Industry Economic And Ratings Outlook:

Flight Paths For Global Aerospace Companies And Defense Contractors Continue To Diverge
Primary Credit Analysts: Christopher A Denicolo, CFA, Washington D.C. (1) 202-383-2398; christopher.denicolo@standardandpoors.com Werner Staeblein, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-130; werner.staeblein@standardandpoors.com Secondary Credit Analysts: Tatiana Kleiman, New York (1) 212-438-4872; tatiana.kleiman@standardandpoors.com Chris Mooney, CFA, New York (1) 212-438-4240; chris.mooney@standardandpoors.com

Table Of Contents
Economic Outlook Industry Ratings Outlook Smooth Sailing For Some, Pockets Of Turbulence For Others Related Criteria And Research

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Industry Economic And Ratings Outlook:

Flight Paths For Global Aerospace Companies And Defense Contractors Continue To Diverge
The global commercial aerospace and defense sectors continue to face disparate prospects, with companies that cater to commercial aviation seeing more positive trends than those that supply the military. Strong demand from major airlines for new, more fuel-efficient passenger aircraft is prompting large orders for aircraft manufacturers. On the other hand, the defense sector will likely encounter greater turbulence amid weaker demand due to the triggering of sequestration (significant, across-the-board budget cuts) in the U.S. in March 2013. Many European nations have been reducing military budgets in response to the global recession of 2009 as well. Nevertheless, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services expects the credit quality of most commercial aerospace and defense companies to remain fairly stable through 2014. Overview We expect the commercial aerospace market to remain strong in 2013 and 2014, but defense contractors are likely to see lower demand, thanks to slashed U.S. defense spending. Despite the different prospects, we expect both sectors' credit quality to remain fairly stable. Commercial aerospace companies may see fewer total orders next year, but their huge order backlog should support planned production rates for the next few years. In an era of diminished spending, defense contractors' credit quality will now likely depend on how managements respond with financial policies, such as share buybacks or mergers and acquisitions.

Most commercial aircraft manufacturers and suppliers will likely see increased revenues and earnings next year, and that could lead us to raise our ratings or revise outlooks to positive on some companies. However, the need to increase investments to raise production rates and the hurdles inherent in boosting production and introducing new models could, in some cases, limit credit quality improvement. We believe the larger defense contractors' diverse programs and solid cash flow should help cushion losses from federal spending cuts. Therefore, we believe credit quality will likely depend more on management teams' financial policies--whether they respond to weaker growth prospects by buying back shares in hopes of propping up stock prices or by pursuing mergers. Small defense contractors are less diversified and more at risk for negative outlook changes or downgrades if budget cuts reduce or eliminate one or more of their major programs.

Economic Outlook
Standard & Poor's publishes a monthly scenario depicting where our economists think the U.S. economy could be heading for the next few years. Beyond projecting GDP and inflation, we also include outlooks for other major economic categories. We call this forecast our baseline scenario, and we use it in all areas of our credit analysis.

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Industry Economic And Ratings Outlook: Flight Paths For Global Aerospace Companies And Defense Contractors Continue To Diverge

However, we don't believe these factors significantly affect our ratings on aerospace and defense companies as much as other, more industry-specific factors do. For example, demand for commercial aircraft stems from long-term increases in global air traffic, airline profitability, and the need to replace old, less-efficient aircraft. Worldwide air traffic in turn depends on global GDP, trade flows, and increases in per capita wealth, especially in developing countries. Our economists expect global GDP growth in 2013 to be similar to 2012 at 2.6% and to accelerate in 2014. High oil prices can limit airlines' profitability and their ability to purchase new aircraft. But airlines could also decide to replace older, more fuel-thirsty aircraft if they expect fuel prices to remain high for an extended period. Airliners are very expensive and can last for up to 25 years, so these long-term trends influence aircraft demand more than quarterly fluctuations in traffic or airline profits, except in extreme cases such as war, terrorist attacks involving aircraft, or global recessions. By contrast, defense spending generally doesn't depend on economic growth--it's largely a product of foreign policy and governments' strategy to meet perceived security needs. But it can be vulnerable to stagnation or declines when budget deficits are significant, as at present.

Effects on ratings
Rating activity in the commercial aerospace and defense sector has been relatively high in recent months, with most actions triggered by declining defense spending at smaller contractors, as well as commercial aerospace suppliers struggling to increase production and develop products for new aircraft: We affirmed the ratings and revised the outlook to stable from positive on aerostructures supplier Triumph Group Inc. due to a delayed improvement in credit ratios resulting from a debt-financed acquisition and increased capital spending. We affirmed the ratings and revised the outlook to stable from negative on government services provider DynCorp International Inc. on higher earnings and lower debt. We affirmed the ratings and revised the outlook to stable from negative on the world's largest defense contractor, Lockheed Martin Corp., because we believe the company will continue to generate strong cash flow despite pressure on earnings due to defense budget cuts. We lowered the ratings one notch on aerospace component supplier TransDigm Inc. following a large debt-financed dividend, the second in less than a year. We affirmed the rating and revised the outlook to negative from stable on rifle manufacturer Colt Defense LLC due to deteriorating liquidity. We affirmed the ratings on aerostructure suppliers Spirit Aerosystems Inc. and LMI Aerospace Inc., but we revised the outlook to negative from stable on both due to operational issues and problems developing new products. We placed the ratings on avionics supplier Rockwell Collins Inc. on CreditWatch with negative implications after it announced the debt-financed acquisition of ARINC Inc., whose ratings we placed on CreditWatch with positive implications. We subsequently indicated that we would likely lower the ratings on Rockwell Collins one notch and withdraw the ratings on ARINC once the transaction is complete. We affirmed the ratings and revised the outlook to negative from stable on Sequa Inc., which repairs aircraft engine parts, due to lower earnings. We lowered the ratings one notch on defense contractor Hunter Defense Technologies Inc. and assigned a developing outlook due to liquidity concerns. We assigned ratings to two new issuers, engine component manufacturer Dynamic Precision Group Inc. and government services provider Pacific Architects & Engineers Inc.

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Industry Economic And Ratings Outlook: Flight Paths For Global Aerospace Companies And Defense Contractors Continue To Diverge

We rate roughly 55 aerospace and defense companies and about 80% of our ratings have stable outlooks. As such, we don't expect to change many ratings during the next 12 months.

Industry Ratings Outlook

Commercial aerospace keeps flying high
Large commercial aircraft orders remain strong so far in 2013, having already exceeded the 2,200 for all of 2012 and could exceed the recent peak of over 2,500 in 2011. Although orders are likely to be lower in 2014, huge backlogs should keep production increasing for the next few years. Growing air traffic is helping fuel new orders: Global air travel was up 5% in the first nine months of 2013, and the International Air Transport Assn. (IATA) forecasts that growth in 2014 will be stronger at 5.8% due to lower expected fuel prices, which should limit fare increases, and an improving outlook for global economic growth. Total airline profits declined to $7.4 billion in 2012 from $8.2 billion in 2011, but the IATA forecasts that profits could improve to $11.7 billion in 2013 and $16.4 billion in 2014. One reason large commercial airline orders have been stronger than we expected in 2013 was that oil prices remained high, which prompted airlines to order new, more efficient aircraft. Still, the weak economies in some parts of the world and the high level of orders in 2011-2013 are likely to result in lower orders in 2014, perhaps significantly. Boeing received gross orders for 1,128 aircraft in 2013 (through Nov. 5), most of which were for its new more efficient 737 MAX. This is modestly lower than the 1,265 orders Airbus SAS (a unit of European Aeronautic Defence and Space Co. N.V.,) has received through Oct. 31, led by its new A320 NEO. The two aircraft manufacturers' combined orders have exceeded 2,200 a year since 2011 and could approach the 2007 industry peak of 2,800 orders this year if all of the orders and commitments at the recent Dubai Airshow are converted to firm orders by year-end.

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Industry Economic And Ratings Outlook: Flight Paths For Global Aerospace Companies And Defense Contractors Continue To Diverge

Chart 1

Deliveries increased significantly in 2012 because both Airbus and Boeing determined that their current backlogs are too high, at seven to eight years' worth of production, and have either boosted output or are in the process of doing so for most models. Boeing delivered 601 aircraft, up 26% from 2011, including 46 787s and 31 747-8s, its newest models. The company delivered the most 737s ever in a year. It increased production to 38 a month, is on the way to 42 a month by next year, and has recently announced plans to increase production to 47 a month by 2017. However, Boeing has also said it will be lowering 747 production to 1.5 a month from 2 currently due to weak demand in the air cargo market. Last year Airbus had a more modest increase of 10%, to 588 deliveries, making 2012 the first year since 2002 that Boeing has shipped more aircraft than Airbus, which is likely to happen again in 2013. Boeing's projections show more moderate production increases for 2013. It expects production of 635 to 645 planes, only a 6% to 8% rise, and Airbus expects to produce more than 600 aircraft compared with 588 in 2012. The lower growth rates are partially due to most models reaching near-term production rate targets and the continued issues preventing Boeing from making faster deliveries of its 787. We believe the planned production rates are sustainable for at least the next few years, barring a spike in fuel prices, a significant deterioration in global economic growth, or a contraction in available aircraft financing. Another risk is that the supply chain will have difficulty keeping up with not only the higher production rates but also

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Industry Economic And Ratings Outlook: Flight Paths For Global Aerospace Companies And Defense Contractors Continue To Diverge

the introduction of new models over the next five years. Among those are the Boeing 737 MAX, new derivatives of the 787 and 777, and the Airbus A350 and A32O NEO. In fact, we have revised the outlooks on three aerostructure suppliers (one to stable from positive and two to negative from stable) so far this year for this reason. Aircraft financing has so far been sufficient to support planned deliveries, and we don't see European banks retreating from the market as a significant risk.
Chart 2

Boeing's new 787 has had a number of teething problems since the first delivery in the fall of 2011, including the three-month grounding earlier this year due to a battery fire, but we believe the program will ultimately be very successful. So far in 2013 (through Nov. 5), Boeing received 132 net orders for the aircraft and has delivered 98 since 2011. Backlog stands at 884, including 396 for the 787-9, which will begin deliveries next year, and 90 for the recently launched 787-10. Boeing expects to deliver more than 60 aircraft in 2013, and it recently announced plans to increase production from 10 a month by year-end to 12 a month in 2016 and 14 a month by 2020. Airbus' response to the 787, the A350XWB, remains in development. The first flight was in June 2013, and the company expects its first delivery in mid-2014. Airbus has 764 aircraft in backlog. Boeing recently launched two new versions of its very popular 777 widebody, the 777-8X and 777-9X, at the Dubai

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Airshow after receiving 259 orders and commitments from three Middle Eastern airlines and the German airline Lufthansa. The 777-8X will replace the 777-200ER and compete with the A350-900. The larger 777-9X will compete with the A350-1000 and could replace the 747-400 on some routes. Boeing expects to make the first deliveries of the new aircraft around 2020. Airbus expects to begin deliveries of its A320 NEO, which has new, more fuel-efficient engines from Pratt & Whitney and CFM International, in 2015. Airbus has received approximately 2,350 orders for the new model since announcing it in 2010. In response, Boeing introduced the 737 MAX, which will have new engines from CFM and for which Boeing has received more than 1,600 orders. Boeing expects to make the first delivery in 2017 to launch customer Southwest Airlines Co., which ordered 150 737 MAX-8 aircraft. Canada-based Bombardier has begun flight-testing of its 110-to-135 seat C-series aircraft, which competes with the smallest Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 models and some large regional jets, but orders so far have been only a modest 177. The other major segments of the commercial aerospace industry, business and regional jets, remain mostly weak. Business jet flight hours have increased, and the inventory of used aircraft has declined, but we expect only a modest increase in production in 2013, with perhaps more substantial improvement in 2014. Sales prospects vary significantly by plane size: Demand for large business jets is fairly solid, but sales of small and midsize jets are quite poor. The regional jet market remains weak, too, though modest demand exists for larger jets (with 70 or more seats) and turboprops, which are more fuel-efficient on shorter routes.

U.S. defense companies brace for federal spending cuts

Defense contractors are facing an entirely different set of circumstances than the commercial sector, and their prospects are for flat to declining demand for the next few years. The U.S. Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA) requires a $487 billion reduction in planned defense spending over 10 years, and the triggering of the BCA's sequestration provision on March 1, 2013, increases the cuts another $500 billion. In addition, funding for the war in Afghanistan is declining as the U.S. military withdraws troops from the region. As part of the deal to end the 16-day government shutdown in October, Congress passed a continuing resolution (CR) that funds the military and the rest of the government through Jan. 15, 2014. The CR limits funding to fiscal 2013 levels (after sequestration) and restricts new program starts, creating more uncertainty and disruptions for defense contractors. We don't believe the government shutdown substantially hurt most U.S. defense contractors' revenues, earnings, or cash flows. However, service-contract work that was suspended during the shutdown may not be made up. The fiscal 2013 cuts, which totaled about $37 billion for the military, have only modestly impeded U.S. defense contractors, so far. Most are reporting low- to mid-single-digit percent revenue declines, although some companies that primarily provide services or have large exposure to the declining U.S. military presence in Afghanistan reported more significant decreases (see chart 3). The modest declines so far are partly because budget reductions are to appropriations, or the amount the Dept. of Defense (DoD) is authorized to spend, not actual cash outlays. In general, it can take the DoD up to three years to spend funds allocated to procurement and R&D accounts, which is where the bulk of large defense contractors derive their sales. However, DoD orders have, in most cases, declined more than sales, resulting in smaller backlogs for most companies

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Industry Economic And Ratings Outlook: Flight Paths For Global Aerospace Companies And Defense Contractors Continue To Diverge

(see chart 3), which likely indicates their revenue will continue falling the next few years. The DoD limited the cuts' consequences on defense contractors in 2013 by furloughing civilian employees, reducing operations and training, and using unobligated funds from prior years (funds previously appropriated but never spent) to make up some of the shortfall. In addition, some companies' revenues benefited from increased sales to foreign customers, although the government shutdown has resulted in some delays processing foreign orders. Margins have held steady or increased as companies reduced their workforces and closed facilities to match the lower demand, reduced overhead costs, and in some cases divested businesses that are likely to be the targets of future cuts.
Chart 3

Unless Congress acts to change current legislation, in January 2014, sequestration cuts to defense spending will increase $20 billion from fiscal 2013 levels. We don't believe the additional reductions will materially damage the credit quality of large defense contractors because they have significant program diversity, solid liquidity, and are likely to continue generating substantial free cash flow even as revenues and earnings decline modestly. However, credit quality could deteriorate if these firms choose to offset lower earnings by increasing shareholder rewards or pursuing large debt-financed acquisitions. One positive development for large defense contractors is that rising interest rates are likely to result in a decline in pension liabilities when measured at year-end. That could offset the impact of lower earnings on credit quality and

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improve future cash flow by reducing pension contributions (both required and voluntary). The strain on smaller defense contractors is harder to determine without knowing exactly which programs will be targeted, but it is likely to be more substantial than on the larger companies because smaller players generally have much less program diversity and fewer financial resources. We believe the cuts are likely to fall most heavily on Army programs, service contracts (such as for training or maintenance), and short-cycle products (those ordered, produced, and delivered in less than a year). Reductions to large procurement programs are also possible, but the impact on companies' revenues and earnings won't likely materialize until after 2014. The DoD is also weighing its options to deal with the possibility that sequestration remains in place for the entire decade, but it has made no final decisions. The first option is to operate with a smaller but still highly capable military. This would involve cutting more than 100,000 additional soldiers from the Army, which is already planning to go from a wartime high of about 570,000 in 2010 to 490,000 by 2017. The Marine Corps, which is already being reduced to 182,000 in 2016 from a high of about 205,000 in 2009, could shrink to 150,000. The Air Force is also considering cutting the number of fighter, bomber, and cargo aircraft and the Navy is considering reducing the number of ships in the fleet to address the lower budget. Another option is to curtail modernization programs but make fewer cuts in the force's size, which would likely diminish most defense contractors' revenues, earnings, and cash flow significantly because it would limit R&D spending and reduce funding to upgrade weapons systems or procure new ones. However, it is difficult to assess how individual companies will fare until the DoD identifies specific program cuts. Overall, budget reductions will likely result in lower revenues and earnings for most defense contractors, although we expect the declines to be fairly moderate. Some contractors may benefit from additional sales to foreign customers, especially in the Middle East and Asia, but this is unlikely to fully offset lower U.S. demand. Firms are reacting to weaker demand projections by lowering costs, divesting business segments that were in less favorable areas, pursuing acquisitions to supplement core capabilities, and expanding into adjacent markets.

European defense contractors: Pinning hopes on export markets

We view Europe's defense contractors' credit outlook as stable. Good prospects in export markets, particularly in the Middle East, could counterbalance the slowing defense spending in European countries. Europe's top-tier defense companies also continue to have an interest in gaining greater access to the U.S. market. Regulatory hurdles are likely to remain an obstacle to acquisitions by Europe's defense contractors of U.S. companies. The largest transactions to date, by BAE Systems PLC (Armor Holdings Inc., United Defense Industries Inc., and others) and Finmeccanica SpA (DRS Technologies), have involved companies based in countries (the U.K. and Italy, respectively) with close political ties to the U.S. The U.K. Europe's largest defense spender, the U.K., undertook its most extensive review of the country's defense budget in October 2010, with its Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR). According to the new budget, the U.K. expects to reduce defense spending by a cumulative 8% by 2015 (in real terms). We first observed the ramifications of the SDSR in BAE System's 2011 results--the company reported a roughly 2% decline in revenues on a group level due to the U.K. Ministry of Defence's revised spending priorities. The effects on BAE in 2012 and 2013 were likewise moderate.

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Italy Although Italy's 2010 austerity budget cut defense spending, it didn't significantly change spending for defense procurement. The second round of defense reviews in 2011, however, lowered defense procurement spending to 3.8 billion in 2012 from 5.4 billion in 2011. For 2013, we expect this category to stay at the low 2012 levels with only moderate increases in 2014. Italy's budget allocates the majority of its defense procurement spending to key international programs, such as the Eurofighter. We expect the procurement spending reductions to have the most pronounced impact on Finmeccanica, which derives about 20% of group revenues from Italy's domestic market. France France, also a large defense spender, has decided to spread orders for larger programs (e.g., combat jets and frigates) over a longer time frame. And, since the presidential elections in May 2012, we haven't observed significant changes or amendments to France's defense procurement spending. So far, this strategy hasn't had a material, immediate effect on rated issuers, notably Thales S.A. However, we believe spreading defense spending over several years and the potential for more moderate growth could change the defense landscape in the next few years.

Smooth Sailing For Some, Pockets Of Turbulence For Others

The global commercial aerospace and defense industry is continuing to grow despite some bumpy weather, with some companies soaring and others experiencing pockets of severe turbulence. While both the defense and commercial sectors will remain generally stable, we expect those companies that serve the commercial airline industry to do better than their counterparts that focus on military-related goods.

Related Criteria And Research

Related Criteria
Key Credit Factors: Methodology and Assumptions On Risks In The Aerospace And Defense Industries, June 24, 2009

Related Research
A Possible Government Shutdown Could Add To Defense Contractors Woes, Sept. 26, 2013 The Proposed Fiscal 2014 U.S. Defense Budget Doesn't Dispel Uncertainty Surrounding Sequestration, April 12, 2013 Sequestration Won't Immediately Affect U.S. Defense Contractor Ratings, March 1, 2013

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