Diplomacy and Democracy: The Art of the Possible in the Time of Transformations

Dr. Ceslav Ciobanu, VSU minent Scholar, Associate Professor of conomics Ambassador !ret."

Diplomacy and Democracy

VSSA #$ Annual %eetin& April 'th, ())# An old %oldovan proverb says: *Protect me +ord from my friends, and ,-ll protect myself from my enemies. The latest events at the /AT0 summit in 1ucharest !2omania, April 3, ())#" confirmed once a&ain this 4isdom. The t4o 5ey U.S. allies, 6ermany and 7rance, opposed the inclusion of the t4o former Soviet republics in the %embership Action Plan !%AP" in spite of stron& U.S. support. The main reason behind this position 4as to avoid destabili8in& the fra&ile political situation in these youn& democracies and do not anta&oni8e unnecessarily 2ussia 4hich is harshly re9ectin& any possibilities of /AT0 e:pansion to the east. This particular case is reflectin& controversial stance of American forei&n policy and its po4erful en&ine ; diplomacy, confrontin& serious challen&es in the a&e of transformation, <o4 to reconcile national interest 4ith the democracy promotion a&enda= <o4 *to 4or5 in ne4 4ays, in ne4 places, 4ith ne4 partners, and for ne4 purposes. in the 4ords of Secretary C. 2ice $, 4ithout pre9udicin& *old- !classical" mechanisms, alienatin& *old. !traditional" allies and sacrificin& *old. and most important tas5s: missile defense, non>proliferation and a nuclear>free 4orld= As %i5hail 6orbachev, the last President of the Soviet Union for 4hom , had the privile&e to 4or5 in the end of #)s> be&innin& of ?)s, remar5ed: ho4 to brid&e *the &ap bet4een the rhetoric of peace and security and the real threat loomin& over the 4orld.(. ,n my presentation , 4ill focus on t4o, most important in my opinion, problems related to US@/AT0 ; 2ussia@/e4 post>Soviet states relations: Security and Democracy challen&es, and possibilities of diplomacy in addressin& these hi&hly important sub9ects. ,t is a 4ell 5no4n fact that the 4orld is e:periencin& a ma9or democratic and freedom rollbac5. Accordin& to Aanuary ())# 7reedom <ouse survey, freedom around the 4orld had suffered a net decline in t4o successive years, and the number of countries 4hose score had improved to the number 4hose scores had declined ; a 5ey indicator > is the 4orst since the collapse of the 1erlin Ball. 3 ,t is also a fact that Americans are far
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2emar5s on Transformational Diplomacy by Secretary Condolee88a 2ice. 6aston <all, 6eor&eto4n University, Bashin&ton, DC, 7ebruary $(, ())#. ( The /uclear Threat by %i5hail 6orbachev, The Wall Street Journal, Aanuary 3$, ())C. 3 The Democratic 2ollbac5 by +arry Diamond, Foreign Affairs, %arch@April ())#.

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more polari8ed over the forei&n policy than they 4ere durin& the cold 4ar, that America has seen an unprecedented deterioration of its &lobal ima&e. 0ut of 33 countries polled by the Pe4 2esearch Center-s annual survey (D have less favorable vie4 of the United States than they did in ())(.E , thin5 the veteran of American diplomacy, Chester A. Croc5er, Professor of Strate&ic Studies at the dmund A. Balsh School of 7orei&n Service at 6eor&eto4n University is ri&ht 4hen he is stressin& that *a profound misunderstandin& of the relationship bet4een strate&y, po4er, and diplomacy lies at the heart of the current crisis in U.S. forei&n policy.. ' 0ne of the hottest and most disputed issues of the forei&n policy a&enda is the prospects of further e:pansion of /AT0 to the east by offerin& U5raine and 6eor&ia *%embership Action Plan.. ,t is an understandable and 4elcomed aspiration of a ne4 democratically elected and 4estern oriented leadership of these countries to secure pro> democracy and pro>reform choice, to overcome traditional and painful dependence of their countries from unpredictable and provocative behavior of their former *bi& brother., 2ussia. U5raine, for e:ample is the only non>/AT0 country that supported all Alliance-s missions by sendin& its troops in Af&hanistan, Fosovo and ,raG. ,t is also unGuestionable that the future of these countries is closely lin5ed to their prospects for uropean inte&ration and that there are no reasonable alternatives to this strate&y. 2ussia, for e:ample, did not propose any 5ind of a 6ood /ei&hborhood Policy for U5raine or 6eor&ia. Vice>versa, these countries 4ere sub9ect of not so diplomatic treatment: trade 4ars and bloc5ades involvin& natural &as disruption to U5raine, banned import of famous 6eor&ian 4ines and other a&riculture products that badly affected their economies, massive deportations of 6eor&ians from 2ussia etc. The Guestion is not *to be or not to be. accepted into the Alliance, but ho4 to ma5e this process of uropean inte&ration and ad9ustment to /AT0 standards smoother and less painful for these countries and for re&ional peace and security as a 4hole. As

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See the conomist Special 2eport on America and the Borld. %arch (?th ())#, pp. E, D. The Art of Peace: 1rin&in& Diplomacy 1ac5 to Bashin&ton, by Chester A.Croc5er. Foreign Affairs, Auly> Au&ust ())C

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stonian President Toomas <endri5 ,lves mentioned at a press>conference in 1ucharest the *%AP is more of a bi& stic5 than a bi& carrot..D The problem is ho4 effective could be the *fast trac5. to the %AP in situation 4hen only $$H of U5rainians, accordin& to last month poll, supported the idea of /AT0 membership, 4hile almost 3DH stron&ly opposed it=C ,n the case of 6eor&ia the situation 4ith accession to /AT0 is also comple:. As my old collea&ue and friend Tedo Aaparid8e, former 6eor&ian Ambassador to the US and former /ational Security Advisor and 7orei&n %inister of 6eor&ia mentioned recently *4hat does 6eor&ia really 4ant= A /AT0 membership 4ithout the lost territories or some mystical assumption that 4ith a %AP in its hand, 6eor&ia automatically inte&rates 4ithin the /AT0 security net4or5, its conflict 8ones included= Does Tbilisi really e:pect /AT0 to fi&ht to recover the secessionist re&ions of 6eor&ia=.# President 1ush durin& his recent visit to Fiev decisively re9ected any doubts and *misperception. that the United States mi&ht soften its push to &et U5raine and 6eor&ia into /AT0 in spite of 2ussia-s harsh opposition. *There-s no trade>offs. Period,. he stressed. ? *The politics is the art of the possible., > President %.6orbachev once mentioned. This is even more appropriate for diplomacy that is by *its very nature the art of the possible.$) and its intelli&ent po4er prevails in the end over the *diplomacy of po4er.. As an economics professor and former ambassador , am al4ays thin5in& in terms of costs and benefits, of *the ne:t best alternative for&one., > an opportunity cost of a decision. U5raine-s and 6eor&ia-s eventual accession to /AT0 already provo5ed a deep crisis in 2ussia-s relations 4ith these t4o countries 4ith potential painful repercussions for other countries in the re&ion. 2ussian Duma !Parliament" recently recommended to &overnment seriously consider reco&nition of 6eor&ia-s separatist re&ions of Ab5ha8ia and South 0ssetia. The Duma proposed also to tear up the 2ussian>U5rainian Treaty or to e:tend it if U5rainians 4ill e:tend the 2ussian 1lac5 See 7leet-s presence in U5raine for
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1ush Supports U5raine-s 1id to Aoin /AT0, by Steven %yers, New-York Times, April (, ())#. %osco4, April $, !A No"osti # ,nside Trac5: 2oses for the 1ear by Tedo Aaparid8e. %arch (#, ())#, 444.nationalinterest.or& ? 1ush vo4s support for U5raine, 6eor&ia /AT0 hopes over 2ussian ob9ections by %atthe4 +ee, A#, April $, ())# $) Feynote Address at the Annual %eetin& of the Borld conomic 7orum. Secretary Condolee88a 2ice. Davos, S4it8erland, Aanuary (3, ())#

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another () years. , 4ould mention also the 2ussian 4ithdra4al last December from the Treaty on Conventional Armed 7orces in urope !C7 ", si&ned in $??) and adapted in $???, 4hich served as cornerstone of uropean security, mar5in& the end of the Cold Bar. verythin& has a cost. Volens>nolense these *local crises. are affectin& American>2ussian relations 9eopardi8in& the prospects for %r. 1ush-s ne4 *strate&ic frame4or5. idea for 2ussia. This happened in the time 4hen 2ussians seems to be inclined to accept it, especially if the American interceptors of eventual ,ranian or %iddle astern missile attac5s on uropean allies 4ill not be deployed in Poland and C8ech 2epublic until a threat is verified, and if 2ussians 4ill be invited to be part of control of this system. There are some other priorities in the American>2ussian a&enda discussed by the t4o presidents at their last official meetin& on April ' th, ())# in 2ussian resort Sochi. , 4ould mention 9ust fe4 of them: e:tension !or replacement" of the Strate&ic Arms 2eduction Treaty of $??$ that is scheduled to e:pire in December ())?I further reduction of thousands of fielded 4eapons a&reed upon in the ())( %osco4 Treaty on Strate&ic 0ffensive 2eductionsI advancin& their 6lobal ,nitiative to Combat /uclear Terrorism and a ne4 9oint initiative in the field of nuclear ener&y and non>proliferation, approved last Auly in Fennebun5port. Probably the best and most comprehensive e:position of these forei&n policy priorities 4as done recently by 6eor&e P.Shoult8, Billiam A.Perry, <enry A. Fissin&er and Sam /unn in an article entitled *To4ard a /uclear>7ree Borld. $$. The U.S. and 2ussia are facin& a challen&in& choice bet4een a ne4 partnership that could transform missile defense into an area of strate&ic cooperation, and a ne4 spiral of confrontation, sacrificin& all other bilateral and multilateral peace and security a&reements. *The Jmoment of truth- is comin&. %eetin& in Sochi mi&ht either lead to a ne4 lon&>term confrontation, or open the 4ay to formin& ne4 partnership relations., as noted Ser&ei 2o&ov, Director of the ,nstitute of the USA and Canada of the 2ussian
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To4ard a /uclear>7ree Borld by 6eor&e P.Shult8, Billiam A.Perry, <enry A. Fissin&er and Sam /unn, The Wall Street Journal, Aanuary $', ())#

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Academy of Science.$( ,t should be mentioned that the U.S. and 2ussia special responsibilities for ma5in& this historical choice derived from their *tra&edy of commons.: they possess ?'H of the 4orld-s nuclear 4arheads. The 1ucharest /AT0 session and Sochi 2ussian>American Summit mi&ht provide a chance to escape finally from the Cold Bar doctrine of *mutual assured destruction.. Alon& 4ith the strate&ic defense and the *4ar on terror. another 5ey idea at the heart of the current U.S. forei&n policy doctrine is the *democracy promotion a&enda.. Undoubtedly, in the lon& run democrati8ation is the prereGuisite of economic development and social 9ustice and the United States made an essential contribution to promotion of these values to the 4orld, particularly to the /e4ly ,ndependent States emer&ed on the ashes of the Soviet Union and communist bloc5. The democrati8ation 4as one of the most important criteria and stimulus for the uropean inte&ration of the ten former communist countries throu&h /AT0@ U enlar&ement process durin& last decade. Parado:ically, after this mission 4as accomplished a reverse movement started: democracy recession in the Central and astern uropean !C " countries. * U conditionality 4or5s best until you &et in, noted AacGues 2upni5, Director at the Fondation Nationale des Sciences #oliti$ues in Paris, but once you have 9oined there are fe4 incentives or means to induce further reforms or the observance of democratic norms.$3. <o4 to e:plain for e:ample the fact that after almost t4o decades from the collapse of communist re&imes and almost a decade of U inte&ration three Guarters of Poles consider democracy too indecisive or incapable of maintainin& la4 and order and about half consider that it does not really matter 4hether the &overnment is democratic or undemocratic= The Central and astern uropean political turmoil, > the re&ion of the 4orld 4here citi8ens are most s5eptical about the merits of democracy !Voice of People &lobal survey"$E, alon& 4ith 2ussia-s increasin& authoritarian transformation, the priority of *buildin& capitalism. over *buildin& democracy., political instability and e:clusion of
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U.S. to 7ace Choice: Partnership or Confrontation, by Ser&ei 2o&ov. %ommersant, %arch (#, ())# 7rom Democracy 7ati&ue to Populist 1ac5lash, by AaGues 2upnic, Journal of Democracy, Volume $#, /.E, 0ctober ())C. $E The Stran&e Death of the +iberal consensus, by ,van Frastev, Journal of Democracy, Vol. $#, /.E, 0ctober ())C

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economic policy from the democratic process represent a blea5 and depressin& picture of the crisis of democracy in ne4ly independent states. This is also a challen&e for American democracy>promotion component of forei&n policy. ,t is treated 4ith increased reservations by many e:perts, considerin& that democrati8ation, especially in 4ea5 and unstable states, can play into the hands of nostal&ic !pro>communist" and e:tremist forces, brin&in& them to po4er on fair and democratic elections. ,t happened, for e:ample in %oldova in ())$ 4hen unrestructured communist party 4on elections and started the mass pur&e campai&n a&ainst their opponents. This happened in the %iddle ast 4hen ,slamic e:tremist forces, such as <amas, 4on Palestinian elections, or 4ith <e8bollah in +ebanon etc. ,mportantly, only ()H of poled Americans a&reed that spreadin& democracy to other countries 4as *a very important. &oal of American forei&n policy and E(H consider that the country should stop playin& in other people bac5yard.$' Bhat are the prospects and limits of American diplomacy in transformin& this &reat Democracy idea into a meanin&ful and self>sustainable political mechanism of the /e4ly mer&ed Democracies= , thin5 that the 5ey ans4er is in the American assistance, in ma5in& this assistance more effective on the base of conditionality !selectivity" principle, in re>directin& it from corrupt Klites to civil society, in an effective chec5>and> balance mechanism of assessment its impact. 0ne of the most important innovations of President 1ush-s administration, and surprisin&ly ; less heralded, is the %illennium Challen&e Account that is providin& &enerous aid payments to ne4ly emer&ed democracies on competitive basis and in function of performances in three 5ey areasI a" implementation of the rule of la4, b" investment into healthcare and education and c" promotion of economic freedom. 6eor&ia is one of a fe4 countries from former Soviet bloc5 Gualified for such a pro&ram. Durin& last four years of 2ose 2evolution 6eor&ia undoubtedly chan&ed. The capital Tbilisi and even the most remote locations are illuminated, 4hich is a novelty in 6eor&ia-s almost t4o decades of transition. verythin& that could be liberali8ed and privati8ed 4as. ,n spite of the 2ussian embar&o on import of famous 6eor&ian 4ines and a&ricultural products and double increase of 2ussia-s prices for natural &as and other
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The conomist After bush. A Special 2eport on America and the Borld. %arch (?th ())#, pp. D, $E.

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ener&y recourses, 6eor&ia-s economy is boomin& 4ith a robust almost t4o di&its increase in 6DP and forei&n investment $D. 6eor&ia improved tremendously its position in the list of business friendly countries: from $$( in ())' to 3( in the ())# ,nde: of conomic 7reedom$C. ,n promotin& democracy principles as a ma9or component of American forei&n policy in the former communist countries it is important to not overuse it *to lecture. partners, or to force them *to be li5e you.. ,n &eopolitics of ($st century this is 9ust counterproductive, especially in the case of 2ussia even if this policy is pursuin& 4ith a noble intentions to *rescue. it from authoritarianism. The ne4 2ussia-s President>elect Dmitry %edvedev in a recent intervie4 spea5in& about 2ussia-s democratic development said it 4ould ta5e 3)>') years to assess its results. <e stressed that *the most difficult thin& is to find the interrelationship bet4een a universal nature of a democratic form and the national historical component.. The priority of any of these components, in his opinion, is dan&erous. $# The art of possible of diplomacy in this case is to en&a&e 2ussia in a ne4 strate&ic partnerships and cooperation in various areas, for e:ample in creatin& a modern open collective security system. This 4ould have positive multiplied effect on the other /e4ly ,ndependent States, on the re&ional and international peace and security as a 4hole. ,n conclusion , 4ould li5e to emphasi8e the importance of *democrati8ation. of diplomacy, 4hich is the ri&ht 4ay to increase its efficiency. Sir <arold /icolson, the famous 1ritish diplomat in his boo5 *Diplomacy. confessed that *democratic diplomacy has not yet discovered its o4n formula. $?. Today, almost C) years later, 4e, as 4ell as other democracies, are still in search of this ma&ic formula.

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2ussia bou&ht almost ?)H of 6eor&ia-s products, 6eor&ia: Slidin& to4ards authoritarianism= !nternational &risis 'roup( )urope eport / $#?, $? December ())C $C The real 5ey to Development, by %ary Anastasia 0-6rady, The Wall Street Journal, )$.$'.)# $# Dmitry %edevedev intervie4 4ith /icolai Svanid8e, !tar-Tass, %arch (C, ())# $? David D./e4som. Diplomacy and the American Democracy, !ndiana *ni"ersity #ress, $?##, p.$).