Capitalism, Global Warming and Peak Oil: End of an Era T.

Vijayendra
If a political activist can be defined as a person who is not only trying to promote the interests of his own particular group or class but trying, generally speaking, to create a better world, then she must first have a good understanding of the state of the present-day world. And then Vijayendras article is a must-read for her, because it is an e cellent short introduction to the subject. !aral !arkar Author of "#co !ocialism" and "$rises of $apitalism"

We are facing an end of an era crisis. Two crises have come together that have endangered life on our planet and have spelt an end of the capitalist era. The first is global warming and the second is peak oil. Global warming, since it threatens life on earth, demands, on moral grounds, to reduce consumption of fossil fuels immediately. Peak oil and peaking of other non renewable resources, brings down consumption of fossil fuels. Both will spell an end of capitalist era. %he system we live in today is called capitalism. &arge part of the world, notably 'orth America ()!A and $anada*, #urope, +apan, Australia and India are the main followers of this system. ,any other countries like -ussia, $hina and Vietnam who call themselves socialist also follow this system in a modified form. %his system is based upon e ploitation of the working classes and natural resources, resulting in creation of immense wealth, huge ine.ualities and environmental disaster. Industrial revolution and capitalism began in the /0th century with the steam engine1 that is, conversion of heat into motion. %his heat primarily came from burning fossil fuels. Initially it came from coal but in the 23th century oil and gas were added to it. 4ossil fuels have concentrated energy stored in them by degradation of plants slowly over millions of years. 5ecause of their high density of energy, it is possible to control ownership, mining, processing and selling of fossil fuels by a small class of capitalists. $apitalism as a system depends on availability of fossil fuels, which run all the transport and generate most of the electricity.

$apitalism is beset with several crises. %he first is the contradiction within its own class due to competition. !econd is the contradiction with the working classes which are e ploited and oppressed by it. ,any other poor people are also directly and indirectly affected by it and are increasingly opposing it. %he third is the over e ploitation of natural resources, particularly fossil fuels. Capitalism and Consumption of esour!es 6rowth is a necessity for the capitalist system. %hat is why we constantly hear of 678 (6ross 7omestic 8roduction, which is an overall indicator of growth of the country*, in the newspapers. 'ow growth re.uires consumption of resources. %his consumption of resources occurs at a "compound rate" (like with the compound interest rate that we learn in school* with respect to growth rate. A good way of understanding the relation between growth rate and consumption of resources is to find out that at a given growth rate, how many years it would take to double the consumption of resources. A simplified (but fairly accurate* formula is9 7 !growth rate " #o. of years in which the consumption of resources doubles %hus if we have / percent growth rate, in :3 years it will double. If we have 2 percent then in ;< years it will double and in :3 years it will be = times> If the growth rate is /3 percent it will double in : years - like our fi ed deposits used to double in : years when the interest rates were /3 percent. %hus capitalism has resulted in an enormous consumption of resources. Also this growth results in using up? corporate takeover of commons resources that the poor are dependent upon. @owever, the actual growth in amount of resources consumed over a period will depend upon the amount which you are already consuming them. %hus, say an advanced capitalist country consumes /33 units whereas a developing country consumes only /3. 7oubling for the former would mean 233 units whereas for the latter it means only 23 units. %hat is why the developing countries aim at a growth rate of /3 percent or so whereas the advanced countries cannot hope to have growth rate of more than 2-; percent. Another factor about doubling the consumption of resources is that with each doubling the consumption is greater than the sum total of all t"e !onsumption that has gone before it. &et see how this happens. %he doubling means a series like /, 2, =, 0, /A, ;2, A=, /20, 2<A, </2, /32= and so on. 'ow each successive term is greater than sum of all the previous terms. %hus, 0

is greater than /B 2B = C :. !imilarly /32= is greater than /B2B=B0B/AB;2BA=B/20B2<AB</2C/32;. As one can see, with each doubling the total increases to a bigger number. !o after a time the consumption of resources will be astronomical. 5ut the total .uantity of fossil fuels and other mineral resources available is finite1 and with time, a crisis must come. Dith the growth imperatives of capitalism, the crisis has come now. It is this astronomical consumption of resources that has given rise to the two crises9 /. 6lobal Darming and $limate $hange and 2. 8eak Eil and 8eaking of other 'on -enewable 'atural -esources Global Warming %he main cause of 6lobal Darming is burning of fossil fuels in astronomical .uantities by automobiles and coal based thermal power plants. %he conse.uent release of greenhouse gases (6@6!*, mainly $arbon 7io ide $E2, is so huge that it far e ceeds the earths capacity to absorb them. %he $E2 content in the atmosphere had been steady at about 203 parts per million (ppm* during the first /3,333 years in which agriculture provided food for humans, but that regimen changed with our use of fossil fuels energy. #$% to #&% ppm is no' a!!epted as t"e ma(imum for maintaining the warming under permissible limits, beyond which it may, become irreversible. 5ut today we are near =33 ppm> %his consumption of fossil fuels is not evenly distributed across the globe or among the people within a country. An average American puts into the atmosphere /0.< tons of $E emission per 2 year as compared to a mere /.0 tons by an average Indian. %hese averages hide the fact that most of the carbon output is contributed by the 23F rich of these countries and that the poor consume far less energy. %hus, there are e treme ine.ualities in 6@6 output within and across countries. %his level of release of 6@6! is relatively a new phenomenon. 4or tens of thousands of years, humanity e isted by slowly changing the natural environment and ecology to meet its survival needs. @owever, human activities of the present day that lead to increase in greenhouse gases are very specific. %hey do not pertain to the tribal or community-based village life that humanity led in the past and which even today billions of poor people lead. #mission of 6@6! is the direct conse.uence of coal-based steam technology that led to the Industrial -evolution and mass production of goods. In the 23th century, oil replaced as well as supplemented coal,

causing further pollution and 6lobal Darming. %he capitalist system has consumed so much coal and oil in such a short time that we are close to a critical point at which 6lobal Darming becomes irreversible. If that happens, much of life on earth will come to an end. ,any e perts believe that we have only /3 -23 years left to stop it. All attempts within the capitalist system have failed miserably and there is no alternative but that this system itself should be dismantled. As we have seen above, since the growth imperative is inherent in capitalism, this crisis cannot be solved within capitalism. !o on moral grounds, to save ourselves and life on earth, capitalism must come to an end and it is our moral duty to bring it to an end as soon as possible. (/* Peak Oil At the same time, the other crisis, that of "8eak Eil" makes the end of the capitalist system imminent. Although wide scale use of petroleum and its product has a history of only about /33 years, it has become central to the very e istence and functioning of modern societies. %his is mainly because transport and power are essential for modern societies. ,oreover, there is always an annual increase in the demand for fossil fuels, because the system survives through constant growth. Any decline in the supply of oil threatens the very basis of modern societies. 8eak Eil does e actly this and leads to the collapse of the system. Dhat e actly is 8eak EilG At the present rate of consumption, all available oil will be used up within this century. 5ut 8eak Eil is not about when we run out of oil, but rather, when the production of oil starts to decline, and this has already happened (233< - 2330* and we are witnessing the effects in a global dysfunction of capitalism which manifests as Heconomic recession. 8eak Eil crisis started with a rise in petroleum prices. In 2330, it reached )!7 /=: per barrel of oil. %his was one of the major factors in ushering in an economic crisis1 a recession in 'orth America, #urope and +apan. %his crisis is leading to a worldwide collapse of the global economic system. !ince the 2330 recession, capitalism has been beset with one global crisis after another. %he three traditional bastions of capital, )!A, #urope and +apan are in a permanent crisis. %he new powers $hina and India are plunging into a crisis this year. Dithin a few years the whole capitalist world will plunge into a crisis. (2*

Peak E)eryt"ing It is not just oil that is depleting. 'ow for the first time, in 23/2, a comprehensive set of figures has become available that discloses the use of the 'on -enewable 'atural -esources (''-* or minerals that have made industrialiIed civiliIation possible. De now have a comprehensive study that shows mineral usage rates. ,eticulous e amination of 0J of 'on--enewable minerals shows that usage rates are peaking and that remaining supplies are dwindling rapidly. %his means that continuance of e isting living standards that are dependent upon these minerals is impossible. (;* %he period of rapid global economic growth prior to the 6reat -ecession of 2330 is a thing of past. %he magnitude associated with global ''- re.uirements became historically unprecedented by 2330. 2330 was simply the transition point, the year during which the number of permanently scarce ''-s became sufficiently large to permanently depress future economic growth trajectories. All indications are that developed and developing economies will attempt to re establish and maintain or e ceed pre-recession economic output (678* levels and growth rates, both domestically and globally. @owever, that ever-increasing ''- scarcity has rendered these goals physically impossible. 5y 2330 )! economic output (678* had peaked permanently. And by this year, 23/;, rest of the world has followed suit, including India. %hat spells a doom to development within a short span of time - may be a decade or so. If no alternatives emerge we are facing a societal collapse not later than 23<3. $an the renewable save usG ene'able *atural esour!es + * s, -enewable 'atural -esources (-'-s* - i.e. air, water, soil (farmland*, forests, and other naturally occurring biota - enable all life, including human life. -'-s provided all or most of the life supporting essentials - water, food, energy, shelter and clothing - in pre-industrial societies. Dhat is their status nowG #arths ability to provide bounty from renewable resources is not available any more. In /JJ2 ,athis Dackernagel and Dilliam -ees attached figures to the annual bounty that humans obtain from what grows K forests, soils, fisheries, etc. 5uilding on this, a &iving 8lanet Inde now indicates the health of world biodiversity and an #cological 4ootprint provides a measure of our demands on #arths resources. T"ese figures s"o' t"at our !onsumption of t"e eart"-s

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rene'able resour!es is no' one and a "alf times t"e rate at '"i!" t"e eart" produ!es its bounty, 'it" t"e e(!ess !oming from !onsumption and depletion of ** . %hese findings are based upon e tensive studies, including trends in forests, fields, and in almost 0333 vertebrate species and demands of more and more people. %he conse.uence must be higher food prices. As we know this is already a reality. T"e Coming .amine 6lobal Darming and 8eak Eil have combined to create a famine in the world. 7ue to 6lobal Darming the summers are getting hotter and hotter. %he summer of 23/2 has been so hot it has burnt crops in the )!A, $anada, -ussia and Australia. 7ue to 8eak Eil, a large area of the world"s farmland is being used to produce bio fuels. And again, due to 8eak Eil, the inputs to agriculture9 fertiliser, pesticide and farm machinery - all dependent on oil - have become prohibitively e pensive. %his is in turn driving up food prices all over the world. As is well known, famine is caused both by decrease in production as well as increase in prices, which pushes food beyond the reach of the poor. 4amines do not just happen on their own account. %hey are perpetrated as the result of policies that privilege the rich and powerful, and, by implication, harm the poor. 5y the end of this year and the middle of ne t year, large scale famine is e pected all over the world. (=* %he capitalist system is imploding and collapsing. Dhether the collapse comes in a couple years or a decade, is not predictable. %here are too many fast changing variables, the most important being the people"s struggle against it and the vision of an alternative society. 5ut irrespective of when it happens, the world has to face either chaos or prepare for the transition into a society based on lower energy and greater e.uity. !uch a society will have different forms in different parts of the world, depending upon their history. C"aos or Transition ,any scientists believe that the time for action is over and we are facing "Apocalypse !oon>" A recent article in $cientific %merican outlines the possibility of such a scenario. "4our decades ago, a ,assachusetts Institute of %echnology computer model called Dorld; warned of such a possible course for human civiliIation in the 2/st century. In &imits to Growth,

a bitterly disputed /J:2 book that e plicated these findings, researchers argued that the global industrial system has so much inertia that it cannot readily correct course in response to signals of planetary stress. 5ut unless economic growth skidded to a halt before reaching the edge, they warned, society was headed for overshoot - and a fall that could kill billions. 7ennis ,eadows, professor emeritus of systems policy at the )niversity of 'ew @ampshire who headed the original ,.I.%. team and revisited Dorld; in /JJ= and 233=, has an even darker view. %he /J:3s program had yielded a variety of scenarios, in some of which humanity manages to control production and population to live within planetary limits (described as Hlimits to growth*. ,eadows contends that the model"s sustainable pathways are no longer within reach because humanity has failed to act accordingly." LDe"re in for a period of sustained chaos whose magnitude we are unable to foresee,L ,eadows warns. @e no longer spends time trying to persuade humanity of the limits to growth. Instead, he says, LI"m trying to understand how communities and cities can buffer themselvesL against the inevitable hard landing. H Dhen will collapse occurG 6lobal Darming theorists talk of 23=3 - <3, whereas 8eak Eil theorists talk of as early as 23/<> (=* Dhat does this imply for human societyG Dithout doubt, there will be chaos and a scramble for remaining resources - the best high density fuel remaining is charcoal. Dhole forests will be burnt to make charcoal to serve the ruling class. #vidently, the poor will resist and attempt to survive the crisis, and a period of lawlessness can occur. It will be a grim period lasting maybe several decades, but once humanity e hausts itself fighting over shrinking resources, a recovery may occur. It is difficult to say how this scenario will unfold, but it will definitely take place in some parts of the world and unfortunately it might happen in large parts of our country too. Dhat else can happen during this periodG Dith the arrival of 8eak Eil, the curtain has closed on Act / of the drama 8etroleum ,an. Dhat will happen in Act 2G $hekhov said, "If there"s a gun on the wall at the beginning of the play, by the end it must go off." In the world"s nuclear arsenal there are many guns on the wall. If life copies art, will there be an Act ; in which the players, having learned their lesson the hard way, live sustainablyG !o if we do face a nuclear holocaust then we may have a situation where the "living shall envy the dead." @owever as humans, we are optimistic, so let us look at some of the more cheerful scenarios.

Transition %he concept of transition implies that we should go through a period of transition where we bring forth changes in our community?country incrementally, so that a smooth transition occurs towards a fossil fuel free society. T"ree t"ings must "appen if anyt"ing 'ort"'"ile emerges out of all t"e !"aos and suffering t"at t"ese !rises 'ill !ause. T"e first is t"e end of !apitalist/industrial so!iety, t"e se!ond is a transition to a so!iety, based on e0uity, s!aling do'n of energy use and lo!al self suffi!ien!y and t"e t"ird is to !"ange "umanity1s attitude to'ards nature. In this, we have two paths or models before us - one is $uba, the other is that of %ransition %owns. Cuba It is possible that in some countries social revolution can occur with an e plicit aim of e.uality and of reducing energy consumption. It is not an impossible dream. %here is already a living e ample of it9 $uba. $uba is a small country in the $aribbean, with a population of about // million. In /J<J they had a revolution led by 4idel $astro and $he 6uevara. %he original revolutionary agenda, like that of most socialist revolutions - like that in !oviet )nion, $hina, Vietnam etc. was industrialisation with e.uity. $uba too took this route, but because of the )! embargo on trade, the !oviet )nion was the only source of oil for the country. 5ut in /J0J, something happened. In /J0J, the !oviet system had begun to collapse, and $uba stopped receiving petroleum from the )!!-. %hat is, H8eak Eil hit $uba in /J0J, though in an artificial manner - because in the world as a whole, there was no shortage of oil. %he year /J0J ushered in the H!pecial 8eriod in $uba, where the country had to manage with e tremely limited supplies of oil, a scenario that has begun to hit the rest of the world now. It began with a nation-wide call to increase food production by restructuring agriculture. It involved converting from conventional large - scale, high input monoculture systems to smaller scale, organic and semi - organic farming systems. %he focus was on using low cost and environmentally safe inputs and relocating production closer to consumption, in order to cut down on transportation costs. )rban agriculture played a significant part in this effort. Dhen oil supply stopped in /JJ3, transportation ground to a near halt. %here were no cars

running1 public conveyance collapsed1 and the streets were empty. 8eople walked. Around /JJ;, $uba imported 2, 33,333 bicycles from $hina. %o begin with, trucks were converted to buses by simply welding steps to the back. A skeletal frame of rods and a canopy were added. %he concept was refined into the $ubas mass transit bus the H$amellone (%he $amel*. 5uilt on a long chassis vehicle, it can accommodate 2<3 persons. 4or shorter distances there were cycle and auto rickshaws. In smaller towns, horse drawn or even mule drawn Hcabs were to be spotted. $ar-pooling and ride sharing is common in $uba. %here are designated government officials in yellow uniforms who have the right to pull over even government vehicles and seat people in need of transport. $uba provides us with a Hlive e periment where we can observe the whole cycle of 8eak Eil, economic crisis and recovery. #ven with regards to 6lobal Darming, which has become a major crisis now, $uba has achieved all the goals of reducing its carbon emissions. %hus $uba has lessons for all on how to meet the present challenge. %he !pecial 8eriod in $uba is like a real time model that has proved viable on a large scale, which other countries too could follow (<*. $uba is the only country which has consciously and successfully met this challenge of transition. Its ultimate success depends whether the rest or the world also follows this road or plunges into a world war. ,eanwhile local initiatives are also coming up in many parts of the world to meet this challenge. %he %ransition %own ,ovement represents one such initiative. Transition To'ns As we said above, t"ree t"ings must "appen if anyt"ing 'ort"'"ile emerges out of all t"e !"aos and suffering t"at t"ese !rises 'ill !ause. In $uba only two conditions were fulfilled, those of end of industrial so!iety, and transition to a so!iety based on lo'er energy. 4or fulfilling the third condition, to !"ange "umanity1s attitude to'ards nature, we have to look at the work done by the %ransition %own ,ovement. %ransition %owns is a more recent phenomenon. It is a grass roots network of communities that are working to build resilience in response to 8eak Eil, climate change, food insecurity and economic instability. %ransition %owns is a catchword for environmental and social movements founded upon the principles of permaculture. %oday 8ermaculture has come to mean a whole life system encompassing various strategies for people to ac.uire all those resources, including

access to land needed to evolve self-financing and self-managed systems to provide for all their material and non-material needs, without depleting, polluting and destroying the natural resources of the biosphere. %he %ransition %owns brand of permaculture uses 7avid @olmgrens 233; book, Permaculture' Principles and Pathways beyond $ustainability. %hese techni.ues were included in a student project overseen by permaculture teacher -ob @opkins at the Minsale 4urther #ducation $ollege in Ireland. %wo of his students, &ouise -ooney and $atherine 7unne, set about developing the transition town concept and took the far-reaching step of presenting it to Minsale %own $ouncil, resulting in the historic decision by councillors to adopt the plan and work towards energy independence. %he %ransition %owns movement is an e ample of socioeconomic localisation. %he idea was adapted and e panded through 233<, 233A and beyond in @opkins" home town of %otnes where he is now based. %he initiative spread .uickly, and as of ,ay 23/3, there are over =33 communities recognised as official %ransition %owns in the )nited Mingdom, Ireland, $anada, Australia, 'ew Nealand, the )nited !tates, Italy, and $hile. %he term Transition Towns has morphed into Transition (nitiatives to reflect the range and type of communities involved e.g. villages (Minsale*, neighbourhoods of cities (8ortobello, #dinburgh*, through council districts (8enwich* to cities and city boroughs (5ri ton*. Central to t"e transition to'n mo)ement is t"e idea t"at a life 'it"out oil !ould in fa!t be far more enjoyable and fulfilling t"an t"e present: 2by s"ifting our mindset 'e !an a!tually re!ognise t"e !oming post3!"eap oil era as an opportunity rat"er t"an a t"reat, and design t"e future lo' !arbon age to be t"ri)ing, resilient and abundant 3 some'"ere mu!" better to li)e t"an our !urrent alienated !onsumer !ulture based on greed, 'ar and t"e myt" of perpetual gro't".2 An essential aspect of transition in many places is that the outer work of transition needs to be matched by inner transition. In order to reduce our dependence on energy we need to rebuild our relations with ourselves, with each other and with the natural world. %hat re.uires focusing on the heart and soul of transition. (A*. Con!lusion De are witnessing a race between a catastrophe that is being unleashed by global warming and a social and political revolution that can end capitalism and usher in a fossil fuel free world based

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on e.uity and scaling down of use of resources. %he race is hotting up as can be seen by the latest figures of global warming. %he carbon dio ide in atmosphere reached the =33 ppm level on ,ay J, 23/; much before the estimated time of Aug 23/A. It shows that despite all the annual conferences under the )'4$$ to arrive at a solution for climate change, we have accelerated the pace of climate change through increasing carbon emissions. It is now impossible to limit increase in temperature to 2 $. It all shows that we cannot rely on governments to take care of this serious issue and the people have to take direct actions for a system change that alone can prevent climate change. De have little time left for action. Inaction means e tinction of humanity. $apitalism is not just "us" and "them". It is a relation between capital and labour and involves every one. Apart from the revolutionary alternative, there are many ways to end capitalism. De can all disengage from this relationship incrementally by refusing to be irrational consumers, working for local self sufficiency and working for the community and not for capital. %he collapse of $apitalism is given, it is already happening in parts of the world, but it will not automatically usher in a new world. It will just result in chaos. It is up to the people"s movement to bring in the alternative before the global warming becomes irreversible. eferen!es /. 6lobal Darming by 'agraj Adve, 23/2, 'ellore, +an Vignana Vedika 2. 8eak Eil 8rimer, 23/2, 'ellore, +an Vignana Vedika ;. !carcity, @umanitys 4inal $hapterG 5y $hristopher E. $lugston, =. %he $oming 4amine in India by 5inayak !en, !eptember A, 23/2, 'ew 7elhi, A. '. 7as ,emorial &ecture <. Apocalypse !oon9 @as $iviliIation 8assed the #nvironmental 8oint of 'o -eturnG by ,adhusree ,ukherjee ,ay 2;, 23/2 www.scientificamerican.com?article.cfmGidCapocalypsesoon-has-civiliIation-passed-the-environmental-point-of-no-returnOpageC2 A. $uba Dithout Isms by %. Vijayendra, 23/2, 'ellore, +an Vignana Vedika :. %ransition %owns, from Dikipedia, the free encyclopaedia

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,ay /<, 23/; #mail9 t.vijayendraPgmail.com 5log9 t-vijayendra.blogspot.com ,obile9 BJ/ J=J3: 3<A;= 8ublished in )rontier, Molkata, Autumn Issue, Ectober A K 'ovember 2, 23/; 4ppendi( Comments by 5aral 5arkar, aut"or of 1E!o 5o!ilism1 and 1T"e Crises of Capitalism1 If a political activist can be defined as a person who is not only trying to promote the interests of his own particular group or class but trying, generally speaking, to create a better world, then she must first have a good understanding of the state of the present-day world. And then Vijayendras article is a must-read for her, because it is an e cellent short introduction to the subject. I would here like to complement his article by adding two or three points. /. 6ross 7omestic product (678* is nothing more than the sum total of all production of goods and services that have been e changed for money (bought and sold at the market* K irrespective of the category they belong to. If 678 grows, that does not necessarily mean that the people at large are better off this year than they were last year. 678 does not indicate the level of prosperity. %hat means, prosperity of people at large may also fall while 678 grows. %his may happen if a large part of the total production is used for defensive purposes or for compensating damages that have already occurred. De call e penditures for such things defensive and compensatory costs. A soldier or a policeman gets his salary. %hat is income for him, but for the society, it is a cost, because the soldier or the policeman does not produce any additional wealth. !imilarly, if one hundred new houses have been built to replace /33 houses that had been destroyed by a cyclone, then we do not have any more houses than we had last year. %he newly built houses have only compensated for the destroyed houses. !uch costs, however, are shown in the 678 as production?income. De should note that damages are not only caused by natural calamities, but also by the economic process itself, e.g. environmental and health damages. %hat is why 678 is a very misleading concept. In order, then, to assess the real prosperity level of a people, all defensive and compensatory costs should be deducted from the 678 figure. 2. !ome economists K most famous among them has been M. Dilliam Mapp K have shown that such

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costs, both in absolute and relative terms (i.e. as a percentage of 678*, have been rising everywhere in the world. And, with growing environmental damages, with growing costs of wars, civil wars and sundry insurgencies, with growing costs of military preparedness and civil defence (police etc.*, it can easily be predicted that such costs will continue to rise in future. (4or a detailed discussion of these points see my book The *rises of *apitalism*. ;. According to estimates of the $hinese 'ational 5ureau of !tatistics, in 233=, environmental damages amounted to ;F of the 678 of that country. In present-day #gypt, according to the Dorld 5ank, environmental degradation costs the country <F of its 678.

!aral !arkar $ologne, 0.//.23/;

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