Claire Kelsey 9/19/11

Kiker-B'b

Linear Regression Report

The data set being modeled and studied in my report is the average per capita Gross Domestic Product of a given country versus the population country. After studying population the large and growing populations income and resources interesting of that

last year in Geography, I developed an interest in in under-developed countries, and the lack of

for the sudden population

growth. I thought it would be

to compare those two aspects of a third world country to those of a first

world. Places like the United States had more of a steady rate of income to keep up with their population, but countries like Kenya do not. But what is the result when side by side? That's what we

these two variables and ones in between are measured discover in this model. The linear regression

equation that models my data is

v= -O.002x+ 16~This

tells us that the slope is almost horizontal, slope tells us that as the population

or equal to 0, and this slight negative the average Gross Domestic Product

decreases,

increases. This trend is true in context of the real world; less populous countries such as Bermuda and Greenland have a greater per capita GDP than much more populated countries such as Kenya or Iraq. The slope tells us that for every dollar or the y

that the per capita Gross Domestic Product increases by, the population,

~......--~
f'\, .

<

/'

~.

value, decreases by 2,000 persons~callY

speaking. The y-intercept tells us

that when the per capita GDPis 0, the population is 163.4./

tl~~ 0.This tells us that our d~a

The r-value, or correlation coefficient, of the linear regression of my data is has a negative slope when graphed out, and
'L./"

considering that our correlation coefficient is very close to 0, we know that our data doesn't form a straight line at all, and is referred to as having no correlation. To find 3 data values that aren't part of the data collected, you would substitute values in for the x to find the population or for the y to find the per capita GDPin the linear regression equation. To find the per capita GDPwhen the population is 14.1 million, you would solve for x in the equation 14.1=0.002x+163.4, in which x, or the GDP,is equal to $74,650. To find the population when the GDPis equal to 3678, the equation would be set up as so: y=0.002(3678)+163.4. In this equation the y-value is 156, and the population would be 156 million. An example of an estimate of the GDPof a country with 12 million people would be 12=-0.002x+163.4, where the GDPwould be equal to $75,700. There are many career paths that use either per capita GDPand/or population of a country, one of the main and most broad ones being economists. Economists utilize per capita GDPto determine the output of a specific country, measure the growth of a country and the standard of living. For economists, GDPis one of the most used measurers of economic growth. Economists essentially study the dispersion of resources by researching, collecting and analyzing data, and keeping up with global economic trends. Human geographers use both ofthe

variables demonstrated distribution,

on my model, primarily population, to study how growth,

and income are related to the culture of a specific place o~. and my linear regression, the relationship

Based on all of this information

between the average per capita GDP and population

of a country do not seem to be

related. There's a lot of variety in my data: some of the more populous countries have a high per capita GDP, while some have a low GDP. Globally speaking, I think there would be a stronger negative correlation if the population and GDP of every

country were included in the data set. Another possible way we could get a stronger correlation would be to look at the population density within the countries and

compare the GDP to that, which would give a much more specific and accurate comparison. Based on the variables present in my report, my conclusion is that with a very slight correlation, and the variables are

there is almost no correlation, faintly related.

/'
.._

,------------_

__

_-----

-.---- ..--.----

Average GDP vs. Population

~
350

~I--------------------------------------1

= '8
~
".C
Q..

~ 300 o 250

+1-----------------------

.S 200 +I-~A~-----------------------

150

1 ... -.&:--------

~ 100

= '

50

I II ,..

.e 20000

40000

60000 80000

41;

100000

120000

Average GDP (in US $)