Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Modelo de Colas
del Registro Civil
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL
SAN LUIS GONZAGA DE ICA
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS DISCRETOS
Tema:
REGISTRO CIVIL
Facultad:
Ingeniera de Sistemas
Catedrtico:
Ciclo Acadmico:
VIII - S2
Integrantes:
GRUPO 06
Condea Flores, Moiss
Gutirrez Franco, Alex
Muante Velzquez Mercedes
Yancce Buleje Jean Carlos
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
de
investigacin
est
dedicado a mis compaeros
de clase, para que a travs
de l se puedan informar y
conocer ms del modelo de
colas
que
me
hemos
analizado REGISTRO CIVIL.
3
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
Modelos y Simulacin
Modelo de Colas en Registro Civil de la Ciudad de Ica
Simulacin de Sistemas Discretos
Nombre
Condea Flores, Moiss Miguel
ngel
Gutirrez Franco, Alex
Muante Velzquez, Mara
Mercedes
Yancce Buleje, Jean Carlos
Cdigo
200844
39
200645
64
200941
98
200912
06
Correo Corporativo
20084439@sistemasunica.ed
u.pe
20064564@sistemasunica.ed
u.pe
20094198@sistemasunica.ed
u.pe
20091206@sistemasunica.ed
u.pe
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
Tabla de contenido
Tabla de contenido......................................................................................... 6
1.INTRODUCCIN........................................................................................... 7
2.DESCRIPCIN DEL SISTEMA.........................................................................8
3.ANALISIS DE LOS DATOS DE ENTRADA......................................................20
4.MODELO DE SIMULACION EN ARENA.........................................................42
5.VERIFICACION Y VALIDACION DEL MODELO..............................................45
6.ANALISIS DE RESULTADOS........................................................................46
7.RESULTADOS DE LA SIMULACION..............................................................47
8.SUGERENCIAS DE MODIFICACION AL SISTEMA..........................................47
9.CONCLUSIONES......................................................................................... 48
10.RECOMENDACIONES................................................................................ 49
11.AGRADECIMIENTOS................................................................................. 49
12.BIBLIOGRAFIA.......................................................................................... 49
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
1.
INTRODUCCIN
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
2.
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
10
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
11
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
Grfico de Sistema
V1
Ciudadanos
Salida
V2
Abandono
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
Ciudadano
Acude al Registro Civil para solicitar la copia legalizada
de matrimonio, defuncin o nacimiento de mismo o de
algn familiar dentro del horario de oficina vigente.
Entidade Atributos
s
Ciudadan
Tiempo de llegada
o
Tiempo en Cola
14
Actividades
Llegada al Servicio
Traslado a la Cola de
Ventanilla N 03
Traslado a cola de espera de
la Ventanilla N 01
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
Ventanill
as
[i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10]
EVENTOS PRINCIPALES
1. Arribo de un Ciudadano al Registro Civil (sistema)
2. Fin de Servicio de Ventanilla i
DIAGRAMA DE RELACIN DE EVENTOS
15
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
Ocupad
o
Ingreso a Cola
1
6.i
Desocupado
8.i
7.i
Fin de Servicio
Fin de
Espera
Iniciar Servicio
5.i
8.i
7.i
4.i
3.i
Salir de Cola
Iniciar Cola
6.i
7.i
Iniciar Servicio
8.i
8.i
Fin de Servicio
Fin de Espera
Iniciar Servicio
Fin de Servicio
5.i
Iniciar Espera
16
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
10
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
Variables Endgenas
Horario de atencin
Tiempos entre llegadas
Variables Endgenas de Salida
Tiempo total del servicio
Tiempos de desocupacin
Porcentajes de ocupacin/desocupacin
Variables Exgenas Controlables
Numero de servidores (completamente controlable)
Distribucin de probabilidad de tiempo de atencin
Variables Exgenas no Controlables
Distribucion de probabilidad de tiempos de llegada
Tipo de distribucin de probabilidad
Distribucin de probabilidad de tiempo de espera mxima
Tamao de la cola mximo
18
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
DIAGRAMA EN BIZAGI
19
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
3.
ANALISIS DE LOS DATOS DE
ENTRADA
3.1 Anlisis de Variables Aleatorias
Arribo de Ciudadanos al Registro Civil
De la tabla de datos proporcionada se ha transformado las
horas de llegada a segundos, se ha tomado la muestra de
2hrs. 45min por da, se ha encontrado el tiempo entre
llegadas se ha obtenido los siguientes resultados.
Al trasladar la serie de nmeros al Input Analizar, se obtuvo
la siguiente grafica de distribucin de frecuencias:
Datos:
55.6
118.79
20.09
67.83
68.54
173.37
37.39
33.98
55.62
5.78
4.89
5.09
28.42
65.09
81.33
72.51
83.07
39.97
11.13
83.39
30.78
60.59
65.98
23.25
23.69
53.48
45.56
15.59
84.51
56.23
54.52
51.58
74
58
45.69
53.26
21.23
24.36
28.29
28.65
56.59
59.65
12.45
26.59
48.59
59.61
105.56
63.56
12.59
33.56
49.78
54.89
19.59
46.59
105.52
56.95
18.89
36.65
78.59
98.94
18.43
36.95
48.95
65.18
11.45
33.6
10.09
12.42
27.31
10.28
10.07
11.59
92.62
12.65
13.71
63.5
105.18
106
108.95
128.66
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
22.93
21.49
158.07
158.07
26.47
26.49
131.18
6.03
131.18
131.2
19.08
12.37
37.12
56.71
134
30.55
29.25
61.25
61.24
46.48
66.56
5.17
64.93
6.73
8.05
5.67
39.49
20.52
7.36
7.3
18.95
19
10.77
5.17
24.15
45.68
18.24
27
27.5
5.05
58.65
59
21
47.71
11.7
56.13
21.53
1.19
121.19
51.72
29.87
22.79
32.33
4.2
7.49
130.25
133.13
9.78
21.9
10.65
11.73
73.47
79.7
23.53
106.66
57.23
10.09
75.18
75.33
40.79
49.5
58.01
58.11
23.73
166.89
170.23
123.34
42.35
55.11
21.3
35.39
43.5
50.58
58.74
11.58
68.9
102.5
178.64
120.56
107.85
48.59
21.23
12.2
10.63
14.23
17.85
24.68
56.89
47.65
38.95
29.73
11.86
16.73
68.95
89.69
13.59
99.67
59.89
19.65
76.19
66.33
40.79
49.56
60.19
60.11
23.73
105.52
106.56
23.89
45.35
25.56
21.63
75.89
60.59
4.09
66.89
46.98
94.65
62.54
45.61
65.61
63.61
18.64
22.89
48.79
69.64
17.89
29.64
46.89
67.95
53.95
78.61
22.39
98.65
89.95
105.65
146.61
148.95
26.65
37.12
38.09
48.59
85.96
74.85
96.52
41.52
52.82
61.94
63.95
84.75
86.95
75.84
42.51
53.62
7391
19.73
37.19
19.37
4.59
38.07
45.47
50.71
56.75
85.62
23.65
10.52
20.31
34.51
20.89
100.68
51.84
80.5
90.8
49.08
98.49
13.2
20.11
12.61
54.55
12.32
163.47
26.09
48.03
74.15
62.09
79.4
91.2
67.94
50.21
55.61
59.96
106.64
105.96
11.65
108.95
103.26
27.59
20.11
13.1
67
48.79
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
59
83.72
60.74
4.5
9.16
42.85
179.4
2
5.07
64.57
129.12
53.58
53.6
53.8
50
48.99
10.42
55.09
2.42
13
2
5.08
32.7
82.66
4.12
81.01
120.21
38.58
88.56
52.12
60.86
88.78
67.86
123.89
7.65
117.5
59.85
61.54
105.65
10.6
3
62.49
22
54.69
13.01
82
53.63
17.69
15
67.65
95.81
28.51
136.3
27.24
42.32
55.43
26.05
13.23
27.45
44.47
54.21
4.89
14.99
23.65
33.99
108.41
109.59
23.59
34.79
50.13
59.92
13.13
23.91
32.99
42.44
41.9
49.63
22.98
28.4
41.44
56.4
35.82
13.75
21.6
30.76
33.69
36.89
41.49
12.48
20.92
31.65
175.11
11.12
10.15
56.89
15.46
42.12
102.6
102.8
102.96
18.97
106.89
56.84
12.93
179.64
56.48
44.99
59.84
64.49
65.78
58.49
1.56
17.48
66
78.99
65.48
37.89
23.56
100.15
47.36
55.56
50.56
52.58
55.78
102.56
15.89
26.81
43.61
76.94
83.92
18.27
12.58
98.52
12.36
56.41
14.78
74.12
45.63
15.94
75.38
85.21
74.18
96.35
95.92
84.51
84.95
51.6
62.3
84.6
10.2
10.01
23.09
59.4
48.51
56.29
12.13
15.19
19.98
25.59
48.59
26.93
108.56
108.94
110.65
56.28
175.95
179.95
12.59
29.59
53
47
39
23.22
18.2
90.99
10.2
78.56
20.01
201.49
37.41
27.31
19.34
11.33
32.31
44.21
39.43
30.23
53.5
11.06
99.63
89.62
56.77
48.91
34.12
53.31
14.83
41.41
27.34
19.3
14.41
106.95
101.6
23.5
100.6
89.91
78.91
48.61
75.61
56.91
23.59
15.56
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
9.14
102.07
107.76
3.69
2.81
29.92
28.72
48.62
78.14
124
109.17
66.95
141.4
145.49
149.9
52.79
2.39
12.68
20.35
29.1
39.79
106.59
104.89
108.62
12.36
79.65
45.65
23.33
40.59
175.84
48.59
56.95
14.54
11.12
19.17
11.05
50.56
55.54
22.51
109.91
108.9
103.52
79.86
14.63
59.62
19.95
18.56
48.78
98.95
59.48
Grafica
Data Summary
Number of Data Point = 570
Min Data Value
= 1.19
Max Data Value
= 7.39e+003
Sample Mean
= 66
Sample Std Dev
= 310
Histogram Summay
Histogram Range
= 1 to 7.39e+003
Number of Intervals
= 23
Al momento de aplicar Fit All el resultado es:
Function
Exponential
Erlang
Gamma
Weibull
Beta
Lognormal
Normal
Triangular
23
Square Error
0.000082
0.000082
0.009696
0.000268
0.053606
0.000401
0.412713
0.924426
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
Uniform
0.953019
Distribution Summary
Distribution : Exponential
Expression : 1 + EXPO(65)
Square Error: 0.000082
Chi Square Test
Number of intervals
=1
Degrees of freedom
= -1
Test Statistic
= 0.0166
Corresponding p-value < 0.005
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
Test Statistic
= 0.115
Corresponding p-value > 0.01
Data Summary
Number of Data points = 570
Min Data Value
= 1.19
Max Data Value
= 7.39e+003
Sample Mean
= 66
Histogram Summary
Histogram Range
= 1 to 7.39e+003
Number of Intervals
= 23
24
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
Anlisis
El resultado muestra la distribucin Exponencial con error
cuadrtico menor, por este motivo se selecciona para el
simulador.
Datos:
57.5
59.85
11.54
15.65
10.6
13
12.49
14.09
42.07
14.27
14.47
69.03
82.01
29.92
62.48
59.17
95.06
21.4
22.21
22.25
25.59
21.19
19.9
52.79
52.74
23.93
12.68
20.35
29.1
65.95
24.2
26.22
25.23
25.06
25.11
58.81
34.42
62.24
11.28
30.89
47.89
69.09
24.62
55.65
59.3
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
16.07
32.31
12.5
16.17
65.95
15.62
33.65
48.92
78.61
55.61
29.64
232.4
39.8
21.99
30.05
19.59
21.1
27.95
36.61
18.19
16.19
17.94
18.92
11.17
16.06
13.03
26.7
36.5
59.78
37.22
29.97
46.9
17.87
22.49
38.07
26.47
26.49
6.3
11.18
11.2
55.37
38.02
27.18
293.11
42.3
39.45
10.83
20.18
19.08
12.37
37.12
52.71
20.14
30.55
29.25
61.25
61.24
26
18.14
24.25
60.55
20.09
17.83
18.54
15.78
13.37
27.39
13.98
23.65
28.42
21.33
12.51
23.07
11.13
39.97
47.71
11.7
13.56
19.01
51.72
29.87
22.79
32.33
34.03
23.34
42.35
11.55
15.11
21.3
35.39
43.5
50.58
58.58
11.58
54.69
79.89
22.01
17.69
15.94
81.35
37.27
7.48
15.18
42.39
13.6
28.7
36.71
45.29
15.9
55.49
10.53
11.59
58.11
23.13
45.62
77.8
21.78
49.77
48.46
50.48
55.78
80.46
55.05
50.1
45.15
40.02
35.25
30.15
20.15
15.1
15.05
55.5
12.6
19.3
39.12
36.89
10.56
77.5
50.21
21.5
19.99
97.7
29.66
16.65
27.17
42.71
43.37
18.85
41.03
43.37
51.5
16.95
49.62
26.65
23.12
44.95
20.09
17.88
13.97
49.08
40.23
29.46
33.36
28.36
11.3
22.21
19.67
18.37
29.21
19.53
35.07
15.86
40.28
15.2
49.34
123.94
12.76
13.41
12.38
19.62
21.01
22.1
25.69
33.86
53.25
14.85
69.03
123.65
13.62
19.75
93.89
31.44
35.98
40.72
45.1
50.46
55.23
77.4
44.5
97.08
13.74
21.73
12.76
29.6
199.16
45.75
24.01
54.6
59.03
19.03
11.08
13.02
83.4
24.63
11.66
63.84
40
15.37
50.67
59.33
65.08
20.08
73.56
57.04
147.65
32.59
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
16.56
39.49
19
18.95
10.77
15.17
24.15
18.24
27
15.05
58.65
59
23.72
10.74
14.5
19.16
42.84
12.42
59.49
12.56
14.57
26.51
19
18.95
15.17
45.68
18.24
27
15.05
58.65
23.72
16.09
50.04
42.85
59.4
28.08
57.04
12.09
53.58
53.6
53.8
15.01
27
26.51
16.3
27.84
42.32
55.43
26.05
13.23
27.45
20.04
79.07
10.25
13.13
19.79
21.9
10.65
11.73
13.74
19.7
23.53
46.66
57.23
15.18
25.33
40.79
49.5
58.01
58.11
23.73
46.89
50.23
47.44
21.54
98.04
14.99
23.65
33.65
33.99
48.41
30.09
23.59
34.79
50.13
12.29
11.14
20.99
20.96
36.95
15.56
48.91
62.61
63.18
20.61
22.79
48.92
13.62
33.91
17.02
15.9
13.07
18.51
23.91
28.76
36.74
41.25
46.21
11.56
16.39
21.33
23.33
18.07
44.22
20.01
24.79
11.68
19.11
38.02
22.01
47.17
14.38
57.38
69.62
22.08
17.94
22.3
11.85
42.54
67.08
53.69
11.15
11.03
19.62
62.05
15.06
11.74
24.05
98.5
38.11
14.06
48.19
53.63
58.28
12.03
44.05
64.04
89.04
10.07
11.08
37.85
43.06
48.49
56.06
56.07
12.6
148.79
41.07
11.35
26.36
31.2
35.97
77.04
46.88
52.09
21.5
90.01
83.4
11.02
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
36.58
21.26
45.71
20.5
54.69
59.17
21.04
95.8
78.04
99.04
24.99
29.97
35.05
42.4
47.36
51.87
50.04
23.49
55.48
49.01
15.1
19.94
24.2
31.29
35.61
32.04
45.16
49.87
54.61
59.09
47
23.07
27.74
33.24
39.37
45.41
50.81
77.5
24.05
82.14
22.33
28.91
10.42
13.09
20.62
32.7
22.6
38.28
17.86
13.89
17.65
24.01
25.01
25.19
55.3
71.52
37.12
59.45
50.13
23.91
32.99
42.44
41.9
22.98
29.56
105.95
69.48
28.4
41.44
35.82
13.75
30.76
156.63
10.71
14.35
33.22
28.14
46.33
93.4
56.75
18.84
22.62
28.73
14.61
19.9
24.98
31.4
21.78
29.69
30.82
32.09
43.09
56.2
112.65
30.01
18.28
10.55
29.9
20.64
25.3
66.4
35.04
Grafica
Data Summary
Number of Data Points = 570
Min Data Value
= 6.3
Max Data Value
= 293
Sample Mean
= 36.2
Sample Std Dev
= 27.2
Histogram Summary
Histogram Range
= 6 to 294
Number of Intervals
= 23
28
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
36.54
41.3
46.76
46.52
59.96
13.2
11.32
17.06
21.72
26.18
30.66
35.18
40.35
25.45
50.5
Function
Weibbull
Erlang
Beta
Gamma
Lognormal
Exponential
Normal
Triangular
Uniform
Square Error
0.00446
0.00744
0.0118
0.0039
0.0044
0.0162
0.0367
0.129
0.159
Distribution Summary
Distribution : Gamma
Expression : 6 + GAMM(17.9, 1.69)
Square Error : 0.003897
Chi Square Test
Number of intervals = 8
Degrees of freedom = 5
Test Stastic
= 14.8
Corresponding p-value = 0.0121
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
Test Statistic
= 0.0594
29
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
Datos:
10.6
11.3
12.5
13.2
20.3
21.1
23.4
13.4
11.2
12.4
14.2
15.3
18.4
19.2
20.1
22.3
13
14.1
15.5
16.2
10.1
13.5
14.3
15.4
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
15.4
16.1
17.2
10.5
12.3
14.1
12
11
36.5
11.4
15.2
16.5
17.2
16.5
17.4
17
17.2
15.5
16
18.3
13.4
13.5
14.1
13
14.1
14.5
16
18.5
20
20.5
21
21.1
21.5
14.1
13.2
10.1
11.4
16.2
18.2
18.3
19
19.5
14.1
14.2
14.3
14.5
16.1
16.4
16.5
18.2
31
14.5
15.3
18.4
19.4
17.3
12.1
13.4
15.4
20.1
23.5
24
14.3
15.5
16.4
17.2
20.1
22.4
24.5
25.4
21.3
22.4
14.3
15.5
18.1
19.5
21.4
15.4
16.3
18
21.4
11.2
15.3
16.4
10.5
12.4
15.3
19.4
17.7
18.5
16
19.4
22.3
24.1
10.3
12.5
14
16.2
20.1
22.3
24
19.3
20.5
14.3
16.5
17.3
19.1
12.3
14.5
15.2
17
19.3
22.3
24.1
25.3
13.4
15.1
17.3
19.2
18
22
24.1
10.1
12
14.5
17.3
18.5
15.4
17.4
18.3
19.1
22
11.4
13.1
16.5
18
19.1
20.2
13.2
14.5
16.1
10
13.2
11.3
12.3
13.4
15
20.1
22.2
23.5
25.1
12.3
13.5
14.4
16
11.3
12.4
14.5
18.4
19.3
20.4
21.5
17.4
18.5
15.4
20.1
16.4
18.1
19.3
22.1
12.3
14.4
16.1
10.3
11.4
12.4
13.5
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
13.2
14.3
15.5
16.2
17.3
18.3
19
11.1
12.4
13.5
19.2
20
20.5
21.3
22.4
25.3
10.5
11.3
12.5
13.4
15
18.1
19.3
20.4
22.3
24.5
11.2
12.2
13.1
14.1
16
17.1
18.2
10.5
12.3
14.1
15.3
13.2
14.2
16.4
20.1
22.3
19.4
19.5
19.5
14.1
12
13.3
21.1
13.3
15.5
16
11.1
16
16.2
16.4
15.5
17.2
17.3
17.5
17.5
11.2
19
22.2
24.2
10
10.1
10.3
10.5
11
11.4
11.5
22.4
26.3
27.2
27.5
28.1
22.3
22.5
23.1
23.5
12.2
12.5
13.3
32
24.1
25
12.3
13.5
18.3
17.4
12.5
19.1
21.4
15.3
19.2
12.5
14.2
10.3
12.2
13.4
18.2
19.4
21.6
12
15
18.1
20.4
14.3
16.2
18.1
20
11.4
15.2
16.3
17.4
20.4
21.5
14.5
16.1
17
18.2
10.4
11.3
13.5
17.2
18.3
11.3
17.3
16
17.5
16
18.1
20.3
14.2
24.5
10.3
12.4
14.1
16
11.3
14.4
18.1
19.3
20.1
23.1
10.4
12.3
15.1
17
13.1
15.2
19
16.4
19.1
14.5
16.1
11.4
14.1
22.5
23.3
17.4
18.5
20
13.4
15.1
16.5
17.1
19.3
16.1
17.2
22.1
23.4
17.4
18.3
19
15.2
16.3
17.1
18.3
10.2
13.4
15
16.4
17.2
12.5
14.1
15.4
16.3
17.1
12.3
14.1
16.3
10.1
17
18.1
19.3
20.1
22.4
23.1
13.1
14.3
16.2
18
19.3
21.4
23.1
24
14.3
15.1
16.3
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
24.1
16.2
13.2
11.1
10.3
15.1
18
14.1
16.2
17.3
18.5
19.4
12.4
15.3
12.1
21
22.3
24.1
12.1
13.1
10.3
12.5
11.4
12.5
12.4
11.5
13.2
14.1
13.2
13.4
15.1
16.3
17.5
18.4
19.1
22.3
24
21.4
20.3
14.5
18.1
17.3
13.5
14.1
14.5
15.2
16.3
20.2
20.5
21.4
22.3
23.4
25.3
16.5
17.3
18.1
19.4
20.5
22.3
16.5
17.4
19.3
11.3
14.5
19.5
20.1
14.5
15.1
16.3
19.4
22.2
24.1
15
18.3
20.4
13.3
14.1
10.2
14
16.1
11.1
13.4
21.3
24.2
19.1
25.4
14.5
12.1
13.2
17.4
19.4
20.2
24
17.3
19.1
11.4
13.2
16.4
17.5
13
14.5
16.2
18.1
19.5
20.1
22.3
15.4
16.5
17.4
19
12.3
14.2
16.4
18.2
10.1
12.3
13.5
15
16.4
17.5
19.1
20.1
23.1
16.4
17.5
18.3
19.4
20.2
17.2
18.1
Grafica
Data Summary
Number of Data Points = 570
33
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
16.4
13.2
15.4
16.4
17.3
18.5
19.4
11
11.5
10.5
10.1
10
13.5
15.4
16.1
17.1
18
17.4
16
18.1
22.4
24.5
Function
Beta
Normal
Weibull
Erlang
Gamma
Lognormal
Exponential
Triangular
Uniform
Square Error
0.00547
0.00571
0.00589
0.00821
0.00886
0.0211
0.0247
0.0266
0.0447
Distribution Summary
Distribution : Beta
34
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
Expression
: 10 + 27 * BETA(1.92, 5.84)
Square Error : 0.005471
Chi Square Test
Number of Intervals
= 14
Degrees of freedom
= 11
Test Statistic
= 42.9
Corresponding p-value < 0.005
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
Test Statistic
= 0.0725
Corresponding p-value < 0.01
Data Summary
Number of Data Points = 570
Min Data Value
= 10
Max Data Value
= 36.5
Sample Mean
= 16.7
Sample Std Dev
= 3.94
Histogram Summary
Histogram Range
= 10 to 37
Number of Intervals = 23
Anlisis
Se tomara la distribucin Beta por ser la que tiene menor
error cuadrtico.
Datos:
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
Mircoles
13.2
10.3
18.5
16.4
16.5
17.5
14.3
17.3
16.4
15.3
12.2
17.3
13.4
19
10.5
17.5
24.1
16.3
16.4
15.4
18.2
27
27.5
15.5
18.5
16.4
15.4
16.2
17.4
18.2
19.5
20.1
22.4
23.5
24.1
23
21.1
24.3
25.3
26.4
27.4
36
Jueves
11.2
13.4
15.2
16.3
14.1
12.3
16.4
19.5
21.4
22.3
26.4
15.4
17.6
19.4
26.4
29.1
30
22.1
14.5
16.4
13.2
10.4
13.4
12.5
16.5
12.3
11.3
12.4
16.4
16.5
12.4
17.3
19.4
12.4
13.5
15.3
17.4
15.1
12.1
13.2
17.1
Viernes
Lunes
16.4
10.1
12.4
16.2
12.1
10.4
16.2
18.5
19.5
12.4
13.2
17.1
16.5
14.2
13.2
10.2
21.2
22.1
20.1
23.1
26.4
27.5
19.1
20
21.4
26.1
28.4
27.2
21.2
23.1
20.5
10.5
18.3
16.5
12.4
13.5
17.5
19.5
12.4
13.5
17.5
Martes
10.3
12.4
13.5
14.5
16.5
17.8
16.5
19.4
12.5
16.3
17.4
12.3
12.1
10.1
15
16.4
18.1
2.1
23.1
24.1
23.1
20.1
26.5
23.4
20.1
23.4
22.1
16.4
18.2
19.3
16.2
16.4
17.3
18.2
19.3
17.1
16.2
16.4
16.2
18.3
18.1
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
12.4
16.2
14.2
15.5
16.1
14
20.1
22.3
16.4
13.4
19.2
20.5
16.4
12.4
13.2
18.4
16.5
20
28.4
27.3
29.4
30
23.4
26.1
20.1
25.4
26.1
20.4
23.1
23.5
10.4
12.5
14.3
16.4
18.4
12
13.4
12.4
16
18.1
19.5
30.1
17.5
16.4
12.1
13.4
16.5
12.3
14.5
18.1
16.4
12.3
14.5
18.4
19.6
20
22.4
27.6
18.4
29.4
22.3
24.5
26.5
23.1
22.1
26.4
12.4
17.4
15.3
18.4
16.4
22
15
16.4
17.4
18.5
12.4
13.3
12
18.4
26.4
21.4
29.4
37
20.1
22.3
25
26.1
13
15.2
16.3
14.1
12.5
132
15.4
16.4
20.3
29.1
27.1
25.6
21.5
23.4
26.1
21.5
23.4
12.4
15.3
16.1
17.2
19.3
21.4
22.5
10.1
13.3
14.2
17.3
19.4
16
14.5
12.4
17.3
13.1
14.3
16.5
17.4
19.5
13.5
10.3
18.5
13.4
16.3
12.5
18.1
19.3
16.4
13.4
12.2
15
16.1
18
16.4
17.1
13
22.1
24.5
26.4
28.1
29.3
30
10.4
12.6
13.4
17.4
19.4
17.3
15.4
12.4
10.2
13.2
14.5
16.3
18.1
20.1
29.3
16
17.1
19.4
16.4
20
21.4
26.1
23.4
12.4
11.2
10.3
14.3
16.5
12.4
13.2
10.4
16.3
19.2
21.5
26.1
27.9
28.3
29.4
26.1
21.4
18.2
13.4
16.2
17.2
12.5
21.2
20
22
24.1
23.1
26
21.5
21.3
15.4
10.3
16.2
18.1
17.3
19.3
10.4
24.5
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
24.5
23.4
16.4
12.4
16.4
12.4
16.4
12.3
19.4
18.5
10.1
11.4
16.4
17.2
15
12.4
20.4
26.4
28.2
29.4
30
23.4
26.5
28.1
29.4
24.1
26.2
27.1
26.4
23.5
22.4
26.5
23.1
10.4
10
16.4
18.4
19.3
20.5
22.3
22.2
14
24.1
25.3
26.1
18.4
19.5
17.1
16.4
15.2
14.3
16.1
18.2
17.2
10
13.2
15.2
17.2
16.3
19.1
20.1
23.5
26.1
22.4
25.2
26.4
28.1
29.5
22.4
23.1
26.5
21.3
23.4
12.5
13.4
17.5
19.2
23.1
22.4
26.1
28.1
29.1
12.4
16.5
12.4
18.3
21.4
13.2
16.2
17.1
18.2
20.1
26.4
23.1
20.1
10.4
13.2
16.3
16
14.5
12.4
13.2
18.4
20.1
16.4
12.4
16.2
19.2
20
24.3
26.5
28.1
23.1
22
24.5
12.3
15.3
16.2
14.3
17.5
16.4
13.4
20
16.4
12.4
16.3
18.4
17.3
16.4
12.2
15.4
10.5
13.4
15.1
13.1
25.5
26.2
25
21.4
10.3
20.1
19.4
13.4
17.2
14.3
10.5
11.4
13.5
16.3
17.2
18.4
19.5
21.5
22.3
24.1
26.1
10.5
13.4
17.5
16.4
21
20.4
15.4
16.4
18.2
19.5
Grafica
38
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
16.5
13.2
23.2
19.2
29.4
26.4
28.4
23.1
28.4
26.4
10.4
10
16.4
17.5
21.2
23.4
28.4
29.1
16.2
12.5
10.4
16.4
18.1
16.2
18.1
20.1
26.3
24.2
28.3
24.6
27
Data Summary
Number of Data Points = 570
Min Data Value
= 2.1
Max Data Value
= 132
Sample Mean
= 18.7
Sample Std Dev
= 7.03
Histogram Summary
Histogram Range
= 2 to 32
Number of Intervals = 23
Al momento de aplicar Fit All el resultado es:
Function
Gamma
Erlang
Lognormal
Beta
Normal
Weibull
Exponential
Triangular
Uniform
Square Error
0.00323
0.00334
0.00482
0.01
0.0169
0.0289
0.191
0.191
0.242
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
Distribution Summary
Distribution : Gamma
Expression : 2 + GAMM(2.12, 7.88)
Square Error : 0.003232
Chi Square Test
Number of Intervals
=5
Degrees of freedom
=2
Test Statistic
= 48.2
Corresponding p-value < 0.005
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
Test Statistic
= 0.0617
Corresponding p-value = 0.025
Data Summary
Number of Data Points = 570
Min Data Value
= 2.1
Max Data Value
= 132
Sample Mean
= 18.7
Sample Std Dev
= 7.03
Histogram Summary
Histogram Range
= 2 to 132
Number of Intervals
= 23
Anlisis
Se tomara la distribucin Gamma por ser la que tiene menor
error cuadrtico.
40
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
41
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
4.
Basic Process
42
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
Common
43
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
44
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
5.
VERIFICACION Y VALIDACION DEL
MODELO
El sistema presento los resultados esperados. A continuacin se
presentan los resultados al ejecutar el simulador por 420 Horas.
Se confirm que las Ventanillas N01 y N03 son los que presentan
problemas de cola.
Se ejecutaron simulaciones de un da y de cinco das para 500
ciudadanos y los resultados fueron similares. Eso nos indica que
estamos ante un simulador estable que permite tomar decisiones
adecuadas.
45
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
6.
ANALISIS DE RESULTADOS
Out
DISCRETE-CHANGE VARIABLES
Identifier
Ciudadano.WIP
OPERADOR01.NumberBusy
OPERADOR01.NumberScheduled
OPERADOR01.Utilization
OPERADOR03.NumberBusy
OPERADOR03.NumberScheduled
OPERADOR03.Utilization
Ventanilla
01.Queue.NumberInQueue
Entrega Ticket
sellado.Queue.NumberInQueue
Ventanilla
03.Queue.NumberInQueue
Averag
e
11.057
.25361
.30000
.25361
.24542
.30000
.24542
.99919
Hald Width
(Corr)
(Insuf)
(Insuf)
(Insuf)
(Insuf)
(Insuf)
(Insuf)
(Corr)
Mininu
m
.00000
.00000
.00000
.00000
.00000
.00000
.00000
.00000
Maximu
n
32.000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
5.0000
Final
Value
14.000
.00000
.00000
.00000
.00000
.00000
.00000
2.0000
2.0456
1.0302
.00000
25.000
2.0000
7.5132
1.7691
.00000
29.000
10.000
46
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
7.
RESULTADOS DE LA SIMULACION
Averag
e
Ciudadano.WIP
11.057
OPERADOR01.NumberBusy
.25361
OPERADOR01.NumberSchedul .30000
ed
OPERADOR01.Utilization
.25361
OPERADOR03.NumberBusy
.24542
OPERADOR03.NumberSchedul .30000
ed
OPERADOR03.Utilization
.24542
Ventanilla
.99919
01.Queue.NumberInQueue
Entrega Ticket
2.0456
sellado.Queue.NumberInQueue
Ventanilla
7.5132
03.Queue.NumberInQueue
Hald Width
(Corr)
(Insuf)
(Insuf)
Mininu
m
.00000
.00000
.00000
Maximu
n
32.000
1.0000
1.0000
Final
Value
14.000
.00000
.00000
(Insuf)
(Insuf)
(Insuf)
.00000 1.0000
.00000 1.0000
.00000 1.0000
.00000
.00000
.00000
(Insuf)
(Corr)
.00000 1.0000
.00000 5.0000
.00000
2.0000
1.0302
.00000
25.000
2.0000
1.7691
.00000
29.000
10.000
8.
SUGERENCIAS DE MODIFICACION
AL SISTEMA
47
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
9.
CONCLUSIONES
48
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS
10.
RECOMENDACIONES
11.
AGRADECIMIENTOS
12.
BIBLIOGRAFIA
49
SIMULACION DE SISTEMAS
DISCRETOS