Larry Swedroe Avoiding Stock and Sector Picking, Economic Forecasting, and All Other Forms of S

Larry Swedroe (Passively) Positions For 2012: Avoiding Stock And Sector Picking, Economic F...
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Larry Swedroe (Passively) Positions For 2012: Avoiding Stock And

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Sector Picking, Economic Forecasting, And All Other Forms Of Speculation

Dec 25 2011, 09:49 | 218 comments by: Larry Swedroe | includes: DIA, DJCI, DJPC, EEM, EFA, GLD, IEF, IVV, SPY, TIP, VNQ, VT, VWO BOOKMARKED / READ LATER
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Added to your bookmarks on the Seeking Alpha homepage Remove Bookmark This is the 5th piece in our Positioning for 2012 series. Readers can find the entire Positioning For 2012 series here. Larry Swedroe is principal and director of research for both Buckingham Asset Management, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor firm in St. Louis, Mo, and BAM Advisor Services, LLC, a service provider to investment advisors across the country, most of whom are affiliated with CPA firms. BAM Advisor Services currently has 130 participating firms. Buckingham currently has $3.5 Billion in assets under management, while the BAM network of advisors has an additional $10.9 Billion in AUM. Swedroe was among the first authors to publish a book that explained passive investing in laymans terms The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need. He has authored or co-authored 10 more books including 2011's The Quest for Alpha and Investment Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make and How to Avoid Them (which hit bookshelves in November). Swedroe authors the Wise Investing blog for CBSs personal finance Web site MoneyWatch.com. Seeking Alpha's Jonathan Liss recently spoke with Larry to find out how he planned to position clients in 2012 in light of his unique understanding of how concepts like risk, diversification and long-term asset class returns interact in properly constructed portfolios.
General Portfolio Strategy

Seeking Alpha (SA): How would you generally describe Buckingham's investing style/philosophy? Larry Swedroe (LS): None of our advice is based on our opinions. Instead, it is based on what could be called the science of investing, [mainly based on] evidence from peer reviewed academic journals. And the evidence is overwhelming that the strategy most likely to allow you to achieve your goals is a passive one.
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Thus, our investment strategy is to avoid the typical focus on trying to manage returns, something that cannot be done, but instead focusing on the things we actually can control, the amount of risk we take, diversifying those risks away as much as possible, keeping costs low and keeping tax efficiency high. We use passively managed funds for equities and commodities and individual bond ladders for fixed income (except for small accounts where funds are used). SA: Within equities, are there any particular sectors or themes you are currently overweight or underweight? LS: We avoid investing in sectors as we view that as speculation, not investing. We tend to have high allocations to value and small stocks relative to the market weightings. That allows us to diversify across risk factors and also to use the risk premiums in small and value to hold less overall beta exposure. That in turn reduces the potential dispersion of returns, or what might be called tail risk. Also, our clients typically have low correlation of their human capital to the risks of small and value stocks. SA: Which asset classes or investment styles are you overweight? Which are you underweight? Why? LS: We tend to underweight growth and especially small growth. Small growth stocks have been found to be what might be called the black hole of investing. The same is true of all stocks that have what could be called the lottery effect. Investors try to hit the home run and end up overpaying for these stocks. In the case of small growth stocks it is caused by trying to find the next Microsoft (MSFT). But the same effect can be found in penny stocks, stocks in bankruptcy and IPOs (which we also avoid). SA: Was there an asset class that exceeded your expectations in 2011? LS: Bond returns outperformed our expectations, which are always equal to the current yields. We dont make any interest rate forecasts, and we minimize credit risks, generally avoiding corporate bonds for example and only investing in AAA/AA munis. SA: To which index or fund - if any - do you benchmark your performance? Has this changed recently, and if so, why? LS: Every client has a portfolio that is tailored to their unique situation. Thus, they have a unique asset allocation that is right for them. Since we use only passive portfolios, their portfolios are in effect their own benchmarks. Or one could compare the returns to a similarly weighted portfolio of index funds (we generally use the funds of DFA and Bridgeway, not index funds). SA: Why do you prefer DFA and Bridgeway funds specifically? LS: Index funds are great vehicles. But a well-designed passively managed fund will take all the benefits of indexing (low cost, broad diversification, low turnover and thus high tax efficiency) and add further value through structure. And they can add value by minimizing the negatives of indexing including forced turnover and inclusion of all securities in an index. For example, these funds can tax manage (avoiding intentionally taking short-term gains and harvest losses) and avoid the negative effects of
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reconstituting transparent indices. They can also add value by intelligent, patient trading, avoiding forced trades index funds must make to avoid tracking error. And being a provider of liquidity rather than a taker. They can also add value by adding screens to eliminate investing in IPOs, penny stocks and stocks in bankruptcy that have been shown by research to have poor risk/return characteristics. And they can add value by including momentum screens. Bridgeway and DFA are the two equity fund families we currently use to implement passive strategies. Bridgeway, through its OMNI Small Value funds (BOSVX) (BOTSX), adds value through both structure and patient trading and screening for momentum. Instead of a simple single screen, such as BtM (Book to Market), Bridgeway uses four value screens and also has greater exposure to the small and value risk factors than the typical small value index fund. DFA funds add value in similar ways and they also have core funds, or multi asset class funds, that reduce trading costs, reduce turnover and thus improve tax efficiency and also reduce the need to rebalance (which can lead to transaction costs and tax inefficiency). SA: Do you ever buy individual stocks for client portfolios? LS: Never! We believe that has more to do with speculating than investing. In other words, buying individual stocks is taking uncompensated, idiosyncratic risks. Prudent investors only take compensated risks, risks for which you must be compensated because you cannot diversify them away. SA: Some describe the current era as The Great Deleveraging. Do you agree/disagree, and does this macro consideration affect your investment planning process? LS: I would agree that we are in a period of deleveraging. But that has no impact on our investment strategy because that is information that the market already has incorporated into prices. SA: 2010-11 saw a notable rush for the exits from equities and equity vehicles. Is this a cyclical, or secular shift? What would it take to bring them back? LS: This is the typical individual investor cycle that we see. Most investors act as if they were driving a car forward while looking through the rearview mirror. That causes them to buy what did well (high) and sell what did poorly (low). Not exactly a prescription for success. They will come back after periods of good performance. SA: Do you believe gold is a genuine hedge in uncertain markets? If so, how much exposure to it or other precious metals do you have? If not, where are you turning for potential downside diversification? LS: Gold does provide a hedge against some economic and geopolitical risks, but it clearly is not a hedge for the very thing most investors buy it for: inflation. Gold cannot be an inflation hedge when you can have multi-decade long periods where gold falls 70% and inflation rises 4% [a year]. I do recommend investors consider having exposure to commodities in general as a long-term inflation hedge (as commodities are a source of inflation). Given the low correlation to stocks and bonds and the high volatility, one needs only a small allocation, say 3-5%, to have an impact.
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Also if one adds commodities (such as the DJ-UBS Index), then one should consider adding some duration to the bond side. Bonds and commodities hedge each others risks well. We have yet to experience a negative year for both bonds and commodities (though it is possible). SA: Is there any particular vehicle you prefer to capture commodities exposure? For vehicles that track a basket of commodities by holding futures, how damaging is contango to long-term performance? Is there a better way to gain this exposure? LS: We used to use the PIMCO fund. However, we were always concerned about their active trading strategies for the collateral. We were finally able to convince DFA to create a fund (DCMSX) with lower costs that also passively managed the collateral and also improved returns by avoiding trading on the roll dates for indices. This is a big deal.
Macro Investing Themes

SA: Global Macro considerations dominated the headlines in 2011. Do you see 2012 unfolding differently? If so, how? LS: Yes, it is always different, but my crystal ball is always cloudy. So I dont make forecasts. Investors should learn what Warren Buffett knows: A market forecast tells you nothing about where the market is going but a lot about the person doing the forecast. There are good studies on the ability to forecast and the only thing that correlates with accuracy is fame, and the correlation is negative: The more famous the forecaster, the less accurate the forecast. SA: Will Eurozone contagion continue to drive the markets direction, and how are you protecting client assets from potential fallout there? LS: If it happens, it certainly can be expected to do so. And if it doesnt that will also drive the market. Investors need to understand that it is only surprises that drive prices (what is knowable is already in prices) and by definition surprises are not forecastable. Which is why we focus on managing risks. We protect against this type of risk in several ways. First, through global diversification. Second, by not taking more risk than our clients have the ability, willingness or need to take. Third, by having high tilts to small and value and low exposure to beta, for most clients. Fourth, making sure our fixed income investments are only of the highest quality, so that they will perform well when they are needed most. SA: So under specific circumstances such as the current situation in the eurozone, you dont lighten up on particular problem areas at all in client portfolios? LS: That would not make sense. The reason is simple. If we know there are problems, the market surely also knows and that means the problems are already incorporated into prices. And why would you buy when things look safe, and thus valuations are high and thus expected returns are low, only to sell when risks show up, and thus valuations are low and expected returns are now high? That doesnt seem like a rational strategy, yet it is exactly what most investors do, and it explains why they do so poorly, underperforming the very funds in which they invest. Buffett for example, not only warns against the foolishness of market timing, but adds that if you are going to try and time the market, he advises to
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buy when others are panicking. We do that simply through the process of rebalancing. We get to buy low, when expected returns are high, and sell when expected returns are low. SA: International equities proved volatile for both developed and developing markets over the past 2 years. Do you see a clear winner going forward? LS: My crystal ball is always cloudy, as is everyone elses even if they dont know it. Remember there are only three types of forecasters. Those that dont know where the market is going. Those that dont know they dont know. And those that know they dont know but get paid lots of money to pretend they do. SA: Where are the real growth stories overseas right now? LS: This is basically an irrelevant question because if there is a growth story its already [baked into] prices. Also what most investors dont know is that there is a negative correlation between country growth rates and stock returns. So if you want high returns you invest in slow - not high growth countries. SA: How much exposure to emerging markets do you have both in terms of stocks and bonds? Are China, India or other major EMs better positioned to withstand a serious global economic downturn than the U.S.? LS: We typically have about 40% exposure to international stocks with about a quarter of that being emerging markets. Our developed vs. emerging allocation is in line with global market caps. We have avoided emerging markets bonds as we only invest high credit quality fixed income. Furthermore, our equity investments are completely unhedged with respect to currency. We feel this is enough exposure to emerging markets currency. SA: So you believe in strict cap-weighting? What is your take on some of the alternative indexing methodologies that have gained in popularity in recent years, things like fundamentally or dividend weighted indexes? LS: We dont believe necessarily in strict market cap weighting. Obviously we dont do that with client portfolios as we typically have large tilts to small and value stocks, as much as 10 or more times market cap weights for those types of stocks. But within an index or asset class we believe market cap weighting is likely to be the best strategy. Having said that, as I noted above, we also believe in using screens such as for IPOs and penny stocks and also for momentum. And we want to be able to be patient traders, providers of liquidity---and thus the funds we use dont strictly market cap weight. SA: The Iran nuke situation and a potential Israeli, U.S. or global attack. How serious would such an event be to oil prices and subsequently, the global economy/exchanges? Is this something you're positioning for and if so, how? LS: Obviously this would be a very serious situation and would almost certainly drive energy prices much higher and global equity prices lower. That risk is built into client portfolios is the financial planning process. However, we dont just consider the known risks like this one, but the unknown ones. We make sure that our clients understand that just because something hasnt happened doesnt mean it cannot or will not. That
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gets back to making sure our clients dont take more risk than they have the ability, willingness or need to take and only investing in the highest quality fixed income assets. SA: Is the housing market in U.S. still an issue, or not so much anymore? Will prices continue to fall? Do you have exposure to either REITs or residential real estate in client portfolios? LS: We recommend clients consider including an allocation to REITs as a good diversifier of risks. Thus, those that have room in tax advantaged accounts will typically have a small allocation, that is rebalanced, like all other asset classes. We dont tactically asset allocate because the evidence is strongly against trying to do so.
Fixed Income
SA: Where do you see Treasury yields in 12 months? Are Treasuries worth buying at current (low) yields? For clients requiring income, where have you been turning in this low yield environment? LS: The evidence is strong that there are no good bond forecasters, just as there are no good equity forecasters. Thus we use the current yield curve as the best estimate of tomorrows yield curve. And we dont change investment strategies based on levels of rates. That leads to investors making big mistakes of chasing yield in the form of either taking too much credit risk or too much duration risk. SA: What is the ideal asset allocation for someone with a long-term horizon (greater than a decade) and no need to touch their investments? Can investors continue to rely on stocks after the 'lost decade' we just experienced? LS: There is no ideal. Each investor is different. My book The Only Guide Youll Ever Need for the Right Financial Plan teaches investors how to develop an asset allocation that is just right for them. It provides the questions to ask to help create that right plan. The issues revolve not only around the investment horizon but also about the willingness to take risk, stability of labor capital, and the need to take risk (considering ones marginal utility of wealth). Having said that, for those investors that have already won the game, meaning they have enough, and thus have a low marginal utility of wealth, I recommend a portfolio with very low exposure to equities (20-30%) and a very high tilt to small and value, with 30-50% international (with a developed to emerging markets ratio of 3:1) and the rest in the highest quality fixed income investments (including a strong preference for TIPS). Disclosure Statement: Every BAM client has different allocation. Not all clients will even own the same funds. Across different client portfolios we are long many DFA equity funds and the two Bridgeway Omni Small Cap funds mentioned above ((BOSVX) (BOTSX)) 1,183 people decided to get IVV articles by email alert Get email alerts on IVV
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Added to your bookmarks on the Seeking Alpha homepage Remove Bookmark About this article Emailed to: 52,559 people who get ETFs & Portfolio Strategy daily. Tagged: ETFs & Portfolio Strategy, Portfolio Strategy & Asset Allocation, 2012 Outlook, Editors' Picks, Interviews Problem with this article? Please tell us. Disagree with this article? Submit your own. Articles that link to this one Positioning For 2012: Guide To The Series by SA Editors Larry Swedroe (Passively) Positions For 2012: Avoiding Stock And Sector Picking, Economic Forecasting, And All Other Forms Of Speculation by Larry Swedroe More articles by Larry Swedroe Nobel Laureates Fama And Shiller Duel Over Bubbles Fri, Nov 22 It's A Stock Picker's Year Fri, Nov 15 Larry Swedroe Positions For 2013: Resist The Temptation To Stretch For Yield Tue, Dec 25 'Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make And How To Avoid Them': Larry Swedroe And The Zen Of Passive Investing Thu, Jan 26 Comments (218) Register or Login to rate comments
gordon Comments (468) You're recommending a small cap that's only been around for 4 months. The IWM-- Russell smallcap is back to 2006 levels, so you made NO money in 5 years. You got lucky that it's doubled from $35 due to Fed intervention, maybe you're counting on more Fed intervention? http://tinyurl.com/7nu...
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25 Dec 2011, 10:50 AMReplyLike1
byloe n. selheigh Comments (376) The investing advice containted in this interview could be summed up in the words of Sgt. Schultz on the 60s comedy classic Hogan's Heroes. "We know nothing--NOTHING!" 25 Dec 2011, 11:01 AMReplyLike26
David Van Knapp Comments (8805) As an admitted Dividend Zealot (DZ), is there such a thing as an Asset Allocation Zealot (AAZ)? If so, we have met him in this interview. So the experts at DFA can be trusted to pick individual stocks, but I cannot? Honestly, I trust myself more than them, and I get to keep their fund management fee as well as the advisor fee (since you can only get DFA funds through an advisor). I totally reject the proposition that because on average individuals underperform the funds they invest in (and I completely believe that statistic), therefor NO individual should pick his/her own investments. "Don't try this at home." Painting every individual with the broad brush of "average" makes no sense and suggests a misunderstanding of what "average" means. Nothing to see here, folks, just run to your nearest investment advisor and he/she will put you into the best DFA funds and the safest investment-grade bonds...tailored for you individually, of course. 26 Dec 2011, 12:43 PMReplyLike9
SlingWing9 Comments (416) David, I agree with your premise regarding painting individual investors with the same brush. I tend to paint money managers the same way. Money managers will be the first to tell us that there are many managers that outperform the market, while I would say the same thing about individual investors. On another note, perfect diversification leads to a result that is perfectly average. A percentage point or two difference over the course of a year isn't something I would write home about. Individual investors have a definite advantage over large funds, that being the ability to move quickly. Of course we will hear from money managers about excessive trading and missed opportunities which in some cases may be valid, however, it doesn't encompass every individual investor any more than saying every money manager is never any better at best than average.
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The 60/40 equity/bond strategy is all good and well for someone that doesn't have the time or inclination to understand and/or research the markets, but for someone that is willing to put a little effort into it, beating the average is not all that difficult. So while I agree with you, it can be assumed that the author will not. 26 Dec 2011, 03:08 PMReplyLike2
varan Comments (2506) I doubt that the interviewee means to address savvy investors who can do it all on their own. 26 Dec 2011, 03:12 PMReplyLike0
byloe n. selheigh Comments (376) Reduced to fundamentals, modern portfolio theory is correct, and Swedroe with it. It is correct because it is a tautology. Tautologies are always true, and also always sterile. Consider MPT's central claim, "the average investor can't beat the market." Of course the average investor can't beat the market because by definition the average investor reiterated millions of times IS the market. As you correctly note, the more interesting and nontautological question is "Am I an average investor?" 27 Dec 2011, 10:02 AMReplyLike3 cdr_ckharris Comments (16) Ahhhh - but he doesn't say that Varan. David's and Slingwing's comments are spot on - Larry has painted all retail investors with the same brush regardless of time, energy, or talent. What is missing is an acknowledgement that professional money managers have significant constraints that a typical retail investor does not. Also missing is an assessment of his long term track record (including fees) of how he has performed relative to any standard index. With 4 out of 5 pros not reaching this, one should wonder why a retail investor should listen to them. 27 Dec 2011, 03:13 PMReplyLike2 SlingWing9 Comments (416) This is a great example of how not to retire poor, just next to it, or why I manage my own money.
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25 Dec 2011, 11:25 AMReplyLike14
Burden Comments (145) So true. Even if I wanted to be a passive buy and hold investor, I would just buy the SPY and forget about it. No management fees. However, for someone that is willing to work at their investments for about 2 hours a day, and who understands how to use options, one can reasonably expect to outperform the S and P by at least 2% per year. I fail to understand why people believe that professional money managers are going to get better returns than they could for themselves, especially when you net out fees. If one does not have the time or inclination to manage one's own money, and yet they want to be in the market, just buy the SPY and reinvest dividends, I am sure you will outperform most of these run of the mill money managers, once you take out their fees. 26 Dec 2011, 12:36 PMReplyLike2
Bill S. Friend Comments (711) Everybody is a genius in a rising market. 26 Dec 2011, 10:45 PMReplyLike3 amalagoli Comments (340) I the future cannot be predicted, what makes one think that a diversified portfolio of anything will eventually grow in value? This would have to be based on past experience. Therefore, the proponents of passive investing DO have a view about the future, namely that it will resemble the past .... more or less ... Market cannot be timed in a speculative sense, but one can get a good idea when it is time to stay out. Not following the 'passive' investing dogma has saved me lots of money ... 25 Dec 2011, 11:30 AMReplyLike10
American in Paris Comments (5519)
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Well, let me tell why I am skeptical. I hear your comment all the time. If was so easy to gain superior returns by sitting the bad spells, then why don't professional investors do the same thing and leave passive investing in the dust? But professional investors as a group do much worse than their benchmarks. The problem is that long term it is impossible to gain an edge by market timing. Most market timing is just a reaction to current events, not an anticipation of what is to come. 26 Dec 2011, 12:06 PMReplyLike0 amalagoli Comments (340) A couple of points. First, the fact that most professional investors do not outperform the markets is not per se a proof that market timing is impossible. All it says is that there are lots of mediocre professionals out there (which is true). To the extent that there is at least one Buffett, market timing of sorts is possible (in Buffet's case, the timing associated with buying selected companies at the right entry point, and selling if the value proposition no longer holds). It is like saying that it is impossible to make great discoveries because most scientists do not earn the Nobel Prize. All one needs is one Einstein ... Second, my point was really about the meaning of long term investing. There is a misconception that investing for the long term will deliver the "average" long term market returns. This is a bit of a statistical fallacy. By definition, the chance of achieving "average" long term returns is less than 50% no matter how long the time horizon. The truth is that passive investments can deliver very disappointing results even over a 20 or 30 years period, especially if one buys 'passive' investments when the market is in one of the many recurrent bubbles. This basic property of "expected" returns seems to be missed by many asset allocators and even academics. And I will say it again. I am very happy I did not follow the 'passive' buy and hold dogma in 2007 ... 27 Dec 2011, 11:05 PMReplyLike2 SlingWing9 Comments (416) On the positive side, the article seems to carry the theme of expecting a Japanese-style recovery. If that's the case, capital preservation would be key. 25 Dec 2011, 11:51 AMReplyLike0
Ray Lopez Comments (1422) Seems these guys want to ape DFA, which makes me wonder what their value add is. Probably a "me-too" DFA clone. The stat about
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low-growth countries giving high-growth multiples is a well known data mining artifice that does not to me ring true--it's a kind of "January Effect" artifice. Of course, I have invested in a Congo gold mining company called BAA that is doing OK but I would not get into low growth countries in general. 25 Dec 2011, 12:41 PMReplyLike0 Econdoc Comments (2944) Read this piece and learn from it. Much good advice in here. Much humility too. That is the path to prosperity. Most of the comments suffer from the "the smartest guy in the room syndrome" this is a pretty common failing among investors and the main source of loss. Most of you need to get over the fact - that whatever you believe you know is either - out of date - already baked into prices - or just plain wrong. If you take that approach you will save yourself some heartache. E 25 Dec 2011, 12:53 PMReplyLike9 Gardener Comments (212) Agree completely Econdoc 3 Apr, 07:42 PMReplyLike0
varan Comments (2506) At the risk of sounding uncharitable on Dec 25, I note that (a) BOSVX has been around only since end of August, and (b) BOTSX has been around since 12/31/10, and according to the website of the fund, http://bit.ly/tJSB8A has yielded -18% YTD. @econdoc The fact that the readers come to this site is evidence enough that we do not think that we know it all, and need advice from trusted sources with a record.
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25 Dec 2011, 01:05 PMReplyLike5 Econdoc Comments (2944) "The fact that the readers come to this site is evidence enough that we do not think that we know it all, and need advice from trusted sources with a record" would that it were so firstly - if you are coming here looking for advice I feel sorry for you. if you are in such need you should go to a fee only advisor second - and this is going to be hard for you to get your head around but it is true. your best bet by far is to avoid any expert and run a mile from a winning track record - all of these are statistical anomalies only. even Buffet - with his record - is questionable in this regard and he for the most part stands alone. your best bet is to do what this guy advises buy and hold passive vehicles - that's it. do that and only that and you will end with more than you started. avoid active funds - run a mile from hedge funds and do not buy stocks E 25 Dec 2011, 05:10 PMReplyLike5 webmind Comments (1062) How can you say don't buy stocks when they are the best performing asset class in history? Anyone who can't beat the market averages picking good stocks and selling calls is seriously lacking in average ability. 25 Dec 2011, 10:41 PMReplyLike5
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Larry Swedroe (Passively) Positions For 2012: Avoiding Stock And

Sector Picking, Economic Forecasting, And All Other Forms Of Speculation

General Portfolio Strategy

Macro Investing Themes

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