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and
of
Psychology
Method
Philosophy
Scientific
Chance,
Love
and
Logic
International
Library
and
:
of
Psychology
Method
OGDEN,
M.A.
Philosophy
GENERAL
EDITOR
Scientific
C. K.
(Magdalene
College,Cambridge)
VOLUMES
PHILOSOPHICAL THE MISUSE OF
ALREADY
PUBLISHED
STUDIES
MIND
by
G.
E.
MOORE,
KARIN
Litt.D.
STEPHEN
by
Note
.
Prefatory
CONFLICT
PSYCHOLOGY TRACTATUS AND AND DREAM
.
by
.
Henri
.
Bergson by by
.
W. W.
.
H. H.
R. R. L.
RIVERS, RIVERS,
F.R.S. F.R.S.
POLITICS
LOGICO-PHILOSOPHICUS
.
by
W.
WITTGENSTEIN
Introduction
by by
Bertrand
.
Russell
.
THE
MEASUREMENT
OF
EMOTION
William
by
C. G.
WHATELY
SMITH
Brown
by
JUNG, by
A. D. and
H.
M.D.,
D.
LL.D.
RITCHIE
SCIENTIFIC
SCIENTIFIC THE MEANING
by
.
C.
BROAD,
I. A.
VAN
LittD.
by
C.
K.
.
OGDEN
RICHARDS
DER
THE OF
UNCONSCIOUS REASONING
.
.
by J. by
HOOP
EUGENIC
RIGNANO
IN
THE ANALYSIS OF AND PSYCHOLOGY FOR OF OF MATTER
PREPARATION
by
.
BERTRAND
RUSSELL,
H. R.
PSYCHOLOGY
INDIVIDUAL MATHEMATICS THE THE PSYCHOLOGY PHILOSOPHY
ETHNOLOGY
by
W.
RIVERS,
ALFRED
by
PHILOSOPHERS
. .
by
G.
G.
H.
HARDY, SMITH,
VON
MYTHS
. .
by
ELLIOT
THE
UNCONSCIOUS
by
G. Elliot Smith
E.
HARTMANN
by Professor
DIAGNOSIS
by
ELEMENTS OF AND PSYCHOTHERAPY
.
F.
G.
CROOKSHANK,
WILLIAM
M.D.,
F.R.C.P. D.Sc.
by
BROWN,
M.D.,
EMOTION
INSANITY Introduction
by by Professor
PHENOMENA
.
S.
THALBITZER
H.
off ding by by
E.
J. DINGWALL
F. PAULHAN
by
EDWARD
J.
DENT WOOD
COLOUR-HARMONY
DEVELOPMENT THE PSYCHE THE HISTORY OF OF CHINESE MATERIALISM
by JAMES
THOUGHT
. .
by
LIANG
by by
PEOPLES
.
by
PRIMITIVE
OF METHOD VALUE OF MIND PRIMITIVE IN P.
RADIN,
Ph.D.
D.Sc.
PSYCHOLOGY
by by
B. P.
MALINOWSKI,
SARGANT BARBARA
STATISTICAL
SCOPE AND
ECONOMICS THEORY
ECONOMIC
by
EDUCATIONAL
THE THE PRINCIPLES PHILOSOPHY
PSYCHOLOGY OF OF CRITICISM
'
.
by
. .
.
by
.
I. A. H.
RICHARDS
AS
IF
'
.
. .
by
VAIHINGER
Chance,
Love
and
Logic
PhilosophicalEssays
By
CHARLES
the
late
S.
PEIRCE
Edited
with
an
Introduction
by
MORRIS
R.
COHEN
With
Supplementary
of
Essay
Peirce
on
the
Pragmatism
by
JOHN
DEWEY
LONDON
,
KEGAN
NEW
PAUL,
YORK
:
TRENCH,
TRUBNER
BRACE "
"
CO., LTD.
INC.
HARCOURT,
COMPANY,
1923
PRINTED
IN THE U.S.A.
PREFACE
IN the
the
most
essays
gathered
and
together
coherent
in
this
volume
account
we
have
of the
developed
of
available
whom
philosophy Dewey,
many and and
Charles
S.
thinkers
Peirce,
in in the
James, France,
of their and in
as
Royce,
Ger
leading Italy
have of
England,
forefront
placed
recent
the
great
seminal
value
as
minds the
times. of
a
Besides
expression
well
essays deal this
highly
and
original
mind,
unusually
these
a
trained
are
informed
exact
sciences,
sources
also
important
giving
the
of
great
of
of
contemporary
American
philoso
omissions
correc
phy.
or
Because have
importance
text
"lo
changes
of
some
been
beyond
of
the
a
tion
obvious in the
slips
of
the
recasting
few
ex
pressions
In
a
interest which
intelligibility.
with
notes
subject
the
bristles
to
suggestions
of such
and
or
diffi
dis
culties
sent
temptation
add But
explanation
notes
is almost doubled
comment
as
insuperable.
the
on
as
might
refrained
easily
from
have all
size the
of
text
this
I have
except
few
footnotes
(indi
cated, (and
various
not
usual, hope
lines it of
to
in
brackets).
introduction
to
is intended the I
can
reader in
concatenate
contained
these
essays. their
pretend
minds
have like
adequately
those of
indicated and
am
significance.
have been
Great
James
and I
Royce persuaded
nourished
by
these
writings
that
they
iv
PREFACE
still
offer
mines
of
fruitful
suggestion.
their
Prof.
for
Dewey's
fundamental
sup
plementary question
Grateful
of
essay
indicates
value
the
metaphysics, acknowledgment
to
viz.
the
nature
of
reality.
to
is
here
made
Mrs.
Paul
Carus
and
the
Open
of
Court
Publishing
II from the
Co.
for
permission
The
late
to
reprint
Carus
the
essays
Part
Monist.
Paul
was
one
of
the
very
few
who
not
only
gave
Peirce
an
opportunity
of his
to
publish,
but
publicly
recognized
the
importance
I
must
writings.
my
to
also
acknowledge permission
Peirce
from the
obligation
reprint Journal
of his
to
Professor
Dewey Pragmatism
to
for
kind
essay
on
the
of
Philosophy, Woodbridge
and
the
editors
of
that
Journal,
to
Professors
and
Bush,
Part V
for
permission
the
reprint
was
some
material
of
my
own.
of
Bibliography
compiled
by
Mr.
Irving
Smith.
MORRIS
R.
COHEN
THE
COLLEGE
OF
THE
CITY
OF
NEW
YORK.
TABLE
OF
CONTENTS
PAGE
INTRODUCTION
vii
-
PROEM.
THE
RULES
OF
PHILOSOPHY
PART
I.
CHANCE of
AND
LOGIC
(Illustrations
of
the
Logic
Science.)
Taxation of
1.
The
Belief
,
2.
How
to
Make
Our
of
Ideas
Clear
Y
32^
61
3.
The
Doctrine
Chances
of Induction
4.
Th'e
Probability
Order of
82
5.
The
Nature
106
6.
Deduction,
Induction
and
Hypothesis
131
PART
II.
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
"-
1.
The
The
Architecture
Doctrine of
of
Theories
157
2.
Necessity
Examined
179
3.
The
Law
of
Mind
202
4.
Man's
Glassy
Essence
238
5.
Evolutionary
Love
267
SUPPLEMENTARY
ESSAY
"
The
Pragmatism
of
Peirce,
by
John
Dewey
301
INTRODUCTION
MANY
and
diverse
are
the
are,
minds
that
form
the the
philo
great
I
sophic community.
masters,
the
to
a
There
first and
rear
foremost,
their
system
the
varied
builders
who
stately palaces
minds
are
towering
served
moon.
These
architectonic
and
by
host
of followers
to
auxiliaries.
Some
of in
make
these
mystic
are
mansions
commodious, facades
weak many
more
while
others
engaged
are
making
their
imposing.
or
Some much-needed
busy
addi these
are
places
more
building
engaged
army down mark
are
in of upon of
defending
critics who
and human who for
against
and
or
the
impetuous
to
eager is
new
ready
bears
pounce mortal
destroy
all
that tion.
more
the
imperfec
are
There
narrow
are
also
the
those philologists,
in
sense
scholars,who
the
stones
dig
not
only
serve
facts
or
roots, but
also
or as
for
which
may
either from
in
building
weapons
are
of
destruction.
rovers
Remote
these, however,
search surrounds
not
the
intellectual into
who,
thick
for
new
venture fields,
the
jungle
They
and with
to
the
little patch
of
cultivated
science.
in their those
com
wanderings
who tread
completely
Those
of
lose that
touch
return
the beaten
paths.
the
and
munity
not
often
speak
strangely
arouse
strange
things;
for
it is
to
always
them
that and
they change
sufficient
trails into
vii
faith
others
follow
their
high
roads.
viii
INTRODUCTION
Few
nowadays
value
of these
are
pioneer
estab
minds; and
lished lost.
can
it is often
universities
to
facilitate their
work,
prevent it from
being
But find
like universities,
other
well-managed institutions,
work
place only
for
those
who
well
in harness.
conven
The
like the
or socially no
tionallyunacceptable, are
fruitful their
one
kept out,
matter
was
how
originality.Charles
restless
certainly gift of of
of
these
pioneer
his and
souls
fatal
genuine originality.In
papers
a an
Part
II of this
on
get glimpses of
philosophicsystem
wealth of
which and
working
To
one
with
a
unusual
material
apparatus.
added
rich of the
power
coin
apt and
strikingterminology.
these
preliminary sketches
to the
philo
inherent
as
difficulty
and
to
such
neglect
of
poverty.
certain
or instability
lack
self-mas way
moral few
or
conventional
at
which, except
him
to
for
years
a
Johns Hopkins,
and
caused
thus
be excluded
him of much
from
university career,
stimulus the years
to
deprived
needed
ordinary advanced,
consistency
and
As intelligibility.
studies logical
more
of his
early years,
Peirce
became
so
more
involved; youth,
that
James,
the intellectual
later found
INTRODUCTION
"
ix
his lectures
on
pragmatism,
darkness
statement
not
no
to
discounted entirely
in
or
by the
formal
fact that
or logical
James
had
inter
con
aptitudefor
mathematical
siderations.
Despite
one
these
out
as
scientific logic;and
of
some
in
the of
pregnant
led
as
to
the
as
pragmatism
and
radical idealism
empiricism of James,
of Royce, and
the
to
well
to
philosophicmovement
of
Nee-Realism.
James, Royce,
and
Russell, as"
of the
logicianslike Schroeder,brings us
a
better than
work,
his
contemporaries.
Peirce scientist.
was
by antecedents, training,and
He
was a son
occupation
of and the
Benjamin
his
Harvard
mathematician,
his
early environment, to
Scientific School,
gether with
trainingin
claim
Lawrence he
was
that
brought
not
up
in
laboratory. He
mathematical
made
important contributions
also in
only
in
logic but
photometric astronomy,
as
geodesy,
many
and
psychophysics, as
Peirce
to
well
in
years
worked the
on
the problems of
his contribution
the
pendu
lum,
in
was
at
once
recognized by European
International
investigators
this
field.
The
Geodetic
Congress,
to
INTRODUCTION
which usual
he
was
the
to
representative, gave
men
un
attention
like
Cellerier
him.1
measure
and
acknowledged
other
the
their
to obligations
scientific work
involving fine
ment,
of in
correlative
seem
probable
the
error,
to
decisive influence
of chance.
development
of
Peirce's actual
philosophy
Philosophersinexperiencedin
may
as
absolute
truth
"every
matter
attracts
masses
other
particle
the
as directly
product
of their
inverselyas
and
square
of
to
distance,"or
water
are
"when ratio
hydrogen
of their in
oxygen is 1:8."
combine
But
the
weights
to those
actuallyengaged
of
measuring natural
shows
no
phenomena
such worker
instruments
or
nature precision,
absolute
constancy
no
simplicity. As
no
every
one
laboratory
observer
in To
knows,
two
observers,and
successive the
men
difficulty.
nature
They
was
faith that
created
were
attributable
of his
observer
faith
or
crudity
still is,a
a
instruments.
This
to
heroic
was,
most
powerful stimulus
scientific research
few
defend
it
to-day
in its
to
explicitform,
that
show
while
observer
See
Plantamour's
d'un
"
Recherche
ses
Experitnentales
le
mouvement 3-4.
simultant
pendtde
et de
supports," Geneva,
1878, pp.
INTRODUCTION
xi
jectswhich
the the
he
measures
never
deviate
one
in the
from slightest
more
simple law.
Doubtless, as
becomes
expert in
is
a
there
"
notice
able diminution
no
of the
personal
of
error,"but
our
amount
of
ever
no
refinement
instru
ments
have
in
to
though eliminatingirregular,
law of nature and
small, variations.
you
more
Try
more
the
observations,the
from
they
There
will be is
to
show
irregular departure
our
certainly nothing in
us are
in empirical
to
prevent
nature
so near
from
saying
that
all the
so-called
be
of
merely
each
instances that
of variation
their
limits be
other
differences
the ap
may
neglectedfor
to
certain
purposes.
Moreover,
in
mass
proach
when but the
we
constancy is observed
are
only
phenomena,
of
dealing with
also
very
large numbers
constant
particles;
when dis
con
approach
ratios
very
large. Hence,
errors
without
denying
crepancies due
tends that
"
solelyto
must
to
of far
observation,Peirce
minute
we
suppose
more
discrepancies
law
to exist
to
a
owing
the
imperfect
of the
cogency facts
itself,
definite
certain
3
swerving
formula."
if
It is usual
to associate
disbelief in absolute
for freedom
or
laws
of
na-
ffture with
sentimental
claims
theological
attack rational
to insist that
exact
Peirce's
a
entirelyin the
of the
interests
of
logic and
As
a
account
physical universe.
rigorous logician
our
familiar with
2
the actual
190.
procedures by
3
which
knowledge
P.
Pp. 162-163.
xii
INTRODUCTION
of
the
laws
of
nature
is
obtained, he
their claim
to
could
not
admit
ness.
experiencecould
the
prove
absolute
physical laws
of
actuallyknown,
excessive
like
Boyle's
law
or
the law
involve gravitation,
course
simplifica
thus
a
phenomenal
large
empirical inaccuracy.
traditional
more
positive
or
objectionagainst the
invariable makes
cuts
us
assumption
of absolute
laws
assumption
thus
or
the
of regularities the
to
universe
ever
ultimate,and explainingthem
the
off from
comes
of possibility be
as
how
as
there
much
in regularity
universe
there is.
But the
in
occurrence
of any
is regularity modern
very
thing
to
be
explained. Moreover,
statistical mechanics
and
thermodynamics (theory
that the in regularity that of the the
etc.) suggest
of
a
matter
gradual growth;
from
a
whole
of\
a
physicalnature
maximum of
is
growth
chaos A
to diversity
uniformity or entropy.
of leadingphysicist
the
suggested
is like
or
that that
the of
a
process
whole
up
physical universe
of
a
continuous of
more
shaking
hap-hazard
chance
a
mixture
things,which
uniform
thus
gradually results
Since
real Duns
in
progressively
Scotus, students
its individual
cannot
of
entityhas
character
(itshaecceitas
deduced from
thisness)which
that which
of the
be
ex
plained
or
is uniform.
Every
take undePeirce is
explanation,for example,
existences particular rived
means
moon's
path
must
for
granted. Such
or original
and individuality
diversityis preciselywhat
from this
by chance;
law.
and
point of
view
chance
prior to
INTRODUCTION
xiii
is necessary
to
that
infinitesimal
which
tendency
is itself be
an on
in
things
accidental the road
to
acquire
variation
habits,a tendency
grown the
habitual.
evolution and
We
to
explain
the
limited
uniformities
actuallyprevailingin
A
good
deal But
of
even
the
may
sound have
somewhat
mythologic.
of ogy
a offering
if it
it would
the merit
rational
to
mythol
are were
according
which the
atoms
in the
universe
to-day preciselyin
on
condition
in which which
they
the
day
of
is forced
to
regard
as
all the
spontaneity and
truth.
novelty
or illusory,
devoid of the
of substantial
The
the
doctrine
primacy Just
as
of chance law is
a
naturallysuggests
chance
habit
so
primacy
of mind. The
is
matter
inert mind.
principallaw
of mind
is that ideas
literally spread
and
more
themselves
or
continuously and
that
become
who
more
general
of any
so inclusive,
people
form
communities When
sort
in
common.
this continuous
nur
parents
have
we
for
their
off
thinkers
their
ideas,
have
creative
evolution.
James
between
and
Royce
have
called of
attention
to
the
similarity
and
N
Peirce's the
doctrine
tychistic-agapism (chance
of
love)
both
account
me
and
creative
evolution
to restore
Bergson.
But in
seems
while their
to
philosophiesaim
of the nature
life and
growth
of
things,Peirce's approach
to
to have
marked
advantages, owing
its
being
in closer
xiv
INTRODUCTION
touch
with
on
modern the
is
largely^ explain
based
certain
contention
mechanics the
cannot
empirical facts,such
eye
one
and of
a
of the
merely
resemblance
of pattern, which
of principles
no con
well be
explained by
the mechanical
account
vergent evolution.
of the of possibility
Peirce's
involves
rejection
mechanical
explanations. Indeed, by
of mechanics he is enabled
to
carrying chance
elaborate
a
of proto Instead
plasm
of
to
explain the
habit.*
a
postulating with
of
Spencer
Bergson
for
continuous
growth
in
Peirce diversity, in
allows
growth
of habits both
and diversity
uniformity.
all
The
Spencerian mechanical
mere
philosophy
There
can
reduces be
no can
to diversity
spatialdifferences.
new
substantial
novelty; only
The
forms evolution of
or
combinations
creative the
of
support
in
to
claims
spon
Spencerian
the
assuming
the
proceeding
for
simple
complex.
allows
diversityand
or
as specificity
endowment in
some
of
things,which
respects and
of
increase
in others. also of
acquires the
habit
both
of may
taking on,
thus
lay
ing aside,habits.
or
lead to homogeneity
uniformity as
Not
to
greater heterogeneity.
even
only
has
Bergson
he
for the
actual
diversityand
spontaneity of things,but
any
is in
much
other
modern
phi-
INTRODUCTION
xv
and the
coherence medieval
of the world.
effects
by uniting
with
regard
for
the
of universals reality
the modern
scientific use
war
of the the
unfortunate
and
between
pioneers of
modern of
science
the adherents
of the scho
one
lastic doctrine
substantial
of human nominalism
extreme
forms,
has
been
of
the
great misfortunes
lute atomism and
thought, in
the
that it made of
abso
professed creed
physi- \
on
cal science.
the
Now,
nominalism, the
no room
insistence
genuine
to
realityof law.
leaves, as
the
is
Hume
had
can
courage
present
as
determine
as
thej
not.
that
anything
likely to happen
modern
such
chaotic
natural
mathematical of the
more so
science
by the persistent
one
has
indicated
this
to do
clearly than
Peirce
who
was
uniquely qualified
of Duns Scotus
by being a
close student
both
and
of modern
scientific methods.
the
views
of his
James.
James,
who
so
generouslyindicated
was
to Peirce
for his
pragmatism,
also
largely
to Peirce
of radical the
empiricism.5
latter
doctrine
seeks
to
rescue
the
traditional British
resolved
nominalism,which
of
had
everything into
It is
number
mutually exclusive
while in his
mental
states.
curious,
however,that
use
extensive
of the
of continuity, he principle
0
not
free himself
398-400.
xvi
INTRODUCTION
from
extreme
extreme
British
nominalism
in
his
philosophy
"
witness
the
the
individualism
philosophy or
equally
of
anthropomorphism suggestions as
been
to
his
use
religion. Certain
of
Peirce's
continuity in
in his the
we can
social of
philosophy have
social but
developed by Royce
and the worked
nature
out
theory
consciousness remains
own
of and
community;6
but
much
to be
"
repeat
over
Peirce's this
hope:
and
May
have
some
future leisure
to
student
go
ground again
the
to the world."
to
continued This he
to
most
be
occupied
significantly
to
articles
logicaltopics contributed
Dictionary of Philosophy.7
articles it is
is stressed.
to
To
use
the
Kantian
ter
native
Peirce, the
regulative rather
constitutive
aspect of these
of chance
a
Thus
the doctrine
James' radical
"
empiricism,
blind
of necessity
fi
block
in Good
universe,"but
and
keep-
Royce, Studies
Vol.
2.
Evil, and
Problem
oj Christianity,
to
esp.
Baldwin
(Mental
Development)
heavily indebted
of
Royce
work
in this respect.
7
These
on
articles which
are
by-products
was
or
fragments
for
many
comprehensive
For the
on
Logic
this
Peirce
engaged
no
years.
or
writing
has
of
book,
Royce
be
declared,
greater mind
greater
to
erudition been
appeared
and will
Only
several with
chapters
other Peirce's
seem
have
finished,
manu
included edition
hitherto
unpublished
is
now
scripts in
writings that
being
INTRODUCTION
xvii
ing
open
possibleexplanation of
an
the them
genesis of
the
laws
with
of nature
and
of interpretation
so probability,
in accordance
the theorems
as
of
well
as
in
feeling generates
of
rational
diversitythrough
it also
habit
generality
of truth in any of
co
but continuity,
gives us
the
the
test
meaning
as
social
to
whether
proposition is
postulatesan
its
indefinite
number
operating investigators.On
love
doctrine
of
(agapism)
have
even
also
a
recognized
important fact
which makes
us
that
generalideas
their nature
certain attraction
we
divine their
though
before
cannot
clearlydetermine
precise meaning
quences.
are
told
expressly
that
"synechism
doctrine.
is
a
not
an
ultimate
absolute
metaphysical
It is
and
avoiding hypotheses
that of such
or
is ultimate
and, therefore,inexplicable.
are:
(Examples
hypotheses
uniform of laws
the existence
of abso
lutelyaccurate
absolute
of nature, the
eternityand
be sure, of the upon the in
likeness
etc.)
is
an
To
synechist cannot
deny
element
or explicable ultimate,since
directlyforced
of
a
him. The
to
But
he cannot
of
regard
an
it
as
source
explanation.
on
assumption
science.
barrier alone
the road
can
"The
anything
is the
same
be
understood
is the form
8
which generality
thing
Baldwin's
Dictionary,article Synechism.
xviii
INTRODUCTION
as
continuity."9
is
This
insistence
on
the with
to
a
generality
due
of
form intelligible
on
perfectlyconsistent
emphases
realist
the
Scotist in
connotes
element
means
of will
or
but will-resistence,
or
logical
any But of
procedure
of falsity
proposition
as a no
refers
to
particularperceptions.10
can
multitude
of individuals
exhaust
the meaning
relations
continuum, which
the
includes
of
a
also
organizing
cannot
of
any
order,
concept
to be
be
in the
in
manner
is rather
sought
to
all such
reactions contribute
of
the whole
development of evolutionary
that
concrete
reasonableness
the
process.
In
means
integrity
it is
general is
more
II This
insistence
on
the
as
heuristic
principle in
natural
science,
of his
Peirce
has
James.
Prof. the
Dewey
in authoritatively the
supplementary
to the sources
of
generalignorance as
this incurious
pragmatism which
on
prevailsin
age,
some
remarks
the actual
be in order.
was
be littledoubt
that Peirce
lation of the
the influence
10
Baldwin's
a
Dictionary, art.
Individual: will be
a
"
Everything
whose
identity
consists in
continuity of reactions
INTRODUCTION
xix
of Chauncey
Wright.11 Wright
creative
was
who
had
in
first hand
ac
quaintance with
scientific work
led
mathematics,
and
Bain This
use con
by
the
study
of Mill
draw
distinction
men
between
the
of
like Spencer, to
myth by
of
or men
picture of
like Newton
the
as
world,
means
and for
as a
the
scientific
of laws
knowledge
had
phenomena.
Gravitation
Newton.
made
of
a
contribution
law which
scientific was
has enabled
the formulation
us
to to
deduce
all
the then
or
and of
anticipate
would of the
predict many
otherwise
facts the
existence
the
which
not
be
even
suspected, e.g.,
existence the
prin
are
modern
and is
physical
science
through
11
The
personal relations
Peirce in
a
Peirce
and
Wright
1857
when
on
were
thus
de
by
p.
letter to
must
Ladd-Franklin been
a
(Journal of Philosophy
1
first made level
pene
13,
719):
of
was
"
"It
about mind
acquaintance
S. Mill. He
Chauncey
a
Wright,
about He
the
a
of
J.
thorough
and I used
or
mathematician.
to
had
very many
most
trating intellect.
sixties I
was
He
have
lively and
years.
close
disputations lasting
started
a
two
three
hours 'The
In
"
the
called
Metaphysical
was
Club.'
Wright
were name
the
strongest member
William of doctrine
probably
and
saw
next.
was
"
Then that be
Frank and
Abbott,
the
James
others." the
"It
there
pragmatism
to
light." It might
of accidents that
Peirce's
tychism
a
is indebted which
to
no
Wright's doctrine
is bound of knowledge
"
weather," ing
nature
doctrine from
maintained
moment
against LaPlace
to
mind
moment
encounter
genuine novelty
us
in phenomena, See
which
amount
would
enable
to
foresee. Hist,
Wright's
Philosophical Discussions
1876, also
Cambridge
of
American
Literature,Vol. 3, p. 234.
XX
INTRODUCTION
laws
are
the
finders This
rather
than
merely
the
the
summaries
of
truths.
conception of
experimental scien
attainingnew
Peirce's
the
startingpoint
in found which
12
pragmatism.
the
latter
is embodied is to be
the in the
principlethat
"all the
meaning
concept
conceivable
or
experimental phenomena
of the concept of could the
affirmation
In
denial
imply."
the
earlier
statement
pragmatic
maxim,13
emphasized
the consequences
or
for conduct
an
of rejection
man
idea; but
did not
of
is action
appeal
him
much
sixtyas
follow like
it did at
thirty.1*Naturally
of
could
the
development
all modern
pragmatism by
James
who,
almost and
psychologists,was emphasized
thorough
sensible
nominalist
always
seemed
to
particular
such
em-
experience.15 It
Peirce
that
12
p.
180.
13 14
volume,
say
pp.
we
as
that
the
sake
of
action
would
be
to
say p.
that 175.
there
15
such letter
thing
to
rational
purport."
and the
The
Mrs.
Ladd-Franklin
to
quoted
anxious
to
Peirce
possible, could
incidental
"
not
understand
on
latter's lectures
pragmatism.
that
can
Peirce's
judgments
others
so
is worth with
mean as
quoting
that.
here:
Modern
psycholoigsts anything
seems
as so
are
soaked does
not
they I,
to
cannot
understand
that
whom Truth
nothing
and
thoroughly
real
generals, and
powers
regards world,
curious
Justice
the literally
most
powerful
with
the the
men
expect to be understood
by the thoroughgoing
idealists tainted between in Absolute his World
on
Wundtian?
thing is to
like
see
absolute hover
as
or
who,
John
Dewey,
Sensationalism.
are ex
Royce's tremely
opinions
near
developed
His
Individualism elements of
to
mine.
insistence
purpose
in
intellectual
concepts
is essentiallythe
pragmatic position."
INTRODUCTION
xxi
phasis
of had
on
particularexperiences endangered
in the hands of
men
the
principle
continuitywhich
reformed
to
like Weierstrass
this
a reason
modern
own
mathematics. doctrine
For
he
began
pragmaticism,
save
sufficiently kidnappers
the is
he
thought, to
He never, that the
it from
popularity.
principleof pragmatism,
clarified mental
idea
(because constituted)by
consequences. of the idea
to
its conceivable
we
experi
Indeed,
of
if
want
to
clarify the
the prag
meaning
matic
pragmatism,
will be the
let
us
apply
test
it.
What
effect of
accepting it?
ideas
or
Obviously
habits of
it will
be
to
develop
certain
general
has, therefore,a
of
an
decidedly
or
intel
cast.
meaning
intuition
idea
proposition is
out
not
by
of it but
by working
does
not
its im
plications.
It
admits
can
that have
thought
no
constitute without
reality. Categories
action
an or
concrete
being
is is
none
"
immediate
feeling.
But
thought
the less
essential
ingredientof reality;thought
the
to
the
melody Prag
rational
not
on
running through
succession
of
our
sensations."
matism, according
purport,
not
to
define
the
the
our
sensuous
It is interested
in
our
the effect of
ideas, but
Whether
a
in
man
the
guides
certain
is to pay
a
damages
in the
lawsuit
depend,
in
fact,on
cause.
term
Aristotelian logicsuch
proximate
It is of interest to observe
that
though Peirce
is
an
ardent makes
admirer
of Darwin's
method,
his
scientific caution
xxii
INTRODUCTION
him
refuse
to
apply
of
the
analogy
the
of
biologicnatural
and
selec
tion to the
manner
realm
ideas, in
wholesale
uncritical
selec
become lately
the
fashionable.
of views
Natural
tion
favor
triumph
But
which
directly
entertain
influence
biologicsurvival.
may
the
pleasure of
the
overbalance
inconvenience rhetorical
deceptive character.
Thus
scientific evidence.
Peirce tributions
preferred to
to
call himself
so
his
con
logic have
far For
a
proved
generally
recognized achievement.
contributions
we
may
well
begin
observation
cultivated that since
that
as
though
few
branches
as
of philosophy have
was
been
to
continuously
science time of
logic,Kant
made The
no reason
able
affirm
the the
logichad
substantial
for
progress
of Aristotle.
this is that
on
Aristotle's scientific
a
based
his
own
procedure
method
cedure.
so
as
a as
and zoologist,
is still in
essence
valid pro
far
But of
when
to
describe
cannot
the
cast
mathematical
it into in such nil the the
com
method
physical science, we
form without
Aristotelian
involving ourselves
to
plicated artificialities as
of Aristotle's
us
reduce
almost
to
value
logicas
an
organon. from
Aristotle's
two
logicenables
But the has
to make
singleinference
of
a
premises.
vast
multitude
from the need
theorems
that modern
as
mathematics
nature
derived shows
few of
premises
to
the
of.
number,
inference
INTRODUCTION
xxiii
that shall
tice To tive of
as
correspondto
the
modern,
to
more
complicated, prac
Aristotle's logicdid
this
do
would effectively
logicalgenius, togetherwith
of the
intimate
knowledge
sciences.
the methods
This
is in the nature
of the
very
rare
combination, examining
not
are
critical in
procedure
which
as
they
in
is their
when their
to
work, they
fall back
on
of the
traditional
logicwhich
"
they
days.
Moreover,
For in
the
last three
the
centuries
or field,
thought
otherwise been
The
in laboratories,
face of the
men
facts,while
chairs
of
logic have
by
who
breathe the
great Leibnitz
had
here, as
else
where,
his
worldly occupations
opportunity
was
It
not
until
igth century
that
two
mathematicians,
for
a more
DeMorgan,
gen
non-syllogis
logicof
to especially
importance
of the
relations.
the
is to have
recognized
de
of both possibilities
them
have
generalized and
veloped
The
into
and his
16
extent
thoroughnessof
fragmentary
Baldwin's
has
a
been rather
obscured
by
way
writingand by
Method.
Dictionary,art.
xxiv
/INTRODUCTION
unwieldy symbolism.
such
as
modern Still,
mathematical
logic,
is but
a
development
This
account
phase
of Peirce's of
highly
Such
technical
an
and
an
of it is out in Lewis'
place
account
will
be
found
I refer to
it here the
only
to
remind
Illustrations
of
a
Logic of
the of
Sciences
(Part
I of this work
volume)
have
background
patient detailed
which
is still
being
been
old
held
in rather
low in
esteem
by
followers
stated with
of the
classical methods
it has of
an
philosophy.
that it is and is
objection to
the minutiae
a
been
mainly
concerned of Now
no
artificial
language
value it should
as
guide
to
the
interpretationof reality.
that retard
be
readilyadmitted
apt
Yet
to
preoccupation with
the
no
symbolic logic
is rather
irresponsible
means
of philosophicfancy. flight
an
this is
by
always
those
evil.
on By insisting
an
accuracy and
that is
painful to
impatient to
obtain
sweeping
comforting,though hasty,
to
remove
well calculated
"
the
philosophy
of abso
lutelycertain
conflict of from make of the
our
there
greatest
opinion.
This
situation
arises in part
not
fact that in
popular expositionwe
do
have
to
premises
or
all sorts
as
dubious
17
prejudices are
anticipatedthe
did the
not most most
implicitly appealed
important
out
to
abso-
"Peirca
when clue he
to
successors
one
even
work
them,
himself.
again
finds
the
recent
developments
p. 79.
writings of
Peirce,"
Lewis'
Survey
of Symbolic
Logic,
INTRODUCTION
xxv
lutely necessary
terms
principles. Also, by
a
the
use one
of
popular
which
one
have
from
meaning
are
to
that
the most
conclusions
thus
from
seeming
By
tech
making assumptions
nical with the
reason
rules
by using
of
terms
that
do
drag
penumbras
meaning
them,
the method
of
symbolic logicmay
cruellyreduce
But there is
no
supposing
the way
to
that
pretentiousness rather
Man range the
than
humility is
to
philosophicsalvation.
universe bound
is bound of his of
speculate about
but such he
the
beyond
to
the
knowledge, settingup
There
is not
indulge
vanity
speculationsas
no reason
absolutelycertain
for
dogmas.
greater
to
is, however,
accuracy truth. has of
denying
that
us
rigor and
cern new
expositioncan
mathematics
reallyhelp
since
dis and
Modern
Gauss
Weierstrass
increased
actuallybeen
makes
no
by
old sub Eu
rigor which
procedure
as
proofs
of
Taylor's theorem
of
longer possible.
for the up any
stitution clidean of
proofs based
Nor Where
vast
fields
on
geometry.
has
effect
philosophy. tinuitywere
sions
use
formerly concepts
awe or
and infinity
recurrent
con occa
objects of gaping
for intellectual
violence/8 we
Peirce and for
are
beginning
accurate amount
to
them,
thanks
senses.
to
Royce,
in
and of
definable
a
Consider,
which
Peirce
instance,the
priorinonsense
18
eliminates
by pointing out
the infinite
as
Hans
Breitmann
is symbolic of those
who
"
solved
one
eternal
sphere."
xxvi
INTRODUCTION
that
the
applicationof
removes so
of
continuityto
a a a
span
first
of consciousness
or
necessityfor assuming
the range of vision
on
last moment;
likewise has
no
large
the
ground
These
line between
will be
considerations
force of the old
utterly de (fundamental
time and
of the and
arguments
others) as
to the
necessary
soon
of infinity
Similar
enlightenment is
use
likelyto
result from
careful
are
of
terms
like relative in
and but
absolute,
Ariadne of
bones
of contention
philosophy
of
exploration in symbolism
clear of
theoretical mathematics.
physics, because
Other the
definite made
important hypothetical
in
truths
character
of universal
no no
the
consequent
from
sight that
alone, since
establish There which that
an
particularscan
number of
universals
hypotheses can
without
given data
fact. existing
an even more
is, however,
positive direction
in
symbolic logicserves
is in
throwing lighton
of
of
meaning.
to
Philosophers have
the
nature
a
light-heartedly
questions as
'
of
significant signs as
of
merely
matter
language.
But for
Peirce
in the
Glassy [Shakespearian
to
Mirror-Like]
nature
as
Essence,
exhibit
man's
symbolic.19
which
doctrine logical
19
regards signs or
one
See
Journal of
i55-i57, American
article
A of
New Arts
List and
Categories in
7,
the
Proceedings of the
and
Academy
Baldwin's
Sciences, Vol.
287-298
article
on
Sign, in
Dictionary.
INTRODUCTION
xxrii
the
fundamental and
aspects
of
the
universe
(Thoughts
of Peirce
other
two).
Independently
great and
life
but
in line with
thought
shown
another
thinker,Santayana, neglected
of
man
has
that is bound
up
is concerned It is not
with
symbols.
that, since
Boole
with the and sym
altogether accidental
those who have
DeMorgan,
occupied themselves
to
deal
with
problem
when
a
The probability.
the
is indicated
by
Peirce
formulates
as
problem
of
probable inference
in such
or
to
make
and
o) of
values
range
these
two
limits.
technical
device
same
class.
The
result is the
significant. philosophically
classical logic spoke
of
Where
major
and
minor dif
premises
ference the All The
without
establishingany
the two, Peirce draws the
really important
a
between
distinction
our
between
premises reasoning
and
guiding principleof
some
argument.
to
is from
concrete
situation
are
another.
which propositions
sense
the
premises
follow from
premises
some
by
an
implicitor
connects
belief explicit
guiding principlewhich
When
in all of the such
cases a
the
premises
and
the conclusions.
conclusions
leading principleresults
true
in true
of
premises, we
have
logicaldeduction
orthodox
xxviii
INTRODUCTION
type.
clusion
If,however, such
true
we
con
only
in
certain
cases, then
have
probability.
This of true
to
reduction
of
probabilityto
a
the
relative
frequency suggested
uses
propositionsin
class of
was propositions,
Peirce
by
some
Venn's truths
Logic of Chance.
of
Peirce
it to
establish
philosophy.
He eliminates made
to
the
difficulties of
measure
the
old of
conceptualist
our
view, which
and
probabilitya
admit that
ignorance
of
our
yet had
almost
all fruitfulness
on
and practical of
scientific
reasoning depended
we
the theorems
probability. How
our
could
safely predictphenomena
by
measuring
ignorance?
reduced
a
Probabilitybeing
quency of
a
to
matter
or
class
in
larger class
becomes,
by
themselves.
singlepenny
or
time;
The in
to-morrow
it will
or
rain, or
any
it will
rain
means
at
all.
probabilityof "
the
as
other
fraction
we
nothing
singlecase.
It is
only because
a
feel the
singleevent
repeats
a
representative of
we
class,as
something
the
which
that itself,
of speak elliptically
probability of
single event.
Hence
follows
to
the
important corollarythat
this
or
the
probabilityof
be valid
that
ar
of the universe
would
only if universes
blackberries. plentiful as
useful
at
To
be
must
to
be
simpler
than
the it is
complex facts
often convenient
which
to
explain. Hence,
principleof certaintywhere
INTRODUCTION
xxix
the
facts justifyonly
such
cases
principleof
we
some
degree
in
of
proba
bility. In
any
on
must
be
cautious
accepting
also such
extreme
consequence
of these
and principles,
be
ex
refutations
based
on
treme
Finally I theory of
of Peirce's
To the
inference that
as
philosophy of
of
no
old argument
logicis
to
importance
people
not
learn to reason,
walk, by
habit that
"
by
human the
knowledge
up of
to
our
the
science
is but But
development logicalrules
inborn
first felt
instincts."
though
into and
are
implicitly, bringing
the process old of of
them
explicitconsciousness
thus makes situations.
an
helps
analysis
increases
our
range
to adaptability
extent
to
or
justifya general
habit and
distinction who
between
can
the freeman of
a
anticipate
nature
through knowledge
method of science
as
analysis of
the
of ing stability
beliefs with
doubt, in
contrast
("will
best
to
social
authority,is
of liberal
or
of
the
intro
theory
of of from
Hellenic
as civilization,
opposed
roots
Authority has
prevent
new
its and
in the
unorthodox authoritative
arising;and
men are own
in the
effort to far
more
defend
social views
apt
to
be
ruth
less than
in
defending
20
their
in
personal convictions.
181.
Studies
Logic, p.
xxx
INTRODUCTION
IV Not
only
but
the the
pragmatism
idealism of
are
and
the
radical empiricism of
and the
more
James,
movement
Royce
recent
of neo-realism
seem as
largelyindebted
the
same
to
Peirce.
strange that
of both
as
thinker idealism
should and
be
recent
realism,
of
con
another
sign
of his lack is
sistency.
seeming strangeness
the antithesis If
really due
realism
we
to
with
which
between
idealism
and
generallybeen put.
doctrine of
by
denote
the nominalistic
not
an
Berkeley,then
in
Peirce
a
is
clearly
and idealist;
his work
logic as him)
study
of types
of for
order
a
(in
which
Royce
But
"
followed
is fundamental
means
logical realism.
doctrine mental that
if idealism
or
the
are
old
not
Platonic
ideas," genera,
of
forms
merely
not
we existence,
need
wonder
that
both Peirce
idealist and is
realist.
use
Royce's indebtedness
of modern mathematical of the
to
principallyin the
as
material, such
of
the
recent
de
velopment
throw
as
concepts
infinityand
to continuity,
light on
of
relation
God
or
the
Universe. had
At
the end
of the
nineteenth the
century mathematics
almost
disappeared
Introduction Law
from
to
Philosophy),
a new
the
in
of
Mind and
opened
the
way
Royce
followed
his World
of ChristianityRoyce
to
indicated
indebtedness
Peirce
for his
doc-
INTRODUCTION
xxxi
trine of social
consciousness,the
of
mind
of may
the be
community,
that of
a
and
deal
men
the process
of
interpretation.It
the such
note
great
two
thoughts
as
these
is due
sources, it is well
to
the works
not
of Kant in his
and
but Schelling;
that
only
seminars
Royce
continuallyreferred
The
views.
movement
ground
for
the neo-realist
in
American
work
to which
philosophy was
of Russell and
largelyprepared by by
the utilization The
the mathematical
of mathematics
Royce based,
the
was as
led
by
logic of
on a
Mr.
Russell
is of the
he himself of Peirce
of Peano
pointed out,
Peano. of In
combination
work
this combination
notation
has
proved
can
greater technical
obtained
Mrs.
fluency,
Peirce's
results
also be
by
developed by Schroeder
and
Ladd-Frank-
branch
mental
of
psychology,
processes, the that laws
merely
To the
but of
with
objective relations.
represent "the
are
"
view
that
logic
necessities of
"
thought,"
propositions
answers:
true
because
we
can
not
help thinkingso," he
Exact
state
logicwill
of
say
is
things which
"The of
impotence
of
thought
alone
can one
bring about."21
of fact and
not
thinking.
the
It is not
are
premises
to
accepted by
conclusion
the also.
we
feel
an
impulse
p.
accept
the
Monist,
Vol.
7,
27.
Cf. Journal
of 58,
Speculative Philosophy,
pp.
Monthly,
Vol.
305-306.
xxxii
INTRODUCTION
The
true to
we
conclusion
would the
remain
true
one
if would
to
we
had remain
no
im false
pulse
accept it,and
could
not
false
though
Since almost
tendency
believe
in it." 22 has
one
the
days
of
modern
philosophy
that
been
must
by
the
assumption
one can
study
nature
knowing
before
find out
the
things known;
in other
the central
an
philosophicscience. complete
Nor did identification the influence
almost
of
the
the
nineteenth of
century
shake
in that proper of in
dictum of
philosophic mediocrity:
is man." the The
recent
The
study
mankind
renaissance of
logicalstudies,and
our own
remarkable
us
physics
Lockian
fair to remind
some
the
more
way
way
has of
gains to philosophy,the
is
ancient
philosophy
lose have
by
no
means
exhausted the
of
promise. play.
Man Those
to
cannot
his
interest
in
great cosmic
fruitful
who
and
approach physics
philosophy through
the
of mathematics
and
writings of
such of
an
S. Peirce
full of sugges
That
approach
also throw
no assurance
lighton
to
the those
problem
with
knowledge
and
needs
acquainted
Plato
Aristotle.
doctrine of
But ideal
I may
as
conclude
to
by referringto
Peirce's
opposed
to his treatment
of the
question
This
vol., p. 15.
for
a
sugges
tion
that
the
would
occur
under
circumstances
whjich do
most not
actually arise, is
question
This
of
fact, but
of
them."
arrangement
INTRODUCTION
xxxiii
how
it
is
that
in
spite
of
an
infinity
make
so
of
possible
hypotheses,
induc
mankind
has
managed
for
to
many
successful
tions.2*
And
the
bearing following
affairs
of
mathematical
studies
on
the
wisdom
of
life,
"
the
is
certainly
upon could
worth
serious
re
flection:
All
human
rest
probabilities.
be
If
man
were
immortal
[on
when
earth]
he
perfectly
he
had
sure
of
seeing
the
day
his
everything
He
would
in
which
trusted
should
betray
great
In
trust.
break
down,
as
at
last,
as
every
fortune,
as
every
dynasty,
have death."
every
civilization
does.
place
death of
of
this
we
The
recognition
the
that
the
the
individual
does
not
destroy
logical
the
meaning
ideal of
an
of
his
utterances,
that
this
meaning
us
involves
unlimited
community,
carries
into
the
heart
of
pure
religion.
24
Pp.
128-129,
cf.
Monist,
Vol.
7,
p.
206,
and
Logical
Studies,
pp.
175
ff.
CHANCE,
LOVE,
PROEM
AND
LOGIC
THE
RULES
OF
PHILOSOPHY1
DESCARTES
is of
the
father
"
of that
philosophy, principally
it
and
the
spirit guishes
be
Cartesianism the
distin may
it from
scholasticism
stated
as
displaced
"
compendiously
1.
follows:
must
never
It
teaches whereas
that
philosophy
had
begin
with
universal funda
doubt;
mentals.
2.
scholasticism
questioned
It
teaches
that
the
ultimate
test
of
certainty
is to
be
found had
in the rested
individual
on
consciousness;
of sages
whereas and of
scholasticism the
the
testimony
Catholic
Church.
3.
The
multiform
argumentation
of
of
the
middle
ages
is
replaced
upon
4. to
by
inference
depending
often
inconspicuous
Scholasticism
all
mysteries
But
of
faith, but
are
undertook
many but
explain
created
not
things. only
unless
as an
there
not
facts
renders them
which
Cartesianism
does
to
explain
"
absolutely inexplicable,
"
say
that
God
makes
so
is to some, have
be
regarded
or
explanation.
respects,
most
In
all in
of
these
modern without
philoso wishing
140.
phers
1
been,
the Journal
effect,Cartesians.
of Speculative
Now
From
Philosophy,
vol.
2,
p.
PROEM
to
return
to
scholasticism,
modern
it
seems
to to
me
that upon
modern
a
science
and
logic require
from this. with
us
stand
very
different
1.
platform
cannot
We
begin
complete doubt.
we
We have
must
begin
we
with
enter not
prejudices
the
which
actually
These
when
study
of
a
philosophy. maxim,
can
be
dispelledby
occur
for
they
are
it does initial
not
to
us
be
questioned.
skepticism will
and
no one
be
mere
and self-deception,
the Cartesian
doubt;
ever
who until he he
as
method
be
satisfied which
a
formally given
to
recovered It
all those
in form
up.
is,therefore,as
Pole
down would
preliminary
to
going
the
North
be
get
to
Constantinople by coming
A person
to
regularly
course
meridian.
may, doubt
studies,find
in that
reason
began by
a
be
lieving;but
reason
case
he
on
doubts
account
positive
maxim.
for
us
it,and
pretend
not
Let doubt
2.
not
to
doubt
in
philosophy
we
do
not
in The
our
hearts. formalism
to
same
appears
"
in the Cartesian I
am
criterion,
which
amounts
this:
were
Whatever
clearly convinced
I should
test
of, is true."
with But
If I
reallyconvinced,
should
have
done
reasoning
then
to make
and
require
no
of
certainty.
of truth has
singleindividuals
The result
absolute
is that
judges
is most reached
pernicious.
a
metaphysics
of the
that
physical
else.
a
sciences;
sciences
only they
men
can
agree
to
upon
nothing
when
In
in which
come
agreement,
theory
PROEM
been
broached
it is considered After
to
be
on
probation
the
until
agreement
is reached.
it is
reached,
there
cannot
question
is
no one
certainty
who
to
becomes
it. the
an
idle
one,
because
doubts
attain
We
individually
reasonably
we
hope
we can
ultimate
philosophy
which
pursue; of
only
seek
community
minds
philoso carefully |
to create
phers.
examine
Hence,
a
disciplined
refuse
of
to
and
candid
theory
the
mind
and
accept
of the
it,this ought
the
doubts
3. its ises
in
the
to to
author imitate
theory
himself.
Philosophy
so
ought
far be
as
successful
from
sciences
prem
in
methods,
which
to
can
proceed
to
only
tangible
and
to
subjected
and
careful
scrutiny,
its
trust
rather
to
the
multitude of
is
variety of
one.
arguments
should
than
not
the
a
any
no
Its
reasoning
its
form
stronger
may be
ever
than
so
weakest
link,
but
cable
are
fibers
numerous
slender, provided
connected.
they
4.
sufficiently
unidealistic
and
intimately
supposes in
some
Every
philosophy
absolutely
something
mediation. known of
an
inexplicable, resulting
Now that from
unanalyzable
mediation is thus
ultimate;
itself
not
short,
of
susceptible
can
anything
from
inexplicable,
But the the
only be
by
reasoning
from
signs.
is that
only
justification explains
is not
to
inference To suppose
signs
fact
conclusion
the
fact.
the
absolutely inexplicable,
is
never
explain
it, and
hence
this
supposition
allowable.
PART
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
(ILLUSTRATIONS
SCIENCE)
OF
THE
LOGIC
OF
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
FIRST
PAPER
THE
FIXATION
OF
BELIEF1
FEW ceives
care
to
study
logic, because
in the
everybody
art
con
to
be
proficient enough
that and this does
of
reasoning
to
already.
x' one's
own
I observe
satisfaction
not
is limited
to
ratiocination,
extend
that
of
other We
men.
come
to
the
last
as a
full
of
possession
our
of
our
power
of
drawing
so
inferences
a
the
all
faculties, for
difficult
art.
it is not The
a
much of
natural
gift
long
make
and
a
history
book.
its
practice
would
grand
The
medieval earliest
easy.
schoolman,
of So
a
following the
studies after understood was, but
on
made
as
logic the
being
very
boy's
was as
it
they
to
Its
fundamental
rests
principle, according
on
them,
reason;
all
knowledge
either
reason
authority depends
or
whatever
is deduced
by
ultimately
as soon
premise
a
derived
was
from in
authority.
the
Accordingly,
as
boy
perfect
of
syllogistic procedure,
to
his
intellectual
kit
tools
was
held
be
complete.
Science
Popular
Monthly,
November,
7
1877.
CHANCE To
AND
LOGIC
Roger Bacon,
thirteenth
that remarkable
was
mind
a
who
of the
century
almost
scientific man,
an
schoolmen's
ob
any
stacle to truth.
that
experience alone
to us
seems
teaches
thing
"
a a
easy
to
understand,
handed also
because
down seemed unfolded he
to
from
generations; which
to
him
not
perfectlyclear,because
themselves.
its difficultieshad of
yet
Of
all kinds
experience,the best,
teaches could many
never
thought, was
interior
which illumination,
the external
senses
thingsabout
such discover, Four
Nature
as
which
of bread.
centuries
of his
"
celebrated
gave
Bacon, in the
first book of
Novum
Organum,"
which
must
experienceas something
and reexamination.
to earlier
be open
verifica Bacon's
tion
Lord
conception is
in
awe
reader
who
is not the
of his
grandiloquence
chieflystruck
by
in
adequacy only
to
of his view
some
of scientific procedure.
crude
That
we
have
make
experiments, to draw
blank
up
briefs
these
forms, to
go
through
by rule, checking
the
off
down setting
and alternatives,
in what
2
a an
few
years
"
physical
He
wrote
science would
on
be finished up
a
idea!
science The
like
Lord
Chancellor," indeed.
Galileo and
modern
like those
to
of their
a
brethren.
Kepler
undertook
draw
curve
[This
is
the substantially
dictum
of
I
Harvey 299].
to
John
Aubrey.
See
THE
FIXATION
OF
BELIEF
9 to
through
science
the
places
in
of
Mars;3
and
his minds
to
greatest service
that this
was
was
impressingon
if
men's
the
thing to
that
be
done
not
they wished
to content
improve astronomy;
with
they
were
themselves
inquiring
another
whether
one
system of epicycleswas
were
better than
to sit down
by the figuresand
He
find out
accomplished
this
by his
incomparable
most
courage,
inconceivable
(to us),
irrational
hy
after trying twenty-two pothesisto another,until, he fell, by the orbit which modern
In the
a mere
of these, the of
of his
invention, upon
the weapons
mind
furnished
with
at
logicwould
same
tried almost
work
the outset.4
way,
of science
great enough to
affords
some
be
remembered
for
few
generations
of exemplification
of the
reasoning
step in
time
when
a
written; and
in
chief when of
lesson
logic.
up
It
was
Lavoisier
contemporaries took
chemist's
et not
the
study
"
Chemistry.
The
old
maxim
had
been,
labora, ora,
and pray,
not
to
read
dream would
that have
a
some
long
and
complicated
it into
chemical
process
certain
to put effect,
practice with
dream
failure to
another
a
that with
to end to
modification
it would
have
as
and result,
the by publishing
his mind
last dream
fact:
to
was
carry
into his
and laboratory,
of
of his alembics
and
cucurbits
instruments
thought,
3 4
Not
quite
so, but
as
nearly so
as
can
be
told
in
few of
words.
[This modern
however, logic,
Kepler'swork.]
io
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
giving a
was
new
conception
with
of
reasoning
open,
as
something
which real
to be
done
one's eyes
and
by manipulating
things instead
The
of words
fancies.
Darwinian Mr.
controversy
Darwin The
question
statistical
of
logic.
to
proposed
same
apply
has
the
method
biology.
thing
been
done of
in
widely Though
molecule
the well
branch say
of
science, the
the movement
theory
of any
gases.
what be
on
particular
would
certain
hypothesis regarding
and Max of
constitution
were
of this class of
bodies, Clausius
the
application of
in the
doctrine and
long
run
such
such
proportion of
the
would,
under
given
circum
there
would
place,every
and
second, such
from these
number
were
of colli able
to to
sions,etc.;
deduce
propositionsthey
gases,
certain
properties of
their heat-relations.
to
unable
say
what
the
operation of
case
natural
selection in the
in every
individual
that
long
run
they
or
will
adapt
their
are
circumstances. due
to
Whether
not
existinganimal
forms
such
ac
tion,or subject
what of
a
to
take, forms
of fact
the and
questions
questions of logicare
curiouslyinterlaced.
ii
The
objectof reasoning is
we
to find
out, from
the considera
we
tion of what
else which
do
THE
FIXATION
OF
BELIEF
not
as
know.
to
Consequently, reasoning
a
is
good
if it be
such
not
give
true
conclusion the
from
true
premises, and
one
otherwise.
fact and the
not
Thus,
of
of
thinking.
being
ar3
conclusion, the
that
facts
is.
in
is
is not
are
the
least
the
question
we
whether,
feel that
an we
premises
accept
impulse
do
the
It is true
generallyreason
true
correctlyby
would
But
true
that
if
we
Js
an no
conclusion
remain
one
had
to
accept it;and
could
not
the false
would
to
remain
false,though
in it.
resist the
tendency
believe
We
are
are,
in doubtless,
the
main of us,
logicalanimals, but
for
we
not
perfectlyso. sanguine
to
Most and
example,
are
natur
ally more
We
seem
hopeful
than
logic would
absence
justify.
of any the
be
so we
constituted
are
that and
in the
happy
that so self-satisfied;
counteract
our
experience is continuallyto
a
hopes
this
aspirations. Yet
does
not
lifetime of the
our
applicationof
corrective tion.
usually eradicate
is unchecked is
Where
our
hope
by
any
is
likelythat gard
mal action
to
can
optimism
extravagant.
matters practical
is the most
useful
quality an
from it is his
ani the
possess,
and
of natural of
more
but selection;
to
prob
mind
ably
advantage
the
have
pleasing and
truth; and
thus,upon
12
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
which
determines
rather than
inference
another, is
or
habit
The
of
mind,
whether
or
it be constitutional
acquired.
true
habit is good
from valid
con
otherwise,according as premises
or
it
an
produces
inference the truth
as
conclusions
true
or
not; and
reference
is
or
regarded
of falsity
as
not, without
to
its
clusion
mines
or or
the
habit
which in
deter
to
produce
true
conclusions
which
a
general
this
not.
The
particularhabit
may the
of mind in
governs
that inference
be formulated
propositionwhose
which
a
truth habit
depends
on
the
determines; and
formula
for
is called
guiding
we
principleof inference.
serve
Suppose,
ob
rest
that
rotating disk
the with what
a
of copper
to
when
poles of
every
magnet, and
of copper.
one
infer
disk of
The
guid
is
to
ing principleis,that
true
is true
piece of
copper
of another.
Such
guiding principlewith
with
regard
copper
would
"
be much
safer than
regard
to many
other
substances
A
book
written
to
signalizeall
the
most
im
portant of these
guidingprinciplesof reasoning.
must
It would
a
probably be,
whose
we
confess, of wholly
to
no
service
to
person
thought
is directed
practicalsubjects,and
beaten such
once man
whose
activitymoves
which
along thoroughly
themselves he has
to
paths.
a
The
are
problems
matters
present
which
mind for
of routine
in
learned let
a are
all to into
handle
an
learninghis
or field,
business. where
But
venture
not
unfamiliar
his results
continually
THE
FIXATION
OF
BELIEF
13
checked masculine
waste
by experience,and
that
the most
and
to
a
orientation
no nearer
bring him
his
goal, or
carry
him
no
entirelyastray.
one on
He
is like
ship on
the
the open
sea, with
board
a
who
case
understands
some
in such
general
be
sure
study
to be
found
The
subject could
hardly
be
treated,however, without
any fact may
serve
as a a
it
so
happens
one
that class
there
are
exists
such facts,
that in
as
all those
essential absolutely
are
in the other
objects of
are
research.
This
division is between
those
which
a
cer
tain
follows
certain
premises,
A
and
those
which
not
implied in
a
question.
are
moment's
thought
when
that
variety of facts
already assumed
logicalquestion
are
doubt is
and
that of
passage
the other
same,
possible,
that
are
object
thought remaining
some
the
and
this alike
transition
is
subject to
As
these have
are
rules which
we
all minds
must
bound before
it cannot
by.
we
can
facts which
already know
any
be supposed to be any
their truth that very
or
longer of
much
interest
to
inquire into
is easy
to
falsity. On
rules of of
the
other
hand,
it
believe the
those
idea
reasoning
process
are
which the
are ones
deduced
from
the
14
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
which
are
the most
to these true
so
long
as
it
lead
to
false conclu
premises.
be
In
what
may
deduced
turns
from
out
assumptions
be
involved
in the be
logicalquestion
greater than
might
ex
supposed, and
this for
reasons
which
one
The
only
which
are
reallyproducts
to
logical
without reflections,
our
ordinary thoughts,
This
frequently
for such
of the
great confusion.
is the A
case,
example,
is
never
with
an or
conception of quality.
of observation. We
can
quality as
see
object
green,
that and
thing
is blue
being blue
we
the
not
things which
The
see;
they
products
or
of
logical thought
reflections.
as
truth
is, that
common-sense,
it first emerges
above
with
narrowly practical,
which the,
can
is
deeply
imbued
that bad is
epithetmetaphysical
clear it up
commonly
course
nothing
but
severe
of
in
We
when
generally know
we
when
we a
wish
to
ask
question and
is
a
wish
to
pronounce the
judgment,
of
dis of
similaritybetween
sensation
doubting
that
believing.
But There this is not is
a
all which
doubt distinguishes
Our
from
belief.
our
practicaldifference. shape
our
beliefs guide
de
sires and
actions.
The
Assassins, or
followers
THE
FIXATION1
OF
BELIEF
to rush
15
Man
of the
Mountain, used
into death
at
command,
insure
not
because
they believed
that
obedience
doubted
would
felicity.Had everlasting
have
to
sure
they
they this,
every
would
acted its
as
they
did. The
So it is with
according belief,
more or
degree.
feelingof
be
less
of there
being estab
our
in
our
nature
never
some
will determine
Doubt
must
we
has
a
effect. Doubt
overlook
third
point of difference.
from which of
we
uneasy
and
dissatisfied state
and pass
struggle
the wish
to free
ourselves
a
while belief;
we
latter is
to
calm
to
we
and
state satisfactory to
a
which
do
not
avoid, or
change
belief
in
On
the contrary,
not clingtenaciously,
we
believing,
but to
believingjust what
and
do
belief have
us,
at
very
different
us
ones. a
make
we
us
act
but puts
certain
that
in
way,
the occasion
arises.
us
Doubt
stimulates
us
to action
a
until
nerve ana
of the irritation of
for the
in logue of belief,
are
system,
"
we
must
look to what
that habit
a
called
nervous
associations
for
example, to
of the
nerves
in consequence
of which
the smell of
peach
will make
the mouth
water.
am
not
by
the
interference of other
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
IV
The
causes
struggleto
attain
state
of belief. be admitted
this
struggleinquiry,though
sometimes
not
a
it must
this
is
very
apt
designation.
The the that irritation of doubt attain should is the
only
It is
as
immediate
motive for
for
us our
struggle to
our so us
belief. be
certainly best
may
beliefs
as
such
truly guide
actions
to
satisfyour
desires;and
does
not
make
so
rejectany
as
belief which
to have
been
do
so
formed
to
insure
this result.
But that
only
With
by creating a
doubt
in the
place of
the
Hence, \ the
We
we
settlement
opinion. \
and that But for
as
that
this
an
is not
enough
but
a
for
merely
to
opinion,
it
true
opinion.
the
test,and
proves
we are
groundless;
firm
belief is reached
or
true.
And
it is clear that
can
nothing
out
sphere
which
of
our
knowl affect
most
we
edge
the that
be
can
our
does
not
mind
can
be
motive
for
a we
The
be maintained
to
is,that
But
we
belief that
one
shall think
be true.
of
our
be
so.
liefs to be true,
That
and, indeed, it
of
is
mere
tautology to
the sole end away,
say
the settlement
opinion is
of
inquiry
at once,
is
very
important proposition.
vague and be
erroneous
It sweeps
various
conceptions of proof.
here.
few
of these may
noticed
THE
FIXATION
OF
BELIEF
17
1.
Some
it
on was
imagined
to
that
to
start
or
an
in it
quiry
down
our
utter
o^ question
us
set
paper, with
a
and
even
recommended But
to
begin
mere
studies of
questioning everything!
the
the
putting
not must
proposition into
the mind
to
interrogativeform
belief.
does There
stimulate be
a
any
struggleafter
and without
real and
livingdoubt,
cussion
2.
is idle.
a
9^
common
It is
on some
very
idea and
to
that
demonstration
must
rest
ultimate
absolutely indubitable
one
proposi principles
tions. of
a
These, according
school,are
to
first
another, are
have
first sensa
that has
com
tions.
inquiry,to
pletely satisfactoryresult
to
start
called
demonstration,
from
only
with If the be
more
all actual
at
doubt.
cannot
not
in fact doubted
all, they
than satisfactory
seem
they
are. a
3. Some
people
is
to
love to argue
of it.
ceases,
point
further action
after
all
the world
can
fullyconvinced
When
to
an
But
no
advance
on
be
made.
doubt
mental
the be
subject comes
without
a
end; and,
if it did go
on, it would
purpose.
of
opinion is
of
a
the sole
object of inquiry,
should
to
a we
habit,why
answer
not
question,
to
our
may
fancy, and
on
it constantly reiterating
may
selves,dwelling
all which
conduce
to
that
belief,
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
and
learning to
which is
turn
with
contempt
it? many certain
and
hatred
from
and
any
thing
method
might disturb
This
men.
simple
direct
once
reallypursued by
not
to read
a
I remember lest it I
newspaper
"
might
en
opinion upon
free-trade.
Lest
might be
the form
trapped by
misstatements,"was
my You friend
of
expression.
student of
not,"
said, "a
special
political economy. by
fallacious read admit wish
be deceived
arguments
this paper, that
to
subject.
to
You in
if you you do
believe
But
free-trade
doc true."
you
not
believe
to be
what
known
deliberately adopted.
an
Still oftener,the
of
men
of
undecided of
state
mind, exaggerated
dread
doubt,
makes take.
cling spasmodically
man
to
views
holds
to
they already
The
feels
that, if
he
only
wavering,
denied
that
it will be
a
entirelysatisfactory. Nor
faith
it be peace if
yieldsgreat
of mind.
a man
It may,
rise to
to
inconveniences,as
should burn
continue resolutely
or
not
him,
his But
that
he
would
be eternallydamned
than
ingesta
then the
otherwise
man
through
stomachwill not
who
are
adopts
this method
will say,
I hold
steadfastlyto
And he
truth and
cases
the
truth
very
always
be
wholesome." the
any
in many derives
it may his
well
that
pleasure
from
calm
its
faith
overbalances
tive character.
inconveniences
resultingfrom
true
decep
Thus, if it be
that
death
is annihila-
THE
FIXATION
OF
BELIEF
19
tion,then the
to straight
man
who
believes
that
he
will
certainlygo
fulfilled
heaven
when
he dies,provided he have
in this has life, the
to
we a
cheap pleasure
will not
be
followed
seems
by
least disappointment.
similar in
consideration
have
weight
with
many it
persons
"
topics,for religious
not
frequently hear
said,
be
Oh,
I could
believe When
so-and-so, because
an
I should
wretched
sand
course. as
if I did."
ostrich
buries
in the
likelytakes
then
happiest
there
danger,
and
calmly
says
is
no
danger; and,
should
if it feels
perfectly sure
A
man
there may go
is none,
why
to see? out
through
cause
of view if he
all that
might
"
change
in his
as
opinions,and
he
see
only
succeeds
basing
his
method,
"
does,
what
on can
two
fundamental be said
psychological
so.
laws
I do
not
an
It would
be
is
egotistical impertinence
that
object that
to
his
procedure
that
for irrational, of
only
is not
amounts
ours.
saying
not
his method
to
belief settling
to
He
does will
himself
be
rational,and
weak and
indeed,
reason.
often
scorn as
of man's he
illusive
So let
think this
pleases.
of which fixingbelief, be may hold it. be its called
method of
method
tenacity,will
social
unable
is
to
ground
man
practice. adopts
and
The
impulse
against
think in
as some
The
men
from differently
saner
him,
that
it will be apt to
to him
moment
their
opinions are
his
quite as
in
or
good
and
this
will shake
confidence
his
belief.
conception,
be
that another
man's
thought
sentiment
equivalent
20
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
to
one's own,
is
new distinctly
step, and
too
highly important
man
one.
It arises
from
an
impulse
of
strong in
to
be
suppressed,without danger
Unless
fluence how
to
we
destroyingthe
shall the
human
species.
make
ourselves
hermits, we
that
necessarilyin
becomes in the
each
fix
other's
opinions; so
in the
problem
not belief,
individual
merely,
but
community.
Let
of that
of the
individual.
for its of the
institution
correct
which
shall have
object to keep
before
the attention
to to
people, to reiterate
to the young;
perpetually,and
same
teach pre
or
them
vent
having
the
time
power
contrary
Let
doctrines
all
from
expressed.
be removed
possible causes
change
Let them
of
mind
from
men's
apprehensions.
learn Let of
some
be kept
to
ignorant,lest they
otherwise
that than may
should do.
reason
think
they
their and
men
so passions be enlisted,
they
and
opinions rejectthe
the
with
hatred
horror.
let all
estab
turn
lished belief be
out
silence. men,
people
and
tar-and-feather
the
manner are
let
be inquisitions persons,
made
into when be
thinking
of
suspected
and,
them
they
let beliefs,
subjected to
could
When
com
plete agreement
massacre
not
be in
reached, a general
a
of all who
a
have
thought
of this be
no man
certain
way
has in
a
proved
country.
very If the
effective
power up,
can
settlingopinion wanting,
of the let
a
to
to
do
list of
opinions be
drawn
which
least inde
re-
pendence of thought
assent, and
THE
FIXATION
OF
BELIEF order
to
ai
quired to accept
them of the
as
all these
in propositions,
segregate
world. method
means
This
has, from
of
the earliest
correct
times, been
one
of
the chief
upholding
of
preserving their
catholic
Rome,
days
Pompilius
of Pius
Nonus.
This there
one
"
is the most is
a
perfectexample
"
in
priesthood
has
and been
no more a
this method
use
Wherever
of
to
a
there is aristocracy, or of
on men
guild,or depend
or
association
class
whose
interests
supposed
depend
some
traces
of this natural
accompany
product
of social when of
feeling. Cruelties
it is the Nor
always
carried kind in
this
system; and
atrocities rational
consistently
horrible this
feel
most
man. a
should
not
occasion
for surprise,
officer of
the
society does
of that
interests his
own
society for
he
might
private interests.
should fellowship
It is
and
thus produce
In called allow the
most
ruthless of
power.
judging
this method of
which fixingbelief,
must
may
be
the method
authority,we
mental
Its and
in the
first
place,
moral is
superiority to proportionally
worked the which
tenacity.
success
greater; and
most
over mere
and
over
again
majestic results.
caused
to
structures
"
of stone for
it has
be
put together
in
Siam,
example,
22
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
in
Egypt, and
more
in than the
as
Europe
rivaled
"
have
many
of them
sublimity
of Nature.
hardly
by
And, except
time
so
geologicalepochs,
those If which
we are
periods of
of these
we closely,
vast
measured the
by
matter
organized
faiths.
scrutinize
not
has the
been
one
of their creeds
so
which
slow in of this.
remained
to
always
same;
one
be
imperceptibleduring
belief remains is
that
mass
dividual
sensiblyfixed.
perhaps
to
no
For
the
better
method
than
highest impulse
be
intellectual
slaves,then
institution
can
to
regulate opinions
ones can
every
subject. Only
on
important
minds
must
be
attended the
no
to, and
of
the
rest
be
left to will
a
action
source
natural
causes. so
imperfection
are
be
of weakness that
one as
long
in such
state
"
opinion they
does
not
influence
two
some
another
is, so
in the
long
most
are
cannot
put
and
two
together.
will
men
priest-riddenstates
raised above that
found
a
who wider
condition.
see
possess other
sort
feeling;they
have held
in
countries and
from
up
to
ages
to
different been it
doctrines
those
they they
themselves
have
brought
is the
believe; and
of
cannot
mere
accident of their
their been
having
taught
with the
as
they
have, and
and
as
having
surrounded caused
manners
associations
they have,
not
that has
them
to believe
can
they
do
and
far
differently.And
there is
no
their candor
reason
not
to
rate
their
THE
FIXATION
OF
BELIEF
23
own
views other
at
higher value
this
than
those
of
to
other
nations in their
and
centuries; and
gives rise
doubts
minds.
They
must
will further
in their
to
or
perceive
minds with
that
such
doubts
to
as
these belief of
exist
seems
reference
every
which
be
determined
who
to
a
by
the
caprice either
themselves The
of those
willful adherence
of it upon
new
method
settling opinions
an
must
adopted,
only produce
impulse
is which
to
but believe, is to
what
propositionit
of natural influence
be believed.
action their
under
re
garding matters
in
in different natural
beliefs
harmony by
with
causes.
method
resembles
that
which The
conceptions
most
of
have
been
brought
be
to
maturity.
in the
sort
not
perfect example
of it is to
found of this
have in any
usually rested
upon
observed
great degree.
fundamental This agrees inclined
reason
They
have
been
because
to
their
propositionsseemed
apt expression; it does
agreeable
not
we mean
reason." which
is
an
that
with
to
experience,but
that
which
find it
ourselves
believe.
finds
agreeableto
from
one
another
proportional to
harmonious their main
the
different
produce
led
to
chords.
Many
philosophers have
considerations like
been
by
least
this; but
this
is the
24
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
developed
another
man
form
which
the method
takes, for
might
are
find
celestial
spheres
proportionalto
of the But
inscribed
and
cumscribed
spheres
his
reason. on
regular solids,more
of
agreeableto
lead
men
opinionswill
more
soon
to
rest
far
universal
man
nature. acts
Take,
"
for that
the the
doctrine
that
only acting
in
selfishly
way
consideration
that
in
one
will afford
rests
on as
more
acting
it has
another.
a
This
had
wide This
acceptance
method
is
being
more
only reasonable
theory. respectable
far
intellectual and
reason
from
the
we
point of
have
view
of
than
which
noticed. of
But
most
manifest.
It makes of
a
the
development
more or
taste; but
matter
never
less
of
come
fashion, and
to
accordingly,meta
but
physicians have
the
a
any
fixed agreement,
and forward
pendulum
material
has and
swung
a more
backward
more
earliest times
to
the
a
latest.
from
are
this,which driven, in
have
been
called the
priorimethod,
a
Bacon's
into this
phrase,
a
to
true
induction.
as
We
examined
to
priorimethod opinions
But
the from
something
their
which and
promised
deliver
our
accidental
it is
a
capricious
which
element. eliminates
development, while
effect of
of others. essential
not
some
process
casual
circumstances, only
not
magnifies that
differ in
a
This way
very may
from
authority.
influence
The my
government
have
lifted its
fingerto
THE
FIXATION
OF
BELIEF
a$
convictions;I choose,
and that
come we
may
have
been
left
outwardly quite
and may
free to
will
say, my
between
conscience
monogamy
polygamy,
concluded
when I
appealingto
the latter
to see
only, I
have
practice is
in itself licentious.
But
that
a
tianityamong
has
people
of of
as
high
culture
as
the Hindoos
our
been
conviction I cannot
the
immorality
of
way govern
of
treatingwomen,
ments
do
not
sentiments interfere,
development Now,
that
by accidental
whom I must
causes.
some
suppose
reader
is to be
they
see
that any
be
circumstance
not
extraneous
the
facts,will
from
moment
merely
admit
in
doubtful,but
to
will
experience a real
it,so
that
it
ceases
be
belief. is necessary
satisfyour
should
doubts, therefore,it
that
by
which
some
our
beliefs may
be caused
"
by
our
external
no
permanency
thinking has
such that the
a
effect.
in
a a
Some
mystics imagine
from inspiration method of
that
on
they high.
have But
method
private
of the truth
as
is
only
form of
tenacity,in
is not
which
conception
Our sense,
something public
manency would
yet developed.
our
External perif it
was some re
"^
not
in be external,
one
individual.
It must
man.
be
thing though
which these
or affects,
might affect,every
are
And,
as are
affections
necessarilyas
the method
man
various be
individual
the ultimate
conditions,yet
conclusion of
must
such the
that
same.
every
shall
be
26
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
Such
is the method in
more
of science. familiar
Its fundamental
hypothesis,
are
restated
real
our ac are
characters
entirelyindependent
realities affect
our our
of
them;
whose
senses
to
sensations
different
relations laws of
to
the
objects,yet, by taking
can
advantage
of
the
perception,we
and any
ascertain if he have
by
suf
to
reasoning how
ficient the
one
thingsreallyare,
reason
man,
experience and
true
enough
new
about
it,will be led
conclusion. may
The
conception here
how I know the
is that
are
of
reality. It
be asked
any
realities. of
If this
hypothesis is
method of The
as
sole support
not
i.
my used
method
to
inquiry,my
my
support
hypothesis.
be
cannot investigation
regarded
not
proving
to
a
there
real
things,it
but the
at
lead
contrary conclu
on
sion;
based
method
ever
the
conception
No its doubts
which
it is
remain
in
harmony.
from
of the
method,
case
necessarilyarise therefore,
with method all the others. of
2.
as practice,
is the
to
The is
a
feelingwhich
dissatisfaction
a
gives rise
at two
any
fixingbelief
here
repugnant
that
con are
propositions. But
there is form.
some one
already is
which
a
vague
concession
thing to
propositionshould
that
a one source
Nobody,
if he
can therefore,
really doubt
would
not
there
realities, or,
satisfaction.
mind
me
did, doubt
be
of dis every
cause
The So
it.
is hypothesis,therefore,
which
not
admits.
to
that
3.
the social
uses
impulse
the
ceases
does
doubt
a
Everybody things,and
scientific method
to
use
about
great many
not
only
it.
it when the
he does
know
how
to
apply
4.
Experience of
THE
FIXATION
OF
BELIEF
27
on
method
has
not
led
me
to
doubt
it,but,
the contrary,
the most
triumphs explana
tion of my it supposes;
doubting the
not
method
any
or
which hypothesis
and
having
I could
doubt,
nor
believingthat
would be the
anybody
merest
else whom
influence
more
has, it
about the it.
babble
with it.
for
a
me
to
say
If there
be
him
anybody
consider To
living doubt
upon
subject, let
describe
the
method
of scientific At
is the investigation
object of
to
present I have
between
only
room
notice
points
of
contrast
it and
other
of
fixingbelief. only
of
a one
is the
of the
four
a
methods
way.
out
which If I all
presents
distinction of
right and
shut
to
wrong
adopt
the
method whatever
and tenacity
myself
from
influences,
accord
I think
necessary So
doing this
the method
is necessary of
ing
state
to
that may
method.
with
try
to
put down
heresy by
seems
means
scientific point of
view,
but
very
ill-calculated
test
on
complish
what
its purposes;
the
only
that
is
the state
thinks,so
the
a
that
it cannot
wrongly.
So with
as one
priorimethod.
to think.
essence
of
it is to think will be
sure
is inclined
metaphysicians
be
The of inclined
to
to
do
that, however
to
they
judge
system
each
other
be
perversely wrong.
natural
to
Hegelian thought
as
recognizes every
tendency
be
a
logical, although
tendencies. succession
it is certain thinks
abolished
by
counter-
Hegel
of these
there is
regular system
consequence of
in the
tendencies, in
which,
3S
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
after
one drifting
way
and And
for that
right.
at
rightideas
last;Hegel's system
of that
of Nature
one
day;
and
may
out
on
that will
scientific
a
of doubt
receive presently
prioridemonstration
with
start
metaphysicians.
is different.
to
But
I may
observed
proceed doing
to the
unknown;
not
in
so
may
test
an
be
such
would investigation
am
The is not
af
whether
truly following
my
immediate
appeal
to
pur
but, on
method.
the
application
well
as
Hence
reasoning as
foundation
practicalside
to
of
logic.
that the first three whatever has
some
It is not
be
supposed
no
methods
over
of the
advantage
On
own.
peculiar
is distin
nature
priori method
guished
for
its comfortable
to
conclusions.
It is the
we are
adopt
whatever
belief
inclined to,
which
our we
certain
flatteries to one's
we are
vanities from of
all believe
pleas
ing
dream
facts. of
The
authority will
who will
not
always
govern
mass
mankind;
those
wield
never
forms that
some
of
organized force
in the state
to
be
un-
suppressed in
trammeled
libertyof speech
forms of
is to be
from
the grosser
constraint,then
uni-
THE
FIXATION
OF
BELIEF
29 terrorism its
to
by
moral
the
thorough
the
approval. Following
of peace. others ferent wherever
a
authority is
are
path
Certain
non-conformities
are
permitted; certain
These
are
(considered unsafe)
in different you
are
forbidden.
and in
dif
countries
different ages;
you
but,
let it be known
you may
that
seriouslyhold
of
tabooed
and belief,
a
be perfectly sure
more
being
than
treated
with you
cruelty no
like
a
refined
hunting
wolf.
Thus,
have
never
the
greatest intellectual
benefactors now, of
to
of
mankind
dared,
and thus
dare
a
not
utter
the whole
shade
is cast
propositionwhich
is considered
essential to the
the
larlyenough,
out; but
distressed
he has
a man
persecution does
torments
all
come
from
with
most
himself
and
is oftentimes
at
been
peaceful and
to
sympathetic temptation to
all I admire
will,therefore,find
his method
it hard
resist the
most
submit the
opinions to authority.
of Men
But
of
tenacity for
who pursue
its it be
not
and strength,simplicity,
are comes
directness.
distinguishedfor
very time easy in with
of character,which
rule.
mental
up
They
do
waste
trying to
their minds
to what
they
whatever the
alterna whatever is
one
first, they
without
an
hold
to
it to
end,
This
happens,
the
instant's
irresolution.
of
generally accompany
to envy
brilliant,
the
man
unlastingsuccess.
impossiblenot
who
30
can
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
reason,
although
we
know
how
it must
turn
out
at
the
advantages which
over
the
other
methods
man
of
scientific investigation.A
and then he should
of
them;
his
no so.
wishes
opinions to why
coincide
there is
should do
reason
the results
these
three methods
To
prerogativeof
tions
more
the method
to
of science. his
he
has
make
choice
"
choice
which
than
is
one
of the
rulingdecisions
to adhere.
to
of his The
on
which
once some
made times
a
he is bound
cause a man see
force of habit
old
no case
hold
to
is in
re
condition upon
to
that
state
they have
of
basis.
overcome
flection
the
the
these
habits,and
sometimes liefs
are
he
ought
to allow
People
that
from
idea
be
on
which
help feelingrest
an
nothing.
different what
persons
own.
suppose
Let
analogous though
ask
their
to
a
them
themselves
who should
they
to
would
reformed
Mussulman
in
hesitate of
give up
or
regard
to
the
sexes; from
Catholic
who say
still
these
shrink persons
the
to
new
Bible. consider
they
matter
not
that
ought
the
fully,and ought
to
clearly
it that in
then
embrace
entirety? But,
is
more
all,let
any
it be
considered
wholesome
is belief, particular
tegrityof belief;and
that to avoid
looking into
the support
THE
FIXATION
OF
BELIEF
31
out
of
any
as
belief immoral
that from
us
from
as
fear
that
it may
turn
rotten
is who
quite
it is
disadvantageous.
a
The
person which
confesses
there
is such
thing
as
truth,
is dis
on
tinguished
it will then and carry
falsehood
to
if acted
the
point
of in
aim
at
and
not
not
astray,
the
and truth
though
seeks
to
this,
a
dares
state
know
it,is
methods does
sorry do have
of
mind, indeed.
merits:
as a
Yes,
the
their
"
clear
cost
something
costs
us
just
any
we
virtue,
should
all that it to
we
cherish,
dear.
But,
of
a
desire
be otherwise. be
from loved
The
genius
as
man's
logical
whom
method he has
should chosen
on
and
reverenced world.
he may her he the knows He
his
bride,
not
all the
need honor
more.
condemn
the
and the in and
to
others;
in
one
the
so
contrary,
them But
deeply,
she
is
doing
that
he has
only honors
he
chosen,
And
and
that
he
was
right
work
making
that
choice.
it, he
there
and and
will
are
will not
that many
blows
hard
to
there
may the
as
give, and
of her
strive to be the
blaze of
worthy
knight
champion
draws his
from and
whose
splendors
he
inspiration
his
courage.
ffkrn
SECOND
PAPER
HOW
TO
MAKE
OUR
IDEAS
CLEAR1
WHOEVER
common
has
looked
into
modern remember
treatise
the
on
logic
of
the
sort, will
clear
and
now
doubtless obscure
two
distinctions
between
tinct
and
conceptions, They
and have
between lain
in
dis the
un
confused
for
are
conceptions.
two
books
nigh
centuries, unimproved
reckoned
and
as
modified, and
the
A gems of
generally
doctrine.
as
by logicians
among
their
clear
it will
no
idea
is defined
one
which
is
so
apprehended with,
and of
so
that that
be
recognized wherever
will be
to
it is met it.^ If
other
mistaken
for
it fails
this
clearness,
This
it is said
a
be
is rather
neat
philosophical terminology;
were
yet, since
they
defining, I
a
wish
the
logicians
Never
stances to to
a
their
definition
an
little
under
come
more
plain.
circum how
rec
recognize
another would
idea,
and it
no
mistake
for
it, let
in such
ondite
form
it may,
indeed
as
imply
prodigious
with such in this
an ac
force world.
and
clearness On
the with lost
of intellect
is seldom
to
met
hand,
as
merely
have in
have
quaintance
and
to
to
become
familiar it in
with
it,
have
hesitancy
recognizing
1878.
ordinary
Popular
Science
Monthly,
January,
32
HOW
TO
MAKE
OUR
IDEAS
CLEAR
33
cases,
hardly
seems
to
deserve
the
name
of clearness
to
a
of
apprehension, since
of mastery feeling
only
amounts
subjective
I take
be
mistaken. entirely
of
"
it,however, they
mean
that
when
more
logiciansspeak
such
a
clearness,"
an
nothing
than the
with familiarity
but
a
quality as
small
merit,
call
be supplemented by another,which
they
distinctness. A which
contents
as
one
which
contains
nothing
the
con
clear.
idea
This
is technical
language; by
whatever is
can
logiciansunderstand
So that
an
is
tained
in its definition.
to
idea
we
hended, according
definition of
them,
when
terms.
precise
it,in abstract
Here
professional
troubled
not
I would
to say,
not
have
were
with
what
they
of
have
if it
such
striking example
ages
how
they
have
been
slumbering
through
the
of intellectual of
enginery
modern
to
thought,
dreaming
of
the
improvement
that
of
logic.
use
It is easy
show
that
the
doctrine
familiar
and
abstract
has its
ex
distinctness
make
the perfection of
in
apprehension,
have
only
true
place
it is
philosophieswhich
time
to
long
been
tinct;and ing
and
to
a
now
formulate
of
our
the method
of attain-,
as we see
more
perfect clearness
in the thinkers
set
was
thought, such
own
admire
of
time. of
When
Descartes
about
to
the reconstruction
philoso
phy,
and
the
practice of
source
looking to
authority as
the
ultimate
done, he
34
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
sought
fessed
more
natural
fountain human
of true
and principles,
thus
pro the of
to
find it in the
way, from
mind;
of
passing, in
to
directest
the
method
authority
that
described
us
in my with
our
first paper.
Self -conscious
to furnish
fundamental
But
as
truths,and
to
decide
not
what
was
agreeableto
true, he
was
reason.
since,evidently,
the first condi
,
all ideas
are
led to note,
must
tion of tion
never
be clear.
and
The
distinc so,
between occurred
idea
to
seeming
clear
to
really being
him.
Trusting
as introspection,
he
did, even
he
own
for
knowledge
of external
things,why
contents
should
of
our
then, I
and
seeing men,
who
seemed
to
quite
upon
fundamental of ideas
he principles, is not
further that
led to say
that also
clearness
to
but sufficient,
have
they
need
be
to distinct, i.e.,
nothing unclear
did
about
not
them.
What himself
he
probably
meant
by this (for he
that
explain
the test
seem
with
precision)was,
they
sustain
not
never
of dialectkal clear
to at
only
be able
them. that
was
bring
Such
with
one
was
Descartes, and
of his
sees
it
was
on precisely
philosophy.
great and
failed
to
see
It
somewhat
developed by
was as saw.
This
he
singular
as
genius
what work
remarkable
That
a
for do
he
piece
of
could
power
not
perpetually without
a
being
in
some
form, was
understand
thing perfectlyapparent
that the
not
machinery
of the mind
only trans-
HOW
TO
MAKE
OUR
IDEAS
CLEAR
35
I form
V
with tial
knowledge, but
never
originateit,unless
He thus
it be
fed
facts of observation.
missed
the most
essen
point
of
the
Cartesian
philosophy, which
seem
is, that
to
us
to
accept propositionswhich
a
perfectly evident
we illogical,
is
it be
or logical
cannot
help doing.
he
regarding
the
matter
in this way,
to formulas
was
sought to reduce
cannot
which
be denied
unaware
and self-contradiction,
apparently positionand
formalities
of
the
great difference
between
to
his
that of
of Descartes. above
So he reverted
the
old
logic,and,
all, abstract
It
was
definitions
played
quitenatural,
of Descartes
to ourselves
that therefore,
observing
that
we
the
method
seem
labored
to
under
the
that difficulty of
may
have
clear
no
apprehensions
better
ideas
which
to
in
truth
to
are re
very
hazy,
remedy
occurred
him
than
term.
quire an
abstract
definition the
of every
important
Ac
cordingly,in adopting
notions, he described
hension books that V
-
distinct
the
quality as
in the words.
ever
the
of have
everything contained
ever
since
copied his
will
danger
his chimerical
new can
scheme
ever
again
be
over-valued. definitions.
Nothing
be
learned
by analyzing
can
our Nevertheless,
beliefs existing is
an
be
set
in order of
by
this
process, economy,
and
as
order of
essential other.
are
element may be
intellectual
every
It
acknowledged,
therefore,that
with
a
the books
the
notion
of
apprehen omitting
sion, and
all mention
the
denning
of any
second.
in
36
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
simply
years
mirror
philosophy
which
"
was
exploded
of may
our
hundred
ago.
That
ornament
"
logic
be
"
"
the doctrine
of clearness it is
distinctness
to
pretty
of
enough,
but
high
relegate to
to
uses. wear
cabinet
us some
curiosities
the
about
thing
The
better very
adapted
modern that
we
first lesson
us one
have
to
right to
our
demand
is,how
it To
make
ideas
clear;
minds be
most
important
in need
our own
is,depreciated only by
know what
a we
stand of
of it.
think, to
meaning,
will make
solid foundation
weighty thought.
ideas such A
are as
It is most and
easily learned
far
by
those
whose
meagre
and restricted;
a
happier they
of
than
wallow
in helplessly
rich mud
course
conceptions.
nation, it
the and of
is true, may,
in the of
an
of
generations, overcome
wealth of
disadvantage
excessive
a
language deep
concomitant,
may
see
vast,
unfathomable
it in
history,
its
virtue
of the untirable
patience which
in every
not
branch
The
page
of
history is
a
yet unrolled
or
whether
such
one
people
whose which
will
will not
long
prevail over
are
(likethe
sesses an a
words
of their
language)
over can
few,
but
wonderful
mastery
those be
which
no
it has.
individual,however,
clear young ideas
man are
there
more
question
confused
to
few A
worth
than be
to
many
would of his
hardly
persuaded
save
sacrifice
the the
greater part
thoughts
the
rest; and
HOW
TO
MAKE
OUR
IDEAS
CLEAR
37
muddled
a
head
is the Him
we
least
can
apt
to
see
the
necessity of
such
as a
sacrifice.
with
person
congenital defect.
with
will
intellectual
maturity
regard
clearness
rather
as
late, an
clearness have
to
a one
unfortunate
is of less
use
arrangement
to
a man
of settled
Nature,
in
inasmuch
errors
whose life,
in
great
measure
had
their him.
effect, than
it would
to
see
be how
whose
path
lies before
single unclear
in
a
idea,
single head,
in
an
meaning,
act
lurking
young of inert
man's
matter
sometimes
like
an
nu
brain, and
of his
condemning
pine
away of
fullness
intellectual
vigor
has of
an
the
midst for
intellectual
as
plenty.
some
Many
vague
man
cherished
years
his
hobby
be
shadow
idea,
too
meaning
it, has
has
companion
and
by day
his
and
by night,
all other it and and
given
to it his
strength
and
as
leaving life,
has
occupations
for
for
its
sake,
lived
with
it,until
of his
to
it has
become,
and then
flesh of his
waked away up like of man;
some
flesh
bone
bone;
bright
beauti
morning
ful with
find it gone,
of the
clean
the
Melusina it. I
fable, and
known of
essence
his and
life gone
who
can
have
myself
histories what
tell how
many
metaphysicians, circle-squarers,
not
astrologers,and story?
not, may
38
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
II
The
set principles to
a
lead,
of
at once,
a
method
reaching a
the
"
clearness
"
of
thought
far
higher grade
there
than
distinctness
of the
logicians.
is excited
We
have the
found of
that
the and
action of
ceases
thought
when
by
irritation that
doubt,
tained^so
of my
as
the
production of
belief is the
are
thought.
purpose.
All
these
as
words, however,
if I had
a are
too
strong for
It is
described
the
phenomena
Doubt relate
use
they
appear the
mental
microscope.
and
to
Belief, as
commonly
employed,
But here I
other or religious
to
discussions. any
them how in
question, no
of it. and
matter
small
how
a
great, and
the
resolution my
If, for
find
my
a
stance, in
cent
purse
fiveis To
cer
nickel
to
five coppers,
in which
I way
decide, while
I will pay my decision
my
hand fare.
going
the
a use
purse,
call such
question Doubt,
words such
a
and
is Belief, the
tainly to
To
very doubt
to disproportionate
as
occasion. which
speak
to
of
causing
a
an
irritation which is
needs
be
appeased, suggests
of
temper
uncom
fortable
to the verge
minutely,
hesitation nickel
it must
as
be
that, if
there
is the
to
whether will be
I shall pay
sure
the
(as
there
to
be, unless
some
previouslycontracted
is too
habit I
in the
am
matter), though
to
irritation mental
strong
word, yet
be
excited
to
such
small
activityas
V Most
may
necessary
deciding how
some
I shall act.
frequentlydoubts
arise from
however indecision,
HOW
TO
MAKE
OUR
IDEAS
CLEAR
39
momentary,
for time
in
to
our
action. in
a
Sometimes
it is not
so.
have,
the the which
example,
I read
wait
and railway-station,
on
to
pass
the advertisements
of different
to
the
walls,I
compare
routes to
advantages
I
never
trains
and
different
expect
of
be
in
state to
mere
hesitancy,because
me.
bored
with
trouble
feigned
or
hesitancy, whether
a
for
amusement
with
loftypurpose,
plays
great part
the doubt
in the may
may
production of
scientific
it originate,
stimulates
the
to
an
activitywhich Images
pass into in
"
be
turbulent.
incessantlymelting
over
"
another, until
fraction of
a
at
last,when
an
all is
it may
be
second, in
decided
as we we as
hour,
how
or
after should
long
act
our
years under
we
to
we
such
those
have
which
occasioned belief.
sorts
hesitation.
words,
attained
two
this process
observe
of elements may
a
of
con
which In
best be made
by
are
means
of
an
illustration.
piece of
A
music
single
exists
may
prolonged
each
for
an
hour of that
as
day, and it
as
perfectly in
second
time
in
the whole
taken
it is
sounding, it might
the past
was
be present to
as
from
as
which
everything in
But
completely absent
the
it is different
with
air,the performance
the
occupies a certain
it
are
portions of
in the
an ear
which
only portions of
in the
It consists strike
orderliness
at
succession and
to
of per-
which
different
times;
40
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
ceive which We
it there makes
must
be
some
continuity of consciousness
a
the
events
of
lapse of
air
time
present to
the
us.
by hearing
separate
we
notes; yet
cannot
be said to
at
hear of of
only
what
is present
cannot
we
the
an
instant,and
instant.
orderliness
two sorts
succession
exist in
are
\These
objects,what
we ness. are
conscious found
of
and
what
mediately
Some
conscious
in all conscious
completely pres
others and
ent
at
every
are
(like end,
thought)
and which
consist flow
to
of sensations be
through
us, but
They
some
cannot
immediately
the
present
future. the We
portion of
past
or
Thought
of
is
our
thread
of
sensations.
that
justas
piece of
own
music
may
be written
in parts, each of
same
air,so
various
systems
the
of relationship sensations.
subsist
together between
are
different systems
distinguished Thought
func-
by having
is
different such
motives, ideas,or
for its sole
functions.
only
one
system;
motive, idea,and
does
not
tion is to
that The
whatever other
concern
purpose action
serve rare
belongs
of
to
some
system
of
relations.
thinking may
to amuse to
have incidentally
other
results.
It may it is not
to
us, for
example,
have it
and
among
dilettanti
find those of
who
so seems
perverted thought
to
vex
the
pleasure
that which
them
to
think it may
questionsupon
they delightto
a
exercise
get finallysettled;and
positivediscovery
HOW
TO
MAKE
OUR
IDEAS
CLEAR
41
which
takes is met
favorite with
subject out
of the
arena
of
literary
debate
ill-concealed
dislike.
But
This
disposition
mean
is the very
debauchery of thought.
from be
ing
of
thought,abstracted
it,though
it may
the other
which
accompany
never
be made
to direct
but
the pro
duction
of belief.
Thought
for its
only
pos-
the attainment
thought
rest; and
whatever
refer to belief is
which
closes
musical have
phrase
seen
in the it has
are
symphony
of
our
intellectual
life. We
i
that
we
it is
something
that
aware
the irritation of
ment
in
our
nature
rule of
action,or,
say
short,a
is the
rest
habit.
motive
a
As for
it appeases
the
irritation of
doubt,
comes
for
a
moment
belief is reached.
But,
which
same
since
belief is
rule doubt
for
further
it is
a
and
thought, at
is also
a new
the
it stopping-place, That is
why
I have
permitted myself
call it action.
thought
The
at
final
of this
upshot thought
of
no
thinking
is the
a
exercise
of
and volition,
a
stadium
of mental which
effect upon
nature
due
to
thought,
thinking.
establishment of
a
^ The
and
of
belief is the
are
habit,,
different beliefs
to
distinguished by
\of action
which
If beliefs do
differ
42
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
they
appease
the
no
doubt
by producing
in the
rule
of
action, then
differences
make them
of consciousness
more
of them
different
than
tunes.
playing a
tune
in different
are
keys
is
different
Imaginary
differ which
distinctions
often
of
between
"
beliefs which
the
only
ensues
in their is real
mode
expression;
however. To and
to
wrangling
that
enough,
as
believe
any
objects are
are
arranged
as
in
are
Fig. i,
arranged
in
Fig. 2,
Fig.
Fig.
one
and
the
assert
same one
belief;yet
it is conceivable
that other.
man
should
proposition and
do
as
deny
as
the
Such
much
are
harm among
of be
we
and reallydifferent,
the
which
are
upon
One
singular deception
mistake
the for of
of this sort,
occurs,
is to of
sensation
a
produced
of that the the
by
our
unclearness
are
thought
Instead
character
object
thinking.
perceiving
that
we
fancy
contem-
HOW
TO
MAKE
OUR
IDEAS
CLEAR
43
is
essentially mysterious;
i"
our
conception be afterward
we
presented to
as
us
in
form
do
not
recognizeit
the same,
owing
to
as
absence
of the
impassablebarrier
that it
in the way
terests
of
perspicuous thinking; so
of rational
equally
in
the opponents
to
and
Another
in the tinction age, when
to
deception is
mistake
of
two
mere
difference
for
a
grammatical
between
the the
construction
ideas
words In
dis
they
express.
this
so
pedantic
more
general mob
this things,
of writers
error an
attend
much
words
than to
that
is
common
enough. When
that it consists
not
I in
a
just said
a
thought
a
is
action, and
although relation,
can
person be
performs
the result
an
action but
an
which relation,
was no
only
of
action,yet
a
there
inconsistencyin
what
said,but only
gram
matical From
as we
sophisms
we
shall be function
perfectlysafe
of
so
long
the whole
thought
there
is to pro-
\jduce
with
action; and
that whatever
to
is connected is
an accre-
thought, but
but it,
no
irrelevant
its purpose,
a
,-^onto
a
unity
we a
among
our on
sensations
which
reference
we
to how
shall act of
given occasion, as
we
when
listen to
piece
its
music,
why
we
v
do not
call that
thinking. To
to determine
develop
what what
meaning,
habits it prohabits
on
duces, for
volves.
is
a
simply
habit under
it in how it
Now,
i
the
to
depends
such
\s
might lead
us
act, not
merely
circumstances
44
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
as
are
likely to arise,but
no
under
such
as
might possibly
be.
us
"
occur,
matter
how
on
improbable they
when and how
to
may
What
the
habit
is
depends
it
causes
to
act. \ As
for the
when, every
for the
stimulus
action purpose
we
is derived of action
come
from
per
ception; as
duce
some
how, every
is to pro
to what
sensible result.
as practical,
Thus,
the root subtile
so
down
is
tangibleand
of
no
of every it may
as
real distinction
thought, no
distinction
a
matter
how
be;
and in
there
is
of
meaning
of
fine
to
consist
anything
but To of
possibledifference
see
practice/
in the
what
a
this
light
The
it such
doctrine
that
of
transubstantiation.
that in
a
Protestant
sacrament
churches
are our
generallyhold
blood
the elements
of the
only
nourish bodies.
meat
and
the
juice of
that
But
Catholics
maintain
they
literally
of qualities
no a con
have into
ception
either
1. 2.
"
of
except
enter
belief,
That That
this,that,or
wine
are
the
other, is wine;
or,
possesses
certain but in
properties.
self-notifications that
we we
Such
beliefs
nothing
should, upon
believe
to
occasion,act
regard
to
to
such
things as
we
be wine
to
according
The
the
be
lieve wine be
some ence some
possess.
occasion
would
sensible
perception,the
Thus
our our
motive has
of it to
produce
sensible
to what
as our
result.
action habit
same
exclusive referthe
our
has
as
same
bear
ing
action, our
belief
the
habit, our
HOW
TO
MAKE
OUR
IDEAS
CLEAR
45
conception the
mean or
same
as
our
and belief;
we
can
consequently
wine
our
but
what
and
has
certain
direct^ effects,
something
as
senses;
to talk
of
having
sensible
senseless
characters
of
in
reality blood, is
to
a
jargon. Now,
and
object
it
as
pursue
the
theological question;
I
having
to
logicalexample
drop it,without
desire
caring
to
an
anticipate
how im
the
point
idea
out
our
possible it
which
should
have
in
minds
relates to
sensible effects of
idea of its sensible
we
things. Our
and effects;
idea if
we
anything
that
mere we
is
our
fancy
a
have
any
other
deceive
the
and ourselves,
mistake
sensation
accompanying
It is absurd
to
thought
that tion.
for
to say
thought
meaning
Catholics
unrelated and
its
only
to
func
It is foolish in
Protestants
fancy
sacra
themselves
disagreement about
agree in
the elements
of the
ment,
here
or
if
they
regard
to
all their
sensible
effects,
hereafter.
It appears,
then,
of
that
the
rule
for is
as
attaining the
follows:
third
grade
what
apprehension
Consider
practicalbear
to
ings, we Then,
our
object
of
of
our
conception
whole
have. of
our
conception
these
effects is the
Let
us
by
some
examples; and,
us
to
we
begin
mean
with
simplest one
possible,let
ask
what
by callinga thing
hard.
Evidently
that
it will not
46 be
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
scratched
by
many
other
substances.
The
whole
in its
con
con
ception
ceived
a
of this
quality,as
There
a
of every
other, lies
effects.
is
absolutely no
difference
are
between
hard
thing and
soft
not
brought
be crys should
it be
seems a
to
the test.
diamond
could
cushion
of soft
cotton, and
up. Would
there say
until it that
was
that
soft?
This
foolish realm
question, and
of
would
be
so, in
fact, except
are
in of
the the
logic.
There
such
to
questions
often
as greatest utility
serving
bring logicalprinciplesinto
ever
sharper
relief than
must
real discussions
not
could.
In
study
ing logic we
but make case,
must out
put them
with
aside with
attentive
hasty
in
answers,
consider the
them
care, may,
order
to
involved. principles
our
We
ask what
in the present
us
modify
question,and
bodies
prevents
from
saying
are
remain
perfectlysoft
increases with
until
they
until
Reflection
will
reply
is this:
would
be
a
no
in falsity
speech. They
usage but be
not
involve
present
and
of
speech
of their
regard
to
soft,
meanings.
what it
For
they represent
involve
no
different
from
ments
of facts which
us
would that
leads
under
to
remark
the
circumstances
which
do
not
actually arise
is not
perspicuous arrange
of them.
For
example,
fate in its
HOW
TO
MAKE
OUR
IDEAS
CLEAR
47
I have
an
done
something
of which
am
ashamed;
I, by
effort of the
otherwise?
done
a
facts.
Arranging them
my
to
"
exhibit
ticularly pertinent to
to
question
done
to
namely,
wrong do
"
ought
blame
to
myself
for
having
it is
perfectly
I
true
say
that,if
done
so as
I had
willed
otherwise
than
did,
I should
have facts is
otherwise.
to exhibit true
On
the other
hand,
arrang
ing
the
another
a
important
considera has
once
tion,it
been
duce
equally
to
that, when
it if will,
temptation
a
allowed
its
work,
me
it has
certain
force,pro
There
is from
no a
let effect,
a
struggle how
in what ad
I may. would
objection to
false
contradiction
result
supposition. The
that
reductio
absurdum
would
consists
from
in
a
showing
contradictory results
is
follow
which hypothesis
consequently judged
in the say of that free-will both
to be false.
Many
I
am
questionsare
far from
involved
and discussion,
are
desiringto
am
sides that
one
equally right.
side denies
But what im I do the
On
the contrary, I
opinion
that
the other
does
not.
singlequestion was
it not have been for
the
this
origin of
whole
question,the question
controversy would
is
arisen;and
which of
perfectlysolved
Let
us
in the
a
manner
indicated.
is another
next
case.
seek To
Weight.
is
very
easy
body
heavy
simply
This
that, in
the
absence
opposing force, it
how
will fall.
certain (neglecting
of specifications of the
it will
uses
fall, etc.,
the
which
who physicist
word)
48
is
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
evidently the
whether
whole
some
conception
of
weight.
may
It is
not
fair
question
for
particular facts
we mean
account
com
gravity; but
what
by
the
force itself is
pletelyinvolved
This Force leads in
us
in its effects.
to
undertake This
an
account
of
the
idea
of
general.
in rude the
is the of
great
the and
to
conception which,
century
developed
from upon the
early part
of
a us
seventeenth
idea
cause, how
constantly improved
all the
since,has
which
shown bodies
explain
how
changes
about modern
of motion all
experience,and
which face has of
to think
given
the has
birth
to
science, and
aside from in
the
globe; played
and
a
which, principal
and in
special uses,
course
part
directing the
of
modern
thought,
It
furthering modern
worth
some
social
to
development.
it.
is, therefore,
to
our use
pains
comprehend
what
According
immediate
we
rule,we
of
must
begin by asking
about
is the
thinking
for
force; and
of
the
answer
is,that
bodies of in
were
account
changes
without continue
motion.
If
themselves,
motion
the
intervention both of is
forces,
would
unchanged
velocityand
never
direction.
Furthermore, change
if its direction without The
motion
takes
changed,
its
it is
always
is
angles; if
it velocityalters,
are
by degrees.
gradual changes
conceived
to
which
to
constantly compounded
of
by geometers
rules
not
be
together according
forces.
he If the
the does
to
of
the
parallelogram
what
to
reader
already
know
this
is,
to
are
will find
it, I hope,
his
advantage
endeavor
follow
the
followingexplanation; but
if mathematics
HOW
TO
MAKE
OUR
IDEAS
CLEAR
49
to him, insupportable
pray
let him
skip
paragraphs
rather A
than
that is
a
we
should
part company
path
line whose
beginning
to to
and
are
distin
guished.
Two
paths
the
same
are
considered
be
equivalent, which,
same
beginning at
the
two
point,lead
the
point.
Thus
paths, ABCDEandAFGHE
which do
not
equivalent. Paths
considered of them
to be
point are
moving either
without
to always parallel
its
beginning
coincides
with
path,the
ends
also coincide.
Paths
one
are
considered
together,when path A
E.
sum
be
to
gins where
be
of
or,
a sum
the other
is conceived
of A B, B C, C D, and
A C
In the of A
parallelogram
B B and B
is the
C;
geometricallyequivalent to
of A B and A D.
C, A C is
the
geometrical sum
~G CTFig.
3
H D
Fig. 4 It
this that
is
we
purely conventional.
choose
to
or
simply
the
amounts
to
call
paths having
relations I
it is
a con
described
is
a
equal
added.
But, though
a
vention, it
for
convention may
with
be
can
good
reason.
The
to
rule
geometrical addition
other
applied not
be the
only
paths,
but to any
things which
is determined
represented by paths.
Now,
as
path
by
varying
direction
and
50
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
distance
of the follows
point which
that
moves
over
the
startingto
point,it
its end
anything by
a
which
beginning
a
is determined is
varying
direction
and
varying
a
magnitude
capable
velocities
of may
being represented by
be
and
line.
Accordingly, they
true
represented by lines,for
rates.
have of
only
directions
The
same
thing
This
is is
accelerations, or
changes
of
we
of
velocities.
evident evident
enough
in the
case
it becomes
for accelerations
are
if
"
preciselywhat
of
to
positions
are
namely,
to
change
of
that
accelerations
"
velocities. of
so-called
for
parallelogram
forces
The and
"
is
simply
is,
to
compounding
the
accelerations.
rule
then
to
represent
accelerations the
by
The
paths,
geo
not
paths.
geometers,
forces
"
however,
compound
the
"
parallelogram of
also
to
dif
but accelerations,
sum
to
resolve
B
one
acceleration
the
a
of
several.
Let
(Fig. 5) be
represents
"
path
which
certain
a a
acceleration
say, such of
change body
one
in the motion
at
that
the
end
of
second
the
body will,
under
change, be
different would that
a
position
what
it such
from
have
had
if its motion A
had B
continued
unchanged,
from
path equivalent to
the former.
would
lead
the latter
to position
as
be considered
A C and
the
sum
of the accelerations
representedby
C B.
HOW
TO
MAKE
OUR
IDEAS
CLEAR
51
It may
also be
considered
as
the A D
sum
of the D
very
different
A D is is
accelerations almost
an
represented by
A ways C.
and
B, where
that
the
opposite of varietyof
of two
And
in which
it is clear A B
there
immense
sum
might be resolved
into the
accelerations.
After
the
not at
this tedious
explanation,which
of the
hope,
of
are
in view
of
extraordinary interest
have last to exhausted
state
conception
force,may prepared
em
the
reader's patience,we
this
conception
bodies.
which
This the
changes
of motion each
different
of particles
bodies
each
experience are
component
a
resolved tion is
in its
appropriate way,
as
accelera law of
preciselysuch
to
is
prescribed by
bodies
certain
Nature, according
which
which
in the relative
at
positions
the moment,2
com
always pounded
which This and what
acceleration
only
will
the
idea
of force represents,
whoever
this
we
trouble
clearly to
what
an
apprehend
force is.
fact
Whether
or
ought
an
say
that
force
a mere
is
acceleration,
pro real
"
that it
causes
is acceleration, has
no
question of
do with
our
more
to
difference
between
the French
idiom
//
faitfroid"
it is men's
and
its
is cold.""
Yet
surprisingto
minds. of
as
see
simple
affair has
muddled force
to
In how
"
profound
treatises is not
seems
spoken
2
mysterious entity,"which
have
to
be
Possibly the
velocities also
be
taken
into
account.
52
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
only
way
of
author word
despairs of
means! In it is
a
ever
re
gettinga clear
cent
the
admired
we
Analytic
stated what
a
that
understand
we
preciselythe
understand! which
force,but
is
do not The
no
simply
selfin
idea
the than
word
to
force affect
to
our
excites
minds these
has
other
can
function have
no
actions,
otherwise
what fact is
actions
reference
force
we
through
its effects.
we
Consequently,
are
if
know every
acquainted
a
with
which
implied in saying
to
that
force
and exists, is
some
there
nothing
notion mind
more
know.
a
The
truth
mean
is,there
vague
afloat that
cannot
question may
and
something
some
which
the
conceive;
been
have
when
hair-splitting
the
philosophers have
such
tween
a
confronted
invented
an
with
absurdity
of
empty
distinction the
be
to
negative conceptions,in
a
attempt
form
not
obviously nonsensical.
from from the
The
sufficiently plain
considerations considera
must
few
pages
those
distinction
have
mind
accustomed
to real
thinking.
IV
Let
a
us
now
approach
the
subject of logic,and
consider
conception which
clearness than
concerns particularly
it,that of reality.
idea could
Taking
in the this.
sense
of child
no familiarity, uses
be clearer
Every
it with
not
perfect con
it.
never fidence,
dreaming
that
he
does
understand
HOW
TO
MAKE
OUR
IDEAS
CLEAR
53
As
for clearness
in
grade, however,
among those of
a
it would reflective
of such
mind,
a
to
give
abstract
definition of
reached
the
real.
Yet
definition may
difference
a
perhaps be
between of
by consider
its
and reality
opposite,
figment is
characters characters external
our own same
product
as are
somebody's imagination;
upon
or
his
thought impresses
of how
it. I
independent
you
think
nomena
reality. There
are,
however, phe
our
within
are
minds, dependent
time real in the their
on
upon
thought,
we on
which think
we
at
the But
sense
that
really
how
them.
though
characters
what has
a we
depend
think
think,they
to
do not
depend
a
those char
as a
acters
be.
Thus,
dream
real
existence
mental
phenomenon,
so
if
somebody
not
has
really dreamt
on
it;
and
so, does is
depend
what
anybody
of all
dreamt, but
the
completely independent
the the other
opinion
not
hand, considering,
it retains
was as
the
fact of
thing dreamt,
fact than define of what
its
peculiarities by
to
of
no
other
we
that it
the
possess
Thus
may
real
whose think
characters them
to
independent
anybody
be.j
a
But, however
it would idea
our
such satisfactory
be
found,
the
be
great mistake
to
suppose
it makes let
us
of
Here, then,
apply
other
rules.
every
consists quality,
peculiarsensible
The
partaking of
have is to
it
produce.
cause
for belief,
54.
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
emerge
into
consciousness
in
the
form
of
beliefs.
is,how question,therefore,
from real) distinguished
as
is true
tion). Now,
ideas of
we
have
in
the their
former full
paper,
the
truth
and
falsehood, in
the
development,
of
scientific method
the
settling
who
can
chooses arbitrarily
use
propositions
to
on
he will
adopt
the word
truth
to
only
hold
empha
to
expression of
Of
course, the
his
of
tenacity never
to
men
prevailed
But
reason exclusively;
is too dark
for that.
some
in
of the
find
fine upon
a
examples poetical
When
Scotus
Erigena
commenting spoken
not
in which of
hellebore
of
as
having caused
to
Socrates, he
that
hesitate and
inform
were
the
two
inquiring reader
eminent
overcome
Helleborus
Socrates
the latter took idea
Greek
having been
matter to
by
What
the
former of
an
the
heart
a man
died who
of it! could
sort
of truth
could
adopt
an
and
teach, without
taken
so
the quali
ran
perhaps,
real
opinion
The
have be
delighted to
he would with would
overcome
in
argument,"
have the
seem naive
something by it,is
of the been
in curious
contrast
dis
When and
cussion
to to
simply
its
struggle.
philosophy began
awake
from
long slumber,
it,the practiceseems
seize upon and any
have
been
for each he
professor to
philoso
seemed
a
phical position
found
unoccupied
which
HOW
TO
MAKE
OUR
IDEAS
CLEAR
55
strong one,
time
to
to intrench to
himself
to
in
and it,
to
sallyforth
Thus,
even
from the
us
time
give battle
we or
the
others.
scanty
make
at
one
records
a
possess
more
of those
disputes enable
to
out
dozen
opinionsheld by
the
different teachers
time Read
concerning
the
question
of
of
nominalism
Historic,
and
realism.
tatum any
opening part
who
was
the
Calami-
of of
Abelard,
certainly as
see
as philosophical
his
contemporaries, and
For When
the
spiritof combat
is of
which ticular
it breathes.
par-, pre
stronghold.
truth
meant
vailed,the
little more
the Catholic
are
faith. toward
doctors
directed their
harmonizing Church,
without and
their
one
and
faith in the
may
ponderous
goes any
folios
through
It is
findingan
that
argument
further. side
noticeable
where
faiths
flourish
even
by side,
the
renegades are
whose
looked
contempt
by
the
party
of
"
belief
they adopt;
that of
completely
has
loyalty replaced
truth-seeking. conception
sometimes been
on
Since of
the
of
'
in the will
truth
a
been
apparent.
that what in the
it Still,
scientific
on
philosophers have
facts are, than
finding
belief is
'
out
the
inquiring what
It is hard
most
a
harmony
of the that
an
with
a
their system.
to convince
follower
him what
to
priorimethod
show with
opinion he
laid down
These
to
is
defending is
inconsistent
he has
it.
ever
elsewhere,and
do
not
seem seem
he will be very
to
apt
retract
minds
cease;
believe that
that the
they
one man
to
think
so
is natural
for
is not
for
another,
56
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
and
that
belief
will,consequently,
with lead
never
be
own
settled.
In
a
contenting
method
fixingtheir
man
opinions by
a
which
another hold of
to
different result,
of what
they betray
truth is.
feeble
the
conception
On
the other
of science
are
fully
persuaded
far
to
enough,
which
give
be
one
certain
to
every
question
they
can
applied. One
the
may
investigate
and
transits
of Venus
stars; another
by
the
;
oppositions of
a
eclipsesof Jupiter'ssatellites
a
third
by
a
the fifth
method
Fizeau;
of the
a
fourth
curves
by
of
that
of
Foucault;
by
an
the motions
ninth, may
measures
follow
the and
different
methods elec
of
the may
dynamical
tricity. They
as
at
different
results,but,
the results
each
move
perfects his
method
his processes,
a
steadily together
research.
destined
minds the
center.
So*
out
Different but
may progress of
set
antagonistic views,
them
of
in
vestigation carries
to
one
by
force
outside
themselves
and
we
the
are
same
conclusion. where
This
we
by
which
carried,not
the of
ordained
goal, is like
the
operation
view
of
no
destiny. No
selection
even,
can
fication of
facts
a man
point
no
taken,
of
for
to
study,
escape
natural
bent
of mind
enable
the
This
great law
The
is embodied
in the
reality.
HOW
TO
MAKE
OUR
IDEAS
CLEAR
57
to
opinion which
who
to
we
be
mean
ultimatelyagreed by
the
by all*,
the ob
is investigate,
truth, and
That
jectrepresentedin
I would But
to
is the way
explain reality.
it may abstract
as
be
said
that
this
view
we
is directlyopposed
the
definition
which
have of
given
the But
of
reality, depend,
answer
inasmuch
on
it makes
the
characters about
real the
what
is
ultimatelythought
the
one
them.
to this is
that,on
necessarilyof thought
I
on or
in of
general,but only
men
of what
you
or
any the
may the
think
about the
it;and that,
final
hand, though
what
on
object of
what
opinion
is
*
depends
does
not
that
that
opinion
depend
what
or
any
man
thinks.
Our the
an as
perversityand
settlement of
that of others
may
indefinitely postpone
even
opinion; it might
be
conceivably cause
as
arbitrarypropositionto
the human the nature
race
universallyaccepted
Yet
even
long
should
last.
that would
not
change
(
of the
which belief,
alone
could
and
be
if,after
race,
another
should
arise with
true
opinion must
to.
"
which earth
they
would
ultimatelycome
the
Truth which
crushed would
on
to
opinion
not
result finally
depend
how
anybody
is real
3
may
actuallythink. depend
on
the fact
to
of reality that
come
a
that which
does
means
the
which
is investigation
true, and
can
Fate
merely that
a
nohow
events
never
be
are
avoided.
ever
It is
superstition to
it is another
to
suppose suppose
that that
are
certain word
to
sort
of
can
fated, and
its
the
fate die.
be freed from
taint. superstitious
We
all fated
58 destined
to
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
lead,
at
last,if
continued
long enough,
to
say
to
facts of books
history,forgottennever ancients,to
the
of the
buried
"
Full
many
gem
of purest
ray
serene
The
dark,
a
unfathomed is born
caves
of blush the
ocean
bear;
air."
flower
to
on
unseen, desert
waste
its sweetness
Do
these
things not
the reach is dead of
reallyexist because
our
they
And
are
hopelessly
the
beyond
universe
knowledge?
the
then, after
some
(according to
ceased there
predictionof
not
forever,will
will be
no no
the
continue
though
mind
to know
reply that,though
any number the be
in
possiblestate
to
of knowl the
to
edge
tion
amount
great enough
of what
express unknown
rela the
between of the
amount
rests
known, yet
to
it is
unphilosophicalto
suppose has
a
that, with
clear
regard
any
any
bring
Who
forth would
solu
have
tion of
it,if
few
it
were
far
we
enough.
could
ever
said, a
years
stars
are
know have
of what
substances
in
whose
lightmay
race
been
Who
longer
can
reaching us
sure can
than
we
has in
a
existed?
few hundred
be Who
of what guess
know be the
years?
what
pursuit of
science
thousand if it
were
with
on
the for
a
activity million,
is it
go
any
of years
you
please,how
HOW
TO
MAKE
OUR
IDEAS
CLEAR
59
to possible
say
that
there is any
question which
might
not
ultimately be solved?
But
remote
it may
be
objected, Why
"
make
so
much
of
these
it is your
a
principle
"
that I must
we
only practicaldistinctions
confess that
a
have
meaning?
Well,
that
stone
it makes
on
very
say
the bottom
not
"
complete
darkness,is brilliant or
makes may
no
remembering difference,
up
to-morrow.
always that
that
that
stone
at
be fished
But
there
are
gems
the bottom
are
desert,etc.,
propositionswhich, like
when of
seems our
diamond
being
hard
ment
it is not
pressed,concern
than
the arrange of
our
language
to me,
they
that
do the
we
meaning
ideas.
It of
mean our
however,
so
have, by
the
application
of what
rests
we
rule,reached
and by reality,
clear
an
apprehension
which
a we
of the
fact
the
idea
on, pre
a
that
we
should
as
pretension so
were
sumptuous
be
if singular,
to
offer
metaphysical theory
among lief. curious sunken those who
existence
for universal
acceptance
of
employ
as
fixingbe
more
However,
than
metaphysics
subject
much that
of
us
which, like
to
of of
reef,serves
trouble
keep clear
it,
at
any led
more
Ontology
further
I have than
a
already
have
much
path
I should dose of
desired; and
I have
given
and
reader
such
mathematics, psychology,
I fear he may
that is most
me,
abstruse,that
what
I
am now
already
for the
have
and
that
writing is
compositor
6o
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
and
proofreader
the
exclusively.
There is
no
trusted
to
the
importance
and
of
subject.
ideas
can
royal
had
at
road
to
logic,
of
really
atten
valuable
tion. But
only
that
be
the
price
of
close
the
know
in
the
matter
ideas
public
I
am
prefer
going
from
the
cheap
return
to
and
nasty;
the
and
in
my
next
paper
not
to
easily
who
intelligible,
has been
and
wander
it
again. through
The
reader
at
the
in
pains
the
of
wading
one
this
paper,
shall
be
what
rewarded
next
by
this
seeing
tedious
how
beautifully
can
has
been
developed
of
in
way scientific
be
applied
to
the
ascertainment
the
We
rules
of
reasoning.
not
have,
It is
hitherto, certainly
but
crossed
the
threshold know
how
of
scientific
make
logic.
ideas
important
may
to
to
our
clear,
How
they
make
be
ever
so
clear
without
being
How
true.
to
them
those
so,
we
have
next
to
study.
ideas
to
give
birth
into
to
vital
and
procreative
and diffuse
which
multiply everywhere,
of man, which is
thousand
forms
themselves
advancing
an
civilization
and
making
but of
the
dignity
secret
art
not
yet
of
reduced
to
rules,
some
the
of
the
history
science
affords
hints.
THIRD
PAPER
THE
DOCTRINE
OF
CHANCES1
IT
is
common
observation
it is
that
science
first What
begins
are
to
be
exact
when
exact
quantitatively
are no
called
ones.
the
sciences
reasoned
others
mathematical
showed
Chemists
how
to
vaguely
balance
to
until the
Lavoisier
them
apply
the
verification
into
of their
theories,
of the thus of it
when
most
chemistry
leaped
the
suddenly
the
position
It has
perfect
so
of
classificatorysciences.
certain that and
we
become
precise and
usually think
But these
along
studies the
with of
electrics.
are
chemistry
of certain
as
considers
merely
and be
relations
in
objects;
longs,
and the
reality, in
category
with from these its
systematic botany
last, however,
and
zoology. advantage
evident. rudest
Compare
that
it
it derives
quantitative
treatment
is very The
numerical
scales, such
the
mere
as
that
by
of
which
the
mineralogists distinguish
are
different
degrees
of
hardness,
sta
some
found
useful.
to
The
counting
out
pistils and
chaos from into
mens
sufficed
of from form.
bring botany
It is not,
not
of
so
total much
kind
as
however,
so
counting
of
measuring,
Science
much
from
the
conception
Popular
Monthly,
March,
61
1878.
62
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
number
as
from
that of continuous
treatment
us
tage of mathematical
Number,
our
after all,
only
serves
to
pin
down
to
precisionin
lead
to
thoughts
which,
however
can beneficial,
seldom
to
loftyconcep
those
two
and tions,
frequently descends
Bacon
notes
pettiness. Of
faculties of which
ences
marks
differ of
use
and
that which
can
resemblances,the employment
lesser one;
the powers and the excessive But
to
number of it must
only
tend
aid
the
to narrow
of the mind.
a
quantity has
attempt
at
great office
Far
of any
precision.
the
it exaggeration of differences,
is the
a
direct
instrument wishes
to
of the finest
generalizations.When
a
naturalist
num
study
he collects species,
more or
considerable
In
more
ber
of
specimens
he observes
less similar.
ones
contemplating
or
them,
in
a some
certain
which
are
less alike
They
He
all
have,
for
instance,
certain
observes
that
not
as
they
are
not
preciselyalike,in
same
precisely
lead him
the
shape, but
that forms he
such
to
to believe
found
intermediate
now,
any
two
of those
possesses.
"
He,
say
a
marking
he
can
"
and
ones
the which
question is,whether
will connect in these in
find
mediate This he
often
succeeds
doing
cases
first be
those in
sometimes
finds
which
to be separated less,
Nature
by
the
non-occurrence
of
intermediaries.
a new
In gen-
this way,
he builds
up
from
the
study
of Nature
THE
DOCTRINE
OF
CHANCES
63
cral for
in
question. He
includes which
show
obtains,
part
the
example,
an
idea of
an
leaf which
of
a
every includes
a
of the
flower,and
I
idea
not
vertebra
much
essence
skull.
surelyneed
is here. How he
say
to
what
logical
of the
engine there
naturalist.2
then of
to
It is the
of the method
one
applies it first to
obtains finally
a
character, and
of
a
another, and
notion
species
however does
not
whose
a
members,
which
great, are
here be
out
or concern
within The
is limits,
matter
whole
method
of classification must
to
point
idea
of
continuity,
form
to
another
by insensible de
the is is
grees, that
the naturalist
are
naturalists
no
the
great builders
where
bther
as our
branch
in
of science
we
much
done for
theirs;and
them it will
everywhere
to
continuityis
power
the of
formation
and
fruitful conceptions.
are
By
and
means
broken
the
down
resolved
incessant
our
of application
broadening
conceptions.
the
great
the
of this idea in
of
and
particularseries
a
philosophy,must
further
on
be
closelystudied.
[Later, pp.
basis of
170
ff. and
215
it is shown ff.,
that also
continuity is also
article
on
at
the
mathematical
generalization. See
Synechism
in Baldwin's
Dictionary of Philosophy.}
64
At of
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC to the
utility
conception.
studies of
numbers,
it is
the
idea
of
continuity is
even
so
in
dispensable,that
there
are
perpetuallyintroduced
where
we
where
is
no
continuityin fact,as
say
that
there
per square
mile,or
house.3
of
errors so
example
of the
Quetelet,Galton,
success
others,have
and biological
cases
applied
with
to
the
study
social matters.
it does
not
applicationof continuity to
where
point which
will here
fictions sometimes
ii
The
theory
of
science
of
logic
cer
quantitativelytreated.
tainties with its truth and
zero
two
conceivable
reference the
any
hypothesis,the certainty of
its this
and
are
certaintyof
falsity. The
numbers
one
to marking calculus,
these inter
extremes
of
fractions
we
having
may
values
mediate
between
as indicate,
vaguely
one a or
say, the
degrees in which
The
3
the evidence of
is the
leans
toward
the other.
generalproblem
This mode of
is,from probabilities
so
given
state
thought
order
with
all exact
nu
merical shallow
none
consideration, that
writers in
to
to
it is imitated exactitude
tone
by
"
produce
which
mean
of
where of the of
exists.
Certain when
newspapers
affect
most
learned
men,
talk
no
average
man,"
they simply
and
have
idea
strikingan
average.
THE
DOCTRINE
OF
CHANCES
65
a
of
facts,to
determine This
are
the
same
numerical
as
of probability
sible fact.
is the
to
as
inquire how
evidence
much
given
facts
worth, considered
Thus the of
to prove
possiblefact.
the
problem
of
is simply probabilities
general problem
a
logic. quantity, so
this mode
as
Probability is
vantages may
Some
of writers
continuous
that
great ad
be expected from
have of gone
so
of
far
to maintain
the
calculus
chances,
every
solid inference
may
be the
represented by legitimatearithmetical
numbers
the of
operations upon
given
in the
premises.
If this it is that
observation
fact
can
give
to
a
us
knowledge
of another
independent
It
seems
fact,is
proper
more
reduced
to
mere
question of arithmetic.
examine
this
any
recondite
solution
paradox.
are probabilities
not
agreed
is the
This
branch
of mathematics writers
only
believe,in which
In
good
frequentlyget
the
results
entirely erroneous.
elementary geometry
erroneous
conclusions
is
a
avoided;
but
on
it may
be
doubted
if there existence
singleex
does
not
tensive contain
treatise
in probabilities
which This
solutions
to
absolutely indefensible.
of any
too
is partly
owing
the want
regular method
many
of procedure; for
it easy aid.
to
But,
are
beyond this,the
more or
fundamental In
of principles
its calculus
less in it is
dispute.
regard to
for
that class of
questions
there
to
which
chieflyapplied
practicalpurposes,
66
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
is
but
in
regard
to
others
to
which
been
sought
to
extend
it,opinion
is somewhat
unsettled.
This
come our
last class of
difficulties can
idea
set
only
be
entirelyover
in
by making
minds
in the
the way
of
probabilityperfectly clear
our
forth in
last paper.
in
To have
get
to
clear idea
what
we
mean
we by probability,
consider
one
sensible
difference there
another.
is
between The
degree
of
probability and
character
to
doubt,
After that
two
certain
explains it
as
follows:
remarking
the
sum
mathematician
of the
angles of
he
apprehends
another
man
geometrical
never a
proof,he
the
But
took
mathe
a
pains
observe
man
the
demonstration, hearing
the three
assents
matician, a angle
to
of
affirm credit,
two
angles of
to
tri
be
equal
to
right ones,
case
re it; i.e.,
In
which the
the
foundation
of his
such
as
is the
probabilityof
part, carries
receives besides The
as,
truth
it; the
to
man
on
whose
testimony
he
it not his
being
wont
affirm
anything
matters
contrary to, or
of this
in knowledge, especially
kind."
celebrated
many
Essay concerning
passages
Human this
not
Understanding
one, make
contains
which, like
are
further
developed.
THE
DOCTRINE
OF
CHANCES
67
that
the validityof
of the mind
an
inference
does
not
depend
on
any
ten
tendency dency
to
strong such
may
be; but
consists
of
the argument
question
are
true,
are
related to them It
was
remarked
conceived
mind logical
an
argu of
is
always
member
same
of and
genus
arguments
when their
all constructed
in the
way,
such
that,
are
so
premises
are
real
is
their facts,
conclusions this is
most
as
also.
so; As
most
If the argument
then demonstrative,
is for the is
"
always
so.
if it is
part
Locke
says,
such
for the
it."
and
According
tween
one
this,that real
of
sensible
difference be
the
degree
and probability
another, in which
in the
meaning ployment
truth is the certain far
as
is that lies, of
frequent em
will carry that this
one inference,
with
it oftener
the other.
is in the
a
It is evident
existingfact.
Having
as
draws
certain
and conclusion,
this inference
alone
is concerned that
conclusion
not,
between
"
existence and
is and
non-existence
there is
middle
Being only
and
nothing
is
altogethernot," said
with the
Parmenides;
sis of the
we on one
analy
For
found
depends
cause
opinion
to
be
universallyreceived
and
to
be
rejected.
That
presupposition,involved
con-
68
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
figment,involves
complete sunder
idea in the
a
ing
main
of the two. of
do
thought. But,
long
of
run,
there is
real fact
it is that
which
a
given
sometimes
a
successful and As
we
sometimes go
on
not, and
ratio
ultimatelyfixed.
during
may when be
we
hundred show
cases
the
ratio of
successes
expected
come
to
considerable and
tuations
become
the ratio
less; and
if
we
continue
a
long
enough,
We
may,
approximate toward
the
fixed limit.
a
therefore,define
as
probability of
in which
mode
of
argument
with The it.
the
proportion of
cases
it carries truth
inference
we
from have
the seen,
premise, A,
on
to the
conclusion,B,
if
depends, as
a
the
a
fact of the
class A
is true, of
is true.
The
probabilityconsists
number of times denominator
the
whose
A and B
numerator
are
in which is the B is
so
true,
in
whose A
number
of
times of
is true, whether
as
not.
Instead
speak
is not
ing
the A
of this
the
probabilityof
the
probabilitythat, if
of the
happens.
without
But
to
speak
probability
no
of the event
B,
all.
naming
the
reallyhas condition,
it is be of
meaning
what
we
at
It is true
that when
perfectlyobvious permitted.
But in
condition
is meant,
the
ellipsis may
habit
should
avoid
contractingthe
the habit
using language
it
this way
(universalas
is),because
gives rise
THE
DOCTRINE
OF
CHANCES action
or
69
of causation determine it
or
to
vague either
way
of
thinking,as
an
if the
to
or
might
not
to
so
determine
or
event
more
happen
happen,
as
leave it
to
an
less free to
chance that
use some
happen
not,
to
give rise
It is
inherent
to
me
in
regard
to its
occurrence.4
and
most
quite clear
of the worst
persistenterrors
have arisen from
in the
of
the
doctrine
of
chances
of
expression.5
IV
But
there
to
remains
what
an
up.
According
has
a
said, the
of inference
idea
of
probability
is
belongs to essentially
An indefinitely.
or
which be
repeated
individual show
to
no a a a no
inference effect of
must
either true
and false,
can
probability;and, there
in
fore,in
reference have
singlecase
considered Yet
a or
itself, prob
to choose
can ability
meaning.
card from one,
a
if
man
had
drawing
cards
and
black
and
pack containing
if the
to
twenty-fiveblack cards
of
a
red one,
to to
and
drawing
eternal
red
card
were a
destined black
one
transport him
that of
consign him
he
to
to
be
follyto deny
that
ought
red
of the
risk,it could
our
not
be
4 5
set
forth
is
that substantially
Of
course,
was
a
first
developed
Venn,
in had
his
Logic
of
Chance. the of
vague
apprehension
the idea
to
problem
to
make
him
credit
first doing
this.
70
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
of
chance. should
He
But draw
suppose
he
should
choose
the
red
pack,
he
with
and
have?
the wrong
say
card, what
consolation
would
might
that he had
acted
in accordance
reason was
reason,
only
if he
as
show
that his
abso
lutelyworthless.
how He he cal could could he
not
should
choose
a
the
right card,
regard
say
anything but
drawn
happy accident?
the other
an
that if he had
from
pack,
might
have
drawn
the wrong
"
hypotheti
propositionsuch
to
a
as,
if
A,
B,"
means
nothing with
in the existence
reference
of
a
singlecase.
Truth
consists
proposition. Corre
B," there
A may such be
an
sponding
the
then
as
event
case
happens
happens.
far
as
in the
man
supposed,
which would
to
has be the he
as parallel
is
existence
could
truth
statement
that, if he had
a
drawn card. in
from
the
other
pack,
black
Indeed,
truth
true
validity
inference
consists
the
of
hypothetical
will
corre
the conclusion
can
spond
is true
to such
propositionis
is
so
that whenever
the consequent
sense
also,it follows
an
there all.
can
be
no
in
reasoning in
isolated case,
at
These
considerations
appear, Yet
first
case
sight,to dispose of
of the other side is
the
not
mentioned. difficulty
the
yet exhausted.
its effect
manifest
thousand of
certain
proportion between
as yet this, we
numbers
successes
failures,
have
seen, is
only
to say
THE
DOCTRINE
OF
CHANCES
71
at
do length,
so.
Now
the number
a man
of
of
draws
life,
finite one,
and
he cannot
with
be
the
certain absolutely
at probabilities
cannot
that the
Tak
mean
all.
ing
collectively, then, it
his
case
be certain that
in de
re
they
and fail,
one
does
not
differ, except
an
the
last of
supposed.
It is
indubitable
theory
that probabilities
must
every
gambler, if
he
long enough,
ultimatelybe
some
ruined.
Suppose
tries the
martingale, which
I
am
believe in
and infallible,
the
is,as
In
informed,
of
disallowed
gamblingsay
playing, he
loses that he then
first bets he
$i;
loses it he that he
$2; $8;
he
if he if
bets $4; if he
he
gains
more; he
has
no
lost
2+4=7,
many
has
gained $i
first
one
and
matter
how
him he
come
bets he
loses,the
he
was
gains
In
$i richer than
will
in the
beginning.
at
probably gain
the
run
at
first;but,
so
last,the
when money
of luck is
to
against him
have
enough
will
double, and
bet go.
much him
as
This
he
had
in the poorer
against
or
he
began;
that the
some
time is
other
a
it will be
to
happen. winning
a
It is true any
sum
there
can
always
pay,
of possibility
we
his upon
bank
and
thus
come
celebrated
paradox that,though he is
of his expectationcalculated
this
according to the
is
usual
consideration)
or
large. But,
same
whether
gambler plays
in this way if he
any
other, the
that
plays long
72
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
to have
enough
him
true utmost
as
he will be
to
an
sure
some
time
such The
a same
run
against thing
take is
exhaust insurance
to
fortune.
Let the
of
directors
the
pains
tell them
must
that, according
at
of
chances, the
to
time
a
come,
bring them
stop.
They
but the
may then
crisis in
by extraordinary means,
a
they thing
will will
again
weakened
sooner.
state, and
An knows
same
happen again
to
all the
deny this,because
is
he
expectationof
interest
his
company
upon
money)
out
of
expectationsleave consideration,
I must
not
of account
reverses
under
which
thing. However,
insurance is
on
be
un
understood
saying
than
sound,
more
other
kinds
of business. the
same
af
fairs rest
upon If
and probabilities,
man were
thing
be
is true
everywhere.
sure
immortal
he could
perfectly
he had
of
when his
everything
in which
trusted
betray
down,
as
at
good fortune, as
In
every
we
dynasty,
have
every
civilization does.
But with death
place of
this
death.
to
what,
death makes
so
without
death, would
to
some man.
happen
At
every
same
man,
must
happen
the
our
time,
the number
makes their of
of
mean
our
risks,of
inferences,
The very
result uncertain.
on
and probability is
reasoning rests
the
are
assumption
thus
indefinitely great.
We
landed
THE
DOCTRINE
OF
CHANCES
73
in the
same
as difficulty before,and
I
are our our
can
see
but
to
one
solu
tion of it.
It
seems
to
me
that
we
driven
this,that
shall not
must
interests
own
They
whole
must
not
stop at
fate,but
the
community.
must
This
community,
to all
or races
again, beings
intel
not
but be limited,
we can come
extend
of
with
whom
into
immediate
mediate
lectual this
not
seems
relation.
It must
reach, however
all bounds. the whole
vaguely, beyond
He who
geologicalepoch, beyond
sacrifice his
to me,
own
would
it
soul
to
save
world, is,as
all his
inferences,collectively.
Logic
To
is rooted
principle.
not
as
be logical men
are
be
selfish; and,
are a
in
point of
will from him
they fact,
ful
not
selfish
they
is
thought.
different money
The
prosecution
The he
are
of
one's
desires
thing
does
selfishness.
no
miser
cares
his selfish;
good,
and
shall become of
our
of it after his
death.
We
constantly speaking
of
are our
possessionson
no
destiny as
a
per
we
involved,in
We
some
way
that
discuss
with
of coal in
sun
hundreds
the
coolingpopular
in
some
conceive
man's
Now,
himself
for
should
It is
be
capable
he
heroism
self-sacrifice.
sufficient that
should
are
should
recognize
that
the
man's
inferences
it
and reallylogical,
should
consequently regard
74
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
as
being only
hero. So
so
far
as
valid he
as
they would
refers with
be
accepted by
to
the
far
thus
that
standard, he becomes
This
can
identified
mind. Sometimes
runs we
makes
personallyattain
a
heroism. he He will
The
soldier who be
to
scale
is not
wall
knows
cares
that for. in
probably
shot, but
if all the
that
all he
also knows
that
regi
for
we
feelinghe
identifies
himself,rush
In other
we cases
at
once,
taken.
man
only
as
imitate
The the
whom
have
sup is
posed
not
a
having
draw draw is
from from
two
packs, pack
that with
who from
if he
logician will
see, if he
as
the
red
mere,
habit,will
logicianenough, only
care
he his
cannot
own
be
logicalso long
but
to
he
is concerned should
fate,
was
that
that
man
who
equally for
sort
what
act most
happen
in all would
possible cases
draw from
of the the
could
the of
logi
red sub
cally,and
cards, and
pack
with
himself
such
limity,our
courage But
imitate his
man's
logicality.
identification of one's
requires a
those reasons, of and
conceived
an a
interests with
there exist
can no
unlimited
community.
will show human
Now,
that race,
later discussion
there
or
be
no
reasons,
for
any
intellectual race,
can
On
the other
hand, there
as
be
no
reason
the
6
whole
not
requirement
admit
an
should
have
certain
could show
I do
here
absolutelyunknowable.
the
case
Evidence
us
what
a
would
probably
time
be
after
any
though
not
might
be
assigned which
cover
evidence
might
cover,
evidence
would
it.
THE
DOCTRINE
OF
CHANCES
75
our
sentiments,there
a
is
nothing in
having
may
hope, or
calm any
and
last beyond
It may
assignable date.
strange
that
I in
seem
should
an
put
forward
three
sentiments, namely,
interest
indefinite community,
and
hope
in the unlimited
continuance
of
of intellec
tual
when
as indispensablerequirements activity, we
consider
that
as
logicdepends
it terminates
on
mere
escape in
doubt, which,
in
action,must
cause
begin
of
our
emotion, and
methods
of escap
doubt
fail
on
account
wonder
to
find
social
sentiment
two
in
reasoning?
necessary, that.
seem
As
sentiments and
I find of
they
only
as
supports
that
accessories
It interests
to
to notice
these three
as
sentiments trio of of
be pretty much
the
same
that
famous
Hope, which,
in the
estimation
St.
Paul, are
Old
but
nor
textbook
of the
logicof science,
the
latter is
to
regard
to
the
dispositionsof
ought
have.
Such
average per
as
the
number
of
of
in
habitants
per
mile, the
of
average
number per
deaths
convictions
indictment, or,
y, where
generallyspeaking, the
numbers
of x's per
the x's
76
are a
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
class of
things some
or
are
connected
with
another
class of
two
things,their ys,
of
relative numbers.
a
Of
the
classes
one
things
it is
to
a
relative number
may
of which
one
be called its
is made
that
per which
the numeration
may
be called
its correlate.
a
Probability is
the ratio of the
kind
of of them
relative number;
namely, it
certain
is
number with
arguments
to
of
genus
which
ments
carry of
truth
the
of argu of
that
genus, very
and
the
rules
calculation
this considera
are
are probabilities
easily derived
tion.
They
may
all be
extremely something
simple, and
of the RULE any
it is sometimes rules
know
elementary
I. Direct
of calculation
"
of chances.
Calculation.
say
To
calculate,directly,
the number
must
relative
number,
for instance
a
of pas
sengers
as
in the average
tripof
street-car, we
proceed
follows:
Count the
number
and
of passengers divide
for each of
all
these
are we
numbers,
by
There
cases
in which
to
simplified. Suppose
to
a
wish
know
of inhabitants
cannot two
dwelling
dwell
in New
York.
The
same
person
inhabit two
ings.
to
If he divide counted
a
his time
between
dwellingshe ought
In this
case we
be
half-inhabitant the
of each.
have New
only
York
to
divide the
of the
inhabitants
of the
by
number
dwellings,without
which inhabit each
each in
similar relate
proceeding belongs
to
will
apply
wherever
dividual
one
individual
correlate
exclu-
THE
DOCTRINE
OF
CHANCES
77
no x
sively. longs to
number
If
more
we
want
the number
one
of jc'sper y, and
be
than
y,
we
have
of x's of course,
y'sby
fail if
the number
y's. Such
method
num
would, of
applied to findingthe
per
average
passengers of travelers
trip.
We
could not
of
divide
by
since trips,
would
have
made
passages.
find the
a
that probability of
from
given class of
is
prem
A, ises,
necessary
given class
to ascertain
it conclusions, B, follow,
simply
what
are
proportionof
the times
in which
premises of
are
that class In
also true.
occurrence
other of both
words,
it is the A
number
of
cases
of the
and
B, divided by
of the event A.
of
cases
occurrence
RULE
II. Addition
of Relative
the
same
Numbers.
"
Given the
two
num
relative numbers
having
correlate, say
togetherper
a z
y.
same
If there y, the
is
sum
nothing which
of the
two
is at
once
an
and
to the
given
numbers
would
we
give
had
the
required
aver
number. age
given the
the
number
of
have,
and
average average
number
enemies, the
of these in
a man.
two
is the
number
it
of persons
interested
not
On
hand,
of
do
to
add
the
persons
constitutional number
diseases
military
exempted by
order
to
are
cause special
in militaryservice, in any
once.
number
or more
exempt
ways
at
way,
since many
78
This
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
rule
applies directlyto
two
probabilities, given
mutually exclusive
the
probabilitythat
will
events
happen
for
under
supposed
set of circumstances.
Given,
also the
two
or
then
sum
B, and
of these either B
to
probabilitythat
the
C,
then
the
is probabilities
probabilitythat
no
if A
then
at
C,
so
long
as
there
is
event
which
belongs
once
the
two
classes B
and
C.
RULE
pose that
III.
we
Multiplicationof
have
Relative
Numbers.
"
Sup
y;
a
given
the of
number
x
also the
concrete
relative number
oi
y;
example,
number
suppose
have
average
of children average
"
in families
livingin New
in the
two
York;
of
a
number the
of teeth
head
then
product
of
of these
numbers
give
York
in
average But
number
this mode
children's
of
teeth will
in
family.
reckoning
In could
only
apply
general under
not
two
restrictions.
same case
it would ferent
to
be
true
if the in that
child those
belong
who
to
dif
children have
an
belonged
several
or
families of
might
exceptionally
affect
more
large
average
small
number
number
teeth, which
teeth in
a
would
the than
of children's
family
a
it would In
of teeth in
not
the second
place, the
share the
be true
children
could
of children's different
a
evidently something
of teeth
from
number
belonging
to
child.
THE
DOCTRINE
OF
CHANCES
79
must
In order ceed
as
to
apply
we probabilities, we
pro
follows:
Suppose
have from
given
the of
the
proba
B
the conclusion
premise A,
representingas
that B
we
usual
classes
propositions.
an
Suppose
in which third
also knew
probabilityof
a
inference
a
should the
proposition of
we
kind, C,
Here, then,
this rule. We
have
the
materials the
applicationof
of of B's per
have, first,
should A.
have But
relative
A.
B
so
We
next
C's per
following from
selected that
propositionsbeing
any B
the prob
same
of C followingfrom ability
as
in
the
probabilityof
is deducible
C's
following from
an
of
those
B's
which be C It
was
from
A,
the
to
two
probabilities may
the of probability exist
as
order
same
give
restrictions B
before.
from follow A
probabilitythat propositionsof
follows class B
by
certain
the
ing from
several
different
propositionsof
these restrictions
the class A.
are as
But,
little
of very
a
principle
is,
true universally
that
is true, B
multipliedby
the
the
probabilitythat, if
A is true, C
to
is true, C
is,gives
probability that, if
is
a
There
is made.
rule supplementary
this,of which
the
"
great
use
It is not
universallyvalid,and
use
greatest
a
cau
of it
double
error;
cases
care,
to
use
it when fail to
serious of
and,
in
to
advantage
rule
it in upon
be employed.
This
depends
the fact
8o
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
that B
in very
many
cases
the
same
probabilitythat C
as
is true C
if is
the
probabilitythat
we
true
Suppose,
among
for the
example,
children
have
the
average
males
we
born
in New
York;
that
number born
at
of children in New
as a
in the winter
we
York.
Now,
may
assume
without
doubt,
no
least nice
closely
approximate
would be in
very
regard
to
portion of
is the New born the of of
a a same
males
as
among the
in New in
summer
proportion of
the
during a
year
were
put into
name
urn,
might multiply
be
the
name name
probabilitythat
male
child child born
any
drawn
would it would
to
a
by
the
probabilitythat
in order
name
be the
the
in summer, be the of
obtain
prob
in
abilitythat
summer.
it would
of
male
child born
the
The the
questions
probability,in
such
as so as
treatises
subject,have
urns, the the and
usually been
games of
from
cards, and
of events, the
as
question of
independence question of
whether
same
probabilityof C, probabilityunder
the
its
hypothesis A,
of
very the
simple; but, in
appli
cation
to probabilities
an
is often may
or
events
be considered
not.
independent
about
with cards
In
all calculations
the
cards
are
quite independent
point
fact the
THE
DOCTRINE
OF
CHANCES
81
seldom
are,
in
a
make cards
so
this have
true; thus, in
whist, in
same
which
the
are
suit,and
gathered
same
they will
lie more
or even
suit,
least
they
will
are
shuffled.
At
remain, in
consequence
are
of which
"
the
short
as suits/'
they
called
that very
of hands in
in which
to
are
unequally divided
calculation
a
regard
suits
"
than
the
would the
make
it to
be;
so
that,when
about the
there is
misdeal,where
very
cards,being
is
thrown
a common
table,get
that
it thoroughly shuffled,
next
saying
dealt out
a
there of
are
generallyshort
who
suits.
a
years
so
ago
friend
as
mine,
plays whist
of had
to
great deal,was
in
good
to
count
spades
dealt to him
been, if
calcula my fact
anything,shuffled better
there tion, should have
usual.
According
been
or
85 of these hands
four
in which
spades,but
of
in
point of
94,
to
showing
the
imperfectshuffling.
these
are
According
fundamental
tional one,
view
taken,
the An
only
addi
of chances.
different
conception of prob
if it be sound
is given in ability,
which treatises,
a
might
I
be made
the basis
of
theory
of
reasoning. Being, as
of it serves
bring us
theory; and
be
postponed
the
next to
number,
brought
this
the doctrine of
of chances
our
the reader's
early stage
studies
of the
logicof
FOURTH
PAPER
THE
PROBABILITY
OF
INDUCTION1
WE the
have
found
truth that
mat
every of the
argument
of
derives
its force
to
from it be
general
and
class
inferences
which of
longs;
probability
with them
is the
proportion
those of any
arguments
This of the
a
carrying
is most
truth
among
genus.
conveniently logicians.
an
expressed They
and
in
nomenclature fact
medieval
called that
expressed
from every such
a
by
premise
antecedent,
while
such termed say and of times that the in the
follows
that
it its
consequent;
almost
leading
principle,
is followed
(or
con
every) they
may
antecedent the
by
sequent,
guage,
we
consequence.
Using
this
lan
to
consequence and
is
consequent
in which deduced of
divided
by
the
times
are
antecedent
occurs.
definition and
following
rules
for
the
multiplication
probabilities:
Rule
rate
for
the
Addition
two
of Probabilities.
consequences
"
Given the
the
same
sepa
ante
probabilities of
and
two
having
Then of
cedent these
incompatible
numbers is the
consequents.
the
sum
of
probability
April, 1878.
82
the
consequence,
Popular
Science
Monthly,
THE
PROBABILITY
OF
INDUCTION
83
of those
con
that from
the
same
antecedent
one
or
other
sequents follows.
Rule
"
Given
"
the then
If A
B,"
and
"
If both
two
and
B,
then
C."
Then
the product
conse
of the quence,
these
"
numbers
then both B
is the and
probabilityof the
C."
If
A,
Special Rule
abilities.
"
Given
the
conse
quences
"
having
then
antecedents,
that these is
"
If
A,
then
B,"
are
and such
If
A,
C."
Suppose
consequences
that the
of probability
"
equal B,
to
the C."
probability
Then the
of the consequence,
and
is
then
product
of the two
given numbers
"
If
A,
then
both rules
and
may
C." examine
is the
working
to
of these
the
in regard probabilities
throwing
one a
dice. die?
What The
prob
abilityof throwing
here is the
a
six with
antecedent its
are
event
of As
throwing
die;
six
the
consequent,
of which
turning up
turned up the any up
one
six.
all sides,
with is
".
Suppose
two
dice The
are
thrown, what
is
of throwing probability
sixes?
same
probabilityof
both
are
either
thrown
when
one come
is thrown up
"
namely, -".
the other
probabilitythat
is also the does
or same
either will
as
six when
up
that of its
coming
six whether
the other
not.
our
The
will
happen together
X
product
of their several
or probabilities, "
".
What
84
is the that the
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
probabilityof throwing
first die will turn
as
deuce-ace?
ace
The the
probability
deuce sixes
"
the
same
up
second up
is
the the
namely, ^;
ace
will turn
two
up
"
and
the
deuce first
is likewise
^g-; these
ace;
events
first, ace;
are
deuce first,
"
incompatible. probabilitythat
is "
for addition up
ace
holds, and
the other
the
and
deuce
+ ^,
all
or
In this way
problems about
of dice
may
dice,etc., may
is
be solved.
very of
When
the
number
thrown be
supposed
as
large, making
with
(which
defined
the
to
art
our
facilitate numeration)
to
comes
aid
devices
reduce
the
difficulties.
The the is
conception of probabilityas
times
an
matter
occurrence
of
as fact,i.e.,
proportion of
in which
an
of
one
kind
accompanied by
Mr. Venn the
occurrence
of another view of
as
kind, is
by
materialistic been
the
subject.
often
regarded
to attach
being simply
a
belief which of
ought
to
proposition,and by
mixed the Venn the the
two
explaining the
Most
idea
is termed have
view. conceptualistic
writers
probabilityof
taken
state
event
as
the is
reason
we
have
to
believe
that it has
place,which
favorable
or
to
the
to
the
total number
of
cases
favorable
contrary,
THE
PROBABILITY
OF
INDUCTION
85
introduces in
and
all
equally possible.
unclear idea of
Except
cases
that
this
the
thoroughly
of the been
cases
equally possible
is
a
place
of has
equally frequent,
view. The
tolerable
statement
conceptualistic theory
De
expounded
the
by
Morgan
in
his
Formal and
Logic:
Probable. The the
Calculus
of
Inference,
Necessary
great
difference
refer it the of
a
between
the
two to
an
conceptualists
make
probability
ratio
over
while
the of
a
materialists
of
frequency
that
events
species
two
to
those
instead
genus
one.
species, thus
may
giving
made
it
to
terms
as
of
The
opposition
be
appear
follows:
that
we
Suppose
of all the
have
to
two
rules
solution
of inference, such
of which
to
that,
can
questions
the first
to
answers
the
both
be
in
applied,
correct
yields
the
to
correct
answers
3%,
the
and
answers
remaining
-ffa, and
T-";
while
second
to
yields
correct
answers
the
are
remaining
-^.
Suppose,
as
further,
their
two
rules the
entirely independent
answers
to
truth,
that
second
an
of also
the
questions
the
which
the
first
swers
and
-ffa of
and
questions
which the
the
re
first
incorrectly,
y^-g- of
also the the
answers
incorrectly
the first
maining
questions remaining
which
answers
correctly,and
the the first
answers
incorrectly. Then,
both
questions
"
to
solution
of which
rules
can
applied
86
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
both
answer
correctly
.-^
.
of
93 X
"
or
100 100
8l;
100'
"
100
the second
answers
and correctly
"
of
"
or
"
100
100
100
100
the second
answers
and incorrectly
"
of
100
"
or
"
"
100
100
100
and
both
answer
incorrectly
" . . .
of
7
"
X X
*9
:
or
100
100
100
100
Suppose,
now,
that, in reference
Then
to
any
question, both
give the
such
to
as
same are
answer.
to
be answered
answers
by
no),
same
those
as
which
answer
their
agree
the
both
correctlytogether with
93
ioo
those
x X
which
both
swer
or falsely,
x X
8l +
100
7
100
*9
100
of
all.
The
proportion of those
their
answers
which
both agree
answer
correctlyout
"
of those
to
which
X8i
ioo
is, therefore
93
IOQX
93 X8i
"f
93
ioo
X X
81
ioo ioo
7 x
X
19
ioo
(93 X 81)
(7 X 19).
both modes of We of
cases ex
here
conveniently
of
pression. Probability is
all the this
cases.
favorable
to
Instead
may
of
expressing our
use cases.
result in terms
"
of of be
true
ratio, we
to
make
of
another This
the
ratio
favorable
unfavorable of
an
last
ratio may of
a
event.
Then
inference
a
the chance
is f"
answer
by
the
of
and from
by
the
second when
is ^ ; and
of
correct
both,
they
agree,
THE
PROBABILITY
OF
INDUCTION
87
?LX_*L
or
81
x
93 7
a yielding singly
19
19
or
the
product
of the chances
of each
true
answer.
seen
that
chance
is
quantitywhich
An
a
may
have favor An
re-
magnitude,
is
an even
however
great.
or
event
in whose
chance,
an even
has
,
probabilityof ^.
do
argument
having
chance
can
nothing
toward
would
only multiply
of the
latter
by
Probabilityand
consequences, and
chance
are
relative the
premises;
of
an
but
we
may,
of
chance
event
absolutely,
of all argu
in reference
it which Taken
in the
given state
of
our
knowledge.
of
our an
in this has
an
event
intimate
degree of
than this
a
belief in it.
Belief is there
to
certainlysomething
of believing, feeling with all the chance the of
mere
feeling; yet
and
is
and the
feelingdoes
ought
deduced
vary from
thing believed, as
arguments.
varies with
as a
the chance
might, therefore,
for the proper is in
one
tensityof
which is
belief.
Among
quantitiesthere
there is a very very
never
great
Ab
intense.
solute certainty, or
an
infinite be
chance, can
be attained
by mortals, and
an
this may As
represented appropriatelyby
diminishes the
infinite belief.
the chance
feelingof
88
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
diminish,until
an
even
chance
not
is
reached,
either chance
it should
or
completely vanish
from
a
and
incline the
away
the
proposition. When
spring up and
and diminishes,
never
as intensity
the chance
almost
vanishes tend
(which
toward
quitedo) intensity.
any the
infinite
Now,
there
is
one
there is another
us
consideration for
our
must,
It of
admitted, fix
our
to this choice
thermometer.
the which
is that
belief
ought
to be
to proportional
weight
are
evidence,in
two
arguments
nor
en
tirelyindependent, neither
each
weakening
concur,
to
strengthening
a
other,ought, when
to
they
produce
belief
equal
would chances
the
sum
of the
either
the
have
seen
that
are
independent
concurrent
arguments
of their
to
be
the chance
combination,
the in
best express
be such
that
they
order
are
to
be added
the
multipliedin
to
produce
quantitywhich
the
corresponds to
the combined
chance.
Now,
tion.
generallaw
of
law. psychophysical
tion is which
logarithm of
external force
with this law the
It is
in harmony entirely be
as
that the
belief should
the
logarithm of
chance, this
which
THE
PROBABILITY
OF
INDUCTION
89
concurrent
The
of
independent
when
arguments
terms
very
simple
form
expressed
in
of the
in the
proposed
way. which
It is this: would be
the
sum
of all the
arguments
con,
pro, subtract
and
to
from
for arguments
we
the have
remainder
on
is the whole.
belief which
ought
men
the
This the
name
is
proceeding
which
to, under
of
balancing reasons.
an
considerations
constitute The
argument
in favor the
con
of
view. conceptualistic
kernel
of it is that in
our
joint probability of
with with is
all the
arguments
be
possession,
reference
the
to
any
fact,must
our
justdegree of
this
point
various
showing
consistency knowledge.
express
a
of the But
the rest of
at
to probability,
value
must all,
fact.
Let us,
It
upon
evidence.
of
a
then, consider
for
moment
we
the have
a
formation
be
lief of
probability. Suppose
which under
one a
large bag
at
of beans and
from hidden
has
been
secretly taken
We
are now
random
a
thimble.
to
form
probable singly
thrown
judgment
from the
bean, by drawing
each
one
others
to
bag
the
and
looking at them,
well
mixed
be
whole
up and
after each
the next
drawing.
We
drawing
is white
an
black.
there
is not
immense
preponderance of
like
an even
is
something
chance
the may
under altered
thimble
the next
is black. few
But
this When
judg
we
by
drawings.
90
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
have
drawn
ten
times, if 4, 5,
the chance about is
or
6, are
white, we
When
we
have have
more
confidence
a
that
even.
drawn have
sure
thousand
times, if
half
have We
been
now
white, we
feel
great confidence
in this result.
to
pretty
that, if
color of
we
were
make drawn
large number
from the
the
singlebeans
insure
bag, we
approxi
time
mately
upon
ourselves
in the
long run
which
by bettingeach
be
1,000
the
white, a
of
confidence
would
entirelywant drawings,
we
ing if,instead
had done
so
sampling
two.
us
the
bag by
as
by only
insure
Now,
the
whole and
as
of utility that
assur
probabilityis to
ance
in the
on
long run,
value
depends,
on
not
merely
the
of the
chance,
that
but
we
also
the
not
accuracy
to
of the the
same
evaluation,it feelingof
is
even. one
follows in
ought
to
have
belief In
reference
ex
all events
of which
state
the chance of
our
short, to
but
press
are
the proper
not belief,
on
number inferred
on our
two
first
on
depending
amount
the
proba
which knowl
the
of
knowledge
that made when many
probabilityis
is very the the
based.2
It is true
we
edge
from
when
precise,when
or,
as
have of the
drawings books,
bag,
in most of
examples
are
in the
the the
bag
absolutely known,
assumed
ex
the number
expresses its
uncertainty of the
to be changed by liability
further
become
or utterlyvanish. insignificant,
But,
be
even we
knowledge
than
is very the
at
this slight,
number
may
important
no
and probabilityitself;
when
have
knowledge
should
error
all this
completely
overwhelms
the
Strictly we
need of the
an
each
depending
on
the
probable
THE
PROBABILITY
OF
INDUCTION
91
no
sense
in is
unknown totally
fact has
event
even
no absolutely
ought
We
to
indefinite. entirely
thus
perceivethat
in that
the
some
quiteinadequate.
drew
an
which
we
from
our no was
black.
how
constitute
argument,
matter
bean
were
black,
second
independentargument
reenforcing
drawn
whole
should prove
was
black,our
bean
black would
the
attain justly
strength. But
white
we
suppose
we were
bean twenty-first
to be
and
had
that
to go on
drawing until we
beans
found that
ones.
drawn
1,010
We black
should conclude
was
that
first twenty
being
simply
an
of proportion
that it was Yet
an
to black
was
chance
bean
was
black.
accord
ing to
of the
the rule of
are
balancing reasons,
so
drawings
in favor
of black beans
one
many
under many
the thimble
drawings so
beans
hidden bean
againstit,an
same
of twenty
black
degree of
black,whatever
of
In the
probability, completeigno
to swerve
rance, where
or
away
from
the
is represented hypothesis, by
prob
ability ^
3
an
even
chance."
"
DE
MORGAN,
p. 182.
92
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
But
let
us
suppose
that
we
are
totallyignorant what
have. Let us,
colored
take
a
hair
of Saturn
then,
color-chart into
one
are
shown In
shading
such
a
by
chart
are a
the relative
of colors
area
arbitrary. perfectly
and closed line, ask
with
what
the
color
that
we
of
answer
the
of Saturn
area? be
be indeterminate
must
state
of
not
admit
indeterminate
the matter, the numerical
probabilities.As
answer
there
zero
is
no
certainty in
unity.
number
lies between
and
As
no
value
is afforded
must
be
determined
not
by
the
nature
scale of
probability
The
answer
by calculation
be
the data.
only therefore,
favor
nor
should of
neither this
true
area
oppose of any
area
hypothesis. What
one; and the
areas
is true
is true
a
it will other
equally be
two.
of
third
which each
embraces
But
the
probabilityfor
of the smaller
at
being one-half,
is absurd.
largershould be
least
unity,which
in
All
our
reasonings are
deductive;
2.
of two
kinds:
i.
ana Explicative,
or lytic,
Amplifiative,synthetic,or
In
(loosely
facts in
speaking)inductive.
are
down
in the
are,
every
inexhaustible
multitude,but they
often
THE
PROBABILITY
OF
INDUCTION
93
be
summed
up
in
one runs
simple propositionby
means
of take
some
regularitywhich
through
was a
them
man;
all. this
a
Thus,
the
no
implies (to go
every
fraction of
second
of his whole of
(or,if
a man.
you
them)
as a or
he
tree
did
a
not
at
one
instant
appear
and pear
at
another
dog;
he
did not
you
an
ap
in two him
places at
as
once;
were
could
put your
etc.
finger Now,
some
through
the facts
not
if he thus
optical image,
some
being
laid
down,
use
order
among
of
them,
made particularly
may
of stat
ing them,
us
to
throw
part
all of them
into
new
statement, the
attention.
of possibility
a
which
might have
escaped
of
an
Such
statement
analyticinference.
But syn
Of this sort
thetic summed in
sees
demonstrations. kind.
are
reasoning is
up in the
In
not
this among
case
the facts
stated
one
the
premises. They
the
next
our
different
and the
facts, as
that
times
are
concludes
These
only inferences
useful the
knowledge, however
be.
In any tive
problem
of
in
we probabilities,
have
we
given
the
rela
in
frequency
certain
events, and
perceive that
event
frequency being
of another makes
is
given
hidden
way.
This
stated
the
solution. is evi
This
mere is,therefore,
explicativereasoning, and
the
beyond
given
in
the
94
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
premises.
so
There any
is,therefore,a probabilityfor
on
manifest
a
in impossibility
tracingout
Most
syntheticconclusion.
a
treatises
very if
one
different of the
They
denizens heard there
was seen a
state, for
of of the
that
shores
Mediterranean, who
the
tides,had
gone
bay
of
Biscay,
know
had
the tide
rise; say
times,he could
to
there
probability equal
m
+ +
that
it would
rise the
next
time.
on
In
well-known
it is made
work
the
by Quetelet,much
foundation But
case
stress
is laid
this,and
of
reasoning.
we
its
never
origin if
seen
apply
it to the
has
o.
the
tide rise at
all;
that
is,if we
put
probabilitythat
in other
next
time
the
a
out
^,
or,
words,
there
involves of
conceptualistic principlethat
event.
chance it has of
urns
The
manner
in which number
been all
been
same urn
by considering a
number contains of
containing the
black.
and
balls,
part white
and
one
part
One
the
so
balls,another
black and the
black
rest
white,
urn
rest
an urn
white, and
is reached
on,
one
for each
pro balls.
portion,until
But
tween
containingonly black
for
the
drawing
any
analogy be
is the
must
such
arrangement
and
that of Nature
we
prin
be
ab
ciple that
considered
surd.
alternatives
as
of which
nothing
equally probable.
is
an
principleis
There
indefinite
variety of
ways
of enumerat-
THE
PROBABILITY
OF
INDUCTION
95
ing the
this way all but
different
on
the
applicationof
If there be any
would principle,
of
results.
as
enumerating
is not
so possibilities
to
make
them
equal, it
is the
that
from
which
we
derived,
granary
following: Suppose
black
urn were
immense
up; number relative
and
white filled
and
sup
by taking a fixed
random. The
of balls
this granary
quite at
number
one
of white three.
in
the In
be white, and
urns
black.
one-third
of which
white, and
was we
of those would
in which
black, the
should have
ball
be white.
shown
distribu
w
followingtable,where
a
stands
can,
white
ball and
black
one.
The
reader
if he
wwww.
wwwb. wwwb.
wwbw. wwbw.
wbww. wbww.
bwww. bwww.
In
the second
sets
group,
where
there is
one
b,
are
there 4, in
two
just alike; in 8,
and in the
we
there
the
time.
many
we
is because
supposed twice
as
as
bbbb.
bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. suppose
were
white
ones; of
had
supposed
times
as
many,
instead
i,
2,
4,
8,
16
sets
we
should
have
had
i,
10,
100,
1000,
10000
sets;
and would
two
on
hand,
in but the
one
had
the
numbers been
of black
even,
granary
set
in each
one
group.
urns
drawn
from
found
next
both
white, what
white?
would
two
probability
out
were
of the the
out
being
first two
were
the
be
drawn
in, then
the
same
probabilityof
the
being
white
whatever that
colors
same
been
supposed
just the
among
portion of
have
the
urns
has
those
first two
THE
PROBABILITY
OF
INDUCTION
97
and
black-black.
Thus,
would
of the third
be
whatever reader
that fre
are
of the
no were
balls
occur
with whether
equal they
Hence
on
that
difference
out
in the order
they
put in
have white
or
or no
not.
the the
already
other
drawn
influence
of probability
being
of
black.
the
Now,
of Nature
one
if there
so as
be any
to make
way them
one
enumerating
possibilities
which
should
make
combination
of the
a
elements
of Nature
we
as
probable
as
have
supposed,
that any
therefore, it,
appears
assumption
to
such that
thing
can
be from
done,
past
the
simply
the
conclusion
reasoning
In
to
future
experience is absolutelyworthless.
you
are assume
fact,
of
moment
that
we
that
the
chances even,
in favor the
that of which
about
in differ,
a
any
arithmetical
lar,from likelyto
m
in which heads In
penny
(known
to be turn
to
up
and
tails)should
be
up
times
successively.
is
a
short, it would
or
assume
Nature
pure
chaos,
chance
combination
one
of
fact to
see, there is no
of pure
observation
ing, it
and that
no
would real
we
suppose
all human
cognition illusory
be
to
knowledge possible.
have found the order
It would of
a
suppose
or
if
Nature pure
run
more
less
regularin
by
of luck which
98
we no
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
may
expect is
now
at
to
an
end.
Now,
it may
reason
be
is
we
have
scintilla of proof
in
unneces
sary
reference
to
that
which
can
is of
most
settled,which
who should
nobody
would
doubts
doubt,
in
so
he
deny
himself stultify
this
or
doing.
of talk
we
The
relative is
probabilityof
which
as we
that have
arrangement
a
Nature about
could draw tion
something
should
as
right to
if universes
were
plenty
in
a
blackberries,if
shake
to
see
put
out
a a
quantity of sample,
had
even
them
bag,
them
them what
well up,
propor
and
examine
of
them
one
arrangement
case,
a
and
what
proportion
would
another. contain of
But,
us, in
in that
to
higher
universe the
regard
whose
no
arrangements
conception
probabilitycould
have
applicability.
IV
We
have
examined
the
problem proposed by
into clear
the
con-
which, ceptualists,
Given
a
translated
language,
to
is this: of all
as
syntheticconclusion; required
of
know
out
things how
this absurd that
no
many
will
accord, to
we
any
with
an
conclusion;
attempt
definite
to
and
have
found
only
reduce
synthetic to
is
analyticreason,
But there
and
solution
possible.
this sub
is another
problem
a
in connection
state
with
ject.
to to
It is this: what
Given
certain all
of
things,required relating
know
proportion of
true
syntheticinferences
of
it will be there
within
given degree
this has
approximation.
for
Now,
is
no
about difficulty
problem (except
been much
its mathematical
complication); it
studied,
THE
PROBABILITY
OF
INDUCTION
99
and after
the
answer we we
is
well perfectly
to know to
known. rather
And
than
is not
this,
want want
our
much the
the other?
fact
we one
Why
will
are
know
probabilitythat the
That
not
with
conclusion?
implies merely
that the
interested
we
in all find
possibleworlds,and
in which
more
ourselves
to know
placed. Why
the fact? the
is it not
our
much
con
to
probabilitythat
One
other of these the of
with stated
the and
questions
and word
own
first above
the reader
clear
apprehension of their
of relative
always spoken
see
frequency, they
was
failed to
the
that
what
they wanted
with
an
not
to
follow
along
to
syntheticprocedure
analytic one,
in order the
find the
to
contrary,
begin
and
to
the it
synthetic
uses
inference
aims,
in order
follow
see
the
facts
for
premises
as
the
of probability
their
being such
will As
we
yield the
cannot
truth. have
an urn
with
an
infinite number
of
of
us
balls
to
represent the
one
inexhaustibleness
Nature, being
that of
are
let
suppose back
no
with the
urn
finite after
number,
drawn
each
ball
so
thrown
into
being
out,
ball four
there
three drawn.
is is
of them.
Suppose
and
one
out
white
Then quency
the rest
table the
on
black,
pages
that
balls
different
seen
these
balls
might
be drawn. four
we
It will be
that if the
should urn, 32
1
judge by these
times
we
balls of the
proportion in
24
out
of 81
should
find it ^, and
times
out
of 8
should
find it
ioo
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
i, the
would
some
truth being $.
To
extend the
high numbers
have found would balls
ingenious ways
It is found
5
of
reckoning
the
true
be.
that,if
are
proportion of
the
"
is p, and
balls
drawn,
then
error
of the
proportion
obtained
by
the induction
will be
within
0.477
\l
9 times
out
of
10
within
1.163
\/" \l
"
99
times
out
of
ioo
within
1.821
999
times
out
of 1,000
within
2.328 V/-^
"
9,999
times
out
of 10,000
within
2.751
%/"
"
9,999,999,999
times
out
of 10,000,000,000
within
4.77
\l
The the
use
of this may of
be
by
an
example.
By
census
1870, it appears
white colored children children The
a ioo.
proportion of
year
males
among while
was or or
native among
old
was
0.5082,
age
the
proportion
is 0.0105,
to
only 0.4977.
about
would white
one
difference
between
these
in
Can
this be
attributed
a
chance,
always
children
great number
of
circumstances? is also
near
Here
p may
of
be taken
white
at
i;
hence
2p (i"p)
was
-J.
The
number hence
a6oo66Q-
children
whose
counted
1,000,000; is about
root
is about
as
multipliedby
in the ratio
0.477
gives about
0.0003
THE
PROBABILITY
OF
INDUCTION
101
'ofmales
The
among of
the whites
as
obtained
was
from
the induction.
150,000, which
number
black
children
about We
see
gives 0.0008
for the
ten
probable error.
the
sum our
discrepancy is
would
times
of
such
once
result
out
happen, according
censuses,
to
of
10,000,000,000 It may
in the
long
run.
be remarked
that when
prob
small,
were
we
large or
suppose certain
reasoning realityone
to
is
more
secure.
Thus,
100
white
ball in
in
100
and
judge of
the number
no
by
drawings.
be
The
prob
of
white
ball would
""""$] that
white
ball would of
be
^""5', that
drawing
be
Thus
would
of
be
yf^;
five
xJ^;
we
drawing
would
should
than
we
tain of not
being
in
error
by
in
one
more sense
one
It appears,
we
then, that
can, and
in another
cannot, determine
I
reason
the
probabilityof syntheticinference.
When
in this way: in
a a
Ninety-nine Cretans
But
hundred
are
liars;
Epimenides
is
Cretan;
is
a
Therefore,Epimenides
I know times in that
100.
liar:
to
"
reasoning similar
But when I
carry
truth 99
reason
opposite direction:
and
Deucalion, of;
Epi
can
think
these
all atrocious
much
liars,
must
Therefore,pretty
I do
not
have
been
liars;
such
reasoning would
102
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
carry that
me some
right. On
the
other
hand,
what
I do
must
know
is
have
been
and liars,
to
proportioncan
from five
or
be
probably approximated
Even in the
by
an case
worst
of probability the
inference,that
ratio than the
so
Cretans be in
are error
the liars,
ob
So
would I
probably
not
by
more case
".
inference there
pretty much
be
a
whether I do
not
not
specialimprobability in
know.
Late
Kant
a
asked
the ques
"
tion,
"
judgments synthetical
he
meant
prioripossible?
as
judgments By synthetical
fact and
are
such
assert
positive
in
not
mere
affairs which
of
arrangement;
short,
judgments of
and which
the kind
analytic reasoning
he meant
event
yield. By
priori
in
judgments
space,
such has
can a
as
objectsare
every
to
according
Not
so
him
never
experience.
the
was mere
much of
by
his
answer
this
question as by
of that time
asking
tered
it,the
current
philosophy
a new
shat
and
destroyed, and
But before
epoch
in its
history was
to
begun.
asked
asking
that
"
question he ought
How
are
have
the
more
general
one,
"
any
a
synthetical
man can
judgments
serve one
at
all
possible?
How
is it that pronounce
ob
con
fact another
and
straightway
judgment
in the
cerning
different fact
not
involved
first?
THE
PROBABILITY
OF
INDUCTION
103
Such
sense can
reasoning,as
of it add Abbe the
to
we
have
no
seen,
has, at
phrase,
our
definite
knowledge?
says it is
a
This
strange paradox;
that
on a
the
Gratry
is
an
and miracle,
every
true
induction
immediate
inspirationfrom
more
high.4
than
some
many
pedantic proba
I
re
solve the
the
question by
of
an
juggle with
what
not.
with bilities,
forms it shows it
syllogism,or
spect it because
the
cause
appreciation of adequate
"
the
depth of
and
problem, because
it is
assigns an
connected
cause,
true
be
intimately
with
a
as
the of
account
should At
an
be
same
"
general philosophy
do
not
the
universe.
the
time, I
explanation should
a
tell how
seems
thing is done,
be
an
and
to
as
sert
perpetual miracle
of
to
abandonment
of all
hope
justification.
answer
It will be gave
to
which
a.
Kant
his
question
if extended
about
to
syntheticaljudgments
the
priori
will appear
ments ments true
in
a
general. prioriare
That
answer
possiblebecause
in the conditions
universally
Let
us
is involved
to
a
experience.
apply this
a
I take
from
bag
handful
beans
beans; they
in the the
are
all
purple, and
How
can
I infer I do
that
all the
bag
are
purple.
that?
Why,
upon
that principle
whatever
is univer
sallytrue
4
of my
The
experience(which
same
is here
the appearance
performance
us
Logique.
the
is true, according to
not
him, of every
does the
not
of
but differentiation,
tell
whether
BO
it is much
supernatural
assistance
former
process
the easier.
104
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
of
these
different
The
beans)
condition
were
in the
condition
of
experience.
special experience is
that
taken
bag.
true
According
of all the
Kant's
beans
some
drawn
bag
must
explanation in
This is
a
of peculiarity
contents
the
bag.
statement satisfactory
of the deductive
of principle
or a
induction.
When
we
draw
our analyticconclusion,
rule of inference
are
is that facts of in
a
certain
generalcharacter
cases
either
invariablyor
certain
proportion of
accompanied by
our
facts of another
general character.
we class,
Then
premise being a
with of
a
infer with
certainty or
the existence for
appropriate degree
second
a
of
probability
the When
assume
fact of the is of
we
class.
But
rule
we
syntheticinference
a
different
kind.
sample
bag
some
of beans beans
do
not
in the least
that
the fact of
or even
the
so.
necessity
On
the
the
of probability
being
treatingprobabili
deductive
to
ties,which
ment
reallyamounts
simply
the
treat
of
a
them, when
rightlycarried
has
out
leads
even
that
syntheticinference
in other is words is
just an
chance The
favor,or
of
one
worthless. absolutely
bean
entirely independent of
is founded upon
a
that of another.
inference synthetic
not
ner
classification of facts,
the
man
accordingto
of
their
obtainingthem.
in
a
is,that
number
or
of facts less
re
obtained semble
ences
given
way
general more
same
other whose
facts obtained
conditions
are
in the the
same
way;
or,
experi
same
will have
the
general characters.
THE
PROBABILITY
OF
INDUCTION
i
105
In
the
in
former
case,
to
we
know
that
premises
ones
precisely yield
times. under
true
similar
form
those in
of
a
the
given
will
of
conclusions,
the
latter
just
we
once
calculable
that
number
In
case,
only
to
know the
premises
ones
obtained
circumstances themselves
similar
given
will
(though
true
perhaps
at
very in
a
different)
calculable
that
yield
of
conclusions,
We may inference
ex
least
press
we
once
number in of the
times. of
this know
by
the but
saying
case
probability
in the of
case
our
conclusion
premises
we
are
true),
the
of
synthetic
of
our
only
As
must
know
degree
trustworthiness
from all the human
proceeding.
we
all
knowledge
infer
comes
synthetic certainty by
must
inference,
consists
equally
our
that that
merely knowledge
have led
in
knowing
been
processes such
as
which
our
has
true
derived
are
generally
to
conclusions.
a
Though
reduced hold that
to
synthetic
deduction,
inference
cannot
by
of from
any
means
be will
yet
run
that be of
the
rule
induction the
good
in
the is
long
may
principle
to
reality
only
the
object
would the
opinion
belief
which
sufficient
tends
to
investigation
fix itself under with
lead. influence
inquiry
one
of
the
facts
which
logic
sets
FIFTH
PAPER
THE
ORDER
OF
NATURE1
ANY
must
even
proposition
touch in
more
whatever
or
concerning
the In
order
our
of
Nature
less upon
religion.
more
day, belief,
upon
these of found
matters,
facts. in the and
depends
If
a
and and
must
to
more
the order
cause
remarkable
there has
universal be
some
universe,
science for the
this
regularity,
consider One
what
way
hy
of the is
account
phenomenon.
be power. of
to
suppose But if
that there
to
ordered the
by
superior
nothing
nor
in the
universal
of
subjection
those laws
phenomena
laws,
in
character
themselves goes
(as being
to
prove
to
existence
of
of
the
universe, it is hardly
of evidence will from
anticipated weigh
very
that much
sort
be
found
minds
emancipated
the
tyr
anny
truly
of that
as
be
said
that
even
an
abso
question
there
are
could faiths
altogether
in
religion, inasmuch
much
which,
those
they
differ which
from
our
own,
we
recognize
to
characters and
Science
make
them
worthy
not
be
called
an
religions,
1
which,
Monthly,
nevertheless, do
June,
106
postulate
Popular
1878.
THE
ORDER
OF
NATURE
107
Deity. actuallyexisting
had the most
numerous on
That
one,
no
for
instance, which
the least
the
has
and
by
means
intelligent
his
a
followingof
any
earth,teaches
away
that
Divinity in
the world
from
in
of
profound
and
eternal
sleep,which
really does by
that
not
differ from
or
name
not.
No
mind
who
has that
the
writingsof
as
M.
as
Vacherot
can
well
deny
the
is religion
earnest
be.
He
worships
that the
Perfect,the Supreme
notion In
to
Ideal;
is
re
but
he
conceives
to
very
of
the
Ideal
pugnant
it is
fact,M.
that
Vacherot
finds
agreeable
an
his
reason
assert
non-existence
as
essential and
character found
of it
the
perfect, just
St.
Anselm
Descartes
agreeable to
theirs to assert
one
opposite.
I confess
that there is
to me
respect in
congruous which
seems positions
more a
attitude religious
than
as
that
soon
of
as
theology
upon
to
evidences;
either Anselm
for
or
the and
Deity presents
manifests of the his
Vacherot,
it be in
a
whether gloriousattributes,
or
night
and
day,
either his
of
them
at
recognizes his
once;
God,
sinks
upon
knees
whereas
theologian of
evidences
that after
the divine
apparitionshall
his
cre
identifyhimself,and
dentials among and the
only
the
having
scrutinized his
weighed
of probabilities he
being
found his be
but could
those find
which
out
in
belong
any
real
thing.
we
Religion.]
108
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
universe,any
mannerism
in the
ways
of
Nature,
any
a
law
dis
our
universallyvalid, such
to
us
singularassistance
it would deserve On
a
in all
reasoning, that
of be the shown every
place almost
the other
sort
at
head
can
principlesof logic.
that there is
hand,
to
nothing
of the
find
out, but
range, of
a
that
discoverable
of
regularityis
of
limited
sort
this
again
will be
conception we
of the ensemble of
ought
of
to
universe,how
to
think in the
things,is
fundamental
problem
theory
reasoning.
ii
It is the
was
of scientific ago, of
to
men
now, for
as
it the
twenty-three
of the the
years
account
formation which
atoms.
solar
system and
the
the
cluster
galaxy, by
fortuitous
concourse
how
immense of
book
its de
on
the
system
world
mention pas is
was
author, replied,very
cette
logically, Je
But,
any in
more
n'avais
besoin
hypothese-la."
in the
truth, there
than be
nothing
in this
atheistical
answer.
theory,
is sup of
there
Matter
posed
to
composed
and
exert
of molecules certain
which
obey
upon is
the laws
mechanics
and
attractions
one no
another;
attempt
to
it is to these
there
account
for)
be
of the
solar
system
would
due,
one
to hazard.
maintained
that
the
universe
is
of
the
abundantly
THE
ORDER
OF
NATURE
109
refuted
him.
a
"
How
often/'
had
says
Archbishop
a
Tillotson,
a
"might
man,
after he
out
jumbled
set
of letters in
upon
the
yea, may
or
ground before
so a
they would
make be
as
"
exact
poem, And
much
as
good easily
The
in prose ! chance
as
not
little book
by
world
we
here
to
be
so
that
no
in
live would
of
in which
laws,
characters
so a no
different
a
dent;
show and
that,should
sample
of objects ever
only be by accident,
ever come
could
we
be
established.
to
Whatever
to
as
may much
in
regard
the
order
of the
universe,thus
may
a
be
mere
regarded
chance-
that solidlyestablished,
the world
is not
medley.
But another
whether
the world
When
makes
we
an
exact
poem the
are
or
not, is
at
question.
look the
up
at
heavens
not not
night, we splashed on
to
readily perceive
to
that
stars
simply
seem
the
celestial
vault; but
there
does
be
any
precise system
our
in their
arrangement
the
either.
It of
will be
worth
degree
in the
we
begin,let
us
ask
a
whether
live in is any
would
more
orderly than
purely
chance-
world
be.
law of
Nature,
may of
be stated
in the
a non-
Every
is B
";
as, every
ray
light is
the
line,every
This which
body
is the is not
is accelerated
same as
toward
"
earth's
not
center, etc.
exist any A
to
say, is
no
There
does ray;
";
there
curved
there
no
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
is
no
body
not
accelerated
in the
toward
non-occurrence
the
earth;
so
that
the of
a
uniformity consists
certain bination every
acters
case
combination of
of characters with
(in this
com
being A
of the
non-occurrence a
combination Nature.
of char
would the
constitute is
uniformityin
found suppose with
Thus,
with
sup the
pose
qualityA
for
never
quality C:
never
example,
quality of idiocy is
of
found
in combination Then
having
A
well-
developed brain. C,
or
nothing of
A
the sort
is of the sort
everythingof
idiot has
an
the sort
(or say,
some
every
thing universallytrue
world. Thus
we see
A's, is
world
uniformityin
there
were
the
no
in that,
where
of characters would
must
be
excluded,but
But
two
every
combination identical
exist in differ in
object.
of their
objectsnot
characters, though
a
it be
only in
the character
of
same
being in
such-and-such
combination
of characters
be found
in two every of if
different
chance-world
combination
every there
involving either
would five them
the
to
negative
character
were
belong
thing. Thus,
a
but
simple characters
in such and
world,4we negatives
be
con
might
3
denote
the much
or
by A, B, C, D, E,
purpose,
as
their
For
as
present
a
the the
not
negative of positive,for
say
a a
character
is to
may
sidered be
character
uniformity
can
either drawn
affirmative
negative.
I do
that
no
distinction
be
between
*
positive and
negative uniformities.
their
241
be
out 243
being 5 simple characters, with in various ways to make so as compounded counting the
or
There
negatives,they
characters make
could
in all,with up
characters
existence
and
which non-existence,
3?
THE
ORDER
OF
NATURE
in
by
a,
b, c, d, e; and
of
to
then, as
there
would
be
or
32
different
combinations in reference
these of
each
them,
that world
would
as
have
just 32
objects
table:
in
it, their
characters
being
in
the
following
TABLE ABCDE ABCDe ABCdE ABCde ABcDE ABcDe ABcdE ABcde For AbCDE AbCDe AbCdE AbCde AbcDE AbcDe AbcdE Abcde
abCDE
abCDe abCdE
abCde
abcDE
abcDe
abcdE abcde
example,
if the
five
primary
characters would be
hard,
bright, there
object hard,
was
one qualities,
which
sweet, fragrant,and
but
not
bright; one
not
which
one nor
bright,but
green; green
which
hard, sweet,
so on
and
but fragrant,
neither
bright;
and
through
a
is what
thoroughly chance-world
could be
are
would
more
be
like,
certainlynothing
a
imagined poured
the
systematic.
of
a
quantity
of
letters is due
out
bag,
that
the the
appearance
of disorder
are
to
phenomena
are
of space and
supposed,
a
to
be
of
certain
the
forma
are
letters.
The
result
is that
elements
ii2
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
orderly
we
and
some
are
which disorderly,
world.
is
observe
a
in the
actual
in Tillotson,
on
passage
of which
quoted, goes
which
to
ask,
sent up
How
out
long
from down fall
might
20,000
should
be
remote
and
they
would
Salisbury Plains,and
of
an
into rank
and
order
army?
than how
And the
yet
in
easy
to
be
imagined
should
blind
a
parts of matter
This are,
as
rendezvous in the
them
world."
men
true, but
can
actual
up
cer
world
in any
the blind
see, not
drawn
a
particularorder
of order is not
so so as
at
And,
in
short,while
seem
exists in the it
world, it would
for
that
orderly as
a
instance,
be.
much
we can
world
would
But
we
never
get
of
a
to
of this
question until
5
take I
account
now
highly-important logicalprinciple
to
enounce.
which any in
to
"
proceed
lot of
matter
This have
principleis
some
that
or plurality common
objectswhatever
how
character is
(no
and
"
which insignificant)
peculiar
word include
them character
not
shared is taken
by
anything
a
else.
as
The
to
here
in such
as
sense
negative characters,such
well
as
their
theorem, B,
have
I will show in
common,
what
not
are
character shared
any
two
things,A
else.
by anything
things, A thingsby
named
5
and the
B,
each
distinguished from
characters which
to
all other
may
possessionof
and B-ness.
certain
be
A-ness
Corresponding
by
Mr.
these
Morgan.
posi-
This
principlewas,
De
THE
ORDER
OF
NATURE
113
tive is
are characters,
the
negativecharacters un-A-ness,which
and
un-B-ness,which
two
is possessedby
are
These and
characters
this union
a com
united
in
everythingexcept
un-A-ness which may and
B;
and
of the characters
un-B-ness
makes
pound
is not
character
be termed
or
A-B-lessness.
it is
This
possessedby
either A
B,
but
everythingelse.
This
like character,
every
B,
been
and
by nothing else.
true
It is obvious
shown
of two
things is Q.
E. D. In any
mutatis
mutandis, true
of any
number
of
things.
world
each
must
be
character
a
to peculiar
objects. If,as
the
same same
matter
of
nomenclature,characters only
say
peculiarto
group
be
regarded as
then
we
character,
character
a
may
one precisely
for each
possible group
five
objects. Thus,
Then 31
suppose
world
a
to contain
things,a, P, y, d, e.
for each up 32
or
it will have
separate character
existence
of the
groups
(with non-
making
25) shown
II.
in the
table: following
TABLE
ap
apy
apyd
apye
apyde
ae
ay5
aye
ayde
py
Pyde
U4
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
This
shows of
a
that
contradiction for in
or a
is involved world of 32
in the
very
idea6
stead
seen
chance-world,
things,in
we
of there
243
as characters,
have
chance-world
in
fact,be
would
no
less than
not
232,or
4,294,967,296 characters,
would
have all
which
be
all
independent, but
another.
possible relations
We further
see
with that
one so
long
as
we
regard
characters
regard
a
to their relative
more or
importance, etc.,
is
no
of possibility
less of
degree
of orderli
in the
world, the
characters in those
whole
system
between relationship
mere
the different
being given by
facts which is any
are
logic;that is,
as
being implied
soon as we
admitted tacitly
admit
to
such
In is
to
order
descend
consider
view, it
relative In
to requisite
of of
things as
the
perceptionsand
active
livingbeings.
in which
in which to
world
one
there
none
be
no
uniformities,let
should
to
us
suppose
uniformities
have
us.
reference
In the
a
characters
or interesting
important
first
place, there
The the
to
be
nothing to puzzle us
of which qualities the
ones
in such
world.
small
senses
would
would
directlymeet
afford
us.
be
which
the
key
every uni
thing which
verse
possibly
such would
an
interest
whole
would
air of system be
perfect regu
In the
next
nothing
no
to
action
of ours, and in
event
a
of
Nature, would
We
have be
important
6
consequences
idea but
such
world.
so
should
Not
in every
only in the
one
formulated.
THE
ORDER
OF
NATURE
115
from
all
to
and responsibility,
or
there would
be
to
or
to do
but
Thus the
enjoy
there
suffer whatever be
happened
stimulate
along.
either
would
or
nothing to
we
develop
should
mind
nor
the We
will,and
should
our
consequently
no
neither act
that any
think.
on we a
have
memory, Even
a
because
if
we
depends
senses,
law
of
organization.
toward
had
should
be situated
such
world
one,
as precisely
inanimate suppose
objects are
that these
toward
the present
an
provided
we
objects have
consciousness
abso
lutely transitoryand
memory
"
instantaneous is
a
without of
supposition which
be
a no
mere
mode We
our
speech,
there world
van a
consciousness of chance
an
at
all.
may, actual
fore,say
viewed
that
world
is
simply
animal
from
the
standpoint of
at
the very
of intelligence.The ishing-point
actual world
The
an
is almost
chance-medley
the his uniformities
to
of
polyp.
for
interest which
measures
have
animal
place in
the scale of
can
intelligence.
made
out
Thus, nothing
Nature
in
be the
from of
a a
the
orderliness
unless proves
of
regard
that
an
to
existence
of
God,
it be the
maintained existence of
the
existence
one.
finite mind
infinite
in
In
we
examined We found
the
nature
of
a
inductive
process
are
synthetic reasoning.
A number within in
a a
it to of
at
a
be
of
sampling.
of that
specimens
but class,
class
random.
These
great number
lot would
If, now,
that likely
second
116
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
the
on
first in the
majority
an
of these
respects,
in
we
might base
one
inference
such
an
regard
to any
of
these
inference would
vast
would
neither
be
of the nature
nor induction,
it
(except in special
of
cases)
be
valid, because
in the first
the
majority
would
points
of
agreement
sample
well death
as
drawn
generally be
illustrate
as entirelyaccidental,
To insignificant.
I this,
take
the ages
at
poets given in
Wheeler's
are:
45.
These
1.
the
followingcharacters
in
common:
The
of the two
a
digitscomposing
remainder the power
a
the
num
ber, divided
2.
of
one.
The
first and
sum
by the
of
one.
second,
3. The one,
divided of the
of each
including
is divisible
to
by
see
It is easy
ments
of
this sort of
quite
endless. because
a
that,instead
alence
in
consideringa sample,
we
character
the
designate
for its
character
importance,
two
other drawn
point of interest.
at
Then
considerable agree
samples
random
are
extremely likely to
THE
ORDER
OF
NATURE
117
approximatelyin regard
of
a
to
the
proportion
of
a
occurrences
character
so
chosen.
has
The
inference that
the
same
previously
designated character
occurrence
nearly
a
frequency of
a
in the
at random
whole
out
of
sample
drawn
acter
of that class
be
not
previouslydesignated,then
to
sample
to
it is found it may be
be
prevalent can
the whole if
only
serve
suggest that
may
prevalent in
as an a
class.
we
We
"
consider inference
to test
inference
second
please
must
an
but possibility;
sample
be drawn
question of
of
whether
the character
a a
Instead
designating beforehand
we
in
reference
nate
to which
use
will examine
same
sample, we
desig
two, and
the
sample
to determine
the relative
two
frequencies of both.
inferences
at
This
will be
we
making
are we
inductive
that
once;
and,
of course,
both
either
acters
will
yield correct
conclusions do
so.
than
be that char
separatelywould
is true of any
What number.
is true
of two the
limited
Now,
number
for
us
of characters in reference
which
to
have
any
considerable
more sure
interest
any
class of As
we
objects is
shall these be
moderate
to
than any
might sample
be
supposed.
examine may
with
not
reference
to
as
characters,they
as
be
regarded
mined infer
exactly
amounts
predesignated, but
to
predeter
we
(which
that
we
the
same
thing);
class that
and
may
re so
the
spects if
secure an
please,remembering only
as
inference
been
if the
fixed upon
beforehand.
demonstration
of this
theory
of induction
rests
upon
u8
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
follows
methods
matters
which the
are
accepted by all
display in
other
particular knowledge
to
force of mind
which
qualifythem
judge
of this.
never
The
to
occurred
to any
of the
writers The
was
who
most
have
undertaken
opinion in
Mr.
is
"
one
which
much
John Stuart
namely,
that of
induction Nature
for its
on
validityupon principlethat
the what
uniformity happens
that
a
is,
suf
the
once
will,under
again
often
as
the
same
recur.
The
application
to
fact
things belong
the
same
constitutes is
the
the
induction
What
good, provided
once a
similarityis
of
"
sufficient."
happens
to
is, that
number
these
may
found
have
certain
as
character; what
often
as
be
the
circumstances
to
the
same
class
character. induction
some
analysis of
has, I
of which
venture
to
think, va
useful hand
to
to imperfections,
it may I put
be my
call attention.
a
In
out
the
a
first
place, when
of
in
bag
and
draw
handful
quarters of them
all in the bag
same are
that
three-quartersof obviously of
the the
inference
any
kind
as
if I had
largerproportion,or
had assumed that
whole,
resented But
of the
it rep
of the contents
seems
of the
to
bag.
the
the
adapted
THE
ORDER
OF
NATURE
119
of explanation
this proportionateinduction,where of
the
con
being
that
certain
event
uniformly
it
certain
uniformly
cases. as a
occur,
only happens
that the whole the
in
certain
may be the
proportion of
be
It is true
sample
may
regarded
singleobject, and
formula
inference
brought
conclusion
under
to
the
be that any
similar
similar
the
proportion among
induction
a as
its constituents.
on a
this is to treat
if it rested of its
singleinstance,which
gives
very
false idea
probability.
the
In the second
place,if
uniformity of Nature
should whose Mr. have
no
were
sole warrant
one
of
induction,we
to
a
right to
we
in
regard
about. white
character
constancy
says
nothing
none
Accordingly,
swans were
Mill
to
that, though
for thou white known
but
known
Europeans
all
swans was
sands
"
of years,
not
a was
that
were
was
it
not
that
color
so
usual
generic
But
character
(it,in fact,not
demon
a
being
strable gree
by
that
any
an
means).
inductive
you
it is
mathematically
have
as
inference
may
high
any
de
of
probabilityas
please independent of
of the character
ante
cedent
knowledge
it
was
inferred.
Before
of
known
was
color is not
genera, all
there
certainly a considerable
white. led to
to
that
swans
were
But
the
further of
the
genera
of
animals
the
induction A
non-uni
formity
in
regard
color.
deductive
gone
application of
far to of
swans
have
overcome
whiteness
before
120
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
the black
specieswas
to
discovered.
When
we or
do
know
any of
to
thing in regard
a
the
general constancy
inconstancy
general knowledge
the it
particularclass
to
to
or
which
any
relates, though
of the
to
serves
increase
diminish
induction, particular
every
deductive
inductive.
are
place,to happen
say
that inductions
true
"
because
or, what
events
same
in similar
circumstances in
thing,because
be similar
objects similar
in others
"
some
respects
those in
likely to
is to
overlook
which When of
really are
we
essential to the
all the
one
validityof
take
characters another
we
into account,
pair
objects resemble
any other for
a
in
just as
many
to such
as particulars
pair.
us
If
limit ourselves
characters
as
have
any
importance, interest,or
may be
obviousness, then
but
synthetic conclusion
that
at
drawn,
we
only
have
on
the
specimens by
from
which
judge
to
random
a
regard
as
which
we
are
form
judgment,
The
selected has
belonging to
force when
before
any the
induction has
are
only
been the in of of
its full
concerned These
designated
essentials of
examining
sample.
are
they
not
recognized uniformity
the doctrine is not
a
attributingthe
Nature. The
induction of
to
the
induction
by
probabilities, metaphysical
of
mere
formula,
from
which
all the
rules
synthetic
mathe
a
reasoning can
matical cogency.
be
deduced But
systematicallyand
of the matter
with
the account
by
prin-
THE
ORDER
OF
NATURE
121
if it were
in other
respects satisfactory,
quite as much
of induc those who
con
before
in
not
regard
to
the proper
method
It does this
surprise me,
have
therefore,that
adopt
duct
theory
given
erroneous
of
reasoning,nor by
Mr.
examples
models
of
put forward
what
as edition,
inductions
should
so
be, proved
in the
light of
that One
an
further had
scientific progress
to be
they
replacedby
that Mr.
others Mill
would induction
have
on
supposed
this
might
have
based
circumstance, especiallyas
the conclusion been
a
it is his avowed
turns out
principle false,it
that, if
cannot
of
an
induction
have
any
good
induction.
seem
Nevertheless,neither
been led to suspect, which he
he
nor
of his scholars
to have
in the
the the
framework mind in
at
devised
from
securely supporting
to
the known
answer
the
unknown, although
well
as
it did not
quite so
had
been
expected.
IV
we
have
drawn
any
"
such,
chil
as instance,
that
one-half
of male
"
it is
sufficiently prolonged, a
may
sort
predicate
be affirmed
to universally;
of births
are
of male
truth
prin
is
a
theorem of
that
peculiarto
every
possiblegroup
objects. The
122
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
form
event
in which
must
the
a
every
have
But, though
that of there
to
a
there which
to
exists is
cause
for
every
event, and
if
kind
capable
us
of the in
be
nothing
among
guide
to
have
any
hunt
all the
events
sex
without
of
child
might equally be
the
supposed
what then made. That that any
we was
to
depend
on
on
the the
of configuration
on
planets,on
else
"
going
at
antipodes,or
have
no
anything
of
ever
the
discovery would
chance
getting
ever
do
discover whatever
no
the is
precise causes
of
things,
excep
induction
we
absolutely without
assume.
is tion, it is that
an
what easy
have
rightto
the
an
On
the
contrary,
theorem
every of
empirical rule
our
exception.7
present
an
certain
inductions
which
approach
are
to
so universality
if
we
to
sup
pose
that
they
think The and first
a
not
truths, we
reached
cannot
possibly
accident. of time
that
most
they
merely by
are
remarkable With
of this kind
to
those
space.
space, manner,
Bishop
that
Berkeley
it
was
showed, in
seen,
very
a
conclusive
not
thing
on
but
the
dimension
of space, in
a
surface.
But,
it is
point
of
fact,the
of
is not
surface;
7
conglomeration
a
nerve-needles
directed
[Note
that
theoretical
inference and
not
an
empirical rule.]
THE
ORDER
OF
NATURE
123
toward
the lightand
having only
their extreme
points senfrom
one
distances
compared
with
their of
no
areas.
one
Now,
of these
points,
certainlythe perception of
excitation
a
singly can
produce the
the aggregate certain rela
surface, and
can
consequently not
to
amount
this.
of
But
subsist
between
the
excitations the
different
upon
nerve-
points,and hypothesis
ferred.
these of
constitute
is
premises
and from
which
the
space space
founded,
which
it is in is what of
as a now
That
is not and is
to
a
immediately perceived
mediate
universallyadmitted;
called But
as an
cognition is
the criticism
is
and inference,
are we
subject to
logic.
soon com
what
to
say
chicken
are
it is hatched
solvinga problem
to
data
of
plexitysufficient
It would the and time.
no
powers?
be insane
deny
that
the
tendency
to
lightupon
conception of
of every That
space
is inborn The
same
in the mind
of the chicken
thing
is
equally
true
of
lapse of
is present, and
not
is
present.
never some
That,
having
the
idea
our
time,
we
should
be able to
perceive the
for
"
flow in
sensations
without
ad
"
particularaptitude
The
idea of
mitted. is another
force
so
least,in
arrived
its rudiments
conception
low
in the But
early
at, and
found
it must
in be
animals
so
scale of the
that intelligence, of
an
supposed
of
innate.
innateness
idea that
admits idea
to
degree, for
it consists
in the
tendency
of
present
do
so
Some
ideas,like
the
that very
of space, dawn of
present themselves
at irresistibly
124
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
the mind
we are
on
small
prov
of
so
other
conceptions
a
prepossessed,
is
strongly,down
to to
scale which
greatly
to
The
tendency
characters which
personifyevery
it,may
soon
thing,and
attribute human
but it is
man a
be said to be
overcome
innate;
tendency
to
is very
by civilized
him.
in
in
regard
a
objectsabout
Take
such
conception
square say that
that
of
gravitationvarying
It is
a
versely as
law.
is
one
the
to
of the distance. it is is
very
simple
that it
But which
simple
is
merely
to say to
the mind
adapted particularly
the
more
apprehend
with
facility.Suppose
had
idea
of
quantity multiplied
the mind than that
"
into another of
a
been
no
easy power
to
quantity raised
we ever
to
the
indicated
by
itself
should
It is
have
discovered
the law
system?
of
man
seems
strongly adapted
far
as
the
comprehension
that certain
of the
world;
at
so least,
this goes,
a
highly conceptions,
in his
never
important
mind; and,
have had
such
tendency, the
at
mind
could
any
are we
development
to
all.
How
explain
this
adaptation?
the
The of
great
indispensablenessof force,even
to
are
conceptions
time,
such
and
the the
lowest results
are intelligence,
to
of natural
selection. mechani do
any
Without
cal
something
like
conceptions,no
animal
or
might be
preservationof
with
an
the
might, it
provided
same
instinct is to say,
would
generallyhave
that effect;
THE
ORDER
OF
NATURE
125
he
might
and
have
conceptions
different coincided
from with
those
them
of
in
time, regard
as
space,
to
force,but which
cases
the
ordinary
animal
that
would
life whose
immense
in
the
strugglefor
down in
a
mechanical
conceptions did
as
break
novel
situation would
correct
(such
a
development
selection
matters.
must
bring
of
about),
more
there
more
be
constant
in
favor
and
ideas
of these of that
Thus law
would
upon upon
was a na
be
attained
the
knowledge
fundamental forces
which
all science
rolls;namely, that
space, and
mass.
depend
this idea
relations of
once
time,
When
sufficiently clear,it
of
would
require
to
no
more
than
comprehensible degree
ture
genius
an
discover
the exact
of these
relations.
must
Such
be
admitted
for
the
extraordinary accuracy
to
with
conceptionsapply
that there
the
phenomena
secret
of
Nature,
which
probable
be
is
some
here
remains
discovered.
Some
we are
upon
whether
ex
consider
the
or
material
universe
as
of limited and
tent
and the
quite boundless
it is conceivable the whole
to
in space that
a
in time.
In
or
case,
general plan
be
discov
some
design embracing
it would
a
universe be
on
ered, and
traces
be
proper In
for the
of such
unity.
the
we
latter case,
can
since any
pro
of which
have
experience
follows that
the smallest
it assignablefraction,
126
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
we a
never
could
discover
any
to
any
except
be
repeating one;
our
design embracing
would
beyond
powers
powers
of all intellects
during
Now,
we
is
absolutely
a
incapable of being
paper, is
a
known An
is,as
have
in
former
not
real at all.
absolutelyincognizableexistence
universe it is
as
nonsensical
infinite,
a
the is
attempt
to
find in it any
a
design embracing
of
whole
and futile,
involves
never
looking at
the
subject.
If the world
universe
stretches
beginning, and
without
if in space is
no
beyond
world
limit,there
whole
acter
of material
to
and things,
consequently no
no
general char
any
the
universe,and
But
need
was
or a
of possibility time
are
governor
for it.
if there
before
which
absolutely no
bounds
mere
matter
existed, if there
certain
absolute
there is
a
to
the
of which
an
void, then
since
we
naturally seek
look
for
for
explanation of it,
material
and,
the and
cannot
a
it among
things,
creator
hypothesis of
governor actual
great disembodied
animal, enough.
to
the
of the
state
world,
of the
is natural
as
The
evidence As
to
limitation of
on our
the universe
a
is
as
follows:
of
time, we
since
to
earth
a
constant
progress
development
seems
planet was
resulted appears from
red-hot the
ball; the
solar system of
a
have
condensation still
nebula,
and
the
see
process
stars
to
be
with
going
on.
We
sometimes
(presumably
resolved evidence
systems
of
worlds) destroyed
and
we
apparently
have
no
back
of any
condition, but
previous to
been
the nebulous
stage
from
to
have
evolved.
THE
ORDER
OF
NATURE
I27
favors
the
idea
of
we
beginning
be
than
otherwise.
we see
As
for
limits in space,
cannot
sure
that
anything
of theo
of the
Milky Way.
no
Minds of
therefore with
need
the distorting
parts of space
parts, occupied;
in all
that,as
which
we
we can
see
cyclesof
trace out
development good
in
to
end, the
as enormous our
same
holds distances
regard to
tween to
that
lie be
the
planets of
as
solar
system, relatively
distances and lie
their
diameters, and
our so
still more
enormous
between
system
it may be
to relatively
its diameter
other
systems,
exist with
so
supposed
ours as
that other
to
clusters galactic
such
remote
from do
not
be these
recognized as
are
certainty. I
say
not
say
that
are
strong induc
tions; I only
in
our
that the
they
the
presumptions which,
be
ignorance of
should facts,
preferred to hy
occur
potheses which
rences we
involve
in their character
as
of which
have
such experience,
disembodied
the
spirits,
of
me
the
creation
of matter,
infringementsof
laws
chanics,etc.
The universe When
ought
to
be
presumed
that
too
vast
to have
any
character. Nature
are
it is claimed
the
arrangements
of any
of
benevolent,or
we
just,or
to
wise, or
other
ought
the
be
being
such
"
offspringof
And
ill-founded
notion
examination
has hitherto of
a
shown
that
most
limited kind
limited in
in range.
iz8
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
In
like manner,
in the
if any of
one
claims
to
have
discovered
a
plan
their
structure
organized beings,or
scheme
in
among
natural
or objects, or an
system
of
of
in proportionality
or a
the human
form,
order
development,
the
correspondence between
events,
the
are or a
conjunctionsof
cance
planets and
or a
human
signifi
we
in
to
numbers,
ask
key
such
to
dreams,
relations
first
thing
have
susceptibleof they
a
explanationon
be
and principles,
as
if not
should
looked
upon
disfavor and
having already
examination has
strong
generally
theories.
to
minds
whom
every
prejudice,every
to say
pre these
sumption, seems
are.
It is easy
never
what
minds what
They
a
are
have
known who
as
it is to that That
draw other
well-grounded induction,and
is
as
imagine
own.
people'sknowledge
rolls upon is
no
nebulous
their
a
all science
a
presumption (not
with
of
formal
but of
can
real
kind)
argument
there the is
them,
because
they
not
imagine
These upon there
that
are
anything
who and who which
solid in human
waste
edge.
money But
people
their such
perpetual motions
are
other take up
rubbish.
better
minds
mystical theories
no
(by
which
mean
all those
have
are
of possibility who
are
These
persons We
favor
of such
theories.
all have
believe in such
things; our
the
education
to
as
result is,that
minds
nothing
seems
so
antecedently probable
find evidence
theory
of this kind.
Such
persons
enough
THE
ORDER
OF
NATURE
129
in favor
of their induction
in the absence
of any from
to
recognized
their belief.
logic of
But
cannot
be
driven
to the mind
physicistthere ought
be
strong
to out
so
me
that
those
who
to
have
sought
have
make been
that
science
not
hostile
theology
as clear-sighted
It would
be extravagant
to say
seem
at
present
of spirit
as us
it does
that such
a
the
one
any Our
that that
teachers
inform
Buddhism
most
miserable needful
no use
atheistical
shorn faith,
a
of the its
gloriousand
be of
attributes of
priestscan
nor
to
by praying agriculture
the
sun
rain,
also
to
war
by commanding
remonstances
to
stand
us
still. We that
to
hear the
the
of those in the
who
warn
to shake
general belief
livingGod
would
be
shake
the
must
no a
be ad
more
revolution
waste
thought could
desolation
to
new
be
accomplished
tion of trees wholesome in
without could be
and
than
planta
however
a a
transferred
ground,
for .languishing
many
dying.
a man
it, by-the-way,
have
to
be
presumed having
serious
that
a
would
taken
part
movement
issue
without
to
having
taken
and
regard
a
that
responsibility.But,
be
as
let the
one
consequences
of such that
belief
dire
as
they
may,
thing is
certain:
the state
of the and
no
it may
can
out,
car
prudence
long
arrest
the triumphal
130
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
"
no, not of
if the
our
discovery were
to
such
as
to
drive
individual it would
race
be
follyto
the mode
suppose of the
metaphysical perfectis
to
theory in regard to
being
of the
perfectwhich that, if
in the
constitutes
of
religion. It
of
is true
priests of
it gen
succeed religion
making
believed erally
ance
cannot religion
exist without
the accept in
so
of certain certain
see
formulas, or dogmas
no
if the
they
succeed
inter the
weaving people
which
with
can
essential
analogy
religion rejects
can
which
them,
not
well be to render
can
thpse who
we ever
believe these
Nor thingsirreligious.
hope
more
body
of
of
priestsshould
consider of the
themselves
in generalthan religion
particular system
But
no man
of
theology advocated
be excluded from
to
so
by
their
own
party.
the
common
need
nor
from
in participation
feelings,
them
as
much
of the
public expressionof
is of
open those
all the
by laity,
the
the
narrowness unphilosophical
who
guard
from
mysteries of worship.
that
common
Am
I to
be
prevented
tion of
joiningin
joy
at
we
at Easter
Christmas,because
I think which
mixed do
so
principlesare
those
untenable?
as
No;
more
would than
estimate
"
errors
of
consequence
truth
an
opinion
which
are
few
would
admit.
People
do not
believe what
rare
reallythe fundamental
and find, all but these
to
few
ought
to feel at home
in the churches.
SIXTH
PAPER
DEDUCTION,
INDUCTION,
AND
HYPOTHESIS1
THE for of
business
of
the
logician
on
is to
classify arguments;
The forms Barbara classes called is
classification. certain
defined
by
the
typical
called
syllogisms.
as
example,
syllogism
follows: S
is
M;
S
M is P.
is P:
Hence, Or,
to
put
Enoch
for
letters
"
Elijah
and
were
men;
must
all
men
die: died.
Hence,
The
or
Elijah
have
for
"is
P It
"
of is
the
logicians
of
stands
any
verb,
active how
neuter.
capable
trouble
strict
proof
(with which,
that but the all
ever,
will
can
not
the
reader) form;
"
arguments
under of the the
whatever condition
be
the
"
put
into
this
mean
only
that
"
is shall is
is for
purposes
an
argument
will appear
or
represented
form
by."
like
Thus,
this:
induction
in beans
this
are
something
These
two-thirds in this
white;
are
But, beans;
1
the
beans
bag
(represented
by)
these
Popular
Science
Monthly,
August,
1878.
132
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
.'.
The
beans
in the
bag
are
two-thirds be reduced
white. in
some
But, because
to
all inference
not to
may that
way appro
Barbara, it does
in which
follow
priate form
On
represent every
the
of inference. of dif in
distinctive characters
must
ferent
of
inference, they
clearlybe exhibited
Barbara
different
forms
peculiar
to
each.
so
particularly
the is is taken
deductive typifies
no literally,
reasoning; and
long
as
inductive
reasoning can
Barbara
rule. for
The
so-called
All
case
this
or
rule; as,
example,
states
a
mortal.
The
other
Enoch
minor
a man.
premise
The
under
the
rule; as,
was
conclusion
Enoch
appliesthe
rule to the
case
and
states
the result :
is
is mortal.
All deduction
is of this
to
character; it
particularcases. following;
evident,as
are a
in the
quadrangles
no
figures, quadrangle;
not
is triangle
Therefore, some
But here
"
figuresare
triangles.
the
reasoning is reallythis:
is other than
a
Rule. Case.
Every quadrangle
Some
"
triangle.
"
figuresare figuresare
quadrangles.
not
Result.
Some
or
triangles.
more
Inductive
than case, the
can mere
general rule
this form.
we a
to
particular
never
bag
one
beans
of which it is
know
that
are
take
random,
deductive
inference
DEDUCTION,
that We this bean is
INDUCTION,
HYPOTHESIS
133
The This
beans
bean
in this has
bag
are
white.
in such
a
Case.
in the would
"
been
drawn
way
so
that drawn
long run
of white
beans
in the
bag.
a
Result.
in the
This
run
bean
has
been
out
drawn
in such
way
that
long
it would of
turn
one
white
we
of the time.
a
drawing
bean
draw
handful
are
at
conclude
that about
of the handful
same
prob
of the
sort.
If,however,
there
are
knowing bag,
beans
we
what
proportion
a
of white random
beans
in of
the the
draw
in the
handful
at
and, rinding f
that up
a
handful
are
white, conclude
are
about the
-fof
those
in the
bag
white, we
and
a are
rowing
current
of deductive
sequence,
of
a
concluding
case.
rule from is
the
observation
result in
certain
This
one
particu
The
turn
out
color.
beans
in this white
bag
beans beans
in the
bag
were
white.
Which
is but
an
inversion
of the deductive
syllogism.
Rule.
Case.
"
in the
were are
bag
were
white
"
"
beans
in the white
bag.
Result.
So and that
These
beans
jnduction is
the inference
the
case
result.
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
But
this is not
as
the
only
a
way
of
so syllogism
to
produce
syntheticinference.
a
I enter
room
and
there find
On
some
number
the
of
bags,containing
a
different kinds
of white
of beans. after
table there is
handful
of the
a
beans; and,
white
a
I find searching, I at
once
one
as
bags
contains
as
beans
only.
that
infer
was
prob
out
an
or ability,
this handful
taken
of that
bag.
of
inference of
a
is called
case
making
a
hypothesis*
result.
We
It is the inference
from
rule and
have,
then
"
DEDUCTION.
Rule. Case.
"
from
are are
this
bag
are
white.
"
beans
from
this
bag.
.'.Result.
These
beans
white.
INDUCTION.
Case.
"
These
"
beans beans
are are
from
this
bag.
Result. .'.Rule.
"
These
white. this
from
bag
are
white.
HYPOTHESIS. Rule.
"
from
are are
bag
are
white.
Result.
These These
beans
beans
^y. Case.
We,
"
this
as
bag.
follows:
inference
Inference.
Deductive
or
Analytic.
Induction.
Synthetic. Hypothesis.
Baldwin's Dic
[Later Pierce
Probable
called
it presumptive
inference. See
tionary art.
Inference.!
DEDUCTION,
Induction of which is true
to
INDUCTION,
we
HYPOTHESIS
135
is where
generalizefrom
infer
we cases
number the
a same
of
cases
something
a
is true, and
that find
thing thing
of
whole
a
class.
Or, where
certain
be true of
of
certain
same we
proportion of proportion
find
some
and
infer that it
is true
the
of
the
whole
class.
Hy
pothesis is where
which
a case
very the
curious
circumstance,
it
was
would of
a
be
explained by
supposition that
certain
general rule,and
we
thereupon adopt
in certain
that
find
that
respects
objects have
one
resemble
I
as once was a man
another
at
a
strongly in
seaport in
to
a
other
respects.
landed
Turkish which I
province; and,
was
walking
upon canopy the
up
the
house
to
I visit,
met
horseback,
over
surrounded
by four horsemen
the governor of who
was
holding a
his head.
As
I could that
of
the
province was
be
was so an
only personage
think this
would This
I inferred
he.
found;
interior
we
of
country.
sea once
explain
over
the
phe
nomenon, This
suppose
this land.
is another
hypothesis.
documents and
monuments
Numberless
queror
seen
refer
we we
to
con
Napoleon Bonaparte.
yet
we
Though
what
have have
not
cannot
explain
and
seen, sup
namely, posing
As
a
all these
documents
monuments,
without
that he
reallyexisted.
Hypothesis again.
a
weak
kind
of
argument.
its
con
It often
judgment
say
so
slightlytoward
we
clusion
cannot
that
believe
the
latter
to
,36
be true; difference and the that
we
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
only surmise
except
one we
that it may
be
so.
But
an
there
is
no
of
are
degree
between
such that
inference
remember
by which
of
led to believe
our
we
occurrences
yesterdayfrom
ii
as feeling
if we
did
so.
Besides
the way
justpointed out
an
of
or
invertinga
deductive is
syllogism to produce
another. of the
a
induction of
a
If from
the
truth would
certain
certain conclusion
of falsity
necessarilyfollow,then
the of falsity the
premise
follow. Rule.
Thus,
"
the
are
followingsyllogism in
mortal.
Barbara:
All
Case.
.*.
"
Enoch
"
and and
men.
Result.
Enoch
mortal.
Now,
and,
person
who
denies
must
admit Thus:
not
the
rule,
in that
case, he Result.
men
"
deny
and
the
case.
Denial
Rule.
/. Denial
"
of
Enoch mortal.
Elijah were
mortal.
All
are
of Case.
kind of who he of
"
Enoch
and
Elijah were
not
men.
This cal
syllogismis
second the
called
Baroco, which
the other the
is the
typi
the in
mood
the denies
must
figure. On
result may
hand,
and
person that
case
case,
deny
Denial
of
the
Result.
"
Elijah
were
not
mortal.
Case.
.*.Denial
"
Enoch
and Rule.
Elijah were
"
men.
of
the
Some
men
are
not
mortal.
DEDUCTION,
This kind of
INDUCTION,
HYPOTHESIS
137
is the
typicalmood
Baroco
but of
a
of the third
and very
Bocardo
are, of course,
syllogisms; by logicians
to
peculiarkind.
because
They
need
a as
called
moods,
as
they
transformation
to
a
the
applicationof
of
rule
we we
particularcase.
here done with
a
if,instead
settingout
in
necessary tion of
deduction similar
Barbara,
probable deduc
which
we
form, the
indirect
shall
obtain
will be
"
to to
Baroco, Bocardo,
with
an an
hypothesis;
induction.
example,
let
us
begin
this
probable deduction
Most
in this
are
bag
are
white. this
"
This
"
of beans
from
bag.
are
.'. Result.
Probably, most
of this handful
of beans
white.
Now, deny
Denial white. Rule. .'.Denial from This is
an
"
the
of Result.
Few
beans
handful
are
Most
beans
"
in this
bag
are
white. beans
were
of Case.
another
Probably, these
taken
bag.
the
result,
of Result.
"
Few
beans
of this handful
are
Case.
"
These
beans
came
from
this
bag.
138
/.
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
Denial white.
oj Ride.
"
Probably, few
beans
in the
bag
are
This
The
is
an
relation
synthetic and
When
de
we
ductive
reasoning is
a
without
importance.
alone
adopt
certain the
hypothesis, it
facts, but
lead
because
the
it will
explain
observed
because
contrary
to
hypothesis would
observed.
probably
we
results contrary
those
not
So, when
it but
make the
an
induction,it
of rule than
is drawn
only
the
because
explains
also
distribution
a
in
sample,
have the
because
different other
prob
ably
But
led to the
sample being
of this way An consider
advantage
of
consideringthe subject
is
might easily be
ference
is
an
overrated.
to
induction it
as
really the
of
a
in rule
of
rule,and
the
denial
artificial
or
conception, only
admissible
because,
considered
when
as
denial
rule is itself of
a case
rule.
a
So, an
hypothesis
not
reallya subsumption
of
one
under
to
class and
a
the
denial under
it,except
class may is to be
for
this,that
a
deny
subsumption
another. timid and
as
admit
subsumption
as an
under
Bocardo
to
considered
induction,so
lose its
are
character amplificative of
a
entirely.Enoch
of
men.
jah
of
specimens
are
certan
men
shown
by
these
to be
instead
men
of
boldly concluding
all very
pious
all
re
favorites of the
immortal,
men,
we
and
men
rest
are
in im-
merely explicativeinference
so me
DEDUCTION, mortal.
So Baroco Enoch
INDUCTION,
HYPOTHESIS
139
might
and them
we
be
considered
are
as
very
timid
we
hypothesis.
Elijah
to be
not
or
mortal.
Now,
gods
something
to the
of that
of that
some
limit ourselves
inference of
man.
they
of
nature
different from
immense
to
that
But,
after
is
an
difference between
Barbara and that and of
a
the of Bo
con
relation of
Induction
and
Bocardo
and based
Hypothesis
upon
to Deduction.
Baroco truth
a
cardo
are
the
fact
that
if the of
the truth
from
follows
true.
the
is
always
It is different
no means
only probable.
truth of
a
It
by
follows render
that,
the the At
certain
premise
would the
probable, therefore
of falsity
as we
of falsity
conclusion
the
premise probable.
in
a
have
in
seen one
former
in the
paper,
ante
probable
is used
sense
cedent
in another
in the
consequent.
in
A paper. His
certain It is
anonymous
writing
that he
is upon is
a
torn
piece
of
suspected
which
a
certain is
person.
desk, to
only
access,
torn
searched, and
of which
ex
piece of
paper,
edge
all its
a
that irregularities,
in ques
It is
was
fair
hypothetic
author.
torn
inference The
suspected
actuallythe
that
two
ground of
of paper
this inference
are
evidently is
pieces
extremely
I4o
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
unlikely to
number
fit
togetherby
accident.
Therefore, of
a
great
of inferences
very of
small
propor
be
is
so
deceptive.
strong that
has
analogy
hypothesis with
confounded
of charac
have logicians
an
Hypothesis
A number in
a
been
called
induction
a
of characters certain
belongingto
certain
class
found
it is inferred
that all
of that class
to the
certainly involves
a
the In
principle as
yet in
not next
an
modified
form.
enumeration in
objects; in
we we or
the
categories. When
the
make
that of
about
piece
of paper,
two
only three,
examine and
were we
singleline
no
or characters, perhaps
take
specimen
an
at
If the should
hypothesis
be
nothing
but
induction,all
the
justi
the
fied in
two
as
concluding,in
paper examined
be
that
pieces of
have been
which would
irregularities
in
found
match from
other, shape
say
inference
the
of the paper
its
distinguishes
and
more
hypothesis from
and induction,
makes
it
bolder
perilous step.
The
same
upon
to
the
uniformity
of
as
Nature
in
regard
hypothesis. Here,
to account to
there,
for the
theory
the
not
validityof
of
no
inference,but
which
are
gives rise
methods
are,
conducting it
absolutely vicious.
in
There
DEDUCTION,
which
we
INDUCTION,
HYPOTHESIS
141
will
an fortify
hypothesis very
much. other
For metals
example,
exist in lines
would
suppose
that
iron,titanium, and
we
because in and
spectrum many
these metals
positionwith
this
those which
is
produce;
our
hypothesis
greatly strengthened by
distinctiveness of the par
But such
a
knowledge
fortification
hypothesis is probable
is
no
of
deductive
such
nor
kind, and
hypothesis may
is
when
reinforcement
more
wanting.
in prac
one
greater
to
logic than
suppose
some
that
resemble
the
more
another
strongly in
respects
That
any
likely
this is
false, absolutely
as
admits
of
inasmuch
the
reasoning is
like all such
and
reasoning,the
reader
of
it
forth),the
I omit sition: with
ena
would
probably
and distasteful,
it. The
An
example, however,
may
comparative mythologists
findingpoints of resemblance
and the
careers
between
of all sorts
solar
phenom
of the heroes
of traditional
stories;and
fer that
upon
resemblances
of the
they
sun.
in If
these
heroes
more me.
impersonations
in their
there
be
made
anything
clear to
reasonings,it
has show
never
been
An
a
to ingeniouslogician,
how
is,wrote
same
littlebook, in which
manner, the that
sun.
he
pretended Bonaparte
prove,
in the
Napoleon
It
was
is
only
an see
impersonation of
how many
reallywonder
he
one
ful to
points of resemblance
any
two
made
out.
The
truth
is, that
things resemble
another
H2
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
justas stronglyas
are
any
two
if others,
recondite
resemblances
of
admitted.
But, in order
lead
to
a
making
an
hypothesis should
rules must
be
followed:
be
fPThe
before
In
hypothesis should
the
we
distinctly put
which
see are
as
question,
its truth.
making
observations
must
to
test
other
words,
try to
what
the
result of pre
dictions from
2.
the
hypothesis will
be. the
must
The
must
resemblances
not
are
noted
random. which
We
take
par
ticular kind
to be 3.
must
for predictions
the
hypothesisis known
good.
The be failures
as
well
as
the The
successes
of the
predictions
must
honestly
unbiased. persons
noted.
whole
proceeding
be
fancy
are
favor
that
partisan de theory
its heel that of
our
investigate. This
But
is the
atrocious this
legal procedure.
It
Logic puts
upon
suggestion.
can
irrefragablydemonstrates by
the real
knowl
edge
only be furthered
of
a
trying to
value.
reach
absolutely of
is at lib
set
These
so or
things are
not
as
The
erty to think
or can as
long
the
proof
forth,
so, he
long
as
he
refrains from
examining
of
Just
in
preserve, the
a
opinion
that
to
regard
if he
to
only, in
will do
case,
takes
ever
read
Euclid, he
well
skip what
he
attentively
DEDUCTION,
that
INDUCTION,
the freedom
HYPOTHESIS
143
disagreeable matter,
of his
opinion about
geometry may
How
to
many
own
who
are
"
incapableof putting
Do I want
to know
their the
consciences
this not?
question,
"
how
stands, or
which have
The
duction There
thus such
far
as
been
are
laid down
for in
hypothesisare
many other
absolutelyessential.
are
maxims
trivances
for
extremely valuable
are, in may for
should
four
not
be
example, Mr.
total
MilPs
of
methods.
the and
neglect
these, inductions
attain the
hypotheses
sometimes
do
greatest force.
-^
IV
Classifications
exist. Even in
in all
cases
regard
to
the
could
be found
to
lie upon in
some
the border
between
the two
classes,
of either.
partake
thing is
true
between
and
induction
hypothesis.
In
the
main,
that
it is broad
decided.
By facts,
con
we induction, are
conclude
cases
similar facts,
to observed
true
in
not
examined.
a
By
hypothesis, we
from
clude
the
existence
of
fact
quite different
to known
anything
observed, from
observed
would
which, according
necessarilyresult.
the
The
ing
from
particularsto
cause.
general law;
the classifies,
from latter,
effect to
The
former
latter
explains.
144
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
It is
a
only
in
some
specialcases
to
that there
can a
be
more
than
momentary
doubt
which
category
we
given
inference
belongs. One
ilar under
exception is where
observe, not
facts
facts sim
different under
hav of the
different circumstances
ing, however,
latter.
definite relation
are
the
difference
Such
reallyinductions,some
indubitable resemblances
times
to
present
hypotheses. Knowing
that water
expands by heat,we
of
a
make
mass a
number
of water of these
of observations
at
of the volume
constant
different temperatures.
a
The
scrutiny of
which
suggests
form
of
algebraicalformula
approxi
tempera
relative
ex
mately
ture.
express
the relation
of the volume
v
to
It may
and
t
being
volume,
amined
temperature,
relation of the
few
"
observations
indicate
form bt-
at
+
at
Upon
at
examining observations
this idea that is
other and
temperatures
we
random,
confirmed;
draw the
the
tive
conclusion
all observations
we
within
our
limits
temperature
could such
to
a
from
so
which
have
drawn
once
observations
that
equally be
formula
satisfied. Having
it possible, is
a mere
ascertained
is
affair of arithmetic
will make is what upon the formula
of a,
b, and
best.
c, which
satisfythe observations
an
This
it rests
physicistscall
mere
empiricalformula, because
is not
induction,
and
explained by
any very
hypothesis.
useful
as means
Such
formulae, though
of
describing
DEDUCTION,
in
any
INDUCTION,
the
HYPOTHESIS
145
general high
terms
not
take
rank
among
induction whatever
which other
expansion by
heat
(or
a
is referred sudden
perfectly
fluc
gradual manner,
without
leaps or inummerable
no
attention,
the defects
naturallyanticipate. But
very
are
expressionsare
the observations the formula
serious.
In
long as
tions
subject to
be
error,
all observa
are,
cannot
expected
to
satisfy the
be be due
observations
exactly.
errors
error
But
solelyto owing
from
to to
the the
of the
must
partly
of the formula
been
have
deducted
no
erroneous
Moreover,
right
free
at
suppose error,
had
from
could
be
expressed by
formula similar
use
all.
They
with that
formula
would of
infinite number
of terms;
but
of what
be to us, since
to
it would down?
require an
When
infinite number
one are
coefficients
with it is way
one
be written
matter
of mathematical in
a a
ingenuity to find
a
of
simple
manner.
If
"
quantity is
other of
kind
kind
"
"
say, say,
specific gravity
temperature
"
and
we
the
not
another
an
do is free with
desire to find
from
which
were
wholly free
from
them
numerical say,
when,
specific gravity
as
compared
temperature
were
in
question,numbers
be in-
I46
troduced We the
no
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
when
the
scales
of
measurement
were
changed. expressing
contain scales of
may,
however, and
of
relations
more
physical phenomena
than
shall
changes
in the
measurement
When
formula
of this kind
is
discovered,it is
a
no
longer
and is is
called
sooner
law
an
of
Nature;
of
hypothesis
are
which
to
explain
simple
are
formulae
none
not
usually, if
for
ever,
the less
important
that; and
it
when
explains not
the
only
the In
formula,
current
but
also
the
deviations
from
formula.
the this
language
of the
a
physi theory,
cists,an
while have in the think
hypothesis of
importance
restricted favor. the
our a
is called
the term
hypothesis is
in their
to
suggestionswhich
is
some
little evidence
There word
own
justice
To pre Lord the
contempt
that
we can
which
clings to
out
hypothesis.
minds
a
strike
Nature
"
of
true
conception of
Bacon
how
acts, in
fancy.
As
well says:
sense
The
subtletyof
intellect:
so
far exceeds
subtlety of tions,and
of
and
these
men
fine medita
are a
reasonings of
one
sort
insanity,only
at
hand
to
remark
are
it."
The
successful theories
reasons.
not
pure
guesses,
but
guided
by
The This
kinetical
theory of gases
to
is
good example
of this.
theory
is intended
explain certain
the law in
a
simple formulae,
It
is called gas be be
of
Boyle.
is,that if
a
any
other
placed
cylinder with
the
piston,
of the
if its volume
measured
under
pressure
DEDUCTION,
INDUCTION,
fifteen
HYPOTHESIS
147
atmosphere,
then the and
say
pounds
per
on
the
square
inch, and
be
if
on
another
fifteen gas
pounds
square
inch
placed
its
piston,the
in
will be
compressed
ratio
for
to one-half
bulk,
The
similar
other
to
pressures.
hypothesis which
is that the
adopted
gas
are
account
molecules
from
great distances
other
to (relatively
their dimen
sions), and
attractions
one
moving
or
great velocity,without
to
sensible
approach
that
another
a
very
this,and
it follows
when
gas is under
not
prevents it from
the
collaps
ing
is
the
are
incompressibilityof
under
no
separate mole
do
not
pressure
at
the the
pounding
pressed,
the
together the
will be
at
molecules
moment
be;
a
the
greater number
distance
one
there
any
given
any of
a
of
the piston,the
its
course
shorter is
the
distance the
which influence
will go before
changed by
new courses
number oftener
of
of
a
each
in
each,
within
given
distance The
to
piston,will strike
exact; but
in the
it. This
explainsBoyle's law.
not
is not
the first
lead
are mean
us
it
the
molecules their
large,
dis the On
one one
other and
when
diminished,
will
consequently
pressure
an
produce
upon
hand,
have
attraction time
another, they
another's
will
sensible
within
and influence,
consequently they
will not
strike
i48
the wall
so
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
often
as
they otherwise
would, and
the pressure
by compression.
theory
of gases it rested pure
was
first proposed
on
by
of
ac
Bernoulli, in 1738,
and
was
only
the
It
law
was
Boyle,
therefore
hypothesis.
not
speak of the
number
it has been
of observed
of different kinds
with
brought
into
lation,it
That
is
supported by
mechanical
which
attract
theory of heat.
one
bringing togetherbodies
which
nor
another, or
sensible
separating bodies
motion is not
repel one
another, when
produced
of
by
the
evolution
it has
to
induction.
a
Now,
been
gas
is
allowed
of heat gas
expand
very
small
amount
disappears.
one
the
of particles very
the
attract
another
a
but
slightly. It
prevents
the
two
follows it from
that, when
gas
not
pressure,
what
collapsingis
there is
to
repulsion between
there
are
parti
modes and is not
cles,since
of force
none.
Now,
only
known
positionor
attractions
force
of positionwhich
the force
gives a
In
as
expansive force,
of
it must
of motion. appears
this
a
point
view, the
from the
deduction
theory
of heat.
same
It is to be
the modes
we
law of
see
of mechanics which
only
force)
and
holds
to
regard
also
to
bodies
can
examine,
for
DEDUCTION,
INDUCTION,
HYPOTHESIS
149
what
are
very has
different,
but
a
the
molecules
of from
bodies. induction.
Such Our
supposition
belief
law of
slender
support
in it is
greatly strengthened
and it
by
its connection
to
with
as
the
an
Boyle,
is, therefore,
Yet would with between the the it must
be be
considered admitted
hypothetical
kinetical
had
not
inference.
of gases
that
the
if it
theory
been
deserve
little credence of
connected
principles
induction of
mechanics.
The that
we
great
the
difference
infers in
and
hypothesis
such
is,
as
former
existence which
are
phenomena
have
observed
cases
similar, while
kind from
hypothe
what
we
sis
supposes
something observed,
of
different
have
it would
directly
be
and for
us
frequently
to
something directly.
which Accord
impossible
we
observe
ingly, when
of
our
stretch the
an
induction
the
limits of
no
observation,
It
warrant
inference
of that
the
we
nature
hypothesis.
inductive
would for of
be
a
absurd
say
have
a
generalization
and there
our
extending
is
no
little
to
beyond
drawn
the
limits
experience,
we
line
be
beyond
cannot
push
it is
cannot
inference; Yet,
it much if
an
only
in
weaker
further
pushed. give
be
we
pushed
find
can
far, we
an
credence
some
that and do
such
extension
explains then,
we
fact
a
which
of
we
observe.
and
are
Here, hypothesis
have
kind
an
mixture
and
of of
induction
this
supporting
theories
of
one
other;
kind
most
of
the
physics.
150
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
That and
may
be divided
into induction of
are no
hypothesisin
The
here value
proposed,3admits
of the distinction
question.
be tested
and utility
to
by
their
applications.
much
Induction than
a is,plainly,
stronger kind
for
of inference
hypothesis;and
them.
distinguish regarded as
are
ing between
Hypotheses
are
sometimes
to
replacedby
inductions.
of the fact
very
an
a frequently
capable of
direct observation.
once an
It is How
hypothesisthat hypothesis
Napoleon Bonaparte
ever
is that It may
to
be
replacedby premise
that
be said that
from
as
the
such
we
have
are
observed
to
are
they
would that
be if
infer
by
induction
hereafter is
no
to
be
observed
that every
will be of the
same
doubt
hypothetic inference
of
an
induction
of
an
induc
set
it infers
set
of
whereas facts,
facts of
serve
one as
facts which
grounds
are
belief in the
means
historic
realityof Napoleon
kind be by of facts
not
by
are
any
which
3
explainedby
was
It may
of and and lectures
was
that,at
the author in the
9,
This the
division Lowell
first made
before
Institute,Boston, in Academy
1866,
printed
of Arts
DEDUCTION,
the way
a
INDUCTION,
events
were some
HYPOTHESIS
151
time
not
of his career,
now
being
recorded
in
some on
dreamed
of, that
ingenious creature
the
photographing
earth,and
may
some a
these
come
or possession,
mirror
upon
tant
will,when
to
the
light reaches
mind which that
story back
earth.
Never
how
improbable
is
these
everything
not
some
happens
these
infinitely likely
which
am
saying
effect of certain
things are
existence
to
but
that
Napoleon's
nevertheless that such
impossible is
The
be
about. do
occur,
hypothesis asserts
of
a
facts,when
not to
will be
nature
to
confirm, and
the existence
of the
man.
We
second
for third
an
the two
kinds
of inference.
A with
distinction
important psychological or
in
physiological
Induction That
difference
infers
a a
the mode
of the
apprehending facts.
a
rule. is
a
Now,
belief of
rule
is
habit.
every
a
habit
rule active
of been
a
in us, is evident.
That
as
belief
is of the
nature
habit, in
shown in
so
far
it is of papers
general
of this
character, has
series. expresses
the
earlier
which
a
physiological process
a
of formation
of
habit.
attached
a
to
one
there is that
peculiarsensation
of these
belonging to the
in
act
of
thinking
In
each
predicates inheres
this
the
subject.
hypotheticinference
complicated feeling so
produced
IS2
CHANCE
AND
LOGIC
is
replaced by
belongingto
Now,
way, when there
the act
our nervous a
complicated
of the
being
relation is
a
between
elements
the excitation,
result
disturbance
sounds upon the made
ear,
which
I call
an
emotion.
of
a an
by
and from the
the the
orchestra
peculiar musical
This
emotion, quite
emotion is
distinct
the
same
themselves.
an
essentially hypo
thing as
every
an
thetic inference We
ous
involves
the formation
of such
emotion.
sensu
may
say,
element for
thought, and
induction
the habitual
to
element.
As
deduction, which
of the and
as
adds facts
nothing
the
premises, but
the
only
out
one
various
represented in
down for
to
premises
may
selects be
brings the
the
attention
it,this
considered
is the
logicalformula
of
which
to
volitional element
thought, and
of
nervous
discharge in
merit of the
the
sphere
physiology.
induction and
Another
distinction
to
a
between
natural
hypothesisis,that
of the
it leads of the
very
classification
them.
more
sciences
must
and
minds
which
prosecute
men
What
than We have
of scientific of their
anything
cannot
the
differences work
men
techniques.
expect
in
common
who
with
with
books
lives
are
chieflyto
passed
the in
much
whose
laboratories.
most
But,
are
after
differences of this
kind,
of
next
important
the
reasoning.
Of
natural
sciences,we
are
sciences,which
purely inductive
systematic botany
DEDUCTION,
INDUCTION,
HYPOTHESIS 153
and
zoology,
sciences
mineralogy,
of
and
chemistry.
above
Then,
we
have
the
theory,
Then,
etc.
as
explained
sciences
of
"
astronomy,
pure
physics,
etc.
we
have
hypothesis
"
geology,
There
biology,
are
many I
other
advantages
leave
the
of
the
distinction
in
question perience.
whether
which
shall
reader
to
find
out
by
ex
If
he
will
only
take
the
custom
of
considering
other of
the
given
of
inference
belongs
inference
to
one
or
two
forms
synthetic
that he
given
his
on
page
134, in
can
promise
various
him
will
find
advantage
it,
in
ways.
II CHANCE
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
I.
THE
ARCHITECTURE hundred
at
OF of
of
THEORIES1
that have
OF been
the
fiftyor
systems
times
have
philosophy
the
advanced
the
different
world's
so
history,
results accibeen
perhaps
,
been, not
much have
of historical
happy
thoughts which
An been idea
dently
found
and The
occurred
which
has
and interesting
adopted, developed,
sorts
forced
to
of
to
phenomena.
this way of
English
particularlygiven
has what
it been the
true
by
nature
any and
means
useless
of the
labor;
ideas de
it
value
veloped
for
are,
and
in that
way if
a a
affords man,
serviceable
materials
with the
philosophy.
that go
Just
paper
as
being
seized
to
conviction
was
good material
a
make
things
with
of, were
roof of of
to
to work
to build
papier mdch6
of
house,
pasteboard,
windows of
paraffined paper,
forms of
different
his
experiment
probably certainly
afford valuable
make
are a
lessons
while builders,
so
it would
detestable
house,
those
one-idea'd
philosophies
are
quite
unsound. The
nature
remaining systems
of
of
philosophy amounting
have
to
been
of
the
reforms,
sometimes
radical
revolu found
have
been
The
Monist,
January, 1891.
JS7
I58
to
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
beset systems
be in
vogue; motive
and of
such
any
ought
new
cer
tainly to
This have
theory.
that the
is like been
rebuilding a partially
committed are,
house. the
The
faults of
first,that
been
repairs
have dilapidations
generallynot
not
going, and
to
second, that
the additions
sufficient
bring
into
deep harmony
really
sound When
is about
to
to
build he
a can
house, what
power
of
thinking he
With
are
has
do, before
has
to
safely break
ground!
that
most
what
to
pains he
excogitatethe precisewants
a
be
supplied! What
and suitable
to which
a
study
to
ascertain
the the
available
materials, to
those such
determine
are
mode
of construction and
to
answer
materials
best Now
adapted,
without
hundred
too
questions!
think the
we
far, I
may
safely say
of
a
preliminary to
be
at
construction and
great
as
theory
those house. That has
least
as
deliberate the
thorough
a
that
preliminary
to
building of
dwelling-
systems
ought
since
to
be
constructed but I do
architectonically
not
been
preached
Kant, by
any
think
the
full
has
means
been person
apprehended.
who wishes
I would
an
recommend
is that
every
problems, should
human in each
complete
survey
of ideas
knowledge,
branch has of been
science, should
successful of the and
just what
respect each
that
where
it has
failed,in order
so
in the
light
thorough acquaintance
attained
of the
available
THE
ARCHITECTURE
OF
THEORIES
159
materials
for
theory philosophical
may
and
of the
nature
proceed
consists
not
to the
study
of the
as
of what proper
of
philosophy
I
must
in, and
solving it.
state
be
understood
endeavoring
should
em
fullyall
on
that
these
preparatory
slur
studies
over
brace;
the contrary, I
to to
a
purposely
to
one
many
points,
in order
give emphasis
make
a
specialrecommendation,
of the
namely,
of which ascertain such The
a
systematic study
may
conceptions out
order
to
philosophicaltheory place
each
be
may
in built,
what
conception
uses
fitly occupy
in
theory,and adequate
but
at
to what
it is
adapted.
fill a
treatment
of this
to
singlepoint would
volume,
illustrate my
meaning by
glancing
them
and
conceptions in indicating
As
to the results to which
serviceable
studies thus
philosophy.
have
long
a
commenced
led me,
I shall
just give
begin
with
dynamics,
"
field in
our
day
has
of
perhaps made,
But
"
grandest conquest
the law
of the
human
science
ever
mean
conservation
of
energy.
let
revert
to the first
a
step taken
"
by
modern
scientific
thought,
"
and
the
dynamics by Galileo.
Galileo's works
had
to
physicist on
how of is to the
common
is
surprised to find
establishment
little
do
with
the
foundations
sense
mechanics.
il lume will be
see a
His
principalappeal
He be
a
naturale.
always
assumes
that
one.
the
true
theory
we can
found
to
simple and
be
so
natural in
And
For
why body
indeed
own
dynamics.
in
a
instance,
moves inertia,
and straightline,
160
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
straightline
curve
appears is
to
us
the than
simplest of
another.
A
curves.
In of
to to
no itself,
simpler
system
straightlines
those those the of
a
has
intersections of like of
an
preciselycorresponding
system
one
parabolas similarlyplaced,or
of
curves. as
of any
of systems infinity
to
us
But Euclid
straightline
appears between
simple, because,
evenly
its
as a
endwise
it appears in
point.
That
lightmoves
straightlines.
of the
Now,
part which
Thus
the
straightline
our
dynamics.
under
of
it is that of
minds
having been
"
the
influence
phenomena conceptions
our
mechanics,
certain in
are.
laws
become
at
implanted
the
to
minds,
Without for
that
a
we
readily guess
what
laws search
our
such
a
natural
prompting, having
suit the
as one
blindfold chance
law
which
would
phenomena,
of find
ing
it would
be
to
infinity. The
which the less
"
further have
we
physical
studies
depart
the laws
a
from
phenomena
of the govern
directly in
can
growth
which
mind,
them
expect
to
posed
The
of
few
conceptions natural
of
minds.
researches
to
Galileo,followed
up
by Huygens
Force and The
and
others,led
which have
those
modern
conceptions of
Law,
great
revolutionized
attention
soon so
given
to
mechanics
these
century
to
emphasized
conceptions as
doctrine
to
give rise
the
Philosophy, or
are
phenomena
mechani
a new
physical universe
be
explained upon
principles. Newton's
THE
ARCHITECTURE
OF
THEORIES
161
impetus
in
an
to this
tendency.
The
old notion
now
that heat
consists the
ex
applied
The
to
planationof
tion in this
propertiesof
was
gases.
that the
the
pressure
explained by
of the
batteringof
of compressibility
gadro's chemical
and the action of
law,
viscosityof
were
Crookes's
same
be
consequences
nomena,
of the
as
theory;
phe
such
to
the
at
ratio
constant
heat specific
constant
volume
that which
pressure, little
reason
require
to
additional
are
hypotheses, simple,
manner was so
we we
have find
suppose In
that
ourselves That
quite
afloat.
like
with almost of
regard
to
light.
the
it consists of
of vibrations
proved by
phenomena
those
to
showed polarization
to
particles
but the
be
perpendicular
of be
the
propagation;
phenomena
which
ress
hypotheses
prog If
may
complicated. Thus,
the
further uncertain.
of molecular
are
speculation appears
to
quite
or
hypotheses they
be
tried
haphazard,
simply
because
phenomena,
world
the mathe
on num
physicistsof the
to
century
the
the up
test,and
into the
since the
of
possible theories
can
go have
of which
be true,
to
little prospect of
our
the
subject in
time.
a
to
simple law
doubt
seems
very
for
serious
62
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
whether
the
fundamental and
more
laws
of mechanics
hold
are
good
for
singleatoms,
of motion To
must
it
seems
capable
in
than
more
much
a
about
atoms,
we
natural
history of
which the
may of
fulfil that
function
presumption
of
to
we
simple
us
early days
we
dynamics, by
expect and
showing
have Can
by
answering
prospect of
attract
one
questions as
this:
with
reasonable
atoms
the
suppositionthat
power
another
can
distances,or
nature
not?
To
capable
no reason
of
being apprehended by
for their
yet
in
having
specialforms,
a
standing
explicable and
Uniformities accounted up heads
are
is hardly irrational,
justifiable position.
need
to
preciselythe
That
a
sort
be
for. and
pitched coin
tails calls heads every
sometimes
turn
particular ex
wish
to know
ex
planation;but
how
time, we
Law
brought
a
about.
is par
cellence Now
nature
thing
that
wants
reason.
only possibleway
for
of in
accounting
is to
of
uniformity
This
general
them abso of
results
of evolution.
to
supposes
them It makes
not
an
be
lute,not
be
obeyed precisely.
element
absolute
chance
in nature.
we
when
we
attempt
cannot
to
verify any
be
physical law,
observations
rightlyattribute
we
the
discrepancy
far
more
of observa
tion,so
must
suppose
minute
discrepanciesto
THE
ARCHITECTURE
OF
THEORIES
163
to itself,
a
exist
owing
to
the
imperfect cogency
of the facts from
to
certain Mr.
swerving
Herbert
formula.
upon
Spencer
wishes is
explain evolution
four
mechanical
principles.This
the
for illogical,
reasons. ex
First,because
traneous
principle of evolution
the
requires no
can
cause;
since
tendency
from
an
to
growth
be supacci than
posed
itself to have
grown
infinitesimal law
germ
more
Second, because
ought
else to be law
supposed
result of evolution.
can
Third,
exact
obviously never
and
produce heterogeneity
the
of
homogeneity;
of the universe the
arbitrary heterogeneity is
manifest and
feature
characteristic. of energy is
Fourth, because
conservation all
equivalentto
by
mechanical
the
proposition that
are
operations governed
that
an
laws
reversible;so growth
violated
a
immediate those
it is that
is not
explicableby
of
they be
not
in the process
growth.
short, Spencer
a
is not
"
but philosophicalevolutionist,
or,
only
half-evolutionist,
Now
none.
if you
will,only
semievo
Spencerian.
lutionism The
or
theory
about
of
was
that
evolution
had
been
brought
as a
by
of two
factors:
heredity, first,
their
principle making
accidental or sporting,"
wider
races ones
variations,
"
for very
of breeds
up
to
or
that
rate.
unable
to
keep
the
the
death
This
Darwinian
gen
eralization.
Wherever
large numbers
of
objects,
64
a
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
having
this for
tendency
to
retain
not
certain
characters but
tendency, however,
chance
being
absolute
amount
variations, then,
in certain reaches
to
if the
of variation
absolutely limited
of
directions those in
by
the
destruction will be
a
everything
which
gradual tendency
from
an
change
a
departure
to
them. game,
Thus,
since of is
if
players sit
another remain
bet
at
even
one
ruined, the
average
crease.
wealth Here
those
perpetually in
of
indubitably a genuine
its
formula
possible
or
operation accounts
and
for much
little
development
Lamarckian of
of animal
vegetable species.
that the
theory
taken
also
supposes
a
develop
of in
place by
that
long series
those
it supposes lives of
changes
have
place during
of effort and
the
the
in individuals,
conse
and exercise,
that
reproduction plays
modifica the
tions.
Thus,
the
Lamarckian
development
the Darwinian
acters
of characters
for which
really beneficial
the
more
race,
though
and
these
may
fatal to individuals.2
But
broadly
philosophically by
the opera
conceived, Darwinian
tion of
evolution
the
is evolution of
chance,
and
destruction
bad
the
while results,
evolution
is evolution
by
effect of habit
theory of evolution
Weismann,
from the
is that of Mr.
Clarence
King.
would
The
neo-Darwinian,
has
shown of the
that
mortality
almost
necessarilyresult
action
Darwinian
principle.
THE
ARCHITECTURE
OF
THEORIES
165
is that
The
are
testimony
unmodified
of monuments
or
and
of rocks
species
cir
or
ordinary
cumstances,
but
rapidly altered
Under
after
cataclysms
novel
we circumstances,
animals
and
repro
duction, and
sometimes
undergoing
no
transformations due up
during
the
individual
life, phenomena
of from vitality
doubt
partly
to
enfeeblement of
the
breaking
of hab direct is
itual modes
organism
in
If
been
brought
not
about
this
only
single steps
been
as insensible,
both
Darwinians
and
Lamarckians
suppose,
on
but
they
nor
are
furthermore determined
neither
haphazard
the
one
hand,
yet
the have that
by
are
an
inward
strivingon
the
other, but
and
on
contrary
a
'
effects of the
changed environment,
to
positivegeneral tendency
since variation
adapt
the
organism
to
environment,
at
once
will
organs
enfeebled
forces
and and
stimulated.
the
evolution,
to
by
be
breaking
broadest
habits,seems
most
for
by
some
of the
important
facts been
,
biology
chief
and
paleontology;
in the
it
certainly has
of institu
factor of
historical
cannot
evolution
tions
a
in that
ideas; and
in the
possibly be refused
of evolution of the
very
prominent place
in
process
universe
general.
find the
Passing to psychology, we
of mind fall into three all that is
elementary phenomena
have such
we
we categories. First,
Feelings,
as
comprising
immediately present,
arises when
pain,
contem-
66
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
platea
having
state
consistent its
own
etc. theory,
is feeling
state
of mind other
living quality,independent
is Or, a feeling
an
of
any
of mind.
element
every such
a
of consciousness
state
which
other
until it
monopolized
cannot
mind, although
and realized, is
rudimentary state
not
actuallybe
would
properly be
consciousness.
the
it Still,
conceivable,or
usurp the
that supposable,
quality of blue
of the and
should of
whole
mind,
to
the
exclusion
mencement
ideas
com
and cessation,
ideas,whatsoever.
it
A had
parts these
was
would
also thus
be
in the
mind,
whenever
the
whole
present, and
the whole
could not
monopolize
Feelings,we
blindfold
have
Sensations
of
reaction; as
when
we
person
a
suddenly runs
when
make
a new
muscular
or effort,
to
a
feeling. Suppose
were
I had
nothing in
to
suddenly
give place
the instant
of transition
there would
be
shock, a
sense
of
reaction, my
If I
were
blue
life
being
trans
a
muted memory,
into red
that
sense a
life.
further
for
some
endowed
with
would
continue
would
with
also be
it. This
sentiment
last
endure
(conceivably I
and the the
mean) after
of blue reaction and
the memory
occurrence
feelings
of
red
had
passed
away.
But
sensation
cannot
actual
presence
of the
feeling may
is not
certainlybe compound,
that
but
only in virtue
all.
of
per
ception which
feelingnor
any
feeling at
THE
ARCHITECTURE
OF
THEORIES
167
Wherever
two
we
feelingsblue
have
two
and
red
to
which
it relates.
to
a
and feelings of
pay
attention
relation be
sensation and of of
tween
them I
two
am
whatever
But
kind, there
the
sense
is the
which has
speaking.
it may
of action
a
reaction relation
types:
two
either it may
be be
a
perception
sense
or ideas,
of action of
two
to us,
and
re
between
and feeling
something again
out
feeling. And
forms; by
no
sense a
of external
sense
reaction
has
for it
act
is either ours,
we
of
something happening
the matter,
or
of
re
being passivein
our
it is
sense
of
expending feelingupon
is thus
a sense
something
without.
or
The
sense
of reaction
of connection
comparison
between
between
one
feelingand
or
another, or B, between
and under B
we
its absence
sense
lower
access
degree;
of
have, First,the
sense
of
the
and feeling,
Second, the
of remission
of
feeling. Very
sensations
different both
or
from of
feelings and
are feeling
from
reaction-
disturbances
are
generalconceptions.
a
When
we
think,we
determined
conscious
that
connection
are
between
aware
is feelings
by
a
general rule,we
Intellectual and in in
of
being governed by
but
habit.
power
is
nothing
in
cases re
followingthem
but
non-essentials of
widely
from, the
those
one
normal
were
cases
of connections
under feelings
which
habits
formed.
fundamental
to
The
consists
primary
a
and
law
of mental
action
to
in
tendency
spread;
connections
between
feelings;
apt
to
neighboringfeelingsbecome
68
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
reproduce themselves.
the of
one
These
are
so
many When
formulations
a
of
law
of the
growth
of mind.
a
disturbance
of
have
a new
consciousness
gain, the
apt to
gain
experience;and
one more
disturbance
will be it.
that
preceded
by Feelings,
the
in easilyexcited,especially The
in which
con
sciousness
The
of such
habit
constitutes
general conception.
may be corrected Feel
an
cloudiness
of
by connecting
ing may
excited be
them
conceptions. physiological
a
supposed
nerve-cell
is in
sense
condition.
The
or feeling,
of
reaction,accompanies
tween
transmission
a
of disturbance
to
a
be
or
nerve-cells external
or
from of
nerve-cell
a
muscle-cell concep
the
stimulation
nerve-cell. of habits
General
the formation
molecular
changes consequent
with
a
activity
probably
connected
its nutrition.
The
law of habit
exhibits
strikingcontrast
A
to all
physi
cal laws
of its commands.
an a
physical law
Thus,
is absolute.
a
requires is
into the
exact
relation.
a
physical force
to
introduces with
motion
component
motion of
be
combined the
as
rest
by
the
forces; but
component
must
place exactly
other law.
required by
of
force.
the
On
the
hand, Nay,
the
no
exact
conformity
required by
be
in
mental
con
exact
conformity
since it would
would
downright
law;
prevent
all further
a
formation
only
makes
given feelingmore
likely to
arise.
THE
ARCHITECTURE
OF
THEORIES
169
of
to
thus such
resembles
as
the
"
"
forces due
physics,
are
statistical
uniformities
cules. The in
chance
of trillions of mole
of mind
and
matter,
so
prominent
of
Cartesianism,
two
different radically
kinds
sub
to-day.
Rejectingthis,
otherwise called
driven Then
one
to
some
form
of
hylopathy,
whether
on
monism.
on
the
question
the
arises
physical laws
the other
are
the
hand, and
"
psychical law
to
be taken
(A)
which
as
I would the
neutralism; or,
as
(B)
cal law
psychicallaw
as
derived
and is and
alone
primordial, which
as
materialism;
or,
derived
primordial, which
doctrine
to
common seems
is idealism.
to
me
The
materialistic
quite as repugnant
since it will
to
to scientific
to suppose
logicas
a
sense;
requiresus
which feel, reason,
"
that
a
certain
kind
of mechanism
would
an
be
only possible
make
theory
is that
it should
things
reasonable.
is
Neutralism known
as
condemned sufficiently
razor, that i.e., than
by
not
the
more
maxim logical
Ockham's
are
independent By placing
on a
elements
the
seems
to
be
supposed
necessary.
inward
to
one
and render
outward both
aspects of substance
par,
it
primordial.
of the
The
theory intelligible
universe
is that of ob-
7o
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
that jectiveidealism,
matter
is effete But
becoming physicallaws.
it must show space, the for
before
be
accepted
itself capable of
the laws of
tridimension-
alityof
motion,
general charac
clearness
of and
teristics of
with universe,
no
mathematical
precision;
less
should
be
demanded
every
Philosophy.
Modern mathematics is I with replete
ideas which
one or
may
be
The
applied to philosophy.
manner
can
only
notice
two.
in which
mathematicians
is generalize
to
very of
a
instruc
tive.
accustomed
think
picture
as
plane
But
by
lightfrom
use a
the
natural
objects to
the For
eye.
geometers
in the
generalized perspective.*
be the eye, let A
find further
instance
let figure
be the
edge-
[The
reader of
or
will
light
on
the
following illustration in
any
text-book 17-24,
projective geometry,
e.g., p.
Reye,
Geometry
of Position,
I, pp.
689.!
THE
ARCHITECTURE
OF
THEORIES
171
wise view
view of
of any another
plane,and
plane.
let
The
be the edgewise
draw the rays
geometers
treat
these
ray of
planes,and
one same
points
with the
plane as
ray
representing
the other D
with
plane. Thus,
represents E, in the
C A eye. is
painter'sway.
c, which
a
represents itself.
from other down of the side
to
represented by represented by
Such
is further is
not
on
eye; of
and
the
is
which
the
is generalization
bound
sensuous
this mode
a
representation every
the
a
plane represents
the how latter is repre
point on
sented
other,and
point on
a
point
by
the former.
from the
But
about
the is in
the
point
/ which
is in
direction
to parallel
represented
a
how the
about
point
which
representing plane?
modern
Some
will
exceptions;but
can
mathematics
be annulled
to
by generalization.5
thence
to
from
and
and
off
toward
moves
the other
plane
this
to
and
thence
to
and
a;
/.
But
second
point can
pass
through f
at
to
arrived
A
.
We
therefore say
that
every
joinsin
itself somewhat
like
an
oval.
Geometers
talk of
[A
more
example
After the idea
of
was
this is the
introduction that
no
of irrational
or
surd could
numbers
it
proved
ratio of two
integers
the
same
possibly equal V5
Fractions
of and
of number
was
generalized to include
numbers illustrate the certain
latter.
process
the
so-called
imaginary
sake of
making
operations (i.e.
division and
continuously applicable.
72
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
an
infinite distance
as
points.
This
is
kind
of
generalization very
views of
an
Modern
measurement
philosophical
of
measur a
aspect.
There
a
is
indefinite number
a
of systems
ing along
scale of
on one
line; thus,
line may
perspective representationof
to measure
be taken
another, although
agree with To what
we
course
such
measurements
will not
of
points on
on a
establish distinct
we
system of measurement
to
must
assign a
number
each
to
point
suppose of
of
shall
an
plainly have
infinite
must
numbers of decimals.
into
number
places
the
These
numbers
sequence. should into
to a
be
ranged
in order it must
along
that
line
a
in
unbroken
Further,
of
any
such
scale of numbers
of
be
new
use,
be
capable
being
shifted
continuing to
it is found
as
be attached if this
single
for
distinct point.
"
Now
that
is true
imaginary
"
as
well
for
real
which
I cannot
stop
two
to
elucidate),any
attached scale
shiftingwill
same over
leave necessarily
as
points
the line
are
before. any
So that
is moved
one
by
two
continuous
series of
no1
of shiftings
on
kind, there
can ever
points which
numbers fixed
the This
scale
reach,
there.
pair
of
points,thus
These
in measurement, be
distinct and
may of
coincide,
a
be both
a
imaginary.
absolute
an
As
we
an
example
take
linear
quantity with
which ranges
double from
may
probability, certainty
absolute
unattainable
an
absolute
against a proposition to
equally unattainable
THE
ARCHITECTURE
OF
THEORIES
173
certaintyfor
have
seen
it. A
to
we ordinary notions,
is a linear A
the two A
pointsat infinity
train
would
velocityis
example.
New
same
going with
be at all if the be
ex
velocityfrom
the
were
Chicago to
the very
York
points on
of transit in the of
a
line at
and instant,
reduced
to less than
nothing it would
is
a
moving ample
values.
other of the
direction.
An with
angle
no
familiar
mode of
magnitude
real immeasurable
to
One
the
an
consider
is whether
crease
development
that it
is like the in
of
angle,so
proceeds
forever
without
to
tend
be the
a
ing toward
I take sprang
Epicurean view,
chaos in the different
whether
the
universe
to
from
some
tend
toward
thing
distant infinitely
future, or
past
to
whether
go
on
the universe
sprang
a
from
nothing
in the
in the
in
toward definitely
point
distant infinitely
future,
which,
which
were
it
would attained,
be
the
mere
nothing from
it set out.
The
doctrine
"
of the absolute
applied to
space
comes
to
is, as
so
Euclid the
teaches,both
unlimited
of
and any
that
seen
in
sum
perspective appear
of the three
in straightline,
a
which
to
the
or,
angles of
triangleamounts
80";
Second, space
distant infinitely appear this
case as a
is immeasurable
but
limited,so
seen
that
the
parts of any
which
plane
in
perspective
in
beyond circle,
sum
all is
blackness, and
a
the
of the
three
angles of
triangleis less
i74
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
than
80"
by
an
amount
proportional to
the
area
of
the
triangle; or,
Third,
a
space
but
of
a
sphere), so
finite
to his
journey along
straightline
bring
an
one
back
unobstructed
view
would
see
the back
case
of his
sum
own
head three
enormously angles of
a
magnified, in
which
the
of the
exceeds triangle
area.
180"
by
an
amount
proportionalto
the
Which
The
of
these
three
hypotheses is
can measure
true
we as
know have
star
not.
we triangles largest
are
such of
a
the for
the
distance
fixed
subtract
a
ing the
from
1
sum
anglesat
star's have
the base
of such The
triangle
80"
parallax.
been
of parallaxes
as
only
of
star
about
come
forty stars
out
measured of
yet.
Two
a
them of
negative, that
is
star
" "
Added
(a Cycni),
o."o82,according to
of
C. A.
as
F.
Peters, and
III 422,
magnitude yf
to
known
,
Piazzi But
is
o."o45, according
R.
to
S. Ball. be
at
these
to
negative parallaxesare
errors
undoubtedly
the
tributed
such
a
of
observation; for
is about
were
=*=
probable error
it would
as
of be
determination if
we
o."o75, and
able
to
strange indeed
more
to
be
see,
it were,
to
see
than with
half way
round
space,
without
being able
the
come
stars
very
out
negative
would
be
strong
to
argument
the
smallest
re-
parallaxesreallyamount
o."i, were
it not
for the
THE
ARCHITECTURE
OF
THEORIES
I?s
flection that
may have
the
publicationof
other
we
negative parallaxes
may feel confident between
our
been
suppressed.
I think
that the
"
parallaxof
the furthest
another the
century
three
"
grand
of
are a
surely
greater
know
or
whether
angles they
less than
180",
ever
that be the
amount
is what that
nobody
can
concluding.
geometry
the
It
sum
is true
according
of
a
to
are triangle
cisely 1 80";
but
now
exploded, and
not
geometers confess
reason slightest
they, as
geometers, know
them
to
the
for
supposing
our
be
true. precisely
They
and have fords
as
are
expressions of
are
inborn
conception
far
as
of
space, could
such
entitled to credit, so
the formation of for
influenced
not
the
mind.
that
exact.
af
the
reason slightest
supposing
the of
Now, metaphysics
matics.
has
always been
the idea
of mathe
Geometry
of
suggested
demonstrative
system
the
philosophicalprinciples;and
at
ideas
metaphysicianshave
from mathematics.
all times
The
been
in
large part
axioms that the
are
metaphysical
and
now
imitations
of the been
geometrical axioms;
thrown after
no
overboard, without
It is
to
doubt in
sent
them.
reason
evident, for
that
stance, that
have
think
every
phenomenon
mined universe be
details is
an
by
we
law.
see,
to
there is
its
arbitrary element
This
namely,
variety.
some
variety must
attributed
Had I
more
spontaneity in
space, I
now
form.
to
ought
show
how
important
176
for Most
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
philosophy is
of what
the mathematical in
conception of continuity.
is
a
is true
Hegel
darkling glimmer
had
of made
conception which
pretty clear,and
illustrated.
long before
have
researches
still further
Among
the
many
of Logic principles
can
which
find
their
one.
application in Philosophy, I
Three
here
only
mention
at
perpetuallyturning up
in the
one
every
point
in every
most
rounded
systems
are con
they
occur
in connection very
to
another.
They
ceptionsso
are
broad and
consequently indefinite
be
that I
they
call
hard the
seize
easilyoverlooked.
Third. of First
them
conceptions of First,Second,
is the
anything else.
conception
of
being
relative
reaction
Third second
ception of mediation,whereby
into
first and
brought
how
relation.
To
illustrate these
we
ideas, I
they enter
of
into those
have
not
as
been
considering.
to
origin
but in of
things,considered
the
leading
anything,
of
contains itself,
idea
of
things that
Second,
A
mediating
them idea
philosophy
emphasizes
One,
is
generallya
of Second of of
conception
this is One
(though
the other
First)
The
always
of the is
manifold
is not
one.
idea
Many,
because
variety is
any
arbitrariness
and
arbitrariness
repudiation of
ponent
the
Secondness, has
In
for its
principalcom
is
conception of First.
psychology Feeling
THE
ARCHITECTURE
OF
THEORIES
177
First, Sense
or
of reaction In
Second, General
idea of
conception Third,
mediation.
biology,the
arbitrary sportingis
the accidental is
whereby
Chance
First,Law
Mind is
Second,
tendency
is
take
habits
is Third.
First,Matter
Such
are
Second,
Evolution
out
is Third.
a philosophical chiefly
the materials
to
of which order
to
be
in built,
of
us.
which into
going
important questions
can
philoso
sort
we phical architectonic, a
readily
foresee
what
of
metaphysics
would
appropriatelybe
some
constructed
most
from and
those
some
conceptions. Like
of the most
recent
of
the
ancient
speculationsit
suppose
was a
would
be
Cosmo-
gonic Philosophy.
"
It would
"
that chaos
or
in the of
beginning,
infinitely remote,
which feeling,
there without
unpersonalized
being
without
connection This
regularitywould
properlybe
and of
a
existence.
there
in pure
would arbitrariness,
generalizingtendency.
but
to
sportings would
virtue. from
evanescent,
the the
growing
Thus,
tendency
other
started; and
all the
evolution
of regularities
evolved.
At
any and
time, however,
will remain
chance
an
survives
becomes
metrical
system, in which
future.
been the
in crystallized
idea has
for
worked
main
out
by
of
me
with
elaboration.
as we
It accounts
features
the
universe
78
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
know
it,
the
"
characters
of
time,
It
space,
matter,
force,
gravitation,
which
new
electricity,
observations
etc.
predicts
many
to
more
things
May
have
the
can
alone
bring
ground
world.
the
test.
some
future
student
go
over
this
again,
and
leisure
to
give
his
results
to
the
II.
THE
DOCTRINE
OF
NECESSITY
EXAMINED
IN what
The
Monist
for
January, ought
1891,
to enter
on
endeavored into
our
to
show of the I
elementary
I may
ideas
view
universe.
had
mention
a
those
already grounded
a
theory,
of
deduced
of
now
considerable
with but
consequences This
capable
is
being
in
compared
progress,
experience.
comparison
must
under
existing
circumstances
occupy
many
years.
I propose
here
in
to
examine
is
the
common
belief
determined
a
that
every law.
single
It
must
fact
not
the be
universe
precisely
this is
by
supposed
at
that
doctrine
men.
accepted
Its first
everywhere
advocate
was
"
and
by
all rational
appears
to
to have
we are
Democritus, by
the
atomist, who
upon the
led
it, as
informed,
and
reflecting impact
of
impenetrability,
translation,
/cat
matter
(avTLTViria Kal
say,
ence
(fropa
is to influ
come
having
other his
restricted than
his attention
field where
no
mechanical he
constraint
could
to
possibly
the
before
that
notice,
straightway
universe that
so
jumped
was
conclusion
throughout
"
the
the
in
sole
our
principle of
with
men
action,
not
style of reasoning
to
usual
than in
day
unreflecting as
of
be
more
excusable
in
the
the
in
fancy
doctrine
thought.
and
But
Epicurus,
its
revising
atomic
repairing
defences, found
himself
obliged
The
Monist,
April, 1892.
179
8o
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
to
suppose
that
atoms
swerve
from he
now
their
courses
by
the
spon
taneous
chance;
and
thereby
For
we
conferred
see
upon
theory
pe
entelechy.
function
an
of
the
molecular
hypothesis
of
physics
is
open
probabilities.Already, emphatically
the
the
prince of philosophershad
the dictum of
repeatedly and
condemned
"
Democritus
(especiallyin
Physics," Book
to
events
com
come
pass
in three action
or
namely, (i) by
external
pulsion,or
an
the
(2) by
virtue and
of
inward
nature,
(3)
without irregularly
definite
cause,
just by
essence
absolute of Aris-
chance;
and
this doctrine It
at affords,
totelianism. of
to
rate, a valuable
enumeration be
the have
possibleways
come
in which The
anything
of
can
supposed
was
about.
freedom and
the
will,too,
But
most
admitted which
both
by Aristotle department
by Epicurus.
upon the
the
Stoa,
in every
seized
tangible,
hard, and
of every
lifeless
element, and
blindly denied
validity
the
fillits
place with
the
one
school
of ancient thus
philosophy
to
a
to
stand
by
strict
necessitarianism,
that
returning
had
Epicurus
and
been with
swallow.
hand
Necessitarianism in
materialism
Stoics went
the
hand,
as
by
affinity they
met
should.
revival of learning,Stoicism
because it
with
considerable
favor, partly
to
departed
Aristotle its
give
it the
partly because
well superficialities
DOCTRINE
OF
NECESSITY
EXAMINED
181
acceptance by students
their
art
who
wanted dis
philosophy drawn
in mechanics
coveries
mechanical
might principles
without
suffice to
though
con
since been
in
by subsequent
doctrine
was
advances
evident
to
arose
physics.
in too with
conflict with be
of the first. of
miracles there
generally
that
most
meantime
blunders, philosophical
to belongs intrinsically
the
notion
that
the
materialistic
the
family
of
doctrines; and
libertarianism has
thus
was
theory
At
of
motives; and
historical and in
so
became
present,
criticism that
almost
exploded
of
miracles, great
never
small; so
the doctrine
as now.
necessityhas
been
great vogue
The
proposition in question
any
is that
the state
of
things
laws,
at existing
certain
immutable every
things at
is
other time
to
future time
universe
a
indefensible).Thus,
originalnebula, and
mind
given given
could
of the of from
in the
laws
mechanics,
these data
am
sufficiently powerful
the
deduce
precise form
of every
letter I
now
writing.
of the will
as
act
well
of
as a
every
neces
of the
the
rigid governance
sityco-ordinated cally be
the carried
that
of the
the
proposition that
a sense
part of
of
me
physical world
determine
in such
that
laws
chanics
everything
that
happens
according to
182
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
immutable
instantaneous
attractions
state
and
repulsions. In
which
that case,
other
that
state
of
things from
every
and positions
velocities
usual and
all the
at particles
any
instant.
This,
the
form logical
of
is called necessitarianism,
the mechani
cal philosophy.
When
to
I have
asked
every the
"
thinkingmen
fact in the
answer
reason
they
had
believe that
is
termined the
by law,
a
first
usually been
of postulate
can
is proposition
presupposition
is the
or
tific for
best that
it be
as
"
be said
it,the belief
not
Suppose
so
postulated":
that does
est
make
much
any
afford the
slight
as
rational motive
a man
yielding it
to
credence. and
It is
if for To
should
come
borrow
money, he
no
"
when
"
asked loan. it is
his
"
security,should
"
reply
postulated
more
the
postulate
There upon if
propositionis
than
to
hope
in
true.
we
are,
indeed, practicalemergencies
certain
can
which
act
assumptions of
are
propositionsas
no
true,
how
because
we
they
not
so, it
make take
difference be
no
act.
But
all such
propositionsI
For
to
hypotheses
universal
a
of
individual
facts.
in its
it is manifest
that
in
special
be
To
validityof
the lever
any
ordinary
inference.
instance, that
of the with who
demonstration
would fall to
by
the
Archimedes
the
were
property
endowed
ground
if
men
proposition postulateof
of
incompatible with
all inference.
the
freedom
of the that
Considering, too,
conclusions
DOCTRINE
OF
NECESSITY
EXAMINED
183
and probable,
at most
science
make
no
pretence
a
to
being
more
than
can
considering that
suppose
probable inference
to
only
something
be
most
never
or frequently,
otherwise is
that
anything
precisely
see
without
how
propositionin
whole
is from
a
being so postulated.
involved in
the
notion
postulate being
and
by-gone
false
conception of
of three
is ampliative inference,
induction,hypothesis, and
other
analogy.
If
there
be
modes, they
must
be
extremely unusual
with
and
may
as
be assumed
those
little doubt
For
be of the
same
nature
enumerated. far
as
induc
analogy, as
is, so
far
as
their
ampliative something
goes,
that the
they conclude
upon
one
implied in
the
same
and principle
All
are
inferences essentially
at
some
sampling. Suppose
wheat cargo that in bulk. be
ship
arrives
Suppose
up
that
by
stirred
with
equally
the
from
starboard, depth,
center, and
and and
to be
parts, and
top, half
lower the of
parts of her
hold,
and
these
being mixed
are
four-fifths
we
of the
latter
found pro
grain in
ex
quality.
and perientially
provisionally. By saying
mean
infer
no
it
experientiallyI
,
that
our
conclusion
makes
pre-
84
to
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
our wheat-in-itself,
tension
as
knowledge
of
the
derivation wheat.
of that
word
are
implies,has
nothing
the
to
do
with of of
latent
We
"
dealing only
the
with
matter
experience, possible
the
term
as as
experience in
not
full acceptation
senses
something
but also
hidden
any up
wheat in the
"
on nor
ship, so
heard of
that
it
can
sample
or
be
subsequently from
that it may,
"
purchasers,
up, but
our or
if it be
so half-hidden,
indeed, turn
or
is less
senses
likelyto
and
our
do
so
than
if it
can
affect
cause
pockets,but
cannot
some
strange
"
causelessness
is to be
be
reasoned
about,
its
all such
wheat in
excluded
(or
true to
have
only
proportionalweight)
to
which
we
our
seeks
approximate.
mean
that do
draw hold
inference
we
not
have
assigned degree
if
our
of
approximation
yet, but
only
hold
experience be indefinitely
nature, as
to
extended, and
if every
fact of whatever
fast
as
it
the
our
inductive
ratio,then
in the
approxi
run; that close
close indefinitely
long
is to say,
close to the of
a
experience to
finite
come
(not merely
that if
by
in
to
the exhaustion
so collection)
experience
a manner
general is deprive
able
to
to
fluctuate ratio
out
to irregularly
and
fro,in
the
sought
of
value,we
what
shall it
be
find
approximately
one
limits
definite
to
value, it changes
find that out, and of this ratio in
another,
we
short, whatever
may
variations
DOCTRINE
OF
NECESSITY
EXAMINED
185
us
will enable
detect
them,
value
so
as
to
its
may
be,
law
value, or
may
the be
ultimate
any
of succession
values
it
be,
if
such
ultimate
law,
or
ultimately fluc
do
so no
certain
if it limits,
ultimately
more
fluctuate. thus
claiming to inference,
be
than
no
and experiential
postulatewhatever.
For what is
a
postulate?
we are
of
ma
not
premise,
an
which
is
requisiteto might
it would
the be
validityof
inference.
supposed postu
lated,must
itself in need
we
be such
that
ultimatelypresent
we itself,
not.
If it will present
our
not
in
since provisionalinference,
to
use
shall
never
ultimatelybe entitled
would but
it
as
premise.
But
if it
conclusion otherwise
is valid than
ence
of possibility
this fact
as we
being
assumed,
goes, and
cut
is,it
is valid
far
as
possibleexperi Thus,
every the
that
claim.
postulate is
off,either by
our
or provisionality by
inference.
For
instance,it
an
has
been
postulatesthat,if
indefinite
succes
sion of
samples
the
next
as
thrown
back every
each
before
then
in the
long run
grain
often
any
is to say, in which
to
postulates
any But
are
numbers
two
no
indefinitely approximate
for
unity. hand,
we
such
postulateis made;
if,on
the
one
to
86
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
have
no
other
experience
of
the
wheat
than
from
such
drawings, it is the
and
not
drawings
the
ratio which
we are
belongs
to
the
to
wheat
in its latent
existence
on
that
endeavoring
is
our some
the
other is to
hand,
come
there
other
by
which
the
an
wheat other up
under
knowledge, equivalentto
our care
kind
of
sampling,so
some
in
stirring
them others
to
the wheat,
often will be
must
than
sure
long run, by
sort
this very
get
discovered
of every
the inductive
of
which
avail itself
was
experience; and
which inference,
itself at last.
under
Again, it has
been
that said,
induction will
as
like circumstances
at bottom
like events
the is
a same
happen,
that this
postulateis
causation.
But
blunder, or
where
bevue, due
the
to
ductions
any under such
concluded
proposition were
postulated, it
would of
be
like circumstances
(the circumstances
events
occur a no
drawing
same
in the
portions in
false and
even
all the
different But
sets,
"
proposition which
such
absurd.
in truth of
the if
a
inference
certain
of
result does
occur,
assured
be asked
of
a
conceivable
to
every
as
be
ever
employed
datum
of induction
while character,
every
instance
DOCTRINE
OF
NECESSITY
EXAMINED
187
the the
destined
character.
not
to
be
so
employed
is that
should in that
have case,
opposite
instances
not
The from in
answer
excluded
would
be be
experienced
among
not
of
the
word, but
our
would
these
latent individuals
to
of which
conclusion
does
pretend
To
speak.
of the rationale mention: which
to
this account
one
I know
of
but
objectionworth
the full
I thus
fail to
degree of force
that
of inference
no
fact
possesses; and
according
the of
view,
matter process
thorough
elaborate
and stirring
a
mixing
been,
not
the
examination
me
single handful
sufficient to
not
of
grain
give
the value
any
assurance, would
that
next
handful
greatly modify
concluded the
assurance
of the be
inquiry,while, in fact,
that of this ratio
was
would
error.
high
ratio
not
greatly in
were
If the
grains of qualityA
a
0.80 such
to
and
the
handful
out
contained
ten
thousand
contain
grains,
from
nine
handfuls
of every
would
answer
780
820
The when
we
to this is that
correct
know
independence
been
for instance
stirring
been
complete
and
sampled
for has
settled But in
upon
so
in advance
as
examination
are
of the known
to
sample.
be
com
far
these
conditions
cease figures
not
to be
applicable.Ran
character
sampling
and
predesignationof the
be striven be
sampled
reasoning,
always they
cannot
after in inductive
so long as attained,
it is conducted
88
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
honestly,the
not
retains
some
When
or
we
can
ascertain
sampling
has
the
sample-
character
induction selected,
still has
essential
validity
which
I do
my
not
present
think with
a
account
a man
it to have.
a
willingnessto be
argument
which have upon been
convinced
a
power
appreciating an
reasons
difficult
to
subject can
that
as
resist the
given
not
show
the
principleof
a
universal
necessitycan
But then
to
be defended
being
postulateof reasoning.
arises whether it is not
the be
question immediately
true, or
at
proved
observa
least
rendered
highly probable,by
not
long
to
arrest
person
reflect upon
the
force
of scientific
reasoning.
certain how
the
positionis
exact
that
continuous
can a
values.
a
Now,
observation
of such
one
quantity with
is behind the
probable error
and knows
absolutelynil?
that the
most
who
refined
comparisons of
lengths,and
measurements,
that
the accuracy
of bankof
accounts, and
ordinary determinations
from with
an
physi
in the
appear
a
month
to
month
about
par
measure upholsterer's
ments
of
carpets and
curtains, the
in the is
a
idea
of
mathematical
appear of
"
exactitude
being
demonstrated There
laboratory will
simply mating
method
ridiculous. the of
recognized method
errors
probable magnitudes of
least makes squares. the
errors
in
physics,
It is
universally admitted
than
this method
smaller
they reallyare;
DOCTRINE
OF
NECESSITY
EXAMINED
189
yet
is
even
error
small indefinitely
statement
a
indefinitely improbable;
a
that
any
to
the
effect that
certain continuous
at
quantityhas
be founded
certain exact
on
value, if well-founded
other than
am
must all,
something
observation.
I Still, certain
obligedto
admit
subjectto
a
2
qualification. Namely,
certain
one or
quantity. Now,
discontinuous the rule must
not
kinds
at two
of continuous
and limits,
quantity
for such
a
are
at
limits
can
be modified.
zero. a
Thus,
the
lengthof
line
be
less than
a
how
long
a
line
had
drawn
from
can
marked
point on
observed vation smallest But
piece of
line at all
lengthis
warrants
the
only conclusion
is that the
length of
the for
length visible
with
"
employed.
the person
indirect
to
observations,
have paper,
so
"
supposed
feet of
at all was
zero.
drawn may;
the
line
it
within
that be
no
fifty
line
the
make
probable
made,
length will
doubt would
strictly
warrant
a
In
experience no
is
the conclusion
ear
there
no absolutely
indigo in
in
a
given
of
wheat,
absolutelyno
can
attar
given lichen.
valid
But tive
upon
such
inferences
only
be
or
rendered
by posi
rest
remote, and
cannot
mere
reason we
to inability
to
detect there
We
have
think
indigo
in the
wheat,
is pro-
because
have
remarked
that
wherever
indigo
to
Continuous
is not
but
I let it go
avoid
long and
irrelevant discussion.
9o
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
duced
it is
one
produced
in considerable
to quantities,
to
mention
is be
no
only
attar
argument.
the
We
have
reason
think
seem
there
to
in
lichen,because
essential
oils
in
to singlespecies. generalpeculiar
If the
or
question had
the
been
whether
there
was
iron
in the
wheat
lichen,though
we
chemical should
almost way
or
analysis should
think
some
fail to
detect
was
of it
probably
any
there, since
is
everywhere.
the
we other,
Without
such
information, one
any
from
opinion as
to the
presence
of the
in
are
question.
in any
It cannot, I
conceive,be maintained
than
or
better
position
this in
regard
to
the presence
law
of the element
in nature.
of chance
spontaneous
Those
departures from
which
are
observations
adduced generally
prove that
no
in favor
is
an
of mechanical
ment
ever
causation
simply
there
ele
of upon
in nature, regularity
and
have such
bearing
what
exact
the
questionof
not.
whether
in
regularityis
this
and
or universal,
Nay,
regard to
to
exactitude,all
that be
can ex
observation
be said
is
opposed directly
a
it; and
the most
can
is that away.
good deal
to
plained
Try
the
more
of nature, and
you
more
to
show
to
irregulardepartures
ascribe
the
not
accustomed
errors errors
these, and
we
wrongly,to
of
observation;yet
in any far
cannot
usually
account
Trace
to
or
back
enough,
due
to
forced
they
always
arbitrary determination,
it may
be
asked
whether
if there
were
an
element
DOCTRINE
OF
NECESSITY
EXAMINED
191
of real chance
in the
universe effects
to
it must such
as
not
occasionallybe
not
productive
observed.
of In
signal
answer
could
pass
un
this
question,without
stopping
to
point out
one
that be
there
is
an
abundance
were
of great events
which
might
tempted
remark
to suppose
be of
simplest to
gases
are
that about
hold physicists
particles
if
moving
and
as irregularly, substantially
by real chance,
there
must
that
by
the
principlesof probabilities
of heat
occasionally happen
contrary
to be concentrations
in the gases
to the second
law
of
thermodynamics,
and
must
these
sometimes
effects.
Here, then,
no
is
in substance
ever
the very
situation
we
supposed; yet
forced which
phenomena
to such
have
resulted which
of
are
to attribute
chance
concentration
ever
heat, or
of
anybody,
for in that
not
wise
manner.
or
has foolish,
In view
dreamed
accounting
of all these
not
believe that
anybody, ing
the
in
state
ignorance respect
that is the
logicof science,can
conformity
of
precise and
or
universal
even
facts
law
clearlyproved,
any
rendered made.
probable,by particularly
In this way,
soon
observations
hitherto
exact
reasons
the
advocate
to
a a
of
regularitywill
to
find
himself These
priori
soc-
support
Stuart
to
such of
dolager from
that
in his Examination
seems
Hamilton,
a
holding
of
them
to
me so
to
denote I
high
degree
them To tion
imperviousness
little notice.
we
to
reason;
that
shall pass
by
say is
no
with
that
cannot
argument,
but
conclusive
fact
if it be
92
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
true;
true
and in the
with mouths
the
substitution of several
of
"I" of
for
"we,"
the
it is
classes
minds,
and
blindly
per But turned is
passionate, the
son
ignorant,
before
the
who which
has
overwhelming
been
his eyes.
that
out
has
inconceivable the
morrow.
to-day
has
often
indisputable on
a
to Inability
man
conceive
in
only
to a
every
must
pass
regard
number
beliefs,
"
unless His
endowed
with
extraordinary
enslaved is
obstinacy
to
sure some soon
obtuseness.
understanding is
a
blind
to
compulsion which
cast
vigorous
mind
pretty
off. up the
a
Some
seek
to back
prioripositionwith empirical
of regularity beliefs have is
some
arguments.
is
a
They
say
the world
natural
and belief,
generally
reason
been this.
confirmed Natural of
by experience.
beliefs, however,
There if
in
a
purification
are un
mechanics
doubtedly
lations
natural
of them
to
exceedingly erroneous.
in natural of beliefs
general
case
approximation
of the
truth
is,in fact,a
to
general adaptation
or
genetic products
the
as
recogniz
of
are
able
utilities and
ends.
Now,
adaptations
nature,
never
beautiful found
to
often
marvelous
they verilyare,
the any
be
quite perfect; so
absolute of the exactitude
that of
argument
natural
is
quite
against
the
in belief,
cluding that
Another absolute
rent
principleof
or
causation.
argument,
chance
convenient
commonplace,
word has
is that
is inconceivable.
(This
eight cur
significations.The
Century
Dictionary
enumerates
DOCTRINE
OF
NECESSITY
EXAMINED
193
six.)
to
Those in what
who
talk
like
this will
mean
hardly
chance
be
persuaded
say
sense
they
do
that
is inconceiv shown
statement not
able. that
Should
they
no
so, it would
reason
easily be
for which the
either
or
they
have
sufficient
of
that the
is inconceivability is non-existent.
a
kind
does
prove
that chance
Another
prioriargument
it may of
is that chance
is
unintelligible;
does
perhaps
reason
be
conceivable,it
or
disclose since
a
to
the eye
the how be
why
of
things;
as
and
hypothesis can
phenomenon
only
so justified never
far
can
it
renders
any
some
we intelligible,
have the
right
to
suppose
absolute
in nature. with
two
chance
to
enter
into may
productionof anything
considered of in connection far
as
This
others.
argument
be
Namely,
instead
can
going so
to
say used
that the
to
of supposition any
are
chance
never
properly
be
be
explain
no
observed
known in
fact, it
such
may
a
allegedmerely
in
that any
facts way
which
supposition could
help
explaining. Or
it may
weakened,
are
be
departures
is not
a
law
not
unmistakably ought
not
un
causa,
a
and
be
introduced
into
hypothesis. require us
my It
to
mean
arguments, and
examine
little more
learn from
closely. Come,
your
a
superior op
seems
ponent, let
that every
wisdom.
to
me
throw
of sixes with
pair of dice
is
manifest
instance
of chance. you
"While
would
hold
a
"
throw
of
deuce-ace
to
be
brought about
remarks
are
by necessity?
in
(The opponent'ssupposed
placed
quotationmarks.)
194
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
Clearlyone
"
throw think
is
as
much
chance
are
as
another.
different nature
Do
you
throws
"
of dice
of
from I
ness
"
other
see
events?
that I must
say
and specificaldiversity
is attributable to
then, deny
that there
is
undeniable. clearly
I must that
acknowledge
every
event
there
is in
fluenced
by
it.
But
the
case
in which
this element
is par
obtrusive. ticularly
"
If you is you
reflect
more
deeply,you
for
we a cause no
will
come
to
see
that
chance
Do
only a
mean
name
to us."
that
have
a
what
kind
of
causes
"
could
bring about
laws."
throw
moves
On
die
influence
of
precisemechanical
But it appears up
to me
made
when
sixes;for
up.
justthe
same
throws
and
come
The
chance
lies in the
to
of diversity which
are
throws;
this
cannot diversity
be due
laws
immutable.
"
The
due
to the
diverse circumstances
in differently These
to
under
which and
The
dice lie
the
are
box,
the
the motion
causes name
givento
which of
the box
is different. the
unknown
we
produce
not
throws, and
which which
are
give the
chance;
the mechanical
causes.
law
see
regulatesthe operation of
to already beginning
these
more
You
you
think
about clearly
this
subject."
DOCTRINE
OF
NECESSITY
EXAMINED
195
Does
the
operationof
mechanical
law
not
increase
the
diversity?
"
Properly not.
of
a
You
must
know
that
the
instantaneous
as
state
many
numbers
of
there
are
for the
more
each
ponents
expresses the kind
same
velocity.
of
This
of the
numbers,
system,
which
the amount
at
remains
some
all times.
be,
to
be
and
sure,
of
relation between
different
co-ordinates
means a
component
of which the
velocities of the
state
by particles,
expressedby
a
smaller
number
of numbers.
But, if this
is the case,
correspond precisely
the co-ordinates
and
ing relationshipmust
component
doubtless trinsic
exist between
any other
velocities at be
a
time, though
to
us. same
it may the in
relation of the
less obvious
Thus,
at
now
complexity
system is the
we
Very well,my
issue. universe there
was
obliging opponent,
all the in
have
You
were a
think
of arbitrary specifications
one
the
introduced
that
varietyand
as
complica
it is
now.
always been
just as much
I, for
my
part, think
been
to
that the
has fication,
condescend
reasons
as
ask
why
so
think, I
should
give
which
an
course
of
Consider
a
the
individual
or
plant,
insti
of
mind.
Glance
the
history of states,
Examine
of
the successions
of
196
forms
set
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
shown in
the
globe
as
forth
out
is able
to
make
concerning
the main and
changes
is
of and
stellar
systems.
Everywhere
fact
growth
mere
plexity. Death
dary phenomena.
is
a
of the
organisms, it
be
moot
point
to
with
anything
not
ought
out
be called
under
Races,
any
rate, do
except
and
unfavorable
facts
we
From
broad
ubiquitous
fairlyinfer,by
is
the
most
some
probably
in
nature
by
which
the
complexity and
that in
diversity
the
of
things
of
be
increased; and
consequently
some
rule
mechanical
necessity
meets
way
with
interference.
(2) By
acter
thus
life
as
char
of the
universe,acting always
within
narrow
bounds law
by
departures from
ones
variety and
which the for. multi its
me
of diversity
universe, in
new can
the be
only
said
sense
in
to
be
accounted
ordinary
view
has
to
admit
the
has
to
inexhaustible
tudinous chanical
variety of
law
cannot
the
world,
admit
in
that
account
for
this
the
least,that
yet denies
variety can
without
any
spring only
evidence
or
from
reason
existence
of this spon
time my and
it back
beginning of
since.
The
of logic superior
view
controverted. easily
DOCTRINE
OF
NECESSITY
EXAMINED
197
(3)
the
me
When
I ask
the necessitarian
how
he would
explain repliesto
and diversity
out
of irregularity
the universe,he
that
of
is irregularity
we
something which
seek
to
the
nature at
of
things
to
must
not
con
this,I
seek
cover
my
fusion
would
tells me
that
the
no
immutable
and
ultimate
But my
a
and facts,
account
is to
be
given
of
them.
hypothesis
certain
of
spontaneity does
that
sense;
though irregularity,
is to of
not, of course,
same room as
lawless
be.
At
the
time, by
for the
seems
bond
kind
influence
to
in the
formation
how
of uni
and associations,
to
understand
the
formity
of
nature
have hard
been
and do
brought about.
That
should
logicwill unintelligible,
not
we difficulty:
expect
to
make
the
of
personallyexperiencedearthquake
appear
natural
reasonable
by
any
amount
of
cogitation.
But To
logic
say
understandable.
that it is
a
that there
universal
law, and
and
a
hard,ultimate,
of
wherefore
sound
which
can
be
and which
at
once
to
method
road
philosophizing discovery.
short of mak
thus
barricade
cannot
the
logically stop
mind
a
the
we
part of the
what
we are
physical going
to
universe.
Our
that
decide
I98
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
do, if
as
the necessitarian
says, it has
to
been
calculable
since
the earliest
ness
times, is reduced
thus
illusion.
a mere
Indeed, conscious
of
are a
in
general
system.
becomes
we
illusory aspect
and The
material in
What
call
red, green,
violet
sole and
rates
of vibration.
matter
reality
time. of
of qualities
a
in space
protoplasm in
a
certain
degree
and
kind
complication,^
ticles. Its
certain
arrangement
an
of mechanical
par
feeling is but
and positions the
inward
aspect,
phantom.
any
For, from
one
the
at particles
instant,and positionsat
of
knowledge of
times and
are
immutable
forces,
that the
the
all other
calculable;so
is But
reason are a
universe
space, with
time,
from
matter
rounded the
system
state
uninterfered
elsewhere.
is
no
from
to
of the
feelingat
states
any
instant,there
suppose
instants I
thus
mere
exactlycal fragmentary
then,
culable; so
and
is,as feeling
said, a
This
is the way,
up its accounts. of
It enters
a
the
head
sundries,as
be
out
more
forgotten
scheme
of the universe
would
satisfactory
the
could
be
dropped
of
sight. On
of causation
yield,I
not
how
"
little,
"
be
it but
to
by
strictly
into
infinitesimal amount,
our
we
gain
room
insert
mind
scheme,
the
and
to
it is
needed,
into
position which,
to
the
sole
thing, self-intelligible
fountain of
it is entitled and in
so
occupy,
we
that the
of the
existence;
of
doing body.
resolve
problem
of the connection
soul and
DOCTRINE
OF
NECESSITY
EXAMINED
199
(5)
and
But
I must
leave
undeveloped
it. The
the chief of my
reasons,
can
only
adumbrate whose
out
hypothesis
of
are
chance-
is one spontaneity of
inevitable consequences
mathematical of this I have with
capable
con
being traced
detail.
to
to
with
precision into
done facts the have and
to
an
siderable
Much
agree
me
find
the
consequences
observed
But
extent
which
methods
seems
remarkable.
are
matter
no
and
of
reasoning
novel, and
right to
deductions
reason
promise
as
that other
mathematicians
I
shall find my
that the
as satisfactory
myself do, so
strongest
a
for my of my
belief must
own,
privatereason
I mention
to
and
own
influence
others.
it to future time my
explain my
mathematical and
position;and
a speculators
partly to indicate
veritable
goldmine,should
all
circumstances
and
the
abridgerof
joys prevent
opening
If he
now
it to the world.
I, in
my
why
to
prefers to
suppose
specification goes
answer me
back
one
the
beginning of things,he
last three he First,
will
with
of
those
arguments
may say
which that
is
we
thing absolutely un
can
never
be
this
entitled
make
such
supposition. impudence?
But
does
not
objection
own
smack
of nai've
It is not
mine,
it is his
to
conception of
the universe
which
leads abruptly up
hard,
and
immutable ultimate,inexplicable,
to
law, on
the
one
hand,
diversification of circum
on
stances
the other.
at
My
view,
it be in
some
hypothethat
to
tises
nothing
all,unless
about
hypothesis to
sense,
all
be
came specification
and
is not
200
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
accepted
as
unaccountable.
To
undertake
it is due
not
a
to
account
for
to
chance
I make
would,
use
this I do
room
do.
of
to chiefly
for
or tion, tendency to
produced
the
all
regularities. The
whole
which chance.
to
for,
it to
nearly
as
boldly attribute
altogetherto chance,
of
a
it is true, but
chance
spontaneitywhich
me
is to
rate
some one
degree regular.
of these
must
to
clear
at
any else
that
two
positionsmust
due
to a
be
taken, or
specification
be
supposed
and
spontaneitywhich
way,
in
certain
not
in
by
an as
Hegel.
the
This
I leave
as as
open
possi
to
present;
scheme
for it is
much my
opposed
own
the is.
of existence may
theory
Secondly, the
no
necessitarian
are, at any of
rate,
observed aid in of
to
which In
hypothesis
chance
could
nomenon
to the
phe
ap
developing complexity,which
which
pears
an
be
though
it may
possibly be
all the is
affair of mechanism of
appearance
increasing diversification.
the
most
can
there char
obtrusive
account
most
no
Then, there
upon,
necessitarian which
the
to
regularityof
the road
the of
universe
only
block
inquiry. Then,
the laws of
the simi-
nature,
DOCTRINE
OF
NECESSITY
EXAMINED
201
larities and
comparative characters,which
its and cousins, call upon
us
appeal
for
a
to
our
as intelligence
reason.
is
fact
enough,
very
inconvenient
to
philosopher.
is not
a
Thirdly, the
vera
necessitarian
we
may
chance
causa,
that
cannot
know
But with
once
there positively
the doctrine
is any
vera
such
causa
element has
to
in the universe.
of the
nothing
that
a
to
do
elementary conceptions.
cuts
extreme,
it at
of
material
universe; and
maintain be its
without
could
a
hardly
ground.
and
Besides, va
the
riety is
chance
not
must
admitted;
theory
of
merely
in
supposing Moreover,
nowhere of
does
antedate
all time.
hy
act
known positively
not logic,
a
to
"
is
only
recommendation
positivecom
with
as
mand.
out
It cannot
once
be formulated
in any
precise terms
"
at
betrayingits
as a
untenable
character,
it is wholesome
to
to
mean
rigidrule,for
I believe the
recommendation thus
enough.
all uni
I have
reasons
subjected
for
important
adhering
shown any
theory
of
versal
have
their flaw
nullity. I earnestly
in my
beg
that whoever
out to me,
detect
reasoning will
if I
am
point it
wrong, my
either
it much
concerns
to
be
set
right speedily.
If
argument
the
remains
doubt
and any
absolute
once
truth
a
universal
law;
in
when man's
such
my
doubt
cause
has with
livingroot
mind,
him,
persuaded, is
gained.
III.
THE
LAW
OF
MIND1
IN
an
article
published
to
in what
The
Monist
for
to
January,
form the
1891,
warp
I endeavored of that
a
show
ought
system
of
of
philosophy,
chance. in favor
to
particularly
number
way of of
emphasized
I it
absolute
further convenient student
In of
April, 1892,
argued
will be A
that
thinking, which
rux^7,
in
see
no
christen of
tychism
(from
be will
chance).
haste it
one
serious
or
philosophy
doctrine; but
will he
to
accept
the
reject
this
in
of
chief
which for
an
speculative thought
individual,
nor
may
an
take,
age,
to
feeling
pronounce That is
that
for of
fundamental
a
question
to
philosophy.
I have
task that in
for
whole
era
work birth
out. to
an
begun
by showing
tychism
all
as
must
give
evolutionary
and of
cosmology,
mind
are
which
the
regularities of
of
nature to
mere a
regarded
idealism
products
holds
mind. curious reared in
growth,
to
and
Schellingspecialized
fashioned
and
which
matter
be
partially deadened
those I
was
I may
mention,
mental
for the
bene
fit of that I
who born in
are
studying
biographies,
of
and
in the
at
neighborhood
the time when
Concord,
"
mean
Cambridge,
friends
"
Emerson,
ideas that
Hedge, they
from the had
and
their
were
disseminating
Schelling
what East.
the from
caught
or
from from
Schelling, and
God of knows the
Plotinus.
with
Boehm,
monstrous
minds
But
stricken
mysticism
July,
1892.
the
atmosphere
The
Monist,
202
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
203
of
Cambridge
held
many I
am
an
antisepticagainst Concord
not
transcendentalism;and
tracted
some was
conscious
of is
having
con
any
of that virus.
some bacilli,
Nevertheless,it benignant
form and
probable
the now,
that
cultured
of that
disease
after mathe
implanted in
my
soul,unawares,
to the
modified surface,
by
conceptions and
by trainingin physicalinvestiga
be to
ex
the
general law
drop
of mental my
action.
out
In
doing this,I
order
con
tychism
of
view, in
to
to
free
and
independent expansion
my first Monist
another
as was one
ception signalizedin
most
paper it
of
the
not
there
dwelt
to
as
upon;
mean
of
continuity.
in which in The
The
tendency it,
in regard continuity,
an
sense
I shall define
con
idea
of
prime importance
philosophy may
present paper
what
be veniently
tended
to.
termed show
a
synechism.
what
is in
it leads this
to chiefly
attempted,
good
develop
able
now
to
little blinded
by nominalistic
may
prepossessions.I
that
some are
refer
to
it,because
students
possiblyfind
in the
points not
cleared
up
explained sufficiently
in those earlier
ones.
present paper
WHAT
THE
LAW
IS
Logicalanalysisapplied to
there is but
one
mental
phenomena
that
shows
tend
that
to
law
of
mind, namely,
ideas
204
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
spread continuously
to
and
to affect certain
others
which
them
in
peculiar
lose
relation
of
In affectibility. power
spreading they
and intensity,
especiallythe
become
but gain generality and affecting others, other ideas. this formula
to at the
welded
convenience
proceed
comment
upon
INDIVIDUALITY
OF
IDEAS
We
are
accustomed
mind in
to
to
speak
as
of ideas similar
were or
as
reproduced,as
to
one
passed
from
mind,
dissimilar
another, and,
nor can
short, as
if
they
substantial raised
to
things;
expres of
an an
any But in
an
reasonable
objection be
word
"
such
sense
sions.
event
once
taking
the
idea
"
in
the
individual
clear that
recurrence
idea of
past is gone
idea. of
forever,and
These
two
supposed
are
it is another
same
not
present in the
cannot
are
state
consciousness,and
To
an
therefore
possibly
similar
can
be
compared.
mean us no
say,
only
that
to
more.
occult power
them may in
the
depths
of the soul
forces both
two
connect
thoughts
after
they
are
We
and
former
a
is
due power
to
power
without, the
But what
connection
to
within.
are
it
mean
say
ideas
are
thought
able. idea from
of at
all, any
distinct
longer? meaning
way
can
They
attach
an
saying
in the
that
an
past in any
it is
affects
idea A
future,
between
completely detached?
phrase
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
205
the
denial
of which
mere
there
can
in
no
case
gibberish.
this
I will not
upon
point,because
it is
commonplace of philosophy.
CONTINUITY OF IDEAS
We
to the
have
here before
us
question of
been
nominalism
when
once one
it has
answer
.
for
Can
only.
past idea
a
be
present?
it
be present vicariously? To
not
certain
merely
so;
for then
the
past idea
The
can
be
related
its vicarious
representation.
exist in
some
ideas,can
was
only
in
no
consciousness: but
that that did
that
past idea
that
consciousness
past consciousness
not
alone
idea.
contained
it; and
embrace
the
vicarious
to
Some
minds in
will here
any
sense
jump
be
that is
past
idea
and
cannot
present.
that
hasty
our
How illogical.
extravagant,
be
as a
too, to
mere
pronounce Yet
whole
would
knowledge
seem
delusion!
it
that
past
is
completely beyond
Kantian Not
the
bounds
How
of
can
possibleexperience as
a
thing-in-itself.
vicariously.Then,
be be
only by
it must
,
direct be
can
perception.
In
other That
words, to
it is,
cannot
present,
wholly
past; it
than
the any
assignable past
that the
thus
brought
the
to
conclusion
r
present is connected
with
past
by
206
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
It has
already been
con
sciousness
if
a
interval
not
of
time.
But If the
were
finite time
that
opinion is
tenable.
a same
sensation
precedes
present by half
second
then,
on
the
principle
be
immediately present,
there
no
ad
since idea
is
time, say
at
the end
is
present, it follows
however But of
this is true
of any
interval,
short.
yet consciousness
for if it did
not
must
we
cover essentially
an
interval
time;
not,
no
could
gain
no
knowledge
of
no
time, and
merely
veracious
conception
that
we are
whatever.
We
are,
to
say
immediately conscious
infinitesimal
interval of time.
This is all that is
requisite. For,
in
this infinitesimal
in
or a
not interval,
only
that
is consciousness
as
continuous
a
subjec
tive sense,
is, considered
of
subject
substance
it is
duration;
but
also,because
is
direct further
spread
This
will be
we
below.
the
"
In
an
infinitesimal of
interval
directlyperceive middle,
and
temporal
sequence in the
its
beginning,
of
end,
not, of course,
the
way
recogni
way of
past, but
in the
immediate
whose middle
feeling.
Now
upon
follows and
another,
whose
an
beginning
is the end
is the of
middle former.
former,
we
the
Here,
have
im-
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
207
mediate
perceptionof
the
or
temporal
say of
two
sequence
of its
begin
end,
From
the
second, third,and
perceptions,
instants.
a
these
immediate
gain
perception is objectively,
over
to
the object
spread represented,
as
the
four
in
it is reader
completely embraced
will observe that
moment
in I
use
(The
to
mean a
the word
mean an
instant
to
infinitesimal dura
If it is have
more
the
theory proposed,
the
succes
must
mediate
of perception the
sum
intervals
so infinitesimal,
immediately perceived.
whole thirds
immediately perceivedin
interval.
Now,
let there
acts
be
indefinite
percep ob
an
succession
of these it is
inferential
of
comparative
tion; and
plain that
will contain
whole
series.
a
be,
not
merely
of
succession,but
a
continuous
flow
a
inference
ob
through
the
mediate
jectiveconsciousness
In
or
recognized,
known
before,except only
which
will be
unrecognizable to absolutely
will be
to
Indeed,
rest, or,
recognized like
be
so.
at
There
ordinary logicof
quite suffices
resolve.
208
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
INFINITY
AND
CONTINUITY, who
IN
GENERAL
Most
of
the
mathematicians treated
an
during
the
opinion that
infinitesimal
quantityis an absurdity;
have often added
so
although,with
"
their habitual
caution,they
an
or, at
any
infinitesimal is
about
cannot practically
reason
it with of
and been
doctrine
as some
evade
the
difficulty, or,
"
the word
infinitesimal."
in all the
doctrine,in
form
some answers
or
though text-books,
view of the matter;
in it
of them well
alternative of
enough
calculation,though
difficulties.
The the that
even
in
that
it application
its
illumination
of the
subject by
shown
me
strict notation
for
logicof
the idea
relatives had
of
an
clearly and
no
evidently
infinitesimal with
involves the
contradiction,
Dr.
before I became
Cantor
acquainted
writings of
Georg
in the
not
(though many
Annalen
of these and
had
already appeared
Mathematische
Journal, if
Mathematica,
which and
journals of
is defended
first
in distinction),
view
penetrating logic.
are
the
only
about,
some
least,in
express about
any
ordinary
are
mode the
reasoning, or,
that
authors reasoned
it,they
mathemati I
only numbers
But this
be
cally.
is
an
irrational
prejudice.
long
ago
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
209
showed
ones
are
infinite
only by
to
circumstance
and
namely,
mode the
"
that
them
is
of
reasoning logism
of
called
by
its
discovererrDe
Morgan,
syl
transposed quantity."
of his Frenchman du mariaget Physiologic boasts
as more
a
every
young
of
having se
only be
than
no
Now,
no
woman
can
once, it
Frenchwomen
are
Frenchmen,
French
women
follows, if
escape holds.
these
boasts
If
true, that
number
seduction. But
their
be
con
since the
are
population is
on
tinuallyincreasing,and
younger In like than the
the
seduced
the
not
average be
true.
seducers,the
De
conclusion
as an
need
manner, that if
an
Morgan,
argued
an
insurance than
its insured
on
average
more
they
ever
it interest, would
on see a
must
lose money.
every
actuary
fallacyin that,since
But
to
the business
or
continually
the increase.
should
war,
other
cause cataclysm,
be
finite one,
all.
would
reason
out
above
two
ings are
The
proposition that
collections
of the
as
are
former
syl
the
logism
basal
If I must
"
of
to be
regarded
one a
person say
does
a
not
know
how
to
reason
and logically,
that
great many
"
yea,
distinguished ones,
category, but
210
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
simply
uses
in
inferences
have
out
about reason,
bers.
people
do
not
all.
But
reasoning about
infinite numbers
is easier than
about
that that
a
the
whole
eminently
Euclid, made
means
it to
It is
theorem
readily proved by
not
of Of
syllogism
transposed quantity,but
otherwise.
finite collec
Thus,
Yet
an
part
even
numbers
no
are
even
numbers.
the
numbers
fewer
than
all the
numbers;
in the
evident series of
proposition since
whole
even
if every
number
whole
numbers numbers.
be
doubled,the
result will be
the series of
1, 2, 3,
4,
5,
10,
a
6,
etc.
2, 4,
6, 8,
is
So for every
there fact,
are are
number
as
there
number.
as
In there
are
many
distinct doubles
But the
of numbers
of distinct numbers.
even
doubles
of numbers
all
In
of truth,
but
two
grades
as a
the innumerable.
an
Just
one
is
from distinguished
a
infinite
by
the
it of
specialmode
as
of
reasoning,the syllo
in the paper
gism
of
I showed is
last referred
an
collection
from distinguished it of
a
innumerable
by
the
to applicability
certain
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
211
mode
of
reasoning, the
Fermatian
"
inference,or,
mathematical
as
it is
sometimes As
an
improperly termed,
induction."
demonstration may
example
of this
reasoning, Euler's
for
theorem
integral powers
"
be given.
is that
(x + y)n, where
sum
is
whole
number,
of which from the
expanded
of
the first is
next
xny" and
of the
others
by
and
multiplyingby
time increas
that
of y
by
dividingby
to proposition
increased
true true
Now,
suppose
"
=
this
,
be
for
exponent, +
i.
If
one
then
of the
it must
terms
also be
in the
for of
For
let
expansion
with
(x + y)" be
will following
written
A"y*.
Then,
this term
the two
be
P
x
Axpy"
"L"
p-l
q+l
P
" "
P-Z
x
"+2
g -Hi
g +
x
ig +
Now,
we
when
(x + y)* is multipliedby
x
y to
give (x -f y)*+1,
of
multiply first by
results. three
terms
and
we
then
by
y instead
by
and
add
When
multiplyby
the only
one
x, the
second
term
of the
will be
giving a
involv
term
ing xpy*+1and
only one
givinga
in
xp-iyv+z-and when
term term
multiplyby
only
givinga
giving a
term
in in
will be the
only
we
term
terms, and
of the
coefficients of the
Hence,
be
successive terms
in the
212
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
h*]
-A*.
/" +
q +
a+i
A A-
/" +
^ +
f
? +
I
p ""
9+
2
P-I *
"+2
"y
0+1 It
is, thus,seen
if any
next
of terms the
follows
Thus the
integralpower
power.
rule,so
higher
first power do
so.
obviously
Hence,
all powers
reasoning holds
of
good
in
a so
of
any
collection
of
objects
be
re
capable
being ranged
be numbered
though
member
it may of it
endless,can
ceives whole
a
instance, all
the
numerable
collection.
to
Again,
any
resultingfrom
with any
operating according
of may whole be
num
definite form
bers
in
a
such
collection. Let F
they
of
arranged
First i,
series thus.
on
be the
symbol
operation.
on a
operate
i,
Then, operate
2,
second
giving F(I,I).
introduce
4th
vari
third
giving 7th, F(I,I,I); 8th, F(2,i,i); 9th, F(i,2*i); F(i,i,2); i2th, F(2,i,2);
Next introduce and
new
13
th,
on,
3, and
so
variables
every
figures;and
of
plain
that
arrangement
a
integral place
in
values
of
variables
will receive
numbered
the series.2
The class of endless
can
but
numerable
because they
2
be
so
ranged
that to each
same as a
corresponds
of
This
theorem
Cantor,
though
it is enunciated
much
more
general form.
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
213
distinct whole
number)
are
is very
large.
But
there
are
collections which
certainlyinnumerable.
to
Such
is the
which
endless has
capable of approximating. It
of Euclid and
been
are
the time
incom
mensurable,
series of the
not
exactly expressible by
a
any
finite
is
decimals,
by
decimal. circulating
Such
ratio of the
we
circumference
is
of
which
know has
nearly 3.1415926.
carried
of
to
over
been
slightest appearance
demonstrations
are
in regularity many
that
this and
other numbers
incommensurable incommensurable
perfect.
That
numbers I omit
is innumerable
clearly
proved by Cantor.
to
see
that
to
discriminate
use
from
some
other
would,
in
of
an
endless
series of numbers.
they
cannot cannot
be be
exactlyexpressed and
ranged
are
discriminated,
clearlythey
in
linear series.
It is evident
an
as
many
are
points on
real
line
or
in all.
interval are,
of
there
of
numbers
in
These
innumerable therefore,
collections. Many
that those
mathe
on a
maticians surface
or
have
in
a
incautiouslyassumed
solid
are more
the points
on a
than
line.
But that
refuted
by Cantor.
Indeed, it
there
is obvious is
a
of values
of coordinates
singledis
of the
co
values
if
we
and
i.
Then
number
by putting in
place the
the
214
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
second
coordinate, and
go
on
so
on, and
when
the first
figuresare
to
the
second
figures in
can
like manner, be
or
plain that
the
the values
of the coordinates
so
read tetrad
no
off of
that
triad
numbers,
values Were
and the
having
innumerable
values, has
number. this infinite, of numbers
more
than
singleincommensurable
of dimensions of infinite sets
would
fail;
each
having
innumerable
the
greater than
be
a
simple
might
of such
called collec
endlesslyinfinite. The
tion could
so
singleindividuals
approximately,
it would if at all. of in
be
possibleto
reason are
only
but
when
general way,
of
Although
finite
upon of
there
grades
magnitudes
are
collections, yet
the
certain
conditions
are
imposed
order
in which
individuals
that
cause.
magnitude
simply
into two
endless
series be
by separating each
also the
second which
as
parts
being taken
are
in the
same
from
they
it is
endless
as
will,so long
taken series.
order, appear
manner
twice
as
largeas
of
two
the
original
like
the
product
of
innumerable
collection
of
one
individual
of
each, if
continuityis
to
be
of
of the
come
component
to
collections. is
con
the
tinuity?
Kant
confounds
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
215
that
of
a
continuous
third
can
series is that
between This is
two
members
of it
always be found.
but definite;
For
un ac ar
and
it breaks fortunately,
the
first test.
cording ranged
to
the this,
fractions
magnitude, would
are
be
an
infinite
numerable, while
Nay,
worse
points of
that
line
are
innumerable.
two
yet, if
lie be
with
all that
them
number
of such of the
finite gaps
be made, it has
Kant's
is stilltrue of
series, though
continuity.
series
as one
defines
and
continuous
a
which
he series, in
is
con
perfect. By
if any
two
concatenated
means
that
points are
given
it,and
any
however finite distance, the first point to the of the series each than tional the
at
from
second
a
through
from
succession
of
points
less
ra
the
preceding one
series of
given
distance.
is true order
one so
of the
of their
fractions
ranged
magnitude.
every
By
perfect series, he
that there is
no
means
which
contains
point such
has
tance
o
distance the
not
an
series within
of it.
i
between in which
and
capable
o digits
only
the
occur.
It must
be
granted
that Cantor's
nor can
series that
includes any
is
continuous; important
or
objected
of
a
that
it
indubitable
has
some
series not In
continuous.
Nevertheless,it
serious
defects.
216
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
place,it
turns
upon
a
metrical continuous
while considerations;
and
a
distinction
between
discontinuous
In the next
"
place,a point
per
"
is defined
as
one
containing
no
every is
of of
certain
But
positiveidea
is definition
sort at
conveyed
what
cannot
all the be be
that If that
to
by negation,and
were
of
thing
that
allowed,
continuous
say,
one
once,
the
series of
points is
which
contains
every
point
of
line between
not
its extremities.
a
Finally, Cantor's
notion of what It the
defini compo
tion does
nents
convey
distinct
ingeniously
not
wraps
propertiesin
to
our
two
display them
Kant's
intelligence.
expresses of gaps
one
definition but
simple property
series. how To these
of
con
tinuum;
it allows is
us a
in the
to
mend
gaps
the
can ex
it definition,
occur.
only
necessary
notice linear
Let from
suppose,
then, a
to
a
series of
a a
points
gap
tending
B
to
a
point, A,
and
from
third let
us
point,C,
suppose
thence
final
limit,
D;
and
Kant's
or
defini
must
tion.
Then,
points,B
and
C,
both
points between
is,if
up
to
the series
contains
not
C, though it contains
B. What is
points
B, it can
to to
contain
is required,therefore,
a
state
a
in
non-metrical is included
terms
that
if
points up
is included. of have
a
limit
in
continuum
It may
to
be
remarked
that
property
to
continuum
which
Aristotle's
seems
been
directed
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
217
when have
as a
he
defines
continuum The
as
something
be
whose
parts
common
limit. If
a
property may
of
exactlystated
be
follows:
two
linear
series
points
if
an
is continuous
tween
points, A
the
and
D,
and
endless
A and
one
series of
D and
points be taken,
each then
that
between
and
between
of the
preceding
series such
D,
all
point
continuous
Z", and
every
other and
as
point
D.
For
point
and i,
example, take
number
o.n
number
o.i as
o.i;
then, any
o.n;
then
any
out tween
number end.
o
between
o.m; of
must
and
on, with
Then,
and
i
because is
series
real numbers be
a
be real
continuous, there
every may
least
number, greater
than
number
of that
endless
series.
be called the
of the Aristotelicity
or
series,together completes
The
thus: endless
a
with
Kant's
a
property,
continuous
its
Kanticity,
the
definition of
of
series.
be
property
continuum series of
Aristotelicity may
the end which
roughly
stated
every
contains
point belonging to
An
points
every
it contains. contains
corollaryis
in
that
continuum necessary
to observe
may
limits.
ideas of will find upon
expressionmore
a
convenientlyif,in
of
points
line,we
one
speak
the
real numbers.
a
is^in
sense,
limit of Whether
may
series,
every be
be
real number
limit of
regular series
perhaps
2i
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
open of
to
doubt.
But
to
in the
definition
series that
must Aristotelicity
including all
it is
whether between
can
regularor
any
two
Consequently,
innumerable
implied
points an
series of
points
be taken.
Every number
a
whose of
in expression
decimals
but requires
finite number
places of
decimals
is commensurable.
an
numbers
word
suppose
infinitieth
decimals.
of
The
infinitesimal is
an
is
simply the
formed
con
form
ordinal
infinitum,as
centesimal
from
centum.
Thus,
is
tinuitysupposes
infinitesimal
the idea
quantities.There
of such
nothing
contradictoryabout
and and
quantities. In adding
not
multiplyingthem
the
continuitymust preciselylike
the
be broken other
up,
consequently they
that the
are
any
quan
neither
syllogism of
transposed
them. in
a
Fermatian
inference i A
an
applies to
then infinitesimal, i
=
sense so
may
write
A.
That But
is to this
say,
of measurement.
to
prin
terms
ciplemust
in the
be
applied except
highest order
mathe that
to
of
less infested
some
snares.
Indeed, propositions
stated
in
books,
the
involves
with and
false;but
used
the
this is not
case
the
forms As
of
the method
by Cauchy, Duhamel,
doctrine
others.
the
they
of the
understand
of
it limits,
involves in
notion
continuity,and, therefore,contains
very
same
another
shape
ideas
as
the
doctrine
of infinitesimals.
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
219
Let
us
now
consider is
an
aspect
of
the in
Aristotelical
prin Sup
every
ciple
pose
which
a
particularly important
to
philosophy.
so
surface
on
be
part
red
red
or
and
part
blue;
of
that
no
point
can
course,
part
of the
be
blue.
the
to
then,
the
is the
color
The
boundary
is that red
line
or
between
and
blue? be
is the of
answer
blue,
the
exist of
all,must
surface
spread
color the
over
surface;
surface
and in the
use
color
the
of
immediate
a
neighborhood
form the of
point.
as
purposely
parts
of
vague in
a
expression.
Now,
the
surface
upon
immediate
neighborhood
are
of of
ordinary point
red and and half that half
curved
boundary
that
the
we
half
them red
to
blue,
In
it follows
boundary
find
is half
blue.
like
manner,
it necessary and
hold
consciousness
to
what is
is present
the
a
mind
moment
any in
ordinary instant,
which and that half
at to
is what
occurs.
present
during
the
instant
come.
Thus,
the from
present
of
the has
is half
past
a
Again,
color
a
parts
of
surface do with
any
finite distance
point,
nothing
to
just
at
that
point; and,
from the
in the
finite interval
present
nothing
Take of in
to
do
with
case:
present
feeling,
of
a
except
vicariously.
at
another time
the
velocity
particle
an
any
instant instant
is its
mean
velocity during
time is contained.
an
infinitesimal
so
which my
that
Just
my
immediate duration
feeling is containing
feeling through
present
instant.
in
finitesimal
the
220
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
ANALYSIS
OF
TIME
One
is that from
marked time
to
features have
a
about
the
law
of mind of flow
definite
direction
past
The
relation
of past to from
future
is, in
of be
reference future
tween to
mind,
different
one
the relation
past.
makes and
the law is
no more
of mind
there
moving
moving
of
mind,
we
must
begin by asking
we
what
the
flow
to
of
time
consists
state
in. of
Now, feeling,
find that
are a
in reference of
two
any
all others
classes,those
to
affect this
this
one we
(or
have
tendency
affect those
it,and
which
means
shall
and inquireshortly),
The
present
is affectible
by
the
past but
A
not
by
Moreover,
if state
is affected
by
state
B, and
not
state
so
by
so.
t
state
C,
then
A is affected if A
by
state
C, though
much
It
that follows,
is affectible
by B,
is not
affectible
by
A.
If, of
two
states, each
are
is
absolutely unaffectible by
as
the
to
be
regarded
parts of the
same
state.
contemporaneous.
that and
a
say
one
state
is between
two
states
means
that it
any
two
affects
states
is affected lies
an
by
the other.
Between
in this
sense
innumerable
a
series of states
a
af
one fecting
another; and
other
state
if
state
can
given state
and
any
which
by inserting
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
221
states states
between
not
any
then
the
second
rate
or
is is
affected
by
the
in the first, in
a
that in the
one
the other
reduced
a
degree.
definition of time and
of its
a
involve propositions
Over and above that
flow.
this definition
state
they
involve
doc
trine,namely,
every
every
of
feelingis
affectible
by
earlier state.
THAT
FEELINGS
HAVE
INTENSIVE
CONTINUITY
with
its
some
other
continuity than
Time,
there
as
the
universal
to
of
change, cannot
and be
a
exist unless
to
is
something
continuous
undergo
change
in
continuityof
but
a
intrinsic
form human
feeble
has
conception.
development
of
the
mind
a
cept
few
etc., which
In the
case
appear
to
be
is
disconnected
a
and
disparate.
spread
connected of
of
colors,there
way,
was
and
the
presumption
For
is that
the number
dimensions
a
endless.
involves
number
of dimensions
obtainable Accord
of in of
logically supposes
It
continuous the
range
tensityin feeling.
follows,then, from
definition
222
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
continuity,that
present,
an
when
any
of
feelingis
infinitesimal continuum
that is
feelings differing
from infinitesimally
present.
SPATIAL EXTENSION
THAT
FEELINGS
HAVE
Consider
mould.
contents
gob
of
not
protoplasm,say
differ in any
an
amoeba
way
or
slimethe less
It does of
a
radical
from
be
nerve-cell, though
is
no
may
specialized. There
this
doubt
some
slime-mould,or
of
amoeba, or
That But
at any
rate
similar
protoplasm
con
feels. dition.
how
whole
is
at
quiescent and
this
a place rigid,
Just
point, an
active motion
gradually
relation
It
spreads to
to
a a
other
parts.
other
In this
nucleus, or
mere
unitary
organ of
can
be
discerned.
is
amorphous continuum
one
passing from
like
new a
part to another.
The
fast
out
as
anything
to
wave-motion.
activitydoes
it leaves
a
advance
parts, just as
old parts.
rate
Rather,
in
the it
at
slower
than
that at which
spreads.
mass
while
the process
second In each
is
going
on,
by exciting
state
ex
the
at
another will be
point,a
set
quite independent
some
up.
places, neither
exist,in
others
separately,in together.
both places,
Whatever there
is in the whole
phenomenon
mass
to
make
"
us
think
ing in
such
of
protoplasm,
personality,
"
goes
to logically
show
feelinghas
the excited
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
223
to
state
has.
This
is,no
a
doubt,
difficult idea
an
for seize,
the
reason
that it is that
we
not subjective,
a
extension. objective,
Pro It is
It is not fessor
have
have.
that the
our own we
to
such
degree
an
that
not
aware
not
brought to
ab
solute
unity; just as
has any
nobody
how
instructed
very
by specialex
periment
vision wanders that have the
a
idea
very,
is distinct.
all know
about
among
feelings;and
not
this
fact shows
in attention
those
a same
that feelings
co-ordinated
are
present
at
must
not
tax
to introspection
make
exter
phenomenon
manifest
which
involves essentially
nality.
Since
an
space
is
continuous, it follows
of
that
there
must
be
immediate
community
between feeling
Without for minds
parts of mind
believe
to
one
near infinitesimally
together. impossible
this, I
it
would
have
been
to
external
another,ever
ble for any
become
and co-ordinated,
to
equally impossi
in the action of
coordination of
one
be
established
the nerve-matter
brain.
AFFECTIONS
OF
IDEAS
But that
we one
are
met
by
is meant unravelment
a
by saying
of this
idea
affects another.
to
problem requiresus
Three intrinsic elements
go
trace
to
out
phenomena
up
an
make
idea. second
The
quality as
feeling.
The
is the
224
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
with
which
it affects other
an ideas,
energy
which
is infinite
of immediate of the
to
sensation,finite and
The
past.
is it.
tendency of
an
idea
bring along
of
other
As
idea
spreads,its power
other affecting
gets
its intrinsic
now
quality remains
saw a
nearly
cardinal
become
remem
long years
my memory
robes;
dimmed.
as
color
has
much bered
The
I have
color
no
itself, however,
inclination
to
is not
a
dim.
call it
dull red.
Thus,
more
the
intrinsic
quality remains
will show the other
seems a
little
changed;
yet
of
accurate
observation
slightreduction
has the
it.
The well
to
third
as
element, on
hand,
to
me
increased. cardinals I
As
used
can wore
it recollect, robes
more
see
scarlet than
know the
vermillion
is,
and
highly luminous.
is
on
I Still,
color
commonly
and
called cardinal
the crimson
side of vermillion
the
of
quite
so
moderate other
luminosity, and
hues with and it,
calls up
many
am
asserts
that feebly,
unable
any
longer to isolate
of time
it.
an
finite interval
generallycontains
when is these
a
become
result
general idea.
spreading
an
just
seen
how
by
continuous
be
generalised.
first character
of
generalidea
so
resultingis that
infinitesi feeling,
livingfeeling. A
in
continuum still
of this
duration, but
embracing
innumerable
parts,
im
a
mediately present.
of boundedness
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
225
vague
of possibility in the
more
than
of
is present
is
directlyfelt. feeling,
doubt
Second,
nominalistic about
one
presence appear
maxims
idea
one
is
can
no
directly
itself into
perceivethe
the other.
one
and
shaping
any
can
Nor
there
any
longer be
we
idea
resemblinganother,when
field of
along
and
the
continuous
quality from
which
we
one
to
the other
back
again
to the
point
had
marked.
Future Past
an
idea.
The
a
insistency
quantity
rises to
with
past idea
with
reference
to
the
present is
which
as infinity
is
brought
make
the present.
must
inductive
of applications
the law
of
which continuity
produced
226
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
such extend
great results
the law
a
in
all the
positive sciences.
the future.
to
We
must
of
insistencyinto
idea with the minus there
Plainly,the
a
of insistency
future
reference
the present is
quantity
affected
by
sign;
be any
for it is the
not effect,
curve
present
future,if
present.
of
the
Accordingly, the
tency is
Such
a
sort
hyperbola. equilateral
is
none now
(See
figure.)
that its
conception
the be
less
mathematical,
cannot quantification
exactlyspecified.
which
we
Now into.
have
here has
been
not
led
feelingwhich
is is
yet
emerged
and which
a
immediate
consciousness In
already
affectible virtue of
already affected.
an
fact,this
up
habit,by
is
brought already
it
was
by
bond
had while
been
established
between
it and
another We other
as a
still in
juturo.
of
one
can
now
see
what
the affection
the
idea by
an
consists
in.
It is that the
affected
idea
as
is attached
logical predicate to
a
idea affecting
subject. So
when
feeling emerges
appears
as a
into immediate
of
a more
consciousness,it
or
always
less
general
well
word The
suggestion is
future is
to
expressingthis
is influenced
relation.
suggested
rather
by
the
IDEAS
CANNOT
BE
CONNECTED
EXCEPT
CONTINUITY
That is
ideas
can
nowise
to
be
one
connected who
without
continuity
the
matter.
con
evident sufficiently
still the
reflects upon
that
But
opinion
once
may the
be
entertained
of
after
tinuity has
made
connection
ideas
possible,
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
227
then
they
may
get
to
be
connected
in
cannot
other
see
modes how
than anyone
deny
call
that
the may
infinite
diversityof
into
the
universe,which
are
chance,
bring ideas
general
proximity which
It may do
not
associated But
a
in then
one
idea.
times. duce
the law
of continuous
spreading
is
an
mental
and association;
abridged
But ideas
statement
the universe
a
been
cannot not
evolved.
if I
am
blind
that
avayKrj it would
bring
remain
together,first I point
There
out
blind.
being
continuous
connection associated
between
in
a
the
ideas,
they would
and
become infallibly
living, feeling,
see
Next,
I cannot would
what
mustness
necessity of
this
avayKfj the
consist says
In
the
absolute
uniformity of
phenomenon,
for if it
nominalist.
Absolute three
times
is well put in
in;
merely hap
pened
in
so
succession,or
of any
to
three
million times
in succession,
the coincidence
could
only
be
chance.
absolute
uni it
we
formity must
is idle to talk
can
the whole
as an
future; and
I think
except
idea.
come
No;
only hold
into
wherever
ideas
together they
tend
to weld
wherever the
they are
generally
and these
connection;
out.
general ideas
MENTAL
are
spread livingfeelings
LAW FOLLOWS
THE
FORMS
OF
LOGIC
The
classes of
are
Deduction,
to
Induction,
chief modes
Hypothesis.
correspond
soul.
three the
of action
of the human
In deduction
228
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
mind virtue
is under of which
the
a
dominion
of
habit
or
association
case a corre
by
in each
sponding
volve that
reaction. idea.
certain
sensation
is
seen
to
in
Consequently,that
That the
rest
sensation hind
is followed
a
by
that
reaction. from
the
legs of
when
frog,
you
separated pinch
tation. them.
body,
of
reason,
It is the
lowest
form
psychical manifes
a By induction,
habit
becomes
established.
Certain followed
sen
reaction; and
that
association
to
becomes
be followed
that
is that
whereby
But
excitingreactions.
attain
in order
general
should
it tionality,
is necessary,
also, that
That of
as
it should
become
a
sug
gestible by
process thetic
is
accomplished by
psychical By hypo
having
hypothetic inference.
I have
I inference, induction of
man
explained in
other I
writ know
"
ings, an
qualities.For
and He classed has
a
example,
"
known
as
mugwump
places great
social distinction.
and
rowdyism
unrefined
good-fellowship
their
con
play in
the
dealingsof
He thinks
American
with politicians
stituency.
from the
that the
of the
to
reform
which
would
abandonment
system
by which
strengthenparty organizations
essential
return
to
the
and original
conception of
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
229
would office-filling
that monetary
ones
be
found
an
unmixed
good.
He
holds
considerations
should
usuallybe
He
the decisive
in
questionsof publicpolicy.
individualism of civilization. and
of
cipleof
agency
to
as laissez-faire
These of
in he
"
views, among
others,I Now,
be
obtrusive
marks
a man
a a
mugwump."
suppose
casually meet
and railway-train,
into falling
am
conversation
find that
to
holds
that That
opinionsof
"
this sort; I
naturally led
is
suppose
he is
mugwump."
a
That
inference. hypothetic
of
a
is to say,
number
of readily
find this
verifiable marks
man
mugwump
has go that
these,and
to
characters
us
which pose
a
make
thinker
man
of that
a
stripe. Or let
sup and
I meet
of
semi-clerical appearance
to
appears wooden
look
at
things from
He cites
the
point
of
view of
of
rather
dualism.
with he
several tion
to
texts
scriptureand
always
atten particular
their
and logicalimplications;
exhibits
stern
ness, almost in
amounting
I
to
evil-doers,
of
a
general.
readily conclude
Now
minister
a
certain
to
denomination.
time
we
acts
in
way
similar
this, every
in
a
acquire a
as
of
co-ordinatingre
any
act
actions
peculiarway, Thus,
most
in
performing
have and
a
requir
ing
the
skill.
two
persons
in moving difficulty
hands
two
simultaneously
in
opposite
medial
directions
through
the
parallelcircles nearly
To learn
to
in the
plane
to
of
body.
do
it this,
is necessary
when up
suddenly
and
general conception
perfectly easy.
it becomes
think
230
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
we
are
trying to
the
do
and this,
this.
Then,
and the
generalidea
which
to
unites the
actions,
calls up times
perform
mental
generalidea.
whenever
The
we
same are
process
employed
or are
learning to speak
language
acquiring any
sort
Thus, by induction,a
one
followed
by
reaction the
same
become
united
by
reaction; while
by
the
one
number in
a
of reactions
called for by
is called
out
get united
occasion.
generalidea
which habit
by
the
same
By deduction,
certain
the
on
of
callingout
reactions
certain
occasions.
UNCERTAINTY
OF
MENTAL
ACTION
The
inductive
and
hypothetic
forms
of
inference while
are
necessary;
deduc
be
either
necessary
seems
or
probable.
be necessary the mind it is the
an or
mental
action
to
invariable
has
more
In whatever
manner manner
reacted
in given sensation,
that
likely
react
again;
were
this,however,
wooden and of close. defect truth
absolute
necessity,
no
habits
would
become
and ineradicable,
new
room
being
would the
habits,intellectual Thus,
of the
life
to
speedy
no mere
uncertainty of
is
on
mental
law
is
it,but
mind
matter
the
con
trary of its
to
"
essence.
same
The
is,the
that
is not is. it
more
subject
It
law,"
in the
rigid sense
which
only
experiencesgentle forces
to act
merely
render
likely
There
in
given
way
than
it otherwise
would
be.
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
231
always
in its Some reactions of the is
a
remains
certain which
amount
of
arbitrary spontaneity
be
dead. the
action, without
it would
to
psychologists think
with of the
reconcile
necessary for
a
uncertainty by
of
means
of
principle of
causation this
case
law
fatigue. Truly
I think idea into my
"
law,
a
law
fatigue
general
it is
merely
of the its
not
"
principle
Put for it to
me
in
spreading salad,
What when
nectar
loses I have
insistency.
tasted But
a
tarragon
and dish has
it
years, every
I exclaim
is this!
add
of into upon it
one
I taste been
for week
week,
thus
and
habit
created;
in
spreading impression
sensation
makes
hardly
it is The of
on
more
if it be
as
noticed,
a
side that I
am
from
which
appears of
to
as
rather
bore.
doctrine
mind little
fatigue is
much
to
the
primordial phenomena
It
seems a
disposed
be allowed
doubt.
an
somewhat
thing
exception
For this
to
the
uniformizamanner
tion.
here To
reason,
as a
prefer
case
to
explain
of that
it in the
indicated,
consider it
as
special
great
principle. certainly
but
even
something
the
distinct
in its nature,
somewhat if it be
strengthens
necessitarian that
position;
all the
distinct,the
arbitrariness
away
me
hypothesis
of of mental absolute itself to
variety
to
and
ex
apparent
action
ought
be
plained
seem
in
to
favor
determinism
a
not
to
recommend seeks
sober
and
judg
not
ment,
that of
which
the
guidance
of
observed
prepossessions.
232
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
RESTATEMENT
OF
THE
LAW
Let
me
now
try
and
to
gather
up
all these of
odds
in
a
and
ends
of
commentary
restate
the law
that when
mind,
we
unitaryway.
from
a
First,then, we
find
regard ideas
way, the That
simplest
one
utterlymeaningless.
or
idea
one
should
state
resemble
another
so
influence
as
another, or
that
of mind that
should
much
be
thought
of in another
is,
from
standpoint,sheer
this and other evident into
a
driven
to
per
is
quite
of
that itself, of
feelingsflow together
has has in
a
continuum
modified
gained generality.
continua of
such
general
resem
ideas, or
blance
to have
and any
suggestion and
force.
reference
to
the
external,cease
Third, they
time
these in
general
ideas
are
not
mere
words,
facts
nor
do
consist
this,that
certain
or
certain
concrete
will every
happen
are
under
they
than And does
just as
much,
far
more,
living realities
concreted. law
the
to not
of which
are
they are
that
mental that
phenomena they
a are
governed by by
a
merely
that
describable
general
con
formula;
tinuum
are
but
there
is
livingidea, a
and
conscious
to which
of
which feeling,
pervades them,
they
docile.
Fourth, this
ing harmony,
supreme
not
law, which
so
is the demand
celestial and
that the
liv
does
much
as
special
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
233
their would
peculiararbitrariness
be self-destructive.
and
and
caprice
entirely;for
that
It
only by
re one
be
influenced
this unification
at
acts,
seems
to
be
in
we least,
cannot
present knowledge
said
say
how
far
it goes. the
amount
But
it may of arbi
be
that,judging by
in
appearances, of human
trariness
the
phenomena
very
minds
is neither
prominent.
PERSONALITY
Having
eral, I
nomenon
thus endeavored
to
to
state
the law of
a
of
mind,
in gen
descend
the
consideration
phe particular
in
our own con
which
is
remarkably prominent
personality. A
recent
of
subject by
observations
theory which
in
one
at one
seemed
to
persons
body corresponded
be
the
halves
of the brain
to
universally
which
some
acknowledged
cases
be
insufficient.
is that
these kind
to
make
quite manifest
or
personalityis
Not
of co-ordination
connection when
are we
of ideas. consider
much
say, the
this, perhaps.
which principle ideas is itself
a
Yet
we
that,according to
a
tracing out,
connection
a
between is ap
a
that
general idea
an
have
at least taken
the any
understanding of personality.
general idea, is
It has
to be
not
a
thing
to
be apprehended in
instant.
lived in
time;
234
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
nor
can
any
finite time
embrace
Yet
in each
infinitesimal
interval
living, though
that
a
colored specially
so Personality,
by
far
the immediate
as
moment.
it is
apprehended
moment,
is
immediate But
self-consciousness.
co-ordination
the word
implies somewhat
in
more
ideas,and
than
a a mere
of
personalitythis teleologyis
of
a
more
posive pursuit
mental
predeterminate end;
This is
it is
develop
A
teleology.
personal
now,
character.
general
idea,livingand
of acts in the
conscious
it is
to
already
which
determinative it is not
now
future
to
an
extent
the the
room
is
a
an
essential
element
of
personality.Were
there
person
already explicit,
for
would
be
no
and life;
mere
consequently there
of
an
personality.
The
carrying out
remark
a
predetermined
purposes
is mechanical.
This
has
to application
the
philosophy of religion.
principle of growth
so
primordial
of the of
a
universe, is
far from
to being antagonistic
personal creator,
a
that it is
reallyinseparablefrom
in
an
necessitarian is destined
is religion
to
altogetherfalse
a
become
disintegrated. But
mechanical law above
pseudo-evolutionism which
the
enthrones is at
once
principle of growth,
unsatis scientifically
of how of the universe has
possiblehint
to
about, and
hostile
all
hopes
personal relations
to God.
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
235
COMMUNICATION
in the
an
beginning
can
maintain continuous
idea
only
it.
be
affected
by
but
in
connection
at
with all.
By anything obligesme
we
idea,it cannot
I do say,
on
be affected other
to
say,
grounds, that
is the
call matter
is not
merely
element is
hide-bound
with
habits. in
of life.
is
there
to
idea
is
conveyed
from
mind
another, it
by
say
forms
of combination curious
a
of the diverse
or
of nature, of law
are a
by
some
symmetry,
odor.
no
by
some
tender of
me
color
with
refined has
To
such
forms
chanical
energy
application.If they
and their
eternal,
be
em
origin cannot
are
by
any
so
mechanical
necessity. They
convey and of ideas.
ideas; and
only
can
they
colors
Precisely
are
primary sensations, as
cannot
tones,
excited,
But in
in tell,
psychology.
libertyto
as
ignorance, I they
arise in
at
that
the essentially As
manner as are
called feelings,
are
secondary.
know
far
sight only
and
and
hearing
in
question,we
of
are
that
they
by
vi
brations
senses
inconceivable
not
more
complexity; simple.
chemical
probably
Even
least psy
has in its
chical
of
of pressure,
excitation
seen
to
be
complicated enough
their attractions.
consider
cules
and
with principle
236
set out
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
requires me
to
to
maintain
that
these
are feelings
communicated
must
the
nerves
so by continuity,
that
there
be
something
like them
in the
to
excitants
themselves.
that it is
sen
If this the
seems
extravagant, it is
of
be remembered
sole
possibleway
otherwise
reaching any
be
explanationof
a
which sation,
must
pronounced
Now
general fact,
absolute in-
and absolutelyinexplicable
ultimate.
sound
refuses logic
under
circumstances
be asked
to
to
justify.
my
I may
or
whether
theory would
have
no
be favorable
answer
otherwise
to
telepathy. I
first
decided
to
give
this.
At
it sight,
seems
unfavorable.
connection
Yet
be other modes
than those
between
other
space.
recognitionby place by
means
one
person
extent
own
personality
the
means
to some
by
which
he is conscious
of his
personality. The
as
idea that
which personality,
is
much the is
as
as
to
say
enters personalityitself,
within and
field of
direct
consciousness
of
the
first person,
immediately
At is the
same
perceived as
his ego,
though
less
strongly.
persons is
perceived,
that The
the
of externality
the
recognized.
be So
are
phenomena psychological
two
of intercommunication
tween
minds
have
been
that
it is
impossibleto
say,
they
theory or
persons
not.
are
extraordinary
others from what
gain of
that slight
it is difficult to
more
ascertain
they
view
are, is
rendered certainly
comprehensible by the
here taken.
THE
LAW
OF
MIND
237
A
this.
to
difficultywhich
In
confronts
the
synechistic philosophy
that
is
considering
the doctrine
personality,
of
a
philosophy
but
in
is forced
accept
personal
but
a
God;
that
considering
is
a
communication,
sonal and
it cannot
must
admit
if there of
per
God,
indeed
we
have
direct
perception
with how
that him.
person
be
the
in case, of
personal
the
communication arises
ever
Now,
that
if that the
be
question
being
answer
it is have
possible
existence
this
should that
our
been
at
doubted
by anybody.
is that
us
The
only
stand far That
can
present
eyes and
ones
make
stare most
facts
the face
that
are
before
from has
face
in
and
in
being,
been
all cases,
the from
easily discerned.
memorial.
remarked
time
im
CONCLUSION
thus
developed
as
well
as
as
could
to
in
little space
I think
synechistic
I have
room
philosophy,
in
applied
it clear
succeeded for
making
of
this
doctrine it that
gives
are
explanations
and with the
many
facts
without further
absolutely
along
of
hopelessly inexplicable;
it the
most
following
pronounced
doctrines:
ist,
logi
type;
idealism;
evolutionism.
3rd, tychism,
We
to
with notice
its
consequent
the doctrine
as some
also
that
hindrances
are
philosophies
felt to
do.
IV.
MAN'S
GLASSY
ESSENCE1
IN
The
Monist
for
to
January,
form the among
1891,
brick
tried
to
show of
a
what
and
was
mortar
phi
Chief
I
these in
that
of absolute
which
argued
again
last
April's number.2
idea, that
of
to
con
July,
applied
the law
another of mind. of
fundamental Next in
tinuity, to date,
the from
order,
the
a
I have
eluci
the
point
and
view
chosen,
of I
relation substance.
be
between
psychical
physical aspects
this of
The
ought,
think, to
But
at
the
fram
ing
of
molecular
seems
theory
protoplasm.
to
before
doing
that,
it
indispensable
general.
after
glance
the
constitution
make
a
of matter,
in
We
all, our
papers that of
will
to
not
be
wasted,
problems
for the
of the
follow
in the series
call
consideration
are
the
same
question.
evidence is
enormous
All
physicists
which in
rightly agreed
all sensible and
the
matter
is
over
whelming
molecules
shows
composed
mutual Sir William action
not at
of
swift
motion
exerting
perhaps Kelvin,
repulsions,too.
who the wishes doctrine
to
Even
explode
a
return
to
of
to
plenum,
only
mag-
speaks
1
molecules, but
October,
to
undertakes
assign
definite
The
I
am as
Monist, rejoiced
subtle for M.
1892.
my
as
paper
was
printed,
Montgomery
Other
to
that
phil long
osopher
been
and the
same
Edmund universe.
appear
has
arguing
as
in
world-renowned this
thinkers,
Renouvier
Delboeuf, 238
share
opinion.
MAN'S
GLASSY
ESSENCE
239
nitudes
not
to them.
The
man
who
did
tasks
a
himself,declared
careful which make he
upon
theory
in
book
perusal.
found
the
arguments
in favor he
was were
in Fechner's
monograph, force,though
But These
of replies
to
considerable
they
not
sufficient
against modern
set out
proofs
the
he made
headway
of
a
at
all.
from
mechanical
that it
was
theory
is not
heat.
Rumford's
experiments showed
demonstrated
of gases that
heat
a
substance.
The
Joule heating
form
of energy. and
not
under
constant
volume,
other
facts instanced
energy it
was
by Rankine, proved
This drove
that it could
be
an
of strain.
a
to physicists
mode
Then that
it the
was
John
be
Bernoulli accounted
pressure
by assuming
be
moving uniformly in
was now seen
rectilinear
account
paths.
hypothesis
in
to
for kinds
equal volumes
same
of dif and
ferent
gases
exposed
to
the
pressure of
temperature
contained found
gases,
to
equal
account
numbers
and
for the
between furnished
which
radiometer of evidence
strongest chain
supports any
physicalhypothesis.
of gases,
Such be
being
in
liquidsmust
in
or
clearly
bodies
molecules
move
wander in orbits
curvilinear
in solids
they
quasi-orbits.
definition
solid
II,
i, in the
Century Dictionary.}
240
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
We
see
that
the
resistance sensible
to
compression is,by
one
and
to
inter-
penetrationbetween
of propositions
to
bodies
of the
prime
theory,due
the from
in
largemeasure
must
the
kinetical
to be
which particles,
one
be
aver
supposed
age,
even
quite remote
This and
another,on
no
the
in solids.
resistance is
doubt the
can
by finite attractions
All the
repulsionsbetween
bodies
which
we
of impenetrability limited
is,
and
therefore,a
impenetrability due
This
to
being
the case,
we
have
logical
the
or ex
suppose occupancy It is
we are an
that of
absolute space,
or impenetrability,
belongs
to
molecules
a vera
to
unwarranted
to
hypothesis,not
the
causa*
Unless tional be
an
give up
and
theory
of energy,
finite
posi
must to
attractions
repulsions between
molecules
amount
admitted.
infinite
Absolute
a
impenetrabilitywould
certain
excuse
repulsionat
No
wanton
analogy
of
known
of the
phenomena
exists to
violation In idea
principleof continuityas
are
hypothesis is.
we short,
bound logically is
to
adopt
the Boscovichian
that
an
atom
simply
distribution
of component
potential
energy
throughout
space
being absolutely
be
rigid),combined
with
potential energy
conceived
as
longs to
between cules A
two
molecules,and
A The and B
is to be from
different mole
neces
molecules
and C.
what
it is between is not
distribution of energy
a
sarilyspherical. Nay,
more
3
molecule
even
may have
conceivably
a
have
than
By
to
a
one
center; it may
causa,
some
central
a
curve,
of
vera
in the
cases
logic of science, is
and
meant
state
things
known it would
exist in
account
supposed phenomena.
to
exist in other
cases,
because
for
observed
MAN'S
GLASSY
ESSENCE
241
returning into
observed
On the facts other
itself.
But
do
not
think
there
linear
are
any
pointing to hand,
many
such
multiple or
centers.
facts relatingto
to show
crystals, espe
those cially
observed
by Voigt,4go
but
which
5
tion of energy
not
concentric.
atoms
must
easily calculate
upon
to
one
such that
exert
another
by considering
they
are
equivalent negative
an
another.
About of
such
atom
be
negativepotential,
regions
which
would it is
number the
of
a
such number
determine easy
to see
valency
in many
atom,
be somewhat
this
indeterminate.
I must In
not
further
upon
hypothesis,at present.
will be further
con
another
its consequences
that
are
the
students versed
of
philosophy who
in modern
to
this
magazine
thoroughly
molec
that
is proper
mention
of science
is Clausius's then
law, and
This
explain
is that in sta
peculiarterms
statement
a
of particles
system
tionary motion
is here other.6
meant
a
is
equal
By
upon
system
one an
number
of
particlesacting
a
Stationary motion
Annalen,
on
is
motion quasi-orbital
among
4 5
Wiedemann,
See Maxwell
1887-1889.
in
Spherical Harmonics,
has
his
Ekctritity
and
Magnetism.
6
The
word
an
system
in mathematics.
(4.)
hence
It
means
astronomy,
and
242
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
system
of
so particles
that
none nor
of them
are
removed
to
indefinitely great
velocities.
which of any
a
distances
The be
kinetic
energy
particleis
the
work
would forces of
required to bring
may half
it to
rest,independently
it. the The virial of which inde
which
be acting upon
the work which
pair
is particles
force
between
them
were
would
to
do
if,being
them
distance,it
the virial is
bring
together.
equationof
Here
is the
mass
of
two
v particle,
its
r
R velocity,
is the be
attraction
tween
between
The
and particles,
2
are on
sign
the be
signifies
par the
that
of mv2
on
to
the
right hand
are
to be
summed
pairs of particles.
the
external pressure
and the
(as
of
from
atmosphere)
space within
the
system,
volume is
so
vacant
boundary
as
of that pressure
F, then
that the
the
virial must
be
understood
includingf PF,
equation is
There that
is strong the
(ifnot
demonstrative) body
the
the
sense
reason
for
thinking
zero
temperature
of any
above
the
absolute
kinetic
("273"
a
C.), is proportional to
of the motions This of of the
average
Ptolemaic in which
theory
stars;
like
the
as
system, the
we
nican
system.
is much
the
speak
Calvinistic
system
the
same
theology,
of the mutual
upon
as
Kantian
system
of
as
philosophy,
all moving
any
a
(J?.) It
somewhat of
means
aggregate
way,
the
planets considered
system; (C.)
of and It forces.
in
the
solar
hence
means
aggregate
number of
particles moving
under
forces
acting simultaneously
number
particles.
MAN'S
GLASSY
ESSENCE
243
of its
molecules,or
say
ad, where
a we
is
constant
and
is
temperature.
Hence,
may
write
the equa
a6 where the
J^raT2fPF
=
iSJRr
expressionssignify
are
heavy
the different
singlemolecules
to be
taken. der
1872,
student
in the
Van
special
equation of Namely,
great attention.
The
poses
quantity b
to
is the
volume
of
molecule, which
and all the virtue the
he
sup
be
an
impenetrablebody,
in this term which
account
of the cubic
equation lies
in
makes
equation a shape
an
V, which
is
required to
But of
an
of certain
isothermal
atom
curves.7
if the
impenetrable
is almost
us
is
molecule impenetrable
absurd.
a
the kinetical
a
theory of
or
matter
teaches
that
molecule
we
is like suppose
star-cluster in miniature.
gases and vapors
heating of
the
work
is
performed
are
upon
molecules, implying
distances, the whole
their atoms
at
considerable
falls to
more
kinetical
term
theory
to
of gases
the than
ground.
a
As
for the
added
P, there is no
for approximativejustification
7
it.
Namely,
imagine
show that
o,
But, in fact, an
are
inspectionof
the
an
these
curves
is sufficient to
they
or
of
third.
For
they
while
have for
some
line V of
constant
for
are
asymptote,
of
P, the values
d2p/(dV)2
positive.
244
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
two
spheres described
of the
round
so
particle as
great
center
a as
their
center,
all the
the radius
largerbeing
action upon is
so
to include
particleswhose
the radius cules such
are a
the
is
sensible,while
many mole
large that
The
good
within the
outer at
it.
one some
sphere
implies that
distances than the
of the
inverselyas
higher
more
distance the
cube,
or,
to
speak
cube the
par
that clearly,
attraction
as
multiplied by
the
diminishes
a
increases;for
from that
any
one
at particles
given
the
proportionate to gives a
term
square
distance is the
and
of these
product
unless di in de
a
the
attraction
into
the
Consequently,
of
soon
attraction
so
multiplied by
the
distance
to become
minished
distance
as
no sensible,
sphere
is
supposed
could that
be such
scribed.
sphere is possible ;
at
consequently there
does
two
must
be distances
as
which
the
attraction The
thus
rapidly
diminish
so
the
increases.
spheres,then, being
due particle of the
to the
drawn,
particles
be in
density Then,
substance
creased, say,
virial before
same
times.
for
every
condensation, there
after be the
will be
of the
magnitude
condensation.
of each
will particle
to proportional
equation of
aO
PV
='
MAN'S
GLASSY
ESSENCE
245
This which
omits is
so
of of
taken
not
that
within
distance in
number
to proportional
largesphere.
of his hard But
must
some
der
Waals
this radius
diameter
molecules,which plain
a
it is
to
that
the
extent
molecules
certain
modify
are
their
unless distribution,
The
pe der
a
culiar Waals In
a
conditions
can
fulfilled.
equation
of
Van
be
or
gas. of
a
solid
amount
little effect
virial must with
volume,
greater
For
where
consequently
the had virial must
a
be
the
PV,
we
increase in
a
suppose
an
substance volume
in which
more
increase it would
of the
would If
we
the
virial
than
increase of such
a
| PV.
to forcibly
diminish be
the volume
came
the
temperature
withstand
the equalized,
pressure
it could
would
before,and
go
on an
it would
be still further
a
condensed,
were
condition would In
reached
increase
the
case
\PV
of
more
it would may
decrease be zero;
virial.
P at least, solids,
that
reached
would
or
be
one
in which
the
volume,
so
the attraction
a
between
does particles
as
increase
diminution
were
it would
if the
inverselyas
Almost
another
at
contemporaneously
remarkable thesis
with
der
Waals's
was
paper,
for the
doctorate
to
presented
ex-
Paris
by Amagat.
It related
the
and elasticity
246
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
pansion
menter,
of its
gases,
and
to
this
subject
the
author, has
devoted
his whole
are Especiallyinteresting
ethylene and
1
of carbonic
temperatures
an ounce
00"
and
at pressures
ranging from
As
soon as
to 5000
pounds
these
at
to
the square
inch.
Amagat
"
had
obtained
he results,
constant
remarked
as
that it is
the
coefficient of
expansion
volume,"
that is, the absurdly called, with volume. the temperature, This accords
was
rate
of variation
very the
nearly
constant
with
equation
of the
which virial,
gives
d2Rr
_
dp
_
a,
d6
v~
'
dO
the IsTow,
virial must
be
nearly independent
almost
the last term ture, and, therefore, virial would because of the
not
disappears.
the
be
quite independent of
the (i.e., the square
temperature,
if the
temperature
of the
velocity
pressure the
correspond
same,
to
ingly lowered, so
tractions their of the
to
make
the
volume
more
the
at
molecules
will have
time
produce
the
and effects,
molecules and
a
closest
so
closer;
decrease show
an
that
be generally
increased
by
of
temperature.
Now,
Amagat's experiments
this
do
excessivelyminute
volumes well
are
effect of small.
sort,
at
when least,
the
are ex
not
too
However,
the
the observations
"
enough
at
satisfied
by assuming
"
coefficient
of
pansion
constant
volume
to
consist
wholly
enable
of the
us
first de-
term, a/V.
to
MAN'S
GLASSY
ESSENCE
247
termine and
to
the values
we
of
and
thence
to
this
acid gas
nearlyinversely
to
F"*9.
Van of
There
der
satisfy
ing
Waals's
most
interesting
at
result
Amagat's experiments,
purpose
constant
any
for any
volume,
differs the
considerablywith
volume
mean
the
volume, nearly
This
can
doubling when
only
indicate for
is reduced kinetic
fivefold.
of
a
that the
a
energy
given mass
more
given temperature
But the laws
the
to
compressed.
that the
mean
appear
enjoin
shall escape
mean
kinetic
at
energy
moving particle
The
that the
be
constant
any
given temperature.
is to suppose upon
only
the
con
from
mass
contradiction,then,
of
a
moving particlediminishes
gas. In other
densation
of the
words, many
up into
of the
atoms
or
mole sub-
cules
are
or dissociated,
broken
molecules.
The
idea
that
dissociation will be
to
should
be
favored
by diminishingthe volume
at must
pronounced by physicists,
our
first
blush, as
contrary
all
experience.
we are
But
it
be remembered of
a
speaking
pressure, under
of, that
are
gas
under That
"
atmospheres
also unusual.
the
"
coefficient of the
expansion
volumes
constant
volume
with
a
when
by multiplied
of the volume
should
increase
decrement
is also
quite con
great pressure.
Again,
that
the the
doctrine
of
Arrhenius
generally accepted,
Clausius
as
molecular
Anticipated by
long
ago
as
1857;
and
by Williamson
in
1851.
248
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
conductivity of
sociation fused Here of
an
the
dis
a
ions.
conductivity of
that of
a
solution. is
ac
case,
then, in
increased
which
diminution
of volume
companied by
The have
to
dissociation.
truth be
is that
several
different kinds
the first
to
of
distinguished. In
of the
a
place, there
chemical laws. This
chemical
molecule
form
regular action
of chemical when
double
decomposition, as
to
iodhydric acid
is dis
sociated,according
the
formula
II;
or, it may of
be
simple decomposition,as
is dissociated
when
to the
pentachloride
formula
phosphorus
according
All
these
dissociations
require, according
elevated
to
the
laws
of
temperature.
of
a
In the second
physicallypolymerous
molecules
to
chemical
I
am
joined by
is
a
inclined
suppose and
concomitant bodies
heating
no
of solids of
liquids;
is all
increase
compressibility
the increase is the
must
temperature
comparable
third
with
of the
expansibility. But,
with
to
in the
are now
place, there
dissociation be
which be
a
we
concerned, which
supposed
or
throwing
the
sub-mole
may,
as
cules I have
atoms
from
molecule.
to
molecule
be roughly said,
likened
solar system.
As
such,
MAN'S
GLASSY
ESSENCE
249
molecules
internal
are
able
to
produce perturbationsof
in this way thrown
a
one
motions;
and
a planet,i.e.,
cule,will occasionallyget
till it itself, which it
can
off and
wander
by
with
finds unite.
another Such
sub-molecule
by perturbation will
of the
naturally be
one
favored
by
proximity
molecules
to
another. Let
us or now
pass
to
the consideration
of that
specialsub
stance,
rather
class of
substances,whose
and of
propertiesform
those
mean
the chief
subjectof botany
zoology,as truly as
the chief
subject of mineralogy: I
Let
us
or life-slimes, protoplasm.
general characters
states
of
these
slimes.
and
all solid
not
exist in two
state pass
are
of
aggregation,a
nearly they
do
and from
but
the former
by ordinary fusion.
the
They
readily decomposed
nor
liquid
state;
will
they
bear take
considerable
degree
of cold. little
place at temperatures
This
extreme
very
instability
the chemical that
of
numerous
facts
which
complexity of protoplasm.
they
are
Every
than
far
more
complicated
to
Now,
about
that
a
albumen thousand
is estimated
contain
in each
to
atoms;
so
that
it is natural thousands.
the that
car
protoplasms
while
contain
several
know
they are
chieflycomposed
of oxygen, of other
hydrogen,
elements it is of
bon, and
into
most
enter
bodies living
of
in small into
proportions; and
the
likelythat
these
enter
composition
protoplasms.
250
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
Now,
an so
since
the
numbers with
varieties increase
of atoms per
at
enormous
rate
are
molecule,
of sub
or
that
certainlyhundreds
contain that the the
of thousands
stances
we
molecules
suppose into
a a
twenty
number
or
atoms
fewer,
may
of
protoplasmic
Professor
substances
runs
billions
trillions. of
"
Cayley
a
has of
given
mathematical
theory
such
trees,"with
in that
seems
view
throwing
estimate
lightupon
questions; and
lightthe
of trillions It
(in
the
English sense)
that
an
immoderately
been but
moderate. defended
opinion
has
emitted, and
one
there is
of biolo
kind
of
protoplasm;
have
observations
that
gists,themselves,
which The from
a
almost
exploded
hypothesis,
chemical
standpoint appears
the
utterlyincredible. decidedly be
that
anticipationof
different
chemist
would
enough
chemical be formed
substances
to
having protoplasmic
not
might
between
and
account,
and
only
for
the
nerve-slime
muscle-slime,between
minuter per and
variations
characterize
breeds
singleindividuals. Protoplasm,
but
when
even
when
it is disturbed
appropriate way,
external A
moner
or
some
times
spontaneously
without
disturbance, it
in this state within of its
under
a
the
microscope
to
have
streams
matter;
The
slime-mould
slowly flows
from the This the
by
force
gravity.
and is not
at
one
starts liquefaction
point
of disturbance
spreads through
uniform in all
the
mass.
spreading,however,
contrary, it takes
directions; on
MAN'S
GLASSY
ESSENCE
251
time
one
course,
mass,
at
a
another
manner
another, through
that
seems a
the
homo
geneous The
cause
in
little mysterious.
these motions
of
disturbance
being removed,
of
The chanical
of protoplasm liquefaction
accompanied by
kinds exhibit form.
a a
me
phenomenon.
draw themselves
Namely,
up
ten
dency
to
into
globular
This The
the contents
on some
of muscle-cells. of the
most
exquisite
science
can
the
history of
of
show,
is due that
seem nomena
is
to
a
undoubtedly
osmotic factor in
that
the
muscle-cells
allowed it does that
not
pressure;
and the
be
But
even
is
to
producing
me
that it
accounts satisfactorily
of muscular often
to
contraction; and
up in the increase
same
besides,even
In
slimes
seem some
draw
way.
this case,
recognize an
of
the takes
surface-tension.
In
reverse
action
place,extraordinary
surface-tension
were a
if the
a
Indeed, such
to
slime
always
this
has
sort
skin, due
way
at
doubt
and surface-tension,
a
seems
to
give
the
point
or
where
pseudopodium
is put
forth.
Long-continued
the
protoplasm
we
results in call
obstinate
the
retention other
of the solid
state, which
fatigue. On
much
hand,
the
repose
too
lique-
both
of
growing.
Crystals also
growth, however,
con-
252
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
sists
merely
in
attractingmatter
fluid. To
suppose
own
from
the
circumambient of the
same
growth of protoplasm
this substance
to
nature, would
be
to
suppose
be
food
spontaneously generated
is in solution. is but
a
in
Certainly, it
chemical
not
be
granted
that
that is
protoplasm
no reason
substance, and
be formed
there
why
it should
syntheticallylike
Clifford has
any shown
other
chemical
we
substance.
Indeed,
clearly
it is
so
that
have
to
overwhelming
that such
evidence is
as
that
formed.
But
say
formation is
regular and
matter. to
frequent as
It is pose
more
the assimilation
consonant
of food the
quite another
with
sup of
that assimilated
protoplasm
the influence in its
the instant
under assimilation,
protoplasm
preserves
already
present.
For
each with
slime
growth
its distinc
wonderful
truth, nerve-slime
growing
grow in Now
muscle-slime
muscle-slime,lion-slime
of breeds in the and
even
being preserved
there
are
growth.
it is too much of
to suppose
wherever
its
power
food; assimilating
in
so
much
so,
indeed, that it is
it possesses this
questionablewhether
power. The
the
solid form
life-slime wastes
not
as
well
as
grows; its
and
this too
takes
exclusivelyin
with
liquidphases. reproduction;
and is
connected
growth
a
is
though
in
higher
forms
this is
function,it specialized
is
true universally
that wherever
there
protoplasm,there is,
MAN'S
GLASSY
ESSENCE
253
will be, or
of
seems
has
been in
a a
power
of
reproducing
that
same
kind
protoplasm
to
separated organism.
union of two sexes;
Reproduction
it is not
involve
that
the
though
demonstrable
Another habits. taken in the the
same
this is
always requisite.
of the
physical property
The
course
protoplasm spread
of
is that of
taking
which
has liquefaction
to likely
thereby more
is
no
be taken
there
absolute
that certainly
will be followed
again.
all these
of properties But the
one
protoplasm;
which is We has
as
extraordinary as indubitable.
to be
next
more infinitely
wonderful.
protoplasm
of
feels.
have
no
direct evidence
protoplasm
more
certainly some
is
a
feel far
there
fair
analogical inference
feels but
protoplasm feels.
functions Such
to
are a
It not
only
exercises
all the
of mind. the
propertiesof protoplasm.
of the
account
The
problem
of
is
find
hypothesis
which
molecular for
constitution these
this
compound
and all.
will
properties,one
Some
of them
are
obvious of the
are
results of the
com excessively
plicatedconstitution complicated
cule ways forces
as
protoplasm unstable;
may
molecule. and
substances thousand
plainlya
of several into
are
atoms
be
separated
the
in many chemical
two
parts in each
of which
polar
very
nearly saturated.
molecules
at
In the
must
solid
protoplasm,
to
in other
as
be
supposed
as
be
moving
orbits, or,
least,so
not
to
wander
254
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
indefinitely.But
reason
be
same
be melted; because
the
up
amount
of is
to
heat
make them
entire
molecules and
cause
wander
them
one
sufficient to form
new
completely
But
not
and is
simpler molecules.
if it be of
when
of
the
out
molecules
disturbed,even
quite
thrown
sub-molecules first,
are mean
perhaps
it.
as
several will
hun
soon
each
same
thrown
These
acquire
the
kinetic several
the
others,and,
They
will
great.
to
wander,
molecules
one
great many
behave
other
them
to
like the be
deranged. originally
up, that
even
So many
that
broken
those
in
no
longer be freely.
chemists
restrained is the
der
as
This
liquid,
understand
it;
all electrolytic
liquidsthere
But this
on
is considerable process
dissociation. the
necessarily chills
of the the heat of
substance,
not
merely
but
account
more
chemical of
combination, particles
must
still
because
number
mean a
separate
energy
kinetic
be is
less.
not at
The
once
substance
restored. attractions
being
Now
bad the
particlesmoving
them have of in the time
to
more
between the
take
they approach
condition found
equilibrium.
restoration the
dynamic equilibrium is
of the
solid
place, if
disturbance When
a
kept
up.
most condition,
body
is in the solid
of its mole-
MAN'S
GLASSY
ESSENCE at least,
255 at
cules must
be
moving
at the same
rate,or,
certain
not
regularsets
be
must
would
preserved. always
be
neighboring molecules
and
a
kept between
value. be thrown But into
certain maximum
certain
minimum
if, without
a
absorptionof
dis
of
molecules neighboring
an
unequally
The
and distributed,
effect upon
its
also be doubt be
into account.
The
the cohesion
mass
surface-tension,
But in
will tend
to draw
itselfup.
so
special
much
pointswhere
aid in those
temperature
film will
give way
gen
places will
out at
causing the
be
poured
points, forming
then
pseudopodia.
When
a
the
protoplasm
is in
liquidstate, and
mass
only,
solution of food
by
diffusion.
so
is then
and considerablydissociated;
matter.
is
all dissolved
If then food
the
separated
to
sub-molecules
of the
happen
be
of the
speciesas
with
sub-molecules other
unite
new
sub-molecules
such
a
to
in molecules,
fashion
more
is
be
mole
It
cules of
protoplasm
than
at
the
beginning.
is like the
jackknifewhose
and
blade and
been
lost severally
to
replaced,were
knife.
put
to
gether
make
new
256
We and have
seen
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
that
protoplasm
is chilled
by liquefaction,
the heat
that this
bringsit back
This
to the solid
state,when
series of
operationsmust
even or
be very
rapid
and
of
muscle-slime,and
of
account
unsteady
vibratorycharacter
takes
action. of
Of
course,
if assimilation is is
place, the
which combination,
On
the other
hand,
of
if work
done, whether
take
by
In
nerve
or case
by
of
muscle, loss
the the
energy mode
must
place.
the
muscle, the
by
which is
the
instantaneous
out.
part of
If when less
easilytraced
it be under
it otherwise
an
would
do, and
loss of heat.
engine using
which the
should
and
contraction
during
weight, the
But the
salt
being recovered
of A
afterwards
by
dis do
to
tillation. with do in
major part
of forces. hour his
fatiguehas nothing to
man
the correlation
a
must
labor draws
hard
quarter of
heat
to
an
the work
a
which
from
him
enough time,he
cool
body by
singledegree.
Mean
extra
will be of
getting heated,he
will be
pouringout
he
products
will be
minute
driving the
tubes with
at
accelerated
Yet
rate
through
great expense.
littleto do
his
fatigue.
He
may
sit
quietlyat
at
his table
writing,
in
a
no doing practically
physicalwork
This
hours
be
terribly fagged.
seems
be
not
owing
to
deranged sub-molecules
time such time
to
of the nerve-slime
having
settle back
combinations.
as
When be from
sub-molecules
to
thrown much
out,
waste
they
must
time, there is
of material.
MAN'S
GLASSY
ESSENCE
257
In order and
that
sub-molecule into
not
a
of food broken
may
be
thoroughly
of
firmly assimilated
necessary
molecule have
proto
plasm, it is
the
at
only
that it should
precisely
be be
right chemical
composition,but
at
also that
it should should
the
right time
with
are
and
moving
preciselythe
it fulfilled,
right velocity.
will be
more
not
looselyretained
every time it
the round
other
parts of the
molecule; and
in which that it
was
drawn and
to
to in,relatively
parts of
to
molecule
such
others
as
were
enough
again. Thus,
takes
of partialliquefaction
to
protoplasm
place many
times
about
the
same
extent, it will,each
cules that
were
same
mole
out.
as
last drawn
They
will be thrown of
the
to
direction position,
were
motion,
and
they
course
drawn the
ones
in;
and
that
were cause
out.
Not
ex
actly,however;
off
so
being
thrown
con ac
easilyis
having
fulfilled the
preciselythe
of habit
ditions counted
of stable
Thus,
law
is
for,and
peculiar characteristic
of not
to
me
that this
or
from
as an
certain
value
addition to
examples
far
as
of actions
analogous to
either statical
All the
others,so
forces
know,
are
else involve
the
258
sensible It is sand The
a a so
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
motions with
into
of
energy.
the stream
to
its
own
bed. and
Here, the
left there.
is carried law
stable
situation when
of energy stable
so
this; for
anything reaches
will be
at
position of
maximum,
rest
equilibrium,its
it
can
momentum to
that
an
according
situation.
only
be
left at
in
unstable
In
brought
into certain
states
garment
receives
keeps them;
failure to
is,its
back for
limit of is
is elasticity
an
exceeded. violation
spring
again
apparent
will not due
to
even
of the law
of energy; of
the
substance be
only
an
not
spring
back
itself
unstable
so
equilibrium being
an
do
when
impulse James
that way
"
applied
Professor Accordingly,
. . .
says,
the
phenomena
. . .
of habit
are
due
to the
of plasticity
means
the
the
materials."
materials
having
of
low
elasticity.(See
But
the
Century
Dictionary, under
tion of
solid.)
here
protoplasm
and The
proposed
forces law
an a
but of
attractions energy.
out atom
action in
atom
new
molecule,and
not
the
same
entering of
is orbit,
may
nearly,but
the
quite the
actions
somewhat
similar
to take
molecular
a
which
be
supposed elasticity.
out
new
placein
in that
solid strained
case
beyond
its limit of
must
Namely,
of their orbits.
certain
molecules
be
thrown into
to orbits,
settle down
In
short,the plasticsolid
protoplasm
a
in
being partiallyand
temporarily liquefiedby
slight me-
MAN'S
GLASSY
ESSENCE
259
chanical
has
force.
a
But
the
taking
of
to
set
by
solid
a
body habit,
but
moderate
as
resemblance
characteristic
want
the
taking of
of the
inasmuch
inexactitude marked
at
the
and
feature
deter
latter,its
is not
so
of
complete
it
can
minacy,
in the
former,if
though
on
the
molecular
of
habit
be
no
the
mathematical of
atoms
can
that
systems
having polar
and the
forces
would is
even
in substantially
to satisfactory
that manner,
explanation
of
an
advo the
me
cate
of
tychism.
of
For
it may may
that since
a
phenomena
chanical
habit
thus
purely
suppose
arrangement,
a
it is unnecessary
that But
habit-takingis
one
primordial principleof
the universe.
fact remains
concerns
not
habit,but
all
cases
of actions
appar
ently violatingthe
nomena
law
of energy;
it is that
all these
phe
depend
and
means
upon
same
aggregations of
condition how and could
state
in
one no
the
neighborhood;
have all been any
by
and
clear
same
they
brought
place
and
by
conservative
as
forces.
as
mechanical
of
explanation be
it supposes
perfect
presents
For it
are
it may, of
things which
they
Now,
the
doctrine
necessity
is
en
tirelyindividual. ality.
Now
to
element
of
gener gen-
generalityis primordial,but
260
,
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
eralization
but
any
diversification
It
turns
down.
At
principleof habit,
infinitesimal chance that
can
itself due
the
growth by
habit
of
an
tendency
span
toward chasm
is habit-taking,
the
only bridge
of
the
cosmos
between
and
a
the
chance-medley
chaos
and
the
of order
law.
molecular
I shall not
nomena
attempt
explanation of
that would
the
phe
sub main
of
reproduction,because
carry
require a
from my
me
away
appear find
to
specialconditions; and
has the
we
do
that
protoplasm
be said of
reproductive powers.
property
of
But
what
feeling?
mechani The
no
If
belongs to
is this
a
all
to
protoplasm, by
be accounted
what
for? is
slime
nothing but
chemical its
compound.
formed
There
inherent
in impossibility
being
in synthetically and of if it
were
the labora
so
tory,
out
of its chemical
elements;
made,
it would No
natural
to
protoplasm.
admit element this of
doubt, then, it
be
feel.
To
hesitate what
would the
puerile and
molecular
This
arrangement,
that
or we
feeling be
caused?
question cannot
pooh-poohed.
are
to
accept
from
at
weak
dualism,the property
must
be shown
to arise
some
system.
laws of
Yet
the
tempt
deduce
so
it from
the
three
mechanics,
ap
plied to
never
ingenious a
It
can
mechanical
never
would contrivance,
obviouslybe
futile.
be
explained,unless
we
MAN'S
GLASSY
ESSENCE
261
admit forms
nomena
that of
physical events
are
but But
degraded
once
or
undeveloped
the
psychical events.
of matter of
are
grant that
of the it
phe
but upon
the
result and
sensibly com
remains
to
some
habits the
mind,
only
to
in
protoplasm
up,
so
these
habits
are
broken
that
according to
the
law
of
in that
specialclause
of it sometimes
Now
in which
habits
generally get
in the
as are
up
is this.
Reactions
usually terminate
continues habits with
removal
stimulus;
is pres
long as
Accordingly,
are
general
removal
behavior
But occur,
associated
the
stimuli. fails to
the
expected
removal and
of the
stimulus
excitation take
continues
increases,and
tend
never
reactions
place;
and that
these
matter
to
weaken does
If,then, we
laws with
suppose
obey
are
absolute
fortuitous
but precision,
that
there
almost
sensible
departures
from
proto
it is the
plasm
is in
an
excessivelyunstable
condition;and
near
characteristic of unstable
equilibrium,that
may
that
point
excessively minute
effects.
causes
from
regularity
the
will be followed
by
others
that law
very
great; and
large
still of
produced,
that
will tend
break
up
the
laws, supposing
these
are
"
Physiologically,
. . . .
accommodation
it
means
means
the
breaking
up
of
habit.
Psychologically,
Part
reviving consciousness."
Baldwin,
Psychology,
5.
262
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
the
nature
of habits. fortuitous be
Now,
this
breaking up
of habit
to
and
renewed of The
spontaneity will,according
an
the law
mind,
accompanied by
intensification of
feeling.
un
nerve-protoplasm is,without
of any kind
doubt,
in the
most
stable condition
there Thus mechanical the
we
of matter; the
most
and
consequently,
resultingfeelingis
see
manifest.
no
that
the life.
idealist On
has
need
to
a
dread
theory of
theory,
as
bound
to^call in
Wherever
idealism tychistic
chance-spontaneity
In
is found,
proportion,feelingexists.
aspect of that which
showed that real
fact,chance
the outward
within
or existence,
in
no
chaos
there
was
nothing, from
zero;
physical aspect.
an
Yet
not
blank in the
consciousness
ever
there
as
comparison
which
strugglingof
force of law
molecule
an
two
to
throw
little of the
to
endless
and
innumerable
of diversity
chance
utterlyun
limited.
But after
some
atoms
of the from
thus become
next
no
partially emancipated
To understand is
so
law, what
to
to them?
we this,
have
remember the
that action
mental of
tendency
as
easily strengthened by
to take
habit
is the
tendency
habits.
Now,
in
or are
in the
higher kinds
not
of
atoms
question have
molecule
another
of slime
of which
they
parts; but
a
that, they
constituents
of food
of
protoplasmic con-
MAN'S
GLASSY
ESSENCE
263
been
that
stitution.
lose habits the stimulus
During
and is
to
all this
recover
liable to
when tend
atoms
to
again;
the
so
now,
removed,
and do
so
foregone
case
habits of is such
so
reassert
themselves, they
in the
great promptness.
there is
the
Indeed, the
the
return
prompt
nothing
of law
but
to feeling
show
conclusively
bonds
have
ever
been
relaxed.
short, diversification
wherever
is the
vestige of chance-spon
chance
taneity;and
must
be
operative. On
must
hand, wherever
But
uniformity
ac so
is
be
an
operative.
wherever
tions much
place
established
there uniformity,
the mode I
am
as feeling
may
manner
be takes
of
sense
of
reaction.
That
in which
led to define
of conscious
the fundamental
elements
and
their
physical equivalents.
to
It remains
consider
the
to
physical relations
reflect that
of
general
has
no
ideas.
existence whatever
matter.
It may
be well here
as a
if matter
except
of mind, specialization
it follows
that
according
is
acts
or
to
regular laws
is itself
directlyor
in
a more
indirectlyconnected
or
with
so
less of
regularway;
the
nature
that
less be
a
partakes
mistake
of the
matter.
Hence,
the
it would
to
conceive
as
of
and psychical
of matter
two
aspects
distinct. absolutely
thing from
and
the
con outside,
sideringits
it things,
relations
as
action
reaction
it from
with the
other
appears
matter.
Viewing
as are
inside,
as we
looking at
character
two
it feeling, combined
appears when
consciousness.
views
264remember that
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
mechanical
laws
are
nothing
but
acquired
ten
habits,like dency
is
to
all the
take
but
of habit
nothing
the
but
spreading of feelings.
appear
question is,how
do
generalideas
The each their
in the molecular of
a
theory of protoplasm?
a
habit
involves
atoms
general idea.
get thrown
all the
out
In of
habit
certain
and orbit,
replaced by
others. that
are
Upon
different
occasions
are an one
thrown of
analogous
inward
physical point
their
view,
sense
time less
of the associated
sense
feelings recurs,
are
vague
that
there
others, that
this that
it has
general
is. We
and character,
of about
general character
in
ought not,
acts
think, to
than
protoplasm
habit
never
in any the
other
particularway
be
a
suggested above.
of
On
contrary, if habit
be
primary property
as a
mind,
We
it must
can
equally
refuse
so
of
matter,
that is
a
kind
of mind. chance
hardly
to
admit
wherever
motions
have
tendency
perfectitself.
general
accom
certain
modification
of consciousness relation
panies
actions. The
any
regularityor
general
between
chance
consciousness
of
general idea
has
certain it passes
"
unity
from
to
of the
one a
ego,"
to
in
it,which
It
a
is identical when
mind person;
another.
and, indeed,
only
particularkind oj Speculative
of
general idea.
Long
age,
in the
Journal
MAN'S
GLASSY
ESSENCE
265
out
pointed
that
person
nothing
were,
but
but
see
my
views every
then, too
has
enable
me
to
a
that
general idea
of livingfeeling
person.
All that of
a
this
theory, to
which
to
the
existence
person be
out of feelings
should
enough
draw
to
connection
a
other.
Here
consequence
it may
be
possible to
be the case,
submit there
experimental test.
be
men
Namely,
like
if this
con
should of
something
who
are
personal
and when
as a
sciousness
in bodies
in intimate that
so
in the
tenselysympathetic
communion. been
a
It is true carried
generalization of feelinghas
clude
sense, have
cease. no mere a
far
to
in
person,
stopping-place,in
further
we
certain
attained;
and But
will generalization
not
character. lively
must
think
it will
are
sentiment, sympathy,
can
metaphors.
of
None
of any
us more
what
the
corporationsare,
know what
of my
can
the whole
to
brain
the
thinking.
of
mind
clearlypoints
there
are
existence
of such
many
ordinary observations
and
which,
examined critically
as
experiments, might,
dence
evi
greater persons
that
on one
indi
dozen
viduals.
remarked
one
day
people, strangers to
to do
one
will another,
take
and
the
same
physi
the
cal
experiment,a crime,
young
act
of
virtue.
When
thirtythousand
people of
the
society for
Christian
266
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
Endeavor
were
in
New
York,
of
sweetness
there
seemed
to
me
to
be
some
mysterious
is
diffusion
and
light.
it
If
such
fact
capable
of
being
made
out
anywhere,
always
prayers
should
be
in
the
church.
The
Christians
have
been
ready
in common, with
to
risk
their
lives
for
the
sake
of
having
of
getting
energy,
together
and
and
praying
for their
simultaneously
common
great
"
especially
of Christ's
body,
here
in
for
the
whole
state
church
militant
earth,"
have been
as
one
of
the
missals
has
it.
This
practice
for
they
many in
keeping Surely,
in that
a
up
weekly,
have
centuries.
personality
bride
of
developed
call
that
church,
there
is
a
"
as
they
of
it,
and
or
else
strange
break
in
mind,
mistaken.
shall
have
to
acknowledge
societies for
my
views
are
much
Would
not
the
psychical clouds,
than in in
research
be
more
likely
of such
to
break
through personality,
upon the
the
seeking
evidences
corporate
seeking
should
evidences
of
telepathy,
which,
same
theory,
be
far
weaker
phenomenon?
V.
EVOLUTIONARY
LOVE1
AT
FIRST
BLUSH.
COUNTER-GOSPELS
PHILOSOPHY,
when
just escaping
the
from
its
golden pupa-skin,
of the
mythology, proclaimed
universe
is poor love. hate
as
to
be
Love.
Or,
this say
set
pirate-lingo, English,
Eros,
the exuberance-
in such-like
Afterwards,
the two
up of the
passionate-love and
universe.
In any of
some
co-ordinate is the
an
powers word.
to
passages, in
kindness it has
But
certainly, in
senior love whose
can
sense
which
opposite,
be
partner
attain.
that
opposite,is
Never
views
days
those
familiar all
topics,
have
made been
the
One
out
Supreme
of
to
Being,
to
by
be
whom
things
made
can
nothing,
hate?
cherishing-love. What,
mind,
were
then,
the
he of
say the
Never if he
at
scribe
apocalypse,
a
John, stung
rage of may
sane
unable
to
distinguish suggestions
so
evil
of rather
from
visions
to
heaven,
have
and
become The
or
the
Slanderer
is
God
men, the
to
dreamed.
question
to
what in that
John
out
seems
thought,
his idea aimed whether
ought
thought,
statement
order
carry
consistently.
at
God
we
is love
cannot
that
saying
bears
us
Ecclesiastes
or
that
"
tell
God
can
hatred.
We
Nay,"
know
says and
John,
have
"we
1
tell, and
January,
very
1893.
simply!
The
Monist,
267
268
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
trusted There
men.
the is In
no
love
which
God
hath it
in
means
us.
God God
is love." loves
"
all is
preceding paragraph,
is
as no
he
said,
are
God
under
lightand
in him
darkness is
at
all."
to
stand, then,that
so
darkness
are mere
merely
defect of
of
light,
hatred
and
evil and
imperfect stages
This
"
ayawrj
and
ayaOov,
love
loveliness.
concords God
sent
with
not
that the
utterance
reported
in
to
Son
world; but
He
not
that
the world
on
should
not
through him
he And
. . .
be
that
him
is al
judged:
that
hath
judged
the
ready.
come
judgment,
men
light is
rather
into the
the
world,
That
loved
darkness
no
than
on
light."
is to say,
God
visits
punishment affinity
a
them;
their natural
is,is
Satan
not
love be
hatred
contrary;
it is
a
otherwise
would
co-ordinate
an
power;
but of
embraces yea,
even
hatred
needs
no
imperfect stage
and hatefulness
it,an
as
hatred
its
object.
which
can
For he
self-love is
loves
must
love; so
defect
which of
if God's
self is
a
be
that
love; just as
would
"
light up
only
otherwise
be dark.
is
no
Henry James,
very in
the Swedenfinite
or
borgian, says:
creaturelylove
for
more
It
doubt
own
tolerable
to love
to love one's
to
another,
but
another be in
his
conformity
one's with
must
self: the be
nothing Love,
can
flagrant contrast
ex
tenderness
vi termini
only
negative to
an
itself."
on
Substance
Shadow:
Essay
the
EVOLUTIONARY
LOVE
269
not
Physicsof Creation.
with
It is he and
pity he
able
had
was
scolding at physics
of
his
reader
was
at
creation what
well-nigh forgot.
deduct,
however,
make
from
justwrote:
as
obviously no
as one
genius could
discloses
his every
sentence
sublime
which
problem
movement
solution. everlasting
is
at circular,
one
and
the and
same
into This
independency
seems
draw when
harmony.
complicated
in the
up does
simple
formula say,
call the
Golden
Rule.
This
not, of course,
Do
others, but
Sacrifice your
own
perfection to
must
or
the
mo
perfectionment of
ment
your
neighbor.
the
Nor
it for
be confounded
with
Benthamite,
Helvetian, or
Beccarian
number. sons;
not
motto, Act
Love
to
is not
abstractions
nor
but
to
per of
persons
own
do
not
know,
our
to
numbers
people,but
"
to our
dear
ones,
Our
neighbor," we
remember,
but
is
one
live near,
not
locallyperhaps, Everybody
can see
feeling.
of St.
that
statement
John
formula
of
comes
an
teaches say
growth
love, from
ardent for
"
I will not
to
but sacrifice,
impulse
example,
fulfil another's
an
highestimpulse. Suppose,
that for interests
as me.
that I have It is my
a
idea
It is my
creation. it is
creature;
I
shown
in last
I will sink
perfecting it.
2yo
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
by dealing out
I
as can
cold
justiceto
the
circle of my
ideas
that
make
them
grow,
but by cherishingand
in my
tending them
I would from
the flowers
garden.
The
philosophy we
way mind
draw
John's gospel
as
is that
this isthe
as
de^
mind,
velops; and
only so"far
it yet is
anoTsb
has
is life,
reoognlzSig germs
warms
the
hateful,gradually
That of my is the essay
sort
it into
lovely.
of evolution Law
which
must
careful student
that
The
of Mind,
synechism
now
The
and
we
nineteenth
all
century is
to
fast
begin
review
to
its
doings
as
character centuries
it is destined in
bear future
compared
historians.
the
minds the
of
called, I
economy its
guess, has
more
Economical
Century;
political
of
direct has
any
relations with
other of
activity than
has
science.
Well, political
too.
economy
redemption,
of
It is this: the
Intelligencein prices,the
of all the
service
greed
most
ensures
justest
enlightened conduct
leads
to
dealings between
food in
men, and
and
the
summum
bonum,
whom?
not
mean
plenty
perfect
master
one
comfort.
Food
for do
Why,
to
greedy
this is
of
intelligence.I
say
of the
legitimateconclu
of which
sions of I
political economy,
But
fully acknowledge.
study
of
doctrines,them generalizations
has
temporarily encourage
the
extremely false,as
necessitarianism. tention
study
I say,
of
physics
encouraged
great at
What
then, is
that
the
our
paid
to
economical
questions during
century
EVOLUTIONARY
LOVE
271
has
an
exaggeration
unfortunate
a
of
the
beneficial of
effects of
greed
there
to
the
results which
resulted
philosophy
comes
this,that greed
race a
is the in the of
one
great agent
evolution
in the
and
of the
universe.
"
handbook
political economy,
at
the
most
typicaland
some
middling
I have
hand,
make
to
"
and
a
there find
remarks
of which
brief
analysis.
to
I omit
qualifications, sops
Cerberus,phrases
serve
to
hide the
ugly
nakedness
of
greed-god.
enumerates
surveyed
to
position. The
action:
author
"three of of
motives
human
The The
love love
self;
a
limited class
having
common
interests and
feelingswith
The
one's
self;
at
love of mankind
at
large."
obsequious title is
Love! The class
"
Remark,
on
bestowed
mo
greed,
"
"the In you
of self."
"
second
tive is love.
place of
have
a
limited
put
"
certain
"
persons,"and
fair
a
description. Taking
kind
some
class
"
sense,
seems
weak
to
sequel,there
of author is
be
to
the
at
delimitation
By
mean
the that
mankind subconscious
large, the
deep,
little more
fidgetabout pushing
estimate
ideas. worth
The of
an
proceeds
motives.
comparative
of the
these other
Greed, says
is not
so
course,
word,
"
great
evil
as
is
commonly
sup-
272
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
posed.
Every
man
can
promote
he
can
his
own
interests
any
one
great deal
or else's,
more
than effectively
any
one
promote
his."
than
on
else
can
promote
the
more
Besides, as
a man
he the
remarks
more
another he
to
"
page, The
miserly
motive
"
is,
most
good
one
does. which
second
is the Love
dangerous
very
ness
society is exposed."
purer
source a
is all
pretty:
exists."
no
higher or
But
of human of
happi enduring
(Ahem!)
in
it is be
"source
injury,"and,
wiser. As What for
short, should
overruled We
by something
shall
see.
is this wiser
motive? rendered
it is publicspirit, way of
nugatory
by
the For
"
dif
ex
ficulties in the
its effective
operation."
upon
measure
ample,
it
the of
fecundity repression
The hint
the
vicious;and
the
case
"
no
severe," in
of criminals.
cannot to
is broad.
tures
But
unfortunately,you
measures,
man
induce
legisla
"
to take
such of
owing
the
pestiferous
It thus
ten
der that
sentiments
towards
man." is not
am
appears,
to
Benthamism, or public-spirit,
effective
tutor
strong enough
to
"
be
the
of
love, (I
skipping
over
another the
mo
page), which
tives which alone
we can
2
to
in the which
"
pursuit of wealth," in
"
which
and confide,
are
in the
highest degree
"
beneficent."
Yes,
in the
without
ex
ception are
they
beneficent
to the
whom
all their
"
are blessings
Self, whose
wealth
as
sole inis
object," says
2
writer
have with
to
in
any
accumulating
respect
scientific for
'is his
such, who
How
can
writer
science,
is
"
capable of confounding
omy,
the
say
which
have
nothing
concerning
beneficent," such
brummagem
generalisations as
this?
EVOLUTIONARY
LOVE
273
dividual
holds
"
sustenance
and
some
enjoyment."
other motive man's
to
Plainly,the might
self to be in be
a a
author
that
even sense.
higher
degree
for the He
paradox
his his I
wanting
good
seeks
gloze and
modify
see
what
when, holding
time basis of
as
the
opinions
that
so
repeated, he
not
at
the
same a
acknowledges
cietycould
he
exist upon
of
the
eclectics of flavored
wants
his
mammon
soupgon
god.
accuse
economists
those
to
whom
a
the
enunciation
of their atrocious of
to
be
so:
tincture since
God
be this
thanked!
Ever of
the
brought
not
leaning
thought
must
into
ill-repute,
and
altogether good
as
undeservedly, I
that
great
movement
been
the
tradition of
to
picture thought
dition
sentimentalists and
incapable
in the eyes.
logical
tra
an
unwilling to
be classed
look
This that
may
with
at
an
French
tradition
Englishman English
says
godam
that
every
sentence,
about
a
"
the Brit
tradition the of
American tradition
an
ishers," and
carries short the forms
American
Frenchman
etiquetteto
inconvenient survive
are was
extreme,
in
with
which and
ears
simply
few and for
because far be
men
their
some
eyes
tween.
Doubtless
in
excuse
there
all those it
opinions
days
gone
by;
and
sentimentalism, when
274
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
was
the
a
fashionable of tears
over
amusement
a
to
spend
one's
on a
evenings
candleBut
in
flood
woeful
performance
a
made
itself
little ridiculous.
an
It is
ism,
doctrine,
namely,
the
be
paid
to
natural
judgments
of the
This the
is what
to
sentimentalism consider
most
preciselyis;
to contemn
reader
whether
it is not nineteenth
of all
blasphemiesthe
steadily
of Ter is
degrading.
Yet
the it
century has
the
contemned
ror. one
it,because
it did much.
so
brought
about
Reign
is true.
whole
was
question bad;
The
Reign
very
but
now
Gradgrind
the face
banner of
this
century
to
long
pro
flauntingin
voke the very
heaven,
and
insolence
Soon
out
a
rumble.
flash and
com
will
economists
quite
of in
their
too
late.
The
the
twentieth
century,
delugetempest
a
burst
order,
"
to
clear
upon
world
as
deep
into
greed-philosophy has
long plunged it
guilt.
No
miser
same
is
beneficent
power
in
community,
a
is he? de
a
the
you
reason
precisely, only
the
in
much
higher
to
might
pronounce takes it
Wall
from
Street
heedless
sharp
be
money
persons
not
properly,who
who
wrecks
feeble
enterprises
lessons
to
stopped, and
administers
wholesome worthless
to
scientific men,
"
by passing
other you
checks my
saw
upon
them,
Master
as
you
did, the
when
day,
me,
millionaire your
way
in
glomery,
thought
you
EVOLUTIONARY
LOVE
275
to
using
my
to
process
paying
for
it,and
to
of of
so
be
their
queathing
father
at
your
"
something
a
boast
about,
and of
by
thousand
his
the service
greed, in intelligent
in of his all
person.
Ber
Mandeville, private
proves
Fable
of
the
vices
are descriptions
the economist
even
point concerning
He
argues, would
but the
vice
civilization has
never
it spirit,
been
that
strongly
of
maintained
all acts
charity and
to
benevolence, private
human
race.
public,go seriously
degrade the
The
Origin of Species
of
Darwin
to the
merely
extends of
con cause
views politico-economical
animal and
of progress
vast
entire realm
our
majority of
that the
temporary
of for
opinion
true
those
exquisite and
I
was a
marvellous
adaptations
used
to
of
nature
which, when
boy, men
are so
extol
wisdom
of them
crowded
together that
happen
to
have
those cation
less
or
pushing
even
into
situations
multipli
of
re
kill them
before
they
reach
the age
production.
vidualism is
Among
animals, the
as a
mere
mechanical
indi
vastly reenforced
power Darwin
making
for
on
good
his
by
the
animal's
ruthless greed.
As
puts it
he for
it title-page,
is the
should
have
and
on
added
himself,
sermon
the
Devil
Jesus,
in his
the Mount,
expressed
different
opinion.
276
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
Here, then, is
progress
comes
the
issue. every
The
says
that
from
individual
ality in sympathy
the takes conviction of
with the
his
neighbors.
the
side,
century
is that
progress him
place by
virtue
individual's
for striving
might
gets
the
trampling
to
his
so.
neighbor
This may
under
ac
whenever
chance of
do
curately be
Much I could
a
Gospel
on
Greed.
I have
not
is to be said
not
both
own
sides.
concealed,
conceal,my
will
passionatepredilection. Such
shock my scientific brethren. of
confession the
probably
Yet
some
argument
of
weight
"
in
as
favor it may
of
the
be
agapastic theory
to
evolu
nor were
tion,
mal
so
far
presumed
Heart. without
bespeak
the it
judgment
of the
Sensible
Certainly,if
possibleto believe
that fact
in agapasm
an
would
At
on
be
argument
the
against the
warmth of
doctrine.
it should
any
rate, since
account
a
feelingexists,
every
be
since
it creates
to liability
my
part
againstwhich
on our
it behooves
my
readers
to be
severally
guard.
SECOND THOUGHTS. IRENICA.
Let
us
try
of is
to
define the
affinities of logical
as selection,
the
different
theories
evolution.
a
Natural
conceived
by
Darwin,
mode
of evolution
in which
the
only positive
moner
passage
secure
from advance
to
a
man
To
in
definite
that
direction
chance
be
seconded
by
some
action
EVOLUTIONARY
LOVE
277
or
shall hinder
that of
the
propagation
In
out
of
some
varieties
stimulate
it called, is
others.
natural
so strictly selection,
is the the
crowding
of the weak.
In
sexual
it selection,
attraction
of
The
the
end been
so
of the year
one as
The
preceding years
seasons,
are
1846 had
if extended
most
of
the
productive
we
or
to cover
pro of
ductive science
period
from its
of
equal length
history
beginningsuntil
is
one
now.
of the
corner-stones
Carus
considers
at
it that
the
weakest
system,") was
time
put into
its clearest
opened
the discussion
to
by
his
Letters
and
on
Application of
a
Probabilities which
to which
the
Moral
Political Sciencest
of that
work and
deeply impressed
Sir
day,
John
In
Herschel
general attention
of Buckle's
in Great
Britain.
1857, the
had of
History
of Civilisation
to the use
sensation, owing
the
"
he made
"
Meantime,
name,
had,
that
been Dr.
applied John
the and
success
molecular
physics.
in
Herapath,
kinetical the
English
of gases
chemist, had
1847 outlined
theory
Physics;
refreshed In in
interest
the
theory by
Dar
1856 by notable
summer
memoirs
Kronig.
preceding
before
the
publication, Maxwell
the first and
read
British
Association
on
important
was
this
subject. The
consequence
that
278
fortuitous that
events
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
may
result in in which
further
to
this is the
way
those the
a
appear of
conflict with
are
the
principle of
taken
conservation
energy
to be
explained,had
were was
of all who
abreast inevitable
thought. By
minds, it
Origin of Species,whose
the
same
teaching was
to
simply
the
of application
"
principle
w
the of
explanation of
another
non-conservative be hailed
action,
wel
that comed.
organic development,
The
should
and
sublime
in
discovery of
the conservation
of energy
by Helmholtz
heat had
1847, and
and
theory of
by
Clausius
decidedly
to
sneer
overawed
at
might
have
a
been
inclined
physical science.
"
Thereafter
belated
names now
the
was
things
to
"
"
would
known
be all, or
that
nearly so.
anism,
was
natural
ally of
an
indi
theory. mutiny
and the
ManselFs the
injudiciousadvocacy
of had that Sir William
bondsmen of Mill
Hamilton,
nominalism the
some
profited ac
Darwin
was
although
was sure
real science
day
to
give a
were sure
death-blow
to
of
several
to
elements the in
theory
Another
followers
use
thing: anaesthetics
for thirteen
years.
dropped
much;
our
and times
as
consequence,
so
unlovely hardness
by which
are
contrasted
EVOLUTIONARY
LOVE
279
with
set
those
that
had
already
The
in,and
inclined
relish the
ruthless
theory.
I
am
reader if he any
would
were
quite mistake
to
drift of what
as
saying
understand
me
wishing
Mai
to
suggest that
of
those
Darwin without
himself.
is that his
dispute one
while
of the
most
ingenious and
a
devised, and
argued
charm
with of
wealth
of
knowledge, a
above all with irresisti
a strength of logic, a
certain
magnetic genuineness
not
almost
to
ble, did
and
to
a
at
at first,
case
near
being proved;
now
sober
its ago;
was
looks the
less
hopeful
than
it did
twenty
but
favorable extraordinarily in
receptionit
to
met
plainlyowing,
which of the
large measure,
was
its ideas
being
those
toward
the age
favorably
it gave
because disposed,especially,
to
encouragement
the
greed-philosophy.
to
Diametrically opposed
theories which attribute other that form if
an
evolution
to
by chance,
an
are
those
inward
necessary naturalists
or principle,
necessity. Many
is destined
to
have
thought
go
through
which
certain it is time
one
series of
perfectlycertain
almost
deviate,and
forms
same
if in
geological
exactly
the in
appear
successively,
pre
replacing another
the
sumption
and
certain
take
place
that the
as
the
former. follows
instance,conceives
law of motion of and
it somehow
first
peculiar,but
that
unknown,
must
molecular
constitution
protoplasm,
forms
complicate
28o
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
themselves
more
and after
more. a
Kolliker
one
form
ac a
generate another
certain
maturation he
to
been
himself but
complished. Darwinian,
all forms from
two
are
Weismann,
holds that
too, though
is due
nothing
chance,
of the
that
simple
mechanical
resultants noticeable
heredity
dif
parents.3
seek
It is very
to
that
all these
a
import
the
necessityto
do not of
or
which
facts that
under think
point.
Those due
who geologists
to
species is
cataclysmic
alterations
of the chemical
constitution
water
also
making
mechanical
necessity chief
factor
of
evolution.
Evolution
by sportingand
evolution
by
mechanical another. A
neces
third in
supersedes
Lamarck.
their
strife,lies enwrapped
to
theory
According
his
view,
all that
most
distinguishesthe rudimentary
or
highest organic
been
forms
from
the
has
brought
about
by
little hypertrophies
atrophies which
have been of
have
affected
individuals
to
early in
their
lives,and
a
transmitted
their
offspring. Such
the
transmission of
acquired
is of
general
nature
representativeand
of the of
a
physiologicaldomain
law
of
Its action
dissimilar essentially
to that
physi
of such The the
force; and
of the repugnance
necessitarians Lamarckians
Weismann
to
admitting its
that
existence.
some
further
suppose
although
of
am
happy
of
to
find
that
Dr.
Weismann
among
the
opponents
Darwin,
flag.
EVOLUTIONARY
LOVE
281
modifications mechanical
tion
were
of form
so
transmitted
were
due originally
to
causes, the
of straining
overgrowth
oppositeactions.
an
toward
end,
is
es
though
due
to
a
it be
sometimes I
uncon
growth
a
as exercise,
argued
in my
to
follows
law
of
character
quite contrary
of mechanics. evolution
sentence
is thus
evolution
off my
by
the force
while
one seems
of
of
That
slipped
function
pen social
me a
neighbors whose
an
in the
cosmos
be that of
it is oars,
was Interrupter,
asking
is
mere
question. Of
course, one's
nonsense.
Habit
a inertia, restingon
not
propulsion.
is such
Now
a
it is
energetic proor
word,
this
untried
in
new
been
instances
are
elements them
tures to
of form take
first created.
Habit, however,
with
forces
practicalshapes, compatible
in the form of
the struc
and other
sus
heredity
energy
that
serves
Thus,
new
habit
plays
double also
to
part; it
to
establish
and features,
bring
them
into
harmony
animals will page
now or
the
function But
of the
plants to
they belong.
the
if the reader
a
trouble
of
turningback
of Lamarckian
evolution action
of
with
general description of
he
the
love, to which, I
suppose,
yielded his
assent.
282
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
that
all matter
is
reallymind,
let
us
remember
the
continuity of mind,
evolution Direct takes
on can
ask
what
aspect
of
con
within
the
domain almost
a
endeavor
achieve
to
nothing,
to to
easy
as
add
cubit
one's
stature,
the
come.
it is to
idea
acceptable
any
of
to
Muses We
it is and
ready
throne
of
Mnemosyne;
in their their of
an own
deeper workings
way, and without
we our
spirittake
Let
place
but
connivance. make
our
bugle sound,
oblation
may
then
divinityits
gratifies.Besides
of the
to
process,
to
environment, which
broken knows
us
break the
habits
destined
be
up that
and the
so
render
mind of of
a
lively. Every
routine of habit
body
makes
long
continuance
a
surpriseswonder
is
a
fullybrightensthe
motion,
where
of
mental
activity,
within slum per mind
sciences
reside but
temple
when
Janus, waking
it is closed.
when Few
that
is open,
bering
ceived
psychologists have
A
how
portion of
works
abundantly
other condition
portions
of
a
almost
mechanically.
But
or a
to
railway junction.
portion of
almost
a
cul-de-sac, is like
are
railway
Where
terminus.
Now
mental
commissures
not
habits.
is
not
needed
and
found;
is
set
but
where
they
the
are
in
defect, spontaneity
free.
Thus,
first
EVOLUTIONARY
LOVE
283
is the
evolution
situations
of mind in which
puttingof
are
they
free to
in
already shown,
in last
discussing Man's
Monist, what
at
Glassy Essence,
operandi
must
October's
to
its modus
a
be conceived
be,
least,until
been of
second
shall
have asunder
new
offered.
Namely,
the
sort
the
flying
molecules, and
It
matter.
is,thus, a
reproduction.
the
It takes
activityof proto
which is its
plasm
consists
in
the
molecular
disturbance exercise
necessary
condition.
Growth
that
by
takes
place also
But the
in the mind.
most
Indeed,
is what
it is to learn. of
a
is the
development
The
philosophi
cal idea
into
practice.
conception which
into
appeared,
and
unitary,splitsup
new new
specialcases;
to
into each
of these
thought
must
enter
make
practicable
idea.
This
homogeneous
this and
development
the
course
parallel
is
between
molecular
occurrences
apparent.
elements
Three fore
us;
Patient
in the modes
attention
able
to
trace
all these
transaction of evolution
learning.
thus been
brought
be
evolution
by
fortuitous
evolution
variation,evolution
by
We
mechanical may
term
by
creative love.
or tychasticevolution, tychasm,
anancastic
aga-
evolution,or
pasm.
The
anancasm,
and which
we
agapastic evolution,or
represent these
term
as
doctrines
severallyof
principalimportance,
may
anancastychasticism,
284
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
tkism, and
agapasticism.
absolute
On
the
other
hand
the
mere
propositions that
and
may
chance,
mechanical
necessity,
the cosmos,
of the
love, are
names
severallyoperative in
of
tychism, anancism,
are
and
agapism.
same
All
modes
of evolution
composed
them pass,
of the
general elements.
The
Agapasm
is here
exhibits
to
the most
clearly.
the the be off
good
result
brought by
first, by
upon
stowal
of spontaneous
energy the
the
parent
spring,and, second, by
the the that
row
idea
of
those In
subserve relation
me
express agapasm,
the let
bor
word
geometry.
of cubic
An curve;
ellipsecrossed
for
a
by
a curve
straightline
which is cut
cut
sort
cubic
a
is
thrice
by
straightline; now
and its associated the of
straightline straightline
across
might
a
the
twice ellipse
third
time.
not
straightline
a
it would
the characteristics
cubic.
no no
It would
true true
have,
wants;
has. so,
for
instance, no
it would
cubic cubic
and
nodes,
a
which
The
tychasm
are
reconcile
that
a
the
Darwinian
idea
with the
Christianitywill
remark upon
the reproductivecreation,
use
forms
those wise
that
as
the
spontaneity
into
conferred with
them
in such
to
be drawn
harmony
their
quite original,
This
after
the
Christian
as
scheme.
cannot
Very
have
a
good!
only
shows
that
just
love
EVOLUTIONARY
LOVE
285
embrace
of
what
is most is
a
opposed
kind is of
to
as it,
degenerate
case
it,so
tychasm
agapasm.
to
re
Only, in
the
the
tychasticevolution
of among their
so
progress
owing solely
of
as
distribution
servant
the
napkin-hidden
not
on
talent
the
jected
those
money
rejected,just
the table
to
ruined
gamesters
not
leave
make
those
yet ruined
lambs
other
much
the richer.
of
It makes
the felicity
of the
to
on
the goats,
In
transposed
agapasm, of
a
the
equation.
takes
genuine
virtue
the other
hand,
among
advance
place by
posi
tive of how
sympathy
This manage.
the created
idea which
from springing
continuity
not
mind.
to
is the
tychasticism knows
anancasticist of evolution
at
might here
for which
at
agapasm For
the
point
which go
tychasm departs
certain
it makes
development
ebbs and
through
phases,having
the whole this its
to
a
perfection.
intrinsic
by
destiny
it must accep-
betrays an
be
good.
in
Herein,
a
admitted, anancasm
a
broad
tion be
species of
agapasm.
of it The
might easily
mistaken
for the
an
genuine
agapasm. With
Hegelian phil
re revelatory
osophy
is such its
anancasticism.
its
synechism
(however
whole
the reflection/'
idea of the
theory is superb,
is
almost omitted of
a
sublime.
from
practically
is that
whole
a
movement
a
vast
engine,impelled by
fate of
vis
a
tergo, with
I
blind
mean
and that
mysterious
arriving at
lofty goal.
286
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
such of it
an
engine it would
is
a
be, if
motor.
it
reallyworked;
that
to
but
in
point
as
fact,it
Keely
Grant
is
it
really acts
there
was
nothing
seen
do but
an
accept the
philosophy.
a
never
there
"
such I
a
example
a
of in
long
chain link?
reasoning,
with in
a
shall link
say
with
flaw of
every
no,
every dream. in it
handful
a
sand,
Or
say, it is
not
pasteboard
If
we
of the
a one
philosophythat
realitydoes
exist. idea of
precious thing
which
contains,the
it,in
the arbitrariness
the
of its every
a
make
that
support of
vital free
may
which
to
is the
breath
of the
spiritof love, we
be
produce
that
Hegel
aiming.
A THIRD ASPECT.
DISCRIMINATION
In the very
tween
nature
of
things,the
of evolution its
be
the does
a
three
not
modes
perfectlysharp.
it is
That rather
no
prevent
of its of
mark line
reality.
things
funda
sharp
demarcation and
between violet.
mental
are
they
three
really different.
main
question
have
opera
question is
what
are
striking operative.
whatever
a
have very
to devote
few in
examina slight
to
these
questions
of human
relation
the
development
reader's
thought.
the briefest
I first formulate
convenience
possibledefinitions
EVOLUTIONARY three
LOVE
287
of
conceivable
modes
two
of
development
anancasm
thought^
and three
dis of
tinguishingalso
agapasm. will consist ferent The in
varieties of
of
thought, then,
ideas in dif
habitual
directions
quite
or
unconstrained force of
whether
new
by
un
departures being
tend
to
by
foreseen
more
fix
some
of
habits
than
others. of
new
anancastic
development
of
thought
will consist
adopted
a
without
foreseeingwhither by
causes
they tend,
either of
but
having
to
character
as as
determined
external
the
mind, such
mind
as
changed
circumstances
or life,
internal to the
logical developments of
aga-
ideas
pastic development
mental
nor
thought
adoption
of
certain
in
tychasm,
or
quite blindlyby
in anancasm, whose itself,
the
mere
force
an
of circumstances attraction
of for
as logic,
but
by
immediate
the
idea
nature
is divined
before
that
the
possesses of the
it,by
the
power
of
sympathy,
is,by
continuity of mind;
three
as varieties, or
and
this mental
tendency
may
be
of
follows: in
to
First, it
its collective such
affect
whole and be
people
thence
community
personality,
as are
communicated
in
connection be
collective of
may
intellectually incapable
or even
idea
by
their
private understandings
it.
of
Second,
it may
privateperson
the
that he is
only enabled
apprehend
idea,
to
288
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
by
virtue of
of his
a
sympathy
with
his
neighbors,under
of
the in
strikingexperience or development
of St. Paul may may be taken
an as an
thought.
of
conversion is meant.
example
Third, it
affect
inde individual,
an
pendentlyof
it exercises it. This
by affections,
even
virtue of
attraction
upon
mind,
is the
phenomenon
been
well called
the
continuitybetween
mind
next
and
the
Most
High.
of what
tests
we can
Let
consider
by
means
dis
criminate
No
between
these is
different
categoriesof evolution.
the
no
absolute
in the
criterion
nature
possible in
nature
of
things,
of de
since
of
things there
different be found
is
sharp line
marcation
between
the may of
classes.
Nevertheless,
a
quantitativesymptoms
and
by
sagacious
able
to
sympathetic judge
the
human
nature
be
estimate kinds
approximate proportions in
are
the different
of influence far
as
commingled.
evolution have is the of human
So
been minute
the
historical should
thought
insensible when
has
or so ex
it tychastic,
proceeded by
nature
of chances
multiplied as ample,
of the
assume
show that of
phenomena
the
of
regularity.For
white adult
were
native-born
United
States
in
1880, one-fourth
and
one-
part
5 feet 4 inches
8 inches.
in stature
fourth
part above
Then
by
the
whole
population, we
216
expect
216
under
"
4 4
feet
"
inches,
5
" "
above
"
6 6 6 6
feet 6 inches
"
48
9
48
9
7
8 9
"
"
"
"
"
"
4
" "
4
"
less than
less than
"
"
"
EVOLUTIONARY
LOVE
289
few insignificantly of the
stature
common
I set
are run
down
cases
these
figuresto
show very
how
the
in which
anything
Though
within
of
only
be
every
tween
is included and
four
inches
5 feet 4 inches
inches,yet
above and
if this interval
be
extended all
by
our
thrice
8
four
below, it
adult
will
millions
of native-born
white
9 taller and
not
9 shorter.
of minute
variation, if
If it is but
not
absolutely satisfied,
shall
want
we satisfied,
find
a
that
it
agapasm. Now
We
positive
we
by tychasm, only.
wherever
a
find
con
turn
trary
the purposes
which
animate may
them,
in
spiteof
their has
safelyconclude, there
tychasticaction.
of the
Students
to
history of
scholar
mind like
me
there with
be
of
an
erudition
fill an
imperfect
envy ideas
edulcorated when
maintain
more
that than
just
and
can
be
little
freaks,since they
and been further
so
yet have
and
been
at
critically examined,
progress has
that
everywhere
that any has have
all times
out
gradual
it is difficult to make
originalstep
that
given
been
to
man
has
taken.
tychasm
I
the
sole method
I
cannot
of read
intellectual
development.
I cannot been
same
confess
history so;
sometimes
help
thinkingthat
at
while
tychasm
has
operative, ground
and
others
made
by
a
independently, have
steps, and
further
been that
mistaken students
for
succession
of
small
290
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
"
have
an
been
or
reluctant of
a
to
admit
spirit
"
of
age
people,under
unscrutinized
to wild
be
opening
the
the door
hypotheses.
be with
find, on
contrary, that,
minds, been and
however the of
a
the education of
historical
development
and
thought
tychastic nature,
exclusively in speak
movements. barbarizing
I desire to
a
a
with is
the extreme
modesty
survey
cover so
which very
befits
wide
a
student
of
logicwho
required to
that he
can
field of human
thought
which
it
only by
most
to reconnaissance,
only
any
the greatest
at
skill and
adroit
can
methods
can
impart
my
own
value
all;
not
only
express
opinions and
anybody
of
in my
humble
judgment,
the
the
largestexample
from Christianity,
is afforded
by
history of
by Constantine,
era or eon
an monasteries,
of
years. than
Undoubtedly
all others
at
the
external
circumstance
men
first inclined
to
accept
in Christianity
extent
to which
its loveliness
and
was tenderness,
the fearful
societywas
and
broken
up
by
the
un
mitigated greed
Romans
same
which that
the very
had
seduced than
yet it
was
more fact,
external
circumstance, that
world
a
of which
primitive gospel
I least, do
not
of
Mark
contains
not
single trace.
the blas about of
At
detect
it in the
remark
about
nothing is said
the the
in that
speech
worm
where and
closinglines
fire that
Isaiah
are
quoted, about
the
feed
EVOLUTIONARY
LOVE
291
upon
the
"carcasses But
of
the
men
that
have
transgressed
increases dis talk
against me."
until in the tracted
little by
of the
bitterness
last book
Testament,
its poor
was
author
Christ
ing
was
about
to
having
to
save
the
world, the
the
a
secret
design
a
catch
exception of
paltry
and
as
144,000,
brimstone
forever more." that and
lake,
ever,
of their torment
"
up any
to turn
remark,
insensible such
an
There smirk
is
or
Would should
it be
fiendish I wish
grin
I could
accompany
utterance?
believe St.
tells about is of men's
"
John
the
"
did not
write
condemnation,"
the sake is
a
"
that
being
and,
tion. like of
men
just for
of
torturingthem;
ancient
at
very
composi
were
that
the
early
Christians
a
tryingwith
wet
might
to climb
steep declivity
element of
smooth
clay;
deepest
heart
and
truest
their
animating life,
but
both
and
head,
was
universal their
love;
they
a
were
and continually,
against
a
wills,
into slipping in
a
slipservingas
man.
precedent,
party feel
luster
fashion
but
familiar until
to every
This
330
by
in
about
A.D.
the
of
pristineintegritythat
so
reflects the
wh.te
of lightwas spirit
Sparks of
nounce
that
day),
preface to
his intention
tended
to
the
glory
of
the
suppressing whatever
Lactantius is
contemporary
went
on
darkling
increasinguntil
292
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
before dria
two
was
the end
of the century
the great
4
of library
Alexan
destroyed by Theophilus,
burnt later,
the is
until
centuries that
claiming (which
mother
state
"Ignorance
as
devotion,"
the the
is of
true, just
oppression
a
injusticeis
sober
descriptionof
not too
be
thing our
for
nice
news
papers
movement
as
unfit the
publication."
All
this
is shown
to
by
applicationof the
Another times very
test
given
like the
above it
on a
have
been
tychastic.
a
much
small of which
scale,only
there in the
are
hundred
swifter,for
the
study
documents
by
library-full,
is to be found
Anancastic with
a
historyof
the French
Revolution.
evolution between.
advances The
reason
by
successive
strides
pauses of
is that
in this process is
habit
next
thought having
strongest. Now
the
been
overthrown
supplanted by
sure
the
strongest is
as our
to
be
widely disparatefrom
direct contrary. the second
often old
as
not
is its
It reminds
of
rule of
making
candidate
vice-president.This
from from
there character,
anancasm fore,clearlydistinguishes
tychasm.
The
character
which
agapasm
anancasm
is its pur-
poselessness. But
be of examined
internal
have
the
to
under
pressure
external
most
cataclysmine evolution,
enough.
It has
is in
unmistakable
number
less
the brute
which
than
once
turned fact of
the current
down thought,
*
to the hard
evidence,or
See
EVOLUTIONARY
LOVE
293
for
it,which
has
been
known
can
to
convince
men
by
The
a
only hesitation
a
than
history is
the
a
one. quantitative
external therefore
influences it must be
only
ones
which
affect the
mind,
and
be
matter
to
of
judgment for
to set
which
it would
scarcely
a
worth
while is to
or
attempt
rules,whether
given
from
mean
movement
be
In
without
not.
thought,
scholasticism
and
the
doubtedly
Aristotle
the crusades
and
the
discoveryof
The
the
of writings of
were
powerful
from
influences.
to
development Magnus
Roscellin
Albertus
closely
successive
that
more
that books
story, and
Prantl. He
few has
men
done
good
But of
we
shall
make
so
much
as
good beginning
whole company has been
comprehending
scholasticism
until the
a
digestedby
held
are
of stu
regularlyorganized and
But
as
under
now
for the
period we
the
ing,that
which is
as
synchronised
Romanesque
It does
not
architecture,
easilymastered.
to
quite justify
authors definite all their of
the slavish
dependence
of these
a
authorities.
steadily before
I am,
as
minds, throughout
to
therefore,unable
an
offer
this
period
anancasm,
scholasticism which
seems
example
the fluorine
of
pure
external intellectual
western
to
be
of the
elements. ideas is
Perhaps
the
recent
Japanese reception of
294
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
the with
purest instance
other
of
it in
history.
commoner.
Yet
in
combination
If the devel
elements, nothing is
under
as
opment
facts be
of ideas
of the
study
"
of external
on
anancasm,
it is
the
"
border
external
the
internal
forms,
it But
is,of
course,
principalthing
in modern
learning.
of the
Whewell,
science
whose
masterly comprehension
been
too
history of
ignorantproperly to appreciate,
clearlyshows
it is far from
there.
Internal upon
a
anancasm,
or
predestinedline
nor
without
to steer
it is to be carried
development
understand the
of
philosophy. Hegel
he seeks monitor
to
first made
this; and
make
logic not
merely
was
subjectiveguide and
been
of
thought, which
to
all
it had
be
the
very
main
merely
the
of individual
thinking but
of
a
history of
development
This the involves
thought, positive,
be
or
of all
development.
error. a
clearly demonstrable
of whatever
a
Let
logic in question
inference
kind
it may,
logic of
necessary
inference
be
it supposes what
that
logicis
follows it will
sufficient of
from
not
conclusion
so
given premises;
suffice to take kinds
for unless
an
it will do
much,
of say
individual it does
train
to
reasoning nothing
from
should of other
take,
development.
one
It thus
can
supposes
that
given premises,only
conclusion
be drawn, logically
EVOLUTIONARY
LOVE
295
and
that there
is
no
scope
one
That
from
can
be drawn, logically
come
of the
have
from of
logicians'
confiningtheir
Nantucket the
thought, the
logic of non-relative
does One
not
terms.
it logic of relatives,
hold
good.
occurs
remark
to
me.
of
historyis
it
anancasm, and
development
rough
but age
of individual
just as
natural
at
unit of time
man
individuals,
there
one
being
should
the be
average
an
which
has
issue,so
of which be
out
approximate period
movement
at
the end
be
great historical
ought
us see
to
likelyto
can
sup any of
planted by thing of
Rome dates.
as
another.
Let
Take
if
we
make
the kind.
the
governmental development
and
set
down
the principal
B.C. B.C.
B.C. A.D.
753,
510,
Foundation
of of
Rome. the
Expulsion
of
Tarquins.
title
27, Octavius
assumes
Augustus.
476, End
Western
Empire. Empire.
A.D.
A.D.
962, Holy
1453, Fall
Roman of
Constantinople.
The
last event
was
one
of the
most
in history, significant
are
The
intervals
243,
483,
502,
486,
the
years.
All
are
rather the
curiouslynear
Successive
equal, except
is half
others. be
so near
reigns of kings
Let
us
not
commonly
in the
equal.
set
down
few
dates
historyof thought.
296
B.C.
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
Beginning
of
Greek
phi
losophy.
A.D. A.D.
30,
The
crucifixion.
529,
Closing of Athenian
schools.
End
of
Greek
philosophy.
A.D.
1125,
Rise
of
the
Universities
of
Paris. the
"
A.D.
1543,
De
Revolutionibus of Modern
"
of
Copernicus.
The of intervals
are
Beginning
Science.
In the
history
metaphysics, we
following:
322,
Death Death
of Aristotle. of of
1274,
Aquinas.
Kant.
1804, Death
The
intervals the
are
1595
and
530
years.
The
former
is about
thrice From At
a
latter.
no figures,
these
same
conclusion that
can
fairlybe
there
the
perhaps
rough
natural
of about of
500
years.
Should
any
independent
some
evidence
the this,
intervals
noticed
may
gain
The
be
significance.
of
agapasticdevelopment
its of
thought should, if
this have
it
exists,
distinguishedby
the
purposive character,
an
purpose
a
being
development
idea.
We
should and
direct
recognitionof it,
I here
take
it for
granted
been
on
sufficiently
the
"
proved by
of Mind
ments
are
"
arguments
Monist
Law argu
in The
not
July.
in
if those
quite convincing
themselves, yet
if
they
EVOLUTIONARY
LOVE
297
are
reenforced
two
by
an
apparent
agapasm
in the
one
historyof
mutual in
thought, the
aid. The
propositionswill
I trust,be will,
lend
another
reader
such
too
a
well
grounded
circle in there
logic
to mistake
mutual be
support for
shown
an
vicious
reason an
ing.
If it could the
"
that directly
"
is such
entity as
mere
spiritof
age
or
of
people, and
for
that
individual
will intelligence
not
account at
once
all the
phenomena,
ticism unable
am,
to
this would of
be
proof enough
I must
of agapasthat I
am
and
to
synechism.
a
acknowledge
of
produce
cogent
adduce have
this; but
as
to
arguments
drawn from
will other
serve
confirm
which
facts.
I believe
all the
greatest achievements
of unaided
of mind I
have
been
beyond
the powers
find,
apart from
opinion receives
synechistic
of the many sub
and considerations,
the
reason
purposive character
for
so
great movements,
thinking in
limity of
and
the
ideas
in
their
occurring simultaneously
of
independently to
number
individuals
of
no
ex
traordinarygeneral powers.
ture
The
pointed Gothic
appears imitate
to
me
architec
to
in several
a
of its
developments
attempts
to
be of
such
character. of the
are
All
it
by
modern flat
at the
greatest learningand
felt
genius
to be
so.
appear Yet
tame, and
the
by
their authors
was
stylewas
of
there living,
quite an
of
abundance
of
of
capable
producing
In
works
this kind
one
gigantic
docu of
and sublimity
ments
power. that
more
than
show
the cathedral
chapters,in genius
as a
selection
con
treated architects,
as sideration,
high
were
artistic
no
secondary
able
to
if there
lack of persons
supply
298
LOVE
AND
CHANCE
that; and
viduals
natures
the
results
justifytheir
those
confidence.
Were
indi
in
ages
an
intellect?
Such
opinion
would
break
down How
in middle almost
life
seen
great
discoveries The
independently and
I remember
was
simultaneously!
a
first instance
to
to
the and
predictionof
Adams.
planet hardly
exterior knows
Uranus the
by
Leverrier
One
whom
principleof
of energy
con
ought
sidered The and and
to
to be
as
attributed, although
the
reasonably be
has forth of
ever
made. Rankine
mechanical
theory
of heat the
men same
was
set
by
by Clausius during
there Thomson.
are
5
month
February, 1850;
this great step after
eminent The
who
attribute
kinetical and
theory long
of gases, in
being
started
by John
and
Bernoulli
buried
was oblivion,
appliedto
merely
of the
Avogadro,
modern
but
also of diffusion
viscosity, by
known
at least three
separately. physicists
selection
same
"
It is well
that
the and
doctrine
of natural
at
was
presented by Wallace
of the British
"
by
the
meeting
Historical shows The
as
in his of his
Sketch
that method
as
prefixed to
were
book
both
anticipated by analysiswas
there
were
of spectrum
claimed others
for
Kirchhoff, and
claims.
perhaps
The Elements
authorship
is
of the
Periodical
a
Chemical
disputed
in the
between
Russian,
Thomson,
once
Encyclopedia Britannica,
never
mentions
of
Clausius.
EVOLUTIONARY
LOVE
299
German,
and
an
is
no
room
for doubt
are
nearly
same
greatest discoveries
inventions. have it
out
of
our
times. be
It is
the
with
the
It may
not
surprising by
been
was
made independently
an
easy But
corollary from
it
was
before. inventions.
not
so
telephone
other
Ether,
three
a
the
first
was anaesthetic,
introduced
independently by
Now ether had
one
different
common
New
England physicians.
a
been of
article for
century.
centuries
been
in
the
pharma
that it
ear
copoeiasthree
its anaesthetic
was as a
It is
not
quite incredible
been
property
It had
have
known;
to
known.
secret
probably passed
days
of of Basil the
from
mouth
from
a
the
secret
Valentine; but
kind. it tor use?
so was
for In
long
New
it had
been
Punchinello
had used
England, Why
can
years,
boys
put
amusement.
then be
been
to its serious
No
not
reason
given,except
The
to do
strong
been
enough.
desire the for
motives and
doing
so
could
only
have
gain
philanthropy. About
was
philanthropy introduction,
condition. been
a
undoubtedly
That
or sensibility,
sentimental-
introduced
in the
previous century,
of
undergone
now
ripening process,
than it had
in consequence
which,
though
more
likelyto
unreflecting people
ether-claimants for had
been.
All three
probably
been
were
influenced
by
the desire
certainlynot
insensible to the
LOVE 3oo
AND
CHANCE
doubt
if
any
of
the
great
discoveries
properly,
and
to
be
considered
as
altogether
share this
individual
think
many for
will
doubt.
not,
what
an
argument
is here!
the
continuity
wish
to
of
mind,
very aside
for
agapasticism
If thinkers
do
not
be
strenuous.
will
only
be
persuaded
to
to
lay
the
their
prejudices
of this
and
apply
I
themselves
studying
to
evidences
doctrine,
shall
be
fully
content
await
the
final
decision.
Supplementary
THE PRAGMATISM
BY
Essay
OF
PEIRCE
JOHN
DEWEY
THE
term
pragmatism
of
was
introduced
into California
"
literature Union
in
the
opening
in
sentences
Professor
run
James's
as
address
1898.
The
as
sentences
we
follows: be In
The
principle of
in
a
pragmatism,
of ways, all
may them
call
very
it, may
expressed
the S.
variety
Science it
of
simple.
Charles who
Popular
Monthly
as
for January,
etc.
1878, Mr.
readers
Peirce
to
follows:"
to
sources
The
have the
as
referred other
have
we
not,
know
however,
that the
found
name
furnished
word the
"
by
the
Peirce.
were
The
latter
to
has him
both
of
the
and idea
suggested of Pure
x
by
reading
the
term
Kant,
the
by
of
a
Critique
Reason,
The the
by
Critique
Practical
Reason." of
in the
the
Monist
for
sets
gives such
good
term
statement
both be
reason
selecting the
out
that with
it may
men
quoted
work work
Peirce
by saying that
mind is molded
aware.
who
laboratories, the
much
you
more
habit
of
are
by
experimental
"
than
may
as
they
to
themselves
Whatever
statement
make
him, he
that
ever
[the experimentalist]will
a
either
understand
ever
meaning
be and
if
an
experiment
of
a
can
is carried
in he
act,
will
an see
experience
no sense
given description
what
you
will
result, or
himself of
else
at
all in
say."
in
,
Having
methods that
the
experimental
"
mind the
a
and
being
that
a
interested
thinking,
rational
he
framed of
theory
or
conception
is, the
See and
purport
word
other
expression, lies
Vol.
article the
"
on
Pragmatism,"
Vol.
15, p. 162.
in
Baldwin's
Dictionary,
2.,
p.
322,
Monist,
301
302
THE
PRAGMATISM
OF
PE1RCE
the conduct of life; so exclusively in its bearing upon that, result from since obviously nothing that might not experiment
bearing upon conduct, if one can define ac curatelyall the conceivable experimental phenomena which the
can
have
any
direct
affirmation therein
a
or
denial
of
concept
of the For
could
imply, one
complete
more
definition in it.
concept, and
he doctrine,
there
lutely nothing
name
this
invented
pragmatism."
After doctrine
saying
that
some
of his
friends
him he
to
practicism or
terms
as
he practicalism, that
to
one
says
"
had
philosophy from
Kantian far apart the
no
Kant, and
most two
still
thought in
were as
readily,praktisch and
pragmatisch
to
a
poles,the
mind of the
former
belonging
region of
can ever
thought where
make
sure
experimentalist type
his
of solid
some
ground under
feet,the
Now its
latter
expressing
most
an
relation
to
purpose.
was
quite the
strikingfeature
theory
recognition of
in
separable purpose."2
From
connection
between
rational
cognition and
noted that
human
Peirce of
con
fined
term
to
the
determination
the
meaning
the
not, of
title of his
originalarticle:
the the
term
more
Ideas
as a
Clear.
In
of to
his later
after writing, he
been
theory
"
truth,
"
proposed
of
limited
pragmaticism
even
But is
a
with
respect
the
meaning
his
propositions,there
the
marked
difference
pragmaticism and
pragmatism
latter would
air,if they
own as-
had
2
James's
the do
statements
laws of
instead
of
their
a
Kant
discriminates
to
morality, which
or
are
priori, from
of prudence, the
33
a
with
technique
art, and
counsels
having
laws
3
to
do
with
welfare.
The
latter he
calls pragmatic;
priori
and
34.
one
of Morals, Abbott's
Issues of
trans., pp.
and
the
article in
the
Monist
already mentioned,
another
in the
volume,
p.
481, "The
Pragmaticism."
THE
PRAGMATISM
OF
PEIRCE Thus
303 in his
sociations California
with
the word
"
"
pragmatic."
effective
James
of any
says
address:
The
meaning
to
philosophic
active
can proposition
some
con particular or
sequence,
in
our
practicalexperience, whether
fact that the in the
experience
be
active"
be
particular,than
the curious
that
it must
(Italics mine.)
Now
puts
more
emphasis
upon
practise(or conduct)
transfers worth fies the
the particular; in
fact,he
is it identi
"
emphasis
both
general. The
and with
followingpassage
which the
of the the
definiteness with
meaning with
The
future
general.
future.
The How
rational so?
of every of
a
propositionlies
the
in the
a
proposition is itself
very of it. be But
proposition. In
which it is the
deed, it is
into which which
other
a
than
of proposition of the
meaning: it is
a
translation
myriads of forms
is that
one
propositionmay
called its very in form
which translated, It
is to be
meaning?
the in
not
is,according to the
ap those that
which
proposition becomes
or or
conduct,
one
these this
special cir
under be
entertains
special design,
"
but
every
that
form
is most
to every
applicable to
purpose."
self-control
situation
Hence,
it must
paraphrasing, pragmatism
of
a
habit, or
the
ways
a
way
of
sible,or
habits mitted
not
nomena a or
widest of
range
applicationto particulars.
as
Since
com
acting are
the
it particulars, Hence
is
to
belief in
of
universals." the
it is of
not
doctrine
phenomenalism,
sensuous
for while
richness does
to
phe
in
lies in their
to
quality,pragmatism
as
tend
define
these
(leaving them,
their rational the
it were,
speak for
en
themselves), but
deavors
to
"eliminates the
sential
element, and
this it finds
define
purport, and
or
in the
word
proposition in they
are
question.,''1 physically
only
are
304
THE
PRAGMATISM
OF
PEIRCE
"
The
"
meanings
may
"
the
air is
stuffy
"
and
"
stuffyair
is
determine, for example, the opening of the Accordingly on the ethical side, the pragmaticist does
the
summum
action,but makes it to consist in that process of evolution whereby the existent and more comes to embody those generals more ; in other of rational pur words, becomes, through action an embodiment
to
. . .
make
bonum
consist
in
ports
The
or
as generalized widely
as
4 possible."
quoted
the
should
be
compared
with
what he
Peirce
says
"
has
that
to
Baldwin
seems
"
Dictionary article.
to
a
There the
James's doctrine
of
man
commit
us
to
belief does
not
that
com
is action
stoical maxim
which
at
itself it did
as
at
the age
of sixty
the be
contrary, that
action
wants
end, and
toward
must
something
itself
of
. .
spirit of
The
the
maxim
something
. . .
different from
namely,
the
general ideas.
to
only
maxim
ultimate directs
practical facts
is to further
which
the
subserve
. . .
the
development
now
reasonableness. ultimate
Almost
lies in the in
everybody will
reactions in
agree in
some
good
evolutionary process
their
If so, it is not in
individual
but segregation,
on
something
that
general or continuous.
the the coalescence,
Synechism is founded
the notion
becoming continuous, the becoming gov erned by laws, the becoming instinct with general ideas, are but phases of one and the same process of the growth of reason
ableness.
exactitude This is first shown
to
be
true
with
mathematical
to
in the field of
and logic,
not
a
is thence
to
inferred
hold
. .
good metaphysically. It is
but includes Here
opposed
pragmaticism
as a
that
we
procedure as
have
or
step."
of
again
or
the
doctrine
pragmaticism
doc
trine that
meaning
rational
of habits
*
methods, generalized
fair to
see
doctrine
passing over
connection obvious of
into
It is
probably
moral
here
an
generalityof
tional associations.
action, while
"sensible
the
ra
purport"
and
particular" have
also
Kantian
THE
PRAGMATISM of
OF
PEIRCE be well he
305
now
the
metaphysics
although,
as
synechism.
notes, he
the
It
will
to to
recur
to explicitly
"
Peirce's he
at
"
earlier doctrine
which the
seems
qualify reality
upheld
doctrine
of the
sets
of
generalseven
on
earlier of
period. Peirce
the
in the
out, in his
article
ence
the
Fixation belief
Belief," with
does is
an
empirical differ
belief is calm
of doubt
a
and
expressed
habit
while
doubt
not, and
uneasy
doubt
dissatisfied state
of state to attain,that is, a struggle to emerge; sole object be called inquiry. The a struggle which may belief, of
inquiry is the fixation of belief. The has, however, certain rivals: reiteration, dwelling upon
of The believe. social method
we one
of fixa
"
tion
tenacity"
to
constant
everything conducive
might unsettle
down take
in
the the
everything which
breaks have
to
it
"
practice because
of
nature;
that for and
account to
contrary
beliefs in the
others,so
attack
the real
problem is
own
community;
to
otherwise doubt.
our
belief
resort
precariously
the method the fact
exposed
of that
Hence breaks
the down
method
not
in
time
by
all their
and details,
because There
"
what
is
"
reason
method
potent in formation
in the
to
of taste
"
and
in esthetic
a
produc
which
tions and
history of philosophy,
permanent
the belief at
method
again fails
leaves
recourse
"
secure
agreements
individual
to
are
mercy
of attack.
science, whose
real
fundamental characters
hypothesis
are our
There of
things,whose
and
entirely indepen
senses
dent
our
opinionsabout
can
according to regularlaws,
laws
of
we perception,
ascertain
things
rea
5
reallyare, and
son
any
man
if he have
be led
sufficient
to
one
experienceand
true
enough about
It will
"
it,will
that
conclusion." the
terms
be
noted
"
the
quotation employs
them
a
"
reality and
part of the
state-
P.
26.
306
ment
THE
PRAGMATISM
OF
PEIRCE
of the
a
in scientific
to
procedure. Upon
"
such
"
basis,what
"
the
terms
reality
"
and be
truth
Since
on
must
the basis
our
of the
object of
things have
which the
is to
cause
beliefs beliefs;
a reality
then rational
quences
purport." produce
And
on
/character
of the
be
"
that
it tends
to
singleuniversallyaccepted
are
belief.
All the of
followers
of science
processes
one
if only investigation,
ques
pushed
tion to
certain
"
solution to every
This
be
applied."
where
activityof thought
but
. .
.
by which
dained law
not carried,
we
wish,
to
foreor
This
great
is embodied
the
and
reality. The
to
opinion which
v
is fated
we
be
ultimatelyagreed by
the
mean
truth, and
In
a
the
this
opinion is the
which follows and
real." 6
subsequent
(on
the
Probability of Induction
from
") Peirce
expressly draws
viz.,that this
the conclusion
this statement;
conception of truth
the
'
reality makes
"
character
are
conclusions
we
In
of
synthetic inferences
of
our
know all
proceeding.
must
As
knowledge
from
also
infer that
are
knowing
derived
"
knowledge
led
to true
has
been
must
generally have
more,
conclusions
7
"
true
once conclusions,
being those
that
which
command
the
agreement
of
competent
up,
we
inquiries.
say
Summing
doctrine port of
v
may
Peirce's
pragmaticism
or
"
is pur
concerning the
meaning,
that these
conception,
consist
rational
objects, namely,
have
in the
might conceivably
practical bearings,we
conceive
P.
S6-57-
P.
105-
THE
PRAGMATISM
OF
PEIRCE
307
ject of
effects
-
our
conception
whole is
our
to
our
have.
Then,
our
is the
of
conception of the
of its sensible
Our have
idea
any
of
anything
as we
idea
we
doubt
or
to
whether
really believe
ask ourselves
In
effects to be
or no own we
sensi should
ble
act
v,
no,
have
only
to
whether
any
short,our
responses
our
-to
sensory
the
ultimate, or
testing, ingredients in
sense
conception of
of the word
pragma-
tist,therefore, Peirce
He
l-
of
pragmatist than
That is to say, he
James. emphasizes
much
more
nominalist.
much the of
consequence,
set
and
up
habit, the
of response, In the
in consequence the
experiences with
to
thing.
as
passage
in
Dictionary
less
"
speaks
if in his later
more
life he
attached
action, and
But
to
"
concrete
reasonableness the
a
writing. It may
there
well
be
that but
relative difference
em
phasis had
shifted. For
is at
most
of
a
emphasis.
action consists the
^
in his later
doctrine,concrete
about
rationalitymeans
change in existence
which embodies in habitual upon
brought
attitudes
through
conceptions whose
of response.
as
In
writing,
emphasis
a
habits,
is
"
something
what
a
generic, is explicit.
habits
Now it involves."9 belief of the
"What
More
a
thing
means
simply
infers is
a
elaborately,
a
Induction
a
rule.
rule is
habit. belief
That is of
habit
rule,active
of
a
in us, is evident.
so
^
\
That of
a
every
the
nature
habit, in
in the
far
as
it is of
general character,has
10
been
shown
earlier
papers
difference
between
Peirce
and
James
the former
which
upon
next
strikes
us
is the greater
emphasis placed by
the for
the method
'
of
procedure.
As
show, everything
of the
com
trustworthiness of
high
estimate
logic,as
Hence
at
also
P.
45.
P.
43.
1"
P.
151.
308
his under definite the
THE
PRAGMATISM
OF
PEIRCE
rejection of the
of what he with upon this is the the social
appeal
that
to
the
Will of has
to
Believe
"
form
tenacity. Closely
a more
associated
explicit appeal
have in
dependence
in Peirce is
factor the
than
James.
those
The who
essentiallyto
consensus are
which
capable of employment
and be the fact that
to
"
by
need
absence
the
method
tenacity
of the
will
exposed
upon
tegration from
wider and wider
without, which
utilization Peirce the and
finally forces
mankind
scientific method.
are
Finally, both
both have the
James
Of
at
realists. of real
The
reasonings of really
clearer the
pur
depend
effects fact
or
upon
assumption
things which
makes
consequences. in
the least
a
two, Peirce
we are
that
philosophy
dealing with
is itself to
reality as
term
having rational
" "
port, and
determined
the
hence in
with
terms
something
of beliefs
whose
meaning
That
be
consequences.
reality
"
means
object of
belief
"
those
which
have, after
"
prolonged
the
and
quality of
s, is
may
logical consequence
define the real
as
position. Thus
characters
to
are
we
independent
would the
v. come
of
what
anybody
to
may
be
...
it makes
out-
be idea of
great mistake
suppose
this definition it is
of
only the
us
and persistent in of
conjoint inquiry
the what
way
concrete to
enables
to
"
give
char be."
meaning /intelligible
acters
expression
think
independent
while
anybody
out
may
them
to
of
the
egocentric predicament.)
can
my
purpose
is
wholly expository I
to
not not
inquiring whether
influence
recourse
Peirce
would
most
beneficial
in contemporary
Do
an
large
to
part of
define instead
to
our
difficulties epistemological
"
attempt
the
of
real that
"
as
reflective
to
inquiry
and
as
which
inquiry is forced
can
reach
which
when
it is reached
stably cling?
P.
S3-
BIBLIOGRAPHY
OF
PEIRCE'S
PUBLISHED
^
WRITINGS
6'*'*
I.
Writings
4.
of
General
papers
Three
of
Speculative
Philosophy,
Vol.
(1868).
1.
"Questions Man,"
pp.
Concerning
103-114.
Certain
Faculties
Claimed
for
2.
"Some
"
Consequences
of
of of
Four the
Incapacities,"
Laws of
pp. pp.
140-157.
3.
Ground
Validity
Logic,"
deal
193-208.
with of of of the in the the
These
three of
papers,
somewhat
loosely connected,
The
first is
a
mainly
our
philosophy
tuition, and
most
discursive
that of
"
thought.
every
deals
with The
acute
power
one
holds
thought writings,
sign."
an
second,
remarkable tradition
on
Peirce's and
a
contains argument
The
criticism the
Cartesian
noteworthy
thinking.
of the
against contains,
The
same
traditional
emphasis
refutation Journal
"images"
Mill's
two
in
third
alia,
of
on
of
indictment
syllogism.
on
the the
contains of B.
unsigned
communications
Nominalism
Meaning
Determined. of Fraser's
113
an
"
Review Vol.
Berkeley,"
pp.
in
the
North
American
Review,
(1871),
449-472.
This
paper
contains
important (A
Scotist
analysis
realism
on
medieval to
realism,
and
of
Berkeley's
work after C.
nominalism.
continues
distinguish
Peirce's
this.)
of
the
"Illustrations
Logic
12-13
of
Science,"
in
Popular
in
were
Science Pt. I
Monthly,
of this
(1877-1878).
first and second
Reprinted
papers
The Revue
also
published
D.
Ten
papers
Philosophique,
Vols. five
1-3
are
Vols.
6-7
(1879).
and II
in
Monist,
The first
(1891-1893), reprinted
in Pt.
15-16
of this
(1905-1906).
volume.
The
an
answer
sixth
to
"
paper,
Reply
to of 3,
the the
Necessitarians," foregoing by
the
Vol.
3,
pp.
526-570,
the "The
is
the
criticism
editor
of
Monist,
Issues
Vol. of
1
2,
pp.
pp.
68ff.
and
57iff., and
McCrie,
Synechism,"
The
38off.
is
following
reflections be useful.
classification
occur
arbitrary,
under
as
some
of II.
most
sig
may,
nificant
in
papers
headings
It
however,
309
310
7. "What 8. 9.
" "
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Pragmatism
Issues of Peterson's
to
Is?"
Vol.
15,
pp.
161-181.
The Mr.
Pragmaticism," Proposed
an
Vol.
15, pp.
481-499.
16, pp.
"
Discussion," Vol.
for
1478.
16,
10.
Prolegomena
PP-
Apology
Pragmaticism,"
Vol.
492-S40.
The and
paper
last four
papers
disagreement
contains E. "The
with
pragmatism
of Existential
in
of
James
and
Schiller.
his Method
Graphs.
Hibbert
Reality
pp.
of
God,"
the
Journal, Vol.
brief indications
(1908),
of many
96-112.
Peirce's
of F. Six
Papers in the
"
(1893). brotherhood),
pp.
1.
Pythagorics
3375-3377-
Pythagorean
2.
"Dmesis"
(on
charity towards
criminals),
pp.
3. "The
Critic of Arguments
Thinking,"
Reader
3394. 4. "The to
Critic of Arguments
is Introduced contain
a
Relatives,"
clear
pp.
3415-3419.
account
(The
last two
very
succinct
general character
of
Peirce's 5. "What
6.
"
logic.)
Faith?"
pp.
is Christian
3743-3745.
The in
Marriage
Baldwin's
matter
of
"
3559-3560.
G.
Articles
Individual, priority,
syne-
kind,
and
pragmatism, possibility,
reason,
uniformity.
of
Pearson's Vol.
Grammar
Science," in Popular
296-306.
Science
of
Monthly,
Pearson's the aim of
58
(1901),
pp.
(A
critique
as
to
Predominantly Logical
Papers
Arts
on
Logic, read
Sciences. Vol. 7
Academy
of
of
and
Published
Proceedings
of
the
Academy,
1.
(1867).
in
"On
an
Improvement
Boole's
Calculus in
250-261.
Boole's
pecially in the
The tive association
the
notion of
frequency
Natural
became
leading
of
idea
Peirce's
thought.)
2.
"On
the
Classification
Arguments,"
between the
pp.
261-
287.
(A
suggestive
the
distinction of
an
leading
Contains
principle and
also
an
premise
argument.
interestingnote
BIBLIOGRAPHY
tivistic maxim is not 3. "On
a
311
that, "no
of
hypothesis is
pp.
admissible
which
capable of verification
New
are:
List
Categories,"
The
cate
gories
Relation
Ground),
to
Correlate), Representation
Substance.
,
(Reference
has
for
Interpretant)
all include
"Logic
not
its subject-genus
symbols
terms,
and
merely
concepts."
arguments.
4. "Upon
are
Symbols
propositions, and
"There the truths
the
Logic of Mathematics,"
follow
pp.
402-412.
certain
which
of 5. "Upon
432.
mathematics
syllogistically." Extension,"
to pp.
use as
416of
to
references
on
the
these their
and
an
attack
the
supposed
rule
inverse of
a
proportionality.)
Notation for the
B.
"
Description
Memoires
Logic
of Vol.
Relations," in
9
of
the
American the
Academy,
of
(1870),
pp.
317-378.
to
(Shows
relation than
to
inclusion
use
between
classes
Ex
be
more
fundamental Booleian
Boole's
of equality.
tends
the
calculus
DeMorgan's
Journal
to
logic of relative
terms.) C.
"
On
the Vol.
Algebra
3
of
Logic,"
pp.
American
of Mathematics, by
Schroeder
as
(1880),
15-57. in
(Referred
Peirce's
Hauptwerk
i., p.
"Vorlesungen
iiber die
Algebra
der
Logik," Vol.
"".
"
107.)
American Journal
On
the Vol.
Logic of Number,"
4
of Mathematics,
from
(1881),
pp.
E.
"Brief
Description ??,
pp. 1-6.
of
the
F.
"
On
the
Algebra of Logic: A
to
Philosophy
Vol
of
Notation," American
pp. 180-202.
Journal
of Mathematics,
7 (1884),
G. "A
Theory
Universe
"
of
Probable
of in Marks
"
Inference" and
on
and the
"
notes
"On
Limited
"
Logic of Relatives
of the
in
Studies
Logic
by
members
pp.
Johns
Hopkins
126-203.
7, pp.
19-40.
The "The
Regenerated Logic
elaborate of review of
Relatives," Monist,
own
7, pp.
161-217.
(An
way
development
of
logic of relatives, by
Schroeder's
etc.
book.) Chance,"
North American
/. Miscellaneous
i.
Notes,
of
Review
Venn's
"Logic
of
Review,
a.
July, 1867.
"On
the
to
Multiple
AI-
312
BIBLIOGRAPHY
of the American
'
Academy,
"
Vol.
10
PP-
392-394-
3.
Note
on
Grassman's
Calculus
of
Extension,'
13
Proceed
pp.
Academy,
Vol.
Vol.
(1878),
115-
4. "Note 5. Notes
on
Conversion," Mind,
Additions
to
i, p.
424.
"
and
Benjamin
Peirce's
Linear
Asso
ciative Vol.
6.
"
Algebra," (1881),
pp.
American
Journal
of
Mathematics,
Q2ff.,especially pp.
American Journal
221-229.
Logical
Vol.
i
Machines," (1888).
of
Psychology,
7. "Infinitesimals,"Science, Vol.
8. "Some
(1900), p.
Vol.
18
430.
Amazing
Mazes,"
Vol.
19
Monist,
(April and
July,
1908), and
9. "On
20.
J. A
Syllabus
Mudge
in
Topics
Alfred
(a four
page
brochure).
of
K.
Articles
Baldwin's
"Dictionary
Philosophy"
and
on:
laws
of
thought,
leading
symbolic),
in
predication,probable
ject,syllogism, theory,
truth
and and
III. Researches
A. General
1.
in the and
Theory
and
Methods
of
Astronomic. the
"On
Theory
of
Errors U.
of
of the
pp.
Superintendent
220-224.
2.
of the
S. Coast
1870,
"Note
on
the U.
Theory
with
of
Economy
for relation
Research," Report
197-201. the
of the
paper
S. Coast
Survey
the
1876, pp.
between
(This
deals
cost
utilityand
Times,"
to
the 3.
of
probable
Mean of
error.) Observed
No.
15
"Apparatus
U. of
for
S. Coast
Survey, 1877.
dei Minimi Vol.
i
Appendix
Report
1875.
Metodo
4. "Ferrero's nal
Quadrati,"
(1878),
Annals
pp.
American
Jour
of Mathematics,
55-63.
the
9
5. "Photometric
Researches," of Harvard
Results.
of
Astronomical
Observatory
181.
College, Vol.
Measurement of
(1878),
pp.
i-
6. "Methods
and
Gravity.
Wash
ington.
7.
"
1879.
and Results. A
Methods tions of
Catalogue
of Stars
for Observa
Latitude.
Washington.
1879.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
8.
313
'Diffraction Vol.
2
"On
Ghosts
in
Rutherford's
Journal
of Mathematics,
of
"
9.
Note
on
Comparison
Journal
Wave-Length
18
with
American
10.
of Science, Vol.
Vol. of 453.
(1879),
P-
"A
of Mathematics,
Measure
(1879),
of
PP-
394"
396.
11.
"Numerical Vol.
4
Success
Predictions," Science,
(1884),
p.
12.
"
Proceedings
Assay
on
Commission
"
Washington,
1888.
(Joint Reports
B.
Weighing.)
Pendulum.
at
Geodetic
1.
Researches.
The of
"Measurement and
pp.
Gravity
410-416.
Initial Stations
U. S. Coast
in
America
Europe,"
202-237 1'influence
Report of
and de
the
Survey, 1876,
1'oscillation
Inter 171and
2.
"
De du
la flexibilite du
trepied sur
pendule
reversion," Conference
Geodesique
pp.
nationale
(1877) Comptes
paper
was
187.
was
"
(This
followed
introduced
notes
Plantamour
by
of
the
Appolzer.)
upon
3.
On
of
of Internal the
Friction
the
Correction
Length
Second's Vol.
Pendulum,"
13
Proceedings
pp.
of the American
"
Academy, Swinging
18
(1878),
for the
396-401.
4.
On
Method of
of
Pendulums M.
Determina Jour
Gravity proposed by
of Pendulum
20
Faye,"
American
of Science, Vol.
of
Science, Vol.
6. "Flexure Coast 7. "On the the
of
(1880). Supports,"
pp.
Pendulum
U.
5.
Survey, 1881,
Deduction of Pendulum
the
Experiment," Report
pp.
of the U.
in
Survey, 1881,
8. "Determinations
442-456.
of
Gravity
at
Stations
Pennsylvania,"
19
Report
pp. 9.
"
of U. S. Coast
of the
pp.
Survey,
1883, Appendix
the U.
and
473-486.
the Use
On
Noddy,"
475-482.
of
a
Report of
S.
Coast
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10.
"
1884,
Effect
of the
Flexure
Pendulum U. S.
upon
the
Period
of
Oscillation,"Report
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11.
of
the
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1884,
"On
Noddy,
of
a
and
of
Unequal
Tempera of the
509-512.
ture
upon
Periods
Pendulum,"
for in
Report
"
U. C.
S. Coast
"
Geodetic
Survey
1885, pp.
Psychologic.
On
Differences
Sensation
(in
co-
3H
BIBLIOGRAPHY
operation
Vol. 3
with
J. Jastrow), National
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i-u.
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IV. Philologic.
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North
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98
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V.
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27, No.
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The
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1357
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