Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
A
Mai'i:: INBOX: Workplan Pa8e l o t l °
^ ^ , - - . , , ? ? S3 O B S 3 - M n ^ | H [INBOX
INBOX Compose Folders Options Search Problem? Help Addressbook Tasks Memos Calendar Logout Open Folder
However, after you've had time to look at the work plan, I suggest we
all meet to discuss the steps staff members should take during the next
few weeks as well as the broader vision for this team.
Best, __ "\n
Alexis Albion
^
Scott Allan
/Warren Bass
Daniel Byman
Bonnie Jenkins
Charles Hill
Contents
http://kinesis.swishmail.com/webmail/imp/message.php?actionID=101&index=52&start=3 04/25/2003
Mail:: INBOX: Workplan Page 2 of 10
Project Overview
•*v
Key Questions
The policy team seeks to understand and assess the development of U.S. counterterrorism policy before the September
11 attacks, the changes in the immediate aftermath, and the nature of the policy today. These tasks will require
reviewing overall priorities, identifying and evaluating the different instruments used to fight terrorism (prosecutions,
military strikes, extraditions/renditions, and so on), and determining how well senior policy makers understood the threat
from al-Qa'ida. Another integral part of the policy team's effort is examining U.S. relationships with key foreign partners
and adversaries with regard to counterterrorism. When appropriate, the team will distinguish between U.S.
counterterrorism policy in general and U.S. efforts to fight al-Qa'ida in particular.
The nature of terrorism during the Cold War shaped U.S. counterterrorism policy when al-Qa'ida began to emerge. These
earlier terrorists, in the words of RAND's Brian Jenkins, wanted "a lot of people watching and a lot of people listening and
not a lot of people dead." Their goals were usually tied to Marxist or ethno-nationalist agendas. The most lethal terrorists
during this era were those backed by states, not those operating independently. In general, terrorism during this period
was viewed as an important but not overriding policy concern.
As al-Qa'ida and affiliated Islamist groups emerged and grew in the 1 990s, the focus slowly shifted. The 1 993 attack on
the World Trade Center marked a turning point. For the first time, Islamist radicals sought mass casualties on U.S. soil. In
contrast to the terrorists of the 1970s and 1980s, who had balked at destroying entire buildings, the new radicals
wanted a lot of people watching anda lot of people dead.
Several government counterterrorism officials recognized the danger al-Qa'ida posed, but U.S. policy changed unevenly at
best. The 1998 bombings of the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania elevated the importance of terrorism in general
and al-Qa'ida in particular, but policy still lagged behind the immensity of the threat. It took the September 11 attacks to
dramatically change U.S. counterterrorism policy. Even today, counterterrorism policy is evolving, with important policy
decisions being made almost daily.
"V
The policy team expects to follow a normal investigative regimen of document requests and review, briefings by key
individuals both inside and outside government, and extensive interviews with those in a position to discuss the
formulation and implementation of U.S. government policy in the counterterrorism arena. In addition, the team will draw
on the work of the Congressional September 11 Joint Inquiry as appropriate.
http://kinesis.swishmail.com/webmail/imp/message.php?actionID=101&index=52&start=3 04/25/2003
Mail:: INBOX: Workplan Page 3 of 10
Key Questions
At the Commission hearings held on March 31 in New York, witnesses described their views of the September 11
^attackers, the intelligence capabilities of the government, and the quality of the USG's counterterrorism policy before
September 11. They also suggested improvements in these areas in order to prevent another tragedy. Based upon their
statements and our research so far, we have compiled a list of key questions and issues that we think need to be
addressed by the Commission.
The list is divided into three parts, corresponding to the overall statutory structure of the Commission's inquiry. Most of
the questions focus on Part I (the pre-September 11 era), as this is essential for understanding Parts II and III, which
cover the period after the attacks.
Background
1. What shaped counterterrorism policy before the 1 993 World Trade Center attack?
• What was the "old paradigm" regarding the threat posed by terrorist groups?
• What instruments (law enforcement, diplomacy, military strikes, financial controls, and so on) were used for
fighting terrorism?
\ *^ j- 1 *\ What wer
• Was there leadership and coordination? ~ ffQ S 'f*'
^^* m £b* f*r
counterterrorism factored into the design of key foreign policy measures, including policy toward Saudi Arabia,
Iraq, the Middle East peace process, Pakistan, and Egypt?
• Did money follow the priority list? Did high-level time and attention follow the list? If not, why not?
""* • With the knowledge available at the time, should counterterrorism have been a higher priority?
5. Were any "balls dropped" during the transition from the Clinton administration to the Bush administration? Were
http://kinesis.swishmail.com/webmail/imp/message.php?actionID=101&index=52&start=3 04/25/2003
Mail:: INBOX: Workplan Page 4 of 10
6. Did policy makers feel well-informed by the intelligence community on the nature of the threat, both at home and
abroad? At what stage was al-Qa'ida considered a threat? At what point was al-Qa'ida considered a grave threat?
7. Did the White House and Congress exercise effective oversight of the intelligence community and other bureaucracies
fighting terrorism?
• Was U.S. policy realistic given the limitations of the key agencies?
• In formulating counterterrorism policy, was sufficient attention given to the organization of the intelligence
community and its ability to combat terrorism?
• In formulating counterterrorism policy, did the USG focus sufficient attention on the FBI's organizational
ability to counter foreign terrorists in the United States?
_§/To what extent did the United States emphasize and integrate counterterrorism into its foreign relations? What were
the tradeoffs?
Did the USG fail to confront terrorist sanctuaries in the Sudan and Afghanistan?
\fi. Di
n 0. Did the United States properly address the issue of state sponsors of terrorism? Was too much attention given to
,_ state-sponsored terrorist groups?
• How supportive were Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries where popular support for Islamists was high and
where the governments reportedly had links to al-Qa'ida?
Counterterrorism Instruments
• Were certain options off the table? Should they have been?
^rr1 A/hat changes were made in the aftermath of September 11, and why?
4ACould these changes have been made before September 11 ? Why or why not?
15. What was the doctrine laid out by the President's September 20 speech and other key pronouncements made during
isJjivotal period? How did these emerge?
'T^
http://kinesis.swishmail.com/webmail/imp/message.php?actionID=101&index=52&start=3 04/25/2003
Mail:: INBOX: Workplan Page 5 of 10
fl6. Could the United States be better positioned to fight al-Qa'ida and other terrorists today?
* 17. Are the problems that hindered effective efforts against al-Qa'ida and terrorism before September 11 fixed?
^
18. What policy steps should be taken today? What bureaucratic and coordination changes are necessary?
"~7
19/ls counterterrorism properly integrated into U.S. foreign policy today? Does our current handling of such issues as
-twinning hearts and minds" abroad, using preemptive or retaliatory force, handling failed states, and formulating Middle
East policy make sense from the perspective of the war against al-Qa'ida?
Proposed Division of Labor (this will change as our team decides who has the best skills for which issue)
• Senior advisor. It may be best to use him to review the research plan and work as it progresses rather than assign a
particular task. Byman may be used in a similar manner.
All team members will work Part III - or at least we will split it up later.
We believe the Commissioners would benefit from briefings about general U.S. counterterrorism policy, U.S. policy toward
al-Qa'ida before September 11, and the status of U.S. policy today.
• Richard Clarke, the former National Coordinator for Counterterrorism, would be the ideal briefer, given his pivotal
role in counterterrorism in both administrations.
v
• General John Gordon, who now holds Clarke's old job, should brief on the current counterterrorism policy.
• Ambassador Michael Sheehan, the former Special Coordinator for Counterterrorism, would also be well-suited for
helping Commissioners understand counterterrorism policy in context before September 11.
• Dr. Bruce Hoffman of the RAND Corporation, perhaps the leading non-government authority on terrorism, could
provide an excellent analysis of how the threat of terrorism has changed over the years.
-N.
• Dr. Paul Pillar, currently the National Intelligence Office for the Near East and South Asia, is perhaps the
government's leading analyst of terrorism and could provide an overview of the strengths and weaknesses of
different counterterrorism instruments.
If necessary, staff member Daniel Byman could brief on the nature of al-Qa'ida and several aspects of the Joint Inquiry
investigation (e.g. covert action, foreign liaison, the use of military force, and the overall counterterrorism strategy as it
related to intelligence). However, in his view, these briefers would be preferred given their stature and experience.
Mr. Clarke, Ambassador Sheehan, Dr. Pillar, and Dan Byman would probably prefer to brief in a classified or, at least,
private venue in order to provide the maximum detail. Dr. Hoffman could brief in public.
It will be difficult to accurately predict what documents the team will want to review, although there are some obvious
ones. Much, if not all, of the material we will be asking for will be classified. Since we will be requesting policy documents,
the focus will be the Executive/NSC/OMB and probably the Departments of State and Justice as well. This list will grow
and become more specific as the investigation proceeds.
• State Department records, from both Foggy Bottom and the field, related to counterterrorism policy;
Many of the most interesting documents for the purposes of our effort will be predecisional. Such documents will provide
insights into which options were chosen, which were rejected, and which were off the table. Because of the sensitivity of
-vthese documents, it may prove difficult to acquire them, which may necessitate high-level interventions.
The Inquiry did some work on policy issues, but most of that focused on the intelligence-policy nexus rather than on the
soundness of the overall policy. The Inquiry discussed intelligence priorities, the dissemination of information, and the
quality of analysis with policy makers in some depth, but it did not venture far beyond this. The focus of its work was on
^the late Clinton-early Bush administrations, with the Inquiry having more success learning about the Clinton period.
Policies toward foreign partners received at best incomplete attention. For example, the Inquiry looked at how the policy
makers' desire for a strong bilateral relationship with Country X affected intelligence gathering on Country X or on
neighboring countries. However, this was only done with a few countries, and even there it was not done systematically.
Moreover, the Inquiry deliberately did not try to judge whether other equities in a bilateral relationship were more or less
important than counterterrorism.
The Inquiry did more extensive work on the use of military force and on covert action. On the former, however, it was
hampered by a lack of interviews and access to many key individuals and documents outside the strict purview of
intelligence.
The Inquiry did not try to judge overall counterterrorism policy in any comprehensive way. Parts of the Inquiry's work
looked at issues such as warning the public, working with state and local officials, and emphasizing law enforcement over
disruption of terrorist groups. Many of these issues, however, involved the work of non-Intelligence Community agencies
(e.g. the Department of Justice, the INS), which received less attention than they deserved. In addition, the Inquiry did
not do basic policy analysis such as trying to evaluate the available instruments, the limits on those instruments, and
political support in Congress.
1. Jonathan Fredman, "Covert Action, Loss of Life, and the Prohibition on Assassination," Studies in Intelligence
(1997), pp. 15-25.
—^
2. Adam Roberts, "Counter-terrorism, Armed Force, and the Laws of War," Survival, Vol. 44, no. 1 (Spring 2002), pp.
7-32.
3. Paul Pillar, Terrorism and U.S. Foreign Policy (Brookings, 2001), pp. 73-1 29.
i/4. Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon, The Age of Sacred Terror (Random House, 2002), pp. 219-392.
1. Martha Crenshaw, "The Logic of Terrorism," in Terrorism and Counterterrorism, eds. Russell D. Howard and Reid L.
Sawyer (McGraw Hill, 2002), pp. 55-66.
2. Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism (Columbia University Press, 1998), pp. 13-44.
•jL. Bruce Hoffman, "Rethinking Terrorism and Counterterrorism Since 9/11," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, no. 25
(2002), pp. 303-316. /
» 2>. Rohan Gunaratna, Inside al-Qaeda: Global Network of Terror (Columbia University Press, 2002), pp. 101 -114. \
4. Alan B. Krueger and Jitka Maleckova, "Does Poverty Cause Terrorism?" New . I I
Republic, June 24, 2002. l\A'
y 5. Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon, The Age of Sacred Terror (Random House, 2002), pp. 3-37. rA/1-
~xAs a first cut, the team would divide people to be interviewed into several categories: those with responsibilities for U.S.
foreign policy who can place counterterrorism in context; those with counterterrorism responsibilities; those with valuable
related responsibilities; foreign officials; and outside experts. The first list in particular includes the most prominent names
in U.S. government. That may seem ambitious, but priorities and focus do begin at the top — and often end there. Once
you go one or two levels down the food chain, the individuals have "accounts" and thus do not have a sense of where
their responsibilities fit into the overall picture. So if we are to be comprehensive, we need to talk to these people. In
several cases (e.g., at OMB), it may be more appropriate to talk to a deputy or someone who focused more on
counterterrorism.
Given the prominence of several of the people on this list, we favor interviewing the working-level individuals, particularly
those involved in counterterrorism, and outside experts first whenever possible. Only when we know as much of the story
as possible will we interview the most senior individuals.
http://kinesis.swishjiiail.com/webmail/imp/message.php?actionID=101&index=52&start=3 04/25/2003
Mall:: INBOX: Workplan Page 9 of 10
Counterterrorism Specialists
• Richard Clarke
A • Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations/Low Intensity Conflict (SOLIC), for both the
Bush and Clinton administrations
• Other former NSC staff working with Clarke (Roger Cressey, Dan Benjamin, Steve Simon, and so
on)
\
• Ambassador Robert Oakley, former S/CT
• Bruce Reidel, former Senior NSC Director for the Middle East
• Ambassadors to Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Germany, Britain, Israel, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, and other
-v countries before September 11
• HRH Prince Bandar bin Sultan, Saudi ambassador to the United States
http://kinesis.swishmail.com/webmail/imp/message.php?actionID=101&index=52&start=3 04/25/2003
Mail :: INBOX: Workplan Page 10 of 10
Outside Experts
11
Draft — Unclassified
Draft - Unclassified
Delete I Reply I Reply to All I Forward I Redirect I Blacklist I Message Source I Resume I Save as I Print Back to INBOX
Move I Copy [This message to •••]
INBOX Compose Folders Options Search Problem? Help Addressbook Tasks Memos Calendar Logout Open Folder '
We'd welcome your comments on the new version and would be happy to meet
when your schedule permits.
Best,
Dan
Alexis Albion
Scott Allan
Warren Bass
Daniel Byman
Bonnie Jenkins
Charles Hill
Contents
Project Overview
Key Questions
The policy team seeks to understand and assess the development of U.S. counter-terrorism policy before the September 11
attacks, the changes in the immediate aftermath, and the nature of the policy today. These tasks will require reviewing
overall priorities, identifying and evaluating the different instruments used to fight terrorism, and determining how well senior
policy makers understood the threat from al-Qa'ida. Another integral part of the policy team's effort is examining U.S.
relationships with key foreign partners and adversaries with regard to counter-terrorism. When appropriate, the team will
distinguish between U.S. counter-terrorism policy in general and U.S. efforts to fight al-Qa'ida in particular.
The nature of terrorism during the Cold War shaped U.S. counter-terrorism policy when al-Qa'ida began to emerge. These
earlier terrorists, in the words of RAND's Brian Jenkins, wanted "a lot of people watching and a lot of people listening and not
a lot of people dead." Their goals were usually tied to Marxist or ethno-nationalist agendas. The most lethal terrorists during
this era were those backed by states, not those operating independently. In general, terrorism during this period was viewed
as an important but not overriding policy concern.
As al-Qa'ida and affiliated Islamist groups emerged and grew in the 1990s, the focus slowly shifted. The 1993 attack on the
World Trade Center marked a turning point. For the first time, Islamist radicals sought mass casualties on U.S. soil. In
contrast to the terrorists of the 1970s and 1980s, who had balked at destroying entire buildings, the new radicals wanted a
lot of people watching and a lot of people dead.
Several government counter-terrorism officials recognized the danger al-Qa'ida posed, but U.S. policy changed unevenly at
best. The 1998 bombings of the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania elevated the importance of terrorism in general and
al-Qa'ida in particular, but policy still lagged behind the immensity of the threat. It took the September 11 attacks to
dramatically change U.S. counter-terrorism policy. Even today, counter-terrorism policy is evolving, with important policy
decisions being made almost daily.
The policy team expects to follow a normal investigative regimen of document requests and review, briefings by key
individuals both inside and outside government, and extensive interviews with those in a position to discuss the formulation
and implementation of U.S. government policy in the counter-terrorism arena. In addition, the team will draw on the work of
the Congressional September 11 Joint Inquiry as appropriate.
Key Questions
http://kinesis.swishmail.com/webmail/imp/message.php?index=139 5/13/03
Mail:: INBOX: Revised Team 3 Workplan Page 3 of 9
The policy team will determine why the United States did not successfully stop al-Qa'ida before September 11 and assess
the effectiveness of counterterrorism policy today. In the process, the team will tell the story of how counterterrorism policy
evolved as the al-Qa'ida threat grew during both the Clinton and Bush administrations, examining such key events as the
1993 World Trade Center attack, the 1998 Embassy bombings, and the 2000 attack on USS Cole.
• Strategy. What was U.S. counterterrorism policy and how did it evolve, particularly after 1998? Were there gaps in
the strategy and, if so, how did policy makers address them? What factors hindered policy makers?
• Instruments. What counterterrorism instruments did policy makers consider, use, or neglect and why? How effective
were instruments such as diplomacy, criminal prosecutions, renditions, fundraising restraints, disruptions, military
operations, covert action, and public diplomacy? What were the limits of various instruments? How supportive were
key countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Pakistan?
• Safe Havens. Did the United States confront terrorist sanctuaries, such as Sudan and Afghanistan, properly? Were
"permissive environments" in Europe and elsewhere addressed?
• Immediate Aftermath. How did counterterrorism policy change in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks? Why
were several hard-hitting steps only taken after the attacks occurred?
• Current and Future Policy. Does the United States have the right policies to fight al-Qa'ida and other terrorist
groups today? What additional changes should be made, and who should make them?
Note: The policy team will work closely with other teams in its research. For example, it will support the terrorist financing
team when assessing efforts to disrupt radicals' fundraising and assist the intelligence team in determining whether policy
makers received sufficient information on al-Qa'ida's unusual nature to properly structure U.S. counterterrorism efforts.
* Senior advisor. It may be best to use him to review the research plan and work as it progresses rather than assign a
particular task. Byman may be used in a similar manner after a new team leader is chosen.
All team members will work on assessing current and future policy. All team members will work on at least one issue in
addition to the one for which they are responsible.
We believe the Commissioners would benefit from briefings about general U.S. counterterrorism policy, U.S. policy toward
al-Qa'ida before September 11, and the status of U.S. policy today.
• Ambassador Michael Sheehan, the former Special Coordinator for Counterterrorism, would also be well-suited for
helping Commissioners understand counterterrorism policy in context before September 11.
• General John Gordon, the National Director for Counterterrorism and the Deputy National Security Advisor should
brief on the current counterterrorism policy.
• Dr. Paul Pillar, currently the National Intelligence Office for the Near East and South Asia, is perhaps the
government's leading analyst of terrorism and could provide an overview of the strengths and weaknesses of
different counterterrorism instruments.
• Dr. Daniel Byman, who headed the "lookback" team on the 9-11 Inquiry, could offer a staff briefing on several
aspects of the Congressional Joint Inquiry investigation, particularly covert action, foreign liaison, the use of military
force, and the overall counterterrorism strategy as it related to intelligence. These briefings would follow the Joint
Inquiry's more narrow focus and would not reflect many of the broader issues the Commission will examine.
All four suggested briefers would probably prefer to brief in a classified or, at least, private venue in order to provide the
maximum detail.
Much, if not all, of the material we will be asking for will be classified. Since we will be requesting policy documents, the
focus will be the Executive/NSC/OMB and probably the Departments of State and Justice as well. This list will grow and
become more specific as the investigation proceeds.
• Records of discussions of counterterrorism policy, particularly among "Small Group" and "Counterterrorism Security
Group" members;
• State Department records, from both Foggy Bottom and the field, related to counterterrorism policy;
• Tasking directed to the intelligence community related to counterterrorism, including tasking related to renditions and
other covert action as well as collection and analysis;
• Tasking directed to the military related to counterterrorism, both with regard to instructions to prepare military options
and instructions to use military force;
• Military and intelligence agency briefings and memoranda related to military strikes and covert action against al-
Qa'ida;
Many of the most interesting documents for the purposes of our effort will be predecisional. Such documents will provide
insights into which options were chosen, which were rejected, and which were off the table. Because of the sensitivity of
these documents, it may prove difficult to acquire them, which may in turn necessitate high-level interventions.
To gain a deeper understanding of counter-terrorism, we also intend to focus on the activities of several U.S. missions, such
as Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Germany, to determine how they handled counterterrorism in practice. In addition to
examining directives from Washington, we also plan to look at cables and instructions to and from key counterterrorism
officials at these posts. We will also interview key country team members as appropriate.
The Congressional 9-11 Inquiry's work on policy issues focused on the intelligence-policy nexus rather than on the
soundness of the overall policy. The Inquiry discussed intelligence priorities, the dissemination of information, and the quality
of analysis with policy makers in some depth. The focus of its work was on the late Clinton-early Bush administrations, with
the Inquiry having more success learning about the Clinton period.
Policies toward foreign partners received at best incomplete attention. For example, the Inquiry looked at how the policy
makers' desire for a strong bilateral relationship with Country X affected intelligence gathering on Country X or on
neighboring countries. However, this was only done with a few countries, and even there it was not done systematically.
Moreover, the Inquiry deliberately did not try to judge whether other equities in a bilateral relationship were more or less
important than counterterrorism.
The Inquiry did more extensive work on the use of military force and on covert action. On the former, however, it was
hampered by a lack of interviews and access to many key individuals and documents outside the strict purview of
intelligence.
The Inquiry did not try to judge overall counterterrorism policy in any comprehensive way. Parts of the Inquiry's work looked
at issues such as warning the public, working with state and local officials, and emphasizing law enforcement over disruption
of terrorist groups. Many of these issues, however, involved the work of non-Intelligence Community agencies (e.g. the
Department of Justice, the INS), which received less attention than they deserved. In addition, the Inquiry did not do basic
policy analysis such as trying to evaluate the available instruments, the limits on those instruments, and political support in
Congress.
1. Paul Pillar, Terrorism and U.S. Foreign Policy (Brookings, 2001), pp. 73-129. These pages in Dr. Pillar's book provide
an excellent overview of the instruments used to fight terrorism.
2. Michael Elliott, "Could 9/11 Have Been Prevented?" Time, August 4, 2002. This article provides a fairly detailed
history of various efforts to fight al-Qa'ida in the Clinton and Bush administrations. Many of the quotes suggest that
former Clinton administration officials were sources for the article.
3. Daniel Byman, "A Scorecard for the War on Terrorism," The National Interest, Summer 2003. This piece examines
how well the war on terrorism has gone since September 11.
Note: we also highly recommend as background Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon, The Age of Sacred Terror (Random
House, 2002), pp. 219-349. These pages review (and defend) the Clinton administration's counterterrorism policy and
examine (and attack) the Bush administration's policy before September 11. This is the most detailed look at U.S.
counterterrorism policy to emerge so far, though it remains incomplete.
As a first cut, the team would divide people to be interviewed into several categories: those with responsibilities for U.S.
foreign policy who can place counterterrorism in context; those with counterterrorism responsibilities; those with valuable
related responsibilities; personnel at key posts; and outside experts. NSC staff will prove particularly important, as they often
directed and coordinated the overall "war on terrorism" in both the Clinton and Bush administrations.
The first list in particular includes the most prominent names in U.S. government. That may seem ambitious, but priorities
and focus do begin at the top - and often end there. In several cases (e.g., at OMB), it may be more appropriate to talk to a
deputy or someone who focused more on counterterrorism.
Given the prominence of several of the people on this list, we favor interviewing the working-level individuals, particularly
those involved in counterterrorism, and outside experts first whenever possible. Only when we know as much of the story as
possible will we interview the most senior individuals.
17. Sean O'Keefe, former Deputy Director, Office of Management and Budget
18. Josh Gotbaum, former Executive Director, Office of Management and Budget
21. Steven Cambone, Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy
COPIES: 1 PAGES:
The item identified below has been withdrawn from this file:
FROM:
TO:
WITHDRAWAL NOTICE
Mail:: INBOX: Revised Team 3 Workplan Page 9 of 9
Outside Experts
Draft -- Unclassified
Draft -- Unclassified
Delete I Reply I Reply to All I Forward I Redirect I Blacklist I Message Source I Resume I Save as I Print Back to INBOX
Move I Copy [This message to
Alexis Albion
Scott Allan
Warren Bass
Daniel Byman
Bonnie Jenkins
Charles Hill
Contents
Project Overview
Key Questions
The policy team seeks to understand and assess the development of U.S. Counterterrorism policy before
September 11, 2001, the policy changes in the immediate aftermath of the attacks, and the nature of the
policy today. These tasks will require reviewing overall policy priorities, identifying and evaluating the
different instruments used to fight terrorism, and determining how well senior policy makers understood
the threat from al-Qa'ida. Another integral part of the policy team's effort is examining U.S.
relationships with key foreign partners and adversaries with regard to Counterterrorism. When
http://kinesis.swishmail.com/webmaiyimp/view.php?thisrnailbox=INBOX&index=170&id=2... 5/16/03
Initial Work Plan of the Counterterrorism Policy Team Page 2 of 9
appropriate, the team will distinguish between U.S. counterterrorism policy in general and U.S. efforts
to fight al-Qa'ida in particular.
The nature of terrorism during the Cold War shaped U.S. counterterrorism policy when al-Qa'ida began
to emerge. These earlier terrorists, in the words of RAND's Brian Jenkins, wanted "a lot of people
watching and a lot of people listening and not a lot of people dead." Their goals were usually tied to
Marxist or ethno-nationalist agendas. The most lethal terrorists during this era were those backed by
states, not those operating independently. In general, terrorism during this earlier period was viewed as
an important but not overriding policy concern.
As al-Qa'ida and affiliated Islamist groups emerged and grew in the 1990s, the focus slowly shifted. The
1993 attack on the World Trade Center marked a turning point. For the first time, Islamist radicals
sought mass casualties on U.S. soil. In contrast to the terrorists of the 1970s and 1980s, who had balked
at destroying entire buildings, the new radicals wanted a lot of people watching and a lot of people dead.
Several government counterterrorism officials recognized the danger that al-Qa'ida posed, but U.S.
policy changed unevenly at best. The 1998 bombings of the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania
elevated the importance of terrorism in general and al-Qa'ida in particular, but policy still lagged behind
the immensity of the threat. It took the September 11 attacks to dramatically change U.S.
counterterrorism policy. Even today, counterterrorism policy is evolving, with important policy
decisions being made almost daily.
The policy team expects to follow a normal investigative regimen of document requests and review,
briefings by key individuals both inside and outside government, and extensive interviews with those in
a position to discuss the formulation and implementation of U.S. government policy in the
counterterrorism arena. In addition, the team will draw on the work of the Congressional September 11
Joint Inquiry as appropriate.
Key Questions
The policy team will seek to determine why the United States did not successfully stop al-Qa'ida before
September 11 and assess the effectiveness of U.S. counterterrorism policy today. In the process, the
team will tell the story of how counterterrorism policy evolved as the al-Qa'ida threat grew during both
the Clinton and Bush administrations, examining such key events as the 1993 World Trade Center
attack, the 1998 Embassy bombings, and the 2000 attack on the U.S.S. Cole.
• Strategy. What was U.S. counterterrorism policy, and how did it evolve, particularly after 1998?
Were there gaps in the strategy, and if so, how did policy makers address them? What factors
hindered policy makers?
• Instruments. What counterterrorism instruments did policy makers consider, use, or neglect—
and why? How effective were instruments such as diplomacy, criminal prosecutions, renditions,
fundraising restraints, disruptions, military operations, covert action, and public diplomacy? What
were the limits of various instruments? How supportive were key countries such as Saudi Arabia
and Pakistan?
• Safe Havens. Did the United States properly confront terrorist sanctuaries, such as Sudan and
Afghanistan? Were "permissive environments" in Europe and elsewhere addressed?
• Immediate Aftermath. How did counterterrorism policy change in the aftermath of the
September 11 attacks? Why were several hard-hitting steps only taken after the attacks occurred?
http://kinesis.swishmail.com/webmail/imp/view.php?thismailbox=INBOX&index=170&id=2... 5/16/03
Initial Work Plan of the Counterterrorism Policy Team Page 3 of 9
• Current and Future Policy. Does the United States have the right policies to fight al-Qa'ida and
other terrorist groups today? What additional changes should be made, and who should make
them?
Note: The policy team will work closely with other teams in its research. For example, it will support
the terrorist-financing team when assessing efforts to disrupt radicals' fundraising and assist the
intelligence team in determining whether policy makers received sufficient information on al-Qa'ida's
unusual nature to properly structure U.S. counterterrorism efforts.
*Senior advisor. It may be best to use him to review the research plan and work as it progresses
rather than assign a particular task. Byman may be used in a similar manner after a new team leader
is chosen.
**The agency designee is largely administrative. He or she will act as the primary interlocutor for
document and interview requests and liaise with other teams working on that agency. All team
members may interview at or work with documents from key agencies.
All team members will work on the immediate aftermath of the September 11 attacks, the assessment of
current policy, and the recommendations for the future.
All team members will work on at least one issue in addition to the one for which they are responsible.
We believe the Commissioners would benefit from briefings about general U.S. counterterrorism policy,
U.S. policy toward al-Qa'ida before September 11, and the status of U.S. policy today.
• Ambassador Michael Sheehan, the former Special Coordinator for Counterterrorism, would help
Commissioners understand counterterrorism policy in context before September 11.
• Dr. Paul Pillar, currently the National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia, is
perhaps the government's leading analyst of terrorism and could provide an overview of the
strengths and weaknesses of different counterterrorism instruments.
• Dr. Daniel Byman, who headed the "lookback" team on the 9-11 Inquiry, could offer a staff
http://kinesis.swishmail.com/webmail/imp/view.php?thismailbox=INBOX&index=170&id=2... 5/16/03
Initial Work Plan of the Counterterrorism Policy Team Page 4 of 9
briefing on several aspects of the Congressional Joint Inquiry investigation, particularly covert
action, foreign liaison, the use of military force, and overall U.S. counterterrorism strategy as it
related to intelligence. These briefings would follow the Joint Inquiry's more narrow focus and
would not reflect many of the broader issues the Commission will examine.
All three suggested briefers would probably prefer to brief in a classified or, at least, private venue in
order to provide the maximum detail.
Much, if not all, of the material we will be asking for will be classified. Since we will be requesting
policy documents, the focus will be the Executive/NSC/OMB, and probably the Departments of State
and Justice as well. This list will grow and become more specific as the investigation proceeds. For
almost all categories of documents, we will focus our requests on the period after January 1998.
• Records of the Transnational Threats Directorate at the National Security Council. This would
include briefing memos, meeting notes, and perhaps selected e-mails related to key events;
• State Department records, from both Foggy Bottom and the field, related to counterterrorism
policy. The initial focus will be on documents from the Special Coordinator for Counterterrorism's
Office, the deliberations of senior State Department officials, and selected documents related to
policy toward key states in the war on terrorism;
• The Defense Department, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and key commands' (CENTCOM, SOCOM)
documents related to counterterrorism, particularly with regard to instructions to prepare military
options and instructions to use force;
• Military and intelligence agency briefings and memoranda related to military strikes and covert
action against al-Qa'ida; and
Many of the most interesting documents for the purposes of our effort will be predecisional. Such
documents will provide insights into which options were chosen, which were rejected, and which were
off the table. Because of the sensitivity of these documents, it may prove difficult to acquire them, which
may in turn necessitate high-level interventions.
To gain a deeper understanding of counterterrorism, we also intend to focus on the activities of several
U.S. missions, such as Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Germany, to determine how they handled
counterterrorism in practice. In addition to examining directives from Washington, we also plan to look
at cables and instructions to and from key counterterrorism officials at these posts. We will also
http://kinesis.swishmail.com/webmaiyimp/view.php?thismailbox=INBOX&index=170&id=2... 5/16/03
Initial Work Plan of the Counterterrorism Policy Team Page 5 of 9
The Congressional 9-11 Inquiry's work on policy issues focused on the intelligence-policy nexus, rather
than on the soundness of the overall counterterrorism policy. The Inquiry discussed intelligence
priorities, the dissemination of information, and the quality of analysis with policy makers in some
depth. The focus of its work was on the late Clinton-early Bush administrations, with the Inquiry having
more success learning about the Clinton period.
Policies toward foreign partners received, at best, incomplete attention. For example, the Inquiry looked
at how the policy makers' desire for a strong bilateral relationship with Country X affected intelligence
gathering on Country X or on neighboring countries. However, this was only done with a few countries,
and even there it was not done systematically. Moreover, the Inquiry deliberately did not try to judge
whether other equities in a bilateral relationship were more or less important than counterterrorism.
The Inquiry did more extensive work on the use of military force and covert action. On the former,
however, it was hampered by a lack of interviews and access to many key individuals and documents
outside the strict purview of intelligence.
The Inquiry did not try to judge overall counterterrorism policy in any comprehensive way. Parts of the
Inquiry's work looked at issues such as warning the public, working with state and local officials, and
emphasizing law enforcement over the disruption of terrorist groups. Many of these issues, however,
involved the work of non-Intelligence Community agencies (e.g. the Department of Justice, the INS),
which received less attention than they deserved. In addition, the Inquiry did not do basic policy analysis
such as trying to evaluate the available instruments, the limits on those instruments, and political support
in Congress.
1. Paul Pillar, Terrorism and U.S. Foreign Policy (Brookings, 2001), pp. 73-129. These pages
provide an excellent overview of the strengths and weaknesses of the instruments that the United
States has used to fight terrorism.
2. Michael Elliott, "Could 9/11 Have Been Prevented?" Time, August 4, 2002. This article provides
a fairly detailed history of efforts to fight al-Qa'ida in the Clinton and Bush administrations. Many
of the quotes suggest that former Clinton administration officials were sources for the article.
3. Daniel Byman, "Scoring the War on Terrorism," The National Interest, Summer 2003. This piece
examines how well the war on terrorism has gone since September 11.
4. Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon, The Age of Sacred Terror (Random House, 2002), pp. 219-
349. These pages review (and defend) the Clinton administration's counterterrorism policy and
examine (and attack) the Bush administration's policy before September 11. This is the most
detailed look at U.S. counterterrorism policy to emerge so far, though it remains incomplete.
As a first cut, the team would divide people to be interviewed into several categories: those with
responsibilities for U.S. foreign policy who can place counterterrorism in context; those with
counterterrorism responsibilities; those with valuable related responsibilities; personnel at key posts; and
outside experts. NSC staff will prove particularly important, as they often directed and coordinated
overall U.S. efforts against terrorism in both the Clinton and Bush administrations.
http://kinesis.swishmail.com/webmail/imp/view.php?thismailbox=INBOX&index=170&id=2... 5/16/03
Initial Work Plan of the Counterterrorism Policy Team Page 6 of 9
The first list, in particular, includes the most prominent names in the U.S. government. That may seem
ambitious, but priorities and focus do begin at the top—and often end there. In several cases (e.g., at
OMB), it may be more appropriate to talk to a deputy or someone who focused more on
counterterrorism.
Given the prominence of several of the people on this list, we favor interviewing the working-level
individuals (particularly those involved in counterterrorism) and outside experts first whenever
possible. Only when we know as much of the story as possible will we interview the most senior
individuals.
18. Sean O'Keefe, former Deputy Director, Office of Management and Budget
19. Josh Gotbaum, former Executive Director, Office of Management and Budget
http://kinesis.swishmail.com/webmail/imp/view.php?thismailbox=INBOX&index=170&id=2... 5/16/03
Initial Work Plan of the Counter-terrorism Policy Team Page 7 of 9
22. Steven Cambone, Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy
25. Lt. General Donald Kerrick, former Deputy National Security Advisor
Counterterrorism Specialists and Other Senior Working Level Officials with Duties Related to
Counterterrorism
2. Ambassador Cofer Black, Special Coordinator for Counterterrorism (S/CT) and former CTC
Director
5. Evelyn Lieberman, former Under Secretary for Public Diplomacy & Public Affairs
10. Robert C. Doheny, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations/Low Intensity Conflict
(mission: overall supervision of SOLIC)
11. Brian Sheridan, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for SOLIC (around 1999)
15. Mary Jo White, former U.S. Attorney for Southern District of New York
16. Ambassador Karl Inderfurth, former Asst. Secretary of State, South Asia
17. Ambassador Mark Parris, former Asst. Secretary of State, Near East
http://kinesis.swishmail.com/webmail/imp/view.php?thismailbox=INBOX&index=170&id=2... 5/16/03
Initial Work Plan of the Counterterrorism Policy Team Page 8 of 9
20. Bruce Riedel, former Senior NSC Director for the Middle East
21. Stephen Jennings, former Asst Section Chief, Intl Terrorism Unit at FBI
23. Michael Rolince, former Section Chief at International Terrorism Unit at FBI
25. James Reynolds, former Chief of Terrorism and Violent Crimes section at DoJ
Key Country Team Members from Germany, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan
(1998-2001)
1. Ambassador
http://kinesis.swishmail.com/webmaiyimp/view.php?thismailbox=INBOX&index=170&id=2... 5/16/03
Initial Work Plan of the Counterterrorism Policy Team Page 9 of 9
Draft - Unclassified
Draft — Unclassified
http://kinesis.swishmail.com/webmail/imp/view.php?thismailbox=INBOX&index=170&id=2... 5/16/03