Career Coaching and Life Success

There Is Always An Alternative
Discover And Shape Your Personal And Professional Future
Ute Hlne von Reibnitz
There Is Always An Alternative

Discover And Shape Your Personal And Professional Future
This book is a translation from the French edition Il y a toujours une alternative dcouvrez et faonnez votre avenir professionnel, ECONOMICA Paris. In addition to the French version a fourth case study has been integrated.
Translated from French into English by Adam Gerber. For further information, see the authors website: www.scenarios-vision.com
Names, characters, places and incidents are the product of the authors imagination; any resemblance to actual persons, living or dead, is entirely coincidental.
Copyright 2010 for the English version by Ute Hlne von Reibnitz, author. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, scanned, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording and/or otherwise without the prior written permission of the author. This book may not be lent, resold, hired or otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form, binding or cover other than that in which it is published, without the prior consent of the author.
ISBN: 9783839172278
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 1 THE BENEFITS OF ANTICIPATION .................................................................. 5 PROCEDURES AND METHODS TO OVERCOME CRISES .................................. 9 THE FUTURE FASCINATES AND FRIGHTENS ................................................. 13 A BRIEF HISTORY OF FORESIGHT ................................................................ 15 CAROLINE, MARTIN, SAMIRA, AND JOHN ON THEIR JOURNEY TOWARDS THE FUTURE ............................................................................................... 21 THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS ............................................................... 29 STEP 1: TASK ANALYSIS .................................................................................... 38 STEP 2: INFLUENCE ANALYSIS............................................................................. 56 STEP 3: PROJECTIONS ....................................................................................... 62 STEP 4: CONSISTENCY ANALYSIS ......................................................................... 75 STEP 5: SCENARIO INTERPRETATION .................................................................... 80 STEP 6: CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS ....................................................................... 95 STEP 7: WILD CARD ANALYSIS ......................................................................... 117 STEP 8: SCENARIO TRANSFER ........................................................................... 129 HOW TO MANAGE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS THOUGHOUT THE PROCESS ... 139 THE CONDITIONS FOR A SUCCESSFUL PROCESS WITH OR WITHOUT A COACH ............... 139 LACK OF TIME ............................................................................................... 141 MANAGE ORGANIZATIONAL PROBLEMS .............................................................. 142 HOW TO OVERCOME METHODOLOGICAL DIFFICULTIES ........................................... 144 BOOST YOUR CREATIVITY ................................................................................. 144 EPILOGUE ................................................................................................. 153 BIBLIOGRAPHY ......................................................................................... 155
INTRODUCTION
This book is a completely new approach to self-help. It will allow you to focus all of your energies on the achievement of your objectives while remaining open to all the possible future opportunities which are certain to come to your aid. The Scenario method that is used within this volume is not particularly newit has been used for decades and with great effect in assisting political decision-makers, as well as those making decisions on behalf of small, medium, and large enterprises. It has proven highly effective in helping organizations prepare themselves well in advance of subsequent changes and challenges. Nevertheless, this method has not yet, to my knowledge, been applied to individuals. Can the individual benefit from such an effective method? The answer is of course, yeson condition that we adapt it properly. My success as a personal coach has demonstrated that the Scenario Method works by elucidating new perspectives and by opening doors theretofore unknown or considered unbreachable. This process allows the individual to move beyond virtually any impasse, be it external or self-imposed. This book is particularly important to me because it represents the realization of a personal aspiration long in the making. All throughout my career as a coach and consultant to business, I have used the principals described in this volume on myself, on close friends, and eventually on others. I have been positively astonished by the results; particularly how this method allows one to consider lingering problems in a completely new light and then find unexpected solutions to them. That is why I set out to
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document this process and write this bookfor the benefit of all those who want to take control of their destiny. There are those who wonder; How can I anticipate the future when I dont even know how the month is going to end?, or Will I still have a job in two months time?, or Will my diploma guarantee me a job when I graduate? etc. These pressing problems demand an immediate response and rapid resolution; and of course, we have to be able to manage the here and now before dealing with the future. Yet there are others who, with the help of a compelling vision, are able to free themselves of their routine troubles. So driven are these people by their vision of the future, they quite easily dismiss the trivial, deal with their daily problems with ease, and ultimately surpass their greatest expectations. Have you ever resolved a problem only to find yourself once again in a similar difficult situation? If the actions and behaviors which led to the original problem werent resolved, then why should you expect to end up anywhere else than right back in the same difficult spot. If, however, you take the initiative, anticipate, are pro-active, and learn to change your behavior, you absolutely can change your situation and you can succeed. This volume shows you how to do it and more importantly, shows you how to create the will to shape your future with courage. This book will guide you on your path to your most intimate universe, and reveal a fascinating and joyful future. You are the only one responsible for your future. If you dont shape your future, who will do it for you? You are the CEO of your life. What could be more passionate than planning for, preparing, and managing your life? Let yourself be guided by this book as if you are at the dawn of an exciting journey. This book will serve as your guide and help you learn what you ought to discover, and what you should approach with caution or avoid altogether. The decision to undertake this voyage now belongs to you, but dont forget your guide, There Is Always an Alternative. I would like to thank all those who, throughout the writing and editing of this book, have supported and encouraged me; journalist, friend, and colleague Gundula Englisch, whose advice
INTRODUCTION / 3
was invaluable; and last but not least, my dog Nelson, who during the long hours I spent in front of my computer, remained faithfully by my side.
THE BENEFITS OF ANTICIPATION
Heres my definition of intelligence: to be able to see not only that which is under your nose, but also that which the future is likely to bring you. Terenz
The desire to know the future, to understand, or even to divine that which awaits us, is as old as humanity itself. The methods which promise to elucidate the future are also as original, funny, particular, and outrageous as those who have invented them. Consider animal sacrifice from antiquity whose entrails served as signs for oracles, or the more occult procedures such as astrology, numerology, or legends such as the Oracle of Delphi. The choice of method varies according to the tastes and preferences of each. All the methods of prediction of the future have something in common, not a single one, to this day, has ever effectively predicted the future. Everyone tries to be rational about anticipating his or her own future, and the market for such products is ever-expanding. The more nebulous the methods, the more lucrative they seem to be. When we consider the subject of the future, we ought to keep in mind the following two principles: 1. The future is not foreseeable (and that's a good thing!) 2. However, you can shape your future. With respect to the first principle: Let's imagine that you could actually predict your future. What would be the consequences? You would know in advance all the happy moments that await you, as well as all your future trials and tragedies. You would even know how and when you're going to die. How does one live knowing all that? You would, in all likelihood, do your best to avoid the tough times, but all of your
energy would be absorbed in the avoidance strategies and you would neither have the time or the strength to enjoy the happy moments. There are those perhaps who would go so far as commit suicide to escape the suffering that destiny had in store for them. But, of course, that would stop you from living all the enriching and positive aspects of your life. If, for example, you had been condemned to die in a car accident, you would try, by all means possible, to avoid cars on that predestined day. However, escaping your destiny is not so easy. Do you remember the story of the merchant of Samarkand? Having learned that he was supposed to die on the same day, he left the town in order to escape death, but wherever he went, he saw nothing but violence, death, pestilence, and suffering. He fled from town to town, and at nightfall he found himself back in Samarkand. At the city gate, the Grim Reaper welcomed him with these words, There you are, finally, I have been waiting all day for you. The lesson to draw from this story is that you may be able to shape numerous elements in your life; however you will never be able to master everything. And that's an excellent point of departure because predicting the future is impossible. This ignorance allows us to enjoy the happy and abundant times of our life without reservation or regret. Moreover, it helps us to get over the ordeals without torturing ourselves for months or even years in advance. Knowing nothing of our future allows us to draw lessons from our past, and assume lifes responsibilities. It allows us to seize our destiny in our own hands, find new solutions, and develop ourselves personally as human beings. As Marcel Proust once said, Happiness is good for the body, but sorrow allows us to develop our mind. Anyone who has a little experience with life will confirm this truth. Those whove had to overcome hardships are stronger for them. Difficult experiences often give us a completely new sense of meaning and direction in our lives. Everyone has already heard declarations such as, If I hadnt been so initially misfortunate, I would have never met my companion, or realized such an outstanding career. We all know how crises can have a salutary effect. Without them, we would
THE BENEFITS OF ANTICIPATION / 7
get bogged down in the routine of life without ever examining our actions in a critical way. When we are at an impasse, there are two solutions. We can either stay there (which is extremely uncomfortable and in the long-term may provoke illness), or we focus all of our energy and resources in finding a solution. With respect to the second principle: Yes, it is possible to forge our future. What does that mean exactly? Can we create a desired future to the minutest detail? The answer is yes, but only with a good portion of humility vis-vis the greater forces, God, or whatever you wish to call it. Let's be clear, shaping your future does not mean being selfcentered, but it requires a close exchange with the world and people around usthose who inspire and challenge us. We need more than just a little flair and intuition; we also need a method to understand how the future may develop in a systematic and systemic way. This book offers you these methodsmethods which will allow you to construct your own future and confront it without fear. Why should you be concerned about the future, especially during a period of crisis? Crises are moments that are both difficult and important in our lives. They are the impetuses which allow us to grow personally and encourage us to make better decisions. The Chinese character which means crisis is composed of both danger and opportunity. This is why I assume that each problem is a challenge and that each crisis marks the beginning of something new. If, my dear readers, you envision your life with this perspective, you have everything to gain. As Paul Watzlawick, the great American Psychologist once said, every misfortune has a positive aspect, and vice versa. That is why I invite you to appreciate the positive aspect of every crisis. Without crises there is no change in direction. Human beings need to be confronted with challenges. These challenges push us
to explore new horizons and effect lasting and positive change in our lives. How to get out of a crisis? There are several models. The model proposed in this book is a method that has stood the test of time, and one that has been used in the corporate world for a long time.
PROCEDURES AND METHODS TO OVERCOME CRISES
You ought to imagine your life as a path, where you are both the point of departure and the horizon. Jacques Salom
The approaches that allow us to overcome crises are numerous, and they range from the simple to the extremely sophisticated. In the following passage, you will be introduced to some of these approaches in increasing order of complexity. DO NOTHING AND WAIT FOR THE CRISIS TO PASS At first glance, this solution isnt particularly exciting, but its nevertheless the recourse of numerous politicians and executives. The most famous adherent to this approach is the former German chancellor Helmut Kohl, who had perfected the method to such an extent that he had practically made it his brand. However, this approach is far from being infallible, and thus must be used with prudence. Doing nothing and waiting often makes the problem worse and so we shouldnt resort to this approach unless we are absolutely certain that waiting will not sour things further or have dreadful consequences. Thus, my advice is to avoid this approach when facing a crisis, because the risks are simply too great. CONTINUE TO MUDDLE THROUGH THE CRISIS AND HOPE THAT THINGS WORK OUT This particular approach also has numerous adherents, not only among average folk, but among executives, and those in positions of political power. Its the method of choice for
those who fear change, especially change concerning themselves or their immediate environment. Furthermore, the manic activity that accompanies such an approach allows one to indulge in the illusion that one is actually doing something. However, this approach rarely reveals an exit to the crisis, except when the crisis isnt terribly serious and would otherwise be resolved on its own. IGNORE THE CRISIS OR CONCEAL IT Hiding your head in the sand and believing firmly that the crisis doesnt exist is an approach quite popular in political circles. Theres a trillion dollar budget deficitno problem! Despite the fact that the economy is tanking, well simply focus on the good economic news, scarce and insignificant as it may be. Besides, my economic advisors tell me that we have made tremendous progress concerning the deficit! If we translate this approach into the language of enterprise, we often hear CEOs speaking in the following terms, The market is not performing as well as we would expect, however we [our company] have outpaced the S&P500. Nevertheless, the CEO is concealing fact that the company's latest acquisition has exhausted all of its financial resources, and as a consequence the company must lay-off thousands of employees. Despite the companys horrible performance, we mustnt forget to generously compensate the executives, especially the CEO. We are all familiar with this discourse, and you neednt look much farther than the business section of your daily newspaper to find it in one form or another. This approach has numerous adherents. We all know the husband who has systematically ignored his wife with respect to what wasnt working in their relationship only to find himself alone one day, after she packed up her bags and left with the kids.
PROCEDURES AND METHODS TO OVERCOME CRISES / 11
ANALYZE THE CRISIS, ALONG WITH ITS UNDERLYING CAUSES, AND SEEK LASTING SOLUTIONS This approach requires a little effort, a clear mind, an analytical capacity, and ultimately the ability to resolve problems. There are myriad methods for analyzing problems, from the simple to the highly complexeach one having its own particular application. However, all of these methods have the following elements in common: Define the problem. Distinguish between causes and consequences. Elaborate alternative solutions. Its important not to implement the first solution that comes to mind, because it may not necessarily be the best one. Rather, I recommend envisioning multiple possible solutions, evaluating them with a clear mind, and then implementing the one which is best adapted to the problem at hand. Once the solution is in progress, the work continues. You need to verify that the chosen solution has led to the desired result. In the language of management, we call this process result evaluation against quantitative criteria. SYSTEMICALLY EXAMINE THE CAUSES AND DEVELOP A SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM This method includes the steps from the above method, plus its fortified by a systemic approach. Define the problem. Distinguish between causes and consequences. Deconstruct and understand the underlying mechanisms and systemic relationships beneath the causes. Identify both the driving and driven forces inherent in the system. A driving force is the equivalent of the playmaker on a football team. The playmaker determines the strategy, sets up the play, determines which players which will be involved, as well as the
required tactics to score the goal. Once youve identified the playmaker, its very useful to play along in order to optimize results. Like with Aikido, its important to use all forces, including those of your enemy, to your advantage. Now that we understand the mechanisms inherent in the system, we need to develop several ideas which are evaluated, tested, and ultimately implemented. Once the solution is implemented, the work is not yet finished. At this point, you need to verify that the chosen solution is actually achieving the desired results. RESOLVING PROBLEMS WITH A FORESIGHT APPROACH The last method enumerated here "systemically examine the causes and develop a solution to the problem is the Foresight approach and it is the subject of this book. It will lead you, I hope, along new paths full of exciting new discoveries. This method will be described in detail in the following chapters, and it incorporates; classic analytical methods, systemic methods, and strategic Foresight.
THE FUTURE FASCINATES AND FRIGHTENS
To be happy, all you have to do is accept the unforeseeable Jacques Salom
Einstein once said, Nothing is more fascinating than the future because it is there that Ill spend the rest of my days. All those who fear the future should keep this aphorism in mind. What could be more passionate or exciting than the future? Nothing is more passionate, especially if we are able to awaken a child-like curiosity and a passion for discovery. In the past, these faculties have allowed us to experience exciting adventures and are the source of our self-confidence. You certainly remember your childhood, dont you? Those moments when you escaped beyond your backyard to explore new and forbidden territories about which your parents knew nothing. You also remember, without a doubt, the feeling of empowerment upon returning that night, tired and hungry, but proud of your adventures, and full of desire to return to the vast world newly explored. What has changed since? Where is this world of your adventures, of unexpected possibilities, discoveries, and the unknown? Where is this pioneering spirit that you have since abandoned? Try to rediscover this child-like curiosity for all that which is beyond the visible horizon. Does that titillate you? Are you excited like the child that you once were? If so, then youre on the right track. That which awaits us now is only possible if you rediscover the desire and the courage to explore the unknown. The realm we call the future will inspire an irresistible desire within you, and ultimately lead to lasting happiness. As much as the future elicits positive feelings such as desire and curiosity, it also frightens, paralyzes, discourages, and threatens
because it is full of uncertainty and risk. Furthermore, the future is often perceived as a threat which could worsen the existing situation. That is why there are so many of us who are afraid of the futurenot only so-called ordinary people, but also accomplished executives and politicians. All of them at one point or another have been afraid, timid, or have not dared to speak out. Politicians are particularly adept at beating around the bush, and thus people no longer understand their evasive responses or relate to their beguiling platitudes. Despite fear, change is required in every aspect of social life, particularly in the political, economic, and ideological spheres. Change brings with it all that is necessary to shape, create, and reinvent our world. Change gives us the courage to brave new solutions and we must learn to accept change with poise and enthusiasm. The obstacles that confront us must ultimately crumble so that we can perceive the opportunities which are concealed beyond. Thats easier said than done. We all know that change requires effort and it often raises questions which we have erstwhile ignored. The most uncomfortable aspect of change is that we dont really know what will transpire. Will we be satisfied with our new situation? Will it serve us better or worse? To what extent must we change in order to adapt? In general, we have no problem demanding or congratulating change among others; however, when change concerns our own opinions, entitlements, privileges, habits, and comfort, its a completely different story. Yet, there is no way to escape from change. Change is intractable, and the sooner it happens the better. The more we anticipate, the better we can transform change into an opportunity and create positive change in our own lives. You must become a shaping actor.
A BRIEF HISTORY OF FORESIGHT
Fate assists only those who act. Sophocles
Imagining and shaping the future, or rather scenarios of the future, is a well-known activity among American, European, and Asian companies. Foresight is also known among government agencies, where it has been practiced for decades. The methods for Foresight are rather complex, and this is why, to date, no one has tried to apply them to individuals. A brief history of Foresight as it is applied in organizations may be useful before we continue. Whether applied to organizations or individuals, the foundations are essentially the same. The scenario method, which is one of the fundamental methods of Foresight, has had numerous contributors. We can find some of these same ideas in the philosophy of Seneca, who declared, Its more important to understand how things are going to evolve, than to understand from where they came. This is particularly relevant to Foresight. We also borrow the following aphorism from Seneca, Not a fair wind blows for him who knows not where he goes. This epiphany jumpstarts the process and helps you to decide where to go. Someone who wanders aimlessly is continually buffeted by external circumstances and is tossed around like a rag-doll landing every which place, except the very place where he wanted to go. One of the greatest war strategists of all time was the Prussian general Clausewitz. According to this strategist, the objective is the military and political imperative, war is the means to achieve these ends, and strategy is the mode of attack. Translated into the language of business, the goal is to become the market leader in terms of volume or quality; the strategy might be a new target
market or the extension of a product or service line. With respect to strategic planning, the definitions of Moltke and Clausewitz are just as valid today as they were when they were written 200 years ago. Heres some timeless advice: Attack your enemy where he is the weakest. Develop your strategy around your greatest strengths. Dont lose sight of the long-term objective, in other words, its more important to win the war than any particular battle. The term scenario applied to a strategic context was coined by Herman Kahn of the RAND Corporation in the 1950s. For Khan, scenarios are descriptions of various outcomes of simulated wargames, whose objectives were to best prepare the US Dept. of Defense in the event of war. The Battelle Institute in the US (Seattle and Columbus) and Europe (Frankfurt and Geneva) conducted much research in the 70s and 80s in the methods of Foresight. They combined their own research with the findings of Pierre Wack, who developed scenarios as a strategic planner for Royal Dutch Shell in the late 60s and early 70s. In Europe, the history of Foresight and scenarios began in France in the 50s. The two founding fathers of French Foresight (called la prospective) were Bertrand de Jouvenel and Gaston Berger. They had come up with the idea that the future could portend wild cards, discontinuities, and paradigm shifts. They also broke with the Cartesian vision of the world which had prevailed up until then. Descartes had been particularly enthralled by the apparent perfection of Newtonian physics. Newtons laws had accurately predicted everything from tides to planetary orbits. Descartes had erroneously projected Newtons physical determinism onto the whole of the universe. For Descartes, the world functioned like a giant machine whose parts and mechanisms could be understood. This erroneous view of the world encouraged generations of scientists to grossly overestimate their powers of prediction and control. The advent of the student revolts of the 1960s and the oil shock of 1974 clearly demonstrated that nothing was predictable, particularly in the economic realm. Worse yet, all the data concerning past
A BRIEF HISTORY OF FORESIGHT / 17
events were useless for making forecasts. The nave paradigm of prediction was finally put to rest. The cold-war military scenarios had a particularly visionary character, but military decision-makers often ignored why and how these end-states evolved. However, in enterprise and public organizations, understanding the evolutionary mechanism of change in scenarios is essential. The future, regardless of philosophical characterized by the following axioms: orientation, is
The future is neither determined nor determinable. The future always contains uncertainty. The observation that there is always more than one future alternative is directly related to this uncertainty. No one is able to say what will happen, and we must envision several alternatives in order to deal with this uncertainty. The only way to master uncertainty is to think and act in terms of alternatives. Those involved with the French school of Foresight (la prospective) have added the following essential questions; Who am I?, From where have I come?, and Where am I going? In this respect, it is interesting to compare the Foresight cultures of France, Germany, and the Anglo-Saxon countries. In German, no adequate term exists to designate the discipline of Foresight or those who practice it. In English, there exist two inadequate terms; Foresight and futurology, and those who practice it are called futurists. German speakers use the word Zukunftsforscher which literally means researcher of the future, which doesnt really correspond to what they are doing, since they hardly pretend to be researching what does not already exist. I believe the French terms prospective and prospectiviste are the best adapted to this new discipline. Lets return to the pioneers of the scenario method and the French school of prospective. Prospective was applied for the first time at DATAR, a government agency, responsible for regional planning, and also by the French governmental planning
commission. Prospective is a toolset widely used by public utilities such as EDF, Gaz de France, France Telecom, SNCF (French National Railroad), and by regions and municipalities in order to develop regional policy. In the English and German-speaking countries, as well as in Scandinavia, the scenario method and Foresight had found its way into enterprise after the first oil shock, and particularly after the realization that there were indeed limits to growth as the Club of Rome had anticipated. The first oil shock had shaken their faith in single-point forecasting. Henceforth, nothing was predictable and any Foresight exercise had to consider alternatives about the future. Pioneers of the scenario method were companies in sectors which were the hardest hit by the oil crisisnamely the energy, oil, and automotive sectors. Later, the chemical, pharmaceutical, healthcare, banking, and other service sectors would also adopt the scenario method. We can say one thing for sure; so long as a sector is doing well, none of its decision-makers imagine changing anything. Its only when external changes loom large that decision-makers begin to perceive a sense of urgency. The comparison between France, Germany, and the Anglo-Saxon world (including northern Europe) is instructive. In France, the government was the first-adopter and private industry followed, whereas in the Anglo-Saxon countries, the evolution was the oppositethe first users had been private enterprise, and governments have only recently warmed to the idea of using scenarios. Unfortunately, governments in some European countries are still rather timid about using scenarios. Foresight is now a widely-used set of tools for industry and government, and it is used around the world. The rise of Malaysia as a highly developed modern country is based on Malaysias former leader Mahathir bin Mohammad and his Foresight exercises such as Malaysia 2020 and others. North African and Middle Eastern countries have also eagerly adopted Foresight,
A BRIEF HISTORY OF FORESIGHT / 19
which has helped them create ambitious visions, and more sustainable, manageable futures for their respective countries.
CAROLINE, MARTIN, SAMIRA, AND JOHN ON THEIR JOURNEY TOWARDS THE FUTURE
Always dare to do that which is best for you, as this prerogative is singularly yours. Jacques Salom
In order to best explain the various stages of the process, were going to use case studies of four people who find themselves in various life situations. Lets start with Caroline, a 21-year-old French student in the middle of her studies of management. She wonders whether she should do her studies at HEC (Haute Ecole de Commerce, an elite French business school) without interruption, or whether she should take one or two semesters off and go abroad. She knows that future employers place a lot of value on international experience and language skills. She also knows the industry in which she wants to work later. Shes given some thought to these issues, but she hasnt yet made any decisions. Her areas of interest and her hobbies vary from one day to the next, as is the case with many young people today. One of her student friends, originally from Tunisia, recently brought her to her belly-dancing course, and Caroline indulged with passion. Shes also interested in perfume and anything else related to olfactory perception, which is why she dreams of working for a large perfumery or cosmetic company abroad. She also became passionate about the environment following a project concerning environmental protection organized at her University. Caroline has many interests, but she has a hard time formulating clear objectives. Shes not the only one to suffer from indecision. A large majority of her generation asks similar questions.
She had been skeptical about the career counseling program at her university, but then after getting to know one of the counselors, she became rather enthusiastic about it. She and the career counselors sifted through her competencies and character traits. After a thorough analysis, a Foresight exercise was proposed. First, shell get some coaching in Foresight, and then shell go through the Foresight process with her friend/coach. Our second example is Martin, who is a 41-year-old German in mid-career. He manages a unit of a reputable German mechanical engineering firm. He spent the better part of his career in this company and has given his best. He has been distinguished numerous times by executive management because his initiatives created new products and processes with which the company realized both savings and revenue. Martin speaks proudly, even in private, of this company with which he strongly identifies. Martin has been married for fifteen years, and has a twelve-yearold son, and a nine-year-old daughter. Despite their occasional differences, Martin gets along very well with his wife who is an independent journalist. Both he and his wife declare that the secret to their success as a couple is founded on open communication in every situation and on reciprocal curiosity which fifteen years of marriage has not managed to erode. Martin has known for some time now that his company is in trouble. Despite the companys success in several areas, they have failed to gain a competitive edge in world markets. Consequently, top management is looking for a powerful partner and global player which could take over the company and make it fit for the global market. Unfortunately, there are not a lot of attractive prospects. Most of the candidates who seem interested, only want to break up the company, keep the most profitable parts and then sell the rest. Everything is still rather tentative. Either the company declares bankruptcy, or itll be bought out but what will happen then? There is a lingering hope that the company will be bought out, but by whom and under what conditions? Will the acquiring company still need Martin or will he be redundant?
JOURNEY TOWARDS THE FUTURE / 23
All of these questions weigh heavy on Martins mind. As a leader and entrepreneur he feels altogether impotent. He just has to wait it out, which is really difficult for him. Martin has discussed these issues with his wife Isabelle, who encourages and reassures him. Martin, who had always slept like a dormouse, gets up every night and paces around, waking up the rest of the household. When he starts complaining of stomach pains, loss of appetite, and takes sleeping pills and medicine for gastrointestinal problems, Isabelle intervenes. She suggests that Martin go to the source of the problem rather than dealing only with the symptoms. She also suggests that he contact a professional life coach. As a journalist, Isabelle is adept at researching and quickly finds numerous methods and coaches. They both agree that a Foresight coach named Ariane is best adapted to Martins situation. Ariane offers Foresight workshops for companies and individuals, and has a long-standing and successful track record throughout the world. The third person is Samira, a professor of Management and Marketing at Sultan Qaboos University in Muscat, Oman. She is married and has two children; 18 and 20 years-old. Her children have already started their studies abroad, one in France and the other in England. Her husband is an engineer and holds a top management position in one of the leading petrol companies in Oman. Samira is a well known economist and has studied in Oman and in the UK. After lecturing for several years at the university in Muscat, shes become restless and has decided to find a new challenge in her professional life. There are several options, such as a research job at the university in Abu Dhabi, lecturing at the university in Cairo, or working in an Omani ministry, but none of these alternatives inspire her. After a long evening of Internet research, she contacts an old friend and coach, Khaled, who is a head-hunter and an accomplished social networker. Khaled is well-connected and understands the elite job market in Oman very well. Samira is convinced that she needs a new challenge either in academics or in industry. Khaled asks some crucial questions and guides her gently towards other alternatives. Samira, Ive known you since quite a long time and Ive always considered you an
entrepreneur. Why dont you create your own company? Great idea, but what kind of company? Ive got a lot of theoretical knowledge, but I havent got a clue about practical business issues. replies Samira. Well find the right match; we just need to consider what inspires you, analyze your strengths, and consider market conditions in Oman. Dont bother looking outside Oman. The country needs people like you, particularly women who can serve as inspiring role models to others. Also, consider your husband; I cant imagine he would be terribly happy to see you working in another country. And dont forget that His Majesty, Sultan Qaboos, is encouraging women to take a more active role in economic and political affairs. You wont find such favorable conditions in other Arab countries, particularly for women. And by the way, I found a book which describes a Foresight process for helping individuals to discover and shape their futurethis is exactly what you need. Ok, youre right Khaled, entrepreneurship is a long-time dream of mine, but Ive given up on it. Let me read the book and discuss it with my husband when hes back from his business trip, and then Ill call you in a few weeks. Samiras husband Ahmad is quite surprised to hear about her ideas. Ahmad has known for some time that Samira has been restless at work, but her entrepreneurial vocation seems rather far-fetched to him. He has always supported her ambitions, even if doing so put him at odds with the rest of the family. The two met at university and Ahmad was immediately attracted to her not only by her beauty, but also by her intelligence. He has always been proud of his smart and successful wife and defended her whenever the family wanted that she remain at home and raise their children. Listen, Samira, all your life you have worked very hard, you have achieved a brilliant career; your parents, your brothers and sisters couldnt even dream of that. And now you need a change. Ok! I understand that; what about a new career in the public serviceperhaps one of the ministries? I think you have excellent connections and could probably find a government post easily. I was planning on spending more time with you, particularly after the children have grown up and left the house. I was planning on travelling, horseback riding, or just enjoying life after all those tough years. And now you want to
jump head-over-heels into an entrepreneurial venture. Do you understand the amount of work and time you need to dedicate to a start-up? I know what I am talking about; a new company will be exhausting and it certainly wont be easy! Dont forget, your business partners and clients will be principally men and not all of them are particularly modern. Youll have to swim with the sharks; this is not the protected university world you know. Im sorry, but I think this idea is a mistake, and I will not support you. Samira is shocked and disappointed as her husband has always encouraged and supported her, even against family and friends. Samira is conflicted, and Ahmads hostility disturbs her. She considers capitulating and spends several sleepless nights ruminating over her decision. Despite Ahmads reluctance, she decides to at least try the Foresight process. The entrepreneurial bug has already infected her, and she decides to proceed with the Foresight process in order to clarify her ideas. If creating a company proves reasonable, then shes prepared to do it. Khaled is pleased to assist. He does some additional research on individual Foresight in order to be ready to start their process the following weekend. The fourth protagonist is John, an American, who is a successful director of a bank and edging towards the end of his career. Everyone knows him in the financial district (the City) of London. He is one of the leaders in the financial services sector and is frequently recognized for his outstanding and innovative ideas, which always seem to succeed. John has always been very concerned with success, while remaining very human (far from being a typical financial shark). He has used his success to conceive and implement new methods to aid developing countries. His colleagues speak of him fondly and with much respect. John is a visionary and a man of action who has given capitalism a human face. John is 60 years old but doesnt look it. He is bursting with energy and passion for his profession and far from imagining retirement. When he speaks to his colleagues of the same age, they look forward to their retirement and finally having enough
time to improve their golf handicap. John wonders if he really belongs to the same generation. Work life has always been a priority for John but his private life has suffered as a consequence. He has three adult children born of two different marriages, scattered around the world and with whom he tries to maintain contact despite the distances. John recently married a young Italian woman several years his junior named Guiliana. Guiliana moved to London for love, but she misses her Italian life, and makes longer and longer trips to her native Italy. In the past, John was the one who went on business trips and left the family all alone. Now, for the first time, its he who feels abandoneda situation which puts him very ill-atease, and in a bad mood when he returns at night to an empty apartment. While John is home alone, Guiliana is working and thriving as a textile designer in Italy where the opportunities are far more numerous. Guiliana knows the business, the people, and the mentality in Italy. In England, her career as an independent designer was going rather poorly. As a consequence, John finds himself alone more frequently and has started to think about himself, his past, his ideas, his successes, and his failures. The scorecard is not uniquely positive. Johns professional life, has, without a doubt, been successful. Hes famous and appreciated. However, Johns personal life has been rather depressing. He often thinks back with nostalgia to the time when his children were younger. Then, he was more absent than present, and rarely was the father who told stories during bedtime. What does he really know about his children who are now adults? What makes them tick and motivates them? Are they satisfied in their professional lives, and happy at home? He suddenly realizes that he knew nothing about all of that. When he speaks to them on the phone or when they exchange e-mails, most of the time its of the quality, Everything is going just fine, Dad. which means, What do you really know about our dreams and our lives? John feels a painful and uncomfortable emptiness, and begins pacing about his luxurious mansion without knowing what hes looking for.
In his huge library, characteristic of his erudition, one can find works of philosophy and poetry, not only in English but also in French and Italian. There, John looks for books which correspond to his current situation. He falls upon a volume describing how to live the last third of life offered to him by a former colleague, and which he had never opened. He discovers a new world therein. The last third of his life is not an end, as he believed it would be, but rather something new and fascinating. He decides not only to read it, but to use it to help him professionally. He never does things half way, its all or nothingthats always been his way of doing things. However, he doesnt want to resort to a coach or a typical management consultant, and he doesnt have enough experience or confidence with this sort of thing. But who might really help him then? He thinks about it for awhile, and then his old friend Nomonde Maphisa from Burkina Faso comes to mind. Nomonde, a priest who has a profound knowledge of human behavior, is a naturalborn coach. Since Nomonde comes to London frequently, it shouldnt be too difficult to collaborate with him. Nomonde accepts, and immediately goes to work preparing himself as a Foresight coach.
THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS
Its impossible to reach other shores if I dont have the courage to leave this one Andr Gide
Preliminary Remarks on the Foresight Process Before discussing the Foresight process of Caroline, Martin, Samira and John, Id like to digress with a little history of the philosophy of Foresight in order to demonstrate why certain steps are followed and in what order. What is the secret to anticipation? The secret is that you must place more importance on the future than on the past, and consequently, invest more time in preparing for the future. That doesnt mean that you ought to forget the past completely. The past forms the base of the present and supplies, at least in part, the necessary resources to master the future. What are the actionable resources for the future? They are, among others; education, experience, and the various facets of your personality. You mustnt forget your ideas; particularly alternatives, thoughts, and hypotheses about the future. Then, youve got to find the courage to consider and adapt them to your future. Its much easier to analyze the past, than the future. When you consider the past, you have all the facts and figures at hand, but if youre not careful you can easily get bogged down in the details. We all know how easy it is to complain about the past, especially when things dont go as planned. There is never any shortage of rumors, recriminations, and distorted truths about the past. Recently, I was witness to a situation on a train which demonstrates to what extent we can spoil the present by living in the past. An older couple was obviously having a hard time
finding their reserved seats. Instead of trying to find a solution and, in case there was any doubt, to ask a conductor, a loud discussion took place which caused a scene, and utterly amused the rest of the passengers in the train car for 10 minutes. I dont want to get into the details of the dispute which was punctuated by such phrases as, you always do such and such, and you never listen to me, and even you never do what I tell you to do The exchange could have been the subject of several doctoral theses in psychology. The dispute not only degenerated in terms of noise and insults, but they dug further and further into their past. The wife, mad with rage, finally ended the argument with, If I had never married you fifty years ago, I would never have had such problems. No further comments are necessary. Now, lets assume the following question: what function does this dispute serve in resolving a concrete problem such as finding reserved seats, or in a more general way, the future problems of these two people? The response is simpleit does absolutely no good at all. Quite the contrary, as it keeps them from finding a solution to their problem. Of course, we can say that we wish we had drawn a few lessons from our mistakes and that, if we are consistent and with a little luck we wont repeat them. But one day, well have to ask the question; what lessons can we draw from our past in order to best approach our future? I always get disappointed when I realize that this question is rarely asked, either in a personal or professional context. Nevertheless, this is an extremely important question. All of us have found ourselves amid the rubble of a failed relationship, project, or idea and have sworn, I will never do that again. Once youve achieved a little emotional distance, you should proceed with the following analysis of the circumstances. First, find the root causes and the consequences of this failure, and then ask yourself: In the future, what must I do differently, or how can I do things better? If the past has taught you anything, lets hope that you will no longer make the same mistakes, and that you will now do things better. There is no strategy that allows us to completely avoid mistakeswe will always make some mistakes. However we
THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 31
must draw lessons from our mistakes, and hopefully, we will have grown in the process. Often, mistakes are quite useful insofar as they lead to a different way of thinkingand without them were incapable of growing. Consider natural evolution for a moment. Some of the most highly evolved, robust, or specialized species are those which have had to adapt to an evolutionary journey fraught with peril. It seems nature always learns her lessons. We can always learn something from the past with regard to human behavior, but we cannot deduce any hard and fast rules. The future is not foreseeable and you cannot transpose the paradigms of the past into the future, particularly in the domains of economics, politics, technology, and social change. After having concerned ourselves with the past, lets now turn towards the future, which is far more passionate and interesting. How can we effectively imagine the future? Sometimes, I have fun simply asking my friends, clients, partners, and seminar participants, what comes to their mind when they think about the future. Ive gathered their responses which you can read in a condensed form below. If we analyze their responses, we observe that most people are rather pessimistic concerning the future of their country, the economy, their job, their standard of living, their retirement, and the environment. On the other hand, if they imagine their personal future, that of their family and their friends, or if they consider their health, a general optimism prevails. This psychological mechanism certainly corresponds to our need for protection. In fact, if we did not have such a defense mechanism, we would live in perpetual anxiety. When we want to understand how to manage our future, we need to consider the past and present as if it were a runway or a launch pad. Consider a space shuttle which requires an enormous amount of thrust to leave the launch pad and eventually enter orbit. The moment that an airplane takes-off or a space shuttle lifts-off it is airbornethats to say, its no longer supported by the earth but rather by the air.
Likewise, when you want to take off towards the future, the initial step requires a lot of effort. We must prepare ourselves for the future in a similar way and accelerate down the runway with self-confidence, certain that we will eventually take off towards other spaces. In the third dimension, thrust and vertical lift play an indispensable role. We must leave our precious Earth behind us, in order to enter this new dimension. Everyone, or practically everyone, knows what it feels like when an airplane takes off. The feeling is even stronger in a single-prop airplane or a glidera sensation we dont really feel in a jumbo jet. The sensation usually inspires feelings of exaltation among passionate aviators, and acute distress among those inexperienced with small aircraft. This moment of tension is unforgettably followed by a feeling that we can describe as follows; swoosh! The Earth is below us and everything is now possible, so long as we respect the laws of aerodynamics and physics. I would like to help you feel this sensation of swoosh during the takeoff towards your future. It should tickle your gut and lighten your head. Lets stay on our nice little airplane for a while. We have now gained some altitude and the altimeter tells us that we are at 3,000 feet. We look down and we see the airport, the city, the countryside, the forests, and the rivers. We have a wonderfully intoxicated feeling, as if were soaring and weve jettisoned the extra ballast of our daily worries far behind. Any extra deadweight is likely to slow down our ascent. Its exactly the same with the future. We must leave behind all that unneeded baggage from the pastthose things which weigh us down along our path towards the future. A plane cant carry too much weight, or be unbalanced; otherwise it simply cant take-off. Moreover, the conscientious pilot verifies his instruments, plans, and ensures that the load is balanced before take-off towards the future (fuel, maps, flight plan, weather information, instrumentation, etc.) If the plane is overloaded, we must decide which superfluous items to leave behind, which if kept on board would jeopardize the flight and our lives. Now, we are ready to enjoy our flight. The turbulence shakes us
occasionally and we observe the countryside contemplatively. When we look down, there are two things immediately apparent at high altitudes: The roads, the houses, the people and their problems seem very small, insignificant, and innocuous. Everything seems to lose its threatening character. The hot-air balloon pilot Bertrand Piccard, who circumnavigated the globe in record time, once said when confronted with a problem, You need to change your altitude. Piccard was right. The physical and psychological distance which occurs when you change your altitude will allow you to put things in perspective and the solution will come automatically. We also have a global view, rather than a partial view, and we perceive the relationships amongst things. We are struck with awe by the intrinsic logic of the system. Problems never happen in isolation, but rather we must understand them in their context in order to resolve them. As much as the freedom of flight above the clouds is agreeable, we must recognize that the plane must eventually return to the airport. The pilot goes through his checklist in order to prepare for landing, and the plane begins its descent. The Earth gets closer and we once again distinguish the details, the houses, the roads, and the trees. Everything is getting closer and we realize from our new vantage point that something has changed. That which has, up until now, been difficult or ominous, seems to become far more manageable and the details which we had not noticed before, take on a new significance with respect to our future. This feeling persists up until the point when we reach the end of the airstrip. When we get off our small airplane, still a little bewildered and impressed, we realize that something has indeed changed. Not the world, but our perception of it has been modified. Our surroundings seem more intense and perhaps we are more receptive to them. We have discovered relationships amongst various things which we had not realized before the beginning of our flight, and we are forced to consider them with respect to our future.
What can we learn from the flight experience concerning our vision of the future, and what can it teach us? Assertion 1: Flying is, literally and figuratively, safer than excursions into the future. Even when a plane moves into the third dimension, its movements are supported by reliable laws of physics, which allow it to take-off, cruise, and land. Assertion 2: In the same way that the flight must be prepared with the aid of technical instrumentation, weather data, flight plans, calculations concerning fuel supplies, load, practical matters such as avoiding prohibited areas etc., the aviator must also be well organized and prepared. This includes notably information on the general environment such as; modifications not represented on maps, alternative flight plans, and understanding how to use external resources if necessary. All of the aforementioned items allow us to take-off, but lets not forget to return from our voyage towards the future. The ground in this metaphor signifies yesterday and today. We take off into the air and we discover new, strange, beautiful, surprising, but also frightening things all around us. Then, we return to the Earth with this virtual experience and knowledge. What happens then? The present seems different because its viewed from a different angle. We understand that in the future and beyond the clouds, anything is possible. The current problems undergo a transformation of perspective, are reorganized, lose their importance or are framed differently. That may mean that those things which we consider important and controversial today will lose their importance as they become reframed. Everyone knows the following discussion which takes place at large corporations. First its thought that the company needs to increase its sales staff, but as the discussion deepens, the company realizes that they dont actually need more salespeople. Rather, the company needs to train existing staff because business is done more and more via the Internet and e-business. The initial discussion concerning the sales staff is moot.
Another example: the board of directors would like to erect a monument in glass and steel. What could be more appropriate than an ominous, new headquarters? However, after some reflection on the matter, they wonder what the utility of such a building would be. An incursion into the future clearly demonstrates that more and more companies work virtually, and meet in dynamic networks. Employees are transformed into project leaders whose hours and place of work are entirely flexible. The number of administrative posts has been reduced dramatically. Nevertheless, companies continue to spend large sums of money on beautifying their headquarters in order to impress clients, partners, and suppliers with the latest technologies and high-tech architecture. In a family setting, were all familiar with the following discussion: We absolutely need an SUV to shuttle the kids and their sporting equipment around. If the parents project themselves into the future, theyd realize that this particularly intense phase of their lives, with three adolescents at home, will only last two years, and then the eldest will leave for college. Rather than buying a huge car, what they need is better and more rational organization, coordinated with their neighbors and friends. Youve probably already wondered how long your car sits idle in the garage, or how much space it occupies, or even how often you actually use it. If we do the math, its clear that the car is parked between 80 and 90% of the time and is on the road (with the exception of travelling salespeople) between 10 to 20% of the time. We should call the automobile the autostationary. Now consider your own family, friends, and relatives. In most families, there is one car for every adult person. There again, with a little bit of thought and anticipation, the number of vehicles, the costs, the consequences for the environment, and wasted space could be reduced to the benefit of everyone. If it werent for our ego and our sense of entitlement, we wouldnt own many of the things we have. John Rifkin, the American author of economic Foresight, proclaimed the end of the obsession with property. That which
we need is not property, Rifkin says, but rather access to goods and services to achieve our objectives. You dont own the car that you hire during your vacation or business trip. Nevertheless, you can use it whenever you need it. Furthermore you only pay when you use it. After this small digression with respect to the rationality of certain needs, lets turn once again toward the future. Many wonder how the future is represented. According to the experts in Foresight, the future has n dimensions. With the exception of theoretical astrophysicists, no one is capable of fathoming this n-dimensionality. Lets try to represent it with the help of a three-dimensional space, such as the funnel illustrated below.
All the possible imaginable future situations are at the mouth of the funnel. Its not however necessary to consider them all. That would be an impossibly huge task and the result would not be worth the effort. Whats important to consider is what well call the archetypes situated at the opposite end of the funnel. If you are capable of managing the archetypes, then youll also be able to do the same with all the intermediate scenarios. Contrary to what many in Western culture think, the world is neither black or white, nor good or bad. In Asian cultures, this principle is embodied by the Yin-Yang principle. Neither Yin nor Yang is better than the other, but the two aspects are complementary. For example; light and dark, round and sharp, hard and soft, smooth and rugged, cold and hot, night and day, and of course, man and woman, are all complementary. After having imagined the possible futures, we now need to draw some consequences. What do all these changes mean for me, my career, my personal development, and my life? How can I adapt myself to them, and confront them? How can I take advantage of these changes? To know more, were going to look at the case studies of Caroline, Martin, Samira, and John and attempt to learn some lessons from their experiences.
Step 1: Task Analysis
To make the possible happen, we must always attempt the impossible. Hermann Hesse
The goal of this first step is to clarify the current situation for everyone, particularly the blind-spots, in order to create a launch ramp towards the future. The method begins with an analysis of the current situation. Most people are capable of making an analysis of the present. After all, its much easier to think about things critically and analytically in the present than to think creatively about the future. Nevertheless, lets lay down some ground rules: Giving yourself a little psychological distance from the problem will guarantee you a more neutral and objective analysis. Exposing the problem to numerous people or different points of view will allow you to avoid a unilateral and subjective analysis. (The principle of multiple views avoids blind spots. Blind-spots are character qualities, beliefs, or traits which are difficult to accept because they are unpleasant or embarrassing.) All the available data must be gathered to render the analysis as objective and transparent as possible.
If we utilize the term problem, we can also speak about the task or theme. Often, those things we want to modify are not necessarily a problem. Task, theme, and problem can be defined in very different ways. The scenario method is very flexible and permits a certain amount of adaptation to all degrees of complexity; that of the individual, the organization, the sector, or even the nation. If we understand the theme and its structures, its strengths and its weaknesses, it is then possible to enumerate the questions to which wed like to respond. Its important to distinguish between the scenario method and other procedures. Rather than responding to questions about the future by using data from the past (this is a common mistake), I recommend that you respond on the basis of hypotheses concerning the future. Why? Because the principles and paradigms which seem immutable today are often obsolete in the future. Lets take a few examples: During the 1980s, the formula strong growth = low unemployment rate and weak growth = high unemployment rate was still accepted wisdom. Associating significant growth with high unemployment rates would have been absurd. However, economically speaking, that is what has characterized the last few years in Europe. Lets take another example. It was once considered unthinkable that Germany would join the ranks of Russia and France against the American invasion of Iraq. The Americans were used to France and Russia trying to spoil their plans, but up until then, Germany had been a loyal, even submissive partner. The fact that Germany acted against the interests of the United States was quite surprising to many American politicians. We should never draw our conclusions about the future from the past. History can teach us lessons, but we mustnt transpose its rules onto the future. There are those who will certainly object and say that history repeats itself (genocides and wars persist), however all of those things fall under the rubric little or nothing learnt about the past. Its important to take into consideration the changes which have happened over the course of time, notably
unexpected changes. The Americans are proud to declare, Think the unthinkable! without always applying this advice to themselves. The Europeans have had a hard time applying this advice which goes against their rational way of thinking. The American mode of thinking, on the other hand, is less conventional, experimental, and out-of-the-box. Whether it concerns a tsunami, a terrorist attack, civil wars, or other events, we always observe entirely new combinations, factors, and phenomena. Its futile to try to deduce the future entirely from the past. Lets confront these new events without excessive fear, but with a vigilant mind, and always ready to ask critical questions such as; what could change in the future and how? What are the new paradigms which could appear? What are the rules of the game in the past which will likely become obsolete? Why do we fear change? How can we manage it? HOW TO PROCEED Its best to begin with some critical self-analysis. I have known numerous managers who are capable of doing this for their company with a flip of the hand. However when it comes to doing the same thing for themselves, they become very disconcerted when they realize that theyve never applied the same rigorous analysis to themselves. Here are the questions: Who am I? Where do I come from? What makes me who I am? What are my values, those that I would never abandon under any circumstance? What is my mission? What is my reason for living? What is the meaning of my life? What is the vision of myself as a person? Who, what and how I want to be in the future? What is my ideal conception of myself that which I want to become? What objectives do I pursue in order to fulfill my mission and realize my vision? What strategies have I deployed to attain these objectives? (divided into short, medium and long-term)
What are, among my weaknesses, those which are stopping me from deploying my objectives and strategies? What are, among my strengths, those which assist me in deploying my objectives and strategies? You may consider the former questions to be delicate. Furthermore, its likely youve never considered such questions. Dont worry, youre not alone. There are precious few, unfortunately, who have asked themselves such important questions. Now is the time to give your life new depth, meaning and a future orientation. The first part of the following exercise consists of trying to respond to the above questions in the most honest way possible. Cheating or lying wont get you anywhere because youd only be cheating and lying to yourself. Dont worry, most people, with the exception of highly spiritual ones such as the Pope and the Dalai Lama are not really capable of responding spontaneously to these questions. Everyone else has to think long and hard. Sometimes, we cant answer all the questions right away. Again, dont worry, thats ok. You are now engaged in a learning process, which means that you have the right to err, on the condition that doing so teaches you something useful about your future. To make things easier, read the responses of our four protagonists. Sometimes, they may make you laugh, and sometimes they may make you cry. You may even recognize yourself in their stories. CAROLINES RESPONSES Who am I?
Good question! Im someone rather happy and optimistic. I love to laugh and look on the brighter side of things. Sometimes, I get a little depressed when I see so many qualified young people in France without work. That saddens me and I wonder what will happen when I have my degree in hand. But I dont get discouraged easily. I will surely figure something out. I also have an acute sense of justice, and I feel responsible for the environment. I tend to get upset when I see people polluting or abusing the environment.
Where do I come from? What makes me who I am?

I come from a modest family in the south of France. My father was in the army and thats why Ive already seen a large part of the world during my childhood, like for example; Pakistan, India, United Arab Emerites, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Taiwan. I have been in contact with multiple cultures and learnt to appreciate their differences, which has inspired a certain desire to work internationally. My parents taught me and my brother a respect for other cultures, other religions, and a sense of justice. I attended a good school and I worked hard to get into HEC (Haute Ecole de Commerce an elite French business school). This period was difficult in my life, but I dont regret it. I learned discipline, endurance, and tenacity, and I know how to succeed in my professional life.
What are my values, those that I would never abandon under any circumstance?
The values which I would never abandon under any circumstances are; sincerity, a sense of justice, and a respect for nature. Everything else is negotiable.
What is my mission? What is my reason for living? What is the meaning of my life?
My godwhat I question? It could have been asked by my professor. Im going to try to answer in the most sincere way possible. I dont exactly know my mission, but I imagine that it consists of leaving the world better off in my chosen profession, and more worthy of being experienced and loved. I dont know yet wether thatll be in the form of the environment, law, or something else.
What is the vision of myself as a person? Who, what and how I want to be in the future? What is my ideal conception of myselfthat which I want to become?
My vision for myself is someone that others remember as positive and warm.
What objectives do I pursue in order to fulfill my mission and realize my vision?

Ill take a pass on this question. My only goal at the moment is to get my diploma.
What strategies have I deployed to attain these objectives? (divided into short, medium and long-term)
Im sorry but since I didnt answer the previous question, I cant reply. Is that serious? Will that spoil the process?
What are, among my weaknesses, those which are stopping me from deploying my objectives and strategies?
Having neither objectives nor strategies, the question is moot, Caroline says in a mischivious way. However, she is mistaken because she always has strengths and weaknesses which she will have to manage. She ended up listing her weaknesses:

- Impatience. - The lack of perseverance (I give up too easily when something doesnt go as well as I had planned.) - A lack of focus on an objective is a problem for me. I tend to vacillate among objectives from one day to the next. - I can also be somewhat superficial, and when the going gets tough, I tend to be satisfied with just trying to convince others that Ive made an effort. - My lack of self-confidence and my feelings of inferiority vis--vis the other students who have spent time abroad and brag about it.
What are, among my strengths, those which assist me in deploying my objectives and strategies?
Carloine lists the following: - An iron will when its about those objectives which are really important to me. - Intelligence in logical and linguistic domains good grades in English and Spanish. - The ability to brush myself off and get back up when Ive failed or been disappointed, and then fight even harder next time. - My optimism and my certainty that I will succeed one way or another.
Caroline, with the aid of her friend/coach Marie, review the responses and then submit them to one of their university professors for feedback, who noted; For a 21 year-old girl, its rather mature work, especially in her mission and vision statements. Most of the responses I see are far less sophisticated, even from experienced managers. MARTINS RESPONSES Who am I?
Im a doer and shaker. Im someone who loves to construct and to build things which most people would consider impossible. I always need a new challenge, a new thrilla mission impossible. Thats why, in my current company, I have created several new business units which has given me much satisfaction. The stages of this process have not been easy. There has been a lot of stress when something didnt work out as planned, and I had to play fireman to put out fires at the last minute to avoid a crisis. I spent many late nights at the office, but that had been a wonderful period in my life, as if I had been high on adrenaline. My crowning achievement was when I presented the results with much fanfare to executive management. When the project had finished, I fell into a deep depression. At that moment, someone offered me my next challenge. When that was finished, I once again quickly became bored. I dont like to be involved in a project during the latter stages of its lifecycle. Thats why, after the creation stage, I willingly changed jobs to work as an executive. Up until now, that has worked out just fine. I also like managing others, by offering them advice and helping them in

their professional development, particularly when their objectives converge with those of the project at hand.
At that point, Martin was interrupted by his coach Ariane, who asked him, All of that is passionate, but what kind of man are you? You are not only a manager, but also a husband, father, son, brother, friend and neighbor. Martin sits back and thinks for a moment intensely. He almost seems to be bothered to have to put so much effort into the response, but finally he responds:
Well, if you ask my wife, she will certainly tell you that Im a polygamist. A polygamist? Yes, she will tell you that she has an extremely attractive rival incarnated as my job. She would even go further and say that my job is my first wife and she is my second. Its true that I spend a lot of time at the office, but in my position, its impossible to do otherwise.
Lets forget your job and get back to your private life. interrupts the coach.
Right, my private life. Dont get me wrong, I get along very well with my wife. She is not only very attractive, but also very intelligent. If I couldnt talk to her about my problems at work, I dont know what I would do. My wife is the heart and soul of the family, and I dont know how she manages to do it and lead a career as an independent journalist. She writes for international economic magazines, and I admire her a lot for that. She is the principal caregiver to the children whose concerns sometimes escape me. Aside from the occassional squabble, we get along swimmingly well, and I can say that shes the person whom I count on the most in my life.
What does your wife appreciate in you most?

I think its my reliability and that Im a good listener. She particulary appreciates when I spend quality time with the kids. Oh yeah, and when shes away on business from time to time, I free myself to be completely available for the kids. My kids relish these moments as much as I do. I think Im a pretty good father and definitely involved with my family, but its not the case all the time. My friends appreciate the fact that Im there when someone needs me, and Im particuarly attached to my dog. Often, I take him for long walks when I get home, which does me as much good as him.

I come from a modest family of five children of which Im the eldest. Early on, I assumed responsibility for my younger siblings. My upbringing was very strict. When I did something good, like look after my younger siblings, or received good grades at school, I got a lot of accolades and recognition, and I felt loved. Thats why I have always tried to be the b est at school and in sports. I didnt always succeed, but often enough. Being an example and gritting my teeth; these where the hallmarks of my childhood which have marked me up until the present day. A seminal event in my early life was the interuption of my engineering education, a subject which haunts me to the present day and about which my parents remind me regularly. Consequently, I now overcompensate in my professional life, not only must I succeed in everything I do, but I must do it better than anyone else.
Loyalty and reliability are very important to me. Doing my best and honoring my commitments is also fundamental. Keeping my promises is equally important. I cant stand lies, even though I already cheated on my wife once, but I didnt want to tell her because I was afraid that it would hurt her, or worse Id lose her. Anyway, Id appreciate it, if youd keep that confidential.
No problem, responds Ariane, a coach always treats everything a client says in absolute confidentiality. What is my mission? What is my reason for living? What is the meaning of my life?
I am on this earth to realize ambitious projects in which nobody believes but me. As a friend once remarked, Make mission impossible possible. Im the one who believes in a project when everyone has already quit, and will see it to the end despite them. That trait has served me equally well in business as in private life. When I die, I would like to be remembered as someone who has transformed his dreams into concrete, tangible reality.
What is the vision of myself as a person? Who, what and how I want to be in the future?
My vision is to share my enthusiasm with others for the projects and subjects about which I am passionate. Equally important is the vision I have for myself, which is to be a good father and example for my children, and capable of the same enthusiasm.

That is rather difficult. Im not the kind of guy who plans everything in a strategic way and constructs clear objectives and strategies. My objectives

and my strategies usually come from my gut, and I act on feeling depending on the situation. Most of the time, this method seems to work for me.
I think Im going to have to take a pass on this question, or should I make something up?
No, replies Ariane, the proper analysis of your current situation should be done with reliable data. Dont invent anything; youd only be cheating yourself. Consider this exercise a bit like going to the doctors office. When you get your blood tested, your doctor doesnt try to downplay or hide your cholesterol figuresit is what it is, and you have to deal with it in a responsible way. What are, among my weaknesses, those which are stopping me from deploying my objectives and strategies?
Given that Ive not yet defined either objectives nor strategies, I can hardly describe my weaknesses in a general way. But okay, lets give it a shot. - Impatience with people who have a hard time keeping pace with me, or who dont share my capacity for learning quickly. - Stubbornness and aggressiveness, even when those traits are not terribly appropriate. - Going above and beyond, even if that means collateral damage. - I always think I know better than everyone else. A colleague once said to me cynically, Martin knows everything, and those subjects he doesnt know, he knows even better. I also have a hard time delegating tasks because I always assume that I can do the work better. My refrain is: its best to trust yourself. Im also a man of extremes and when Im relaxing, I become extremely lazy and nothing gets me motivated; and so I tend not to contribute to housework as much as I should.
Martin lists the following: - My strong will to complete projects and missions effectively and quickly. - My self-confidence and my capacity for discipline. - My capacity to motivate and train others. - My capacity for turning seemingly impossible situations around and making them succeed. - I am a man of actiona rainmaker. - I have a good sense of humor, and often very black.
Arians feedback; Your personality is a little bit too centered on your professional life. For a man of action like Martin, the absence of objectives and strategies seems odd.
SAMIRAS RESPONSES Who am I?

I am a curious person. Whatever I have done in my life, Ive always tried to get to the bottom of the problems. I enjoy my research and development work and to enable people to perform better. What inspires me most is supporting young people in their personal development. That is why I love my teaching job at Sultan Qaboos University so much. Its not only lecturing; the real satisfaction comes from coaching students to become independent, self-confident adults. But having done this for so long Im beginning to feel a little burnt-out, and I need a new inspiring mission, maybe close to what I am doing at the university.
Khaled interrupts her; Tell me something about Samira as a human being and as a woman.
I am a family person. Family comes first and is always my sanctuary no matter what happens. Some members of my family, particularly my parents and my brothers, view family in a different light because they dont share the same family orientation as me. Giving my children the best possible education at school and at home is paramount. At home I am a very loving, but demanding mother and I enjoy spending time with my children. For me the intensity and the quality of time is more important than the quantity. Family values come first. I believe Ive done a good job of instilling honesty, hospitality, and civic responsibility in our children. The fact that both my children study abroad was not accepted by everyone in the family, but it was their choice and my husband and I encouraged them. We both know that they have internalized a profound value system, and with that they can shape their life and career as they like.
And now Samira, tell me more about you, Khaled asks.

Well, Im an optimistic person, for me the glass is always half full. Even in the actual crisis with Ahmad, I cant imagine that the impasse will continue long. Im sure we will solve our problems and that hell be more open -minded to the outcome of the Foresight process. I enjoy intellectual debates with Ahmad, my family, friends and colleagues; we spend nights discussing politics, philosophy and the future of our country. Whenever I have some spare time I go horseback-riding outside Muscat, in order to recharge my

batteries, and to enjoy nature. Unfortunately, I am so busy with my work and my family that I havent enough time for this wonderful sport. I am a good networker and I still keep in touch with my colleagues from Oxford. I am often the one who organizes our reunions. Maintaining this inspiring network requires a lot of travel; but I love travelling to Europe and I always come back with new ideas for my courses and for my private life. I enjoy seeing how people in other countries live, and what kind of problems and concerns they have. Comparing ideas, social models, and also the role of women in other societies is interesting.
Would you like to live in Europe? asks Khaled.

No, not really, but Europe is a sort of reference and a source of inspiration. When I compare Europe to our society, I find that Europeans lack family values, hospitality, among other things. Individualism is very strong there, and that enables people to strive for self-realization and live their individual lives without much consideration for those around them. On the other hand, more and more people live alone, without much contact with others. You know, sometimes they find dead people who died months earlier in their flats. Nobody was missing them. I cant imagine that this could happen here. Here I have my roots, my family, my values, my culture and an environment which corresponds to our heritage and to what we have achieved in Oman in the last 38 years.

I come from a family with strong traditional values; I was born in the time of old Oman, when our country was lagging behind the modern world. Do you remember that? There were very few schools, no universities, no health care system, low literacy, no transport or communication infrastructure, and so on. My father worked as a farmer and technician who maintained the faludj system (the Omani irrigation system) and my mother stayed at home raising the children. But when Sultan Qaboos came to power everything in our life changed. He made school attendance compulsory for boys and girls and I was eager to learn, even more than my brothers. My 3 brothers and 2 sisters also live a comfortable life. Two of my brothers work in the petroleum industry, and one in public service. My sisters are teachers; and they have all studied in Oman. I was the only one who studied in Muscat and then in the UK for two years thanks to a scholarship. It was a big deal and my family discussed it at length before I left. Nevertheless, I did manage to persuade them, perhaps more than I convinced them. In the beginning it was very tough for me. I felt homesick and learnt how much the family meant to me, even little things like my brothers teasing, my sisters laughter, and how my mother used to keep the peace. But this happens very often in life; the moment you lack something or someone you become aware of its importance. During the two years abroad I learnt some great life lessons.

More important than the MBA was what I gained in insight about the UK and European culture, values, Western lifestyles, the functioning of their economic, political and social systems, and the role women can play in public life. I have seen both the good and the bad side of European culture. What am I today? My roots in Omani culture and values are very strong, and I am happy and proud to be an Omani woman. But there is also a modern and Western part of myself and my ambition has always been to take the best of these two cultures and to combine them into something more advanced, something innovative.
What are my values those I would never abandon under any circumstance?
My most important values are family, honesty, loyalty and hospitality. Whatever happens, my family comes first and this has often been in conflict with my professional ambitions. Nevertheless, Ive managed to reconcile family and career. Honesty is also extremely important to me and this makes life sometimes very difficult. I cant trust or accept people who are a bitlets saycareless about honesty. I am not a natural-born diplomat.
Oh yes, I remember situations where your insistence on facts instead of opportunities ended working relationships adds Khaled with a smile.
I am also a very loyal person; loyalty to my family, my country, His Majesty, my university, etc.
and therefore people like and respect you; you are always a reliable person, 100% of the time. adds Khaled.
Hospitality is a very normal value in Arabic societies; but in Europe this is less important, and you tend to find it mainly among families from abroad. Europeans consider inviting friends over from time to time and offering some food and drinks is hospitality. They are surprised to see how far our definition of hospitality goes. I remember when one of my student colleagues had to leave her flat and could not find a new one, I was the only friend who offered her a place to live as long as needed, despite the tiny size of my apt. In the end, she offered to share the costs and the rent, but I refused. I think she was very surprised. In our culture this is normal, but for Europeans its not.
What is my mission? What is the meaning of my life?

My mission is to help people grow personally. My mission is also implementing a modern, globally competitive Oman, while respecting traditional, Islamic values.
What is the vision of myself as a person? Who, what and how I want to be in the future?
Not so easy to answer. Before I die I want to be able to look back at my life and know that it had real meaning, and was challenging and full of both private and professional achievements. My vision is to be a role-model for Omani women and encourage them to combine a fulfilled private life and a successful career at the same time.

My goals up until now have been to encourage women to pursue higher education and to make my students fit for professional life, not only in terms of knowledge, but also personally. I have to admit that psychology is also my passion, just after marketing and management.
What strategies have I deployed to attain these objectives?

I regularly visit girls high schools and colleges and I motivate them to study, to start a professional career and not to marry too early. At university I have created a circle for female students where they practice self-help and if theyre unable to find a solution they usually come to me for advice. I have also introduced student coaching sessions and regular meetings with professional coaches for both male and female students. But this only relates to what I have done thus far. I have no clue about my vision, goals and strategies as they relate to the future. Will this hamper the process?
Khaled responds, Dont worry, Samira, thats why were here to analyze and think about the future together. Lets consider some crucial questions. What are my weaknesses?
Samira lists the following: - I can be very stubborn and un-diplomatic. When I think I am right, I feel compelled to defend my position. Sometimes I find myself at odds with social currents, and this has already created some problems in the past. I definitely know of a few people who dont want to work with me anymore. - I am not always fair with people. I expect that Europeans be more open to our Arabic values, and I upset my family with my European mindset. - Living and reconciling the European and the Arabic value sets is difficult, there are often misunderstandings and conflicts. - I demand understanding from others concerning my lifestyle, but I have to admit that I am not so tolerant towards other peoples conservative lifestyles. - I am impatient with people who are a bit slow in the uptake. - And my family would say that I am selfish.
What are my strengths?

Maybe you can list my strengths, Khaled.
No, no this is a self-analysis and I only intervene when questions are not answered sufficiently. Khaled remarks.
Ok, well, Ill try. - I am very goal-oriented and I follow my goals and strategies no matter what the difficulty. - I can bring people together in a synergistic way. - I love to achieve things which have not yet been realized by women in Oman. - I am a role model for Omani women and I enjoy this role. - I am a very modern Omani wife and mother. - I am optimistic and I like to laugh and make others laugh. - I am very close to nature and I need nature to rejuvenate myself and to feel a spiritual connection. - I promote ecological consciousness and behaviour at home and at work.
Its not easy to answer all these very personal questions. remarks Samira to Khaled. He glances at the answers and thinks that the analysis was good, albeit a bit too focused on Samiras professional life. Since this is the area of Samiras life they intend to work on, hes satisfied with her responses. Khaled recommends that she discusses the questions and answers with Ahmad, her husband. Samira is not enthusiastic about that, but she promises to involve Ahmad and to ask his opinion about specific things like her strengths and weaknesses.
JOHNS RESPONSES Who am I?

I am someone who loves to create and preserve things. The older I get, the greater my desire for preservation. However, I have often neglected my family in favor of my career. That has been the case particularly during my first and second marriages. As a father who was often absent, I saw my children grow up from afar. Today, I understand what I missed. Nevertheless, that is all water over the damand we can only change things in the future. I love to meet and mix with different people, particularly those outside the world of finance, for example; artists, philosophers, athletes, clergymen, and those from other cultures. I have several good friends from developing countries, notably in Africa. Their philosophy of life, and their conception of time and priorities are completely different than ours, and this often gives me pause, and makes me think about my own situation more carefully.

I was born in the United States and I come from a good family. My parents had no problem sending me to the best universities in the United States and in Europe (Harvard, Oxford, INSEAD). During my years of studies in England and France, I had discovered a passion for Europe, its culture, its diversity, and its past. After my studies, my decision to stay in Europe and make a career here was very natural. I went from Milan, Paris, and London, with long trips in sub-Saharan Africa, but always in the context of financial services. I am a real veteran of financial services. During this period, I worked as an employee, and then I founded and consequently sold several financial institutions. I had always been impressed by the optimism of my family. My father used to say, If you have the will, you can do anything. Its true, and professionally speaking I have achieved many of my goals, however, my private life is a whole different story.
I have humanist values. For me, humankind and human rights come first. The world of finance takes a distant second. My values are the following; toleranceespecially for those who do not share my opinion; an unshakable confidence in myself, my ideals and my will to act. I never give up. These are the values which define me, and have enriched my life up until today.
What is my mission? What is my reason for living? What is the meaning of my life?
The purpose of my life is to demonstrate that humanity and finance are not irreconcilable, but rather can and should go hand in hand.
What is the vision of myself as a person? Who, what and how I want to be in the future? What is my ideal conception of myself that which I want to become?
My vision is to now apply those values which have made me successful in my professional life to my private life.

My objectives are very clear. I want to progressively disengage from the th world of financemy goal is to have quit completely by my 65 birthday. Id like to construct a new life with Giuliana where we can both thrive and support one another mutually in our chosen areas of inter est and leisure. Id also like our new life to be based upon a true and equal partnership. Do you really mean true partnership? the priest interjects, Giuliana is at the beginning of her career, does that mean she will have to abandon it? John pauses and thinksthen he promises Nomonde to talk about it with Giuliana as soon as possible.
My strategies for exiting the world of finance are very clear. Transfer tasks and skills to younger colleagues, give up numerous honorary posts, as well as positions on the boards of directors which consume a lot of time. With respect to my private life, I havent given much thought to a strategyI would like discuss it with Giuliana.
What are, among my weaknesses, those which are stopping me from deploying my objectives and strategies?
- Most certainly my impatience, especially when things dont go as well as I had anticipated. - Sometimes I dance faster than the music. - I pay too much attention to details. - In my personal life, I have often cheated on my wives. Im not disloyal, but I have often allowed myself to be led into misadventures by the physical or intellectual attraction of other women. I really regret having done so, because each time, I deeply hurt my wife. Nevertheless, there were several romantic affairs which, although not particularly fair to my wife, had a lasting and positive impact on me. Once, I had an affair with a French woman who challenged me intellectually like no one before nor since. Her suggestions led me to question numerous aspects of my life, to see them in a different light, and even to modify them completely.
- My will to succeed and my perseverance are certainly my greatest strengths. - Moreover, my humanist ideals, notably that humankind must come before capital and that finance must serve humankind and not the contrary. - My ability to adapt to various cultural situations, and exploit them for the success of my projects. - Im a decent facilitator and a good mediator when it comes to reconciling various divergent interests. - I love women, but that has often created problems for me. I particularly love women who are passionate for their work, because they tend to be the ones who are not interested in power, but rather the subject or project at hand.
The feedback of Johns friend and coach: In his professional life, John is certainly a successful and mature man, but in his personal life, he lacks concrete ideas, particularly a lack of imagination to envision his life after retirement. The four people who confide in their friends or coaches must now discuss their analyses with their families before the next coaching session. This is important in order to avoid any blind spots.
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR STEP ONE Now that youre familiar with the analyses of Caroline, Martin, Samira, and John, its your turn to do your own diagnostic with the aid of your coach and the questionnaire. For pedagogical reasons, each protagonist had a coach who was present and kept them on subject if they started to stray. If you want to apply this method alone, its altogether possible. First and foremost, try to respond to all the questions. If you hesitate, return to the responses of our four protagonists as well as the comments of their coaches. In certain cases, you can do this exercise with someone in whom you trust and who can help you get past any impasses. For the most part, the difficult questions concern values, strengths, and weaknesses. Therefore, a close friend can help you by complementing your own selfreflection with their own perspective about you. They might say something like, Youre too modest, as far as I know you, sincerity is an important value. Im often asked if it would be possible to do this anal ysis with a spouse or partner. I think its possible, as certain couples complement each other extremely well. So long as they are capable of keeping the emotional and therapeutic distance required for this type of exercise. However, in most cases, it would be difficult because a spouse is too involved and is not capable of objectivity. If there is any tension between you and your partner, I advise you to find a close friend instead. At the end of this stage, when all the questions have been answered sincerely, you have to ask yourself, What is the time horizon of the scenarios? There again, there is no standard answer. It will depend on the conditions of your life and also the pace of change in your life and your environment. To facilitate this particular task, lets return to our four protagonists. With Caroline, there are many things in flux especially in the short-term, such as; the end of her studies, first professional experiences, eventual marriage and starting a family. That is why she chose a time horizon of ten years. Why ten years? With a ten-
year time frame, she can imagine the decisive changes which will likely affect her life. However if she had chosen a shorter time horizon, she risks not anticipating the future far enough ahead and thus neglecting significant changes. With Martin, the time horizon is the subject of intense discussions during one of his coaching sessions. As a man of action who loves to resolve urgent problems right away, he prefers a short time horizon. His coach, however, was able to convince him to use a much longer time horizon in order to effect lasting changes, and to provide a little cognitive distance from his seemingly urgent problems. They ended up compromising with a time horizon of 15 years. The time horizon question surprises Samira, as she wants to change her professional career immediately and she is not prepared to accept a time horizon of 10 years. Khaled has a hard time convincing her that a time horizon of 10 years would give her a greater range of possibilities and allow her to analyze aspects of her life with a longer and broader perspective. At first glance, John considers the question of time horizon to be superfluous because, like many top executives, he believes that he wont live long after the shock of his retirement. Father Nomonde replies that he must do this exercise expressly to avoid such a shock. John gathers up his courage and proposes 10 years as a time frame. Why ten years? asks Father Nomonde. If I survive my retirement, I will have started a new life with Giuliana. Ten years from now she will be 45 years old and she might be ready to give up her business ambitions.
Step 2: Influence Analysis
Remember, nothing is constant except change. Buddha.
The goal of this step is to examine the context of the persons current situation and to determine who and what holds influence over that person. When analyzing your external situation, its important to identify those areas and factors which have an effect on you. If we take the example of a company, its obvious that there are multiple external factors in play such as; clients, competitors, suppliers, the economy, technology, society and legislation. Its important to list these factors and determine the relationships amongst them. In this respect, its important to discover the driving and driven forces. In a football game, the playmaker decides if the play will be offensive or defensive. Once we have identified the playmaker in any given environment, we can leverage his strategy to our own benefit. Lets go back to the examples of Caroline, Martin, Samira, and John in order to distinguish the various influence areas. The four protagonists, although they are in very different stages of their lives, have many points in common. Their influence areas are:
A: Private life B: Professional life (University or Company)
THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 57 C: Sector of Activity D: Society E: Economy F: Technology G: Politics
THE METHODOLOGICAL PROCESS The influence factors must be defined for each influence area. That means: What holds sway over that person today? When these factors are numerous, we can rank them according to their order of importance, however the ranking is optional. Carolines Influence Analysis
Influence Area A: Private Life
My parents and the pressure they exert over my life, particularly to finish my studies. My older brother who had finished his studies in physics, and who has a super job in the development department of a large aeronautics firm in France. That is my model. My friend, a college buddy, who was a year ahead of me in school, and is now studying in the United States. Hes trying to convince me to join him in the United States, but Im not sure.
Influence Area B: Professional Life (University)

The demands at university, such as; exams, and papers. Student activities such as; - Social and ecological activism. - Finding a job during summer vacation. - Organization of conferences at University (these conferences are organized entirely by students, and require a lot of work and preparation everything from marketing the conference, managing the participants, making sure that the event is secure, providing drinks during breaks, looking for sponsors, etc.)
Influence Area C: Sector of Activity

The perfume and cosmetics industry, particularly at the international level. Also, ecology, particularly services oriented toward the environment.
Influence Area D: Society

Demands of society on young people, particularly financing the older generations retirement. The fact that we are economically active and must ensure the growth of the economy. Various communal values such as being a good citizen and a good European versus being selfishly concerned with ones own car eer.
Influence Area E: Economy

Economic fluctuations in France and in Europe. The labor market evolution in Europe, and eventually in the United States and Asia.
Since Caroline still doesnt know in which sector shell be working, other influence areas such as technology, politics, and legislation are not terribly important at the moment. Martins Influence Analysis
My wife, my children and the demands on me as a husband and father without forgetting my dog, who expects frequent walks with his master. My parents and in-laws who demand more and more support from me and complain that Im not always available. My friends who would like to spend more time with me and Im often unable to do so.
Influence Area B: Professional Life

Executive management demands high performance and innovation, and is used to getting them. Nevertheless, they have offered me little help in this uncertain period. News coming from top management is rather sparse, and generates more speculation than clarity. My staff harasses me endlessly because they too are afraid of losing their jobs. Im really between a rock and a hard place.

In my sector of activity there are; massive offshoring, liquidation of companies, and mergers. Having said that, I realize that I should perhaps better define the term sector. Actually, if I consider the sector as a whole, many of my clients, suppliers and commercial partners are doing quite well.

Societal influence is not so easy to define. Someone in my position is simply expected to behave a certain way. The expectations of our bourgeois Bavarian community, who are keen on maintaining conformity to community norms.

Economic fluctuations in Germany and in Europe. Economic fluctuations in my industry at large. Trends in terms of offshoring in Europe and around the world.

Globalization with all of its positive and negative effects.
Influence Area F: Technology

Trends in pre-fabrication and miniaturization of materials, instead of the usual technologies and heavy equipment. Accelerating innovation cycles in mechanical engineering. The automation of technology, particularly technologies of substitution.
Influence Area G: Politics

Legislation pertaining to offshoring (laws about the environment, salaries, etc.) Technical standards, such as ISO, etc. Anti-trust law Product liability
The farther Martin strays from his private life, the more he feels at ease with the influence analysis. Once again, that reveals the disproportionate weight of his professional life, as his coach has rightly pointed out. Samiras Influence Analysis
My husband and my children, my parents, my brothers and sisters and their demands on me. Each one has their expectations about how I should behave. My extended family such as my in-laws, aunts and uncles, cousins and so on. Large Arab families tend to have traditional values and theyre often imposing. My friends in Oman, Middle East and in Europe. Omanis tend to think Im very European and they dont distinguish among the various European countries, and likewise my European friends find me very Arabic and they dont distinguish among the various Arab cultures.

The university with its courses, colleagues, students, lecturing and extracurricular activities such as organizing social events. My competitors at the university. Some of my colleagues think that my lectures are their job. There is a lot of jealousy, because I create new methods, new coaching approaches and they try to undermine that.

Other universities in the Gulf region, North Africa and even Europe. Research and teaching opportunities abroad. Business activities in Oman and the Gulf region.

Elite labor market in Oman and the Gulf region.
Influence Area D: Society and Political Development in the Gulf Region

Stable political development in Oman. Stable political development in the UAE. Concerns about terror attacks in Saudi Arabia which might spill over into the rest of the Arabic peninsula.

Steady growth in Oman. Public transportation infrastructure is insufficient. Trend from industrial to service activities in Oman.
Thats not so bad. remarks Khaled, her coach. Johns Influence Analysis
My wife and her career opportunities outside of Great Britain. Her demands with respect to our life together; traveling, visiting museums and concerts. My children who expect very little from mewhich troubles me. My friends who are scattered across several continents and complain that we see each other too seldom.

The big projecta concept for a financial monitoring system. Daily affairs and administrative tasks which demand more and more of my time. The merger with another bank also absorbs a good part of my energy.

My associations and professional clubs who demand not only my facilitation skills, but also new ideas. My new institute for young executive financial managers, which demands organizing conferences and seminars. International meetings, symposia, and other initiatives which require a lot of travel.

England is still a country where social class plays an important role. People expect certain commitments from those who occupy positions of power, such as showing up to certain events. My wifes absence is embarrassing when I have to go to these events. Giving receptions at our houseas expected from our social clubs

Economic conditions in Europe and the United States. The rate of institutional and private investment. Globalization and offshoring around the world.
Influence Area F: Technology

Everything related to information technology in the domain of finance. Emerging technologies having a long-term impact on banking.
Influence Area G: Politics

European legislation in the domain of finance and banking, which represents a huge number of directives. Management of Third World debt (forgiving debt, new models, etc.) The GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) and other rules about commerce and international trade
Thats a wrap. Father Nomonde has nothing to add. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR STEP TWO Here, its important to consider the influence of external actors upon you. What does that mean? You must ask yourself the following question: Who or what in my environment influences me? The question is not, How do I influence those in my environment? Concerning private and professional life, its relatively simple to determine various factors. It becomes more difficult when it concerns the economy, technology, and politics. Intense research is often required to avoid erroneous factors. Given the following question; what is the driving force or playmaker? We can derive numerous systemic analyses, particularly for companies. In the case of an individual, its enough to ask; what is the domain which holds the most sway over others? In general, it will be quite clear that private life is not the driving force. Rather, domains such as the economy, technology, and society will likely be driving forces.
Step 3: Projections
It is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong Lee Iacocca
The goal of this step is to create several hypotheses (alternatives) concerning the future and then confront them with courage. After having gone through the first two steps concerning the present, we now arrive at the passionate part of the exercise where our protagonists test-run possible alternative futures. For many, that may seem unsatisfying, because they would rather know exactly how their future will unfold. Nevertheless, projecting a single forecast rather than alternatives is unreasonable and fatalistic. Now you need to let yourself be guided by curiosity and be openminded in order to discover the possibilities which the future may hold for you. Though it may be uncomfortable, its important not to limit yourself to desirable futures. You must also consider negative and unexpected outcomes. A company should, for example, not only imagine that its market could grow, but that it could also shrink or completely disappear. For example, the automobile financing and car insurance businesses have been seized by car manufacturers who bundle these services with the sales of new cars at the expense of the
former. The function still exists, but more and more banks and insurance companies are abandoning these services. Those who wish to develop their professional future mustnt uniquely envision their next career move, but rather what might happen if they lose their job. That doesnt mean that we must always imagine the worst, but simply that we must consider all possibilities. Once we view all the possible evolutions of the environment as alternatives, we are capable of managing them. If, on the contrary, we exclude disagreeable alternatives, we are not in a position to master them. Here is a simple illustration of this rule. If we have to pass an exam, and we approach it assuming that its going to be difficult, then we will study hard. When we take the exam, well do well no matter if its difficult or not. If on the other hand, we assume that the exam is going to be easy and we dont study, then we may fail if the exam is difficult. The same goes for our alternatives. We do ourselves a disservice by not imagining difficult or disagreeable alternatives before they may appear. Should they arrive, well be able to confront them and create appropriate counter-measures. Its important to think about the future as alternatives, and dont forget undesirable alternatives. Be brave when faced with entirely new situations, and be brave when facing your future. CONDITIONS FOR CREATING POWERFUL ALTERNATIVES First of all, the driving factors from step two must be reformulated as neutral descriptors. A neutral descriptor is an influence factor which can encapsulate multiple sub-factors. The descriptors must be formulated in a neutral way because only a neutral formulation guarantees an open process. In the domain of projections, you must cast wide in order to capture the entire range of possibilities. Dont be timid, otherwise youll miss the mark and youll just be wasting your time. When we consider alternatives, its important that they be sound and logical. Lets return to Caroline, Martin, Samira, and John who will help us find our own path. We are going to ask each of our four
protagonists to describe their projections and then we will attempt to create summaries for each one. For the sake of brevity, were not going to project all the influence factors into the future. CAROLINES PROJECTIONS
Influence Area Descriptor Projection A in 10 years Reasons for projection A Private Life Family development A: a tight-knit family. A: traditional Mediterranean family solidarity; everyone takes care of everyonebut at the price of meddling in others affairs, and plenty of unsolicited advice. B: postmodern family. Everyone takes care of oneself and is motivated by individual interests. B: the younger generation is dispersed around the world for professional reasons. Family cohesion is lost because each one seeks to thrive without the constraints of family obligations. My private life (friends, close family) A: lost touch with those close to me. A: The time has not yet arrived for creating a stable family situation. Profession and career are priorities. B: Creating a stable family situation B: An adequate partner has been found, compatibility with career established or heading in the right direction. Professional Environment University life development A: interesting career opportunities at University A: Reforms have taken place, smooth transition between University and first job. Interesting assignments and projects at
Projection B in 10 years
Reasons for projection B
Descriptor Projection A in 10 years Reasons for projection A
Projection B in 10 years Reasons for projection B
Influence Area Descriptor Projection A in 10 years Reasons for projection A
THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 65 university. B: Few changes at University. B: The reforms have been insufficient or ineffective due to bureaucratic obstacles. Sector of Activity Development of corporate structures. A: Global players dominate the market. A: Financial prowess counts more than innovation, and markets can be bought B: Virtual and flexible networks are dominant B: innovation, rapid and permanent changes can only be managed by flexible networks.
MARTINS PROJECTIONS
Influence Area Descriptor Projection A in 15 years Private Life Family development (my wife, my children) A: The family still exists but the children have grown up and left home A: Family cohesion mutually maintained by all the members of the family; no major conflicts or grudges. B: The family falls apart, each one follows his own path, and finds a new partner. B: Crises cannot be resolved, external and internal stress is too great, economic problems such as unemployment, and poor economic conditions are aggravating factors. My greater private life (friends, parents, and relatives) A: family is mutually supportive. A: After several long years, we
Reasons for projection A
66 / THERE IS ALWAYS AN ALTERNATIVE realize the importance of family and friends. Family and friends offer new stimulation and support. Projection B in 15 years B: Lose touch with old friends and family. Seek and make new friends. B: friends and family are treated according to their utility vis-a-vis professional projects. Professional Environment The development of my company A: the crisis has been resolved. The company has found a reliable and solvent partner. A: The attractiveness of the company has convinced a good investor to support the enterprise, encourage innovation and investment. B: My company no longer exists. B: Despite all the effort, my company has not found a good investor. The most profitable parts of the company are auctioned off. The enterprise along with its markets disappear, as was the case with several famous German companies; Triumph, Adler, and AEG. (Martin has to hold back the emotion) Sector of Activity European competitiveness vis--vis cheaper labor markets. A: A return to Europe. A: Europe increases its competitiveness due to business legislation which favors entrepreneurship. B: New worldwide markets. B: Asia, Middle East and Latin America have developed economically and have become the most attractive offshore labor markets for investors around the world (high-growth markets, cheap and highly qualified labor)
Influence Area Descriptor Projection A in 15 years
Projection B in 15 years Reasons for protection B
THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 67 Influence Area Descriptor Projection A in 15 years Reasons for projection A Society Evolution of local community influence A: the local community is crucial for social life. A: Our engagement vis--vis the local community is dictated by the social environment; the community expects that community members engage voluntarily. B: social life is dominated by a virtual community. B: social networks at the local level are completely dissolved; we live and communicate with others from around the world with whom we share virtual interests and values; physical proximity is no longer an issue. Economy Economic Evolution in Europe A: favorable economic conditions. A: The economy takes off following radical reforms in legislation favoring business and young people become self-reliant and entrepreneurial. B: unfavorable economic conditions. B: The European economy is seriously threatened by the Asians (China and India) Evolution of the mechanical engineering sector. A: The mechanical engineering sector, in the classical sense of the word, no longer exists. A: Automation has replaced traditional mechanical engineering. B: Theres a boom in mechanical engineering due to new technologies. B: Mechanical engineering is successfully restructured; massive investments in innovation.
Descriptor Projection A in 15 years
Reasons for projection A Projection B in 15 years
68 / THERE IS ALWAYS AN ALTERNATIVE Influence Area Descriptor Projection A in 15 years Reasons for projection A Technology New technologies in the sector of mechanical engineering A: optimization and miniaturization of existing technologies. A: No quantum leap in innovation; investment, research and development are channeled towards other key sectors B: revolutionary new technologies, such as biochips. B: The merging of hardware and software. New biotechnologies penetrates many sectors such as communication, IT and mechanical engineering.
SAMIRAS PROJECTIONS
Influence Area Descriptor Projection A Reason for projection A Private Life Development of my family. A: Back to traditional values and structures. A: Westernization is refused, because it undermines our strengths and traditional values like family. Back to the roots movement in society. B: A modern family. B: Higher education for all, studying and travelling abroad shapes a more modern, Western lifestyle model. It is normal that women pursue higher education and careers while raising children. Development of my friendship network. A: All cultures mingle. A: Less conflicts between East, West and Arab world. The new American president has successfully settled peace in Middle East. Terrorism peters out; Arabs are respected in the World.
Projection B Reasons for projection B
Descriptor Projection A Reasons for the projection A
THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 69 Cultural diversity is an objective. B: Network split in regional groups. B: Increased cultural and political conflicts including more terrorist attacks all over the world. Mistrust is growing between the different cultures. Instead of global networks there are mainly regional networks, based on cultural and ethnic values. Professional Environment Omani university development. A: Innovative developments. A: New courses and teaching methods integrated due to close collaboration with an international university network; blended and integrated e-learning. B: More traditional B: No entrepreneurial spirit and trust in new methods; back to traditional teaching and values; complacency prevails over experimentation Extended Professional Environment Elite labor market in the Gulf A: Economic boom increases the demand for a high-performance workforce A: Stable political development; wise leaders in the Gulf countries create more trust in the region which becomes the new business hub between Europe and Asia; most global players have transferred their headquarters to the Gulf region B: Declining markets for highperformance workforce in the Gulf region B: The gap between Middle East and the rest of the world widens; loss of confidence in the Arab world due to increasing conflicts. Asia and the Occident share economic
Influence Area Descriptor Projection A Reasons for the projection A
Influence Area Descriptor Projection A
Reasons for the projection A
Projection B
70 / THERE IS ALWAYS AN ALTERNATIVE world power. Economy Development of the Omani economy. A: Mainly Gas and Petroleumbased economy A: Oil exploration decreases as gas exploration increases; most of the GDP is energy related. B: The service economy surges ahead B: Energy resources (oil and gas) decrease and Oman develops a tourist industry and competitive IT service sector Politics Political development in Oman and the Middle East A: Stable political development A: The Omani government continues the political drive towards sustainable economic and political development. The politics of the past pay large dividends; Oman is gaining in international competitiveness and respect. Smooth political development in Middle East and economic boom in the UAE. B: Unstable political development B: Unrest in the Middle East; terrorism spills over the Arab peninsula and shakes established governments. Middle East looses its position as business hub between Europe and Asia. Shift of political and economic power to Far East.
That was not an easy exercise remarks Samira. For me it was very difficult to imagine social unrest and economic decline in our country, but youre right, in a real Foresight exercise we shouldnt exclude anything. Nevertheless it pains me to consider the alternative where our country may be in political turmoil.
JOHNS PROJECTIONS
Influence Area Descriptor Projection A in 10 years Reasons for projection A Private Life My partner and her career ambitions A: Giuliana manages a successful company in Italy. A: Strong will to succeed, excellent understanding of the market, and good business contacts in Italy, support from the family. B: Giuliana has retired and has decided to enjoy life (travel, concerts, museums, ) B: The great distances between the house in London and the business in Italy become tiresome and she gives up her business ambitions. My children and their relationships with me. A: Business as usual: the children feel no need to contact me. A: Their individual interests are priorities, and they have no feelings towards their father. B: Family life takes a new turn. B: The children want to understand their roots. The grandchildren eventually want to know their grandfather. They do a genealogy tree, as is currently the rage in the United States. Professional Environment International professional associations A: Uniquely virtual contacts A: Business associations offer little to retired people. The demands of the marketplace require a continuous stream of new contacts; experience counts less. B: The need for close business contacts which require a large time investment to maintain.
72 / THERE IS ALWAYS AN ALTERNATIVE Reasons for projection B B: International and business experience in the sector are appreciated seniors mentor the less-experienced. Institute for Management and Finance for financial executives. Online training A: Technical knowledge and information is stored, combined and distributed much more easily on virtual platforms, updated and distributed by powerful new information technology. B: Traditional organization, similar to an MBA, but more global and modern. B: Few fundamental changes in the domain; institutions and employers rely upon methods which have stood the test of time, only with new content. Economy Economic models A: Capitalism and free markets are widely recognized to be the most efficient economic model. A: Profits and personal success motivate many to become rich, even in the developing countries. Those who invest themselves are able to achieve a good quality of life; and despite its abuses, capitalism seems to be the best economic model. B: New models such as fair trade, and sustainable development have been implemented. B: Globalization and capitalism have continued to destroy nature and further impoverish the poor. Thus, throughout the world, public initiatives which seek more sustainable models have been implemented, initially in pilot projects and than later on a global scale.
Influence Area Descriptor Projection A in 10 years
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR STEP THREE One gets the impression from the projections cited above in step three that this step is relatively easy. Dont be fooledthis is an essential step that requires your full and undivided attention. Furthermore, I would like to draw your attention to the following common traps. Insufficient preparation. During the elaboration of future alternatives, particularly those pertaining to the economic, technological, political, and social domains, I highly recommend that you think carefully and write (or type) your responses. Otherwise, you run the risk of creating projections or alternative futures much too general and superficial. Thankfully, with the resources available to you today on the Internet, your task is not as difficult as it would seem. Good preparation is essential to succeed with this method. Too little contrast among alternatives. For example, strong growth, weak growth is not really two alternatives, but rather variations on growth. In both cases, one presupposes that growth will occur. Therefore, better alternatives would be growth or depression as these are more contrasted than the previous set of alternatives. The reasons for the projections are in the form of descriptions of future situations, rather than clear affirmations justifying why one or another of the alternatives is logically to happen. In this case, you must ask yourself the question: What are the elements which lead to such a future alternative? Responding with consequences of future alternatives, rather than reasons or justifications. In this case, its particularly useful to ask yourself: What could lead to such or such future situation? What are the factors which actively contribute to this future situation? Another classic error is failing to provide sufficient cognitive distance between your current situation, or simply extrapolating your current situation into the future. In this case, you need to constantly remind yourself of those changes which will be imaginable in 10 or more years. If you lack
imagination, you can call upon the past (retrospective), which consists of back-tracking the same amount of time you intend to project. Having done so, we quickly realize how completely different things really are todaywhich is just as true in private life as it is in professional life. Furthermore, you cant help but notice the marked difference between the political, technical, and social domains of today, and those reigning a decade ago. The omnipresence of the Internet and mobile communications, the rise of China, the absence of indiscriminate terrorall of these things should serve to remind you what could happen in a relatively short period of time. With hindsight, we dont usually find these changes particularly dramatic, but anticipating them in advance could be very useful to you both professionally and personally. To summarize, we could say that projections must be based upon sound data and good preparation. If you are unable to find sufficient information, you must compensate by using your creativity and imagination. The first exercise consists of applying your creativity in order to understand how to think about new and unexpected outcomes, not about yourself, but about your environment. Starting with your environment is much easier than starting with yourself. Im sure youve all found yourself in a position to offer sound advice to friends who were simply incapable of solving their own problems.
Step 4: Consistency Analysis
The master archer cant always strike the center of his target. Seneca.
After having envisioned and expressed the changes in the form of contrasting alternatives which might happen in your environment, you need to group them in order to script consistent and logical scenarios. The scenarios must be both consistent and free of contradictions. If a scenario is inconsistent or contains contradictions, they wont be taken seriously nor will they allow readers to anticipate the consequences therein. On the other hand, if the scenarios are intrinsically logical, even if they include some aspects which might seem threatening, they will be taken seriously by the protagonists (readers) and they will make an effort to modify their behavior accordingly. This stage includes numerous analytical and logical aspects, and therefore you should try to avoid falling into the trap of black/white or optimist/pessimist. Make an effort to constrain yourself to rigorous logic. Obviously there are many possible coherent sets, and the following sets are not the only possible logical combinations. The tables below simply represent the most coherent and logical sets according to our protagonists.
To better understand the above data, lets examine the scenarios table from the world of finance. Given the following qualities; high-growth economy, liberalization of the banking sector, and strong competition from nonfinancial institutions (due to liberalization), we can see that from a banks perspective, this scenario includes several positive and negative aspects, and is both very logical and consistent. Lets take a look at the following set of alternatives for Caroline, Martin, Samira, and John in a condensed form in order to simplify the process. CAROLINES SET OF ALTERNATIVES
Influence Area Economy Descriptor Evolution of European market Scenario A Economy migrates towards Eastern Europe and outside of Europe. Global Players Scenario B Multiple centers of economic activity dispersed throughout the world. Flexible virtual networks Few interesting career opportunities at University New possibilities for employment (start-up, freelance work, etc.) Postmodern family (highly individualist) Poor relationships without any real engagement
Professional Environment
Evolution of corporate structures University life development
European labor market evolution
Interesting career opportunities at University Jobs lost in the European Union, jobs move to China and India More family cohesion Creating a close-knit family
Private Life
My family (mom, dad, siblings, etc.) My friends and my future family (husband, children, inlaws, etc.)
That which seems rather simple at first glance, in reality requires some serious thought. Its important to set aside your illusory desires when making combinatorial choices, and to choose to group only those factors which are logically consistent. Here, Caroline ran into some difficulties and her friend had to help her several times. Finally, however, the outlines of two scenarios emerged, and are represented by the following table. MARTINS SET OF ALTERNATIVES
Influence Area Economy Descriptor Economic evolution in Europe Market evolution of the mechanical engineering sector Site attractivity Scenario A Economic growth in Europe The mechanical engineering sector no longer exists Scenario B Economic stagnation in Europe The mechanical engineering sector is once again competitive New markets throughout the world Optimization and miniaturization Local community determines social life A new partner breaths new life into the company The family falls apart
Sector of Activity Technology
Return to Europe Revolutionary new technologies Virtual community determines social life My company no longer exists
Society
Technologies in mechanical engineering Influence of the local community Evolution of my company
Professional Life
Private Life
Family dynamics
The family still exists, but the children have all left home
This step had not been easy for Martin, particularly facing some of the negative alternatives such as, the family falls apart, and my company no longer exists. Despite the fact that facing these negative alternatives had been emotionally draining for Martin,
his coach never abandoned him. Martins coach explained to him that he would be in a much better position to lead his life if he were to confront (virtually) these rather disagreeable events, rather than ignoring them, and then ultimately being taken by surprise if they were to occur. Even if these negative events dont occur, it is nevertheless very useful to envision them, because in everyones life there are surprises and painful situations. If we already know what were going to do in the event that something unpleasant happens (by systematically considering them with a cool head) then well be in a much better position to overcome those possible future hardships should they occur. SAMIRAS SET OF ALTERNATIVES
Influence Area Private Environment Descriptor Development of my family Development of my friendship network Professional environment Extended professional environment Economy Omani university development High potential labor market in the Gulf Development of the Omani economy Political development in Oman and Middle East Scenario A Back to traditional values Split of the network in regional groups More traditional Declining market Mainly Oil and Gas based Unstable Scenario B Modern family
All cultures mingle
Innovative developments High need for high potentials due to boom Mainly service based Stable
Politics
Samira liked this exercise, because it stimulated her logical thinking. She had to admit that it was not easy to consider gloomy alternatives like an unstable political development in the Middle East and a return to traditional values. But she understood and accepted the method and said, It is certainly useful to learn how to deal with unpleasant or even threatening alternatives right now before they might happen.
JOHNS SET OF ALTERNATIVES

Influence Area Economy Descriptor Economic evolution in Europe Scenario A Europe looses ground to a growing China and India Scenario B Europe regains some ground thanks to radical reforms and its spirit of enterprise The USA consolidates its economic power due to political reforms and its spirit of enterprise Many conacts that demand a lot of time MBA-like institute She retires from business Indifference
Economic evolution in the United States
The USA looses ground as economic power migrates to Asia Virtual reality dominates Virtual institute
Professional Life
Professional associations Institute for Finance and Management My partner
Private Life
My children
She establishes her life in Italy Family turns a new leaf
John also had a difficult time grouping the alternatives. From time to time, John fell into the black/white trap, and his friend, Nomonde, had to interrupt him in order to keep him on track with the method. You should be careful not to allow your personal preferences to get in the way, but rather simply follow a consistent logic according to the rules described above. If we maintain a certain neutrality, as difficult as that may be sometimes, we realize that certain combinations are simply more rational than others.
Step 5: Scenario Interpretation
Wisdom means having sufficiently large dreams so as to never lose sight of them during the pursuit of their realization Oscar Wilde
The following step involves interpreting the scenarios, and it is much more interesting and playful than some of the previous steps. Given the logical set of elements for each scenario, we flesh-out a narrative which is not only logical, but also fascinating and passionate. The goal of the scenarios is to transport the reader into several distinct possible future worlds. Moreover, individuals or groups which embark upon an excursion into the future must not only understand the scenarios from a rational and intellectual point of view, but also be able to intuitively live and feel the changes. To this end, I encourage you to use every narrative technique at your disposal to stimulate the imagination of your reader. Dont hesitate to work with pictures clipped from magazines, collages, sketches, and/or pantomimes. The most important thing is that our protagonists (quite possibly you) enter into the world of the scenario in order to be sufficiently prepared for the forthcoming steps.
How do we know when a group is truly absorbed in a scenario? We know when the groups behavior mirrors the narrative. I remember once facilitating a group in which there was a scenario called, Fortress Europe. Fortress Europe described a world in which the European Union recoiled with a series of antiimmigration and protectionist policies. The group, composed of Europeans, behaved as if they were living in that scenariono one from the other groups were allowed to penetrate their inner circle, nor did anyone from that group interact with anyone from any other group. Another group whose scenario described globalization carried on in English and gave themselves international (Chinese, Indian, Russian, European, and American) nicknames. When a scenario elicits this type of reaction, I know that the participants are feeling it to the core of their being. In our case, using scenarios to the aid of individuals, its important that the scenarios correspond to the individuals particular environment, even if doing so disturbs a few of them. Lets examine our four examples more closely. CAROLINES SCENARIOS Caroline decided to describe her scenarios in the form of a day in the life of her coach, Marie. This is a playful approach which also serves to stimulate the imagination. Scenario A: The Asian Era Has Begun
Marie is awoken by her palm pilot which also automatically starts the espresso machine. Despite the fact that her stressful job as director of development at Arme (an international biotech firm in Calcutta) demands much from her, she greets every day full of enthusiasm for the challenges which await her. A video conference is on the agenda today during which several new innovative products will have to be approved for the following season. Last night, with the help of the PDA integrated into her stylish watch, Marie made a last-minute review of the various decision factors for todays upcoming video conference. After doing a quick physiological analysis of her body with the aid of a home laboratory, and taking into account the days activities, a customized power fitness cocktail is mixed with the appropriate amount of vitamins and nutrients. Maries computer calls her softly, and she gazes over at the screen. There she sees a preliminary list of potential objections to the propositions she will be making at todays videoconference. Marie quickly completes the list via voice interface, and downloads the data to her watch/PDA.

Suddenly, a message flashes and a connection is established to Kiev where her sister Michle works as a security engineer at a Ukrainian power station. Do you know that dad is supposed to undergo brain -cell transplantation to treat his Alzheimers? Do you trust the doctors? I tend to think these new medical technologies are likely to do more good than harm, so, youve got a green light from meso long as the best medical specialist in brain-cell transplantation leads the operation either on-site or remotely. And besides dad, how are you doing little sister? Hows your love life? Well, my virtual love affair with Dan in Canada is going very well. We met six months ago during a virtual conference where we really hit it offI would even say love at first sight. We chat every night, and we even tried virtual lovemaking, which makes up for the long-distance. Were very close and mutually supportive. It seems our love is growing because we share a lot, and have the same philosophy on life. I was completely lost when we finally met face-to-faceyou cant imagine how clumsy we were when we actually started kissing for real. Anyway, the virtual relationship is very satisfying for the moment. How are things in Kiev? Things are booming hereyou cant possibly compare it to old Europe. Were convinced that in a year all of Western Europe will be 50% dependent upon Ukrainian energy. The thought of being dependent upon Ukrainian energy is a little unsettling. I mean, despite the fact that Ukraine is a democratic country, the political situation is not very stable. Not anymore. W ere young, dynamic, and eager to succeed. Im convinced that if we mobilize all of our energies here in Ukraine, will reach our economic objectives. Besides, borders exist only on maps and in your imagination. Everyone knows whats going to happenthe dynamic Eastern Europeans are going to economically outpace our cousins in Western Europe, who are complacent and sentimental about their glorious past. As for love, Im rather old-fashioned. I have a real relationship with the charming young Chinese engineer who works at the power plant. Very good. Well, I wish you both a smooth cultural adjustment and hope that you have few problems as a couple. Before I let you go though, I just have one thing to add regarding your euphoria for Eastern Europe. The growth you described aint nothing compared to whats going on here in Asia. Despite the economic dynamism of Eastern Europe; India, China, and Southeast Asia are going to pass you up quicker than you could possibly imagine. They dont call st the 21 century the Asian century for nothing. Anyway, be well, and dont forget to give me the access code to the surgery room where Dad is going to be operated so that I can follow everything live as it takes place. After hanging up, Marie once again focuses on her work. Her company is one of the global leaders in the biotech sector and has its headquarters in India. Its there that many of the most important and brilliant innovations in biotech are introduced to the world at large. Marie consults her list of principal biotech competitors and notices that there are no European companies on the list. Its a shame really. Im afraid the European politics of isolationism and arrogance has not served its citizens very well. The Asians, on the other hand, are not wasting any time catching up economically. Hopefully the Europeans will wake up

before its too late. One of the participants at the conference is a n Italian University specializing in the development of exotic perfumes and synthetic flavorings. Academia seems to be one thing that functions well in old Europe. While European companies are relocating abroad, European universities continue to improve their attractiveness, due to state-of-the-art research and development, education reform, and the cooperation among European academic institutions. There were some social advantages to the economic crisis which seized Europe. For example, Marie observed some behavioral changes among her own family members. For the first time in a long time, people began to care for their neighbors and for the less fortunate. Furthermore, social solidarity and family cohesion have never been better. The obsolete and bankrupt social systems of old Europe no longer function. Europeans are beginning to wean themselves off State dependency, and learning to be self-reliant once again. All of this has had a salutary effect on family cohesion, as those in financial difficulty must turn to their families for help. In fact, Maries parents let two of her cousins stay with them. In exchange, her cousins set about fixing up the house, renovating the garden, and looking after her younger siblings, until they were able to find a stable situation and move out. Elderly people are no longer housed in luxurious retirement homes, with the exception of a few wealthy families. Most seniors, like Maries grandparents, stay with their grown children, and homes are found for those who do not have family. Elderly people continue to contribute productively so long as they are capable, and are then looked after by their family. This new situation is not without its conflicts. This newfound proximity is not always welcome; there are tensions between old and young, and family members tend to meddle in each others affairs. Family counseling, however, is a booming business as her brother correctly points out. Besides family solidarity, solidarity among friends also develops. Everyone supports each other mutually in good and bad times. Friends and family are now a sanctuary from the harsh economic realities. Communal living arrangements and boarders are common. Single-parent households are often consolidated, but also entire families live in community. Living arrangements develop in response to economic realities the State is bankrupt, so people simply have to look after themselves. In the past, young peoples priority was career first then family (partner, marriage and kids). Today its the reverse. People get married and have children much earlier. Professional life and career are not an end in themselves, but rather a means of making a living. Often, a single job isnt enough to support a family and so people either take another job, or engage in entrepreneurial moonlighting activities. Marie thinks back nostalgically about her native France, and about her friends and family who live there. Her sentimental thoughts overwhelm her and she quickly snaps out of it. Alas, Marie has chosen to live in Asia with all of its economic opportunities, and so she intends to make the best of it, and she heads off to her conference with this conviction in mind.
Scenario B: The Old Continent Awakens

Marie is the director of a virtual company which develops products and services in the biotech sector. She awakens to the cries of vendors at the Barcelona market below her apartment. Marie gets up and walks around to look at Los Ramblas which is bustling with people as far as she can see. Marie was right to stay in Europe, even though she left her native France to move to the dynamic region of Catalonia. One gets the feeling that Europe, after several long years of crisis and agony, has being able to reform its economy and encourage innovation. Europe has once again become attractive to investors from around the world. The entry of several Eastern European countries in the European Union had been a real shot in the arm for old Europe and has stimulated the spirit of innovation and competition. Throughout the European Union, new economic centers have appeared forming a heterogeneous mix of; large and small corporations, startups, and centers of research. Europe has experimented with several new entrepreneurial models, some of which have paid large dividends. Furthermore, in Europe, nature serves as a model for sustainable development for enterprise. In industry, the age of the big dinosaurs has come to an end. Companies which were too big, incapable of adapting rapidly to accelerating economic evolution, or simply unable to pro-act or react, went out of business. Its no longer the case that the big eat the small, but rather the quick beat the slow. Thats the refrain of dynamic and flexible networks composed of independent professionals, teams, and federations. Marie spends her day in meetings with several organizations from the network, partially face-to-face and partially via telecommunications. The University sector has remained relatively conservative. University reform is feared like the devil fears holy water. Universities offer few opportunities for attractive careers. The French perfume and flavorings industry is growing rapidly, thanks to modernization and several new methods adapted from innovations in biotechnology and chemistry. Flavorings for the food industry, as well as all sorts of perfumes and domestic products developed in France are the standard against which all other perfumes and flavorings are measured. At night, Marie meets Pablo, her project-time lover, as they say these days. Marie and Pablo are both very satisfied with their short-term partnership with no strings attached. These days, couples get together for a given period, with a precise objective in mind. For example, couples may pair to create of a business, to launch a project, or raise children. All private relationships are managed like a professional project. Imagination, spontaneity, and intuition seem to have lost their importance. There are no more long-term obligations or engagements, and as a consequence, much less stress in family life. Marie and Pablo are not the only ones to live this way. They defined their relationship for a certain period of time, and then theyll either separate without drama or continue their project together. Older people tend to scorn this new model, but

younger people think that its much more honest than what their parents or grand-parents did, in other words, staying with someone with whom they may not have loved. Everyone is better off defending their own interests, and thats why people take everything which is beneficial to their career, and leave everything which is detrimental to it behind. Everything is possible, and decisions are made to serve a single overriding preoccupation, how to best optimize ones career and success. This new generation calls itself, successoholics. But there is another face to this society. Not everyone has the ego nor the personality to lead a life directed principally towards financial success. Many people drop out, indulge in drugs, commit suicide, or live day-to-day on donations from charitable organizations. Cities are divided between gated communities and ghettos. The gated communities are bastions of wealth and are constantly patrolled by well-armed security. These gated communities are self-sufficient fortressesyou can find everything you need to work, live, love, and die there. Outside the perimeters, in the ghettos, gang warfare and the survival of the strongest reign supreme. Since the State has lost its ability to govern, these neighborhoods have their own laws and justice systems.
MARTINS SCENARIOS Scenario A: High Tech Innovations

After many long years of crisis, Europe has managed to transform its institutions and its laws, reduce its bureaucracy, and once again become an attractive center of industrial activity. European markets are volatile but aggressively growing. Several new entrepreneurial models have been established with the aid of targeted State subsidies. England, France and Germany have set about a course of innovation, and are once again the engine of growth in a unified Europe. Radical fiscal reforms, particularly those relating to social programs and health service have contributed to this new growth. Nevertheless, innovation at every level has not come without a price. Traditional industries, such as construction, chemicals, and automotive have suffered as a consequence. Being unable to adapt to technological changes, many companies have completely disappeared or been bought out by foreign investors, who only keep the choice parts and auction off the rest to global markets. Competition between economic blocs is fierce and takes place on a global scale. Economic zones fight tooth and nail to attract the most innovative and financially powerful companies. These companies prefer sites where the conditions for business are favorable (highly motivated and qualified workforce, subsidies, tax breaks, etc.) Global competition not only allows companies to conquer new markets, but also creates jobs in regions which would otherwise not have them. In mechanical engineering, remarkable revolutionary

technologies have developed according to high global standards, particularly with respect to information technology and mechanical components. Many of these innovations make use of nanotechnology, biochips, and bacteria. German mechanical engineering, once highly productive, lags desperately behind and is no longer in a position to confront international competition. Many companies have disappeared, or their most profitable units have been acquired. Certain markets no longer exist, and in the space of only a few years, no one even remembers the brands from the once powerful German industry. The world has become more and more virtual. Like enterprises before them, communities have become virtual. These communities are composed of people dispersed throughout the world who share the same values, exchange experiences, and despite geographic distances, share many things. Communication amongst these virtual communities is very active and one gets the impression that members of virtual communities communicate more than proximate neighbors. These virtual communities determine social life and dictate what gets done, especially among young people. My family has managed to survive the social upheaval. The children have all left the house, done their studies abroad, and then stayed there to raise their families. My daughter lives with her family in the United States, and my son married a Chinese woman and moved to Malaysia. The house is empty as Isabelle travels more and more frequently for her business.
Scenario B: Eastern Europe and Asia Leap Forward while Old Europe Lags Behind
The original member-States of the European Union lose jobs and attractivity to the profit of newer entrants. European centers of economic development have migrated south and southeast towards Belorussia, Ukraine, the Balkans, and Turkey. These countries offer companies highly qualified and cheap labor, subsidies, tax breaks, and a minimum of bureaucracy. In the former Eastern Bloc countries, the enthusiasm for Europe is palpable, while old Europe flounders in complacency and nostalgia for their grandiose past. Eastern Europe surges ahead towards the future, while Western Europe hasnt even reached the starting line. Economic, technological, and political power have migrated east. China, India, and Southeast Asia have developed numerous economic centers of innovative research, and created more jobs than Europe lost. The Asian century has begun. Numerous Europeans, who are unable to find attractive work in old Europe, emigrate to the Orient seeking economic opportunity. The world economy is dominated by global players. European companies are scarcely represented among the most powerful companies in the world most are Chinese and Indian, and a few are American. These companies have the power and the financial means to develop markets, hire the best researchers,

and purchase the best patents. These companies tend to flout regional and national lawsglobal commerce is the only law that counts. The European economy slides into malaise. After a series of timid reforms, more budget deficits, and unresolved social and demographic problems, the European market takes a dive. The only things to increase are the unemployment figures and the rate of indebtedness. The industries of the future have all moved abroad, where the business conditions, subsidies, and qualified workers are more promising. Only traditional industries have remained in old Europe, especially those which were able to get back on their feet after drastic restructuring. Mechanical engineering in Europe had to overcome a crisis which lasted decades. The firms which have survived are smaller and more flexible, there financing is more solid, and they are clearly oriented towards innovation and satisfying consumer demand. Technology continues its course towards optimization, but offers precious little to the mechanical engineering industry. Nevertheless, demand is satisfied thanks to good after-market services and certain promising innovations. How do people live in this scenario? The trend once again is towards the real, the concrete, and the proximate. Homeland, roots, and origins are important once again, after a period of drowning in the virtual and thus having lost our way. The local community is once again peoples focus. It provides security and a sense of direction. It also determines ones life style and dictates norms and behavior. Regional codes of conduct tacitly determine which families are able to stay, and which families must leave.
SAMIRAS SCENARIOS Samira wants to describe her scenarios as a day of her life ten years later. The following is the result. Scenario A: Back to Roots
Samira wakes up early to the muezzins call to prayer. The whole family gathers for their common morning prayer. She has moved to her hometown and is working there as a professor at a girls college. Her mother has already prepared tea and breakfastthe one Samira prefers. After her morning rituals, she leaves home and heads off towards the girls college in her hometown. Her husband has already left for the day, as he is an early bird. He is travelling a lot in Middle East lately and is seldom at home. Maybe he has another wife, or maybe another family? And if so, what recourse do I have? None, I just have to arrange my life around his schedule. Samira always thought that they would have a more modern and emancipated relationship, but something seems to be wrong between them.

Besides teaching, there are many other tasks which await her such as conflict mediation, particularly within traditional families. Conflicts arise when girls want study or when they refuse to marry someone chosen by their family. This part of her work is the most passionate and Samira often spends days resolving these conflicts. She has always seen herself as someone who can turn conflicts into win-win situations. Traditional values prevail in Oman and the authorities have taken notice of Samiras progressive attitudes. They demand that Samira comply with a stricter interpretation of Sharia law. Samira reads her emails and is shocked to hear from her close friend in England. She tells her that the alumni network has dissolved due to ongoing conflicts between East and West, the Arab and the western world and that the alumni from other non-Western countries are founding their own networks. Samira is deeply saddened. She understands that terrorism has tarnished the reputation of the Arab world and that few in the West want to deal with Arabs anymore. But Omanis share the same values, and we respect the same human rights as Westerners. Samira is shocked and thinks about creating a new university course on human values and human rights. This course should be required curriculum for all schools in the country and throughout the Arabic world. This idea raises her spirits; and she is determined not to give up. She thinks about how much has been achieved and she is convinced that we must continue along a peaceful path. With high spirits she returns home, but the mood there is rather gloomy. Samiras two brothers, both of whom work for a large petroleum company, lost their jobs today. She listens to them and then consoles them remain optimistic. Nevertheless, her brothers are consumed with anger, they can only think about revenge. Samira tries to calm their emotions and recommends that they look for a new job either in government or in industry. She promises to talk to some people in her network provided that they renounce their vengeful ideas. Samira is tired and wants to go to bed when she learns that her father has asked her mother for a divorce. She cant believe it. Her mother explains to Samira that she had no objections sharing her father with a second, younger wife who could help her mother manage the household chores in their large family, but her father had already decided to start a new life. Samira feels helpless and cant interfere in her parents affairs. Traditional culture gives men the right to divorce on any grounds. She retires to her bedroom and switches on the computer for the latest on-line news. What she sees doesnt particularly boost her spirits; more problems and conflicts all over the world and an economic decline in the Gulf region is expected. Samira has had an exhausting day. She switches her mobile phone and computer off and goes straight to bed.
Scenario B: The Middle East is THE Hub for Asian-Western Business

Samira is awoken early by the muezzins call to prayer. She goes to her private fitness room in her house in Muscat where she exercises for 45 minutes according the fitness regime set up by her private sport coach. After a shower and a healthy breakfast prepared according to her computers diagnosis, she rushes off to a multimedia center in Muscat. Here she attends a global conference on economic and social developments with research centers located in the USA, Europe, India and China. This multimedia center provides the latest technologies and all the participants have a lot of fun testing all the possibilities. They can talk to each other via video conference, share documents, and do business as if they were in the same room. The high-tech multimedia center is also equipped with the latest technological gadget, a culture filter, which interprets their answers and body language and retransmits in the appropriate cultural context. Samira and her colleague try the Chinese cultural filter and they laugh their heads off when they see themselves bowing and smiling like Chinese. The conference starts and the business gets serious. Samira presents the results of a new study on girls higher education in the Middle East which could be adapted easily to rural China. After some discussions and exchange of documents, the session is over and she goes back to her office where a lot of work is waiting for her. Her assistant, a bright young Palestinian man, welcomes her with some fresh tea and the latest and most important information. An international conference on health is being prepared. A few weeks ago Samira presented some innovative ideas to the steering committee, and they asked her to join them. Samira is delighted despite all the additional work. Here she can implement her ideas for modern interactive conferences and event management. She would like to do most of the work from her office in Muscat and to have decisionmaking video conferences from time to time, but her partners asked that she come regularly to Dubai and so she has to travel even more. Travelling all over Middle East, Europe and Asia is thrilling and fascinating, but it has been taxing on her marriage and she and her husband finally split up. Her husband could not deal with her success and so they decided to divorce some months ago. Ahmad tried to place all the blame on Samira, but the law was on Samiras side. Omani law provides for equal rights between men and women. She regrets the end of her marriage, but since there was no chance in saving it, she looks forward to the professional challenges ahead. The afternoon is dedicated to another virtual conference with partners in India and in Vietnam. What strikes her most is to see how social, educational, and economic progress can transform countries, peoples opportunities, and their lifestyles. Samira is pleased to see that liberty and meritocracy are prevailing in the developing world. Sustainable development is also taken much more seriously and has been promoted to global governance priority. She gets a phone call from a company which is desperately searching for top executives

and experts. Thats the down-side of the economic boom; the war for talents has absorbed the high-performance individuals. After her Asian conference, she receives a call from England and her son tells her that he has got his MBA. Congratulations, thats something to celebrate! When do we meet?. Ive decided to get married, so we can celebrate my MBA at the wedding. Great news, Im looking forward to meeting you and your bride, but isnt your wedding a bit hasty? Not at all, were expecting a baby and my fianc comes from a traditional Chinese family, so we want to get married very soon. Break the news to Dad carefully. I see. Im looking forward to meeting you and your in-laws answers Samira. She smiles after her talk to her son; its so nice to hear that he is happy and successful. Telling her ex husband that his son is engaged to a Chinese girl will not be easy. For her there is no problem. I think that we all share the same ideals and values. What we need in this world is more tolerance and mutual understanding for cultural, ethnic and religious differences. She continues her work without any breaks and then in the evening she rewards herself and goes horseback-riding just before dawn. The air is still warm, but less hot than during the day. She enjoys just being in nature and sharing the experience with her wonderful Arabic horse. When she returns, her PDA has already prepared the meetings and tasks for the following day. Samira thinks to herself how nice it is to benefit from modern technology while living according to ones values.
JOHNS SCENARIOS Scenario A: Virtual Life

Economic growth in the United States has slowed due to a lack of American competitiveness. The United States has lost its pioneering position in the st domain of key technologies for the 21 century, to the profit of emerging countries in Asia. Also, military misadventures throughout the world have aggravated the American national debt. The negative economic repercussions were also felt in Europe. It seems that Western culture has definitely lost with respect to Asia. The lack of political will to reform, the attachment to outmoded politics, an aging demography, and the unrealistic hope that everything will automatically get better, all conspire to ensure that the West will continue to slide into mediocrity. Bank associations on a global scale exist everywhere. People meet more in virtual places than in reality. Virtual reality has almost entirely replaced direct contact between human beings. The young generation is used to communicating, cooperating, conceiving projects, getting educated, making friends, and even making love, virtually. The old generation has a hard time conceiving all of this, let alone understanding it. However, virtual reality is here to stay, and most people feel at ease with it. Work habits have been radically

modified over the last ten years. Rigid organizations have been replaced by flexible project organizations, which are constantly adapting and perpetually reinvented. For some time now, money has been at least partially virtual and at present, there is practically no cash to be found. Each transaction, even the smallest one, takes place virtually, and is therefore highly traceable. Are there any secret pleasures left? What about paying prostitutes, buying drugs, or secret rendezvous with mistresses. What about compulsive purchases like shoes, clothes, and cosmetics for ladies? No worries, humans are remarkably resourceful in this respect. Clandestine purchases go like this; for a certain premium, anonymity can be maintained for both vendor and buyer. Thats got to be a gold mine. Joh n remarks ironically while Nomonde waves his finger back-and-forth disapprovingly. Were talking about possible futures here, theres no need to make moral judgments. insists John. To understand the importance that fiscal anonymity plays in this society, imagine the lucrative cat-and-mouse industry of personal computer security. Fiscal anonymity is much like this. For every sophisticated measure to maintain anonymity, theres an equally sophisticated countermeasure to trace the transaction. Not surprisingly, the greatest use for this cryptography/decryptography game is jealous spouses. The virtual organization of personal and professional life has not spared adult education. The Institute for Management and Finance is currently a virtual platform equipped with sophisticated software agents which manage all financial data and knowledge throughout the world. An online version has recently been made available. Exams take place virtually and students are scattered throughout the world without ever having to meet their professors or colleagues face-to-face. Professions which require face-to-face contact are scarce. Nevertheless, one of these sectors happens to be the textile industry where tactility is key. In the textile industry, designers, manufacturers, and potential buyers not only have to conceive the fabrics, but also touch them before they are manufactured on a large scale. Thats why Giuliana is constantly in Italy where shes having much success with her latest innovative collections. Giuliana has clearly made her career a priority, and unfortunately, our family life has suffered as a consequence. However, if it werent for her career, I dont think she would really feel happy. My children, who have never really wanted much from their father, begin to demand more of my time, especially since their curious children have been born. I suppose thats one of the reasons motivating them to keep in touch with me. Theyve even proposed a family reunion. I think its safe to say that my family life has turned a new leaf.
Scenario B: Reality and Virtuality Are Indistinguishable

The United States continues to be a leader in research and development. This is partly due to Americas pioneering spirit of enterprise, and partly due to a highly-dynamic political and economic system there. Research and development are once again encouraged, rather than being sacrificed for shortterm profits. The climate for new and highly innovative technologies is excellent, and one is reminded of the early days of Silicon Valley. Investors throughout the world, who once eschewed American markets, are now coming back in droves. US foreign policy has also taken a multilateral turn, and the United States has abandoned its role as world police and now plays the role of mediator, and thus regained a good measure of respect, even in the Arab world. The European economy is also doing well following several radical reforms, particularly those regarding education and innovation. Industry associations and other organizations whose members are scattered around are taking full advantage of all the possibilities of virtual communication. Virtual reality, however, cannot always substitute for face-to-face contact. Direct contact (meeting face-to-face in tangible proximity) is particularly useful when making deals, resolving conflicts, or team brainstorming. Much of the intuitive feeling and intention is lost in the virtual world. There is nothing quite like looking into someones eyes directly and reading body language, as words alone are often misleading. Team training works fairly well virtually, however, the team dynamic changes radically when its members share a playful, sporty, or risky activity, or just share a drink together. Work takes place alternatively between the virtual and real worlds according to needs. Adult education is no different. For example, students can enroll in a real university in Paris and study in Moscow. Most of the time, that student can live in Moscow, and spend a minimum amount of time in Paris for orientation and to take exams. Rather than regular real-life attendance, or strictly online learning, a blended e-learning approach seems to be the most preferred, thats to say a mix between live (team projects and internships, direct and in realtime) and virtual learning. This new formula has considerably reduced the cost of education, which means that those who do not have a lot of financial resources, or alternatively those who come from poor countries, can now profit from adult education and from education in general. In the management context, it is now extremely important to have multicultural experiences, and not simply those experienced virtually. Therefore, those who have done their studies and internships in culturally diverse places, have a better chance of getting a job with the best multinational companies, and succeeding therein. In my private life, it seems a decisive change is in the offing particularly given the fact that Giuliana feels the need to spend more time with me, and to

improve our quality of life. After several deaths in her family, I think Giuliana realized that we dont perhaps have much time to spend together. My children and grandchildren have practically forgotten that I exist. They are busy with their own lives and careers, and cant be bothered to think about their old man. Moreover, since their old man has a young wife, she can pretty well take care of him in his old age. Besides, since when has their father been so worried about them?
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR STEP FIVE Reading these examples is relatively easy, but its a whole different story when youre faced with a blank sheet of paper. Here is some advice to help you succeed during this step: When describing scenarios, always start with the global and proceed to narrow to the more specific. For example, start with the social, technological, economic, and political environments. Then proceed to your industrial sector of activity, then your work environment, and finally your private life. Start by outlining the scenarios; you can refine them later. A complete text is the result of several edits. Therefore, dont panic if the first cut is not to your liking. Perhaps take a few days to rest and think about the scenarios between edits. If thats not enough, you can always call upon a friend to help you by asking you questions about the future. Record your responses (as sound) on your iPod, mobile phone, or computer. You can also note keywords linked to your responses on medium-sized Post-it notes. Questions must always have a direct link with the task at handin this case, creating a set of future alternatives. Why Post-it notes? The answer is simple; these notes can be arranged and rearranged on a larger piece of paper in whatever order you wish. Those who have already participated in training at their company are probably already familiar with the method called Metaplan. Consider the Post-it method like a simplified Metaplan. Not everyone has the gift for communicating in letters. Dont hesitate to start with an outline, supplemented with sketches and designs.
There are those who will want to represent their scenarios with the aid of images and collages. This method is perfectly acceptable and encouraged, particularly if youre someone who thinks better with your right side of your brain. Doing so will help you understand the scenario in its entirety, and also serve to help you remember them. Everyone knows the saying, A picture is worth a thousand words. When I think back to all of the scenario projects that Ive facilitated in the past, the ones that stand out are those which were represented as collages, and particularly those which we created together. My memory of these collages is vivid, and I can remember them in a blink of an eye. Another excellent approach is to describe a day in the life of someone in the year 20XX. This was the method chosen by Caroline and Samira, and is useful for those who desire a more concrete and human narrative. When applying this particular approach, youll be surprised as to just how far your imagination may wander. Others call upon games, skits, or charades. These approaches require both a physical and intellectual engagement, and are particularly suited to those with a kinesthetic temperament. Ive been privileged to witness some hilarious skits during the workshops that Ive facilitated. Nothing will help you feel what its like to live in the future, than playing out a scene set in the future with your team members. Those who love to work with their hands may use their skills to elaborate scenarios. Why not develop scenarios in the form of sculptures made of clay, wood, plaster, glass, acrylic, plastic, or wax? Graphic designers or those who can draw also love to create images about their scenarios. With the aid of a computer, you can create a slideshow in order to describe your scenario. One day a workshop participant asked me the following question; How do scenarios taste and smell? I had never been asked such a question, but I admit its an excellent one. When I work with groups who I believe have a particular sensibility for taste and smell, I ask this question. Since most everyone is equipped with sense of taste and smell, were capable of appreciating a delicious meal which arouses the
senses. Besides food and drink, there are plenty of activities which engage the olfactory and gustatory senses. There are even those who think, feel, work, and decide according to these senses. When we project ourselves into such a scenario, we never forget it because both olfactory and gustatory perceptions reside deep in reptilian brain. The most important thing is to choose a method which speaks to you emotionally, which engages you, and therefore creates the greatest emotional response.
Step 6: Consequence Analysis
What do I expect from a responsible manager? I expect him or her to be curious, and therefore to be ready to work in the present for the future. Helmut Maucher , former CEO of Nestl
Once we feel these scenarios heart and soul, then we have to ask ourselves what these scenarios mean, within the context of the persons chosen theme. Thats why the following step is entitled, Consequence Analysis.
What happens during this phase? We have to consider the risks and opportunities contained in each of these scenarios with respect to their protagonists, and how to manage them. That has two interesting consequences. If we compare the strategies of two scenarios, we notice that certain things are only possible in one or the other scenario, while most ideas are altogether possible in both scenarios. Its not only the protagonists motivations which explain why certain responses are possible in both scenarios. Let me give you an example from the world of business. Globalization of activities is compulsory in a scenario describing globalization; however, a small local company can still thrive in this environment if it focuses on serving local markets ignored by the global players. Given the various representations of the future, this stage allows one to recognize the concrete opportunities and risks posed to each protagonist. The protagonist is able to develop ideas and strategies which will help him/her confront their future. This stage requires; a lot of creativity, a capacity wander off the beaten path, abandonment of the certainties concerning the past, and an acceptance of the uncertainties regarding the future. While developing concrete strategies and ideas, its important to follow the following rules: Express actions with verbs in the first person. For example, I develop a humanitarian program with the following mission Dont be satisfied with posing superficial questions with the aid of a few key ideas, but rather make them concrete. For example, A humanitarian program whose mission is to provide shelter, food, and above all, education to street children in Brazil. Avoid killer phrases and remain open to possibilities. That means that you should avoid sentences which preclude the realization of other ideas. For example, avoid the following: - Its too expensive. - Its not technically feasible.
- We dont have sufficient research and development, technical capacity, or marketing knowledge to do such or such. - No one will ever buy this product. - And when we are out of ideas, we usually add the following well-known interjection, Finally Those of you who are managers know very well how these sweeping (and often false) statements can kill a project. So, what good are these killer statements anyway? Well to begin with, they demonstrate ability, among those who espouse them, to be critical. Nevertheless, this kind of criticism does not serve us here. Heres a collection of some of the worst killer statements, applied by individuals: Im not capable of that. Thats too ambitious for me. Ill never succeed. My boss/ my family/ my wife/ my companion will never accept that. That wont succeed, I dont have sufficient training. Im too old to make these changes. Im too young or too inexperienced for such or such task. And to top it all off, What would people say?
Lets examine now more closely the consequence analyses of our four protagonists, who all had to confront the issues to which we referred earlier. CAROLINES CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS Consequences of Scenario A
Scenario summary Economic power is migrating east, and the economies of old Europe are weakening. Risks: attractive jobs in the West become evermore scarce. Opportunities: new attractive jobs in developing countries. Risks: linguistic knowledge is insufficient to find work in Eastern Europe (new entrants to the
Opportunities/risks
98 / THERE IS ALWAYS AN ALTERNATIVE European Union). First of all, Im going to research the new member countries of the EU, their culture, their mentality, and the possibilities to study and work there. I could for example take advantage of my next vacation to go to Eastern Europe and learn about those countries. However, there are probably not enough job opportunities there, and Id really rather feel at ease with the country in which Im living (does the mentality really suit me? How people behave towards foreigners?) I think Im going to start by finding some contacts in Eastern Europe through the Internet. Some Eastern European penpals would allow me to get familiar with their mentality. Im going to perfect my English and enroll in supplementary courses. Id like to learn a third living language, but which one? (Russian, Polish, or German?) The far east is now an economic powerhouse, particularly China, India and South East Asia. Opportunities: interesting and attractive jobs in Asia. Risks: lack of linguistic and local knowledge to work in Asia. First of all Im going to research the emerging countries in Asia, their culture, their mentality, and possibilities to study and work there. Again, Im going to start with some penpals online. Im going to try to do an internship in Asia. I could make some initial contacts through the foreign students at my own university. Im going to perfect my English
My activities
Scenario summary
Opportunities/risks
My activities
THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 99 and enroll in supplementary courses. Im going to try to get in touch with my old Thai friend, whom I almost forgot about. That makes me think that I could even enroll in a humanitarian effort to rebuild houses there destroyed during the tsunami. This would also be a good way to bolster my environmental credentials. I could also try to find all the former students at my university who are now living in Asia, and ask them to sponsor me. They could also be very useful in supplying information concerning visas, studies, and internships in Asia. Furthermore, as students, we could create a self-sufficient virtual organization conjointly with foreign students here in Europe, and European students living abroad in Asia. The goal of the organization would be to exchange experiences, advice, and tips concerning Europe/Asia abroad. I have one more crazy idea; theres a tv show called, live my life in which two people who come from diametrically opposed professions and social conditions, live the life of the other person for a certain period of time. I could imagine the same thing only with students from Europe and Asia. For example, a French student could live the life of an Indian student, in every detail including financial, familial, and otherwise, and the Indian student would do the same thing in France. Markets are dominated by global players.
Scenario summary
100 / THERE IS ALWAYS AN ALTERNATIVE Opportunities/risks My activities Opportunities/risks: resist or support the global players? I think Ill start by looking for an internship at one of the global players, in order to familiarize myself with its structure, its strategy, and its way of thinking. Then, Ill make my own judgements, and take appropriate actions, such as taking advantage of international career opportunities, but only if doing so doesnt undermine my own values. European universities are attractive. Im going to make contact with the Federation of European students in order to find out more about European universities, possibilities for studies, and possible exchanges with students throughout Europe. Im going to spend my remaining semesters abroad, and do some internships there. The rediscovery of the importance of human relations and proximity. Im going to explore my family history and begin to take an active role in coordinating family activities. For example, with respect to organization, one person will do the shopping, another will take care of the children, the young will teach the elderly how to work with computers and technology, and vice versa, and the elderly are available to take care of the children. The family network could also be managed in a professional way. Im going to research new models for family structures in order to discover which one suits
Scenario summary My activities
THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 101 me best. More solidarity among friends during economically difficult periods, and young families. Im ready to engage in more solidarity, so long as my friends do the same. The idea of sharing an apartment is also attractive. Another project could consist of helping the homeless in our neighborhood, inviting them over, and cooking them a meal. On the other hand, I dont really want to start a family too early. Then again, maybe.
Scenario summary
My activities
Consequences of Scenario B
Scenario summary Old Europe regains some of its former economic power and is once again attractive to investors. Europe is at the center of innovation. Opportunities: more attractive jobs in Europe. Risks: competition for attractive jobs in Europe is intense. First of all, Im going to research new opportunities and where the growth is highest in Europe. Where are these new places, what makes them culturally attractive, whats the mentality of the people who live there, and what are the possibilities for study and work. I could put the ideas from scenario A here (developments in the EU and in Asia) Im going to perfect my English and enroll in supplementary language courses. Id like to learn a third living language, but which? (Italian or Portuguese?) Flexible and dynamic networks
Opportunities/risks
My activities
Scenario summary
102 / THERE IS ALWAYS AN ALTERNATIVE have replaced large, traditional corporations. Opportunities: new possibilities to work within a network. Risks: Lack of appropriate business knowledge/experience to work in such a network. First of all, Im going to research all the possibilities and qualifications relating to working in a virtual or real network. Im going to enroll in courses on managing virtual networks, and begin working on concrete networking projects with my new colleagues. Im going to try to participate an internship for project managers of networks, something which is offered at our university. Academia is not very attractive, but the flavoring and perfume industries are developing well throughout the world. Opportunities/risks: systematic monitoring of the flavoring and perfume industries is essential. Im going to participate in a project at my university for protecting regional plants, and also try to make a decision with respect to my engagement industry. Going to try to find an internship in a French perfume and flavorings company, and prepare myself to seize the career opportunities presented to me there. The traditional family no longer exists, and relationships follow the same principles as business. Im going to take advantage of my free time to explore various opportunities at large companies, and then eventually as an independent professional.
Opportunities/risks
My activities
Scenario summary
Opportunities/risks
My activities
Scenario summary
My activities
THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 103 I will eventually try new forms of shared living and relationships what do I have to lose? I need to ask myself are these new living and relationship arrangements in line with my values, which are a precondition for my well-being. Family solidarity is a value of the past what matters are useful partnerships. I dont know if Im cut out for this, but Ill do it anyway because Im sure of my values and principles.
Scenario summary
My activities
Comments on Carolines Consequence Analysis: Caroline made a good effort in summarizing her scenarios, but didnt detail the opportunities and risks. That is altogether legitimate. The opportunities and risks should be a bridge between the scenario summaries and the activities. If you dont need this bridge to discover your activities, then you can drop them. Its the quality of the activities which count in the end.
MARTINS CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS Before the next session consecrated to consequence analysis with Martins coach, Martin receives some bad news. That which Martin had long feared and constantly repressed finally happenedhis company was bought out by a Taiwanese investor who anticipates radical restructuring and firing 60% of the workforce, including management. The management has two months to transform the company into a super-lean organization according to the strict demands of the investor. Severance packages will also be leanwell below those expected by German workers. Martin is part of the 60% that must be let go and he is devastated by the news. As much as he had hoped that in the case of massive layoffs, he wouldnt be affected due to his exceptionally high performance at the company, things turned out differently. The
Taiwanese investor is an entrepreneurial company with several successful acquisitions the world over. Furthermore, it has a reputation for taking radical steps in order to make its acquired properties profitable, with little regard to social impact or the individual destinies of the acquired workforce. Martin is in a catatonic state which precludes any creative activity concerning the future or scenarios. The session is therefore used to try to overcome the shock and to perceive the silver lining in the looming dark clouds. What could possibly be positive in that? he grumbles, but Ariane insists; Everything bad has a positive side, think about it again and imagine the situation from another angle. Thats easy to say. Martin replies incredulously. Then finally, Martin is able to grumble a few positive aspects such as, Well, Ill finally have enough time to spend with my family, but will they really be delighted about that? What other advantages are there? asks the coach. I might finally be able to change my specialization. Ive been working in mechanical engineering for a long time, and its become rather boring and routine. What specialty might interest you? Everything related to technology, speed, and motorsports. For example, the construction of recreational planes, motorcycles, or yachts. By pronouncing these words, Martin forgets his sadness, and his eyes begin to sparkle. Then, he stops once again, by saying that he doesnt have any experience in the sectors in question. Ariane maintains the pressure and demands; What could you bring to the sectors from your previous experience? A considerable experience of project management, innovation, marketing, and technical knowledge. By bringing a neutral and exterior perspective to these sectors, we can often make things work quicker than someone who is already been there 20 years in the company. Thats already much better and Ariane gives him a task to be completed by the next session. Martin must make a list of qualifications required in each sector, and enumerate the possible opportunities for the future, and the recruiting situation for managers. With these ideas in mind, Martin leaves his coach in an optimistic mood.
The next session starts with the analysis of what Martin had discovered in the interval. The results of his research show that none of his chosen sectors are doing particularly well, however they are more or less stable. The construction of yachts seems the most lucrative market because it targets affluent clients who have abundant resources and are relatively sheltered from the vicissitudes of the market. Following this diagnostic, Martin decides to work with his coach on the consequence analysis and considering those sectors of activities within the frame already defined (tourist planes, yachts, and motorcycles). We have to therefore take into consideration the evolution of these sectors of activity with respect to the two scenarios. Consequences of Scenario A
Scenario summary The European economy has gotten back on its feet, reforms have been set in place, and innovation is supported. Opportunities/risks: only the highest performing individual and organizations survive in this economic situation. Risk: traditional enterprise disappears and the increasing rate of unemployment puts pressure on the labor market. Opportunity: good possibilities for the evolution of high-end products and services. First, Im going to research growing sectors and their prospects for the future. Im going to intensify my contacts with my network of consultants, and try to find a consultant job as an alternative. Im going to reactivate the contacts that Ive already established with headhunters. New oppportunities are abundant throughout the world, particularly
Opportunities/risks
My activities
Scenario summary
106 / THERE IS ALWAYS AN ALTERNATIVE where economic conditions are favorable; new revolutionary technologies in the mechanical engineering industry. Opportunity: new attractive jobs abroad. Risk: insufficient linguistic knowledge to work abroad (for example: the business language is English). First of all, Im going to research which are the most attractive sites throughout the world. Moreover, Im going to think about the sector where my competences are the most demanded (without excluding any sector) Im going to perfect my English (language courses, television shows in English, i-pod and CDs in my car, reading newspapers and novels in English) The German mechanical engineering industry is disappearing because of the better quality of foreign competitors. Opportunity: new opportunities in other sectors of activity. Im going to research my preferred sectors, and leave myself open to other sectors which might be interesting. Total virtuality in my professional and personal life. Im going to remake contact with former college buddies dispersed throughout the world, and examine the possibilities of working with them. Im going to create a network of experts in the mechanical engineering industry, in order to help each other with recommendations, finding new jobs, consulting or just
Opportunities/risks
My activities
Scenario summary
Opportunities/risks My activities
THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 107 networking. After having exhausted the above, Im going to call upon my colleagues contacts at suppliers, clients, and associates. The kids have left the house and my wife can thrive again professionally. Im going to use my time for those things which I have neglected. Im going to realize an old dreamto travel around the world on a sailboat, which would also allow me to see my children.
Scenario summary
My activities
Consequences of Scenario B
Scenario summary The economy takes a dive, unemployment and bankruptcy are on the rise. Opportunities: traditional enterprise once again has a chance in the local market. The mechanical engineering industry has been reduced to a minimum and offers few jobs. Im going to maintain contact with the sector and its networks. In parallel, Im going to establish contacts with my desired sectors; leisure aircraft, motorcycles, and pleasure boats. Im going to reactivate and intensify my contacts already established with headhunters and make others. Im going to give conferences on innovation, management, and how to apply project management, while offering my services as a trainer, and facilitator of seminars and meetings to professional
Opportunities/risks
My activities
108 / THERE IS ALWAYS AN ALTERNATIVE seminar and event organizers. Eastern Europe is prosperous. Risk: a race for jobs in Eastern Europe. First of all Im going to research those attractive and highgrowth locations throughout the world. Moreover, Im going to contact those sectors where my skills are most demanded (without excluding any sector) Ill decide whether or not to leave Germany, and include my family in the decision. Perhaps it would be opportune to strike out elsewhere. The trend is to return to ones origins, to the homeland of the clan. Im going to research motorcycle clubs, and become a member of several sports clubs. Im also going to reactivate contacts that I let drop. Im going to use my personal network to gather ideas for myself, for a new job, or eventually a freelance activity. Theres got to be career counselors who can give me some ideas. Besides local contacts, I maintain contacts throughout the world. These enriching and stimulating contacts can assist me in my search.
Scenario summary Opportunities/risks My activities
Scenario summary
My activities
After the consequence analysis, Martin feels a little better. Although he hasnt really produced any super-new ideas, he believes that working on the future has given him hope to be able to apply new ideas which he wouldnt have dared consider otherwise. Ariane points out to him that its not about a contest of new ideas, but rather actionable and valuable possibilities for the
future which inspire hope. Its obviously a whole different story when youre used to being someone for whom success comes easily. she adds with a sarcastic smile. Martin leaves with a newfound optimism, and hes ready to confront the world which seems somehow brighter and more full of opportunities. SAMIRAS CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS Now what are you doing with these scenarios? asks Khaled. Its time to construct your future. Yes I am really curious and want to make the best of it, and maybe even derive some ideas for my entrepreneurial ambition. Now that sounds like my good friend Samira talking. says Khaled. Samira chooses a more simple form of Consequence Analysis by dropping opportunities and risks and immediately jumping to activities. Consequences of Scenario A Scenario summary: Back to traditional values.
Samiras Activities Make the best of it. Frankly speaking, I dont like this new situation, but it inspires my creativity and I can imagine opening an office for mediation where I help people who are struggling between modern society and the traditional value system. I could offer mediation services to families, couples, employers, and employees. Another idea is to offer counseling to families and couples to help them before getting in trouble, a kind of preventive counseling. And I see a big issue in counseling women who want to escape the traditional system but who have no means and no power to do so. I can help them with a kind of womens sanctuary. I remember seeing something like that when I lived in Europe. Women were able to get shelter and protection against their violent husbands. Furthermore I develop a service for girls and young women desiring higher education. They need coaching and any kind of help that their families refuse to provide.
Scenario summary: Networks split into regional networks

Samiras Activities
110 / THERE IS ALWAYS AN ALTERNATIVE I will create an Arab network of all alumni coming from Europe and the USA. We will develop an ethic codex which will be agreed upon with the Westerners. We identify ourselves as citizens of the world believing in ethic and cultural standards accepted all over the world. I will create new courses for intercultural cooperation, for high schools and universities. Better yet, that could be a new business idea..an organization having as its mission to help companies improving their intercultural cooperation. I could design and run seminars for Western, Arabic, and Asian companies. This company can provide mediation services in case of problems and conflicts, preventive counseling, intercultural team building and so on. Samira jumps up, paces all over the room and gets more and more excited about her ideas. Khaled, thats it I have my business idea! That sounds great, but we have to continue with your ideas and to check this concept with the second scenario, replies Khaled, smiling about Samiras enthusiasm.
Scenario summary: High Potential labor market in the Gulf declining

Samiras Activities Either Im satisfied with what I can achieve in this country and in the region under prevailing constraints or I try my luck elsewhere. I could search for a new job in UK or elsewhere in Europe, or I challenge the system here and build my company for intercultural cooperation with a corporate, government, and private department. With this organization I can help companies, government authorities, and individuals.
Scenario summary: Omani economy is principally Oil and Gasbased

Samiras Activities Step out of university life and into industry; help them better manage their HR problems and increase efficiency. If they accept a woman I think I can help them with many issues. One might be how to improve the relations with their Western partners, conflict management, preventive crisis management and so on.
Scenario summary: Unstable political development in the Gulf

Samiras Activities Here my organization could really be of use. What the region needs is help in problem solving, conflict management and strategies to overcome this situation. So my institute should also cover strategic and political consulting.
Consequences of Scenario B Scenario summary: Innovative developments.

Samiras Activities Business gets easier with all these technological achievements: we communicate and cooperate around the world. But how can people deal with all the progress? I can offer them some support in dealing with the latest technologies. Furthermore our managers have to be prepared for this worldwide and intercultural business. Here again, my company can be helpful in providing research, consulting, mediation, conference management services, and so on.
I see that the excitement for this new enterprise has really seized you. remarks Khaled, Lets get on with it. Youve already tested your business idea in the second scenario, and thats very good. Samira responds, You know this cultural filter for communication is still playing in my head and I wonder if I cant turn it into something useful. To understand the cultural perceptions of another culture is always useful. The training can be on-site in the other culture and on-line with the cultural filter, so that people can cross-reference the cultural feedback immediately and can adapt their behavior. Scenario summary: Demand for high-performance individuals due to the economic boom in the Gulf region.
Samiras Activities I should either join a recruiting company and cooperate with the best head-hunters in the region, or I should integrate recruiting services into my company. The question remains: How can we attract highperformance individuals from all over the world to come to the Gulf region? We have to offer them something which they wouldnt find in Asia, Europe or America. I have to think about that.
Scenario summary: The Omani economy is principally servicebased.

Samiras Activities Weve got a long way to go before that happens. Oman is too dependent on Gas and Oil revenue at the moment. So what we need to do is diversify the economy. I think I can help with my ideas
112 / THERE IS ALWAYS AN ALTERNATIVE in the various political councils: We have to diversify the economy within the next 10 years: one sector could be IT and conference services for all companies who have chosen the Middle East as its headquarters. Another idea is to develop a kind of sustainable tourism in Oman. The country is so beautiful and has so much to offer in terms of nature, sea, sand and mountains; practically all leisure activities can be practiced in our environment.
Scenario summary: Divorce

Samiras Activities This idea is not so easy to accept; but is not beyond the realm of possibility. I have to prepare myself for such an alternative, because Ahmad is not very supportive and has been rather distant lately. Lets assume that our marriage cannot be saved. What does that mean to me? Besides the emotional problems and those with my family, I have to look ahead and prepare my professional situation. Now I am certain; I must create this institute and neither Ahmad nor anyone else can prevent me from doing so.
Maybe the issue with Ahmad is not so dramatic and you can convince him, as you always have in the past. interjects Khaled. Well see, but my mind is now very clear replies Samira. But were not yet at the end of the process. Youve only just derived consequences from each scenario, you still have to fuse them into a Master Guidelineand there is where you have to make your most important decisions remarks Khaled. JOHNS CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS At this stage of the process, John has a provocative discussion with Nomonde. John says, What good is all that? Who knows if in 10 years Ill still be alive., and What good are all of these thoughts about the very long-term future? Nomonde replies; So that youre able to create your present and your path towards the future, insofar as you have one, in a conscious, joyful and responsible manner. John gives in; after all opposing Nomonde in the philosophical realm doesnt much make sense, as hell never have the last word. So, John begins the consequence analysis, so long as hes able do it his way. Nomonde agrees, insofar as that doesnt lead to errors. Although John is someone rather square, he would like to develop some totally outrageous
ideas about his life inspired by the scenarios. Like Samira, John also chooses a simplified Consequence Analysis. Consequences of Scenario A Scenario Summary: Western societies have been overtaken economically, technically and culturally by Asian societies.
Johns Activities I could engage as an intercultural mediator given my international experience.
What do you want to do exactly? asks Nomonde

I can imagine giving courses to Western decision-makers on the philosophy of other cultures, notably those in Asia and Africa. I could widen the offer to include decision-makers from all sectors, not just banking and finance. In the same vein, I could leverage my contacts with the Institute for Finance and Management to make this happen. Since financial institutions are principally virtual, Ill deliver articles, essays, and blogs to these platforms on the subjects of intercultural questions, such as; What can we, as Westerners, learn from other cultures? How to transform the differences which exist between our cultures into useful synergies. and so on.
Scenario Summary: everything is virtual: world of work, and human relations.

Johns Activities
Associations, the
I will also live in this virtual world and take advantage of it, but with my association, Ill try to confer a certain human and real aspect to the communications there.
And how will you do that? Nomonde asks.

You know that Ive always succeeded as a banker to give capital a human face. Why couldnt I likewise use this capacity to transform the virtual into real? I just need to think about how to proceed. Perhaps we can staff a website with several people who can be represented as avatars and can chat with clients. I think that technology already exists. Another possibility would be to schedule a real conference following three virtual conferences in order that users can get to know one another, and share some drinks together. We could also introduce contests or races during real meetings where virtual cheating is not an option.
114 / THERE IS ALWAYS AN ALTERNATIVE At the heart of our banking association and in our Institute for Finance and Management we could create the following rules; the headquarters of the club rotates to a different country every year, and real meetings between the virtual meetings take place every year in a different country or on a different continent.
Scenario Summary: virtual money is the only form of currency, with all the positive and negative aspects of a cashless society.
Johns Activities Ill write articles, speak at conferences, and give courses to those who have problems with their virtual moneyafter all, finance is my profession. More concretely, I could contact those groups who consider virtual money problematic, by virtue of its intangibility and thus tendency to be abused. My principal mission would be to explain to these people what are the possibilities to secure their money, and to help them transition to these new technologies. Showing them that with virtual money we can do things that we couldnt do otherwise, for example financial operations throughout the world, making on-line purchases, researching partners for leisure or romance, etc. Maybe therell be a field trip to a virtual brothel, paying with virtual money, of course.
I think Giuliana has been in Italy too long, otherwise, you wouldnt have such thoughts. interrupts Nomonde with a mischievous smile. But perhaps that stimulates your creativity, and you know that anything which heightens your creativity is welcome.
Im going to found a club to help elderly people with new technologies, virtual money and all the technological innovations which are going to appear in the near future. Id rather that they dont learn all of this from their grandchildren, but from their peers who are in a position to better understand their apprehension faced with technology. That would be an ideal job for retired IT professionals who were still enthusiastic about technology, but are often pushed out of their jobs. That would give them confidence and dignity.
Scenario Summary: Adult education is exclusively virtual.

Johns Activities With my colleagues, Ill transform the Institute for Management and Finance into a virtual institute. Well advertise to students throughout the world and well prepare an international diploma, all of which can be obtained virtually. Well also be able to easily organize
THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 115 international contests in order to obtain scholarships and establish entirely virtual curricula, including the exams. That will allow us to save money and invest in the development of similar programs in the Third World.
John is very excited at the thought of this new institute which he intends to create and which will be his brainchild. Scenario Summary: Giuliana effectively moves to Italy. Hmmm, thats really difficult mutters John, moreover I refuse to believe it. But, thats not excluded from the range of possibility and thats why we must confront it. insists Nomonde
Johns Activities Well, Im going to try to see that in a positive way. Italy wouldnt be the worst place to live; the quality of life, the culture, the operas, the food, and the people would suit me quite well. And my Italian is not that bad. Why not live in Italy? I could manage my virtual Institute from Italy, and travel from time to time to England.
Would that really please you, to live in Italy as the appendage of your young and dynamic wife? Dont forget that shes in the middle of her brilliant career, works a lot, makes presentations, travels, and has little time to devote to your private life. That means that you will be alone frequently in Italy. When you will be invited out, it will be her who is the principal person, not you. Youll simply be the husband of a successful wife.
As usual, you hit the nail on the head. Of course, thatd be difficult. My former world was completely the opposite, but I couldnt possibly let my vanity and machismo destroy our relationship. I think Id simply adapt to this style of living. Besides, I would have the Institute, and so I wouldnt be just sitting around at home. And while Guiliana continues to work, I can savor Italian life; go to museums, concerts, wine tastings, etc.
Well if you see things that way, your life as a retired banker no longer makes you afraid. smiles Nomonde. And what about your children? Well, I suppose that if they decided to get to know their old man better, Id be happy, but its not really my turn to make the first move, wouldnt you agree?
Consequences of Scenario B Scenario Summary: Boom in the United States and Old Europe
Johns Activities That has a nice ring to it. But could I really return to the United States? My center of gravity is in Europe, and I feel more European than American. But maybe I could reactivate my contacts in the United States, find my former colleagues and peers, and find out whats happening in my sector. But thats about all I could do.
Scenario Summary: European markets are doing better; there is more innovation and more initiatives for training.
Johns Activities Its difficult in this context for my Institute to find a niche. But we can position ourselves by filling several gaps which are not currently covered by the traditional educational system. Moreover, we could extend our program to include ethical questions and act like a think tank concerning the virtual and globalized world; issues relating to emerging State models, etc. I have another good idea, the institute could offer exactly what youre doing with me right now, notably coaching for retirees, and we could even offer similar services to couples.
Since you brought up couples, where is Giuliana, the love of your life with whom you intend to create a common future? inquires Nomonde with a slightly sarcastic tone. You know that shes not here and that she doesnt have time. Besides, this is neither the time nor the place to be critical. You need to be constructive, according to the rules you laid out from the beginning. Replies John.
I have another good idea: managers are constantly losing their balance, they work too hard, neglect their family, suffer from burnouts, get stressed out, practice too little or no sports, gain weight, smoke, drink too much alcohol, take too many meds, or partake in risky behavior. So, for all those who start a career in management, we could offer coaching on work-life balance issues with their partners. In any case, the sessions would be accompanied by a real coach, face-to-face. And for those problems which cant wait, we could offer a hotline. Finally we could patent this concept and commercialize it throughout the world.
With these ideas, John is excited and in an excellent mood, like before, when hes searching for new ideas. For someone whos preparing his retirement, it seems like a lot of work. How are you going to reconcile all of this with your new life? asks Nomonde. Its very easy. Ill play the role of the spiritual father and counselor for younger executives who implement the projects. Theyll be plenty of time to enjoy my life with Giuliana, if she still wants to GENERAL REMARKS ON THE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS This phase is not very easy, because the protagonist must transport himself into the new world and consider how hed want his life to be. Heres some advice. Leave your prejudices behind and be patient. You may even need several days rest between the first and second scenario. In case you fall into counterproductive thinking or start resorting to killer phrases such as Thatll never work because, the help of a coach or a friend can be very useful to remind you of the rules of the process, and to show you how to proceed with success.
Step 7: Wild Card Analysis
What would be the merit if the hero was never afraid? Alphonse Daudet
The goal of this step is to anticipate unexpected events and learn how to manage them. You might be tempted to respond, Thats impossible! How can I anticipate unpredictable events? Like other steps throughout this process, its not about forecasting, but rather simply envisioning the possible and then confronting it. When we consider the downside risks in the future, most of us think in terms of catastrophes. Many of us have lived through difficult times; the sudden accidental death of a loved one, serious illnesses, the loss of job, of a house, or worse, the loss of your own dignity. No one is immune to these events. We always hope that these tragic events will only happen to others. Nevertheless, we ought to consider that such unwelcome events could happen to us. We observe regularly those who are able to overcome adversity, pull up their bootstraps, and take their destiny in their own hands, while others are defeated by such events. Of course, our reactions will depend on our personality. Nevertheless, someone who has already confronted several possible unwelcome events in the form of thought-experiments is in a much better position to manage them should they arrive. I cant help but think about my nice neighbors, a recently retired Danish couple. Unfortunately, they have known some difficult times. Knut had cancer at the age of 39. After a long therapy of five years, the doctors told him he was cured. The doctor who was treating Knut had modified his treatment before discharging him. That same night, while they were celebrating his recovery with friends, he had a stroke due to the change in medication. In the beginning, the prognosis was bad. The doctors told Knut that he would never be able to ever leave his wheelchair, nor talk, nor drive. With an iron will and the loving support of his wife Lisa, Knut retrained himself. Knut admits that Lisa gave him reason to live. Their doctors advised them to move south in order to spend the last third of their life in an agreeable climate. Today, Knut drives his car with ease (his vehicle is adapted to his handicap) and although hes paralyzed on the right side, he indulges joyously in gardening, and with surprising dexterity. When I see Knut and Lisa together, Im always impressed by
their positive vision of life, and the way in which they savor each day and each beam of Mediterranean sunlight. I think that these unwelcome events can help us grow and develop. They can even be transformed into opportunities if we understand how to manage them. Without Knuts illness, they would certainly never be living in the south of France, the place where they are thriving today. But there are also unexpected positive events in our lives that are often as difficult managing as negative ones. Such events include; inheritance which often pits family members against one another, or lottery winners who spend their money in record time. In the latter case, people find themselves in an even worse situation than before because in their euphoria, they quit their job, and then ultimately they find themselves both broke and without a source of income. How does this 7th step work? First of all, you have to think about all those things that could happen. Then you have to ask yourself which are the worst events. You may not be capable of enumerating all these events in a single session. Thats ok. You may need to spread this step out over several days or even weeks. My advice is the following; be constantly attentive with your eyes and ears open. That will allow you to hear and see the events which happened to others. Once your list is complete, youll move on to the analysis. Effect on the scenarios (only valid for global events) Effect on the protagonist; that includes the modifications in the scenario and any direct effects of the immediate environment. Preventive measures; how to stop the event from occurring? How to protect yourself and prepare yourself for the effects of the event. How to take advantage of these events? Reactive measures. What should I do once the event happens (short and medium term) and lessons learnt. Lets take a look at the possible wild cards of our four protagonists.
CAROLINES WILD CARDS

Losing her place at University No job after she finishes her studies Employer goes bankrupt Family catastrophes (deaths, accidents, serious illnesses) Personal catastrophes (accidents, handicap) Inheritance Winning the lottery
MARTINS WILD CARDS The worst has already happened, thinks Martin. What could possibly be worse? Lots of things, explains his coach, give it some thought.
My new employer is a catastrophe and I quit after my trial period. My new employer goes bankrupt My wife accepts an attractive job offer in the United States or in Asia One of my parents or parents-in-law becomes bedridden and doesnt have sufficient insurance Serious accident or illness of my wife or children Divorce Death of my partner Serious illness or infirmity after an accident My own death
SAMIRAS WILD CARDS

A natural disaster destroys our family home. A severe illness of a family member. A sudden death of an active member of the family. Loss of my job. Scandal at the university in which I am involved. Fraud of my business partners or colleagues. My new company goes bankrupt. Something happens to my children which I dont want to imagine. A new war in the Middle East. New energy sources discovered outside the Gulf region. New energy sources substituting oil and gas are discovered and largely commercialized.
JOHNS WILD CARDS What could happen, besides my own death? asks John. A lot of things can happen between today and tomorrow, between life and death, even for you. replies Nomonde. Think carefully
Complete bankruptcy of my bank provoked by the successors, leading to a drastic reduction of my share of the pension fund. Discovery of illegal transactions under the responsibility of my Board of Directors which I didnt know about, such as:
Insider trading Frauding investors Money laundering Financing illegal arms sales Corruption Betrayal of bank secrets or protected data Scandals at the Institute for Management and Finance (embezzlement, sex scandals, nonconformity to affirmative action, taking bribes for favorable exam results) Giuliana leaves England for professional reasons Giuliana leaves me Giuliana has an accident or a serious illness I get sick or become an invalid My death I dont think I can imagine anything else
Oh, yes you can Nomonde says. In order to really prepare for the next stage, you need to think about the following; settling your succession at the bank and at your Institute. You need to treat the question of inheritance (what will your children and your wife inherit and in what proportions) without forgetting the question of spiritual inheritance and for whom. Think beyond your material concerns. Now thats a new challenge for me. In the following section, were going to present a few examples of wild card analysis, particularly one for each person: CAROLINES WILD CARD ANALYSIS
Wild card: No job at the end of my studies. Consequences on my life: Such a situation would be catastrophic for me. No work, no money, how would I live? I want to be independent from my family.
Preventive Measures
To avert the wild card: I could apply to several companies before the end of my studies, notably those at which I did an internship.

Immunization: I could apply to companies throughout the world in various sectors of activity. If I do that, Ill have to take into consideration the economic health of each sector. How can I benefit from the wild card?: Off the top of my head, I have no idea. I suppose I could realize my dream of becoming autonomous from my family. Ive already had some ideas with a few of my student colleagues.
Reactive Measures
Short-term: Ill take the first job that comes my way. Ive no problem being a waitress in a restaurant, or working in a supermarket. The best would be to find a job which would leave me enough time to search for my dream job. Medium-term: I either prepare myself for some sort of entrepreneurial activity, or I go abroad where there are more attractive job offers, which is to say in Eastern Europe or in the United States.
Lessons learnt
Nothing in life is completely foreseeable, because nothing is for sure. Thats why it is good to accept the unknown as an opportunity.
MARTINS WILD CARD ANALYSIS

Wild card: My wife Isabelle accepts an attractive job in the United States. Thats been her dream for some time now. Thirteen years ago she already had a fantastic offer from CNN. She even went to Atlanta, received confirmation of the job offer, but in the end she turned it down because she was pregnant. Ever since, she dreams about it, and I think that if the opportunity comes knocking again, shell take it, without much thought for the consequences on the family.
Ariane interrupts Martin and asks him, When would this event provoke the most trouble? Sooner or later? If this event happens now, it would be the most difficult to manage because the children are not yet autonomous and they still need their mother. Okay good, so now were going to treat this problem as if it is supposed to happen in the next few months. Events of this type must always be imagined where they could provoke the most decisive consequences. Introducing a wild card at a time when the consequences no longer matter, doesnt aid your analysis. The point of this exercise is to try to learn how to manage difficult events.
Consequences on my life: So, if I imagine that it could happen soon, then it would be very difficult. I can imagine two possible situations for me. In the first

case, I havent yet found a new job and Im still at home. In the second case, Ive just found a new job at a new company. Which of the two should I choose?
Play out each as separate variants in your analysis, thatll lead to the most interesting results. Responds Ariane
Variant 1 - Ive not yet found a job; consequences on my life: Well, in this case I could devote more time to my children if they needed me. Moreover, I could try to work from home. I have a rather crazy idea; we can all go to the United States for two years. The kids speak decent English, and I think that would do them some good to spend two years in the United States. All I would need to do is to get a green card and look for work in the USA.
Preventive measures
To avert the wild card: I wouldnt have a heart to keep my wife from realizing her American dream. She has always sacrificed her ambitions for the sake of family, and now its her turn to have her chance. Immunization: First of all, were going to perfect our English in order to be ready to confront this situationweve got nothing to lose and everything to gain. Then, as a family well be able to discuss the possibility of spending some time abroad, particularly in the United States, and see if that is something everyone wants to do. How can I benefit from the wild card?: One or two years in the United States would surely be useful for everyone. Its just a matter of finding the possibilities to work there.
Reactive measures
Short-term: Finding appropriate schools for the children, finding a house, etc., (should be no problem with the aid of the Internet) Medium-term: Dont lose contact with Germany and Europe, so that Im prepared to succeed upon my return (job, schools, etc.)
Lessons learnt
If we look carefully enough, certain disrupting events turn out to be opportunities.
Ariane asks once again if the alternative in which Martin remains in Germany with the children is still valid. If I dont find a job, I
would prefer to go with the family to the United States. He says spontaneously.
Variant 2 - I have a new job; consequences on my life: The situation becomes more and more untenable. I have to find a housekeeper and organize my professional life differently. I take no or very few business tripsif this is even possibleand dedicate more time to my kids.
Preventive measures
To avert the wild card: This is delicate. Martin struggles to know if he must convince Isabelle to give up going to the United States. But in the end he decides not to dissuade her. So, no strategies or tactics for blocking. Immunization: Putting the kids in an international school would eventually be the solution; otherwise I dont see how it can be done. How can I benefit from the wild card event?: Everyone has the opportunity to thrive as he/she wishes.
Reactive measures
Short-term: Managing the logistics of a separated family. Medium-term: Schedule some travel to the United States during my vacation
Lessons learnt
I have absolutely no idea
SAMIRAS WILD CARD ANALYSIS Now you should choose the most threatening wild card for you and your career asks Khaled. Thats not so easy, because there are wild cards which touch me more personally and those which are more significant for my professional life. I think, Ill take one which is the most dangerous for my new companybankruptcy.
Wild card: Bankruptcy of my new company. This situation can be caused either by implementing a wrong strategy, or products and services not accepted by the market, or non-compliance with political rules and so on.
Now imagine, in which scenario this wild card would create the worst trouble? asks Khaled.
I guess it will disturb both, but in different ways. Lets start with scenario A and if we need to, we can also analyze the consequences in scenario B. Bankruptcy of my new company under Scenario A framework due to a noncompliance with the rules and services not accepted in this society. Consequences on my life: I lose my income and my reputation and its difficult to restart an entrepreneurial venture. I will become dependent from my familys support and my husbands income. Worst of all I lose my s elfconfidence and my dignity as a financially independent woman.
Preventive measures
To avoid the wild card: I have to adjust my services to what the market really needs. I can imagine the classic mediation services and some conflict prevention courses in schools and companies will work under this scenario. Immunization: I should take a male business partner in this more conservative world; then the more conservative clients can deal with a man and the others with me. In this scenario I will target women who need support, coaching and encouragement in their private and professional life. Working principally with women is fully adapted to this scenario environment. How can I benefit from this wild card?: Strange, I dont see any professional benefit, but perhaps a personal one. For instance, I can relax a bit more and live with what I have achieved. I can take care of the family and help my mother. I can travel even more and enjoy longer trips. Ahmad will be happy when Im able to spend more time with him a nd can accompany him on business trips abroad.
Reactive measures
Short-term: Wrap things up with the company, analyze the reasons for this event, and try to get my job back at the university. Mid-term: Why not write a book which is also a long-time dream of mine. Do networking in order to prepare the market for a new company.
Lessons learnt
Learn from my mistakes and do it better next time for the coming entrepreneurial venture.
So far so good for this scenario remarks Khaled and what would this wild card mean for scenario B. Ok, lets tackle scenario B; the consequences on my life are the same as in scenario A. Preventive measures
To avoid the wild card: My company should be based upon several pillars; the first is the mediation and counseling service for families and individuals. The second is multicultural services (coaching, training, and consulting) for corporations and the public sector. The third is a kind of clearing house / platform for East-West relations and with a PGM (Post Graduate Management) annex for international managers. Immunization: The company is immunized when Ive implemented what Ive noted in my preventive strategy. How can I benefit from this wild card?: I think its the same as was mentioned under scenario A.
Reactive measures
Short-term: Wrap up the existing business; run an in-depth analysis of the reasons why this happened. Mid-term: Get up and try again, but with a better concept integrating what I noted in the preventive strategy. And why not write a book? Lessons learnt: Dont put all your eggs in one basket. Establish the company on several diversified pillars.
JOHNS WILD CARD ANALYSIS

Wild card: Insider trading is discovered at my bank by a journalist Consequences on my life: This is really bad. The journalists have long had me in their sites, but up until now they havent found any dirt. Now theyve finally got some. For me, that would be immediate resignation of all my interior and exterior functions at the bank. Also, Id be subjected to an investigation by the securities commission and the police. Id have to account for all my comings and goings and provide details of my private life. There would be law suits filed against those involved as well as me. My reputation would be ruined in a single blow.
Preventive measures
To avert the wild card: If it happens, then its already too late. However, if nothing has not yet happened, I can take the following measures; multiple audits of those employees who are not used to working together, Random audits of traders and their behavior by management, communicate the risks through a company-wide campaign, diffusing information and description of insider trading and what could be interpreted as such, diffusing information about the risks and consequences (penalties, sentences), reports on insider trading and their penal consequences at other financial institutions, in order to maintain a high degree of vigilance, and rewards for whistle-blowers who suspect insider trading. Immunization: Here are all the aversion strategies. I dont know if any single one will succeed, so its prudent to implement multiple strategies. Be honest and trustworthy in your work, and be open to the press. Be in constant contact with the securities commission, and ensure that we are in complete compliance with the very latest directives. How can I benefit from the wild card: Distance ourselves from those whose behavior is not ethically correct with respect to financial transactions.
Reactive measures
Short-term: Damage control such as reimburse victims, claim insurance, fire those responsible, honesty and openness with respect to the press and the securities commission, and in no case try to hide anything. Medium-term: Regain the trust of our clients, partners, public opinion, and the securities commission, by reacting swiftly and appropriately in a transparent manner. I could eventually go a step further, by demanding that our traders be subject to even stricter rules than those required by law.
Lessons learnt
Never be too sure of yourself, and never let down your guard in every way. Anticipate the possible and the impossible or as they say, Even the most stupid things are not excluded.
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE WILD CARD ANALYSIS The most difficult thing here is to confront those things which are eminently disagreeable. Who wants to imagine that such an unwelcome event could happen? How are we to react? You neednt only imagine the worst possible catastrophes which could happen. When we take out a life insurance policy to protect our
family in case of death, doing so doesnt mean that were obligated to obsess about our mortality. Sometimes its useful to ask the following question, Whats the worst possible thing that could happen to me? When I struck out on my own, I asked this question within the framework of my personal scenarios. The answer was and still is today, an accident, an illness, or some sort of handicap which might keep me from fulfilling my mission and earning a living. Thats why I took out various insurance policies, and continue to take precautions. That has influenced my behavior. For example, I travel much less now by car than I did before in order to minimize the risks of a car accident. Moreover, I try to lead a healthy life. Of course, that doesnt guarantee me eternal health, but it does allow me to reduce the possibility of illness, particularly those over which I have some preventive control. The same thing goes for questions such as, How will you pay the mortgage when one of the co-signers to the loan loses their job? and What would happen in case of divorce? These questions must be asked. Of course, youre going to have to settle your emotional problems, but all the other aspects such as; organizational, financial, and economic must be imagined in the form of, What would happen if? Like the military strategists recommend, If you want your soldiers to keep a cool head during battle, you best train them in advance. This is also good advice for those agreeable and not-so-agreeable events which unavoidably happen in life. If you follow this advice, youll find that despite the emotional stress, youll be in a much better position to manage a crisis when it comes.
Step 8: Scenario Transfer
Thinking in and by itself never accomplishes the task; you must also have a goal in mind and take action. Aristotle
The goal of the eighth step is to synthesize all of the various knowledge that youve gained throughout the previous steps. The best metaphor is an outrigger boat or trimaran, which consists of a hull and two outriggers. Why such a metaphor? These boats were developed to be used in the high seas of Polynesia. The outriggers were the best solution to stabilize the boat in rough seas. Thus, the Polynesians were able to traverse any sea, despite the weather. Ideas which are applicable to both scenarios A and B, belong to the hull, while ideas which are particular to scenario A or B, belong to that particular outrigger. During this phase, its important that you carry with you as many possible strategies and ideas in the hull of your boat. If you carry on in a strictly mechanical way, Im afraid, this wont work. If a brilliant strategy conceived within the framework of scenario A is not included in scenario B, then you must re-examine it. You have to ask yourself if such a brilliant idea could eventually be possible in scenario B in a modified form. Then we can establish a robust master guideline, or a program of strategies, or whatever name we choose to give it. This master guideline must be able to
direct us along our chosen path, even among stormy weather to return to the metaphor of the boat. Carolines master guideline
Strategies only consistent with scenario A Strategies possible within the frameworks of both scenarios Short to Medium Term Studies Ill spend at least 4 semesters in two different countries in Eastern Europe. Hopefully, Ill be able to find an internship abroad. Beforehand, Ill research what lifes like there via penpals during my vacation. Strategies only consistent with scenario B
Concentrate on my studies and internships in Asia
Concentrate on my studies and internships in Southern Europe
Languages Im going to perfect my English and then apply to programs and internships in Hong Kong and Sydney. Ill continue to learn Spanish and depending on my scenarios, Ill learn a third language. My other competencies Networking Im going to get some training in human relationship management and networking in order to take full advantage of the contacts at my university.
Portuguese or Italian as a third language.
THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 131 Marketing Ill do an internship at a reputable company in France or abroad and then Ill immediately apply for an internship abroad in marketing, public relations, sales, sponsorship, or market research. Long-term In the long-term, I would like to work abroad. To this end, Ill choose countries where there is more equality between the sexes. Another criterion will be sufficient infrastructure for families if I decide to have a family there. Activities outside of my studies, internships and professional life Ill get involved in student networks which will provide me contacts for my professional future. Ill create a network of colleagues in order to exchange knowledge between students in Asia and Europe and associate with an existing network. Ill take advantage of my vacation time to get to know others in the network and familiarize myself with the cultures and people of my various places of interest.
Multi-generational family co-operation at work and at home.
Try new forms of communal living arrangements
WHAT IS THE FOLLOWING STEP? Ideas and strategies sound impressive, but do they agree with you mission and your vision, or do they elicit a completely different vision or mission. Furthermore, you need to verify which values are at stake; what are the strengths which support the master guideline; and above all what are the weaknesses which encumber it. In Carolines case, heres the result: The mission that she had given herself to better the world, in her own little way, is perfectly compatible with their master guideline. Her vision, notably that people should remember her as someone warm and amiable, and that she should have done something good for humanity, is equally compatible with her master guideline. During a discussion with her friend Marie, she completed her vision by adding the following aspect, contribute to intercultural understanding in the worlds of business and humanitarian organizations. Her master guideline allows Caroline to realize her values, such as sincerity and a sense of justice and respect for the environment. Shell need to remember this master guideline from time to time, especially when she makes important decisions. When we examine her master guideline with her strengths, we observe that all of her strengths could help her during her journey. Its a bit more difficult with her weaknesses; impatience, lack of concentration, and her lack of endurance could foil her journey. Thats why its important that she speak with her friend Marie once a month, to review potential problems. If they are unable to do it alone, they can also call upon the coach at their university. Caroline thinks that this scenario process has opened her eyes for the first time to the importance of international studies, particularly for her career, but also with respect to her relationships.
She summarizes her mantra as follows; those who think on a national scale only have no place in the future Europe. MARTINS MASTER GUIDELINE The previous steps have clearly shown Martin what he wants to do and how that could work in various situations. Martin then makes a synthesis of the previous steps in the form of an action plan, but without first having checked it against his original vision and mission defined earlier in step one.
My vision: To be someone who leads others in ambitious projects and gives them the capacities to implement them. My mission: Make the impossible possible. My objective: The realization of a new professional challenge according to my vision and mission. Short and Medium-term Im going to implement a double or even triple-edged strategy concerning my professional future. First, Im going to apply to companies throughout Europe which interest me the most particularly airplane, motorcycle, and pleasure boat manufacturers as a project manager, innovation manager, or service, marketing or sales manager. My parallel strategy consists of preparing myself for an independent entrepreneurial activity. In this respect, I think I could be a management consultant, or be a business coach on innovation management, project management, or anything to do with managing business crises or difficult situationsa firefighter of sorts. Given my experience, I could offer these services to a wide variety of industries. I could start with mechanical engineering because they know me and Ive already made a name for myself, all the while soliciting clients elsewhere in other industries. Then theres the third strategy that Ive been thinking about since we did the wild card analysis. The strategy is to take the family to the United States. Of course, I need to discuss it with my wife first. There are some positive aspects to having lost my job. For example, I could arrange things quite easily to leave for the US. There, Id have a better chance to work in aerospace, yacht, or motorcycle manufacturing. I think itd be pretty easy to make contacts there with the help of professional associations, international headhunters, and my vast international network of friends and associates. Other Competences: Languages: First, Im going to spend my free time perfecting my English in order to be at a sufficiently high level to negotiate and
134 / THERE IS ALWAYS AN ALTERNATIVE transact business. That means: watching TV shows in English, books, newspapers and magazines, and of course, video games in English for the kids. Soft skills: my objective is to perfect my facilitation skills. To this end, Ill use the remaining professional education credits which are owed to me to do management training. Ive already chosen several seminars in English rather than German, so this will allow me to kill two birds with one stoneincrease my skills and improve my English. Long-term I would like to do those things in the long-term which make me happy and which correspond to my mission. I will no longer accept a job based upon a single criterion such as good salary. I want to make my mission impossible possible either as an independent consultant, or working in my preferred industries here in Europe or in the United States. Before I do anything, I have to discuss these ideas with my family and take into consideration what they think. The time for solitary decisionmaking and personal ambition is over, especially when it comes to issues affecting the well-being of the family.
Ariane provides some feedback to Martin and leads him back to step 1. Ariane asks Martin how his plan of action is compatible with his strengths and weaknesses. Martins strengths seem to all correspond to his professional life. As for his weaknesses, he admits that he still has quite a few deficiencies. His impatience, his often inopportune severity, his aggressiveness, his arrogance, and his inability to properly delegate work could conspire to trip him up. Therefore, its a good idea that Ariane and Martin regularly monitor his behavior and his progress. If I had to summarize this Foresight exercise and the loss of my job in a single sentence, Id say that; Ive finally gained my independence from my former company, and I can now see all the new and exciting opportunities that exist for me and my family. The best part is that I now know exactly what I need to do next in order to give my vision the kiss of life. Martin rejoices. SAMIRAS MASTER GUIDELINE The scenario work has convinced Samira that her new company can have a bright future under both scenarios.
My vision (and that of my company): Be the leading coach for those who want to succeed in the Middle East. My mission: be a bridge between men and women, and between different cultures My action items: I will start immediately with a market analysis for the kind of service I can offer. This will help me to clarify target groups, their needs, and the services my company can offer. I will check all my networks and strengthen links with those whose values are consistent with my mission and my values system. This means that I have to select very carefully the head-hunters with whom I cooperate; because some of them have a dubious reputation. The next step is to clearly outline my objectives, my strategies and my business plan. Now I want to continue with the content. My future company will be based on the following Strategic Business Units: 1.) A unit for women: - This comprises professional coaching services for girls beginning at high school and throughout their professional career. - A professional coaching, training and improvement service where women will be prepared for ambitious jobs. - A mediation service for families and couples. 2.) An international unit: - A clearinghouse for East-West relationships based in Muscat (this is consistent with our mission that Oman be the voice of moderation in the Middle East) - A PGM for managers who want to run multicultural companies. - A multicultural training, consulting and coaching service for private and public clients. - An international exchange program with universities and international corporations in order to create a better mutual understanding. 3.) Top HR services in cooperation with head-hunters: - Recruiting services specialized for jobs in Oman and later for the Middle East and beyond. - A business school and recruiting platform for the Gulf States.
I think that is a lot and now I have to go to work because this shouldnt be a paper tiger, but a prosperous new company.
Wait a second, my dear Miss impatience, and lets have a check with your vision, mission and value system, outlined in Step 1 interrupts Khaled. Lets check my guideline with my value system; here youve got a point. When I go for these strategies, then the family will be secondary, but I will not forget them and I stick to my family values, honesty (very important for my new company); I dont see so much conflict there. But, Khaled, even you must admit, that this Master Guideline fulfils perfectly my mission to help people to grow and to develop personally. Furthermore, I can help to transform Oman into a modern, competitive economy, respecting its traditional values. And the vision I described at the beginning of the process is also perfectly in line with my new company; you remember the great achievements in private and professional life. Samira is excited and happy; finally she has found her real vocation. But now the real work starts interrupts Khaled. You have to prepare your new company, make the business plan, get financial support or start with a small unit, and dont forget your husband and the rest of the family. Try to convince them to support you. A severe family conflict or a divorce would be the worst in that situation. What you need is a sound network supporting you and not trouble at home. Thank you so much Khaled, you are a wonderful coach and maybe I will have a job for you in my new company. But before I will accompany you and help you whenever you need your friend and coach says Khaled with a warm smile.
JOHNS MASTER GUILDELINE John wants to try something out of the ordinary and has created a synthesis of what he had learnt from his action plan. Nomonde tentatively agrees to indulge him. Johns master guideline now focuses on the following question, What will be my next initiative?
THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 137 Ive always considered myself a good intermediarya mediator or sorts. Thats why Ive always imagined that Id be really good at bridging the often large gap between capitalism and social action. That includes giving conferences, and then eventually on-site courses and public seminars, but also publishing articles on-line and in journals. Another theme will be, how to create a win-win situation by reconciling the real and virtual worlds. My target clients will be seniors who are not as adept at navigating the virtual world as the younger generation is. Again, this has reciprocal benefits because on one side it provides work to retired IT professionals, and on the other side it allows seniors to learn about new technologies. Heres the charter of my Institute for Finance and Management which will be created both virtually and physically, and will have the following missions. - Prepare young managers in finance for their future responsibilities in an ever globalized and complex world. - Be a clearing-house for financial and economic ethics, in cooperation with national centers throughout the world. - Be a think-tank for economic and financial issues. - Offer coaching services on balancing private and professional life for financial managers. - Be a mediator and generator of synergies amongst cultures; for example what can we learn from other cultures and how can we transform this knowledge into synergies. The following theme is quite important for meparticularly as it relates to my private life with Giuliana. Ive made a concrete decision not make the same mistakes in my third marriage as I made in my first and second. Currently, Im quite conscious of my wifes needs. Im going to propose to Giuliana that Italy be our principal household, and that we only maintain a pied-a-terre in London. I can be her coach when she needs it, and furthermore when Im not spending time with Giuliana, I can enjoy my work at the Institute for Finance and Management.
With that setup, Ill be completely aligned with my mission and my vision...even you have to admit that. John remarks. I didnt say a critical word. Nomonde replies. Im more interested in your implementation and when you intend to discuss it with Giuliana. Sure, I really enjoy announcing my decisions to her it shows that I take her seriously as my wife, as a human being, and as a business woman. Honestly, in the beginning, I would never have believed you if you would have told me that I would end up deciding to move to Italy to be a part-time and
remote coach for young executives entering the world of finance. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR STEP EIGHT This is the most critical step in the entire process, as its here that we make our decisions, either to transform our thoughts into action, or just let it drop. Here, the coach or friend who accompanies us throughout the process can be instrumental in reminding us to think about implementation, encouraging us when we get tired, and helping us break through any impasses. The coach, friend, or mentor also plays the role of devils advocate if we procrastinate or when it comes time to implement our ideas. Each protagonist must create an action plan (a series of actions) which corresponds to their master guideline. Another good technique is to make each protagonist write a series of letters to him or herself describing exactly what they must do at each phase of implementation and by what date these goals must be achieved. Then, the coach sends these letters every three to six months in order to remind the protagonist what he or she has committed to do. Whats left to do now? The most important question is the following; where is this voyage leading me? Which scenario (alternative) or combination of alternatives might happen? The answer to that question is not only interesting, but also allows us to better adapt our plans, and to take advantage of possible future evolutions. To this end, we take a look at the strategies and ideas which are grouped under outriggers A and B, and we integrate them into the hull of the boat.
HOW TO MANAGE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS THOUGHOUT THE PROCESS
We dont need to predict the future, but simply let it happen Antoine de SaintExupry
The conditions for a successful process with or without a coach For learning purposes, the four protagonists in this book are presented with the coaches so that you may avoid some of the common traps. Certainly, many of you will undertake this process without the help of a coach. For the best results however, I recommend that you ask a friend to accompany you in this excursion towards the future. Ideally, you can both undertake this exercise and mutually encourage one another by alternating between coach and coachee. However, if you prefer to work with a professional coach, choose someone who has experience working both with individuals, and with the scenario method. There are plenty of good therapists who are experienced working one-on-one with their clients, but lack sufficient understanding of Foresight. If you follow this method with a professional coach or a friend who assumes the role of a coach, he or she must remember to remain neutral and keep a certain psychic distance. Furthermore the coachs role is to make sure that you dont avoid responding to questions sincerely and completely. During the entire process, you must always bear in mind that you will be confronted by questions which are out of the ordinaryin other words those to which you are not normally used to replying,
or by tasks that youre not used to doing. Its quite possible that you wont be able to reply straight away, and that you may need a few days to think it over. The coach or friend can be very useful here by insisting that you answer. The coachs role is to ask open questions, while avoiding suggestive or loaded questions. The only exception to this rule is during step 1 when the coach may comment on the protagonists strengths and weaknesses. It is also recommended to create minutes of the process, including all the intermediary results, so that youll have a permanent record. Furthermore, this will allow you to pick up where you left off if you have to leave the process for whatever reason. This proves to be particularly useful at the end of each future-oriented stepthats to say each time you reach a stage where decisions have been made. Also, its interesting to go back and rediscover what your vision of the future was several years hencewhat alternatives did you enumerate, and what assumptions did you make, which were correct, and which were wrong. Several years ago, I went through the entire process for myself, enumerating various personal and professional scenarios. As I like to do with others, I cast several provocative challenges. To generate creative ideas, I wrote the following in one of my scenarios, traditional consulting no longer exists and consulting services have been replaced by intelligent platforms and robots In my consequence analysis, I developed several ideas which were to complement classical consulting with other services, such as on-line learning services, and coaching and consulting in developing countries. The idea that traditional consulting would be replaced by intelligent platforms really disturbed me, even more so since I am someone who is usually overflowing with ideas and I was unable to come up with any viable alternatives. Some years later, the University of Sophia Antipolis, in the south of France, invited me to participate in an e-learning project. I accepted and observed that this particular occasion corresponded exactly to how I imagined working as a virtual consultant would be like. Its there that I realized that the methods which I had been applying up until then were no longer valid in a virtual
HOW TO MANAGE PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE PROCESS / 141
context and needed to be radically modified or even reinvented altogether. I enthusiastically began redefining my methods. The process was very fruitful and I created an entirely new set of methods applied to virtual consulting. The moral of the story is that you must remain open to radical change. Such changes allow us to discover new elements which both stimulate thought and heighten enthusiasm. Dont let yourself be discouraged by pessimists who might try to tell you that the future will only get worse. Think about Paul Watzlawick whos refrain is theres a silver lining in every dark cloud, and making an effort to find the silver lining is worth the trouble. If you follow his advice, youll discover new worlds theretofore unknown. Lack of time The title of this section will probably make you laugh. It seems to me that a lack of time is one of the plagues of our era everything is evolving quicker and quicker, and we simply cant keep up with all the changes. Now, at the risk of offending you, allow me to remind you that if you find that time is lacking, it simply means that your priorities are not straight. Think about it, even the busy manager who is constantly complaining about being overloaded, always finds time for a round of golf. Why? Because for him, golf is very important. Not only is playing golf a pleasant escape from the office, but also an opportunity to make contacts and maybe even cut some deals in a relaxed setting. In any case, were all like this golf-loving manager, if something is important to us we find time, and we neglect the rest. If the football game is important to a certain someone and lunching with her friend is important to a certain other, theyll both find the time to do those things. Same holds true for yoga, judo, golf, sailing, flying, or diving. We never have a hard time finding time to do those things which we love. If you find yourself complaining that you dont have time to do such and such a thing, it simply means that it is not a priority for you. Those things which are important to you always manage to find a slot in your calendar.
The argument that you dont have enough time to do this exercise is bunk. Of course, its not always that simple. We still have to schedule the appropriate time to fully engage in the exercise. Here are a few tips thatll keep you from giving up when the going gets tough. Manage organizational problems Give yourself the required time from the beginning to undertake the process from start to finish, plus a little extra time for unexpected hang-ups. Dont fool yourself into thinking that you can complete this process in a single weekend. Anticipate taking two days plus a week-end. That may seem like a lot of days, but youre unlikely to be able to work from dawn to dusk each day, as you may have family and other obligations. If youre able to work undisturbed and without interruption, all the better. However, if you allocate too little time for this exercise, youll be stressed and unproductive. So, give yourself ample time and relax. Making sure youre not bothered during the process. Here are two ways to ensure the peace: Check into a bed-and-breakfast, or a mountain chalet, or sit on your boat or some other place where you wont be bothered by your family, friends, colleagues, or neighbors. One of the conditions for success is to cut yourself off from all communication, particularly; cell phones, internet, email, Skype, and every other form of insidious accessibility. If you stay at home, make sure that you clearly define the ground rules concerning when, how, and under what conditions you may be reached. Retire to your office or a guest room which is offlimits to other members of the family for a weekend. If you live alone, creating these conditions is obviously much easier. If youre not inclined to the chalet idea, the best solution would still be to steal away to a friends house or apartment. The change of scenery will do you some good insofar as itll stimulate your imagination and allow you to think differently. Furthermore, your comings and goings are easier to manage than at home because there is less pressure to excuse yourself and less guilt about shirking family responsibilities.
If I had to rank the above situations according to their effectiveness, the first would be the chalet, second would be the friends or coachs place, and third would be home. Self-discipline: What good is cutting yourself off from all communication if every three hours you check your email and voice messages to make sure that nothing terribly important is waiting for you? Get real. The world wont begin to spin backwards if you fail to reply to a message or email within a few hours. Quite the contrary. Those with whom you have regular contact will quietly respect you if you simply tell them that you wont be available from such time to such time. Inner peace: Yes, you need that too. You are about to undertake the most important voyage of your life, plunging the deepest depths of your consciousnessthere is no greater adventure. Thats why you need peace and quiet, but also patience with yourself and courage. Inner peace is important because you will surely be knocked off kilter during the process. The questions you are about to ask yourself are not all pleasant, and the answers even less. Serenity: Up until now, youve more or less been able to manage your life. Now youre about to begin a process which requires learning. This process is demanding and if you approach it with stress and anxiety, the chances that youll end up with resolutions which will change the orientation of your life in any meaningful way are slim. Patience: We sometimes get the impression that this virtue is disappearing. Who still demonstrates patience...with themselves, with others, or even with the circumstances of their life? Throughout the process, you must demonstrate patience with yourself because its often the case that you wont find the answers right away. You may need some time to think about the questionseven if it means sleeping on them before moving on. Courage: Though all your faculties may be engaged, and you have meticulously prepared yourself for your voyage with logic and coherence, if you lack courage at the last moment, your airplane will not leave the runway, rather you will abort before having even begun. You require courage to head off towards terra incognita while leaving the familiar behind. Only with courage can we discover new worlds.
How to overcome methodological difficulties Even when we are able to manage all the organizational challenges and we have begun the process itself, procedural difficulties may still arise. This happens from time to time, but its not a show-stopper. First of all, dont panic and keep a cool head. If youre confronted with procedural difficulties, then go back and reread the case studies of Caroline, Martin, Samira, and John corresponding to the step in question. That may help you get unstuck. However, if that doesnt work seek the counsel of your coach or friend. Another method consists of just plowing ahead. What do you have to lose, except time...and you have everything to gain. The experience that youll gain is quite possibly important for your personal growth. So, imagine your future and the process with courage there is always an alternative. This is not an exam, but rather something important for your life. Dont forget, you are the CEO of your life, and no one can replace you in this role, or rather in this mission. Youre the only one who can and must succeed at planning your future. Good luck with your task. Dont forget that there will be trials (no one gets it right the first time) and its quite possible that your mistakes will ultimately lead you to more profound answers. In the world of science, we all know that false hypotheses or erroneous assumptions often lead to revolutionary discoveries (the famous apple which fell on Newtons head or the ring shape of the benzole molecule). So, dont be afraid to be wrong...the moment you recognize your errors, you will have learnt some more lessons for the future. Boost your creativity Problems concerning a lack of creativity are particularly important. What should you do if, just when you need it the most, your creativity is lacking. Its useless to get discouraged and try to convince yourself that youre just not a creative person, or worse abandon the process altogether. Here are a few tricks to help you increase your creativity.
First of all, you must know your creativity pattern. Are you a visual type, auditory, kinesthetic, olfactory, or gustative? Most of you wont have a clue how to respond to this question. In order to identify your creativity pattern, I invite your to do the following quick exercise. Dont fearit wont take long. Find a comfortable place to sit and try to remember the last time that you were really creative. Try to remember a situation where no one but you was able to resolve a problem, or where you were particularly brilliant. It could have been in a professional situation or in your private lifethe principle being that you had found a particularly shrewd and creative solution. You may not find one right away. Take your time and dig deep into your subconscious mind. Then, forget about it and do something else for awhile like listening to music, dancing, or cleaning your crawlspace, fixing something, gardening, exercising, cooking, walking the dog, or whatever gives you pleasure. While you indulge in this pleasurable activity, you distract your conscious mind, however your subconscious is busy trying to find an answerits comparing all the various creative situations against the sensory perceptions; visual, auditory, kinesthetic, olfactory, and gustative. Then, all of a sudden, the answer will come to mind while youre positioning your drill, pruning the flowers, making dinner, or jogging. Eureka, I found it. You wont even know how, but suddenly, the memory of your greatest creative endeavor will come to mind. Now that you have the situation in mind, try to relive the moment when you had this spark of intuitive genius. Where were you? Were you inside? If so, where? Were you in a natural setting? Alone or with others (many or few?) or with your dog or your cat? What did you see at that moment? What inspired you then, and what did your memory record? An image? An animal? If so, which? Did you hear the chirping of birds and the buzzing of insects, or perhaps you heard the freeway breathing as the cars passed by. If so, what? What did you feel in your gut at that moment? Were you excited because you were getting ready to go to the theatre or to meet someone dear? What smells surrounded you when you had your flash of brilliance? Perhaps the smell of coffee or fresh bread? The perfume of a certain
flower, or of a particular person? What taste did you have in your mouth at the time? Were you drinking or eating something at the time? If so, what? Its important to remember all the sensory perceptions that you had between 10 minutes before the brilliant solution came to mind up until the appearance of the idea itself. Record your perceptions on paper. Now, take a look at what youve done. This is obviously not a scientific demonstration. To corroborate your findings, consider another flash of creative brilliance and treat it the same way. If youre having fun and youre so inclined, try to find a third situation. Each time, its important to note the sensory perceptions of the events as they unfolded in detail in order for this method to work. We call this method modeling. Now, compare your notes. Youll find that its always that same sensory stimulation that activates your creativity. So, the next time you want to kick-start your creativity, reproduce the settings and situations in which your creative juices were flowing. Lets move from the abstract to the concrete, and allow me to describe the perceptions which stimulate my own creativity. While I was writing this book and constantly in need of creative ideas, I employed the following techniques to stimulate my creativity, which helps me in all situations when I need to be creative. I stray far from my office and my computer. I stand in front of one of my favorite paintings (very modern, abstract, and multi-colored) and I become absorbed in the art. Doing so, I completely forget the task at handthis book for example. I look at the colors and the forms and I literally allow myself to be transported into the image, which provokes several sensations such as; lying on the beach in summer, the noise of waves crashing on the shore, the warm sensation of sun rays on my skin, etc. That lasts about 10 or 15 minutes. At the end of about 15 minutes max, the first creative ideas start to come to mind. Then I go back to my computer to record what I had experienced, or I sketch, doodle, and draw if words are inadequate.
When this technique proves ineffective, I go to my garden where I weed and prune. In my garden, I forget my office work and Im absorbed in the sensual experience of gardeningthe abundant colors, the smells, and forms consume all of my attention. The only worries I have while gardening are those related to my garden such as; I need to prune the Cyprus hedges, dig there, plant here, fertilize the mandarin tree, trim the palm tree, do the weeding there, etc. I completely forget that only a few minutes ago, I was sitting in front of my computer racking my brain for an evasive solution. Then suddenly, the ideas tumble out from I dont know where. I drop my gardening tools and run back into my office where I immediately record my ideas. If I dont want to garden, or its too cold, or its raining (In the south of France where I live, we can always find a pretext to avoid doing something), I resort to the activity preferred by my doga long and beautiful walk in nature, combined with jogging, and a game of fetch the toy. If my dog and I have already done our walk and its nighttime, I use my best joker and play classical music like; Beethoven, Brahms, Mendelsohn-Bartholdy, Rachmaninoff, and Tchaikovsky. Before I put the CD in the player, I already have the melody in my head which is the one I need to ignite my creativity. My music helps me not only at night, but at any time during the day. One last thing inspires me. As an olfactory person, I like pleasant smells, such as the frankincense that I burn as I write this book. Whenever I travel to the Middle East, I always bring new frankincense back home with me. Smells have a way of triggering certain memories for me. Sometimes friends joke that my office smells like a church, but I dont mind because frankincense is among the most powerful triggers for my creativity. Obviously, you dont have to follow my examples I can already hear comments like, but I hate gardening! or Beethoven, yuck. or incense makes me ill. It doesnt matter which rituals you do to inspire your creativity, as long as they work for you. I have my own creativity rituals, and you will most certainly have your own that you must discover for
yourself. You may need to try out various situations and adapt them to your habits. Sometimes, music doesnt boost my creativity, but simply makes me nervousa piano concerto which inspired me yesterday disturbs me today because now I just need some peace and quiet. So, youre going to need to experiment and adapt these creativity-boosting techniques to your habits. If you allow your intuition to guide you, then you will certainly be inspired to be more creative. Id like to digress now on the subject of setting and the role it plays in creativity. We have already seen how modeling certain perceptual conditions can help stimulate creativity. You shouldnt forget that as much as certain settings can stimulate creativity, others can obstruct it. The room in which you work, think, and stimulate your creativity must be a comfortable setting that satisfies the conditions you set for yourself. Obviously, conditions for inspiring creativity will be adapted to you. Try posting pleasant photographs around the room, such as those of you with your family or partner on vacation or doing something fun. Each time you look at such a photo, youll relive the joyous or relaxing moment. These photos will serve as a resource; theyll create some psychic distance from your current challenges, and jumpstart your creativity. Remember, you are responsible for creating this ideal setting, despite what others may think. Those who love green plants will be more creative in a setting with lots of plants. The setting you create will be your creativity lab, and only you can determine the most appropriate mix of furniture, clutter, and decor. You associate certain emotions with certain objects. So, dont work in a room with the precious chest bequeathed to you by your wicked aunt who you cant stand. As Im typing these words, I cant help but notice the objects arrayed in my office. The oil paintings are those of my favorite painter from St. Paul who has also become a good friend. I also took great care in choosing the sofa, armchair, and rug which are all works of art in their own right. The fountain, the Buddha statue, and the lamps are all objects which have unique histories and are each associated with good memories. The photograph of
my late mother shows her dressed in sportswear at age 76, svelte, sporty, and full of energy and joy for lifethis corresponds to the memory I had of her. When I think about her, I see a fit and strong woman; and when I need some creative inspiration, she gives me exceptional courage and strength. Those are numerous pillars around me which support and inspire my imagination. My creativity lab would not be complete without the stereo system for listening to my music, nor my plants not only green plants, but also flowers. A single flower yields so much; its color, its perfume and its beauty all inspire me. Everything in my office has its place and I like to keep it tidy and I always have some space on my desk for a flower. Id like to add a few words on organization and tidiness. I can already hear the grumblings of my readers who believe that chaos is part of the creative process. The adage that the sage knows how to manage chaos, while the feeble-minded require order, may lead you to think a little disorder may do you some good. The ancient Chinese art of Feng Shui dictates that the first step towards shaping a successful life is cleaning, arranging, and discarding. That may seem banal to you, but as with much practical, good advice, it reflects the truth. Take a look around your room. Is there an old armoire that youve neglected and which is full of useless junk? Take this opportunity to clean and tidy your setting. Start by sorting things into the following categories; toss, give-away (to the Salvation Army or other charitable organization), and keep. The Chinese also say that we should give away any item of clothing that we havent worn for one year (except for those reserved for special occasions). The same rule applies for kitchen appliances, tools, games, etc. If you follow this rule, youll free up a lot space to arrange things neatly in your closet and on your shelves, or wherever you decide to store things. Enjoy your new Zen space. Furthermore, this relatively empty space should be kept uncluttered because it reflects our state of mind, and we are able to approach new situations with a sense of openness to possibility.
Now, how do you feel deep down inside after having uncluttered your space? You should observe the following; you will feel more at ease, lighter, joyful, and agileas if someone has just lifted a heavy burden off your shoulders. Now you should have a clear head and the proper state of mind to approach problems with creativity, especially if youre cleaning and arranging took place in your office. The lost art of Spring cleaning has more to do with spiritual purification and the beginning of new things, than any sort of obsessional cleaning or concern for material possessions. Thats why I strongly recommend that you tidy your office, or the place you intend to work, before launching into the Foresight process. Youll be in a much better position to tackle the challenging work ahead. When I see offices with piles of papers stacked up to the ceiling, I feel oppressed and Im completely incapable of creative thought. Remember that your environment reflects your state of minddo you really want your head to be cluttered with all that superfluous junk which now occupies your office? We all know that we cant always be hyper-productive or hypercreative, whether in a work or domestic setting. Everyone has their lows and highs which correspond to their natural physiological cycles. We also know that no one is capable of creative thinking after a heavy meal. Therefore, you need to discover when is the most opportune and productive time. Morning people are more productive in the AM, whereas night people are more productive after 5PM. Try to determine the time of day when you are the most productive and the most creative. This knowledge, along with modeling those sensations which stimulate your creativity, will help you enormously to boost your creative potential. Heres some advice with respect to discovering your preferred sensations; visual, auditory, kinesthetic, etc. Most people alive today react, to a large extent, to visual stimuli. This is due to the constant barrage of images to which we are all subjected on a daily basis in the media. Cell phones and PDAs are good examples of this, and simply could not function without the
support of a visual interface. If you belong to this visual category, you already know how to stimulate your creativity. You can use paintings, pictures, films, and even video games. If youre a rather contemplative visual type, consider looking at a landscape, you may find that doing so produces the desired effect. If youre an auditory person, then youll probably need some music to stimulate your creativity. The question is; which type of music? Some people actually prefer noise to music. The noises may be natural such as; singing birds, leaves rustling in the trees, or the sound of falling water. Motorsports fans may enjoy the roar of a chopper bike, the vroom of a sports car, or the zoom of a jet engine. If you belong to the kinesthetic type, then youre going to need to get your hands dirty, and touch various textures and feel various temperatures. Those who are kinesthetic love to fix things and write with a penyou have to feel it to experience it. Then there are hybrids. If youre both visual and kinesthetic, then youll need to resort to activities which stimulate both, such as gardening mentioned above. Gardening will allow you to experience your garden with both sight and touchand youll be confronted by the sensations of silky flowers and prickly weeds. Those who enjoy jogging in the countryside, or manipulating a drill, also belong to this category. For those who are both auditory and kinesthetic, dancing to music is an excellent mix. Its up to you to chose the dance music which inspires you the most. Playing an instrument, either solo or in a band, may also stimulate your creativity. Those who are auditory and visual have a huge array of options to stimulate their imagination. High resolution video games consoles, and home cinemas are tailormade products for auditory-visual types. In all cases, its important to determine what stimulates you in particular. That which works perfectly for your best friend, may not work for you at all. So, listen to your intuition and let it guide you. All of the techniques mentioned above will help you be more creative and therefore succeed in your Foresight exercise. Nevertheless, creative thoughts sometimes require patience. What
should you do if youre blocked? First of all, dont panic. Take some time out and do something completely different. True creativity cant be forced to emerge under pressure. Quite the contrary, creativity favors good humor and the unburdened mind. There again, weve all heard the objections such as; Im only creative when Im under pressure with a deadline. That very well may be the case, but ask yourself honestly if the work you do under pressure is really of the highest quality, particularly in terms of finding creative solutions. You now know some excellent techniques for stimulating your creativity, which will empower you to traverse any impasse.
EPILOGUE
The man who never changes is mad. Georges Clemenceau
If you find the process outlined in this book too difficult or altogether overwhelming, you should offer it to a friend. Once your friend has read the book, then youll both be familiar with these techniques. Then, one of you can begin the process with the help of the othereveryone knows that a little peer pressure can be productive, for example, those who jog in a group do it more regularly than those who jog alone. Coaching should be reciprocalif you receive good advice from your coach, then you should return the favor by coaching your former coach. When diving, we use the buddy system which consists of helping each other and performing safety-checks which cannot be done alone. You should try to find a buddy/coach with whom you can undertake this Foresight exercise. Imagine how much more fun it would be if you did it in parallel with your buddy. Also, the knowledge you gain from the exercise will be all the more profound with the aid a little healthy competition, plus the whole process will be altogether more fun. Now you have no more excuses. As Seneca rightly said, Its not because things are difficult that we dont dare try, but because we dont dare try that things are difficult. In this spirit, I wish you a highly productive and fruitful Foresight exercise, which will create an irresistibly compelling futureyou will see that itll happen all on its own.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Chopra, Deepak, The Seven Spiritual Laws of Success: A Practical Guide to the Fulfillment of Your Dreams. San Rafael, Calif: Amber-Allen Pub, 1994. Covey, Stephen R. The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People. New York: Simon & Schuster Sound Ideas, 1989. Dixon, Patrick. Futurewise: Six Faces of Global Change. London: HarperCollins Publishers, 1998. Gawain, Shakti. Creative Visualization. Berkeley, Calif: Whatever Pub, 1978. Godet, Michel. Creating Futures: Scenario Planning As a Strategic Management Tool. London: Economica, 2001. Bstan-dzin-rgya-mtsho (Dalai Lama XIV) and Grover Gardner. The Art of Happiness A Handbook for Living. Hampton, NH: Chivers Sound Library/Chivers North America, 1998. Marcus Aurelius, and Gregory Hays. Meditations. New York: Modern Library, 2002. Reibnitz, Ute von. Scenario Techniques. McGraw-Hill, 1988. (This book can only be ordered directly via the the authors website: www.scenarios-vision.com) Ringland, Gill. Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future. Chichester: Wiley, 1998. Watzlawick, Paul. How Real Is Real?: Confusion, Disinformation, Communication. New York: Random House, 1976. Watzlawick, Paul. The Situation Is Hopeless, but Not Serious: (the Pursuit of Unhappiness). New York: Norton, 1983.
Ute Hlne von Reibnitz: born in Trier, Germany, has been a consultant to business since 1982, a teacher, coach, and author. She specializes in both organizational and individual Foresight, and has clients around the world, particularly in Europe and the Middle East. In 1993, Hlne founded the consulting company SCENARIOS + VISION and currently lives in Vence in the South of France. For more information about the author, her company, and her work, see: www.scenarios-vision.com.

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There Is Always An Alternative

Discover And Shape Your Personal And Professional Future

Ute Hlne von Reibnitz

There Is Always An Alternative

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THE BENEFITS OF ANTICIPATION

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THE BENEFITS OF ANTICIPATION / 7

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PROCEDURES AND METHODS TO OVERCOME CRISES

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PROCEDURES AND METHODS TO OVERCOME CRISES / 11

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THE FUTURE FASCINATES AND FRIGHTENS

To be happy, all you have to do is accept the unforeseeable Jacques Salom

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A BRIEF HISTORY OF FORESIGHT

Fate assists only those who act. Sophocles

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A BRIEF HISTORY OF FORESIGHT / 17

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A BRIEF HISTORY OF FORESIGHT / 19

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JOURNEY TOWARDS THE FUTURE / 23

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JOURNEY TOWARDS THE FUTURE / 25

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JOURNEY TOWARDS THE FUTURE / 27

THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS

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THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 31

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THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 33

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THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 35

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THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 37

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Step 1: Task Analysis

THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 39

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THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 41

Where do I come from? What makes me who I am?

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What objectives do I pursue in order to fulfill my mission and realize my vision?

THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 43

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What does your wife appreciate in you most?

Where do I come from? What makes me who I am?

THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 45

What objectives do I pursue in order to fulfill my mission and realize my vision?

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THE FUTURE-ORIENTED PROCESS / 47

SAMIRAS RESPONSES Who am I?

And now Samira, tell me more about you, Khaled asks.

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Would you like to live in Europe? asks Khaled.

Where do I come from? What makes me who I am?

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What is my mission? What is the meaning of my life?

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What objectives do I pursue in order to fulfill my mission and realize my vision?

What strategies have I deployed to attain these objectives?