Operations Research Decision Making Under Uncertainty

By bundarmama, june 2013 | 7 Pages (1652 Words) | 103 Views !"oo#$ | %ourse &i'#e$ ()era'ions *esear!" +e!ision ,a-ing under un!er'ain'y | Pro.essor$ #ey#a (s/en |

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Purdue 2ni3ersi'y 4ey#a (/sen 56 373 8a## 2005 +6%5 5(9 :9:4; 5 ,a-ing im)or'an' de!isions o.'en re<uires 'rea'ing major un!er'ain'y, #ong 'ime "ori/ons, and !om)#e= 3a#ue issues1 &o dea# wi'" su!" )rob#ems, '"e dis!i)#ine o. de!ision ana#ysis was de3e#o)ed1 &"e dis!i)#ine !om)rises '"e )"i#oso)"y, '"eory, me'"odo#ogy, and )ro.essiona# )ra!'i!e ne!essary 'o .orma#i/e '"e ana#ysis o. im)or'an' de!isions1 +e!ision :na#ysis is a se' o. <uan'i'a'i3e de!ision> ma-ing 'e!"ni<ues .or de!ision si'ua'ions in w"i!" un!er'ain'y e=is's1 +e!ision ana#ysis re)resen's no' on#y a !o##e!'ion o. de!isionma-ing 'e!"ni<ues bu' a#so an ana#ysis o.

#ogi! under#ying de!ision ma-ing1 +e!ision>ma-ing re<uires !"oosing be'ween a#'erna'i3es1 W"i#e '"e range o. a#'erna'i3es 'o be !onsidered is se' by '"e de!ision> ma-er, '"e de!ision ana#ys' may be ab#e 'o sugges' new a#'erna'i3es as '"e ana#ysis )rogresses1 ,any de!ision )rob#ems be!ome re#a'i3e#y 'ri3ia# i. un!er'ain'y is remo3ed1 8or e=am)#e, !onsider "ow easi#y a de!ision>ma-er !ou#d ma-e a !ri'i!a# de!ision in #aun!"ing a new !ommer!ia# )rodu!' i. "e?s"e !ou#d )redi!' wi'" !er'ain'y )rodu!'ion and sa#es !os's, )ri!edemand re#a'ions"i)s, and go3ernmen'a# de!isions1 +e!ision ana#ysis 'rea's un!er'ain'y e..e!'i3e#y by en!oding in.ormed judgmen' in '"e .orm o. )robabi#i'y assignmen's 'o e3en's and 3ariab#es1 (ne o. '"e mos' basi! !on!e)'s in de!ision ana#ysis is '"e dis'in!'ion be'ween a good de!ision and a good ou'!ome1 : good de!ision is a #ogi!a# de!ision >> one based on '"e in.orma'ion, 3a#ues, and )re.eren!es o. '"e de!ision>ma-er1 : good ou'!ome is one '"a' is )ro.i'ab#e, or o'"erwise "ig"#y 3a#ues1 5n s"or', a good ou'!ome is one '"a' we wis" wou#d "a))en1 By ma-ing good de!isions in a## si'ua'ions '"a' .a!e us, we "o)e 'o ensure as "ig" a )er!en'age o. good ou'!omes as )ossib#e1 We may be disa))oin'ed 'o .ind '"a' a good de!ision "as )rodu!ed a bad ou'!ome, or dismayed 'o #earn '"a' someone w"o "as made w"a' we !onsider 'o be11