Nano Material Volumes Applications Holman Lux Research

Lux Research Inc. • 140 E.
45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 1
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Nanomaterial Forecast: Volumes
and Applications
Presented at the ICON Nanomaterial Environmental Health and

Safety Research Needs Assessment
January 9, 2007
Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 2
Agenda
• Overall economic impact of nanotech

• Nanomaterial markets and applications
• Publications, other considerations
Agenda

The nanotechnology value chain
Nano-enabled
Nanomaterials Nanointermediates products
Nanoscale Intermediate
Finished goods
structures in products with
incorporating
unprocessed nanoscale
nanotechnology
form features
Nanoparticles, Coatings, fabrics, memory Cars, clothing, airplanes,
nanotubes, quantum and logic chips, contrast computers, consumer
dots, fullerenes, media, optical components, electronics devices,
dendrimers, nanoporous orthopedic materials, pharmaceuticals, processed
materials… superconducting wire… food, plastic containers,
appliances…
Nanotools
Capital equipment and software used to

visualize, manipulate, and model matter
at the nanoscale
Atomic force microscopes, nanoimprint
lithography equipment, nanomanipulators…
Nanotechnology will impact $2.9 trillion worth of
products across the value chain by 2014
Sales of products incorporating nanotechnology, 2005 to 2014
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
Sales
$1,500
($ billions)
$1,000
$500
$0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nanomaterials Nanointermediates Nano-enabled products
Forecast based on Lux Research’s value chain ontology, secondary research, and more than 100
interviews with executives, thought leaders, and academics. Projections were triangulated from bottom-up,
top-down, analogical, and third-party market estimates, as well as advanced evolutionary models.
Source: Lux Research Report “Sizing Nanotechnology’s Value Chain”
Example value chains for specific nano-enabled
products
Nano-enabled
Nanomaterials Nanointermediates products
Clay Clay/poly-
nanoparticles propylene 2004 Chevrolet
(Southern Clay nanocomposite Impala
Products) (Basell) (GM)
MRAM Mobile phone

[None] memory chip (Nokia,
(Altis, Freescale) Samsung)
Nanotechnology funding reached $12.4 billion worldwide
in 2006
By source By region
$0.65 $0.32
$4.0 $4.4
$6.4
$5.3
$3.6
US$ billions US$ billions
North America Europe
Government Corporate Venture capital
Asia Rest of world
Lux Research Reference Study “The Nanotech Report, 4th Edition”; Reports “How Industry Leaders Organize for Nanotech
Innovation”; “Profiting from International Nanotechnology”; “Exits for Venture Capitalists in Nanotechnology Remain Elusive”
Agenda

Nanomaterials: Ceramic nanoparticles
• Market in 2005: $179 million

• Market in 2010: $1.5 billion
• Material costs: Dollars to thousands of
dollars per kilogram
• Primary applications: Nanoclays for
structural composites; ZnO and TiO2 UV
absorbers in cosmetics, plastics, and
coatings; CeO, silica, et al. for CMP
slurries; CeO for fuel catalysts; TiO2 for
photocatalytic coatings, glasses, and
filters; silica and alumina nanoparticles for Nanoclays and nanoclay
composites, used in
coatings; various Li compounds for automotive applications
like the Hummer H2’s
batteries; TiO2 in Grätzel solar cells running boards
Nanomaterials: Metal nanoparticles

• Material costs: Tens to many thousands of
• Primary applications: Vast majority either
in antimicrobial nanosilver or in catalysis
using particles of Pt, Pd, Ni, Co, Rh, etc.;
also conductive layers in displays; printed
electronics, esp. with Cu, Ag; sensors
(SERS or plasmonics based); Al
Silver nanoparticles used
nanoparticles for “energetics” for antimicrobial effect in
wound dressings and
consumer products
Nanomaterials: Nanoporous materials

• Primary applications: Vast majority in
aerogel materials (primarily silica) for
insulation, as well as in optics, electronics,
catalysis; polymers for separation media;
polymers, silicon, or carbon for drug
delivery systems; carbon, polymer,
hydroxyapatite, etc. medical device
Silica aerogels insulators
coatings used in applications from
oil pipelines to apparel
Nanomaterials: Carbon nanotubes

• Primary applications: Substantial majority
by volume today and for foreseeable future
in MWNTs for conductive and structural
composites; emerging uses of SWNT
composites and in memory, sensors,
thermal management, conductive display
Single-walled nanotubes
layers, EMI/ESD coatings are becoming realistic for
memory chips in devices
like cell phones
Nanomaterials: Nanostructured metals

• Material costs: Hundreds to many
thousands of dollars per kilogram
• Primary applications: Hard coatings or
structural components in aerospace,
automotive, pipelines, sporting goods;
chromium-free anti-corrosive coatings
Nanostructured metals are

tough but often brittle
Nanomaterials: Dendrimers

• Material costs: Hundreds to many
thousands of dollars per kilogram
• Primary applications: Drug delivery,
therapeutics, and diagnostics; applications
mooted in personal care, coatings,
composites, inks, and adhesives
• Note: Dendritic NanoTechnologies expects
orders of magnitude cost decreases with
Dendrimers can
new synthesis techniques encapsulate actives or
agents to enhance MRI
contrast
Nanomaterials: Quantum dots
• Market in 2005: $4.3 million

• Material costs: Thousands of dollars per
kilogram
• Primary applications: Biolabels and in vitro
diagnostics; optoelectronic applications
like LEDs, displays, solar cells; inks and
paints for identification or brand protection
In vivo diagnostics with

quantum dots is possible
but still speculative due
to safety concerns
Nanomaterials: Fullerenes
• Market in 2005: $2.5 million

kilogram
• Primary applications: Composites, mainly
for sporting goods; antioxidant additives
for cosmetics; organic solar cell
components; fuel cells; uses as lubricants
and as novel therapeutics are mooted as
well
Fullerenes’ electronic
properties also make
them strong anti-
oxidants
Nanomaterials: Nanowires
• Market in 2005: <$1 million

kilogram
• Primary applications: Conductive layers for
displays; sensors; solar cells; logic devices
Nanowires can replace

ITO layers in displays
Nanomaterials: Other important categories
• Polymer nanoparticles: Engineered nanoscale

particles of latexes, urethanes, acrylics, etc. used or
studied for coating and composite formulations by
BASF, Arkema, DuPont, Rohm & Haas, et al.
• Drug nanoparticles and nanoscale reformulations:
Coated nanoparticles of actives or encapsulation in
liposomes, micelles, emulsion, etc., used in over $1
billion worth of drugs currently, and similar technologies
are also widely applied to food and personal care
• Nanoscale films: Sub 100-nm layers of polymers,
metals, ceramics which are self-assembled or deposited
on surfaces from SC wafers to glass to fabrics
Agenda

Journal articles on EHS implications by nanomaterial
60
50 Total articles on EHS

13% 11%
40
Peer-
review ed
24%
journal 30
28%
articles
on EHS
20
15%
9%
10
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Carbon nanotubes Ceramic nanoparticles Fullerenes
Metal nanoparticles Molecular aggregates Other
Sources: ICON database (icon.rice.edu), review articles, literature searches
EHS research doesn’t follow commercial activity
Published journal articles U.S. government-funded research 2005 sales
$700 $45
27
$89
83 $901
77
$6,300
$179
Source: Lux Research/ICON US$ thousands US$ millions
Source: Wilson Center Source: Lux Research
Carbon nanomaterials Ceramic nanoparticles Metal nanoparticles
IP density also indicates potential future applications
s ts s les
es on es er do re
s cle ic
m rtic els
en rb tub rim m i al arti a og
r a nd tu ow et p er pa r
lle C no an n M no C no Ae
Fu na De Q u Na na na
General
High white Challenge

Structural No patents
space unlikely
materials
Energy
Optics
Electronics
Healthcare/
cosmetics
Other
Low white Challenge
space likely
Platform
overall
Total
patents
235 446 262 387 76 403 635 294
Source: June 2006 Lux Research Report New“Nanotech
York, NY 10017IP Battles
• +1 Worth Fighting.”
888 589 7373 Lux on
Assessment Research found
January 9, 2007 4,986
by Michael nanotechnology
Holman, Senior Analyst patents
covering 102,651 claims, and did claim-by-claim analysis of eight nanomaterials covering 2,646 patents and 49,807 claims.
Firms need to handle three aspects of nanotech EHS…
Real risks Perceptual Risks Regulations

Nanomaterials might have Nanotechnology might come to Regulations might – rightly or
negative effects on people or the be seen as unsafe – irrespective wrongly – slow or block
environment of actual harm commercialization
Rat exposed to cobalt nanoparticles on the Protest of the use of Nano-Tex fabric Text of the Environmental Protection
left side, bulk cobalt on the right side treatment outside an Eddie Bauer store Agency’s Toxic Substances Control Act
Best case: Nanomaterials prove to be Best case: Consumers appreciate the Best case: Existing regulatory
more dangerous than ordinary substances benefits nanomaterials can offer and frameworks case be painlessly adapted to
in only a handful of cases embrace the technology manage nanomaterials
Worst case: Studies show that many Worst case: Nanotech comes to be seen Worst case: Risks drive regulators to
nanomaterials have elevated hazard and as synonymous with danger and impose stringent testing requirements on
are more difficult to control consumers are reluctant to accept it all nanomaterials
… but research priorities may differ for each

Thank you
Michael Holman
Senior Analyst
+1 646 723 0161
michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
www.luxresearchinc.com
Studies have shifted toward hazard
50
45 Total articles on EHS

40
31%
35
Peer-
reviewed 30
journal
25
articles on
69%
nanotech 20
EHS
15
10
2006
1988
1990
1995
1997
2005
1987
1989
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1998
2004
1999
2002
1986
2000
2001
2003
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
Hazard Exposure
Inhalation has been the main exposure route studied
60
Total articles on EHS

50 4%
25% 35%
Peer- 40
reviewed
journal
30
articles on 5%
nanotech 3%
6%
EHS 20
22%
10
0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1996
1997
1998
1999
2006
1987
1992
1993
1994
1995
2005
1982
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
1980
1981
1983
1984
1985
1986
Inhalation Skin Injection Injestion Ecological In vitro Multiple
Nanomaterial categories
$1,600
2005 2010
$1,200
$800
US$
millions
$400
$0
ts
es
s
ls
al
es
ire
be
ne
er
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cl
er
im
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ow
tu
re
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dr
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m
en
nt
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no
ur
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ua
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tru
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bo
or
al
ic
os
ar
op
am
et
an
M
an
er
N
N
C
Nanointermediate categories
$10,000
2005 2010
$8,000
$6,000
US$
millions $4,000
$2,000
$0
y
y
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Lux Research Inc. • 140 E.

Presented at the ICON Nanomaterial Environmental Health and

• Overall economic impact of nanotech

• Overall economic impact of nanotech

Capital equipment and software used to

Nanomaterials Nanointermediates Nano-enabled products

MRAM Mobile phone

• Overall economic impact of nanotech

• Market in 2005: $179 million

• Market in 2005: $89 million

• Market in 2005: $54 million

• Market in 2005: $43 million

• Market in 2005: $28 million

Nanostructured metals are

• Market in 2005: $12 million

• Market in 2005: $4.3 million

In vivo diagnostics with

• Market in 2005: $2.5 million

• Market in 2005: <$1 million

Nanowires can replace

• Polymer nanoparticles: Engineered nanoscale

• Overall economic impact of nanotech

50 Total articles on EHS

Published journal articles U.S. government-funded research 2005 sales

Carbon nanomaterials Ceramic nanoparticles Metal nanoparticles

High white Challenge

Real risks Perceptual Risks Regulations

… but research priorities may differ for each

45 Total articles on EHS

Sources: ICON database (icon.rice.edu), review articles, literature searches

Total articles on EHS

Inhalation Skin Injection Injestion Ecological In vitro Multiple

Sources: ICON database (icon.rice.edu), review articles, literature searches

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