Artificial Neural Network based short term load forecasting technique for Indian power stem nergy nagement

Rajesh Holmukhe Asst. prof.in Eledrical Engineeering College of Engineering Bhanti dyapeetb Diversity Pune43

Load Forecasting: Commonly and popular problem that has an important role in economic, financial, de elopment, expansion and planning is load forecasting of power systems. During last fi e ears different load forecasting types are used worldwide. Following figure shows importance of short term load forecasting methocl

Abstract:-The electric Power industry is currently undergoing an unprecedented reform. One of the most exciting and potentially profitable recent developments is increasing usage of artificial intelligence techniques. The intention of this paper B to give an 0 erview of Short term 'load forecasting(STLF) using neural ne om techniques in po er systems. Introduction: eural networks have been used in a broad range of Electrical applications. This is an application of s in po er system operation and controL This figure 1 shows that some application fields such as load forecasting, fault diagnosis! fault location, economic dispatch, security assessment and transient stability

Fig. 2 sho s the percentage of different forecasting types used in po er system. The s can be used to sol e the problems of load forecasting. ost of the projects using s consider man factors such as eather condition, holidays, eekends and special sport matches days in forecasting model, successfull . This is because of learning ability of s with many input factors. For example: 1) Being conducted off-line without time constraints and direct coupling to po er system. 2) Abili to adjust the parameters for inputs that hasn't functional relationship between them such as weather conditions and load profile. Advantages of using s are: Its capability of dealing ith stochastic ariations of the secheduled operating point with increasing data Very fast and on-line processing and classification

Fig. 1. Neural system.

applications

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power

Implicit nonlinear modeling filtering of system data components

and

Short term load forecasting(STLF) modeling and procedure: ANN-based methods are a good choice to study the STLF problem, as these techniques are characterized by not requiring explicit models to represents the complex relationship between the factor that determine it. Modeling: Neurons model :Artificial neural Networks (ANNs) are made up of a number of simple and highly interconnected Processing Elemenrs (PE)., called neurons , as depicted in FigA
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Electrical Load Characteristics

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The prediction of the electric load at a future time is a challenging problem because of the diverse characteristics of the electrical load and the uncertainly associated with them. A typical daily variation of electric loads is shown in Fig. 3. The characteristics of the electric load depend on the nature of the users and the end use devices utilized such as motors, air conditioners, lighting. etc. From this point of view. the electric load can be separated into four major categories. Residential Commercial Agricultural and Industrial

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Figue 4. Mathematical model of an ANN neuron. Its mathematical model is expressed as OJ =fj ~ (Wjk-Xk) k Where OJ is the output of a neuron; fj is a transfer function, which is differentiable and non-decreasing, usually represented using a sigmoid function, such as a logistic sigmoid, a tangent sigmoid, etc; Wjk is an adjustable weight that represents the connection strength; Xk is the input of a neuron.

Fig. 3 Typical electric loads.

daily variation

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Network Architecture: Neural network has many applications because of its capability to learn. The structure of a typical is shown in Figure 4.

There are many types of neural networks (NN). For example, multilayer perceptron network, self organizing network, Hopfields recurrent network, and so on . has been applied to timeseries prediction and load forecasting for power systems. The previous work in this field used to predict the peak load of a da or the hourly load of a day. The performance of such applications is generally acceptable in terms of accuracy, Training: ANN training basically consist on determining the network parameters such as weights and others, that allow achieving the desired objective based on the available training sets. Usually, a multi-layer feed forward neural networks are trained in a supervised manner. Back-propagation is used as the training method here. Which is an iterative procedure that has three steps during each iteration: I. Forward: The outputs are calculated for given inputs 2.Backward: The errors at the output layer are propagated backwards towards towar the inputs layers, with the partial derivatives of the performance with respect to the weights and biases calculated in each layer. 3.Weight adjustment: A multivariate nonlinear numeric optimization algorithm finds the weights that minimize the error based on the gradient. Training stops when the performance has been minimized to the goal, the performance gradient falls below a minimum gradient, the maximum number of epochs is

The three-layer fully connected feed~orward neural network depicted in Fig.S IS used here; it includes an input layer, one hidden layer and an output layer.

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Fig.5 Schematic of the three layer feed forward ANN for STLF. Signal propagation is allowed only fonn the input layers to the output layer. Input variables come from historical data corresponding to the factors that affect the load. The outputs are the desired forecasting results, which in this case are in =24, i.e., one for each hour of the day. The number of inputs, the number of hidden nodes" transfer functions, scaling schemes, and training methods affect the forecasting performance and hence need to be chosen carefully.

reached, or the maximum amount of time has been exceeded. The error function used in the back-propagation training process is the sum-squared error. ANN-based demand forecasting procedure: The STLF procedure for the chosen ANN model is shown in Fig.6

choosing a suitable algorithm; and fmally implementation.

learning

Neural network input variables: The most important work in building an ANN load forecasting model is the selection of inputs variables. There is no general rule that can be followed in this process. It depends on engineering judgments and experience and is carried out almost entirely by trial and error. However, some statistical analysis can be very helpful in determining which variables have significant influence on the system load. In general, three types of variable are used as inputs to the neural network: (a) hour and da indicators, (b) weather related inputs and (c) historical loads, (d) market pricing signal. Cross Validation, Testing: Training and

Fig.6. ANN-based forecasting procedure.

demand

Forecasting sysfelll: The load forecasting task depends on past and current infonnation about variables that affect the load for a period of time. A forecasting system can be carried out as follows: obtain and analyze the historical data; pre-processing and normalizing of the information; choosing the training and testing set; choosing the type of network and its parameters;

A simple algorithm is used to select the optimized parameters such as learning rate, momentum, hidden neurons and the thresold value to stop training. A trained ANN can produce the expected output if the input is not exactly the same as any of those in the training set. This property is ideal for forecasting applications where some historical data exist but the forecast indicators (input) may not match up exactly with those in the history. In a forecasting application, the number of input and and output nodes is equal to the number of utilized forecast indicators and the number of desired outputs, respectively . Howe er there is no theoretical approach to calculate the appropriate number of hidden layers nodes.

Short-Term Load Forecasting The daily operation and planning activities of an electric utility requires the prediction of the electrical demand of its customers. In general, the required load forecasts can be categorized into short-term, mid-term, and long-term forecasts. The short-term forecasts refer to hourly prediction of the load for a lead time ranging from one hour to several days out. The mid- term forecast can either be hourly or peak load forecasts for a forecast horizon of one to several months ahead. Finally, the long term forecasts refer to forecasts made for one to several years in the future. The quality of short- term hourly load forecasts has a significant impact on the economic operation of the electric utility since many _decisions based on these forecasts have significant impact economic consequences. These decisions include economic scheduling of generating capacity, scheduling of generating capacity, scheduling of fuel purchases, system security assessment, and planning for energy transactions. The importances of accurate load forecasts will increase in the future because of the dramatic changes occurring in the structure of the utility industry due to deregulation and competition. This environment compels the utilities to operate at the highest possible efficiency , which, as inducated above, requires accurate load forecasts. Moreover, the advent of open access to transmission and distribution systems calls for new actions such as posting the available transmission capacity (A TC), which will depend on the load forecasts. In the deregulated enviorment, utilizes are not the only entities that need load forecasts. Power marketers, load

aggregators, and indenpent system operators (ISO) will all need to generate load forecasts as an integral part of their operciation. The function learing proerty of ANNs enable them to model the corrlelations between the load and such factors as climatic conditions, past usage pattern, the day of the week, and the time of the day, from historical load and weather data. A note worthy aspect of ANN based STLF is that a single architecture with the same input-output structure is used for modeling hourly loads of various size utilities in different regions of the country. The only customization required is the determination of some parameters of the ANN models. No other aspects of the models need to be altered. ANNSTLF Architecture: ANNSTLF consist of three modules : two ANN load forecasters and an adaptive combiner .Both load forecasters receive the same set of inputs and produce a load forecast for the same day, but they utilize different strategies to do so. The function of the combiner module is to mix the two forecasts to generate the fmal forecast. Both of the ANN load forecasters have the same topology with the following inputs: 0 24 hours loads of the previous day. 24 hourly weather parameters of the previous day (effective temperatures) 24 hourly weather parameters forecasts for the coming day. Day type indices

Limitations/Assumptions Humidity and Wind Speed: Although temperature (I) is the primary weather variable affecting the load, other weather parameters, such as relative humidity (II) and wind speed (W) also ha e a noticeable impact on the load. The effects of these variables are taken into account through transforming the temperature value into an effective tempertnre, T_eff, using the following trnnsfonnation:

Performance The performance of ANNSTLE is tested on real data from one utilily in Maharashtra geographical region. Infonnation about the general location of these utilies and the length of the testing period are provided in Table 1 In this case, one year of historical data is used to train ANNSTLF. Actual weather data is used so that the effect of weather forecast errors do not alter the modeling error, The testing is performed in a blind fashion meaning that the test data is conpletely independent from the training set and is not shown to the model during its training. One to se en da ahead forecasts are generated for each test set. To extend the forecast horizon beyond one day ahead, the forecast load of the previous day is used in place of the actual load to obtain the next day's load forecast. The forecasting results are presented in Table 13.2 in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) defined as

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Hoildays and Special Days: Holidays and special day's pose a challange to any load forcasting program since the load of these days can be quite different from a regular workday. The difficulty is the small number of holidays in the historical data compared to the typical days.. The unusual beha: .or of the load for these days cannot be learned adequately by the ANNs since they are not shown many instances of these days. TABLE 1 Performance Utility information for Study

with

being number of observations

Utility No. Days in Testing Period 7

Weather Variable Temperature

Location Maharashtra (India)

In the case of hourly load, this average remains below 3% for the entire forecast horizon of seven days ahead, and for the peak load it reaches 3% on the seventh day. A pictorial example of one to seven day ahead load forcecasts for utility 1 is shown in Fig. below. As pointed out earlier, all the weather variable (Temperature or T_eff) used in these studies are the actual data. In online usage of the model, weather forecasts are used. The quality of these weather forecast errors introduce approximately 1% of additional error for

TABLE 2 Summary of Performance Results in Terms of Mape

Utility
I

MAPE OF All Hours Peak

Days Ahead I 2 3 4 5 6 7 1.91 2.29 2.53 2.71 2.87 3.03 3.15 1.70 2.11 2.39 2.62 2.73 2.94 3.10

one - to - two days out load forecasts. The increase in the error for longer range forecasts is more due to less accurate weather forecast for three or more days out.

References: Bakirtzis, A.G., et. al, A neural network short term load forecasting model for the Greek power system, IEEE Trans, PWRS, 11,2,858-863, May, 1996 Khotanzad, A., Atkbami-Rohanl , R, and Maratokulam, D., ANNSTLFArtificial neural network: short term load forecaster- generation three, lEEE Trans. On power System., 13 4,1413-1422 ovember, 1998.

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eumpIe of one to sarm day ahead load fiIn:cast

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Conclusion: In this paper the application of NNs in STLF power system subjects and advantages and drawbacks of using NN s and other conventional methods have been reviewed. the methods for forecasting electric loads on a power system were discussed. Emphasis was placed on short term load forecasting which is important for real time operation and control of power system. The load forecasting methodology adopted in this study has proved accuracy the progress in load forecasting will be achieved in two direction: (i) basic research in statistics and artificial intelligence and (ii) better understanding of the load dynamics and its statistical properties to implement appropriate models. Acknowledgement: This work is supported by Bharati Vidyapeeth University college of Engineering,pune-43.

ANNSTLE- A neural network- based electric load forecasting system, IEEE Trans., on Neural Networks, 8,4,835846,July,97. Khotanzed , A., Davis, M.H., Abaye , A., and Martukulam, D.J., An artificial neural network hourly temperature forecaster with applications in load forecasting, IEEE Trans, PWRS,11,2,870-876, May 1996.

Lee ,K.Y., Cha, Y.T., and Park, J.H., Short term load forecasting using an artificial neural network, IEEE Trans.PWRS,7,1,124-132, Feb.1992. LU,C.N.,Wu,N.T., and Vemuri, S ., Neural network based short -term load forecasting, IEEE Trans. PWRS, 8,1, 336-342, Feb.1993. Mohammed, 0., Park, D., Merchant, R., et. AI, Practical experiences with an adaptive neural network short-term load forecasting system, IEEE Trans. PWRS, 10,1,254-265, Feb1995. Park,D.C., EI-Sharkwai, M.A., Marks, R.J., Atlas, L.E., and Damborg, M.J., Electric load forecasting using an artificial neural network, IEER Trans.PWRS, 442-449, May 1991.

Peng, T.M., Hubele, N.F., and Karady, G.G., Advancement in the application of neutral networks for short term load forecasting, IEEE Trans. PWRS,8,3,1195-1202, Feb.1993. H. S. Hippert, C.E. Pedreira, R. C. Souza, Neural Netwrods for short term Load Forecasting : A Review and Evaluation, IEEE Trans. on Power System, Vo1.16, No.1, pp. 4453, February 2001. Field visits to kalwa load dispatch center-mumbai, metrological offices -pune. Interaction and discussion with various engineers from MSEB,PWD,Software industries