted of second-hand items and the typical outdoor clothing (most notably flannel shirts), as well as a general unkempt appearance The style did not evolve out of a conscious attempt to create an appealing fashion The clothes were cheap, durable, and kind of timeless They ran against the grain of the whole flashy aesthetic that existed in the 80 80's s
After the conspicuous consuming years of the 1980s less became more in the 1990s The silhouette Th ilh tt became b neater t as shoulder pads finally died and jewellery became non existent or chic in its fineness For many the sleek hairstyle copied from Jennifer Aniston or the th f funkier ki choppier h i hairstyle of Meg Ryan was the only hairstyle to sport
There was a dramatic move away from the sexy styles aimed at the glamorous femme fatale of the Eighties and many designers, taken with a vision of romantic ti poverty, t adopted d t d the th style t l of f the th povertyt stricken waif, dressed in a stark, perversely sober palette, with a face devoid of make up
But high-glamour fashion was not dead GUCCI Employing E l i an unknown k designer, TOM FORD, as design g director in 1994, , the fashion house was endowed with a great prestige as Ford triggered prestige, a tidal wave with his chic and shocking collections, perfumes for men and women, revamped boutiques and advertising boutiques, campaigns.
PRADA The brand became a true creative force in the fashion industry Miuccia Prada, the niece of the company company's s founder, began to produce readyto-wear fashion, gaining fame for her subtle, subtle streamlined, yet unquestionably luxurious style, t l that th t catered t d for f the th privileged young woman who prefers understatement to flamboyant fl b extravagance
GIANNI VERSACE Brilliant, B illi t sexy, and d colorful l f l designs d i Large use of supermodels
DOLCE & GABBANA Superfeminine and fantastical style, broke away from the serious and sober-minded sober minded fashions that dominates during much of the Nineties
"It's a dream come true to have my own clothing line. It's j just Paris style: y f fun, bright g and f flashy." y
ICONS
SOCIAL MESSAGES
TALENT SHOWS
TODAY
We want to RESTART A need to DIFFERENTIATE by SHOCKING THE SYSTEM LACK OF INVESTMENTS NO FRILLS Vs A need of CONFORMITY A need of REASSURANCE A strong AESTHETIC approach to fashion consumption
KEYWORDS
DIFFUSION US O OF O INNOVATION O O
Suddenly, y, something g new an innovation is proposed. It may appear in a hit movie, television show, or music video, and influence the buying d i i decisions of f millions illi Or, it may emerge from the fashion runways ARRIVAL OF INNOVATION
In fashion terms, , the innovation may y be: the invention of a new fiber a new finish for denim introduction of an unusual colour range a modification in a silhouette or detail a different way to wear an accessory or a mood expressed in a distinctive style
The
pattern of acceptance or rejection determines the INNOVATIONS LIFE CYCLE The DIFFUSION PROCESS maps the response to the innovation over time The DIFFUSION CURVE, an idealization of the process, illustrated diffusion of innovation as b ll h d
THEDIFFUSION US O CU CURVE
The most Th t critical iti l stage t of f the th diffusion diff i process comes during the initial introduction Without innovators people who wear new fashions f hi and d expose others th to t th the look and without opinion leaders, no diffusion will take place For the forecaster, the diffusion model provides a framework for analyzing the movement of an innovation through a social system. system
The framework Th f k helps h l t to answer questions ti about: b t The innovation: why do some innovations diffuse more rapidly p y than others? What characteristics of an innovation help or hinder its adoption? The consumer adoption process: what is the mental process used by individual consumers in deciding between adopting or failing to adopt an innovation? The diffusion p process: how do innovations diffuse within a social system? What kind of consumer participates in each stage? What is the social process involved in transmitting fashion innovation?
For something to function as an innovation, the consumer must perceive the newness or novelty of the proposed fashion: it must seem different when compared to what already exists in the wardrobe, across the social group, or in the market environment This degree of difference from existing forms is the first identifying characteristic of an innovation
WHATHELPSORHINDERTHEADOPTIONOFAN INNOVATION?
Relative advantage: the perception that the innovation is more satisfactory than items that already exist in the same class of products Compatibility ibili : an estimate of fh harmony between the innovation and the values and norms of potential adopters Complexity: consumers are having difficulties in understanding and using the innovation
Trialability: the chance of testing out the innovation before making a decision Observability: the degree of visibility that the innovation has Perceived risk: economic (the purchase price may reduce the ability to buy other products), products) enjoyment risk (becoming bored or not liking it as much as expected), social risk (the consumers social group will not approve) pp )
SOMEEXAMPLES SO S
Marketingandmerchandisingfocusoneducating theconsumer aboutaninnovationandlowering barrierstoitsadoption Sprayingconsumerswithfragranceastheyenter adepartmentstoreincreasestrialability Adsshowinghowtowearthelatestaccessory reducescomplexity Thefashionshowillustratinghowtocoordinate newitemsdemonstratescompatibililty
FORECASTER O C S TOOLBOX: OO O 1.
Youcanusethecharacteristicsofaninnovationto projectpotentialacceptance Evaluatethewaysinwhichthenewinnovationis betterthanothersimilarproducts.Iftheinnovationis clearlysuperiortotheproductitwillsubstituteor replace,acceptanceismorelikely Then,evaluatetheothercharacteristicsforpotential barrierstoadoption:canthesebarriersbereducedor removedthroughpackaging,presentation,providing information,ordemonstration?
THES STEPS SINDETAILS S AWARENESS:theconsumerfirstrealizesthatan innovationhasbeenproposed INTEREST:the th consumerseeks k information i f ti abouttheinnovation EVALUATION:thetimerequiredtoevaluatethe informationandformanattitudetowardthe innovation TRIAL:thetestingoftheinnovationbefore adoption ADOPTION (or ( rejection) j ti )of fthe th innovation i ti
FORECASTER O C S TOOLBOX: OO O 2.
Themodelpointsoutseveralopportunities: Theprocessbeginswhenaconsumerbecomesdissatisfiedwith thecurrentsituation Ifanumberofconsumersfeelthesamedissatisfaction dissatisfaction,astute forecastersmaypickuponthatfeelingandreportitasavoidin themarket:anopportunity pp ytosolvetheproblem p withanew process product service
FORECASTER O C S TOOLBOX: OO O 3 3.
Visualizingthediffusionprocess
It Its saTWOSTEPFLOW Thefirststepinvolvestransmissionofnewideasthroughthe personalinfluenceofmassmedia andmarketerbased informationtoinnovatorsandopinionleaders Thesecondstepdependsonpersonal personal,facetofaceinfluence withinsocialgroupsasnewideasmovefromfashionleadersto fashionfollowers
Thereisalsoanother interesting and duseful f lmodel d lonthe th diffusion diff i ofinnovationelaboratedby Modisin1922 ItintroducestheideaofCHAOS atthepointwherethecurves overlap Theinnovationisintroduced andgoesthroughthegrowth cycleuntilthatmarketnicheis filled;thenbeginsaperiodof chaos duringwhichanewniche chaos, isidentified. Whenidentified,another growthcyclebegins,andsoon
FORECASTER O C S TOOLBOX: OO O 4.
Theideaofachaoticphasebetweengrowthcyclesraisesthe possibilitythatachaoticphaseisa precursortoamorestable andpredictablegrowthcurve Itisduringachaoticphasethataforecastersjobbecomes importanttoacompany By yevaluating gtheinnovationscharacteristics, ,p possiblebarriers toconsumeradoption,theinfluenceofchangeagentsandany selflimitingfactors,theforecasterhelpsacompanyanticipate thefuturespreadoftheinnovationtootherconsumergroups andothermarkets
Visualization providestheforecasterwithawayto structureobservations determinepotentialmarketsfortheinnovation estimatethetimingwheninnovationwillreachnew consumersegments Analysisofdiffusionintermsofthecurves allowstheforecaster totakeasnapshot p ofthecurrentsituation backcast toexplainthepastevents forecastfuturedevelopments
HOMEWORK
Where