1.

0 INTRODUCTION
Research Topic: CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTAINABLE IMPACTS OF HYDROELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY IN MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES After reviewing the literature based on the research topic, the following research questions were formed: Research Questions: What are the climate parameters that have significant change that were brought about in the increase of greenhouse gases? What are the climate variables that resulted in the change of climate in the Philippines? What is the relationship in rising temperature and precipitation change due the climate change in the Philippines with Hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines? What is the effect of El Nino phenomenon with Hydroelectric Power generation in Mindanao, Philippines? What other factors aside from climate change and El Nino that can be considered as involved in the Power shortage supply in Mindanao, Philippines? Hypothesis: Climate Change in the Philippines affects the hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines. This type of hypothesis is a relational hypothesis since it will state the relationships between variables. The variables involved in climate change are the temperature and precipitation. Other variables are the temperature and precipitation change brought about by the El Nino phenomenon. An increase in temperature will increase evaporation; this will affect the water resources required in hydroelectric generation. Decrease in precipitation will also affect water slow therefore will affect also power supply in hydroelectric facilities. Hypothesis can be tested qualitatively because variables such as temperature and precipitation can be measured. Hydroelectric power output can also be quantified. After a second review of literatures a revised hypothesis was drawn:

Increase in temperature, decrease in precipitation and decrease river runoff due to climate change in the Philippines has a negative impact of the hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines. The potential impact of climate change on water resources can be shown in terms of variations in temperature and precipitation. There is a relationship between increased temperatures with variations in river runoff due to changes in precipitation. Studies show not only the effect on the river flows but also the impact on generation from hydroelectric stations. After selecting an appropriate research methods and selecting relevant data collection methods two hypotheses were made: Hypothesis 1: Increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation due to climate change in the Philippines will decrease river runoff. Hypothesis 2: Decrease river runoff has a negative impact of the hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines. In this research the procedure that will be used in describing or explaining climate change in the Philippines is by using change of temperature and precipitation. The capacity of the natural water resources used in Mindanao, Philippines in hydroelectric power generation can be assessed against projected climate change and variability. Quantitative research method will be applied that will primarily base on the measurement of change of temperature and precipitation consequently the estimates of river flow or river runoff. This research method will be based on simulation case studies; therefore, it will generally classify as quantitative research. Secondary historical climate data of change in temperature and precipitation from the Philippines government statistics website can be investigated to convert into primary date using regression analysis. To assess the effect of climate change, a model can be develop using this method to provide estimates of potential and actual evapotranspiration in terms of river runoff based on temperature and precipitation change. The effect of climate change on hydrogenation can then be determined by using the expected values for river runoff using the model taken from a case study.

The actual value of the hydropower generation output in Mindanao, Philippines will be taken from the government website. The selected data that will be used will be analysed using the model from a case study and the SPSS software to get the inter relationship of all the variables.

2.0 Overview of Research Hypotheses Verification 3.0 Overview of Research Data Validation 4.0 Research Source Data
Data are facts, figures and other relevant materials, past and present, serving as basis for study and analysis. The data serve as the bases or raw materials for analysis. Without an analysis of factual data, no specific inferences can be drawn on the questions under study. Data form the basis for testing the hypotheses formulated in this research. Data also provide the facts and figures required for constructing measurement and tables, which are analysed with statistical techniques. Inferences on the results of statistical, analysis and tests of significance provide the answers to research questions.

4.1 Secondary Source Data

For some research questions such as in this case, it is practical to use data collected earlier by other credible researchers or for other purposes than research which is an official statistics records kept routinely by a government organisation. By principle of being archived and made available, this type of primary data will serve as secondary data. In this research, the main sources of information are the official data archive which is the Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB). This is the gateway to official Philippine social and economic statistics. Although the actual measurement of the temperature, precipitation and other climate variables are done by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) (Melville & Goddard 1996). In this research the primary data is generated using regression analysis of secondary data taken from the Philippine government statistic website. Base of the research hypotheses the variables involve are temperature and precipitation. The following are historical climate data from previous statistical research.

Table 1 Historical Climate Data 1966-1982 (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d).

Table 2. Historical Climate Data 1983-1996 (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d).

With the increasing emission of greenhouse gases, their concentrations in the atmosphere also go up which, in turn, cause the temperature of the earth to rise. The rise in earths temperature, meanwhile, leads to changes in the patterns of precipitation and the sea level to rise. The changes in climate have adverse effects not only on our ecological and socioeconomic systems but on human health as well. Thus, there is a growing concern over various manifestations of climate changes like the pollution-induced global warming and the El Nio phenomenon (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d.). A study made by the NSCB in 1998 on the various climate data generated by PAGASA from 1966 to 1996 indicated a shift to a warmer climate. A close examination of the temperature in the Philippines from the period 1966 to 1996 revealed that from 1987 onwards, the average minimum temperatures recorded were higher than the normal minimum temperature of 22.95 degrees C, suggesting that the climate in the country is getting warmer. Similarly, the average mean temperature observed in the same period has not fallen below the normal mean temperature of 27.03 degrees C (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d). Other climate variables were tested in terms of the effect of El Nino covering the same period (1966-1996). Data on the various climate variables for the past three decades are given in Table 1 and Table 2. Annual data presented were obtained by averaging the data recorded by the different PAGASA stations located nationwide (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d.). The potential impact of climate change on water resources has been suggested since the 1980s, as work progressed on predicting climate change. Although Global Circulation Model (GCM) can be used to predict runoff directly, the coarse scale used means that this information is only useful for the most general studies. As a result, many studies have been carried out on individual basins, showing that river basins display a range of sensitivities to climate change. Figure 1 shows the response of a typical river basin to variations in precipitation and temperature. It can be seen that increased temperature results in non-linear variations in runoff due to changes in precipitation. Base on this

model, primary data which is the river runoff from change of temperature and change of precipitation from Table 1 and 2 can be derived. (Harisson, Whittington & Gundry n.d.) .

Figure 1

River Basin Response to Climate Change (Harisson, Whittington & Gundry n.d.)

In order to verify the hypotheses, a value of the hydropower generation output in Mindanao, Philippines should be used. This value will be taken from the government website. The Philippines has power electricity generating

capacity of 15.1 gigawatts (GW). The country generated 53.1 billion kilowatthours (Bkwh) of electricity in 2004, while consuming 49.4 Bkwh. The

Philippine electric power industry is composed into three main divisions which are generation, transmission and distribution. In spite of the natural disasters and the adverse impact of climate change, the performance of the power sector had developed. Mindanao hugely underwent the worst of the power shortage brought by El Nio Phenomenon as 50 percent of its electricity requirement mostly sourced from hydroelectric power facilities. Electric supply in this area was inadequate as water level in lakes and rivers all over the grid constantly below critical level.

Table 3 2010 and 2009 Comparative Power Generation in the Philippines (2010 Philippine Power Sector Situtationer, 2010)

4.2 Primary Source Data

Primary sources are original sources from which the researcher directly collects data that have not been previously collected. Primary data are first-hand information collected through various methods such as observation, interviewing, mailing etc(Graciano & Raulin 2004). In this research the primary data is generated using regression analysis of secondary data taken from the Philippine government statistic website. Base on the research hypotheses the variables involved are temperature and precipitation. Therefore, from these independent variables, change of river runoff can be derived using the model which is shown on table 4.

From Table 3 the average of the hydropower generation in Mindanao Philippines output was taken in order to get the true value corresponding with the change of temperature, change of precipitation and change of runoff.

5.0 Research Data Analysis 5.1 Secondary Data Analysis 5.2 Primary Data Analysis 6.0 Research Hypotheses Verification 6.1 Hypotheses Verification 6.2 Critique of Hypotheses 7.0 Research Data Validation 7.1 Statistical Analysis for Research Data Validation 7.2 Statistical Analysis for Research Data Reliability 8.0 Conclusion of Research Validation