AKD Commodities

September 9, 2013
Commodity Gold Silver Oil
S&P GSCI Index
3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 664.33 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% S&P GSCI Index Brent Crude Index Crude Oil Gold Index Silver Index Index 973.79 605.78 1,166.55

Technical View Neutral Buy on Weakness Buy on Weakness

Global Developments:

Number of workers on U.S. payrolls rose by 169K last month, less than the 180K median forecast of economists surveyed. Unemployment rate was forecast to hold at 7.4%, but dropped to 7.3% last month, owing to more people leaving the workforce. The participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, declined to 63.2 percent, the lowest since August 1978, from 63.4 percent. The Fed will cut Treasury purchases to $35 billion from $45 billion after a Sept. 17-18 meeting, while maintaining mortgage-bond buying at $40 billion, according to the median of 34 responses in a Bloomberg survey released on Sept. 6. So long as inflation remains contained, the central bank has said it wont even consider raising its benchmark interest rate until unemployment falls to 6.5 percent. The Fed cut its target for the overnight interbank rate effectively to zero in December 2008 and has held it at that record low. Dollar licked its wounds and U.S. debt yields were off two-year highs after a disappointing U.S. jobs report on Friday, which raised speculation the Federal Reserve, may minimize the size of a likely reduction in stimulus many investors expect later this month. Despite the soft job data, most U.S. primary dealers expect the Fed to announce at its next policy meeting September 17 and 18 that it will cut the size of its bond purchases, according to a Reuters poll on Friday. Chinas exports increased more than estimated in August and inflation stayed below a government target. Chinas economy is picking up after Li announced support measures such as tax cuts for small businesses and extra spending on railways. The producer-price index fell by the least in six months while exports to the U.S. and European Union grew for a second month, underscoring improvements in demand inside and outside China. Japan GDP grew in 2QCY13, despite weakness seen in the nation`s exports and the sale-tax increase plan that threatens different business sectors. GDP grew a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in the quarter ended June, following an expansion by 0.6%, On the yearly record, GDP grew 3.8% compared with a previous growth by 2.6%, and the reading came below market forecasts of 3.9%. President Barack Obama acknowledged domestic and international resistance to his call for a military strike against Syria and said hell make a more detailed case for action in an address to the U.S. public next week.

807.23

Source: Bloomberg

Dollar Index
84

82

80

Event Calendar
Time PST Country
78

Event Reta i l Sa l es y/y Senti x Inves tor Confi dence Bui l di ng Permi ts m/m

Actual

Forecast 3.20% -4 4.40%

Previous 2.30% -4.9 -10.30%

Source: Forex Factory

Nov-12

Jul-12

Mar-12

Sep-12

May-12

Mar-13

Jan-12

Jan-13

May-13

Jul-13

12:15pm 1:30pm 5:30pm

CHF EUR CAD

Source: Bloomberg

International Currencies:

TRJ-CRB Index
335 325 315 305 295 285 275 265

SPOT Dollar Index USD/JPY EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD CHF/USD CAD/USD USD/KRW CNY/USD
Jul-12 Sep-12 Jan-12 May-12 Jan-13 May-13 Mar-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13

Current 82.226 99.660 1.317 1.564 0.919 0.798 0.939 1.040 1,089 6.121

Previous #N/A 99.110 1.318 1.563 0.919 0.800 0.938 1.041 1,093 6.120

Chg +/#N/A 0.550 -0.001 0.001 0.001 -0.002 0.001 -0.001 -4.400 0.001

CYTD Chg% 2.55% 29.58% 1.63% 0.65% -9.94% 2.71% 0.06% 1.81% -5.55% -2.77%

Jun End-12 81.627 79.790 1.267 1.571 1.024 0.801 0.949 1.017 1,145 6.354

Dec End-11 80.178 76.910 1.296 1.554 1.021 0.777 0.938 1.021 1,152 6.295

Source: Bloomberg ( PST 10:00am)

Source: Bloomberg

AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Ltd.

info@akdcommodities.com +92-21-35303032

Copyright2012 AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided in this document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Limited or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Limited or its affiliates to buy or sell any commodities/FX or provide any investment advice or service. AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Limited does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

AKD Commodities
September 9, 2013

Technical Analysis
World Gold Reserves

Gold - XAU
MT
1380 1360 1340 1320 1300 1280 1260 1240 1220 1200 1180

US$bn 12,000 10,000

Market Flow: Gold (spot) Monday settled 1.78% up at US$1391.80/ounce from an intra-day high of US$1393.52/ounce after setting a low of US$1359.37/ounce.

8,000
6,000 4,000

Daily Chart

2,000 Aug-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13
W o rld Gol d R eserve s SP DR Ho l di n g(R H S)

Source: Bloomberg

Closing Snapshot
Close High Low Chg (%) 14D RSI 50-DMA 100-DMA 200-DMA 1,391.80 1,393.52 1,359.37 1.78 56.20 1,327.16 1,359.43 1,491.27

Intraday Support Levels

S1 S2 S3 1,375.00 1359-1366 1,327.00

Technical View
Last quoted at US$1388 Fridays recovery from 1359 has neutralized excessive supply Neutral. Require a test of 1411 to shift outlook to a bullish stance for 1444 and 1480 1496. On the downside, relapse below 1359 1356 can expose pressure towards 1334. Buy on weakness towards 1375, with risk below 1359 / Sell below 1356.

Intraday Resistance Levels

R1 R2 R3 1,391.00 1,411.00 1,444.00

Daily Momentum Data

Minor Averages (5,10,15 MAs) MACD STS Negative Negative Negative

Qasim Anwar Technical Analyst

AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Ltd. info@akdcommodities.com +92-21-35303032

AKD Commodities
September 9, 2013

Technical Analysis
Gold/Silver Ratio

Silver - XAG
Market Flow: Silver (spot) Monday made an intra-high of US$23.94/ounce after making a low of US$23.06/ounce. Silver settled the day 2.90% up at US$23.86/ ounce.

59 57 55 53
51 49 47 45
Oct-12 Jul-12

Daily Chart

Apr-12

Source: Bloomberg

Closing Snapshot
Close High Low Chg (%) 14D RSI 50-DMA 100-DMA 200-DMA 23.86 23.94 23.06 2.90 60.97 21.21 21.81 25.81

Intraday Support Levels

S1 S2 S3 23.67 23.29 22.80

Apr-13

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Technical View
Last quoted at US$23.70 XAG continues to hold above 22.80 22.30 area. Sustainability above the said support can push XAG above 24.50. Ability to do so would clear way towards 25.77 26.49. Buy on weakness up to 23.29 22.80, with risk below 22.30.

Intraday Resistance Levels

R1 R2 R3 23.90 24.28 24.89

Daily Momentum Data

Minor Averages (5,10,15 MAs) MACD STS Negative Negative Negative

AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Ltd. info@akdcommodities.com +92-21-35303032

AKD Commodities
September 9, 2013

Technical Analysis
Brent vs. WTI Oil Spread (US$/bbl)
31
26 21 16 11 6

Oil - WTI
Market Flow: Crude futures (June 2013) Monday made an the intra-day low of 108.12/bbl and made an intraday high of US$110.70/bbl and settled the day 1.99% up at US$110.53/bbl on session close.

Daily Chart

Jun-

Jan-

Jan-

Oct-

Jun-

Mar

Mar

Aug

Source: Bloomberg

Closing Snapshot
Close High Low Chg (%) 14D RSI 50-DMA 100-DMA 200-DMA 110.53 110.70 108.12 1.99 61.85 105.51 99.90 96.18

Intraday Support Levels

S1 S2 S3 108.57 107.81 105.19

Aug

Technical View

Intraday Resistance Levels

R1 R2 R3 110.43 112.05 113.36

Last quoted at US$110.27 After Fridays break WTI looks all set for a stride towards 114.67. Additional strength would scope for 118.91. Any reaction would find cushion around 107.81. Buy on weakness.

Daily Momentum Data

Minor Averages (5,10,15 MAs) MACD STS Positive Positive Positive

AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Ltd. info@akdcommodities.com +92-21-35303032