Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
DEFINITION OF ORE
by
Kenneth F. Lane
Contents
Acknowledgements
x
Foreword
xi
Notation
xii
Summary
Chapter
1.
Introduction
1
Background; purpose of book; mining as a
staged process; the
Extraction stage; definition of ore as the
extracted material; cut-off grade criterion;
economic basis for determination; form of
presentation;
semantic
considerations;
significance of finite resource; cut-off criterion;
optimum cut-off grade policies; computer
application.
Chapter 2.
Economic Principles
6
Necessity to analyse the economic of a mining
operation; the concept of present value;
optimum cut-off grades maximise present
values; alternative criteria; importance of
capacities; effect of price variations; drawbacks
to most breakeven calculations; economic
definition of ore .
Chapter 3.
Finite Resources and Present Values
11
Formula for present value; dependence upon
time, resource remaining and operating
strategy; maximum surface and exploitation
tracks; optimum strategy tracks; algebraic
Chapter 5.
Limiting Economic Cut-Off Grades
27
Maximisting
present
values
with
one
component limiting; derivation off formulae for
mine, treatment and market limiting: balancing
cut-off grades; graphical illustrations; algorithm
for determination; other techniques.
Chapter 6.
Balancing Cut-Off Grafeds
34
More than one component limiting; effect of
cut-off grades on relative quantities of
mineralised material,
ore and mineral:
balancing cut-off grades; graphical illustration;
strategic and tactical significance.
Chapter 7.
Effective Optimum Cut-Off Grades
39
Choosing effective optimum from limiting
economic and balancing cut-off grades;
graphical
illustrations;
algorithm
for
determination; other techniques.
Chapter 8.
Economic Forecasts
46
Sources of price, cost and performance
forecasts: present value estimates; rate of
change of present value; realistic single price
movement
effect;
simple
typical
year
extrapolation; yearly data for determination of
complete cut-off policy; discount rates effects
of tax; discount rate as a parameter.
Chapter 9.
Mineralised Reserve Estimates
50
Source of information; grades presently
available from short term; plan; changing
grade distributions with time long term
planning and reserve estimation; operational
cut-off values; selectivity; inaccuracies in grade
measurement; conditional simulation; cut-off
application
at
extraction
stage,
not
development: plans in tonnages rather than
time; regularity of grade limits: consistency of
grade categories; grade distribution within
categories; parametric grades.
vi
Chapter 10.
Calculating a Complete Cut-Off
Policy
57
Determining a sequence of annual cut-off
grades; consistency of cash flows and present
values; iterating from initial present value
assumption; compiling present values; revising
initial estimates; computer programs.
Chapter 11.
62
Chapter 12.
The Effects of Inaccuracies in Grade
Control 66
Difficulties of measurement; predicted versus
actual grades; predicted grades parametric;
graphical illustration; variance reduction and
quality of grade estimation; effect on cut-off
grade policy.
Chapter 13.
Stockpiling Intermediate Grades
71
Stockpiling for later processing; added costs;
deteriorating
recoveries; optimum policy
complex but rarely crucial; estimation of
minimum stockpile grade; withdrawals when
cash flows are increased; derivation of
formulae; consideration to shorten calculations.
Chapter 14.
Planning Mine Expansions
77
Pressure to expand; increased output at
marginal capital cost; larger capacities imply
different cut-off grade policies; need to study
alternatives; incremental net present value
analysis; illustrative example; effect of
increases in scale.
vii
Chapter 15.
Designing New Mines
81
Conceptual planning; description of planning
process; importance of cut-off grade strategy;
deposit modeling; and grade estimation;
Chapter 16.
Deposits of Two Minerals
87
Single
mineral
equivalent
sometimes
satisfactory; invalid when one mineral has
limited marked; cut-off dependent upon two
variable; cut-off grade lines; formulae for
limiting economic cut-off grade lines; balancing
grades; optimisation by grid search technique.
Chapter 17.
Other Economic Models
93
Analysis not confined to basic models; many
other amenable to same techniques; a net of
tax evaluation, with formulae for S.A. tax;
varying mill recovery according to a simple
formula; a more complicated case with varying
throughputs; determination of optima by
calculus.
Appendix
Software for Cut-Off Grade Optimisation
98
History of development; areas of application;
specimen example with input files and output
tables; discussion of futures developments.
Case Study 1.
Underground Tin
106
Old mine. Remaining reserves in developed
stopes nearing exhaustion.
Analysis of
economic factors affecting closure decision.
viii
Case Study 2.
Underground Lead/Zinc
110
Established mine. Grades as zinc equivalents.
Throughputs constrained by hoisting value
estimated from sale of equity. Calculation of
current cut-off price change.
Case Study 3.
Open Pit Uranium
114
Established mine. Reserves from short-term
plan. Residual present values by directors
valuation. All components limiting. Calculation
of limiting economic, balancing and effective
optimum. Sensitivity to present value.
Case Study 4.
Open Pit
Copper/Molybdenum
119
Established mine. Copper equivalent grades in
original copper categories---parametric. Single
increment reserve table. Simple present value
estimate. Concentrator limiting. Calculation of
current
cut-off
policy.
Evaluation
of
concentrator expansion.
Case Study 5.
Underground Gold
126
Established mine. Grades parametric because
of regression effect. Single increment reserve
table with residual present value. Current cutoff grade calculated by breakeven method and
by maximizing present value before and after
tax.
Case Study 6.
Open Pit Copper Prefeasibility Study 133
Reserves in six increments. Calculation of
complete cut-off policy with changing prices
and capacities evaluations of stockpiling policy.
Case Study 7.
Open Pit--- Uranium/Copper
139
Established mine. Two mineral reserves in nine
increments, with residual present value.
Complete cut-off policy. Evaluation of mill
expansion strategy.
Bibliography
144
ix
Acknowledgement
Kenneth F. Lane
Foreword
(to the first edition, 1998)
xi
NOTATION SUMMARY
Present Value Analysis
Time
T
t
Resource Available
r
Variables defining
resource
t
Exploitation strategy
Strategy fort t
Present Value
Maximum P. V.
Primes
()
Opportunity Cost
indicate
Cash Flow
special
Short interval
Small increment
Time per unit of
Exploitation
V= V ( T, R, ) ( also W )
V*= V* (T. R)
F= V* - dV*/dt
C per year
Economic Model
Throughput
Capacity
Variable Cost
(/unit throughput)
(throughput/year)
Mining
Material
M
Treating
Ore
H
Marketing
Mineral
K
Fixed or time costs
Price
material
Cut-off Grade
of ore
Optimum Cut-offs
of ore
Average Grade
of ore
Ore/Material Ratio
Yield during treatment
Quantities
Stockpile recovery cost
material
Stockpile size
material
Cut-off intercepts
mineral/unit of ore
m
h
k
f per year
p per unit of
g mineral/unit
G mineral/unit
g mineral/unit
x
y ( 100 % )
q
s per unit of
S units of
Y1 Y2
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction
When I first the mining industry I believed that ores,
like buried treasures, possessed immediately
recognisable characteristics; they glowed in the dark,
or glittered torchlight, or were black and strangely
heavy. This preconception which is shared by most
laymen and I was effectively a laymen at the time
since my training had been in mathematics and
economics, not in mining.
Even after working at several mines, my conviction
was unshaken.
When the geologists pointed to rich seams in the
hanging walls or chipped what they proclaimed as
good ore samples from new heading, I attributed my
inability to distinguish the material from any of the
surrounding rock to my shameful ignorance of
mineralogy. I was impressed; these people were
sensitive to subtle different which no amount of
concentration revealed to me.
The, inevitably as a mathematician. I became
concerned with the statistics of sampling. I learned
that sample are the nerves of operating mines,
borehole sample, chip sample, channel sample, grab
sample, dust sample ---- thousands of samples which
are regularly taken, assayed, plotted and interpreted.
They are the means of mine control and , in the
grade control department, they are the means for
determining the limits of the ore. At last I
understood.
Although
some
ores
may
be
distinguishable by certain physical properties, ores in
general are defined operationally by a cut-off grade;
material with a mineral content above the cut-off is
scheduled for treatment, other material is left or
dumped a waste.
Having made this discovery, I asked what seemed
to me to be the obvious next question:
Introduction
not normally to the miner for the very obvious reason
that the concentration of the mineral are too low.
In fact, concentration is the critical property. The
mining industry can be regarded ad an industry
whose whole concern is with concentration ---- the
progressive concentration of mineral to a form where
they become marketable.
Typically the process proceeds in stage. The first
stage is exploration, which is the search for
mineralised regions in the earths crust where some
degree of natural concentration has already
occurred. The second stage is extraction. In certain
parts of a mineralised region are recovered for
further treatment. Succeeding stages are treatment
such as crushing, grinding, flotation, leaching,
smelting and refining.
The subdivision of the whole process into
stages, and the locations of the exact boundaries
between them, is dependent upon the economics of
introduction
CHAPTER TWO
ECONOMIC PRINCIPLES
Inevitably, the question that is asked abound any
body of mineralization is --- Does it contain ore?,
more strictly --- Does it contain any potential ore?
An inconvenient consequence of adopting an
economic definition of ore is that is no longer any
inherent property of the mineralised material which
permits an answer to this questions in isolation.
Although exploration personnel often calculate a
dollar value per ton of rock in order to assess
targets, in fact, minerals in the ground have no
explicit value. Not until they have been extracted,
treated and delivered to a customer is any value
realized. Therefore, the economic of ore definition
cannot be assessed separately from the economic of
the total mining process. Indeed, it is the economics
of the mining process which determine the economic
definition of ore.
This point is fundamental. Mineralised bodies are
often referred to as valuable resource. In a sense
they may be but regarding them as such can be
misleading. They are certainly not a valuable
resource that might be compared with cash in a bank
or even a crop on the ground. The only immediate
value they could possess is the price a mining
company might bid for the right to mine them. More
realistically, a mineralised body should be regarded
as a possible opportunity for development, the
development being, of course, a mining operation.
Any value that might be ascribed to the
mineralization is then realized as an integral part of
the proceeds of the operation.
It follows from these consideration that, in order
to establish an
Economic principles
economic basis for ore definition, the analysis must
first be directed to an operating mine. An
understanding of the economic factors which
influence ore boundaries must be derived from an
understanding of the economic factors which
influence the whole mining process.
The factors concerned are many and include
markets, prices and costs, but they can be integrated
using the economic concept of value. A mining
operation earns revenue and incurs costs; it is
therefore an economic entity and an estimated value
can ascribed to it.
This value is clearly dependent upon the
definition of ore , some bases of definition giving rise
to higher values than other. The basis which
generates the highest value is optimum and this
basis established the economic definition of the ore,
in other word, material from the mineralised body
should scheduled for mining as ore if, and only if, the
decision to the overall economic value of the
operation. This is the crucial criterion.
Economic value estimates are derived from
projected cash flows. As a result of earning revenues
and incurring costs year by year, an operation
generates annual net cash flows. These can be
amalgamated into a value, strictly a present value,
by discounting future flows back at an appropriate
cost of capital and totaling them.
The theory of present values --- or their inverses,
internal rates of return --- and methods for
determining the cost of capital are beyond the scope
of the present book. The theory has been widely
Economic Principles
government
and conservationist. Of course, it
immediately begs a question, what is valuable
mineral? An extreme argument is that all the mineral
or all the geological reserves ( whatever they are )
should be extracted in the interests of conserving
resource. This is an unrealistic stance which usually
stems from a misunderstanding of the way in which
minerals are distributed in the ground. A less
extreme view is that the mine should be developed
in such a way that poorer material is extracted along
with richer material in a acceptable blend vielding a
satisfactory profit. Of course, every mine blends
poorer and richer material of necessity and the point
10
CHAPTER THERE
V = C/ (1+ ) + C2/( 1 + )
11
15
and c = c(, t)
Also
{rc (, t) + V* -- t V* + t dV*/dT
{rc(, t) -- tV* + t
dV*/dR = Max
{c(, t) - [V* --
CHAPTER FOUR
Economic Models
The purpose of an economic models of a operation is
to provide .a means for calculating the effects of
changes in certain variables. For present purposes, it
is necessary to be able to calculate the effects of
2) Ore
this can called the treatment component. It is
concerned with the further processing of that part of
Economic Models
Figure 4. 1
UNDERGROUND
SURFACE
Developing
Loading
Cross-cutting
Hauling
Stoping
Tramming
Hoisting
TREATING
MARKTING
Crushing
Grinding
Separating
Smelting
Refining
Selling
23
a source of some
confusion. Most professional
miners know what mining costs are by their own
definitions an they do not readily adapt to the idea
that for cut-off grade determinations such costs
should, in certain circumstances, be reamed .
Semantics are really the whole problem. The
practicalities are that
24
Economic Models
The development of a suitable cost model for any
mine requires a special study to determinate the
fixed and variable elements that are relevant for
ranges of variation under study. For cut-off analyses,
the variable elements. whatever they are called.
Must be related the three throughputs. Mineralised
material. Ore. And mineral. In general there are
substantial fixed elements in what are reported as
mining, treatment. Or marketing costs and these
must be estimated. Separated and aggregated with
the more normally accepted fixed costs such and
administration and over heads. term, such costs vary
with time and are more properly called time costs.
A convenient notation is:
Basic
Variable
cost Capacity
Component
throughput
Quantity (lunit
thro put) (thro putlyr)
Mining
Mineralised
1
m
M
Treating
H
Marketing
Material
Ore
Mineral
xyg
k
Where x is the proportion of mineralised material
classified as ore and g is the average grade of the or
as a mineral: ore ratio.
Other variables are:
26
CHAPTER FIVE
$1. 32/tonne of
$3. 41/tonne of
27
12 million
3.9 million
0.9 thousand
$ 11.9
$ 60 per kilo (p)
0.87 (y)
$ 15.2 million
1) Mine Limiting
With the are of mining (O/P) or the rate of
development
(U/G)
limiting
throughput,
the
corresponding capacity is M units per year so the
time to hand one unit is l/M. Hence the expression
becomes
Maxg{vm = (p k)xyg xh m
(f+F)/M}
Only the terms (p k)xyg xh vary with g so g m, the
optimum cut-off with the mining the mine limiting, is
give by
Maxg {x[(p k )yg h ]}
Here g and x can be represent by integrals of the
grade distribution function and the maximum
determined by calculus. However, it is possible to
see, because of the from of the expression x{(p k)
yg h } that g can be lowered for as long as (p k)yg
is great than h.
Hence the breakeven point is give by
(p k)ygm= h
or gm = h/(p k)y
this is effectively the same breakeven concept that
is employed in other definition of cut-off grades;
mineralised material should be classified as ore for
is
= 0.20 kilo/tonne
This is much higher cut-off than that obtained when
mine is limiting. Without the opportunity cost, F (=
15.2), the formula would give
g = {3.41 + 11.90/3.9} / 60 x 0.87
= 0.12 kilo/tonne
this figure is probably similar to those derived from
traditional cut-off grade analysis which take no
account of present value maximisation. The different
illustrates the premium attaching to earlier cash
flows when only the treatment are limiting
throughput.
3) Market Limiting
This can be a genuine market restriction imposed by,
say, an exclusive sales contract or it can be the
limiting capacity of a refinery or smelter. One unit of
mineralised material give rise to xyg units of mineral
which take xyg/K units of time to process or sell.
Thus, the optimizing expression becomes
Maxg {vk =(p k)xyg xh m
(f+F)xyg/K}
30
Limiting Economic Cut-Off Grades
As before this is equivalent to
Maxg {x[(p k (f+F)/K)yg h]}
and gk is give by
{p k (f+F)/K}ygk = h
or gk = h/ {p k =(f+F)/K}y
this and the preceding formulae have in common the
property that the fixed costs have been distributed
according to the limiting capacity and added to the
corresponding variable cost; for the treatment
limiting case, the treatment cost becomes
h + (f+F)/H
and for the marked limiting case, the marketing cost
becomes
k = (f=F)/K
The latter formula is novel in from but it possesses
the same typical characteristic that the cut-off grade
declines as F declines as the remaining life of the
mine is reduced.
Applying this formulae to the uranium mine data
given earlier on page 27
Gk = 3.41 / {60 {11.9 + 15.2)/0.9}
x 0.87
= 0.13 kilo/tonne
this lower figure is a consequence of the fact that a
marked limitation restricts the extent to which the
cash flow pattern can be influenced by the cut-off
grade policy.
For illustrative purpose, the same value for the
opportunity costs has been used in all three case.
This is somewhat artificial because the three
assumption about which component is actually
limiting the throughput would, if they were applied to
the life operation, give rise to three different
outcomes with correspondingly different opportunity
costs. However, the $15.2 million derived in Case
Study 3 (p.114)is a typical figure for a mine of this
king and its use give result which are realistic and
comparable. They reveal the profound effects which
capacities have on cut-off grade determinations.
31
Economic Definition of Ore
33
CHAPTER SIX
Balancing Cut-Off
Grades
In the preceding chapter, cases were considered
where one component limited the throughput of the
mining system. In the cases the optimum cu-off
grade was shown to be uniquely determined by
economic factors and was called a limiting cut-off
grade. In general, though as in any system withes
several component, no single component is limiting.
In these cases, two, and sometimes
all three,
component are said to be balance.
The factor which determine the relative utilization of
capacities in a mining system are the grade
distribution of the material being mined and the cutoff grade which is being applied to that mined
material.
A low cut-off implies that most of the material being
development and made accessible is treated as ore.
The recovery of mineral from the total mineralised
body is high because very little is classified as waste
but the average grade of the ore is low. Hence , the
amount of mineral obtained from a given extent of
developments is high but the mineral production
from a give throughput of ore is .low
A high cut-off implies high selectivity in mining which
requires a high rate of development to maintain a
CHAPTER SEVEN
45
CHAPTER EIGHT
Economic Forecasts
Previous chapter have shown that the economic
definition of ore is dependent upon the current
values of prices, costs and performances, and upon
two terms which are influenced by the future values
of these parameters. The two terms are the present
of the operation and the rate of change of this
present value with time.
If the purpose of the analysis is confined to
determining the current optimum cut-off grade, the
only the current values for these two terms are
required. As both can only be rough estimates,
dependent as they are one future projections, any
reasonable method of approximation may be
employed to obtain satisfactory values. In the large
companies there may be an economist with
responsibility for establishing short-and long-term
price forecasts. There may also be a planning
department which monitors costs and performance
46
Economic Forecasts
Currently sold under fixed contracts, are example. In
these circumstances, the equivalent of a directors
valuation may be the best figure to use, if one can be
obtained. This is assumed to be so in Case Study 3.
(It is, of course, always possible to take several
values to see whether the assumption has much
effect on cut-off.) Sometimes a recent present value
will already have been made for some other purpose.
For example, a bank submission for additional
finance would usually require a valuation; so, too,
would a reappraisal of company worth for a deal of
some kind. This is illustrated in Case Study 2.
Estimating the rate of change of present value with
time requires a second present value estimates,
namely the present value as it would be in a years
time if the reserves were to remain the same. It is
impracticable and unrealistic to make complicated
Economic Forecasts
49
CHAPTER NINE
Mineralised Reserve
Estimates
In general, the determination of effective optimum
cut-off grade requires information about the grade
distribution of the mineralised material which is
available for mining. As is the case with present
value estimation, this is a comparatively easy
requirement to meet it the purpose of the analysis is
confined to determining only the current optimum
cut-off grade; it is much more difficult and complex if
the purpose is to determine and optimum cut-off
policy for several years.
The whole subject of long-term reserve estimation is
a huge one which has received a lot of attention
within the industry for many years. Many books have
been written about it and the science of geostatistics
has provided a theoretical foundation for much of the
recent work which was lacking earlier. Nevertheless,
reserve estimation retains a large element of art and
each deposit tends to have its own unique features
which are only understood gradually as experience of
the deposit is acquired. Overall the subject is beyond
the scope of this book, but certain aspects are
particularly important in relation to cut-off grade
determination.
Normal and prudent practice is to have at least
several months supply of potential ore development
and available for mining at all times. Usually this
51
Table 9.1
Tonnage
Average
Contained
Category
(10 tonnes)
Grade
Cu
(% Cu)
(% Cu)
(tonnes)
0-0.200
30.0
-----
----0.201-0.300
40.0
0.250
0.391-0.400
50.0
0.380
100.0
0.650
100
190
0.401 +
650
The common assumption, when interpolating such a
table of reserves, is that the average grades apply
uniformly within each category. Thus, the tonnage
and grade above, say, 0-30% Cu is 840 tonnes
contained copper in 150.00 tonnes, i , e, 0-56%; pr,
above say o-35% is 745 tonnes ( 650 tonnes plus half
of 190 tonnes) in 125.00 tonnes, i , e, 0-5%. Any cutoff grade based upon such interpolation is likely to
be misleading because it will indicate that the
incremental ore created by reducing the cut-off
grade from 0-35% to o-30% is 25.00 tonnes at a
grade of 0-38%. This is an inconsistency because the
average grade, by definition, should be between the
two cut-off limits.
The problem can sometimes be circumvented by an
alternative assumption about the distribution of
grade within the various categories.
For example, within the second category the
distribution could be assumed to be rectangular. This
would give rise to an average at the mid point, 025%, which is consistent with the actual average as
shown in figure 9.1. Otherwise, if the actual average
is neat the middle value but not equal to it, a
trapezoidal distribution could be assumed as shown
in figure 9.2. In the illustrated, more material is
assumed to be at the upper end of the category than
the lower end and, as a result, the average grade
exceeds the mid-value. If the
55