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Interro de TD 2
Anne Plunket
Master 1 - ETT et EI
Number of obs
F( 2,
42)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
45
= 2919.99
= 0.0000
= 0.9929
= 0.9925
= 8977.9
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------cons |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------income |
.9333721
.0644142
14.49
0.000
.8033789
1.063365
trend | -140.4874
553.0085
-0.25
0.801
-1256.504
975.5288
_cons |
11579.25
8573.289
1.35
0.184
-5722.351
28880.84
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------Durbin-Watson Statistic = .4633078
(a) Expliquez ce quest lautocorrlation et quels problmes elle pose pour lestimation par la mthode des Moindres carrs ordinaires
Lautocorrlation rend compte du fait que les rsidus sont corrls entre eux au cours
du temps. Autrement dit, les rsidus ne sont pas distribus de manire indpendants,
ils ne sont pas i.i.d. A ce moment l, la variance des rsidu nest pas minimale et on
risque de rejeter lhypothse nulle tort.
(b) Quel est le type dautocorrlation que le test de Durbin et Watson permet de
tester ?
Le DW ne teste que lautocorrlation dordre 1 du type :
t = t1 + ut
Il sagit dun processus de Markov dordre 1.
(c) Fates le test de Durbin et Watson ; indiquez clairement quelle est lhypothse
nulle et alternative. Quelles sont vos conclusions.
H0 : = 0 contre H1 : 6= 0 La rgle de dcision est la suivante :
si d < dL on rejette lhypothse null ;
si d > dU on ne la rejette pas ;
si dL < d < dU il y a un doute
Ici, DW = 0,46, k=2 et n=45, dL = 1.43 et dU = 1.62
DW < dL (1.43), par consquent, on en dduit quil y a de lautocorrlation
lordre 1 au moins.
1
2. Vous disposez de deux rgressions du revenu en fonction dun certain nombre dindicateurs et de variables o hwage indique le salaire horaire en cents, urban est une indicatrice gale un si la personne vit en ville par opposition la campagne, age reprsente
lge de la personne, ethnic est gale 1 si la personne nest pas dorigine blanche, south
est gale 1 si la personne habitude dans le sud des Etats-Unis
. mean hwage, over(urban)
Mean estimation
Number of obs
1900
0: urban = 0
1: urban = 1
-------------------------------------------------------------Over |
Mean
Std. Err.
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+-----------------------------------------------hwage
|
0 |
496.7519
9.091503
478.9216
514.5823
1 |
622.3078
7.321256
607.9493
636.6664
-------------------------------------------------------------. reg hwage educ age ethnic urban south
Source |
SS
df
MS
-------------+-----------------------------Model | 31555417.8
5 6311083.57
Residual | 98930460.8 1894 52233.6118
-------------+-----------------------------Total |
130485879 1899 68712.9429
Number of obs
F( 5, 1894)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
=
=
=
=
=
1900
120.82
0.0000
0.2418
0.2398
228.55
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------hwage |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------educ |
19.52263
2.101356
9.29
0.000
15.40141
23.64384
age |
26.63248
1.703658
15.63
0.000
23.29124
29.97372
ethnic | -83.06785
15.34264
-5.41
0.000
-113.1581
-52.97761
urban |
95.69047
12.08005
7.92
0.000
71.99886
119.3821
south | -61.58681
11.53298
-5.34
0.000
-84.20549
-38.96813
_cons |
454.6921
55.89884
8.13
0.000
564.3219
345.0623
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
habitent dans le sud est de south + ethnic = 83, 06 61, 58 = 144, 64.
3. On vous propose dtudier les dterminants davoir un salaire horaire suprieur 700
cents. Vous disposez des tableaux suivants :
. logit highwage educ age fatheduc motheduc ethnic urban south, nolog
Logistic regression
Number of obs
LR chi2(7)
Prob > chi2
Pseudo R2
=
=
=
=
1900
313.50
0.0000
0.1412
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------highwage |
Coef.
Std. Err.
z
P>|z|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------educ |
.1246213
.0256527
4.86
0.000
.074343
.1748995
age |
.2012003
.0184215
10.92
0.000
.1650949
.2373057
fatheduc |
.0101726
.021478
0.47
0.636
-.0319236
.0522687
motheduc |
.0694325
.0257211
2.70
0.007
.0190201
.1198449
ethnic | -.8283974
.2134957
-3.88
0.000
-1.246841
-.4099534
urban |
.8551816
.1462779
5.85
0.000
.5684822
1.141881
south | -.3091703
.1261468
-2.45
0.014
-.5564136
-.061927
_cons |
-9.74939
.6661931
-14.63
0.000
-11.0551
-8.443676
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------. logit highwage educ age fatheduc south, nolog
Logistic regression
Number of obs
LR chi2(4)
Prob > chi2
Pseudo R2
=
=
=
=
1900
255.43
0.0000
0.1150
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------highwage |
Coef.
Std. Err.
z
P>|z|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------educ |
.1512071
.0248181
6.09
0.000
.1025645
.1998496
age |
.200255
.0180981
11.06
0.000
.1647833
.2357267
fatheduc |
.0612833
.0178013
3.44
0.001
.0263933
.0961733
south | -.5051628
.1211115
-4.17
0.000
-.742537
-.2677886
_cons | -9.230539
.62938
-14.67
0.000
-10.4641
-7.996977
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------. prvalue, x(motheduc = 12) rest(mean)
logit: Predictions for highwage
Confidence intervals by delta method
Pr(y=1|x):
Pr(y=0|x):
x=
educ
14.166223
0.2879
0.7121
age
27.869681
fatheduc
11.210106
motheduc
12
ethnic
.05585106
urban
.76861702
south
.28191489
Pr(y=1|x):
Pr(y=0|x):
x=
educ
14.268166
0.3367
0.6633
age
27.942907
fatheduc
11.351211
motheduc
12
ethnic
.06401384
urban
1
south
.25778547
urban
.80769231
south
1
Pr(y=1|x):
Pr(y=0|x):
x=
educ
13.923077
0.1116
0.8884
age
27.115385
fatheduc
9.6538462
motheduc
12
ethnic
1