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Neither
Hayek
Sunstein
nor Habermas
Cass
R.
Received: ? Springer
/ Published
online:
16 August
2007
The of and
rise
of
information, correct
raises
of marketplace for information along kind that J?rgen Habermas describes? be any understood equivalent as of
the elicitation and about important questions to check itself. Do allow blogs people as as a kind the blogosphere operating terms? Or is it a vast public meeting of the article, I argue the blogosphere because knowledge characterize venue cocoons. for Haber I conclude that cannot it lacks the
gathering argue
that
as they do other social interactions, blogosphere masian to the creation and perhaps of information deliberation, leading to the of responses by briefly canvassing partial problem polarization. Information Condorcet
Keywords
Hayek
Blogs
aggregation
Jury Theorem
One
the most of the first years of the twenty-first unanticipated developments can serve to elicit and aggregate the remarkable rise of weblogs, which the or "blogs," held by countless contributors. at a truly have been growing Weblogs, so that any current rate?so much account out of date. As of will grow rapidly of been
century
has
and Daily of
Kos?have
maintaining
their own
about the elicitation and aggregation many questions are the operation of democracy If countless itself. people be able to act as fact-checkers and as supplemental they should
raises
This essay draws on some discussion Farrell for suggestions and help. C.R. Sunstein (ISI) of Chicago Law School, University e-mail: csunstei@midway.uchicago.edu
by Sunstein
(2006).
I am very grateful
to Dan Drezner
and Henry
Chicago,
USA
4y Springer
88
information media. should to find sources, of not for one
Public Choice
(2008)
134: 87-95
only
If hundreds be corrected
thousands
quickly. range
an astounding that
another but also for prominent members of the mass are reading of people the most then errors prominent blogs, No one doubts that the blogosphere enables interested readers of opinions and facts. serves who as a huge market, the need for in a way that to obtain the
If the blogosphere
we might believe claims of Friedrich information.
society dispersed we might as a kind of gigantic think that the blogosphere operates Alternatively, town meeting, in a way that fits well with the claims of J?rgen Habermas and others who of the public and Habermasian of speak of the operation understandings sphere. Hayekian the blogosphere lie behind many of the contemporary of it. celebrations on both is to investigate here and to cast doubt of these understandings. purpose My
cannot I suggest that the blogosphere in Hayekian it lacks the pre because fashion, operate to it). for Hayek's the price (or any reasonable system requisite understanding: analogue I also that the problem of group raises serious for efforts suggest polarization problems to understand some terms. But the blogosphere in even vaguely Habermasian of my ob jections force. raise I conclude empirical with and imaginable questions, some notations about what we answers empirical now know. could diminish their
1 Hayek,
prices, and blogs blogger, federal court of appeals Judge Richard Posner has explicitly
about the price system on behalf of blogs, emphasizing their poten
An accomplished
voke Hayek's
in
argument
reportage argument of
deal
of
about
the operation
marvel
Posner's himself.
it, we to
have social
to spend thought
a little
time
is captured
the information that the great advantage of prices is that they aggregate both and the more assem be of numerous far material than could people, incorporating possibly or board. Hayek nature bled by any central the unshared (1984, p. 212) emphasizes planner of information?the bits of and knowledge contradictory "dispersed incomplete frequently which That knowledge includes facts about certainly possess." into and all of these must be taken and tastes, preferences stresses im above all the "very market. (1984, p. 214) by a well-functioning Hayek sense cannot in be scientific the but which called portant unorganized knowledge possibly of general rules: the knowledge of the particular of time and place." circumstances the separate it also individuals products, account but includes all
4y Springer
Public Choice
(2008)
134: 87-95
89
that unorganized and dispersed or board. Cen person by any particular as the knowledge Taken held by particular people. be solved
is how
to elicit
a whole,
well-chosen when although another,
the knowledge held by those people is far greater than that held by even themost
about deliberating (1972, p. 123) claims groups: ... and as a body, they may surpass?collectively ... some not individually?the one part, some of the few best quality appreciate or and all together all." not that is Aristotle whether argument Hayek's appreciate experts. groups "all come together for free markets. Consider Aristotle's
diverse
was right about deliberation, the possibility of surpassing the quality of the few best certainly
does hold comes central is that the best solution from the price His claim Hayek's system. point is that in a system in which of relevant is dispersed facts among many knowledge people, act as an astonishingly concise and accurate and signaling device. prices coordinating They a sense that and in also because the itself it, incorporate dispersed knowledge publicize price as a signal to all. At the same the price has a wonderfully automatic time, operates system to respond to change. in its capacity If fresh shows information that quality, particularly a car, a watch?doesn't demand for it will television, work, always people's so too a the more becomes its fall, scarce, rapidly price. And when commodity suddenly users must to that The as a fact. market works not well because respond whole, remarkably can see all its features, but because the relevant is communicated information any participant and through prices. claims that it "is more than a metaphor to describe the (1984, pp. 219-220) Hayek as a kind of or a system for registering of telecommunica system price machinery changes, tions which enables individual to watch the movement of a few pointers." produces merely as a marvel, describes this process and adds that he has chosen that (1984, p. 220) Hayek on purpose so as "to shock word out of the the reader we with which often complacency take the working of the mechanism for granted." Hence to everyone a product?a
3 No prices and no Hayek We can see in this light why Judge Posner is drawn to Hayek
Hayek's system wide concern operates range
the operation of the blogosphere. he believes that the price society; certainly come to But allows
an extraordinarily attention. In a general public runs into serious the analogy aggregate, to incorporate
The
the views of those who participate of the market, device cannot be found marvel, aggregating Hayek's fered instead is a stunningly diverse rants, range of claims, perspectives, and nonsense. sense, non-facts, True, many
of knowledge, local knowledge, to including that process well be seen as Hayekian. might Most the blogosphere not does problems. important, a wide in one place, and tastes. There is range of opinions sense, in the blogosphere. there. What is of insights, lies, facts,
material
a lot of information; for example, assem blogs aggregate instapundit.com, sources. from many as Drezner and Farrell Perhaps, (this volume) suggest, who from elsewhere in the blogosphere, should be consid bloggers, gather material an mechanism sorts. of this mechanism exacerbate the However, aggregating may well towards of a few have or rants and nonsense, a poor of rather substitute biases. blogs than for individuals exceedingly the number it. Not counteracting the price mechanism, only are the arbitrary but some of these the overall useful reader for
also blogs,
strong other
This that
metrics
fi
Springer
90
whether elite reliable information. that many A of
Public Choice
(2008)
134: 87-95
determining written by
blogs
provide
examination
suggests strongly primarily bloggers or information and those their existing that reinforce views items of opinion or in that to find a Superblog, in general It is not possible areas, particular we in correcting to the price that succeeds In other words, lack a blog system. ones by can we distinguish from unreliable reliable truths. Nor blogs assembling
at how much learn a great deal, traffic Those who consult blogs will looking they receive. falsehoods from facts. hard time separating but they will have an exceedingly incen in the blogosphere lack an economic There is another usually point. Participants are not involved little to gain in any kind of trade, and most of the time they have tive. They or simply or to lose. If they spread it may well be that they offer their opinion, falsehoods, sacrifice most little dramatic or nothing. falsehoods the their reputation will not; perhaps suffer, but perhaps Perhaps or at least distortions and hence readers. Most will draw attention
some blog trade on markets. do not have the economic stake of those who True, bloggers But most their credibility. and may well have a stake in preserving gers attract advertising, on revenues extent to in the do the which and not, blogosphere depend bloggers advertising are on to themselves sell truthfulness is uncertain. advertisers trying Many political blogs are unlikely to object to appeal to those with beliefs. strong partisan They products designed to exaggerations By their very In many ways, those including it is because of is far from and mistakes. Habermas to the prejudices of their target audiences. that appeal on facts as well as values. and contentious positions are curious can find a wide who this is a virtue, for people range of views, that oppose their own. But there are no prices here, and if truth is to emerge, and semi-falsehoods blogs nature, offer rival the of the marketplace competition effects One of the undeniable to another possible of blogs This marketplace particular is to spread misunderstandings of blogs?one rooted understanding of ideas.
in
4 The blogosphere
To a large extent, will I have
as public sphere
is a place the blogosphere better than one rooted to Aristotle's (1972, p. for deliberation, a deliberative and perhaps to delib and prices. With respect "all that when diverse groups suggestion
in markets 123)
one
part,
as a body, not individually? although to the process of de contribute who ... some can bring and moral his share of goodness appreciate prudence; is a clear all." Here, and all together then, another, suggestion appreciate on "the quality of the few best." More may improve deliberating together, same from dis "The benefits writes of the (1971, pp. 358-359) possibility: and are many that even of them No one are limited in knowledge legislators representative or can make all the others know, knows everything Discussion is a way of combining stresses and the the same and
in the fact
to reason.
in concert. that they can draw the range of arguments." Habermas (1999, pp. 940-941), to allow discourse victory by "the
information
designed
theme,
norms
and prac
is supposed
to grant to be public and inclusive, equal to require and to diffuse any kind sincerity This communicative of the better argument. space topics. for the mobilization of the best
commu of force
structure available
is expected contributions
a deliberative relevant
the most
4? Springer
Public Choice
(2008)
134: 87-95
91
pp.
1-4)
famous
"ideal
speech
to operate, of
the emergence
to the that
5 An experiment
But there
in Colorado
problem that problem, for the general claim let us venture far from that deliberative the blogosphere processes and consider will have a small
is a serious To see
this virtue.
and assembled into together brought of each group were asked to deliberate Should states allow same-sex couples a
action"
by giving
the United
States
consisted from
of
"liberal"
and
"conservative"
and five on
tended
toward
of Springs. State" groups?five groups three issues, and five whose were asked People of group discussion. to state What
In the parlance
issues. minutes
their opinions was the effect The positions among favored more they an strongly strongly results after liberals;
after
group,
members made
ended civil
up with unions
more more
discussion
among
conservatives.
treaty it after
global
discussion.
before discussion; warming they favored were on that treaty before neutral discussion; favorable toward discussion, toward affirmative affirmative action after became action before
became
conservatives
affirmative
liberal
experiment
had
an more
independent
effect:
It made thus
groups started
squelched internal
diversity.
groups
bit
of
were The disagreements as a result reduced fifteen-minute disagreement. discussion. Even in their anonymous consen showed far more statements, group members sus after discussion than before. It follows that discussion to widen the rift between helped on all three issues. liberals and conservatives some Before liberal groups were, discussion, to some close conservative The was result of discussion to fairly groups. far more sharply. Let us suppose, not implausibly, that the blogosphere is inadvertently the Col replicating orado to sort themselves into communities of like-minded experiment, by allowing people issues, divide them If so, we will people. lem is that deliberation what lem orado. have will a serious ensure for the Habermasian The problem understanding. more extremism and more internal homogeneity?hardly the better argument. to understand what To see prob on some
and
happened
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92 6 Group polarization
The
Public Choice
(2008)
134: 87-95
an example of the well-established of is merely phenomenon experiment a a more ex in members end which up group deliberating typically of polarization, by treme position in line with their tendencies 1985, pp. 202 (Brown before deliberation began in It has been found is a usual with 206). Group groups. pattern deliberating polarization Colorado group of studies involving who over a dozen countries. It is undoubtedly happening on the
hundreds
blogosphere. For example, tions, there United will increase is specific States
those
their evidence
and are suspicious of its inten States, if of view. Indeed, disapproval points suspicion they exchange of this phenomenon citizens of France: the among they dislike disapprove of the United and and trust the United States a lot less, after a clue not as one another they talk with to the roots of extremism by deliberation. value (Turner such are asked, 1987, as how on a
Group polarization provides terrorism. All these can be fueled, for issues has is below been sea of fact found level. as well
reduced, of
occurs
issues factual
152-153).
far Sodom
on obscure Or suppose
questions,
that people
bounded scale of zero to eight, how likely it is that a terrorist attack will occur in the United
States certain," in the next seven year?with zero indicating "zero likely," group extreme median is three, indicating, answers The members "overwhelmingly from a deliberating move toward more probability," six "more will points is six, the group tend on eight probable to reveal the indicating "absolutely than not," and five group polarization, on their usually be two
scale,
to group
(Sunstein
all of
them
(Brown most
and most
involves by other
to the arguments
any group with some initial inclination, the views of most people in the group will inevitably be skewed in the direction of that inclination. Suppose that the majority position within a
group terrific numerous of some, is a serious is that global warming problem a As statistical the arguments matter, job. than but not the all, arguments of pointing the arguments or that the incumbent that initial favoring in the other direction. from lead a is doing president more be will position will As have heard of a result
group
the various deliberation arguments, hearing in line with what group members initially and in exactly the same direction. polarize, involves explanation members. other group favorably by or lesser extent, a function greater The second social
people
extreme
Through
this process,
many
want comparison. People usually Sometimes stated publicly people's to present of how themselves. they want
views Once
some will adjust their positions at least slightly in the direction of the
In a left-wing for example, those who lean to the left will be more group, more to the this reason well end somewhat left. up leaning they might stresses of group links among the close confidence, explanation polarization corroboration more by extreme others (Baron et al. 1996). As from in their beliefs. people others confidence, gain tends to increase
and
become
Agreement
4y Springer
Public Choice
(2008)
134: 87-95
93
and
for
this that
reason are
sure
more become opinions cause more they become reading a sense larization to conform identity (Brown larization as "the same like-minded
they extreme
with
one
contexts,
because
corroborated, Many
confident
blogs,
their views.
that
1987). may polarize People see as their own group. typical within are norms to become the in-group salient, likely they experiment, referred many to some often groups group become were with all whom
liberals."
Democrats
more
sharply of an
reason. is a further likely to think in-group who to be point. from a member are es in-group, they seem to It is also likely right. from that come pressures rejecting of out-group members have far
persuasive.
arguments
the views
less force and might even be irrelevant (Brown 1985, p. 211). Should you really listen to
The systematically wrong? reputa to worry have about the views pressure rejecting of someone to be wrong like you? If a self-identified conservative usually thought by people hears arguments from someone who is known to be left of center, are likely those arguments tional to fall on deaf ears. The clear lesson is that when a group is highly cohesive, and when its someone to a group that you believe belongs will also be reduced: do you really to be
members
especially who
are closely
this
identified with
kind is not
it, polarization
confined
is especially
among the
likely?and
likely to be
characterizes
For blogosphere. which conservative the study blogs, sort themselves linked to by only
one example, study and liberal bloggers finds that 91% of the into identifiable
small of people groups logic of group polarization in contexts such as the political to the degree 2005) explores on two 1400 sides is
with each other. Focusing interacting are to like-minded sites. Hence the Powerlineblog.com, by 195 conservative is more a conservative blogs.
blog,
twenty-five
Dailykos.com, link
examined were
"A-List"
blogs,
a great Those
segregation. identifiable
and NationalReview.com, commitments, political were almost on cited same the side of the always by blogs political spectrum. Another Jason Gallo, and Matt Kane offers more study, by Eszter Hargittai, (this volume), detailed for the same general conclusions. the behavior of support Examining forty popular and and her coauthors find that like-minded blogs?half-liberal half-conservative?Hargittai views blogs, cite receive a great deal of reinforcement. likely On to list other the "blogrolls," conservatives, conservatives are far more to other readers referring are far more and liberals
side
by other bloggers,
amount of of cross-citation cross
they usually
as well. simply
sure,
plurality
citations
%1 Springer
94
cast volve on the views
Public Choice
(2008)
134: 87-95
contempt
substantive of view,
discussion.
a quarter that are being cited. Only of cross-ideological in posts across In this way, real deliberation is often occurring but only infrequently.
7 Polarizing
blogs?
it should if people truth is not be that the Habermasian clear view of the blogosphere are reading to their own preexisting that conform blogs to emerge, and polarization is nearly inevitable. likely more end up more conservatives will become liberal; to conservative blogs. It is reasonable to speculate
In light of this evidence, faces a particular problem beliefs. If this is so, the Liberals, conservative
that the Colorado experiment finds itself replicated in the blogosphere every day, with poten
because go to extremes they are consulting simply of blogs makes it all the easier to live in for people some bloggers, echo chambers of their own design. Indeed and many readers of blogs, live cocoons. in information are often on the Shared salient identities in a way that blogosphere, makes both more to be large. polarization likely and more likely results. tially harmful others who think as People they do. sometimes The rise In short, exist to aggregate to the Hayekian the challenge the dispersed information understanding that emerges is that no prices The challenge posts. people's are often self-sorting, people reading of the blogosphere from
is that because of understanding more of view, in a way that can breed confidence, greater points uniformity and more extremism. From the Habermasian this is nothing groups, point of the view, do add to the range held a range of available hold out they certainly of people. Human beings and do not restrict themselves and suggests,
to celebrate. Of promise curious, points erate play when course of blogs views, numbers the are to
aggregating and many people of view with which as an extraordinary and beneficial minds are in a way already. The
information do read
antecedently
a large many
here, but
knowledge.
lead point
to work is likely best aggregation are be that reasons and information important to corrections and real creativity. To some extent, this is that while the price collects system automatically come from the discipline of the market for ideas.
information,
the only
safeguards
8 Evidence
of the claims I have been here are theoretical and conceptual, but they also offering an empirical dimension. No work could show that the empirical blogosphere actually a "price," does but it could to that the blogosphere is often working show well produce elicit and aggregate rather than disseminating information, perhaps by correcting widespread errors. social work could that the risk of group show is Certainly empirical polarization Some small, a wide operates of because as it actually ensures the blogosphere that many operates, no of While to show views. evidence is range empirical likely as a us a great it could tell perfectly functioning public sphere, or most that deal read people the blogosphere the nature about
have
the promise, and potential risk, for democracy. We know all too little about the blogosphere. But as I have suggested, there is good
stages.
remains in its earliest Empirical analysis are mostly evidence that many bloggers linking
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Public Choice
(2008)
134: 87-95
95
they them.
link
to opinions there
that diverge
from
their own,
it is
conclusion
is that
identifiable of the
conservatives the
is a significant divide between do not usually link to one topics. and new To be sure, many Just like the
discuss different
same
are using people of which Internet great like virtue, the above
to learn
views
topics.
Internet of
is certainly good on blogs can if linking behavior to think it is reasonable that many readers cocoons
and this is a range of options, On balance, the blogosphere, for democracy, because it increases the be are taken as a proxy one-sided for
obtaining
information
and
echo
problem
for and ex
because
is inevitable.
blunders
tremism are highly likely, not in spite of the blogosphere but because of it. The question, on
which response. to offer more the jury is very much One idea possible links to those whose link out, by way views can private and public conclusion: Public-spirited from We their could do by way of do well would bloggers own. Liberal could blogs easily imagine explicit or
regularly
to conservative
implicit "deals" among bloggers with competing opinions, producing mutual linking. Such deals would increase the likelihood that people will be exposed to different perspectives;
they would also reflect a healthy degree of mutual respect.
References and the 2004 election: divided they blog. Avail Adamic, L., & Glance, N. (2005). The political blogosphere able at http://www.blogpulse.com/papers/2005/AdamicGlanceBlogWWW.pdf. Aristotle Press (translated by E. Barker). (1972). Politics. London: Oxford University Baron, R., Hoppe, S. I., Kao, C. F, Brunsman, B., Linneweh, B., & Rogers, D. (1996). Social corroboration and opinion extremity. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 32, 537-560. Brown, R. (1985). Social psychology (2nd ed.). New York: Free Press. J. (1979). What is universal pragmatics? In Communication and the evolution of society. Boston: Habermas, Beacon (translated by T. McCarthy). J. (1999). Between facts and norms: Habermas, 940-941. Hastie, an author's reflections. Denver University Law Review, 937,
an deliberation and ideological R., Schkade, D., & Sunstein, C. R. (2007). Political amplification: experimental investigation. California Law Review. in society. In C. Nishiyama & K. Leube (Eds.), The essence of Hayek. Hayek, F (1984). The use of knowledge Stanford: Hoover. to the Becker-Posner Introduction Posner, R. (2004). blog. http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/archives/ 1 .html, December. 2004/12/introduction_to_ Rawls, J. (1971). A theory of justice. Cambridge: Belknap. Schkade, D., Sunstein, C. R., & Kahneman, Law Review, 100, 1139-1175. Sunstein, Sunstein, D. (2000). Deliberating about dollars: the severity shift. Columbia
C. (2006). Infotopia: how many minds produce knowledge. New York: Oxford University Press. C. R., Schkade, D., Ellman, L. M., & Sawicki, A. (2006). Are judges political? An empirical inves tigation of the federal judiciary. Washington: Brookings. the social group: a s elf-categorization Turner, J. C. (1987). Rediscovering theory. New York: Blackwell.
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