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Terrorist Attac7 Cycle Timeline

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Editor's Note: In light of the shooting in an American elementary school on Dec. 14, we have decided to republish the following analysis, which includes guidance on how to react when caught in a situation with an armed assailant.
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Afghanistan: Camp )astion At tac7ed

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Afghanistan: -oldier Dilled ?n -outh

By Scott Stewart
SEP 13, 2012

Over the past several 6ee7s 6e have discussed a num8er of different situations that can present a common pro8lem to people caught up in them9 :irst 6e discussed ho6 domestic terrorism remains a persistent threat in the +nited -tates and that despite improvements in security measures since !""# soft targets still remain vulnera8le to attac7 8y terrorist actors driven 8y a variety of motivations9 .ue to the devolution of the ;ihadist threat to6ard the grassroots there is also a gro6ing trend of ;ihadist actors using armed assaults instead of 8om8ing attac7s9 (e also discussed the continuing pro8lem of 6or7place violence and finally 6e discussed last 6ee7 evacuation plans for e3patriates due to natural disaster civil unrest or 6ar9 0eople caught in any of these situations could find themselves either confronted 8y an armed assailant or actually coming under fire in an active shooter scenario9 Of course there are other situations 6here people can find themselves confronted 8y armed assailants from street muggings and car;ac7ings to 8an7 ro88eries9 )ecause of this 6e thought it might 8e useful to our readers to discuss such situations and ho6 to react 6hen caught in one9

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Afghanistan: ! -uicide )om8ers Dill #! (ound &"

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.omestic Terrorism: A 0ersistent Threat in the +nited -tat es

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,educt ion in :rench 0residential -ecurit y FTearlineG

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Mindset
0erhaps the most important factor affecting a person<s reaction to a life-threatening incident is their mindset going into the situation9 As 6e have previously noted 6hen discussing situational a6areness the 6ay the 8rain is 6ired ma7es it very difficult for a person to go from a state of 8eing =tuned out= and completely una6are of 6hat is going on around them to a state of high alert9 (hen confronted 8y such a ;ump it is not uncommon for people to free4e go into shoc7 and 8ecome totally una8le to respond to the situation confronting them9 This type of panic-induced paralysis can 8e e3tremely deadly and at that point the only hope of surviving an incident is sheer luc7 or divine providence9 0eople in such a state can do nothing to save themselves9 Another factor of this mindset is the need for people to recogni4e that there are 8ad people in the 6orld 6ho 6ant to hurt innocent people and that they could 8e potential targets9 This means that people must not only practice situational a6areness 8ut also trust their gut 6hen they feel something isn<t >uite right9 .enial can 8e a very dangerous thing 6hen it overrides or rationali4es a6ay gut feelings of danger9 Over my former careers as a special agent and corporate security officer ? have intervie6ed numerous people 6ho allo6ed denial to override suspicious indicators they noted and 6ho then proceeded to do things that resulted in their victimi4ation -- all 8ecause they had the mindset that they could not possi8ly 8ecome victims9 These situations ranged from a mugging victim 6ho thought there 6as something odd a8out the 6ay three guys on the corner loo7ed at her to the 7idnapping victim 6ho spotted the deployed a8duction team 8ut proceeded into the attac7 4one any6ay 8ecause he thought the team 6ould target someone 6ith more money than his family had9 ?n shooting situations ? have spo7en 6ith victims 6ho did not reali4e that shots 6ere actually 8eing fired and instead dismissed them as pran7s or fire6or7s9 ? have seen media

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Aondon !"#! Olympics: A Threat Assessment

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A 0ract ical 'uide to -ituat ional A6areness

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.etect ing Terrorist -urveillance

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.etect ion 0oints in t he Terrorist At tac7 Cycle

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.ispat ch: Aone (olf At tac7 in )elgium

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-cott -te6art

reports of similar remar7s from 6itnesses regarding recent shooting incidents such as the Euly !" shooting at a movie theater in Aurora Colorado9 ?n short denial is deadly9 )y practicing the proper level of situational a6areness and understanding the possi8ility of 8eing targeted a person 6ill 8e mentally prepared to reali4e that an attac7 is happening -- something 6e call attac7 recognition9 The earlier a target recogni4es the attac7 the 8etter9 ?n the 7idnapping case noted a8ove the victim recogni4ed the attac7 8efore it 6as sprung and could have avoided a long Fand costlyG hostage ordeal had he ta7en immediate action to avoid the attac7 site9 As 6e have mentioned repeatedly criminal and terrorist attac7s do not appear out of a vacuum9 ?nstead they are part of a planning process that can 8e recogni4ed if one is loo7ing for it9 (e have also noted over the years that criminals and terrorists tend to 8e very 8ad at camouflaging their actions and their suspicious demeanors often leave them vulnera8le to early detection9 Admittedly there is the slight danger of em8arrassment in the aftermath of a false reaction9 ? have 8lushed after hitting the ground and rolling to cover in response to une3pected cele8ratory gunfire in /emen 8ut in general it is far 8etter to initially overreact 6hen there is no threat than it is to underreact in a truly dangerous situation9 )ut even if one cannot avoid an attac7 recogni4ing danger immediately and then >uic7ly ta7ing action to avoid it can often mean the difference 8et6een survival and death9

-cott -te6art
-cott -te6art supervises the dayto-day operations of -tratfor<s intelligence team and plays a central role in coordinating the company<s analytical process 6ith its 8usiness goals9 )efore ;oining -tratfor he 6as a special agent 6ith the +9-9 -tate .epartment for #" years and 6as involved in hundreds of terrorism investigations9

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-ome people have 8een critical of the simplicity of the =,un *ide :ight= pu8lic service video availa8le on /ouTu8e 6hich 6as produced 8y the City of *ouston and funded 8y the .epartment of *omeland -ecurity9 ?n our assessment the video does a good ;o8 achieving its goal of raising a6areness of active shooter situations and of providing a simple easy-to-remem8er mantra similar to the =stop drop and roll= fire-prevention slogan9 The video also discusses the necessity of having an evacuation plan and 8eing a6are of surroundings9 ?s the video a complete self-defense courseJ Clearly not 8ut it does meet its limited o8;ectives9 Once a person has recogni4ed that an attac7 is ta7ing place a critical step must 8e ta7en 8efore they can decide to run hide or fight -- they must determine 6here the gunfire For threatG is coming from9 (ithout doing so the victim could run 8lindly from a position of relative safety into danger9 (e certainly encourage anyone under attac7 to get out of the attac7 site and run a6ay from danger 8ut you must first ascertain that you are in the attac7 site 8efore ta7ing action9 Many times the source of the threat 6ill 8e evident and 6ill not ta7e much time to locate9 )ut sometimes depending on the location -- 6hether in a 8uilding or out on the street -- the sounds of gunfire can echo and it may ta7e a fe6 seconds to determine the direction it is coming from9 ?n such a scenario it is prudent to >uic7ly ta7e cover until the direction of the threat can 8e located9 ?n some instances there may even 8e more than one gunman 6hich can complicate escape plans9 :ortunately most attac7ers engaging in active shooter scenarios are not 6ell-trained9 They tend to 8e poor mar7smen 6ho lac7 tactical e3perience 6ith their 6eapons9 :or e3ample in his attac7 on a Aos Angeles Ee6ish community center daycare Aug9 #" #KKK )uford :urro6 fired H" shots from an +4i-style su8machine gun 8ut only 6ounded five people9 The +4i is an effective and highly accurate 6eapon at short distances meaning the only reason :urro6 did so little damage 6as his poor mar7smanship9 .uring the Euly !" shooting in Aurora Eames *olmes only managed to 7ill #! people -- despite achieving almost total tactical surprise in a fully pac7ed theater -- due to a com8ination of poor mar7smanship and his ina8ility to clear a malfunction from his rifle9 This typical lac7 of mar7smanship implies that most people 7illed in active shooter situations are shot at very close range9 There are some o8vious e3ceptions li7e the shooting at the +niversity of Te3as on Aug9 # #K11 6hen e3-Marine Charles (hitman shot several people from the top of a to6er on the college campus9 )ut even then most of (hitman<s victims 6ere shot early on in his attac7 and his a8ility to successfully engage targets declined rapidly as victims reali4ed 6here the shots 6ere coming from and either moved a6ay from the threat or too7 cover and 6aited for the authorities to respond9

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)alancing -hia and -unni ,adicalisms

The ?slamic ,evolut ionary 'uard Corps 0art #: An +nconvent ional Milit ary

,EAATE. CONTENT
.omest ic Terrorism: A 0ersist ent Threat in t he +nit ed -t at es Didnapping: An Avoida8le .anger

A8ove t he Tearline: ?nside a 0rot ect ive Agent <s Mind

,EAATE. -?T+AT?ON ,E0O,TAfghanistan: ! -uicide )om8ers Dill #! (ound &"

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North Dorea: Army Cleared To Attac7 +nited -tates

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M.ACC
As seen in the (hitman case potential victims can do several things to reduce their chances of 8eing shot even 6ith a trained shooter9 (e use an old acronym to descri8e these steps: M.ACC 6hich stands for motion distance angle cover and concealment9 :irst it is much harder to shoot a moving target than a stationary one especially if that target is

Egypt: +9-9 -tate .epartment Orders -ome Em8assy 0ersonnel To Aeave Country
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moving at a distance9 Most tactical shootings happen at distances of less than H meters9 ?ndeed there are very fe6 people 6ho can consistently hit a stationary target 8eyond !& meters 6ith a pistol much less a moving target9 Most people can put !& meters 8et6een them and an attac7er in ;ust a fe6 seconds so motion and distance are your friends9 The angle 8et6een the target and the shooter is also important 8ecause shooting a target running a6ay in a straight line is easier than shooting a target running a6ay at an angle since the second scenario 6ould re>uire the shooter to s6ing the 8arrel of the 6eapon and lead the target9 )oth re>uire a good deal of practice even 6ith a rifle or shotgun9 ?f the target can run at an angle 8ehind o8;ects li7e trees cars office furniture or 6alls that o8struct the shooter<s vie6 of the target FconcealmentG or stop 8ullets FcoverG that is even more effective9 (hether running or trying to hide it is important to distinguish 8et6een concealment and cover9 ?tems that provide concealment 6ill hide you from the shooter<s eye 8ut 6ill not protect you from 8ullets9 A 8ush or tree leaves may provide concealment 8ut only a su8stantial tree trun7 6ill provide cover9 A typical office dry6all-construction interior 6all 6ill provide concealment 8ut not cover9 This means that if a person is forced to hide inside an office or classroom they might 8e a8le to loc7 the door 8ut the shooter 6ill in all li7elihood still 8e a8le to fire through the 6alls and the door should they choose to do so9 -till if the shooter cannot see his or her target they 6ill 8e firing 8y chance rather than intentionally aiming9 ?n any case those hiding inside a room should attempt to find some sort of additional cover li7e a filing ca8inet or heavy des79 ?t is al6ays 8etter to find cover than concealment 8ut even partial cover -- something that 6ill only deflect or fragment the pro;ectiles -- is 8etter than no cover at all9

The ?nner (arrior

Mindset also 8ecomes critical 6hen a person is 6ounded9 ?n active shooter situations it is not unusual for many more people to 8e 6ounded than 7illedM this also relates to the issue of poor mar7smanship discussed a8ove9 ?n such a situation it is e3tremely important for the 6ounded person to understand that unli7e 6hat is portrayed in the movies most 6ounds are not immediately fatal and rarely immo8ili4e the victim right a6ay9 *o6ever it is not uncommon for people to drop to the ground 6hen they are shot and free4e in panic or go into shoc79 This gives the shooter an opportunity to approach them for a point-8lan7 coup de grace9 ?t is very important for people to reali4e that most gunshots are surviva8le and that even after 8eing 6ounded their 8odies can continue to function to get them a6ay from the attac7 site and to safety9 Certainly once a target gets out of the immediate danger 4one they 6ill 6ant to see7 first aid or treat themselves 6ith improvised pressure 8andages to stop the 8leeding and avoid going into shoc79 Modern trauma medicine is very good and as seen in the Aurora shooting most victims 6ounded in these types of attac7s 6ill survive if they get prompt medical assistance9 ?t is no mista7e that training regimens for special operations forces soldiers and serious athletes place so much emphasis on the mental aspect of com8at and sports -- that is learning that your 8ody can 7eep functioning and continue to do ama4ing things even after your mind has told you that it is time to >uit9 That same sense of drive and determination the inner 6arrior can help 7eep a person<s 8ody functioning after they have 8een 6ounded9 The inner 6arrior is also critical 6hen it is time to fight rather than to run or hide 8ut that is a topic for another time9

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