MARKET RESEARCH

Sep 23rd Sep 27th

SPOTLIGHT
Japanese Inflation (%)

Portugal
Following the European trend, PSI 20 fell 0.73% this week, due to political instability in Italy. Statistics Portugal (INE) stated that consumer confidence significantly increased in Sep, especially due to positive expectations related to the unemployment and the economic situation of the country. This indicator rose to -45.3, from -49.0 in the previous month. Moreover, the economic environment index improved from -1.9 to 1.6, during Sep. Lastly, the Portuguese budget deficit, for the purposes of the financial support program, decreased 423.9 million euros in August, totaling 4794.8 million euros during the first eight months of the 2013.

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INDEXES PERFORMANCE
Sep 23
PSI 20 STOXX 50 FTSE 100 DAX CAC 40 NIKKEI 225 HANG SENG
5.997,20 2.922,93 6.553,18 8.635,29 4.172,08 CLOSED 23.351,54

Sep 24
5.990,85 2.922,93 6.571,46 8.664,60 4.195,61 14.732,61 23.179,04

Sep 25
6.039,73 2.927,35 6.551,53 8.665,63 4.195,35 14.620,53 23.209,63

Sep 26
6.039,40 2.922,99 6.565,59 8.664,10 4.186,72 14.799,12 23.125,03

Sep 27
6.000,47 2.919,34 6.509,06 8.661,51 4.186,77 14.760,07 23.207,04

Wkly Chg
-0,73% -0,27% -1,32% -0,16% -0,40% 0,12% -1,26%

Europe
European shares fell this week, as a growing political crisis in Italy weighed on sentiment, combined with continual U.S. debt worries. Euro zone confidence index rose to 96.9 in Sep, the highest level in two years, from 95.3 in Aug, adding to signs the singlecurrency blocs recovery is gaining momentum. The industrial sentiment index went up to -6.7 and the services gauge rose to -3.3, from -5.2. In the retail sector, the confidence level increased to -7 from -10.6, while in the financial services one, it jumped to 11.3 from 5.2. Nationwide released its house price index for the U.K. which showed a 5% (yoy) rise amid growing concerns that stimulus in the country is fueling a bubble in prices. Consumer spending figures for France met expectations with a 0.4% (mom) rise, while Spanish retail sales showed a continued slump with a fall of 4.5% (yoy).

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CURRENCIES
Sep 23
EUR/USD EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/YUAN AUD/JPY
1.350 1.229 0.841 133.26 8.260 93.01

Sep 24
1.347 1.231 0.842 133.02 8.246 92.64

Sep 25
1.352 1.230 0.841 133.06 8.274 92.16

Sep 26
1.349 1.228 0.841 133.42 8.256 92.56

Sep 27
1.352 1.225 0.838 132.84 8.275 91.52

Wkly Chg
-0.01% -0.51% -0.84% -1.14% -0.04% -1.98%

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REFERENCE RATES
Sep 23 Euribor 1M Euribor 3M Euribor 6M Euribor 12M Eonia
0.128% 0.221% 0.337% 0.538% 0.080%

Sep 24
0.128% 0.221% 0.336% 0.534% 0.077%

Sep 25
0.128% 0.221% 0.337% 0.536% 0.077%

Sep 26
0.129% 0.221% 0.337% 0.537% 0.082%

Sep 27
0.127% 0.224% 0.338% 0.538% 0.085%

Asia
Asian equities ended the week mostly higher after the latest U.S jobs data boosted confidence in the economic recovery. Furthermore, Asian currencies fell, led by Indonesia's rupiah (-1.7%) and Malaysias ringgit (-1.9%). A Chinese manufacturing index (SHCOMP) rose to a six-month high of 51.2 in September, signaling that a rebound in the worlds second-largest economy is gaining steam. Japans inflation accelerated to the fastest pace since 2008 in Aug, rising 0.8%, boosted by higher energy prices (which increased 6%). Hong Kong recorded a trade deficit of 39,569 Million HKD in Aug, as exports shrank (-1.3%) after rebounding in the previous month.

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BOND YIELDS
Sep 23 Portugal 6M Portugal 5Y Portugal 10Y Spain 10Y France 10Y Italy 10Y Germany 10Y UK 10Y
1.670% 6.583% 7.156% 4.275% 2.424% 4.394% 1.915% 2.923%

Sep 24
1.717% 6.426% 7.027% 4.283% 2.365% 4.375% 1.842% 2.795%

Sep 25
1.719% 6.423% 6.997% 4.293% 2.355% 4.376% 1.821% 2.778%

Sep 26
1.800% 6.415% 6.970% 4.355% 2.367% 4.486% 1.828% 2.765%

Sep 27
1.610% 6.245% 6.826% 4.367% 2.343% 4.566% 1.780% 2.732%

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SPOTLIGHT
US Consumer Confidence Index

United States
North American stocks finished in the red Friday, with major averages closing lower for the first week in four, as mounting concerns of a potential government shutdown spooked Wall Street. Congress must pass a short-term budget by Monday in order to avoid it. Additionally, investors were surprised again, as the Fed did not announce the tapering of its quantitative easing bond buying program. On the economic front, US GDP expanded at an annual rate of 2.5% in Q2, falling short of analysts expectations. The acceleration in GDP primarily reflected upturns in exports and in nonresidential fixed investment, a smaller decrease in federal government spending, and an upturn in state and local government spending. Confidence among consumers declined to a five-month low in Sep as Americans views on the economy dimmed. The consumer confidence index decreased to 77.5 in Sep from 82.1 in Aug, while expectations called for a drop to 78.

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INDEXES PERFORMANCE
Sep 23
S&P 500 DJIA NQ 100 S&P Lac 40
1.701,84 15.401,38 3.219,34 3.828,94

Sep 24
1.697,42 15.334,59 3.218,66 3.776,58

Sep 25
1.692,77 15.273,26 3.208,55 3.933,53

Sep 26
1.698,67 15.328,30 3.234,04 3.902,74

Sep 27
1.691,75 15.258,24 3.230,30 3.788,25

Wkly Chg
-1,06% -1,25% 0,17% -1,06%

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CURRENCIES
Sep 23
USD/JPY USD/YUAN AUD/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/CAD
98,73 6,121 0,942 1,604 0,911 1,029

Sep 24
98,72 6,120 0,939 1,599 0,913 1,031

Sep 25
98,44 6,120 0,936 1,607 0,910 1,032

Sep 26
98,92 6,121 0,936 1,604 0,910 1,031

Sep 27
98,24 6,120 0,932 1,615 0,906 1,031

Wkly Chg
-1,13% -0,02% -0,75% 0,94% -0,53% -0,01%

South America
Despite Argentinean retail sales rising unexpectedly in Aug to a seasonally adjusted 35.8%, the economic activity in this country fell more than expected to a seasonally adjusted 5.1%. However, this was not the only setback of this economy, as its industrial production fell more than expected to -0.4%, from 2.8% in Jul. In Brazil, unemployment rate fell to 5.3%, surprising analysts, who believed this rate would remain unchanged at 5.6%, as registered in Jul. As for Mexico, economic activity rose more than expected in Aug, to a seasonally adjusted 1.69%, from -0.39% in Jul. Retail sales in this country also rose more than expected to a seasonally adjusted 1.3%, from -1.9% in the previous month.

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COMMODITIES
-1,93% -2,69% -0,71% 0,50%
Crude Oil WTI Natural Gas Crude Oil Brent Corn

0,81% 0,02% 0,45% 3,03%

Gold Silver Copper Sugar

Commodities
Oil prices fell after the announcement that U.S. inventories rose more than expected. Also, concerns regarding U.S. budget had a negative impact on these prices, while boosting the appeal for gold as a safe haven. However, these gains were limited by speculation over Feds widely-expected reduction in bond purchases. Natural gas prices fell after updated weather forecasts called for milder temperatures to continue hovering over much of the U.S.

FEP Finance Club; Forexpros

US TREASURY YIELDS
Sep 23 US 3M US 1Y US 10 Y US 30 Y
0,010% 0,103% 2,701% 3,728%

Sep 24
0,025% 0,100% 2,661% 3,676%

Sep 25
0,020% 0,103% 2,637% 3,678%

Sep 26
0,005% 0,093% 2,648% 3,698%

Sep 27
0,020% 0,090% 2,628% 3,686%

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Ana Santos

David Novo

Mrcia Azevedo

Pritesh Nand

Tiago Fonseca

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