8 The Guardian Weekly 05.07.

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International news Egypt

Now comes the revolution, stage three

Comment Ahdaf Soueif
Last Sunday Egypt staged gigantic protests, the culmination of an original experiment in mobilisation, where millions signed a document demanding the resignation of president Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood. On Monday the military stepped in. Its chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, issued a statement giving political parties 48 hours to deliver the demands of the people. The Brotherhood says that when Egyptians elected Morsi, they entered into a contract to keep him for four years. The protesters say he was elected on a stated commitment to the goals of the revolution and promises he made, and that hes broken every one of those. Some of the promises were to do with plurality. What Sisi seems to be saying is that Morsi should form a government with the non-Islamist parties. But Morsi has sidestepped this move many times, and its difcult to see who would agree to form a coalition with him now. Do events earlier this week constitute a coup? If it is, it seems to be reluctantly mounted. Sisis statement is clear: the military does not want to rule. But he is wooing the people; he makes apoint of praising their selfempowerment, and as I write six military helicopters ying Egyptian ags circleover my house. Last Sunday afternoon I sat on the kerb at the Roxy intersection in Cairo watching the marches coming from every district of the city towards Morsis seat at the Ettehadeyya palace. People streamed by on both sides of the eight-lane road. For three hours they didnt stop. Tahrir Square too was fuller than it had ever been. Men whod attacked us in February 2011 moved among us in Tahrir. Around these groupings there was the undeniable swirl of the people. And there were chants calling for the military to step in although there were also chants against them. The people insist on treating the army as their own. They want to believe the military has learned its lesson and doesnt want to rule; that the bad people are no longer in Scaf; and that the army chief, General al-Sisi, will oversee another set of elections. The revolutionaries are working hard to point out that this phase is not against Morsi and the Brotherhood as such, but against the continuation of the policies that marked the Mubarak era. Without radical change, these policies will carry on under the next president be he army-appointed or otherwise. But the people want to get rid of Morsi rst and deal with the rest later. The Tamarod (Rebellion) campaign brought the crisis to this critical point. The people who started it had no idea it would grow so big. But they tapped into something real and strong; something that brought millions out on to the streets. Morsi has chosen to ght it. Until last Sunday if hed appointed a prime minister from outside the Brotherhood, people might have given him another chance. Now, grati on the presidential palace walls says, The legitimacy of your ballot box / Is cancelled by our martyrs cons, and we are back to standing at the morgue, clocking the murdered as theyre carried in, and ghting with the coroner to let parents check if their children are in the states fridges. Ahdaf Soueif is an Egyptian short story writer, novelist and political and cultural commentator

At a critical point ... military helicopters y over Cairo protests Reuters And across Egypt the streets of one town after another lled. Once again people had taken to the streets to drum a president out of oce. But there are dierences between now and January and February 2011. In Revolution phase I, Mubaraks ruling National Democratic party (NDP) was the known and declared enemy, as was the security establishment. The military was an unknown quantity which we could (let ourselves) believe would protect the country in the process of transition. The revolution was against corruption and brutality and was for bread, freedom, social justice. The 29 months between then and now have taught us a great deal. Weve learned the extent to which our institutions are hollowed out and our judiciary largely crooked and partisan. Weve seen the bankruptcy of the political elite that was considered the opposition to Mubarak. And the military, under the leadership of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf), saluted our martyrs but demonstrated its devotion to its own business interests and a murderous contempt for the people. These lessons have been learned the hard way, with young people losing friends and limbs and eyes. That was Revolution phase II. Now, one year into Morsis presidency, weve arrived at Revolution phase III. But it is in grave danger of being co-opted by our enemies: the supporters and remnants of the NDP and the security establishment. Last Sunday the revolutionaries whove been steadfast for two years found themselves in uncomfortable company: the previous head of state-security led his own march. There was a police march in uniform. We saw protesting ocers chatting easily under the white banners of young men murdered by the police.

Analysis: Army remains the ultimate arbiter of power

Egypts rst modern revolution, carried out by Gamal Abdel Nasser and his fellow free ocers, overthrew the monarchy and ushered in the rst republic in 1952. The armys actions in 2011 allowed Hosni Mubarak to fall without mass bloodshed. Now the military is moving again to save the country from its squabbling politicians. Cheers from Cairo crowds as the news broke of the armys demarche underlined the positive response from those protesting against President Mohamed Morsi. It was hardly the way people would react to the sort of military coups that took place all over the Arab world in the second half of the 20th century. General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the army chief, was careful to spell out what he was and wasnt prepared to do. Laying down a road map for the future is one thing while calling for an inclusive process that will force an end to the paralysing rift between the Muslim Brotherhood and its opponents but the army would not get directly involved in politics and government, he said. It was a reminder that for all the drama, sacrices and aspirations of the revolution, the army remains the ultimate arbiter of power. If the army has been reluctant to take on overtly political and governmental responsibilities, it is certainly happy to wield power behind the scenes. That much was clear in December in the run up to a constitutional referendum. Sisi invited Morsi, ministers and a wide spectrum of political and public gures to what he called a social dialogue a political act that was taken without consultation. In the past, the army has intervened in limited, tactical ways. But Sisi warned explicitly on 23 June that it would step in if clashes between government and opposition supporters threatened to lead the country into a dark tunnel of conict. With the sustained mass protests of the Tamarod movement, that moment has now arrived. Egypts soldiers have taken their countrys fate into their hands again. Ian Black
Leader comment, page 22