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Descriptive Statistics N logExport logDistance logGDP country i logGDP country j Valid N (listwise) 214 264 264 264 214 Minimum ,00 5,15 11,78 9,34 Maximum 20,72 9,88 16,49 16,49 Mean 13,3392 8,3593 13,9873 12,9669 Std. Deviation 3,50020 1,18089 1,36605 1,49220
Correlatie
Correlations logExport logExport Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N logDistance Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N logGDP country i Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N logGDP country j Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 214 -,350
**
logDistance -,350
**
,000 214 1
264 1
264 1
,000 214
264
Correlations logExport logExport Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N logDistance Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N logGDP country i Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N logGDP country j Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 214 -,350
**
logDistance -,350
**
,000 214 1
264 1
264 1
,000 214
264
4. Which country-pairs are high traders, which country-pairs are low traders? Explain in your own words what possible factors are behind this trade heterogeneity?
Hoge traders: Mexico en USA zijn hoge traders. Dit is te verklaren door het tropische klimaat dat er heerst in deze landen. Een tropisch klimaat is immers ideaal voor de groei van de katoenplant. Veel productie betekent ook veel export, aangezien slechts een deel wordt gehouden voor binnenlands gebruik. Laag:
5. Based on you .ndings, explain (no more than two short paragraphs) what you conclude from your .ndings in (a), (b) ane (c)?Hoe groter de afstand, hoe lager de export, negatieve correlatie (-0,35).
Hoe groter het BBP van de exporteur, hoe hoger de export, positieve correlatie (0,260). Hoe groter het BBP van de importeur, hoe meer hij dus gaat importeren, en hoe meer het andere land dus gaat exporteren, positieve correlatie (0,416). Dit komt dus overeen met de verwachtingen. De cofficinten zijn significant, omdat de p-waarden telkens kleiner zijn dan 0,01. Mexico VS het meeste export. Mexico grote exporteur van katoen. Verschillende die nul waren, wegens geen export naar dat land.
II. Building the Model a. Run the regression, Tij = a + b1yi + b2yj + b3dij + eij , interpret the estimated slope coefficients (including the constant). Do the sign of these coefficients make sense? What about the overall fit of your model? Interpret your cofficients.
Model Summary Adjusted R Model 1 R ,675
a
R Square ,456
Square ,448
2,60058
ANOVA Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 1189,325 1420,230 2609,555 df
F 58,619
Sig. ,000
a
Coefficients
Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) logDistance logGDPpartner logGDPreporter a. Dependent Variable: logExport B -4,027 -1,421 ,685 1,458 Std. Error 2,784 ,152 ,132 ,139 -,489 ,265 ,553 Coefficients Beta t -1,447 -9,323 5,172 10,517 Sig. ,150 ,000 ,000 ,000
b. Equation (1) can be augmented with other variables. For instance: Tij = a + b1yi + b2yj + b3dij + b4ADJij + b5LANGij + eij (2) where ADJij is a dummy variables and equal 1 when country i and country j share the same border and 0 otherwise; LANGij is dummy variable and equal 1 when country i and country j share the same language; and all other variables are defined previously. Estimate the following model in OLS and interpret the new results (with the new variables).
Model Summary Adjusted R Model 1 R ,675
a
R Square ,456
Square ,443
2,61202
ANOVA Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 1190,445 1419,110 2609,555 df
F 34,897
Sig. ,000
a
a. Predictors: (Constant), logGDPreporter, Dummy Language, logGDPpartner, logDistance, Dummy Adjacency b. Dependent Variable: logExport
Coefficients
Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) logDistance logGDPpartner Dummy Adjacency Dummy Language logGDPreporter a. Dependent Variable: logExport B -4,164 -1,388 ,680 ,272 ,007 1,452 Std. Error 2,823 ,173 ,134 ,738 ,614 ,140 -,478 ,262 ,023 ,001 ,551 Coefficients Beta t -1,475 -8,013 5,062 ,369 ,012 10,360 Sig. ,142 ,000 ,000 ,712 ,991 ,000
From chapter 7 we have seen the technicalities related to a F-test. Test unitary elasticities doing a joint test on the income variables that is, H0 : b1 = b2 = 1 versus Ha : b1 6= 1 either/or b2 6= 1 How would you interpret the implications of this test? Hint: in SPSS you will have to perform this test by rearranging equation (2). Alternatively, also test whether b1 = b2? Given the set of variables that you have, which equation would yield the best specification?
b)
H0: 1 + 2 2 = 0 H1: 1 + 2 2 0
Xij = -4,164 + 0,680 Yi + 1,452 Yj 1,388 Dij + 0,272ADJij + 0,007LANGij + eij Xij = -4,164 + 0,680 Yi + 1,452 Yi 2Yi + 1,452 Yj 1,452 Yi + 2 Yi - 1,388 Dij + 0,272ADJij + 0,007LANGij + eij Xij = -4,164 + (0,680 + 1,452 2) Yi + 1,452 (Yj - Yi) + 2 Yi - 1,388 Dij + 0,272ADJij + 0,007LANGij + eij Xij = -4,164 + 0,132 Yi + 1,452 (Yj - Yi) + 2 Yi - 1,388 Dij + 0,272ADJij + 0,007LANGij + eij Xij - 2 Yi = -4,164 + 0,132 Yi + 1,452 (Yj - Yi) - 1,388 Dij + 0,272ADJij + 0,007LANGij + eij
R Square ,575
Square ,565
2,61202
ANOVA Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 1918,580 1419,110 3337,690 df
F 56,242
Sig. ,000
a
a. Predictors: (Constant), logGDPpartner, logDistance, Dummy Language, Dummy Adjacency, YjminYi b. Dependent Variable: Xij2Yi
Coefficients
Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) logDistance Dummy Adjacency Dummy Language YjminYi logGDPpartner B -4,164 -1,388 ,272 ,007 1,452 ,131 Std. Error 2,823 ,173 ,738 ,614 ,140 ,204 -,423 ,021 ,001 ,723 ,045 Coefficients Beta t -1,475 -8,013 ,369 ,012 10,360 ,644 Sig. ,142 ,000 ,712 ,991 ,000 ,520
Niet significant, want log GDP partner is 0,520 > 0,005. We kunnen dus H0 niet verwerpen, dus 1 + 2 2 = 0 .
H0: 1 - 2 = 0 H1: 1 - 2 0 Xij = -4,164 + 0,680 Yi + 1,452 Yj 1,388 Dij + 0,272ADJij + 0,007LANGij + eij Xij = -4,164 + (0,680 - 1,452) Yi + 1,452 (Yi + YJ) 1,388 Dij + 0,272ADJij + 0,007LANGij + eij Xij = -4,164 0,772 Yi + 1,452 (Yi + YJ) 1,388 Dij + 0,272ADJij + 0,007LANGij + eij
R Square ,456
Square ,443
2,61202
ANOVA Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 1190,445 1419,110 2609,555 df
F 34,897
Sig. ,000
a
a. Predictors: (Constant), YiplusYj, Dummy Adjacency, Dummy Language, logDistance, logGDPpartner b. Dependent Variable: logExport
Coefficients
Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) logDistance Dummy Adjacency Dummy Language logGDPpartner YiplusYj a. Dependent Variable: logExport B -4,164 -1,388 ,272 ,007 -,772 1,452 Std. Error 2,823 ,173 ,738 ,614 ,184 ,140 -,478 ,023 ,001 -,298 ,754 Coefficients Beta t -1,475 -8,013 ,369 ,012 -4,194 10,360 Sig. ,142 ,000 ,712 ,991 ,000 ,000
Log GDP partner is significant want 0 < 0,005 We kunnen dus HO verwerpen en stellen dat 1 - 2 0.
Do some analysis using the tabular approach explained in section 7.6. of SW by making, and commenting on, a table with your result similar to table 7.1 ? Conclude and explain your final model?
Regressor LogGDPpartner (Yi) LogGDPreporter (Yj) LogDistance (Dij) Dummy Adjacency (ADJij) Dummy Language (LANGij)
-1,421** -1,416** -1,388** -1,388** (0,152) (0,156) (0,173) (0,173) 0,276 (0,679) 0,095 (0,566) 5,833* (2,465) 3,4335 0,038 264 10,682** (3,192) 3,0849 0,223 264 -4,027 (2,784) 2,60058 0,448 264 -4,079 (2,808) 2,60662 0,445 264 -4,162 (2,809) 2,60576 0,446 264 0,272 (0,738) 0,007 (0,614) -4,164 (2,823) 2,61202 0,443 264
De individuele cofficint is statistisch significant op een *5%-niveau of **1%-niveau, gebruikmakend van een tweezijdige hypothesetest
Interpretatie?
c. Consider model (2) again. A researcher might be interested in analyzing whether the income elasticities (b1 and/or b2) are dierent according to some criteria (size of the country, rich/poor, distant versus non-distant). Create a dummy variable that controls for such heterogeneity. HINT: To create a dummy! This can be done in "transform" menu and choosing "new variable". First, you generate a new variable "Size" =0. Then you choose the "transform" menu and choosing "new variable" and select the new variable that you just created. You let this variable be "1" if "using your own judgment". On the basis of table 8.4. (Key Concept 8.4.) there are three possibilities in which the created dummy "Size" can be used in the estimating model (2): same intercept/dierent slope; dierent intercept/same slope; dierent slope/dierent intercept). So there are a total of three regressions that needs be regressed. Based on your estimation, which model do you prefer, and why?
R Square ,456
Square ,446
2,60573
ANOVA Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 1190,479 1419,076 2609,555 df
F 43,833
Sig. ,000
a
Coefficients
Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) logGDPpartner logGDPreporter logDistance Size a. Dependent Variable: logExport B -2,942 ,602 1,458 -1,433 ,283 Std. Error 3,835 ,241 ,139 ,156 ,685 ,232 ,554 -,493 ,039 Coefficients Beta t -,767 2,494 10,499 -9,208 ,412 Sig. ,444 ,013 ,000 ,000 ,681
R Square ,474
Square ,461
2,56885
ANOVA Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 1236,962 1372,594 2609,555 df
F 37,489
Sig. ,000
a
a. Predictors: (Constant), GDPpartnerXsize, logGDPreporter, logDistance, logGDPpartner, Size b. Dependent Variable: logExport
Coefficients
Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) logGDPpartner logGDPreporter logDistance Size GDPpartnerXsize a. Dependent Variable: logExport B 20,639 -1,150 1,475 -1,653 -25,375 1,998 Std. Error 9,656 ,702 ,137 ,174 9,691 ,753 -,444 ,560 -,569 -3,478 4,109 Coefficients Beta t 2,137 -1,639 10,761 -9,481 -2,618 2,654 Sig. ,034 ,103 ,000 ,000 ,009 ,009
Xij = 20,639 - 1,150 Yi + 1,475 Yj 1,653 Dij 25,375 Si + 0,032 (Yi * Si)
R Square ,457
Square ,446
2,60459
ANOVA Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 1191,718 1417,837 2609,555 df
F 43,917
Sig. ,000
a
Coefficients
Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) logGDPpartner logGDPreporter logDistance GDPpartnerXsize a. Dependent Variable: logExport B -2,095 ,538 1,459 -1,442 ,032 Std. Error 4,284 ,281 ,139 ,157 ,053 ,208 ,554 -,497 ,065 Coefficients Beta t -,489 1,915 10,506 -9,197 ,594 Sig. ,625 ,057 ,000 ,000 ,553
Xij = -2,095 + 0,538 Yi + 1,459 Yj 1,442 Dij + 0,032 (Yi * Si) Op basis van bovenstaande tabellen verkiezen we model omdat dit model de hoogste adjusted R (0.868) en een lagere SER (0.61) hebben. Bovendien zijn in beide modellen 4 van de 5 cofficinten significant op 1%-niveau, terwijl dit niet het geval is bij model 2.