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Second World Bank/IMF Financial Sector Liaison Committee Seminar January 11, 2000
Systemic crisis
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Non-crisis countries
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Micro
Legacies
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Second World Bank/IMF Financial Sector Liaison Committee Seminar January 11, 2000
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Noncompliance by authorities in major elements of Fund program Loss of confidence in overall economic policy; flight from currency: runs on banks Initial closures handled efficiently; inadequate legal framework for follow up
Last-minute refusal to allow publicity hampered powers of IBRA staff to control the banks Little immediate impact on borrowing from BI (these eased in March 1998 after new sanctions were introduced on such borrowings) Example of soft open bank resolution
Uniform treatment focusing on liquidity criteria; efficient closure process; deposits immediately available at designated state bank Still a lack of adequate legal powers; IBRA could only transfer out the assets of the closed banks in early 1999. Initial runs on some BTO banks tailed off within a few weeks. Additional BTO bank (largest private bank) in May 1998 in wake of riots
Four banks, including second largest private bank (5% of banking sector), closed. Deposit transfers carried out efficiently. Open bank resolution, in this case a prelude to bank closure. Requires full confidence in the guarantee Strategy evolving as combination of open bank resolution and closures
March 13 announcement: 73 banks A category (6% of banking sector); 9 banks B category (10% of sector) and met recapitalization conditions; 7 banks (2% of sector) failed test, but had 80,000 depositors and were to be taken over by IBRA (BTO2); 38 banks (5% of sector) were C category or failed the conditions. Major exercise; much emphasis on uniform solvency criteria
Unfortunately, delays in initiating implementation meant interventions were not a surprise: worker resistance; probable management looting. Problems gradually overcome; interventions well received in the markets and by outside commentators.
Open bank resolution may be costly if there is no good replacement management available and/or the restructuring agency cannot establish firm control. In the initial stages the focus for action is likely to be on liquidity criteria; later it moves to solvency. Early introduction of best practice accounting, provisioning, classification rules. Action should be based on transparent, uniform, simple, and defensible criteria.
Closure process will lead to reduction in number of banks, hence boosting potential profitability of those remaining. Increase in state ownership likely, at least initially. State banks may be handled separately (on toobig-to fail grounds), but likely to be in at least as much need of operational restructuring.
Fernando Montes-Negret
World Bank
Second World Bank/IMF Financial Sector Liaison Committee Seminar January 11, 2000
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Rapid financial liberalization (198889): freeing of interest rates, abolition of directed credit rules and drastic reduction of reserve requirements. Misguided bank privatizations (199192): No foreign entry allowed, new inexperienced bankers, non-transparent licensing (no fit & proper tests), little capital, HLBO, expensive banks: given true condition of loan portfolios and final sale price (between 2.2 and 3.1 book value). Main driver: Maximize fiscal revenue (US$ 12.5 billion).
199194 credit boom: Domestic credit grew 8 times faster than GDP: asset inflation, over-exposure to real estate sector and FX-denominated loans; Inadequate accounting and disclosure; Poor supervision, regulation and enforcement Distorted incentives: for owners, managers, borrowers, depositors and supervisors (conflicts of interest).
Large current account deficit (7% of GDP) financed with short-term capital inflows; BOMs low liquidity: High (Short-term FX Debt/ FXR): 2.6 in November, 1994; BOMs vulnerability to attack on currency by domestic residents: (M2/FXR) ratio as high as 9 prior to the December currency crisis.
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for bank depositors and lenders in the inter-bank market (universal deposit insurance) for bank managers (not replaced or replaced too late after looting banks-Confia); for borrowers (bailouts and low cost of nonrepayment, contaminating portfolio and promoting a cultura de no pago under a lax legal/judicial framework); for federal budget (small cash outlays).
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Why the medicine ended up killing the patient: FOBAPROAs zero-coupon bonds and negative carry-carryovers; Need for legal/judicial reforms; Economic recovery without domestic credit: restoring bank lending to the private sector after 5 years of real decline.
Stocktaking of conditions of the Mexican banking system requested by the Banks Operations Committee; Fundamental disagreement with the Mexican authorities: extent of the insolvency and actions going forward; No illusions: No access to the information, no action (mid-97mid-99)- no WB lending; New determination to move towards a financial resolution of the crisis: The Bank Restructuring Facility Loan to IPAB; Challenges going forward: sale of assets, budgetary pressures and debt management issues.
Second, the main public concern of the supervisors was to give the impression that things were going well and that the banks were improving their financial condition along with the rapid recovery of the real sector of the economy (199697). A well orchestrated PR campaign was mounted to influence bank analysts in N.Y. However, the tide did not raise all the boats!: lending to the private sector continued to decrease in real terms and the financial condition of the banks worsened in 1998.
Third, ad hoc-ism and case-by-case deals, without a clear global strategy. It led to unfairness among banks, additional costs, particularly in attracting foreign banks, and bad, overly secretive, decisions. Lack of standardization in the debt instruments issued by FOBAPROA.
Fourth, excessively complex financial engineering solutions to hide the fact that limited cash was available for resolving the crisis ended up killing some banks (which ended up financing the government with a negative carry-over):the medicine killed the patient.
Fifth, the least cash solution is not the least cost solution. Incentives to show a tighter fiscal stance and poor consolidation of the broad public sector deficit led to minimize cash transfers to the banks, postponing the financial solution (as opposed to the accounting solution), resulting often in continuous negative cash-flows for distressed banks, raising considerably the fiscal cost of the crisis. Directly (higher bank losses) and indirectly (welfare loss resulting from lack of credit to a large group of domestic enterprises).
Sixth, declaring victory too early is a very dangerous strategy: It puts additional constraints to the actions of the supervisor and often creates incentives to hide past mistakes with additional sub-optimal decisions. Seventh, the tendency to identify the size of the fiscal resources available to the size of the cash needs of the system leads to incomplete and often unsustainable solutions.
Eighth, providing liquidity solutions to cases of insolvency almost always increases the fiscal cost of the crisis, particularly in cases when the old owners and managers who brought down the bank remain in place. Nine, bailouts via several purchases of bad assets should be avoided (up to three purchases were made for some banks). It creates perverse incentives and it is often a source of corruption and increased fiscal costs.
Tenth, delays in the sale of bad assets compound the problems of banks and raises the fiscal cost of the crisis, since assets lose value through time. Eleventh, in general, bank managers and owners responsible for bringing down their bank should be replaced. In Mexico the authorities felt partially guilty and tried to spare some owners not diluting them at great cost to the taxpayer.
Twelve, bank supervisors should not be in charge of resolving banks, intervening and managing banks, selling bad assets, etc. In the presence of conflicts of interests, it is likely that the quality of supervision and enforcement might be compromised. Thirteen, I cannot stress enough the importance of better disclosure.
David Scott
World Bank
Second World Bank/IMF Financial Sector Liaison Committee Seminar January 11, 2000
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Many institutions
Ad hoc
Finance ministry more involved Supplemental financial resources (expanded deposit gty, bank support, consultants) Ad-hoc lines of communication Players continue to function independently
Extraordinary
Purpose-built crisis management unit Temporary Extraordinary legal powers likely Ample resources Clear mandate and principles
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Capacity-building Capacity-building Strategies Strategies Political Political Financial Financial Human Human resources resources
Sale Sale of of assets assets back back to to private private sector sector (exit (exit strategy) strategy)
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Second World Bank/IMF Financial Sector Liaison Committee Seminar January 11, 2000
Financial statistics did not reflect true conditions Limited deposit mobilization: Nongovernment deposits amounted to 12 percent of GDP compared with 33 percent in Poland and 64 percent in the Czech Republic. Limited lending to corporate sector Portfolios concentrated (almost 60 percent) in GKOs Significant exposure to foreign exchange risk
Structure of banking system highly concentrated Top 10 banks held over 80 percent of banking system assets. Sberbank alone held 25 percent of system assets. Top 10 (20) banks held 55 percent (79 percent) of all foreign currency denominated assets. Small and medium banks held only 10 percent of their portfolio in GKOs.
Immediate focus on three areas Collecting accurate financial data on major banks (based on IAS) Strengthening legal framework for bank restructuring and bank liquidation Establishing institutional framework for bank restructuring
Financial results 15 of the 18 were deeply insolvent. The 15 had net negative net worth of R 211 billion (US$13.5 million) or 173 percent of assets. Some banks had negative net worth equivalent to over 400 percent of assets.
Qualitative results The cause of the banking crisis was more than illiquidity caused by the collapse of the GKO market. The largest charge against capital (34 percent) was from provisions for nonperforming loans. The second largest charge (28 percent) was for foreign exchange losses. The third largest cause (13 percent) was for GKO losses.